Just dropping a multi-timeframe breakdown of my current EW thesis for SPX, starting from the macro and drilling down to now.
Big Picture (3M View):
We’re still grinding through Grand Super Cycle Wave 3 (GSCW3) that I have starting in the 1932 low till now.
Scoped in look at Super Cycle W4(SCW4)
Super Cycle Wave 4 (SCW4) wrapped up around the ‘08-‘09 housing crash lows. Since then, we’ve been in SCW5, and based on current structure, I believe we’re still early or mid-stage, not near the end.
Zoom-In: SCW5 to Present (Cycle Degree Breakdown):
From the 2009 lows, price action carved out a textbook impulsive structure into what I’m labeling as Cycle Wave 1 (CW1), which likely topped out ~Dec 2024.
The correction that followed has the characteristics of an Expanded Flat:
A-B-C structure where Wave C just completed around April 7th.
This structure, in my view, forms Wave W of a potential WXY complex for CW2.
Now we’re either in:
The early stages of Wave X, targeting the 0.618 retracement zone of W (marked on the chart),
Or, X has already completed in a shorter move.
Alt (Low-Probability) Scenario:
There’s a slim case that the ABC (now W) correction was all of CW2 — given how it wicked into a deep, low-probability Fib zone (gray box).
If we get a clear impulsive move above that 0.618 area, I’ll pay closer attention to this alt — but for now, I’m leaning toward more downside after this X-wave finishes (if it hasn't already).
EW interpretations evolve, but this is my current working roadmap
Big Picture (3M View):
We’re still grinding through Grand Super Cycle Wave 3 (GSCW3) that I have starting in the 1932 low till now.
Scoped in look at Super Cycle W4(SCW4)
Super Cycle Wave 4 (SCW4) wrapped up around the ‘08-‘09 housing crash lows. Since then, we’ve been in SCW5, and based on current structure, I believe we’re still early or mid-stage, not near the end.
Zoom-In: SCW5 to Present (Cycle Degree Breakdown):
From the 2009 lows, price action carved out a textbook impulsive structure into what I’m labeling as Cycle Wave 1 (CW1), which likely topped out ~Dec 2024.
The correction that followed has the characteristics of an Expanded Flat:
A-B-C structure where Wave C just completed around April 7th.
This structure, in my view, forms Wave W of a potential WXY complex for CW2.
Now we’re either in:
The early stages of Wave X, targeting the 0.618 retracement zone of W (marked on the chart),
Or, X has already completed in a shorter move.
Alt (Low-Probability) Scenario:
There’s a slim case that the ABC (now W) correction was all of CW2 — given how it wicked into a deep, low-probability Fib zone (gray box).
If we get a clear impulsive move above that 0.618 area, I’ll pay closer attention to this alt — but for now, I’m leaning toward more downside after this X-wave finishes (if it hasn't already).
EW interpretations evolve, but this is my current working roadmap
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.