S&P 500 - has sentiment shifted?
US stock index futures were firmer in early trade this morning. It remains to be seen if history repeats the market action from Wednesday and Monday, when early gains evaporated as the sessions progressed. Yesterday’s price action saw all the US majors rally early on, before reversing sharply later in the day. Tech stocks were hardest hit. NVIDIA ended the day 3.4% lower, while Apple (-0.8%), Microsoft (-1.2%), Amazon (-1.4%), Meta (-1.4%) and Tesla (-1.8%) all contributed to weakness in the NASDAQ 100. Netflix was also weaker yesterday, falling 1.1%, ahead of its earnings report after tonight’s close. But stock indices did manage to rally off their lows following a relatively positive Fed Beige Book for March. This showed an improvement in financial conditions, with growth rising in ten out of the twelve Fed districts, up from eight out of twelve in February. Despite this, it feels as if we’re in a transition stage between relentless bullishness to a more bearish feel to market sentiment. Ever since the latest leg of the rally began last October, bad news has been shrugged off while good news has been disproportionately rewarded. It now feels as if the polarities are on the cusp of reversing. This has come as the prospect of imminent monetary stimulus in the form of a series of Fed rate cuts this year has been watered down substantially. In fact, concerns have increased recently that the Fed may be forced to hike rates first in another attempt to crush inflation, rather than give the markets what they want in the form of looser monetary policy. The next big test for the market is the first quarter earnings season. Next week could be key when five of the ’Magnificent Seven’ announce results.
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