AI's Cool, but will there be a rug pull?
Updated
I've seen a lot of people bearish on AI stocks hate a lot on things like ChatGPT or AI image tools. I think they're awesome.
But is the AI rally setting up a rug pull?
Let's look at the evidence to suggest there might be. In this post I'm going to cover lots of the rug pull setups pending over the markets.
Note: These are patterns that are expected to create rug pulls if successful. Failure of them usually implies strong counter move. If these signals fail I've bias towards parabolic moves.
AIQ. An ETF for AI. Looks like the textbook harmonic top.
Matching with the huge versions of this in indices.
Read the below price for a more in depth explanation of what we can expect from harmonic patterns.
NVDA is the poster boy for the AI rally and NVDA is now getting into the area where even a really bullish forecast I think would be calling for a correction. Below is an Elliot forecast on NVDA at 500. Forecasting a high around 1,000 with a bit of spike tolerance. In that forecast, this would put in the ABC correction somewhere around here.
tradingview.com/mighchart/NVDA/AAOaCLty-NVDA-Elliot-Possibility/
In a more bearish forecast NVDA could be in a mega bubble and have a long way down.
SMCI has been getting a lot of attention from it's hyper impressive gains, but might this be a butterfly top?
Everyone got so excited about AI that even IBM went up. For the first time in a decade.
But might that be a bat/crab?
These are all big red flags and it's important to note the nature of harmonics is a complex structure. Four swings have to happen and start and end exactly where they do for the harmonic pattern to form. Now we have all of these big structures coming together on lots of big charts all at the same time.
That's notable!
When lots of big harmonics form something is going to happen. Either there's going to be a spectacular failure in which we should expect to see markets even stronger than they've been recently or we're heading into a brutal rug pull setup. In almost all instances big harmonics resolve like this. Boom if they break, bust if they work.
Then we have things like the BTC trend breaking for the first time ever in 2022. Now being up to spots where there'd be a big rug pull reversal if it turned out there'd actually been a change in trend in BTC and we were in a huge bull trap.
ETH still trades around the classic bull trap levels of 76-86 retracements.
Final spike patterns from 2022 bull analysis hitting.
Hitting on the indices.
SPX
In the Darling stocks.
AAPL
The small caps.
Even the things people loved to hate, like CNVA.
And all of this is happening inside the context of market previously going parabolic on rising interest rates. A condition that has happened before every instance of a major indices crash in the last 40 years.
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And the best of it is ... no one cares. Everything things everything is just dandy.
Now, it might be. The failure of the confluence of bear signals we have right now would seem to be most dandy indeed - but this is a risky zone!
We have a lot of conditions warning us a rug pull might come.
But is the AI rally setting up a rug pull?
Let's look at the evidence to suggest there might be. In this post I'm going to cover lots of the rug pull setups pending over the markets.
Note: These are patterns that are expected to create rug pulls if successful. Failure of them usually implies strong counter move. If these signals fail I've bias towards parabolic moves.
AIQ. An ETF for AI. Looks like the textbook harmonic top.
Matching with the huge versions of this in indices.
Read the below price for a more in depth explanation of what we can expect from harmonic patterns.
NVDA is the poster boy for the AI rally and NVDA is now getting into the area where even a really bullish forecast I think would be calling for a correction. Below is an Elliot forecast on NVDA at 500. Forecasting a high around 1,000 with a bit of spike tolerance. In that forecast, this would put in the ABC correction somewhere around here.
tradingview.com/mighchart/NVDA/AAOaCLty-NVDA-Elliot-Possibility/
In a more bearish forecast NVDA could be in a mega bubble and have a long way down.
SMCI has been getting a lot of attention from it's hyper impressive gains, but might this be a butterfly top?
Everyone got so excited about AI that even IBM went up. For the first time in a decade.
But might that be a bat/crab?
These are all big red flags and it's important to note the nature of harmonics is a complex structure. Four swings have to happen and start and end exactly where they do for the harmonic pattern to form. Now we have all of these big structures coming together on lots of big charts all at the same time.
That's notable!
When lots of big harmonics form something is going to happen. Either there's going to be a spectacular failure in which we should expect to see markets even stronger than they've been recently or we're heading into a brutal rug pull setup. In almost all instances big harmonics resolve like this. Boom if they break, bust if they work.
Then we have things like the BTC trend breaking for the first time ever in 2022. Now being up to spots where there'd be a big rug pull reversal if it turned out there'd actually been a change in trend in BTC and we were in a huge bull trap.
ETH still trades around the classic bull trap levels of 76-86 retracements.
Final spike patterns from 2022 bull analysis hitting.
Hitting on the indices.
SPX
In the Darling stocks.
AAPL
The small caps.
Even the things people loved to hate, like CNVA.
And all of this is happening inside the context of market previously going parabolic on rising interest rates. A condition that has happened before every instance of a major indices crash in the last 40 years.
=============================================================================
And the best of it is ... no one cares. Everything things everything is just dandy.
Now, it might be. The failure of the confluence of bear signals we have right now would seem to be most dandy indeed - but this is a risky zone!
We have a lot of conditions warning us a rug pull might come.
Note
Warly cracks appearing. Still too early to read too much into this, but these are warnings. If it happened, these are things you'd look at after the fact and thing you should have noticed.
SMCI rejects the attempted breakout.
Note
Nvidia has had various scandals reported publicly in term of how it does business. I know people who are very sharp people who seem to have put in a lot of research that swear Nvidia is the next Enron. I've not fact checked all the things they say so I won't commit to any opinion on that one way or the other. But one does have to wonder what would happen if it turned out NVDA was a lot of smoke and mirrors.
Note
Things continue to progress. We're now at major support levels. In a bullish scenario we'd be expecting to see a low here in SPX 5000 or so. If that breaks then things really are progressing towards a possible rug pull.
Note
NVDA has flattened out and if a break is made I think it's going to 740 in the next swing. Much lower if that breaks (First time or some time later). Note
SMCI looks terrible. Down 30% off the butterfly high pattern. Currently trades at a really important support. If we do not make a low some time in the very near future in SMCI I think the implied break target is around 500.
Note
SMCI not subtle in the slightest, Formed the sell pattern and down 18% the next day. 
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