False Breakdown in the S&P 500?

Early this year, we covered the false breakout in the S&P 500. Now the opposite may have taken place: a false breakdown.

Notice how prices dipped yesterday to their lowest level since mid-June. They blitzed through support from early October and July, before reversing to close slightly positive. That kind of testing below support, followed by a quick rebound back above it, is a potential sign of the bears retreating for now.

How to explain the recent violent selloff? Worries about the Federal Reserve are clearly one issue, but another factor could be the concentrated news cycle. After all, investors had to cope with Fed meetings in both December and January – without many any break from corporate earnings. Throw in a few million omicron cases and tensions over Ukraine, and you had a depressing environment emotionally.

But how long will the gloomy winds blow? Jerome Powell speaks his piece tomorrow afternoon and exits stage left. Then comes Elon Musk and then Tim Cook, followed by Sundar Pichai and Mark Zuckerberg next week. We also hear from Satya Nadella this evening. That flood of earnings (about half the S&P by the end of next week) could dispel the recent bleakness.

Still, SPX has broken the trendline beginning in October 2020. It also took out the 200-day simple moving average. The result could be a period of consolidation as the Fed begins its hawkish work.

Traders may watch the early-December lows around 4500 as the next important resistance and prepare for a few months of chopping around. (Remember the first rate hike is expected in March.)

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