Short

Updated

The End & The Beginning

This will be our final public post

The collapse of modern society and capitalism has begun

We must focus on preparation

May you all be safe

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Market crash in progress

Buckle Up

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IWM headed for a crash

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GET READY FOR A DECADE OF PAIN AT THE GAS PUMP

HOME ENERGY COSTS ABOUT TO SKYROCKET

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SAFE HAVEN TIME

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Ok looks like we were wrong...for now

The market decided to change its mind on crashing right now and instead head to new all time highs

A pullback is imminent so looking for the Fed news this week to provide a catalyst for that move lower

How that move takes shape will decide the rest of 2024 and beyond

With that said even if we get new ATHs the ultimate fate of the market is the same...a depression level environment that sees the S&P500 at sub-2000 levels.

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if we get new ATHs this is where we should top

Again, new ATHs do not change the ultimate destination...just means we decline from a higher price.

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Looking for an extremely imminent pullback in the S&P

Ideally 1st support will hold and then we head higher to new ATHs

Ultimately the 2nd support needs to hold if we want to see those new ATHs

Any sustained break of the 2nd support opens the door to much larger sustained downside risk

BUT REMEMBER: Even if we get new ATHs the destination over the next 5-8 years is SUB 2000 with expected levels reaching as low as 666-1500 spx

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If Support holds then we should head toward ATHs

If Support breaks we will head towards 4600

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Highly suggest you take note of the Targeted Topping Zone

Market structure is suggesting that we may not get too far above that zone on this move.

In fact we may not break that zone at all

Essentially we are saying if you look at what we have been predicting with the broad markets price may not touch this zone again for a decade

Trying to sound the alarm here

We sincerely hope this analysis is wrong because we are not sure the vast majority of people understand the true nature of what we are facing in this country and throughout the world

Please Please Please get prepared

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Get Ready!

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Tweaked the targets a bit

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ALERT!!!

The break of the 5100 level today and the move lower is the huge sign that a major top has been established in the market

BUT even if new All time highs are made we still think the market will find a major ceiling between 5300 and 5400

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Near term expectations

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Lets see how this plays out

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Market generally progressing as expected.

Its possible all of Wave (C) is complete but the market appears to still want to rally a bit

Lets see

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Zooming out a bit to better see the move we are tracking

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Ok its pretty clear to us where price is most likely headed

Slightly tweaked the count.

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CRITICAL MARKET SUPPORT AREAS

The market appears to be setting up for a significant downturn

We are expecting that downturn to begin by the end of this week/ early next week

This could be really ugly

PLEASE TAKE CAUTION

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CRASH ALERT!!!

BE CAREFUL!!!

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One last push higher and we should see price fall off a cliff

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IWM about to go down in flames!!!

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Ok we are in the target crash zone.

We are on high alert for a significant downturn...i certainly hope we are wrong because this going to be UGLY

Expect one more smaller push higher and then watch out below

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Price pushed higher as expected.

BE CAREFUL!

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Get Ready

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Lets see if we are early on this call...

A break above Wave 2 would invalidate this

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Ok with that immediate count invalidated then it looks like our terminal top is directly above

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WELL CANT SAY WE DIDNT WARN YOU

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Ok based on the latest price action this should be our first major support area

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Tweaked the targets based on latest price action

We expect tomorrow and the rest of the week to be very volatile

BE CAREFUL!!

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Perspective:

On our Dec 12th 2023 post we called out the price region we are currently in as a MAJOR TOPPING ZONE.

We have done our best to zero in on a more exact level- (i.e. our Targeted Topping Zone regions).

The fact of the matter is that even if we make a new high, we see much greater risk being Long than Short.

Our posts are showing what we think is the most likely path that price will follow but of course we, nor anyone else, knows the exact future.

This is all about weighing probabilities and taking action in accordance with the most likely path that price will follow.

Good trading to all!

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IWM as we predicted

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Thinking price should hold around this level before continuing lower

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Price trying to fill the gap...

Still looking lower ultimately

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More precisely

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Still looking lower

Will have to tweak this count if price breaks over Wave 2 but even then still looking lower

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Price is in a corrective mode right now with the potential to make a new high (as mentioned this morning when we clarified our perspective)

The Terminal Top region is still MAJOR resistance with our anticipation that price will not break substantially over that region

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Near term (i.e. tomorrow) expect price to gap down at open and then almost definitely move higher to make another local high over 5200 BUT that will most likely be it for this move up. We DO NOT anticipate price making a new all time high.

Expect the ensuing downturn to be extremely volatile and swift..something akin to what we saw in the Covid crash

Lets zoom out to better understand how we are seeing the chart and why:

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Ok price moving as expected...anticipating this making it to the terminal top area and then it should move lower

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Latest view

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Ok price is at target.

High risk here for a swift move down

BE CAREFUL!!

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Looks like an Ending Diagonal has formed

If so then price shouldnt make another high meaning this is the top

Lets see!

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Well we did say volatility was on the menu

And of course the market performs a nice stick-save and pops higher at the lowest probability point...but it changes absolutely nothing.

All of our target regions are still being respected and this market is going down

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Zooming out from here as any marginal higher highs wont change the analysis (possibility of one last micro push to the 5215 - 5220 region)

In alignment with our big picture view we are looking down from here and await a good short entry point to begin establishing a position

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Ending Diagonal pattern being tracked

As the name suggests this should mark an end to this move

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Moving basically as we thought.

Still looking lower from here

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We will most like consolidate until the CPI report (i think we all anticipate that coming in red hot)...

Thinking we will see some fireworks

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Ole Powell is hopeful as always.

But ask yourself this question: What incentive does he have to tell you things are really bad out here? Answer: None

In our view the greater risk right now is being LONG this market...good luck if you are

Nothing guaranteed of course but man this chart is bearish

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Well WE WERE WRONG about the market NOT making new ATHs

Doesnt change the direction or analysis...

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Money where mouth is..lets see how wrong we are in the overall analysis

Order waiting to be executed (will trigger roughly when price breaks 5280)

Going to start building a position

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Blow off top of a blow top...

One more high and that should be it (FINALLY!!!)

But why wouldnt we expect a Bull market thats been raging since 2009 to go out without a fight lol

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Ok there it is

IF YOU ARE LONG PLEASE THINK ABOUT TAKING SOME PROFIT...

BE CAREFUL

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Money where mouth

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Position building time

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PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT:

This is for the ridiculous expectations we see by a small minority in the comments(people who OWN their OWN trading will understand why we are doing this PSA)

These are IDEAS- NOT financial advice- Tradingview has that disclaimer on every idea post for a reason

We are simply small retail traders who love this trading game and like to share our ideas.

We are not, can not and will never be able to predict with certainty where price is going- and neither can anyone else

Before you get to shouting in the comments about how wrong a call we made is..POST YOUR OWN IDEA AND SHOW THE WORLD WHATS THE RIGHT CALL

An idea is NOT a trade recommendation...if you want to know our positions..which is what you should be asking about BEFORE you take action on one of our ideas...YOU SHOULD ASK

Simply said: we have our ideas and then we have our positions..two separate things smh

Almost every person in the comments with these unrealistic expectations never has any posts or ideas of their own

If you need someone else to tell you what to BUY/SELL you might want to reconsider trading.

So for the very small minority who this post is for, while we cannot and will not give out financial advice, we do offer some life advice:

Develop an INTERNAL locus of control-your trading will thank you

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Why have we been saying the Bull Market is over? And why are we looking so low?

Ok this is going to get technical so google is your friend on this one:

In our posting history you see us really calling out that a top is near around Nov 2023 because at the time the size of the larger degree B wave was 61.8% the size of the lower degree B wave

Essentially the fractal nature of the market queued us to begin looking for a top.

Once a new local high was made we begin calling out the possibility of new ATHs with the likely target area being between 5000 and 5500 w/ the 5100 area equating to a 1:1 relationship with the lower degree wave B

Target zones were marked strategically as high as 5500 because as we said we expect the larger degree waves to be larger

And ever since we have been tracking price and trying to get a more defined target

Our ideas and posts are calling out whats probable...our trades however are always (at least we try to be) in line with trend

So NO, we have NOT been LONG since Oct/Nov smh

We have been strategically getting in and out of trades in BOTH directions.

We are going to show just that in our Watch Us Trade A Bear Market post.

Its way more to how we trade and see the market but hopefully this clarifies..

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WHY DID WE TAKE A SHORT POSITION TODAY?

Chart explains it

And if Elliott Wave isnt your thing or you think its too subjective or just plain nonsense....then maybe when you see how people are going to get absolutely BURNED by this move up today you will take another look...

Could we be wrong? of course

But we dont think we are so we put our money where our mouth is.

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We went short at roughly the red line yesterday.

Lets see what happens

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Please Dont Be Greedy..TAKE SOME PROFIT

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Remember this level...you may not see it again for a long time

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Another drop lower in 3...2...1

just kidding...looking lower still

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Ok next targets...

And YES WE ARE STILL SHORTING...

As we said yesterday..THESE posts are more than just ideas because we have active positions..and are building them as we go down

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Would you look at that...

As we said:

There is a difference between these Big Idea type posts that we make...and the way we trade those ideas..

And we are about to keep showing it

STILL LOOKING LOWER

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Oh and as we said yesterday

We went short at the red dotted line yesterday...and today we have been shorting since the top of Wave 2

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As expected.....now we are looking for a 3 wave corrective move back up

As with all elliott wave analysis we have an alternative view as well..

If the target above doesnt hold then we would temporarily look higher to the 5400 level as we called out in our MARCH 28th post which is the same zone we called out DEC 12th of last year..

BUT even if that happens the result is the same- MAJOR DOWNTURN

Like we said...we are trading now so we are executing within our ideas...when we are trading we ALWAYS have an alternative perspective and know when our analysis is invalidated...

We will define better targets as the move back higher progresses

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We are already short the market in various ways but posting this IDEA aka setup...for Traders who own their own trading and see the power in this POTENTIAL price action

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As we said we are seeing the market as immediately bearish BUT like we also said new highs are new highs and there is the potential (although much less probable) that we make one more high with a potential final top around 5400 (5350ish))

As for Monday we are tracking 2 counts upon further review.

We see price as either dropping aggressively pretty quickly Monday (white count) or making it a little higher before the drop (orange count)

Any price movement above 5325 would have us looking to one last top around 5400...before continuing to look much lower

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Guess the orange count wins...so far

Nvidia earnings will be the catalyst...Thur/Fri should see some nice volatility

The question is what direction? Guess we will see

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Thinking Nvidia pops higher regardless of what they state in their earnings

Thinking market will pop marginally higher make a new ATH and then head lower.

The alternative is NO new ATH and head lower..

The destination is the same..

Lets see

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Chart above tells the story for the next couple days and into next week.

The price movement and volume in particular over the last day or so shows price most likely will pop higher but the level of buying will not support the move and we will see a major reversal

Lets see!

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Morning!

Market moving as expected.

Should open higher but dont see the move picking up truly bullish steam

Watching for an aggressive reversal sooner than later

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And thats what we meant by aggressive reversal

Moving as expected.

Thinking we see one more low towards 5245 and then a pull back up towards 5270ish and then we will reaccess..should that move tomorrow

Lets see!

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Ok thinking resistance will hold this week and we continue on a downward path

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Ok still watching the same support and resistance areas

Definitely have a bearish bias but lets see what tomorrow brings

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Ok not much to say here

Price is playing ping with support and resistance

Still looking lower

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Well well well...

The market is NOT looking good.

We have been on high alert for a while that this Bull market is running out of steam..

We are looking MUCH lower ultimately but lets take it one level at a time

Lets see!

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One more push higher into resistance and the bottom should fall out..

Lets see!

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Nothings changed

Still looking MUCH lower

Lets see!

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Market taking its time

Tons of resistance up here so the bulls have some tough sledding ahead if they want the ball back

Still looking lower

Lets see..

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Should start our trek lower now

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BIG PICTURE UPDATE:

We first publicly called out the Major Topping Zone shown on the chart on Dec 12th 2023

We have called out that zone multiple times since as where price would ultimately top (see our March 28th 2024 post for example)

All of the calls we have made since Dec 12th has been us trying to call a top within our already called out topping zone

We have consistently called out on charts 5500 as a terminal level for price

NOTHING HAS CHANGED

We see price for all intensive purposes as having topped with the potential for a small peak above 5500

What this means is that we are shorting the market at this point and hedging any long moves up

Yes our SPX shorts are technically down slightly but as we said they are hedged

Alternatively, our DOW, Russell, RSP shorts are UP..and they are up because the market as a whole is weak!

So as the chart indicates we STRONGLY feel that 3800 SPX is the destination for the market over the next year

BUCKLE UP!!!

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We are about to witness a yield EXPLOSION

Yields should head to below 3.5% over the next year and then expect a meteoric rise throughout the end of the decade

Ask yourself this question:

What would have to be going on in our economy for yields to explode to these levels?

You may fancy us crazy/permabears/etc but 5 years from now you can best believe we are going to reference this post...and we will even if we are wrong...but we dont think we are..

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Finally...maybe lol

As we have been saying and we last said in our Jun 15th post 5500 is a major topping level in the market

In that same Jun 15th post we highlighted that the market would had the potential to make a small pop above 5500..which we have now seen

We are of course still mainly short the market with as we said a few hedges in place to protect those positions..

Not financial advice of course but we have been positioning ourselves broadly to the short side and you are about to find out why

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We hope you have eyes on the VIX

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Are you watching the VIX?

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As the Banks go..so does the Market

XLF should touch the 43 level this week by Wed

What will follow is going to be an EPIC move down

PREDICTION: XLF will end the month significantly lower than where it is today

B U C K L E UP

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This move up in the IWM is a mirage

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Bond market HEATING UP

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Bye Bye Dow

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Chips cant save the market...yet lol

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Expect Initial Jobless Claims to rise SIGNIFICANTLY over the next year

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Inline with the jobless claims we expect unemployment to continue to move up

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We expect inflation to continue to fall with it bottoming around 2.10ish/ 2.20ish

And then we expect a significant increase in inflation

This is inline with our expectation that the Bond Market will conversely heat-up then crash and yields will drop then explode

B U C K L E U P

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We expect to see a significant drop in Job Openings which is in line with unemployment and jobless claims expectations over the next year

B U C K L E U P

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This is how we see this playing out:

Near term bullish/bearish expectations defined

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As expected now lets see what happens from here

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As expected now lets see what happens next

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From our June 13th post

Today- as expected

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Ok we broke support and moved lower which is a major hint that the market may now not want to head to new ATHs

Anticipating a move back to around the 5450 area which will be a major inflection point for the market overall

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SPX should continue higher based on VIX

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As expected

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WARNING

SPX has reached a critical junction

The recent breaks of support have opened the door to the TOP being in

We SPX as having 3 potential paths at this point:

1- price returns to the Critical Market Pivot region setting up a drop to 4800-5000

2- price returns to the Critical Market Pivot region and then makes a move to new ATHs around 5800

3- price drops from current levels and DOES NOT return to the Critical Market Pivot region and heads down to 4800-5000

All of these scenarios point to the same conclusion:

SPX IS NEARING OR HAS ALREADY COMPLETED A MAJOR TOP

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IWM

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Bonds set to explode

Yields will continue to aggressively fall

Rate cuts are imminent

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One last push for the DJI and we should see a Major Top established

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