SPX long term idea
Updated
Hi traders, my view is always long term. So keep in mind this is a 3month chart.
Whats intresting to look at is the 3month chart with the 21MA,
If we look at the avrage if it breaks, its usally a bloodbath.
I am watching this level closely and if price breaks below the oods of a big % drops increase.
The current drop of 20% is nothing and is a normal correction in any market.
A 50% drop is also normal in any healthy market, 50% takes us to the corona lows.
A big drop 80% or more is a big recession and bad times, it will take us to the dobbel top of 2000s and 2008s.
My play with stocks and indices is to not trade it at all, the downside is to great, and i think most traders think the same,
there for its not happening, this is the most forcasted recession in history and the main stream media is also pushing the idea.
Thefor it can not happen now i belive.
We need the same elements that cused the drop, black swan events, prices out of controll, big inflation.
If the situation in ukraine escaltes to a big war, and we have drought and cold winters not to mention
if anything happens in middel east or china/taiwan. Prices will move out of controll.
If we get energy inflation over the long run its going to be bad again, the short term fixes in the supply side
is because of US elections. Longer term the supply demand is not in balance.
My call on this is to not trade it, its tight range, the risk is big and commodities have better fundamentals,
based on global strategy on carbon we have created a scenario where mines, oil, gas is not being explored
while demand gets ever bigger. I am playing commodities and commodity exposed stocks or etf.
Hopefully it helped.
Whats intresting to look at is the 3month chart with the 21MA,
If we look at the avrage if it breaks, its usally a bloodbath.
I am watching this level closely and if price breaks below the oods of a big % drops increase.
The current drop of 20% is nothing and is a normal correction in any market.
A 50% drop is also normal in any healthy market, 50% takes us to the corona lows.
A big drop 80% or more is a big recession and bad times, it will take us to the dobbel top of 2000s and 2008s.
My play with stocks and indices is to not trade it at all, the downside is to great, and i think most traders think the same,
there for its not happening, this is the most forcasted recession in history and the main stream media is also pushing the idea.
Thefor it can not happen now i belive.
We need the same elements that cused the drop, black swan events, prices out of controll, big inflation.
If the situation in ukraine escaltes to a big war, and we have drought and cold winters not to mention
if anything happens in middel east or china/taiwan. Prices will move out of controll.
If we get energy inflation over the long run its going to be bad again, the short term fixes in the supply side
is because of US elections. Longer term the supply demand is not in balance.
My call on this is to not trade it, its tight range, the risk is big and commodities have better fundamentals,
based on global strategy on carbon we have created a scenario where mines, oil, gas is not being explored
while demand gets ever bigger. I am playing commodities and commodity exposed stocks or etf.
Hopefully it helped.
Note
We are wrong if it breaks the high and and runs. Nothing wrong in being wrong, the important thing is to protect your capital at all cost. As warren bufft says, rule 1,2,3:
1: Not lose money
2. Not lose money
3. Not lose money
Note
I post my short term idea when i my system generates thge signals. Fallow and like, it will help me share my ideas. Hopefully novice traders understand that making animal patterns on chart is not the only way to make money. No billionaire do that.Note
Note
Another intresting timeperiod is the inflation in the 1970s. History is never the same but it often have similarities. I think its intresting overlay, that will take us to the corona low.Note
I belive mybe a breakout is a scenario if the trendline gets broken. This will turn the mood and trick novice taders long, while smart money are offloading contracts and putting the pressure on with shorts.Will be intresting to watch, You can play VIX if you belive turmoil is coming. Check my VIX idea. So far we have styed out of trouble got to levels, only thing that is missing on some trades is evidence of dollar turnaround, and COT confirming that smart money is doing the same. After that we gotten most calls right.
Note
Note
Somethign to wtch, rejected at the trendline again.Note
My cycle system is predicting that alot of indices will have declines until june.Note
We will get a tradable low in february. Right now the range is tight, and risk is to big. Let the market establish a clear trend again.Note
The breakout is happening late in the SPX intermediate cycle. I dont belive it will be sustainable. Its risky to be long this late in a cycle.Note
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