if the price close over the channel that means wave 5 is actually done / to make sure we need to reclaim the resistance around 3700 / going above wave 4 will make me 99% sure that we will have a good bounce.
another scenario is wave 5 is not done yet
Zoom out
scenario 1
scenario 2
scenario 3
I'm watching the confirmation for the second scenario / the first & second scenarios are very similar and take us in the same direction at the end
the 3rd scenario is the bullish one I will wait for confirmation then I will make an update
overall I'm bearish but yeah there's a chance for a bounce in the mid-term
another scenario is wave 5 is not done yet
Zoom out
scenario 1
scenario 2
scenario 3
I'm watching the confirmation for the second scenario / the first & second scenarios are very similar and take us in the same direction at the end
the 3rd scenario is the bullish one I will wait for confirmation then I will make an update
overall I'm bearish but yeah there's a chance for a bounce in the mid-term
Note
30m frame S&P futures
for now, it looks like a corrective wave, not an impulse
Note
The more powerful the relief rally gets, the more brutally it will get retraced.Note
look like scenario 1 is active but there is still a chance for scenario 2 to playthe last move may be a flat wave that continues rising or the beginning of wave 3 from 5
by the market closing today we will know more
Note
This is how the flat wave could look likeI will go on with this scenario, it's the same idea as scenario 2 above
Note
usually wave B takes the same time or less than A to completedit took 5-6 days for A
the wave C which contains 5 waves will take longer
don't expect a big relief rally
~3900 will be a good resistance
if you want to know why I chose scenario 2 read the text at the beginning of this idea
Note
it was a pretty crazy dayI will show you my idea for the previous & next micro-movements
I detailed the wave B which has 3 movements inside (a,b,c) so I think the wave b is a flat wave inside bi / expanded flat to be clear
Note
To make it more understandableNote
the last update failedit was going good until it went above the red line
anyway that was a micro-movement the main idea is scenario 2 in the beginning
I will put the chart here
Note
this is how the micro scenario look this A,B,C is a part of wave 2
look at the last update to understand
Note
alphabet Earning & Revenue is after 35m + Microsoft I don't think google E & R will be bullish
There is another scenario besides the one above but I didn't share it cuz the movement is more bullish
the other scenario is we are forming 5 waves from A
for now, the micro scenario is the chart in the previous update
Note
quick update the movement is still in the scenario range
still active
Note
UPDATETrade closed: stop reached
I'm still bearish this is a micro move, properly the last corrective didn't finish (wave 2)
I will make an update soon as possible
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.