S&P 500 INDEX 04 nov 2022 Long Term Analysis (Daily Time Frame)
Hi everyone,
Here is my 04 November 2022 long term S&P 500 INDEX analysis. #SPX
To date ( 04 Nov 2022) I have deduced that the market offers two scenarios. The first one (the most likely one in view of the geopolitical and economic conditions from a macroeconomic point of view) would be a continuation of the decline. I have estimated this scenario to have an 80% chance of success, either from a technical point of view or 25 out of 26 indicators are either neutral or bearish. Or from a macro economic point of view where today we have just learned that the unemployment rate is back on the rise (3.7%).
The second scenario, less likely, would be to follow the rise of the second half of October, then succeed in reversing the trend and breaking the descending channel in order to resume a long-term uptrend. 20% chance of success.
RED SCENARIO:
Personally and in view of the different technical and economic factors I think that the red scenario has a better chance of being realized.
It is not unlikely in the coming months that we will return to test the support area of $3550 or even that we break it to continue the decline. The economic conditions to continue the decline are mostly met, they will remain to break with high volume down this support area while remaining in the channel.
Once this support zone is broken, we have a very high probability of testing the support line of $3235 and why not that of $3000.
However, beware of the latter, which is a psychological level that is very popular with traders.
And finally if the conditions have not improved by then, or even worse have deteriorated. We could "maybe" have a continuation of the decline to the low reached during the covid, ie to the resistance zone of $2250
This final hypothesis is really to be taken lightly.
BLUE SCENARIO:
Much less evident the blue scenario is still not impossible, it would require however many conditions which are for the moment not present.
The first and most important would be global economic conditions (Decrease of embargoes with Russia, Decrease of interest rates, Decrease of inflation, Decrease of unemployment rates etc...)
Secondly and simultaneously it would be necessary that the technical indicators begin to consider a reversal (Important RSI divergence in Daily see in weekly, crossing of the mobile averages etc...)
And thirdly, and strongly helped by the first two conditions, the price should break the bearish channel with high volume to consider a possible reversal.
During this break we would have a strong chance to observe a reversal pattern and probably a strong RSI divergence.
If all these conditions are met, then we could envisage a long-term upward turnaround.
Conclusion:
For now the S&P500 is bearish and has a strong chance to continue its fall in this bearish channel, however we do not lose hope to see a reversal happen in a few months/years. For that we will have to respect some conditions but as we know in the financial markets, nothing is impossible.
If you have any questions, I remain at your disposal in the comment space.
Here is my 04 November 2022 long term S&P 500 INDEX analysis. #SPX
To date ( 04 Nov 2022) I have deduced that the market offers two scenarios. The first one (the most likely one in view of the geopolitical and economic conditions from a macroeconomic point of view) would be a continuation of the decline. I have estimated this scenario to have an 80% chance of success, either from a technical point of view or 25 out of 26 indicators are either neutral or bearish. Or from a macro economic point of view where today we have just learned that the unemployment rate is back on the rise (3.7%).
The second scenario, less likely, would be to follow the rise of the second half of October, then succeed in reversing the trend and breaking the descending channel in order to resume a long-term uptrend. 20% chance of success.
RED SCENARIO:
Personally and in view of the different technical and economic factors I think that the red scenario has a better chance of being realized.
It is not unlikely in the coming months that we will return to test the support area of $3550 or even that we break it to continue the decline. The economic conditions to continue the decline are mostly met, they will remain to break with high volume down this support area while remaining in the channel.
Once this support zone is broken, we have a very high probability of testing the support line of $3235 and why not that of $3000.
However, beware of the latter, which is a psychological level that is very popular with traders.
And finally if the conditions have not improved by then, or even worse have deteriorated. We could "maybe" have a continuation of the decline to the low reached during the covid, ie to the resistance zone of $2250
This final hypothesis is really to be taken lightly.
BLUE SCENARIO:
Much less evident the blue scenario is still not impossible, it would require however many conditions which are for the moment not present.
The first and most important would be global economic conditions (Decrease of embargoes with Russia, Decrease of interest rates, Decrease of inflation, Decrease of unemployment rates etc...)
Secondly and simultaneously it would be necessary that the technical indicators begin to consider a reversal (Important RSI divergence in Daily see in weekly, crossing of the mobile averages etc...)
And thirdly, and strongly helped by the first two conditions, the price should break the bearish channel with high volume to consider a possible reversal.
During this break we would have a strong chance to observe a reversal pattern and probably a strong RSI divergence.
If all these conditions are met, then we could envisage a long-term upward turnaround.
Conclusion:
For now the S&P500 is bearish and has a strong chance to continue its fall in this bearish channel, however we do not lose hope to see a reversal happen in a few months/years. For that we will have to respect some conditions but as we know in the financial markets, nothing is impossible.
If you have any questions, I remain at your disposal in the comment space.
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