SPX - Still within longer term supports
Updated
Despite a difficult last 2 months when both SPX and NDX have formed a potentially bearish Head and Shoulders formation, both are still holding at their respective necklines so far.
Upon zooming out, we could also see that SPX is still trading within its rising channel that was formed since the start of its bull run from Oct 2022.
what transpired so far was a mean reversion to channel support and towards a rising VWAP anchored at a major pivot point on 13 Mar this year (creating next possible supports for SPX at 4260 - 4275 should its H&S neckline be breached).
Similarly, I am seeing that heavyweights like META, AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, TSLA are now sitting on (or near) their respective VWAPs anchored from their respective major pivot low during March or April this year.
Might not be time to be longer term bearish yet unless we see a breach of the rising channel.
On the flip side, markets are still fragile and momentum for any rebound is still lacking and it's best to be cautious until we see a clearer direction over the next few days or even a week or 2.
Disclaimer:
TA is about improving our odds of a successful trade (not a guarantee). This is just my own analysis and opinion for discussion and is NOT a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management (ie trailing stop loss and position sizing) is (probably the most) important!
Take care and Good Luck!
Upon zooming out, we could also see that SPX is still trading within its rising channel that was formed since the start of its bull run from Oct 2022.
what transpired so far was a mean reversion to channel support and towards a rising VWAP anchored at a major pivot point on 13 Mar this year (creating next possible supports for SPX at 4260 - 4275 should its H&S neckline be breached).
Similarly, I am seeing that heavyweights like META, AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, TSLA are now sitting on (or near) their respective VWAPs anchored from their respective major pivot low during March or April this year.
Might not be time to be longer term bearish yet unless we see a breach of the rising channel.
On the flip side, markets are still fragile and momentum for any rebound is still lacking and it's best to be cautious until we see a clearer direction over the next few days or even a week or 2.
Disclaimer:
TA is about improving our odds of a successful trade (not a guarantee). This is just my own analysis and opinion for discussion and is NOT a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management (ie trailing stop loss and position sizing) is (probably the most) important!
Take care and Good Luck!
Note
Risk off right now and erring on the side of bearishness as we have breached the H&S support
and as of yesterday, we have also breached the channel support that defined this bull run that had begun from 13 Oct 2022.
There is a last major support looming up @ 4170 - 4200, which is a confluence of:
- the 200 day MA
- 50% fib retracement of the last major swing AB,
- as well as another horizontal resistence turned support.
A breach of this last major support will be clear the bull is no longer in control.
We could have a bounce in the coming days especially if and when SPX hits into the last zone of support (4170 - 4200). However, watch for possible resistence @ the H&S neckline (4300 - 4330).
While there are still some "strong stocks", they are getting fewer and further in between. Currently market breath is sorely lacking, which is a worrying sign.
The market could start turning bearish with lower highs and lower lows, or it could also consolidate sideways in a wide (volatile) range around the 200 day MA. Meanwhile, wait and see how it will play out.
The case for resumption of a longer term Bull might be stronger if SPX can go above 4400 again.
Disclaimer
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