S&P 500, time to buy? where is the support for 1 day charts
Take noted the below is not an investment advise, bet at your own risk. I am solely not responsible for any of your loses in money or assets.
The Current S&P 500 price is 4320.05 as of 24 September 2023.
The S&P 500 have potential to drop to 3900 to 3850 range in the coming 1.5 months before the Fed's FOMC in November 2023.
The price will hover between 4618.28 to about 3900 within this period.
Potential strong tailwind is the pause of US Fed's rate hike this coming November 2023. This will drive and test the resistance level at 4618.28. If there is a breakout then the next level of weaker resistance based on the dynamic resistance will be at 4804.36.
Potential strong headwind will drive the market to around 3900 because of higher rate for longer by Fed's US. If next 1.5 months down the road if there is other or fews strong headwinds appears then the price might breakout from 3900 and head lower to a weaker support at 3534.39. This is highly unlikely to happen withing next few months as the Fed's is data dependent and also depend of the next 6 months' data to say that they will maintain the Fed's funds rate for longer. Still I think is not clear at the moment that the Fed's need higher for longer for 2 years.
3900 is a very strong support level based on the 1-week chart of S&P 500. I would only start buying a little at 3900 and reassess for 2 to 3 weeks before buying more.
Based on current market condition it is highly unlikely to get a low that surpasses last year October 2022 bottom. However, the future for a US recession is unclear currently as there is both camp of soft landing and a recession.
The Current S&P 500 price is 4320.05 as of 24 September 2023.
The S&P 500 have potential to drop to 3900 to 3850 range in the coming 1.5 months before the Fed's FOMC in November 2023.
The price will hover between 4618.28 to about 3900 within this period.
Potential strong tailwind is the pause of US Fed's rate hike this coming November 2023. This will drive and test the resistance level at 4618.28. If there is a breakout then the next level of weaker resistance based on the dynamic resistance will be at 4804.36.
Potential strong headwind will drive the market to around 3900 because of higher rate for longer by Fed's US. If next 1.5 months down the road if there is other or fews strong headwinds appears then the price might breakout from 3900 and head lower to a weaker support at 3534.39. This is highly unlikely to happen withing next few months as the Fed's is data dependent and also depend of the next 6 months' data to say that they will maintain the Fed's funds rate for longer. Still I think is not clear at the moment that the Fed's need higher for longer for 2 years.
3900 is a very strong support level based on the 1-week chart of S&P 500. I would only start buying a little at 3900 and reassess for 2 to 3 weeks before buying more.
Based on current market condition it is highly unlikely to get a low that surpasses last year October 2022 bottom. However, the future for a US recession is unclear currently as there is both camp of soft landing and a recession.
Note
S&P 500 has reach the 4 hours support level at 4169.32. If there is a breakout the next resistance will be 3900 to 3850. Highly likely to bounce off the 3900 level and head higher to 4618.28.The 4169.32 will hold if the November 2023 Feds meeting has a great good news like indicating the last 25 basis point rate hike. Not hiking anymore this year and next year. This will be a strong tailwind for the market.
However, the looming strong headwind of higher rate for longer after the rate hike pause might come into play in the coming months and the potential of a recession strong headwind. But these are later future strong headwind that might come into play. No certainty at the moment.
Note
The recent S&P 500 bottom is at 4117.36 on 27 October 2023 which is a bit lower than the projected bottom at 4 hours support level at 4169.32. However, my projection is about 98.75% accurate.
The next level of resistance is the 1 days time lag chart at 4618.21. The price action of S&P 500 will properly reach the resistance of 4618.21 in 1 to 2 weeks time.
Trader needs to reassess the price for 2 to 3 weeks before knowing will the price action form a breakout for the price to go uptrend for another 16% about 5357.12.
Note
S&P 500 nearing 4618.21 level from the previous post of 1 day resistance. Price will continue to rise until this level.I will continue to hold until this level is reach and wait for 2 to 3 weeks to reassess the condition before selling or holding the position.
Required no strong headwind from the December 2023 Fed's FOMC to breakout from the 1 day resistance.
Trade closed: target reached
Last Friday the S&P 500 close at 4594.64 about 23 points from the suggested 1 day resistance level. Next week will see the S&P 500 indices to test this level of 4618.21. My previously forecast is correct that the price will reach 4618.21 and test the 1 day resistance level.
Trader should now wait for 3 things before deciding to sell their shares in S&P 500 if they are just trading. The November 2023 CPI, November 2023 job report and most important the December 2023 FOMC meeting outcome and Q&A session indications.
If everything good with a Fed's that is confirm on the pause of the Fed's funds rate, no more rate hike this year and next year. Then the market will rally higher.
Breach of the 4618.21 will definitely happen this month and a potential breakout for a closing day of upside of 2.68% or more. This will cause the S&P 500 to reach the next level at 5357.12 points by next year. Maybe around 1st half of 2024.
Note
The S&P is currently at 4604.36 as of 8 December 2023 very near the suggested 4618.21 1 day chart resistance level. Most likely will breach this level next week or so if there is good new from CPI and Fed's FOMC.Continue to hold until Fed's FOMC before deciding to buy or hold or sell.
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The S&P 500 yesterday closed at 4707.0.8 breaching the 1 day chart resistance level with very good news that the USA Fed's FOMC. Fed's is most likely to cut rate 3 times in 2024. The Fed's is data dependent.Currently the FOMC news is a very strong tailwind for the US S&P 500 market and the index will most likely go higher even there is no breakout in the price action. This is due to the ending of the strong headwinds that the Fed's will not pause and also the Fed's will hold rate higher for longer in 1 year time.
This Strong headwind has turn into a strong tailwind.
Traders should wait for another 2 to 3 weeks before decision to sell or hold or buy more currently to see if there will be a breakout in price of the S&P 500.
Previous forecast of 5357.12 next year is currently potential to happen. Not happening only when there is a new strong headwind appears in the market.
Almost smooth sailing for US S&P 500 in the next year.
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Caution, there is a potential forming of a strong headwind coming to the USA financial market especially S&P 500 and big Nasdaq company with revenue relying from China and Europe.China currently the GDP is slowing and 2024 will not improved much, hence the overall economy is not very helpful to US big companies. Europe is already in recession and will not come out from recession so soon. UK most likely will go into recession soon cause by higher rate for longer. Even cutting rate soon will most likely be a mild recession. This is not an accurate gauge yet but most likely the case.
The revenue number from Europe and China will effect the S&P 500 companies with big exposure to Europe and China. Hence most likely see revenue not beat and decline in Q4 2023.
If most companies take a hit, the S&P 500 index will fall lower rather than go higher in the coming 2024 Q1.
If fall then the next support level is 4431.10.
Will this level bounce back to all time high? not sure yet need to reassess the situation when S&P 500 reach this level. If this strong head wind ends here then this is the bottom. If not end or emergence of other strong headwind then below number is the bottom.
The strongest support 1 week chart at 4005.83, this is the worst case scenario. This might happen in Q2 or early Q3 then re-bounce to 5000 plus if there is not other strong headwind appearing like recession and to few rate cuts or no rate cuts or higher for longer.
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The potential of formation of strong headwind for S&P 500 because of the effect on large company revenue weakness due to slowing down market demand from Europe, UK and China economy will most likely not going to happen. Since 50% of the S&P 500 companies has report with 80% of the companies' beating estimates.The Fear in the market about this strong headwind causes the S&P index to fall to 4688.69. from previous high. Currently as of 9 Feb 2024 the index is at 4997.92. increase another 6.59%.
Due to no potential formation of new strong headwind from current news. The S&P 500 will not drop to 4431.10 as fear from the previous post on 30 Dec 2023.
Very highly unlike going back down to 4005.83.
As posted on Dec 14, 2023 the S&P 500 can reached 5357.12 in this year roughly Q1 or Q2. Currently there is only 1 resistance level left at 1 week resistance 5057.31.
The current strong tailwind of a better-than-expected economy, good and low core PCE number, a strong jobs market and Feds current rates soon will cause to market to breach and continue to move to record high constantly until a strong headwind appear. The peak should be higher than 5357.12 suggested earlier.
Potential strong headwind is US Iran war causing the crude oil price to move higher and making the core PCE number go higher. Potentially making the FEDs job tougher to get to their 2% target inflation.
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The current index level of S&P 500 is at 5096.28 breach the 1-week resistance level at 5057.31 suggested in the previous post and will go higher from here since currently there is only strong tailwind in the market and no strong headwind. Most likely in the current 2 to 3 month's time there will not be a strong headwind and the S&P 500 is most likely will reach 5357.12 in Q1 or in Q2.Long on the S&P 500 index is for sure now until FED's FOMC on 20 March 2024.
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If the sideline cash of USD6.0 trillion with USD2.0 trillion reinvested into S&P 500 the index will reach around 5569.40 in the near term 1 to 2 years time.Trade active
Currently the peak suggestion for S&P 500 5357.12 will hold for the coming few weeks and 1 month or 2. The highest level recorded was 5264.85 in Q1 2024. My projection is 98.27% accurate for the current peak in the S&P 500 index.The resistance level of 5357.12 will hold for this coming few weeks and 1 month or so due to the strong headwind. Higher for longer on USA Fed's funds rate and a potential no rate cut in 2024 and or a possible recession.
Currently the GDP Q1 2024 for USA is around 2.5% for forecast. The economy is strong and suggest that the USA economy will not go into recession but the number of reduce rate cut effect the S&P 500 market currently.
Currently from April 16 to April 26, 2024 the market will most likely go down or side ways due to the first rate cut is delayed to September 2024 from June 2024.
Buy the dip, but where is the bottom?
1) duration from 16 April 2024 to 16 May 2024. the bottom most likely around 4793.64 only when GDP bad, PCE bad and FOMC news bad. 2 rate cuts in 2024.
2) longer terms bottom.
The bottom will be the CME group feds rate cut probability charts. When the rate cut chart updates after the CPI release with the FOMC good news. Saying that the particular month is the most properly month for cut, affirm by the CME charts and FOMC news. This will be the bottom.
What is the magic number for the bottom? might be around 4113.86 in the coming 6 months. This bottom might happen when the following event happen.
1) continue higher CPI for April to July 2024.
2) continue higher PPI for April to July 2024.
3) the two above causing the September rate cut to differ to December 2024 or not rate cut in 2024.
The above will most likely cause a market correction to 4113.86 (assuming no rate cuts in 2024).
3) 4431.10 will be most likely the bottom price when there is only 1 rate cut in 2024.
Note
>>Buy the dip, but where is the bottom?>>1) duration from 16 April 2024 to 16 May 2024. the bottom most likely around >>4793.64 only when GDP bad, PCE bad and FOMC news bad. 2 rate cuts in 2024.
We got a bad GDP number but good PCE and FOMC meeting outcome. Causing the S&P indices to rally to 5127.80.
The S&P 500 will trade between the range of 5000 plus to 5357.12. The price action will possible to retest the 5357.12 range after the CME group Feds watch tool indicating 2 rate cut this year from previous one in December 2024.
All clear to 5357.12 from 3 May 2024 to 10 May 2024 for the CPI read. If CPI, PPI, ECI and PCE reads is bad for this month May 2024. We will be looking at below 4793.64 S&P 500 range.
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The PPI was bad but the CME Fed's watch tool still indicating 2 cut hence the S&P500 rally higher yesterday. Today CPI number cooler than expected then the price again should rally higher by today.Will retest all time high 5264 and the peak for this year suggested by me at 5357.12. If PCE numbers are good, Fed FOMC not hawkish along with super results from Nvidia, the price action might breach 5357.12 and go higher.
All clear up trend until May 22, 2024 for Nvidia reporting on that day.
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Currently there is a strong headwind and strong tailwind is battling out in the S&P 500 market. A classic who wins. Based on Theory the Strong headwind will win. Yesterday was the first day of the battle and the market drop 39.17 on the S&P 500.The Strong headwind wins.
from today 24 May 2024 until 31 May 2024. Most likely the market will do downtrend due to the strong headwind of 2 cut become 1 cut on the CME group feds watch tools.
Even there the strong tailwind exist from Nvidia record topline and bottom-line results. the market will most likely trend lower due to 1 rate cuts playbook.
the price could reach 4973.21 on the S&P500 in the coming weeks.
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After the jolts report yesterday causing the CME Fed's watch tool change from 1 rate cut to 2 rate cut this year. The S&P 500 to rally further since yesterday to 5335.00 today before closing. This is due to the strong headwind of 1 cut becoming a strong Tailwind because of 2 cuts in Sept 2024 and December 2024.Tomorrow will also be a rally if no change of 2 rate cuts. I previously suggested that the S&P 500 will fall to 4973.21 but the lowest was 5235.47 about 94.99% accurate on the market bottom.
If Friday jobs report is good S&P 500 will make a new time high this week.
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The jobs number for S&P 500 was good, CPI and PPI was also good. However, the Fed's changes to 1 cut for this year. A bit hawkish. Since majority was good news the market from 5352.95 on June 6, 2024 rally further to 5431.61. Already breach 5357.12 the projected high for this year back in November 3, 2023.
Based on the revised projection this year on 5569.40 on March 01, 2024, for this year high on the S&P 500. Currently it seems that the market will reach this level in few months' time. Most likely the peak for this year is higher than 5569.40
Note
Buy the Dip on S&P 500 currently since there might be a correction this coming weeks.Note
The all-time high as of today 27 June 2024 is 5487.02 near the all-time high projected on March 01, 2024, 5569.40.The accuracy is at 98.52% currently based on the projected all time high on March 01, 2024 of 5569.40.
If the monthly economic indicators such as the CPI, PPI, job report, JOLTS report and PCE is good until September 2024, then there will be a rate cut coming in December 2024.
There is also a possibility that rate cuts could happen as early as September 2024. This all depends on the news of the economic indicators.
Traders and investors, buy the dip or correction in the market. Since the pricing in of a strong headwind of Fed's FOMC one rate cut is ongoing, battling with the strong tailwind on the AI boom story lead by Nvidia.
A good core PCE number will send S&P 500 soaring higher again on 28 June 2024. If September 2024 has a rate cut for sure, then the S&P 500 price will most likely be going to the moon, as high as 6000 on the index itself.
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The last projection stating that a good PCE number will send the price of S&P500 higher did materialize. 5460.49 to 5635.39, a total of 174.9 point but the price for that day dip. Just like today good CPI numbers but the current S&P 500 index dip 31.28 points.The strong headwind of Fed's only 1 cut of interest rate this year is still in play and not completely price into S&P 500 and Nasdaq. We did see a price correction on Bitcoin when this strong headwind started but the price of the AI Tech stock, S&P 500 and Nasdaq keep going uptrend. Making new record high for 6 to 7 days consecutively.
However, the price action for today might still have a chance to turn green during lunch hour due to the potential September 2024 rate cut and November 2024 rate cuts. If the price don't reverse today, it will be tomorrow if good PPI data. The price might go uptrend again.
If the above 2 possibility in price action did not happen for today and tomorrow. Then there could be a correction coming for the S&P500 and Nasdaq.
I will be a buyer at the dip for this coming correction. If there is one. The professionals are talking about a 5% to 10% correction. There is a weak support around 5162.46 and if 10% correction happen then the price could bottom roughly around 5000 range.
The coming July 31, 2024 Fed's FOMC meeting is they say there will be 2 rate cut this year. The strong headwind of 1 cut will turn into a strong tailwind of 2 cuts or possible 3 cuts.
Why buyer at the current dip?
I am betting on better macro-economic data to have better inflation number and good GDP. I am also betting continue AI tech stock to outperform estimates in a big way and betting of at least 2 rate cuts this year. If all these happen the price of the S&P will continue to make record high and possible to reach the previous suggested target of 6000 this year. It would be a good H2 for 2024 if all these happen.
Next year will be a year of soft landing or recession year call. Recession for next year is not clearly price into the market yet since the USA have still good GDP growth this year so far. I will discuss this further in next few months' time.
BUY the dip and BUY the dip and BUY the dip currently. Don't buy everything you have all on the same time.
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Properly the word bet is not a good word to used here. Don't sound professional. The Fed's FOMC funds rate is still restrictive and the past 2 months of data in inflation is getting some progress. Both CPI, PPI and PCE is much better and the coming months data most likely suggest good numbers for the Fed's to start cutting rates.
The USA economy continue to trend lower from a super strong economy to a strong economy. The labour market is unemployment is still at 4.1 and the unemployment jobless claim is just at 200K to 250K claims per month. A recession would need an unemployment of 6.0 above and jobless claim at 350K above. Hence, you will most likely get a positive GDP growth. The GDP number from the Fed's FOMC meeting still suggest a positive number currently and don't foresee and negative growth this year on the June 2024 meeting.
This month is the Q2 earning session reporting. Nvidia last quarter projected more growth than anticipated. If this happen for Nvidia, most likely the case then the AI boom stories continue.
These are the reasons to buy the dip and worries about a possible recession later. If there is a recession next year in 2025. Then short the stocks or S&P500 to protect the gains.
Note
7300 is the number for S&P 500Trade active
The S&P 500 is most likely getting it's time to correct starting from President Trump assassination attempt and the sentiment he created on chip export to China. Causing the S&P 500 to start to tumble on July 15 and July 17, 2024.The past 1 to 2 weeks the money or liquidity in the stock market is coming from rotation of Mega cap tech or the Mag 7 to Russell 2000 or small cap. Then continue from the Mag 7 to Dow Jones Indices. Now the market moves to sell off in the Mag 7, Broad S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow and Russell. Indicating exhaustion in new liquidity.
Look like the money on the sideline of USD6 trillion have not come into action into the equity market. However, money is slowly moving into cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin. Bitcoin from USD54k to USD65K since July 8, 2024 until today 19 July 2024. This is cause by the strong tailwind effect of Bitcoin halving.
We will see the S&P 500 possible or most likely dipping in market value to 5162.46 or 5000 level. Load up your dry powder or money to buy at this level if the following macro-economic condition happen.
A Good core PCE number, good CPI and PPI number also for July and August 2024. This will most likely cause the US Fed's to start to cut rates in August 2024. If the Fed's FOMC actually announced 2 rate cuts this year on July 31, 2024 meeting.
Plus actually cut 3 times this year, the US equity market will most likely rally further to 6000.
So buy the Dip, buy the dip at 5162.46 or 5000 level.
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If the US equity S&P 500 company mostly beat top line revenue, bottom line EPS and a forecast that beat the streets. Then 6000 is most likely to happen after the correction.The correction may not happen to 5162.46 when the Macro news is good, Fed's FOMC news is good and the earning of AI company is good.
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Next week there us 5 more days to trade and it is possible for the S&P 500 indices to drop to 5162.46 or lower.Buy the Dip or Buy the bottom when the indices is lower than 5162.46. Buy some, don't buy everything in yet.
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buying the dip means buying after the 10% S&P 500 correction from 5669.67 to 5162.46 or 5000 level. Don't buy in between 5669.67 to 5000 level. Wait and be patient.
Happy hunting for buying the dip here.
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Trader can buy some equity at 5186.34 level on the S&P 500.
Happy buying the dip.
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If the next week CPI number is bad and sticky the all-time high at 5669.67 will not be retest so soon. Properly the following month if the CPI is good in September, then you will properly a rebound on the S&P 500.
If the CPI is good next Monday, then the S&P 500 might retest the all-time high.
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August 6 post say buy the dip at 5186.34 currently S&P 500 is at 5594.71 intraday, up 7.87% from the lows on Monday August 5, 2024.
Traders who followed profited with good returns.
CPI number was good during August release. Jackson Hold this week Friday should be good for the market. The S&P 500 will continue to trend higher from here until Nvidia earning report on August 28, 2024 and the PCE number in end August.
If all three is good, then S&P 500 will retest all time high at 5669.67 again soon and most likely breach and head up further.
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Trader should trim some gains from the past rise from 5186.34 to 5489.94 today September 5, 2024. Take some off the table since there is most likely bad news for the jobs report tomorrow. The last read was 4.3. This time if it ticks higher there maybe another panic selling will happen.
Also, the September seasonality of selling from hedge fund managers going on vacation causing this week S&P 500 share to drop.
There is a weak support level at 5309.97 a 4-hours chart support. Depends on the news for jobs report, if it turns into semi-Strong head wind this could be the bottom but if the number is 4.5 or higher than the price action will breach 5309.97 level and head to 4886.82 a 1-day chart support level. If the panic selling is long, then 4300 level will be the support. Highly unlike will reach 4300 level.
If good news on the job report number, then 5309.97 is currently not likely to happen. Market will go up or sideways until the 3rd week of September due to seasonality.
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Previous call for the S&P 500 dip was at 5000 and 5162.46. The actual was 5186.34 on August 5, 2024.
99.539% accurate and 96.407% accurate.
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get ready your dry powder tomorrow. If the bad news is strong headwind, then buy the dip around 5309.97 or lower at 4886.82.
Will update the level where to buy tomorrow.
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The bottom will most likely be 4886.82 than 5309.97 when the seasonality sells off ends.
So hold your horses first before buying currently as the S&P 500 intraday is at 5409.77 near 5309.97.
If you think that S&P 500 will not drop to 4886.82 then buy some shares at 5309.97. If next week the entire week the price goes south down trends again then 4886.82 might just happen. Can't see any strong headwind in the coming months except for recession scare. The current strong headwind is the seasonality.
Happy buying the dip again.
BUY THE DIP, BUY THE DIP, BUY THE DIP.
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My previous projection on the S&P 4886.82 and 5309.97 is wrong completely that was based on the September and October seasonality effect. The S&P 500 now is 5815.04. The price rises due the Fed's rate cuts and the better-than-expected Macro Data and strong job report in the USA. No sign of recession in the USA economy.
My previous projection on the S&P 500 on June 07, 2024 was 6000 level. IT seem that S&P 500 most likely will reach this level at the end of 2024 or before end of 2024.
My projection for end 2025 is at 7300 level if there is no recession in 2025.
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On July 11, 2024 I posted and say that I will write about the possibility of a recession in USA few months later since the economy back then was not clear yet.
Currently the USA economy is in a sweet spot with the 3rd Q GDP at 3.2 as of October 9, 2024. The overall USA economy is in great shape. Highly unlikely a recession in 6 months' time. The Fed's 50 basis point rate cut in September 2024 meeting just started. Typically, after 12 months from the start of the Fed's rate cut if there is no recession then a soft landing most likely appears in USA economy.
Why soft landing is very possible?
1) Jobless claim at 254K which is not in recession number of 350K above.
2) Unemployment at 4.1 year over year. Any number below low 4 range is strong labor
market which is what the economy needs.
3) USA non-farm payroll is positive at 254K from previous 159K. Anything that is negative here
is recession. 254K is far away from a recession number.
3) The core PCE at 2.6% near the Fed's target 2.0%.
4) Fed's fund's rate expected to be 4.25 to 4.5 at the end of 2024, cutting 100 basis point.
5) Fed's fund rate in end 2025 will be 3.25 to 3.5 another 100 basis point cuts.
The only thing bad is the ISM manufacturing PMI at below 50 for many months now. A recession cannot be pronounce when only the PMI below 50 and the GDP is positive.
USA economy is most likely not having a recession coming and that is good for USA equity.
Buy the DIP if there is a dip.
Note
The current S&P 500 index on November 8, 2024 is 5995.53 near 6000. I projected this year will reach this level by end of the year or before end of the year on June 27, 2024. By next week the S&P 500 will break past the 6000 level.
The price level of S&P 500 is beyond the measurement of Technical Analysis charts. All I can say that this market with all the same strong tailwind in the last post. 6200 by year end is not a problem. It might just close higher.
My projection of 7300 for next year market end.
BUY THE DIP, IF THERE IS A DIP CURRENTLY!
BUY, BUY and BUY
This month November 2024 and December 2024 will most likely be a uptrend month. There is no more strong headwind in the market hence the marker will go higher from here in the next 2 months time.
Note
The S&P 500 did break above 6000 level as predicted on November 10, 2024, and the last year high closed was 6090.28 with 98.23% accurate since My projection was 6200.
The next 6 months the market might just go up to 7300 for the S&P 500 indices. Let wait for 6 month and see how it goes.
Again, BUY the DIP, BUY, BUY and BUY the Dip.
The next month February 2025 most likely will be uptrend for the S&P 500 because
1) CME Fed's watchtool from 1 cut has moved to 2 cuts yesterday.
2) Trump Traffic on China, Canada and Mexico will not effect the market so soon, most likely will effect some time in June 2025 or July 2025
3) USA consumer spending is strong
4) Job at full employment at 4.1 in December 2024
5) The 6 months average core PCE is at 2.3 near 2.0 the fed's target
6) Atlanta Fed's GDP read on Jan 28, 2025 at 3.2 show a very strong economy in the USA
Note
Today February 11, 2025 Malaysia or February 10, 2025 USA the S&P 500 will be in negative close on 5.00pm if the 10 years treasury rate end up higher than 4.491 during closing also on 5.00pm.
The S&P 500 will close in positive territory on 5.00pm February 10, 2025 if the 10 years treasury yield end up lower than 4.491 during closing also on 5.00pm February 10, 2025 USA time.
Let see if I am correct or wrong on this intraday call.
Note
My call on S&P 500 when 10 years treasury yield higher than 4.491 will cause the S&P 500 be close down or negative is very wrong.
The S&P 500 close green with 10 years treasury yield above 4.491.
Sorry for my wrong call.
Note
I try to guess the S&P 500 again today February 12, 2025. I would say that the S&P 500 will most likely (above 90%) to be in the red or close at a negative value for the day at 5.00pm USA time due to the CPI report of higher than expected inflation.
The other two reason for closing in the red or negative:
1) CME Fed's watch tool move to 1 rate cut this year on October 2025, previously July 2025.
2) the 10 year treasury yield still in the green increase from 4.529 to 4.644
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