US10Y vs. SPX ~ Inverse Correlation/Ratio Indicator (Dec 2023)

Updated
US10Y versus SPX inverse correlation analysis.

Work in progress indicator for anticipating market trend switches.

Notes:
  • Emerging correlation identified within US10Y/SPX ratio.
  • Spikes in ratio (orange vertical line, dotted) aka bond yield ROC/volatility = higher probability of risk-off sentiment (ie big tech & growth stock rotation).
  • Correlation only valid when market is "hyper-sensitive" to bond market fluctuations, especially during recent US Fed undertaking rate hike cycle.
  • Should be used in conjunction with other confluence factors to provide conviction in swing/position trades.
Comment
US10Y vs. SPX chart update (Thurs 14/12):
  • US bond yields getting slaughtered post-FOMC.
  • Ratio ROC keeps falling - expect SPX to continue rallying, TBC.
  • Eyes on VIX, DXY, SPX support/resistance levels, etc for further confluence re: parabolic moves.
bondmarketbondsbondyieldschartanalysisPivot PointsSPX (S&P 500 Index)Support and ResistanceTechnical AnalysisTrend AnalysisUS10Yyields

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