Short

USOIL Forecast

Updated

Crude oil futures rose toward $76 per barrel on Friday, cutting the 5% plunge from the prior session that took prices to their lowest since July. ended on $40.43 nearly 7 percent lower than its previous session.

Breakthrough 75.63 resistance. Still it is within acceptable deviation range, the short stance is yet too early to be declared over.

API crude inventory scheduled next Tuesday, 11/21. The analysts are not expecting for any significant change in the inventory supply. While OPEC and the IEA both expecting supply tightness in the forth quarter, the downtrend rally won't seem to be make a comeback until any significant mood changing event introduces.

During last PPI, while the market is forecasting a significant slowdown in overall business performance, the key is whether 2023 will be able to meet the expected average 82.6 mb/d, respectively.

Note

Stocks of crude oil in the US jumped by 9.047 million barrels in the week that ended November 17th, 2023, following 1.335 million barrels rise in the previous week, data from the API's Weekly Statistical Bulletin showed.

It was way above market expectation of 1.467 million barrels increase.

Note

WTI crude futures steadied around $78 per barrel on Wednesday as traders look ahead to an OPEC+ meeting this weekend.

Oil prices climbed more than 6% since Thursday on speculation that the group of major producers may deepen supply cuts at the upcoming meeting to bolster prices.

Investors also remained cautious about the prospect of weaker demand and a global economic slowdown, with traders watching for key economic indicators out of the US and China, two of the world’s largest oil consume

Opinion: Supply vs demand. On which we put more weight towards?

Note

API Actual: 9.047M
API Consensus: 1.467M

EIA Crude Import Actual 0.259M
EIA Crude Import Previous: -0.385M

EIA Crude stock Actual: 8.701M
EIA Crude stock consensus: 1.160M

As Saudi Oil production had shrunk to nine million barrels per day in July since its last OPEC meeting with Russia to restrict supply amid signs of weakening global demand in slowing economy, Saudi, the largest oil supplier in the world had expressed its opinion on keeping the production to remain low until the end of this year. As foreseen through such decisions from the major suppliers, the most recent Crude inventory within the states has turned out to be way larger than expected.

Since September of 2023, the Crude oil future
USOIL
plunged by $-22.35 (-23.62%) to $72.28 per barrel during the last week trading session. Slower than expected recovery in economic activities(PPI Nov 2023) adding fear of the constant weakening of the oil demand, forecasting a skeptical view towards a short term recovery of the oil demand and its price as well.

The key major resistances are as follow:
Top: $77.8
Mid: $75.5
Low: $72.12

The weekly upside trend is still the last hope for the Bullish traders.
Once both the Four-hours and the daily candles closes below the $64-60 zone, we will then be able to finalize on such ambiguous consensus.

With OPEC+ meeting pushed back to this weekends, every commodity investors focus is on the meeting report, hoping for the decision to give them the better foresight of the future of the market.

The Best Futures Trading Hours in Crude:

CL opens for trading on the floor, called the pit session at 9AM EST
European trading closes at 11:30 AM EST
The best hours for trading are the most liquid, between 9:00AM and 11:30AM
Pit session closes at 2:30PM EST, when floor trading stops for the day
Therefore, the best trading in the afternoon is the last hour between 1:30PM to 2:30PM EST

Note

Nov 23rd OPEC+ meeting.

Note

As projected, the trend line has been broken.

Retest 75.4 price line then will see if we continue the bull run or bear turn to 60-price range.

Note

Key regression trend has not yet been met.

Jobs day Friday, the reports has indicated yet resilient strong job market economy.
With and both rallying straight towards the all time high price level, here is my opinion.

- The fed is more likely to be forced to lower the interest rate due to the upcoming election; Biden is running again for president. Lower commodities and living cost is mandatory for both the Gov't and the Fed to win the vote and lower the interest rate down to 2% target range. Even with the seven consecutive down week in , the public is still turning away from the current president, judging his lack of ability to run a successful economy. To earn those lost interest, he will do anything in his ability to do so. Even lower price-per-barrel is expected to come. $67 (the lower red line) is the key resistance level.

Note

Another Price cut from Saudi backed by increased US production and increased Brazil export beyond expectation.
With ongoing tension in the Mid-east, we are looking at another downturn to $67.

Kim_CLSPX

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