Good Morning --
I hope everyone had a good week of trading ranges -- although short, we saw some VOLATILITY.
Here we will step back with the year-to-date
VIX in the background as we look towards a fresh week trading within the broader market ranges.
Let us begin --
Last week the S&P500 -- with the
SPX gapped up opening into strength of a short week at $6,007.46 and wicking up to $6,050.83 only to sell off during U.S. wartime engagement threats within the news cycle, closing the weeks range at $5,984.57. This provided a move of $96.96 and is most comparative to what IV (16.18%) stated entering last week -- that was predicting a range of +/- $101.24.
Now, looking towards this week -- IV (16.34%) is nearly unchanged as HV10 (9.75%) is showing a 'strength of IV' lowering at only 60% currently. IV within the yearly spectrum sits with an IVp of 74% -- fairly expensive as this can show the majority of money is spending up to protect downside uncertainties.
Understandable of course.
Our long-term trending volatility of HV63 (30.25%) is showing a 'strength of IV' at 185% which is correlating to an implied move of +/- $188.98 for the week. This is an advantage if reached of $86.90 over stated IV. A massive premium capture potential.
With the MACRO news cycle pointing EXTREMELY NEGATIVE, I will be watching for volatility expansion. I believe futures will open up gapping into quarterly marks -- this is just my humble opinion of course.
I see the opposite of last week happening, where we gap down and run up into the week. I don't hold a swing position, just an observation that psychologically retail will flip bearish on wartime news with a massive gap down, only to get trapped as broader markets expand upwards into the week.
That's all for now. Everyone have a good week trading ranges, and I will see you Saturday to review! As always, know you ABCs and stay hedged for whatever your bias may be!
CHEERS
I hope everyone had a good week of trading ranges -- although short, we saw some VOLATILITY.
Here we will step back with the year-to-date
VIX in the background as we look towards a fresh week trading within the broader market ranges.Let us begin --
Last week the S&P500 -- with the
SPX gapped up opening into strength of a short week at $6,007.46 and wicking up to $6,050.83 only to sell off during U.S. wartime engagement threats within the news cycle, closing the weeks range at $5,984.57. This provided a move of $96.96 and is most comparative to what IV (16.18%) stated entering last week -- that was predicting a range of +/- $101.24.Now, looking towards this week -- IV (16.34%) is nearly unchanged as HV10 (9.75%) is showing a 'strength of IV' lowering at only 60% currently. IV within the yearly spectrum sits with an IVp of 74% -- fairly expensive as this can show the majority of money is spending up to protect downside uncertainties.
Understandable of course.
Our long-term trending volatility of HV63 (30.25%) is showing a 'strength of IV' at 185% which is correlating to an implied move of +/- $188.98 for the week. This is an advantage if reached of $86.90 over stated IV. A massive premium capture potential.
With the MACRO news cycle pointing EXTREMELY NEGATIVE, I will be watching for volatility expansion. I believe futures will open up gapping into quarterly marks -- this is just my humble opinion of course.
I see the opposite of last week happening, where we gap down and run up into the week. I don't hold a swing position, just an observation that psychologically retail will flip bearish on wartime news with a massive gap down, only to get trapped as broader markets expand upwards into the week.
That's all for now. Everyone have a good week trading ranges, and I will see you Saturday to review! As always, know you ABCs and stay hedged for whatever your bias may be!
CHEERS
Trade closed: target reached
What a week! Heavy volatility running past HV63 on all fronts! Only AAPL, BITX, and IBIT didn't fully reach HV63 values -- understandable for the BTC funds and Apple has been stuck in the mud since December 24' 4T milestone mark. Come back soon for more as my HV values will be updated into next week! 
Dive deeper into the world of volatility with me — Post a comment, ask a question, and BOOST the post if you’d like.
Make sure you 'Grab my Chart' weekly to pull my data onto your screen!
Find me over on the 'X' platform:
@askHVtobidIV
Make sure you 'Grab my Chart' weekly to pull my data onto your screen!
Find me over on the 'X' platform:
@askHVtobidIV
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Dive deeper into the world of volatility with me — Post a comment, ask a question, and BOOST the post if you’d like.
Make sure you 'Grab my Chart' weekly to pull my data onto your screen!
Find me over on the 'X' platform:
@askHVtobidIV
Make sure you 'Grab my Chart' weekly to pull my data onto your screen!
Find me over on the 'X' platform:
@askHVtobidIV
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.