We can expect a sideways consolidation, or, some kind of correction and retest of support, during the next month, as described here. Today, a support level held, and weekly is still in an uptrend for the next 3 weeks, technically, but sentiment was too positive before this drop, and we had already exceeded all weekly upside targets ahead of time, which usually points to a 'bubbly' situation.
I reduced long exposure in
BTC to about 20% of the account, exactly 2 days ago. I am now looking to hedge the downside if necessary, on at least half the position, or maybe all of it.
Good vehicles to do so are altcoin pairs like
ZECBTC, 
ETHBTC, 
DASHBTC, 
XRPBTC, but you can also open shorts against fiat currencies if you trust exchanges with your money.
As I pointed out in my previous post, the spreads closing (in relative performance terms during 1 year) signaled something was going on, it wasn't a normal occurrence. Like, everyone bought closing the spread up. Who's left to buy?...
The fundamental situation is interesting but potentially dangerous. Litecoin's implementation of Segwit and the first Lightning network payment lit a fire of excitement, but it can also become a risk factor if this test were to fail. The first flaw that is found in this implementation will accelerate a decline inBTC certainly, so, it is better to be prepared. Most people saw this as bullish, many were celebrating, people in my country were getting together, drinking champagne and celebrating BTC's high prices, and 
LTC's Segwit adoption like it was the 2nd coming. This was a sentiment red flag for me, which drove me to reduce exposure to be safe. Clearly, I was right so far, since prices fell more than 5% since then. Let's see how it evolves.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
I reduced long exposure in
BTC to about 20% of the account, exactly 2 days ago. I am now looking to hedge the downside if necessary, on at least half the position, or maybe all of it.Good vehicles to do so are altcoin pairs like
ZECBTC, ETHBTC, DASHBTC, XRPBTC, but you can also open shorts against fiat currencies if you trust exchanges with your money.As I pointed out in my previous post, the spreads closing (in relative performance terms during 1 year) signaled something was going on, it wasn't a normal occurrence. Like, everyone bought closing the spread up. Who's left to buy?...
The fundamental situation is interesting but potentially dangerous. Litecoin's implementation of Segwit and the first Lightning network payment lit a fire of excitement, but it can also become a risk factor if this test were to fail. The first flaw that is found in this implementation will accelerate a decline in
BTC certainly, so, it is better to be prepared. Most people saw this as bullish, many were celebrating, people in my country were getting together, drinking champagne and celebrating BTC's high prices, and LTC's Segwit adoption like it was the 2nd coming. This was a sentiment red flag for me, which drove me to reduce exposure to be safe. Clearly, I was right so far, since prices fell more than 5% since then. Let's see how it evolves.Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Note
ETHEUR is in an uptrend, close to trigger a new short term rally meanwhile...ETF decision might be the spark to kickstart this.Trade active
Shorted at 1600.5 avg.Another good signal for this top is that people in
FB were posting forecasts of Elliott Wave counts pointing to a rally to 50000000usd or whatever random numbers they like to predict.Note
BTCUSD rallied more in other exchanges, as a sign of exhuberance, catching up to Bitfinex irrationally high prices This further proves my thesis, of this irrational sentiment top, and the Finex withdrawal + other variables (like the ransomware) being possible catalysts for this bubble bursting...-bubble being the rally from the 29th of April onwards-
Note
So, my BTCJPY chart's idea, of relative performance being a signal of a big move was correct, we just didn't know the direction yet. Now we do, it's sideways or down, due to Bitfinex.Note
In case anyone hates on me for saying this is likely a top, please review my publications before you get upset...
Disclaimer: I'm long BTC, but hedged exposure currently at 1600.5 euros.
Note
Anticipating the correction bottom, here's long term BTCUSD for your delight Note
As long as closing above the open, this bar is a range expansion bar, so, we can buy the dip during July/August. Perfectly matches the weekly forecast.Note
Trade closed manually
Sold 100% of BTC and covered my short hedge, so I basically sold BTC for 1600.5 euros for now. Considering my entries, not bad ;)
I will wait for the news and then reenter when I think it's safe. Random chance events aren't my style of low risk investing. No edge in gambling.
Note
Note
After today's close, BTC is officially in a downtrend.Trade active
I'm long BTC again, since the downtrend failed to materialize, it appears like most investors expected the SEC news this Monday, which are now clearly not going to come out for a while. No one knows the exact date, and the weekly time at mode signal calls for upside during all of May. Will revisit this idea by May 29th.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.