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BITCOIN - Head and Shoulders Targeting $21000BTC is in a good setup for a head and shoulders to the downside. The head and shoulders is a bearish pattern where the price bounces and returns to the "Neckline" support level the 3 times with the final return resulting in a break of neckline support. How to spot The easiest way to spot a head and shoulders is to find a support level that the price is bouncing off of. Look for a moderate bounce that returns to support followed by a larger bounce that also returns to support. This is the left shoulder, head setup. In this case, you can see a possible right shoulder forming around $23120. This price area has proven to be strong resistance. It has kept the price at bay for weeks now with all breakouts retreating back below it. As a result, it's the perfect set up for a head and shoulders. How to set your target price To determine your target price, measure the distance between the top of the head and the neckline. In this case, $1500. Subtract this amount from the neckline and you will get your target price. Make the bearish case How is the price action looking? Is the price action bearish? Is there a lot of buy or sell volume? By making a bearish case prior to your head and shoulders call, you will have more success in your trades. BTC BEARISH CASE -Broke the red channel -Returned back below strong resistance -Bear flag setup for right shoulder How to Trade Some traders like to enter their short at the top of what they perceive to be the right shoulder. The weaker (lower) the right shoulder in comparison to the left shoulder, the better. This shoulder is still early so its difficult to say whether we've topped yet, but the strong resistance would make me feel better about entering here. Other traders like to enter their short once the price has broken the neckline, which would be a more definite bearish move. Technical patterns are never 100% for certain. However, if you can spot them and trade them in the right circumstances, you will find a lot of success. Best of luck! I hope this helps improve your trading and your PnL!
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by jpbrown1023
1
BITCOIN - Using the CCI and RSI Indicators to Predict DumpsThis was a cool trick I learned a while back and I thought I would share. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is very similar to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), but the CCI tends to be more sensitive. As a result, the CCI tends to drop when there is weakness in comparison to the RSI and the divergence in the two indicators becomes evident. I've highlighted to previous instances when the CCI dropped significantly in comparison to the RSI. Had you seen this, you could have exited your position and saved yourself a lot of money. The CCI is currently showing a strong bearish divergence to the RSI, which may very well be a foreshadowing of a coming BTC dump. As a result, I'm going to be in USD to be safe until I see the direction the market decides to go. I hope this trick helps you as much as it has helped me.
Education
by jpbrown1023
2
Elliot Waves Complete Guide | Chapter 3.6 - "Triple Three"Hello Traders. Welcome to Chapter 3.6, THE FINAL SUB CHAPTER! You made it this far, congratulations, you have learned a lot of the basic and complex patterns. We are going to finish this sub-chapter with the final complex correction pattern called the "Triple Three" pattern, which is VERY similar to the double three! Chapter 3 Glossary: 3.1 Zig-Zag Waves 3.2 Flat Correction , Expanded Flat 3.3 Running Flat, Contracting Triangle 3.4 Barrier Triangle, Expanded Triangle 3.5 Double-Three 3.6 Triple-Three ----- Triple-Three Bear with me here, we are almost full finished with the complexity of correction patterns. As the final sub-chapter, I would like to make sure most people understand the double three correction. The triple three correction is very similar to the double three, it is just even more elongated and extended. The overall count is W,X,Y,X,Z, so the three simple corrections are separated by two "X" waves. Just like the double three pattern, these "X" waves are usually zig-zags, but can take any form, which is why it makes these consolidation patterns so messy. A triangle is only valid as wave Z and therefore represents the end of the correction. As with the double three, the variation displayed only shows some possible forms of a correction. In general the three simple corrective pattern can take any shape (Flat, zig-zag, triangle - REMEMBER TO KNOW WHAT THEY ARE), but usually show alternation between themselves in any given form. A final notice about corrections: Most traders lose money in these long sideways corrections as the market does not present a clear trend. Trading in a sideways market is about surviving the markets, not profiting. It is usually full of false breakouts and messy price action. The experience shows, that most of the time it is the best decision to stay out of the market until a clear entry signal is given. That is why the triple three is such a powerful tool. In some cases a clear ranging market (especially on higher timeframe) can be traded, but this is only for experienced traders. If anything, this is a time to accumulate. Remember, you must understand the basics of all the correction patterns. If you aren't even sure of the basic correction patterns, make sure to start from chapter 1!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
17
Elliot Waves Complete Guide | Chapter 3.4 - "Barrier/Expanded"Hello Traders. Welcome to Chapter 3.4, where we talk further about two more different types of triangles - the Barrier and Expanded triangle. In the previous chapter we talked about the running flat and contracting triangle, but for these two, they are essentially the same but different overall shape! Most importantly, these are very common patterns within the realm of technical analysis and these textbook patterns also have Elliot Wave patterns within these common patterns. So, as you can see, if you can memorize the simple patterns, then you can start applying more advanced theories on top of them! Chapter 3 Glossary: 3.1 Zig-Zag Waves 3.2 Flat Correction , Expanded Flat 3.3 Running Flat, Contracting Triangle 3.4 Barrier Triangle, Expanded Triangle 3.5 Double-Three 3.6 Triple-Three ----- Barrier Triangle The only difference from the contracting triangle is that the line BD or ACE is horizontal. This is actually a very common pattern we see used daily by traders - the "ascending triangle". The other one goes towards a horizontal line, so a Barrier Triangle is a variation of the contracting pattern. A barrier triangle has the same characteristics as a contracting triangle except that waves B and D end at essentially the same level. Expanded Triangle Most rules are the same as for contracting triangles, with these minor differences (make sure to memorize these as well!): - Waves C, D, and E each move beyond the end of the previous same-directional subwave (the result is that going forward in time, a line connecting the ends of waves B and D diverges from a line connecting the ends of waves A and C.) In the next chapter we will be going over the double three, and finally the triple three as a conclusion to chapter 3. Make sure to read review all of my previous chapters. It will start to get more advanced!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
15
Elliot Waves Complete Guide | Chapter 3.2 - "Flat-Expanded Flat"Hello Traders. Welcome to Chapter 3.2, where we talk about another form of corrective waves, the Flat and Expanded correction. In chapter 3.2, we will be discussing Zig-Zag waves. This is where most people will get "chopped" up in the market, as these corrections can often cause a lot of small panics within these corrective waves. These corrections more often than not, destroy traders. If you learn even the basics of corrective Elliot Waves, you can use them to your advantage to identify if we are in a fakeout and identify whether you are in a corrective pattern or not. Chapter 3 Glossary: 3.1 Zig-Zag Waves 3.2 Flat Correction , Expanded Flat 3.3 Running Flat, Contracting Flat 3.4 Barrier Triangle, Expanded Triangle 3.5 Double-Three 3.6 Triple-Three ----- Flat Correction The Flat correction is probably the second most common corrective pattern and always has a 3-3-5 structure. This can be a very confusing pattern for many as it's also known to cause a lot of losses for intraday traders - it's AKA a "choppy" market period. As wave A is not five-waved and powerful enough, the retracement of wave B is considered strong. There are rules to this! 📌Rules: • It's a sideways movement - Wave A and Wave B are corrective. • Wave C is impulsive, but does not go much below Wave A. • Most of the time, Waves B/C go some degree above or below of Wave A (just to trick people into believing a breakout occurs, hence, choppy!). • Although it is called the Regular Flat Correction, it is not the most common one and the second most common consolidated corrective pattern. ❗The ABSOLUTE most important thing is to just observe in corrective waves unless you are a true day trader. Otherwise, watch for overall market structure to avoid overtrading in corrections since these are the most trickiest. Once you achieve an overall picture of the structure (about 70% through), you can start considering on entering a position to increase your probabilities and risk of not over trading. Expanded Flat The Expanded Flat is the second most common one under the flat corrections. Confused already? Go back and re-read everything. • Expanded flat is a corrective wave pattern with an extended wave B, which reaches higher than the start of wave A. • Wave B makes a fake breakout above the last high. • Wave C is also extended and goes deeper than wave A. • Structure of the correction is 3-3-5. 📌Rules: • Wave B ends higher than the beginning of wave A • Wave C is considered an impulse or ending diagonal and ends lower than the low of wave A. ❗ Wave B/C over and over again catch traders on the wrong side, as fake breakouts take place just before the market turns. This in turn creates a lot of traders to get destroyed in the market! Trade Safe! Below are the chapters from 1-3.1!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
29
CME Cheat Sheet 2021CME Group Futures Dates: Dec 2020 BTCZ20 16 Dec 2019 > 24 Dec 2020 Settlement: 28 Dec 2020 - Jan 2021 BTCF21 03 Aug 2020 > 29 Jan 2021 Settlement: 01 Feb 2021 - Feb 2021 BTCG21 31 Aug 2020 > 26 Feb 2021 Settlement: 01 Mar 2021 - Mar 2021 BTCH21 28 Sep 2020 > 26 Mar 2021 Settlement: 29 Mar 2021 - Apr 2021 BTCJ21 02 Nov 2020 > 30 Apr 2021 Settlement: 03 May 2021 - May 2021 BTCK21 30 Nov 2020 > 28 May 2021 Settlement: 01 Jun 2021 - Jun 2021 BTCM21 28 Dec 2020 > 25 Jun 2021 Settlement: 28 Jun 2021 - Dec 2021 BTCZ21 30 Dec 2019 > 31 Dec 2021 Settlement: 03 Jan 2022 - Dec 2022 BTCZ22 28 Dec 2020 > 30 Dec 2022 Settlement: 03 Jan 2023 - Source: www.cmegroup.com CME Bitcoin Gaps Study: marketsscience.com CME Futures Info: www.cmegroup.com CME Futures Open Interest Info: www.cmegroup.com Indicator To Track CME Sunday Opens:
CME:BTC1!Education
by The_Paradoxed_Prophet
1
Elliot Waves Complete Guide | Chapter 2.1 - "Motive Waves"Hello Traders. I hope you enjoyed chapter 1 and studied hard. If you are having a hard time understanding chapter 2, please go back to chapter 1 and study that chapter first. Chapter 2 - Motive Waves: 2.1 Impulse, Leading Diagonal 2.2 Ending Diagonal, Truncation 2.4 Extension, Fifth Wave Extensions ------ 2.1 Impulse, Leading Diagonal: Impulse Wave As previously discussed in chapter 1, 'Motive Waves' are subdivided into five waves. These five waves always move in the same direction of the current trend by degrees. The countertrend of wave 2 never moves beyond the beginning of wave 1 and wave 4 moves never beyond the beginning of wave 3. The impulse wave is one of the most common of wave types. In the impulse, wave 4 never overlaps with the high of wave 1. Waves 1,2,5 are themselves are what is called "motive." Also, wave 3 is NEVER the shortest wave and always an impulse Leading Diagonal The leading diagonal is also considered a motive wave, but not an impulse. It is a subcategory of a motive wave because it also has corrective characteristics. Wave 4 overlaps with the top of wave 1 and can be the wave 1 of an impulse or a Wave A of an ABC correction. It's structure can be seen as: 3-3,3,3,3 or 5,3,5,3,5. For the leading diagonal, wave 4 overlaps with wave 1 and has a smaller retracement than our wave 2 as shown above. It is usually followed by a wave 2 in a motive wave or by a B wave in an ABC correction.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
33
Elliot Waves Complete Guide | Chapter 1 - "The Overall Cycle"Hello Traders. I would like to introduce a new series of articles pertaining to the Elliot Wave theory. We are seeing higher interest in Elliot Wave theories these days but many traders and investors have a hard time grasping the foundation of Elliot Waves. I would like to finally start implementing my overall view of the basics on Elliot Waves so that investors can start understanding the many great charts we have here on TradingView. The Elliott Wave Theory is one of the best tools to describe how markets behave from both a technical and market psychology perspective. It is used to identify the end of a movement and predict where the market will turn via reversals. In combination of basic patterns, indicators, and Elliot Waves, you can have the secret recipe to a high probability, or near perfect trade. I will be dividing the chapters as followed: Chapter 1: The Overall Cycle Chapter 2: Motive Waves Chapter 3: Corrective Waves Chapter 4: Variations of Waves
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
72
Financial Risk Cheat Sheet - How To Allocate Your Funds ProperlyHello traders. Here I present to you an important lesson of how we should all be allocating our funds. In the pyramid above, you can see the distribution of risky assets to low risk assets. Low risks are associated with low expected returns while high risks are associated with high expected returns. Investors who are not willing to take high risks have to be contented with lower returns and investors who want to achieve higher returns must be prepared to bear higher risks. This is life - but life is all about taking risks. As there are good stresses and bad stresses in life - there is also good risks and bad risks. Instead of simply saying what's good or bad, I like to use a term called, "calculated risks". By calculating your risks properly, you can learn to allocate your capital and exponentially grow your funds in a longer period of time if you take proper action. Think of this as the food pyramid. Too much sugar can be bad for you. But with just the right amount, it can be beneficial for you mentally. The Investment Risk Pyramid is an asset allocation theory and I have presented it in an easy visualization in this article. Investors can use in selecting different asset classes to diversify their portfolio according to their risk tolerance and expected returns. I highly advise many to screenshot this and hang it on their walls. It can be a good daily reminder before you press the buy or sell button. Bottom of the Pyramid: Lower Risk The base of the pyramid contains the lowest set of risky investments. These investments that have the lowest risk, because, well, they generate the lowest rates of returns. These investments are represented by the pyramid’s wide base as low-risk investments should generally constitute the bulk of your portfolio. These investments include cash and cash equivalents, money market account and money market funds, treasury bills, certificate of deposits as well as high-rated government and corporate bonds. Middle of the Pyramid: Medium Risk The middle of the pyramid contains investments of a moderate risk. Although they are riskier than the assets at the bottom of the pyramid, these investments should still be r'elatively' safe as investors all around the world also like to invest into these types of assets. They are the pinnacle of how the economy runs. These investments generally offer a stable return and capital appreciation in the longer term. These investments include income stocks and growth stocks as well as mutual funds, index funds and real estate - all necessities of life in the economy. Top of the Pyramid: Higher Risk The top of the pyramid represents high risk investments. These investments may yield large gains but may also yield large losses. Because of their speculative nature, you should only allocate money to high-risk investments if you can afford to lose them without serious repercussions. These investments include futures, options, commodities, penny stocks as well as alternative investments like precious metals and gems, collectibles, peer-to-peer lending and cryptocurrencies. The most important part of this lesson is how to allocate these funds. It is not bad to invest into risky assets, as long as you are making sure to allocate your funds properly by moving them down the pyramid! For more risk management articles, please check them below! Happy investing and trading! Trade Safe. X Force
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
63
4 Rules to Day Trading - Realistic Approach On How To Not LoseHello traders. So you are thinking of day trading as a career? Let's start off with the bad news: it's difficult. Good news? It's doable - if approached with the right mindset. This is a part of my risk management series that I believe many traders can benefit - new or advanced. Day trading involves buying an asset and reselling it for a profit the same day - or for swing traders, a few days. Many people turn to day trading because it’s rewarding when done correctly. But for the faint of heart, many fail to do so and give up - or lose their whole accounts. My job here is to explain to the general public that day trading is not realistic for the faint of heart; however, if you do your research, practice accordingly, day trading can lead to some serious gains. 1. Compare your expected returns The first step in limiting your losses when day trading is figuring out the expected return on all the trades you’re considering. You can use the following formula to calculate the expected return as also shown above in the diagram Once you have calculated the expected return on all of your upcoming trades, you can compare the results and choose the trades that offer the most opportunity for profit. Please refer to my previous post on how to calculate the risk reward ratio below this guide. Manage Your Risk Managing risk is incredibly important. The best way to limit your day trading losses is to manage individual trades. You should never risk more than 3-5% of your balance on one trade. People tend to go all in. Yes - it gives the maximum gains possible - but often leads to liquidations or a trap that you may never be able to get out! As an example, if you have $10,000 in your trading account, you never want to risk more than $300 on a single trade. By keeping this rule in mind, you know you’ll never lose everything if you happen to have a bad day in trading. More opportunities will come - I promise, especially if you keep this step in mind. Create a Daily Stopping Point (Risk Reward Ratio (RRR)) Here, you must decide how much you can afford to risk each day. This is very straight forward, but often missed out by many traders, including me! You have a few ways to determine this stopping point. For example, you can plan for the day to stop a trade if you lose 3 percent of your account, or, if you have three losing trades in a row, or, if you lose the sum of your average daily profits. These are just three of my favorite strategies to use. Keep in mind that if you decide to create a stopping point based on your average profits, the amount you can afford to lose will increase over time as you improve your skills. Use Stop-Loss Orders! (SUPER IMPORTANT) This is probably one of the most important ones. Even if you don't follow any of the 4 steps above, you can still reduce your total blowout loss by having a stop loss in tact. With a stop-loss order, you can minimize losses by deciding on a specific price that doesn’t go below your tolerance for risk. If the price of your trade reaches the stop-loss, you know it’s time to exit. 99% of traders forget this. I hope this post helps everyone out! Please check out my whole risk management series below!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
25
The Most Recommended Timeframes to Trade On (Top Down Analysis)Hello traders. Here I would like to take my take on the best timeframes (personally) that I use to trade on. This can apply to all tradable assets - especially for cryptocurrencies. Weekly Timeframe (1W): Usually one-week traders are known as longterm traders. Usually they are good at analyzing the market from a longer perspective and will usually have a portfolio that is heavily catered towards fundamentals, rather than technicals. They will hold trades from lasting from a week up to even months - and possibly up to years. The advantages to a weekly trader will be that you don't have to always watch the trade; however, it will take longer to realize profits - and that's okay by them. Many new traders tend to avoid this approach because it means longer periods of time before trades are realized. However, by many accounts, trading with a shorter-term (day trading) approach can be far more problematic to execute successfully, and it often takes traders considerably longer to develop their strategy. One-day Timeframe (1D): These are also known as swing traders. These traders hold positions from days, up to weeks. The advantages for swing traders is that they are usually more geared towards longer term profits and is comfortable with holding a trade overnight. After the trend has been determined on the weekly chart (lower highs and lower lows, for example), traders can look to enter positions on the weekly chart in a variety of ways. Many traders look to utilize price action for determining the overall trend, but indicators can absolutely be utilized here as well. 1H - 4H Timeframes (1H, 4H): These traders are usually known as 'hybrid' intra-day, day, and even swing traders. These two timeframes are usually the best to use indicators as the provide quick data and more data to help learn the process of the larger scale timeframes. These two timeframes are the epitome of creating the larger picture. These traders usually understands the concept of how markets open and closes from a day-to-day perspective. They understand the exposures of 'fake-out' signals. These traders will usually realize profits or losses quickly. After a trader has gained comfort on the longer-term chart, they can then look to move slightly shorter in their approach and desired holding times. This can introduce more variability into the trader’s approach, so risk and money management should be addressed before moving down to shorter time frames. The best time frame to trade an asset will vary depending on the trading strategy you employ to meet your specific goals. The diagram above shows the time frames used by different traders for trend identification and trade entries. This is a part of my risk management series, so if you are interested in checking out my other posts, please check below!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
21
Complete Guide to Bitcoin Dominance & Alt Season CyclesHello traders. Here I will be showing a simple diagram of the whole Bitcoin dominance effect towards Bitcoin and Alt coins. The diagram is extremely simplified so that anyone can refer to this chart in the future. Many people have a hard time when an alt season starts; however, understanding the few simple rules of Bitcoin dominance can help you know whether you are in a bull market or not! In the above diagram, I am showing the complete relationship between BTC Dominance (BTC.D), Bitcoin's price, and Altcoin's price. You can refer to the chart above and use it to your advantage on positioning, timing, and risk management without the whole FOMO ordeal. So, what is Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)? Bitcoin dominance is the percentage that measures Bitcoin’s share of the WHOLE cryptocurrency market capitalization measured in percentages. It is not a 100% perfect metric to use, but it helps to analyze the macro-market since many people like to refer to it - so it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, and a self-fulfilling prophecy is what usually happens if everyone starts to use it. We can observe the total capital (money) flowing between alts and BTC with this chart and make some conclusions about the market’s current state. The chart above is showing that in most cases you’ll want to be in Bitcoin when Bitcoin Dominance is in an uptrend, and then be in alts when the Bitcoin Dominance is in a downtrend. We are witnessing that right now. When BTC and BTC.D rises, we psychologically assume that we want to be in Bitcoin, which then leads to a decrease in the alt coin market. For those who are interested in more risk management strategies, please look at the links below! Trade Safe! X Force
Editors' picks
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
110
Why Many Continue to "Miss the Train" - Trading 101Hello Traders. Thank you so much for the overwhelming support on the last post - we reached over 1200 likes - a new record and the best post of the month on Tradingview. Here I would like to go over why we all continue to fail buying the dips time after time from a market psychology perspective. This is a big problem for many of the traders, and we are all guilty of it. Let's take a moment to discuss all of the phases as shown in the chart above. 1. Your initial signal is here but you don't take it - because you are waiting for a second confirmation, 2. You wait for a retracement so you can enter into a trade, but doesn't happen, 3. Retracement comes along at the top, but you are thinking that you have already missed the big move, 4. You long at the breakout high, then the market dumps to support, and you think that the top is already in, so you sell, 5. Then it consolidates, then pumps. Price continues up and you start panicking that your approach was wrong. You are now either positionless or have waited too long after a 300% rally. The most important part of this approach is that you must have an idea of how Bitcoin has behaved over the past years. I have made an extremely detailed plan on where we are on the timeline - which may help with many investor's buying decision: In this post above, I show that Bitcoin is currently trading in a new bull run. Retracements occur, and it's important to position yourself within the correct timeline. As you can see, with the right indicators, we can position ourself even if we feel that we "missed the train" - as long as you know and can accept we are in a new bull run. Another important aspect is understanding the concepts of accumulation. Accumulations may either lead to a dump or pump, but if you follow the correct overall trend, we can easily see that we were accumulating for the upside. It's all about positioning! This is a part of my risk management series so please make sure to look at all of the related posts for risk management. Trade Safe. X Force
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
22
Why You Should Never 'HODL' Your Positions Up To A Certain PointHello Traders. Here I give a friendly reminder to all beginners and advanced traders that holding (hodl'ing) your position is not ideal up to a certain point. The math of percentages shows that as losses get larger (compound interest), the return necessary to recover to break-even increases at a much faster rate. A loss of 10 percent necessitates an 11 percent gain to recover - and that is where it goes all downhill. Increase that loss to 20 percent and it takes a 25 percent gain to get back to break-even. A 50 percent loss requires a 100 percent gain to recover and an 80 percent loss necessitates 400 percent in gains to get back to where the investment value started. Investors who get hit by a bear market need to be aware that it will take a while to recover, but the math of compounding returns will help the cause. Consider a bear market with a 30 percent drop in value, down to 70 percent of what the stock portfolio was worth. A 10 percent gain returns the portfolio to 77 percent. The next 10 percent recovers to 84.7 percent. Two more 10 percent gain years put the portfolio back to 102.5 percent of the value before the drop. So a 30 percent drop necessitates a 42 percent recovery, but 10 percent a year compounded for four years puts the account back into profitable territory. I will be doing a second part to this post on the idea of "DOLLAR COST AVERAGING" (DCA). What the math of stock market losses shows best is that investors need to protect themselves against big losses as shown in the diagram above. Mental or limit based stop-loss orders to sell stocks or cryptocurrencies are there for a reason. When a certain loss level is reached, it will pay off big if the market is moving into bear market territory. Investors sometimes have trouble selling stock they like at a loss, but they will like the stock or cryptocurrency if it can be bought back at a lower price. If you are interested in how to create the perfect trading plan, please see my previous post here: Trade Safe. X Force
Editors' picks
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
262
Bitcoin's Two Year Forecast - "When Should I Buy Bitcoin?"As Biden suggested, "It is a time for healing." - I believe it is absolutely true for a time of healing in all aspects of the world, including Bitcoin. What is the Stock to flow? (about this indicator) As suggested by the creator of this indicator, 'PlanB' : " SF = stock / flow . Stock is the size of the existing stockpiles or reserve. Flow is the yearly production." In simple terms: Stock = How many Bitcoins are currently in circulation Flow = How many Bitcoins are created each year ---------- Here I would like to explain the observations based on my own - these are the FIVE main phases of price action: 1. Price Halving Event 2. Price Discovery Phase 3. Price Continuity 4. Price Explosion / Blowoff Top 5. Price Maturity Without getting too much into the mathematical details and formulas on how this indicator was created, this is a perfect indicator, in my opinion, to show the overall observation of where Bitcoin stands from a visualized perspective, where it shows that Bitcoin can withstand anything in any certain period of time. The first and foremost, Bitcoin has not only have we survived the harshest conditions of the market for 2020 (and 2018 alike), Bitcoin's fundamentals are getting incredibly stronger by the day; furthermore, Bitcoin is now collectively seen as a form of investment tool and regarded by many as one of the best returning assets of the decade. I believe the next decade is yet to offer more when the fundamentals of Bitcoin is much clearer and clears up the issue of scalability and overall issues with price maturity. The most important aspect of this chart is to find where you can start investing Bitcoin . This answers the million dollar question of, "When can I buy Bitcoin?" The answer is NOW, according to this indicator. Why and based on what evidence? First, history is not indicative of the present price action, however, it does certainly rhyme with it. We can note that with each consecutive rise, it was usually after the halving events of Bitcoin . As we are now approaching into 2021, we are now putting our first step into the uncharted territory of new price discovery . Despite the heightened level of volatility in the market, I believe it's important to emphasize that long term investors are unlikely to be fazed by the recent drop - especially after the 2020 events. The current short-term holder activity is reminiscent of previous bull trends, and if we are able to survive 2020, how can we not survive 2021-2022. As such, if BTC recovers strongly from the recent drop, the chances of a rally continuation could increase. What will you do? We hope that you are able to be disciplined this time and learn from the past mistakes of every year, and it is increasingly showing that we are well on our way to new uncharted territories of ATH .
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
15
BTC: Understanding Healthy vs Unhealthy Bull RunsHello traders and investors, here I would like to compare and contrast the stark differences between a healthy and unhealthy bull run. I would like to dissect the 2019 bull run vs the 2020 bull run, as there is one major difference that I would like to focus on in terms of the differences of the two bull runs. The first thing that we can witness from 2019 is that we saw an incredible 300%+ bull run. This is no doubt an incredible feat for Bitcoin during that time, but it was merely impossible to know when to enter the market with no confirmation in sight. We have seen a series of higher highs being printed, with no real pullback until the end of the blowoff top where most have entered. After the real pullback, most were probably entering the market thinking it was going to go higher, which wasn't the case as we were seeing a series of bearish confirmations and sell signals from our lagging indicators and a bearish descending triangle. The second thing that we can witness from the current 2020 bull run is that it is much more extended and simply a matured bull run, especially taking into account of direct stock market correlations and the on-and-off decoupling of different assets. This year has brought interesting and new concepts of how the bull market is running, especially with the series of uneventful news such as the unfortunate COVID19 pandemic (my prayers are out for everyone to be safe!) and now the election cycle in place. In my opinion, this is actually one of the most healthiest bull runs we have had with all things considered. The fact that Bitcoin has responded to all negative news and events from 2020, the fundamental news of Bitcoin and the store of value idea is being shown within the price action. We are also technically seeing a higher low with each consecutive pullback, which is absolutely fantastic from a bullish perspective. Now the underlying question remains, "when should I enter the market?" Based on confirmations, we can enter safely when Bitcoin consolidates when we create a new 'higher low', possibly in the upper $9,000 to $12,000 range for the longer perspective. Remember, Bitcoin can still have impulse waves in between, but the overall point is making sure you are riding the 'waves' of the market, not the impulse waves. Trade Safe. X Force
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
20
Trading Hierarchy: What Really Matters in TradingHello traders, these past few weeks have been incredibly profitable for many traders (and many losses as well)! Here I would like to show you an investor philosophy that I always trade by when approaching the market. Many people approach technical analysis thinking it's the first and foremost thing they must learn, which in reality, should be the last. It's crucial to first understand that trading psychology and risk management is the MOST important factor when trading within the market. Even if you have strong technical analysis (which can never be perfect), you can lose if you have BAD risk management. You can lose even more if you are no patient enough and trade EMOTIONALLY. The sad reality is, many professionals who have traded for years, still have yet to realize this. I hope this small educational post shines light onto advanced and beginner traders. Everyday, I am witnessing traders who are making money not knowing why, or losing money not knowing why. One thing that I always like to advocate is that it's better to know why you lost a trade, rather than not knowing why you made money in a good trade. These are realistic expectations of the market, there is no simple magic pill in technical analysis . Trade Safe. X Force
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
34
BTC: How to Trade BTC Right Now - Smart and Disciplined StrategyHere we would like to suggest to you a breakout strategy that we know that can bring guaranteed profits for any trader. This is the most safest strategy that bring the highest rewards, lower risk, and still expose you to the market in a time of volatility. First things first, making a position with zero discipline is a recipe for disaster. We all would like to take a position right now and hope that it will go the anticipated direction of our long or short. No one knows where the market will be heading to, and although the market is in a considerably bullish state, it doesn't mean that it will just shoot straight (although we love for it too!). The best possible way to approach the current rising wedge we are seeing at the moment, is to make sure and buy or sell on the BREAKOUT. The breakout doesn't mean, "it's breaking out, I should get in!". It's simply, a retest of the breakout. A retest of the breakout almost ALWAYS occurs unless there is some kind of anomaly in price action (impulse wave) - but even this, is always followed up with some form of follow up pullback. Another interesting thing is we are trading below the legacy trendline from the log chart on the daily: Please let us know, are you bullish or bearish?!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
10
BTC: Market Cycle Psychology - Where Are We on the Timeline?Bitcoin is currently at crossroads for the adjusted market cycle psychology theory. As we were not able to secure 12K, it seems like the bears have taken control for the short term; however, Bitcoin is argued by many that we may be on to new highs. Keeping in mind with our incredible recovery from the COVID19 crash, is this merely a bull trap? We have seen a 200%+ return within a short amount of time and we are not too sure if this trend will continue. If Bitcoin is able to keep this recovery rate going, we will need an incredible amount of volume and power not only from large institutions, but the general public on a global scale - but we aren't seeing any evidence for that when we pull up the Google Trends keyword, "Bitcoin." We continuously see smaller bull and bear cycles within on our timeline, which can be a good or bad thing. With that being said, our continued advice for all traders is to wait for the clear break down or breakout to the upside. For all we know, we may be increasingly on a sideways cycle which may suggest further evidence for the lengthening market cycle theory. We would love to know your thoughts in the comments below! Trade Safe. X Force.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
8
Bitcoin: Understanding CME Gaps - A Full Perspective and GuideX Force Global Analysis: If you find our analysis to be helpful, make sure to support us by dropping a ‘like’ ------ In this analysis, we take a look at Bitcoin's rather peculiar tendency to fill CME gaps. What are CME gaps, and why do they occur? First of all, Bitcoin does not trade 24/7 on one specific market, which is the CME market. This means that at a certain point in the day, the market closes and trading stops altogether - just like in traditional stock markets. When looking at these CME gaps, an investor might conclude that they will be filled quickly within the next few days. And based on this reason alone, many traders will take a long or short position based on the gaps produced. If a gap is produced while price is moving up rapidly, a trader might conclude on taking a short position with the notion that the gap will eventually fill. While this is fundamentally true and a good trade setup because gaps have traditionally filled 100% of the time via Bitcoin's history, it can be still dangerous if the trader does not know how to execute the trade properly, especially if the trader is in a leveraged position. A basic understanding of major trend shifts, then taking CME gaps into the trader's strategy is a recipe for success. From a technical stand point, when a gap appears within the charts, it removes the immediate support or resistance and creates the tendency for most traders to notice this, which may be the reason why the new tradition of 'gap filling' has been a part of Bitcoin's price action since the introduction of the CME market. Either way, if price action moves further away from the gap, the higher probability of a stronger drop/pump will be, which may or may be bad for both bulls and bears. For our viewers sake, we have done the calculations to show 2019's high to current price on how long it has taken to fill. The average has been 63 days. Will Bitcoin's CME gap be filled before we reach new highs? Or will we see the gap fill, then run towards new highs? We leave that up to you. How to trade CME Gaps? Trading CME Gaps can be very tricky, especially if you take a position too early. As we have stated earlier, all of Bitcoin's CME gaps have been filled 100% of the time. This current gap we are seeing may be no different. It's a matter of WHEN, not IF. With that being said, the best possible way to trade this is to understand basic support and resistances. We are currently facing strong resistance at 12K, and if broken, we face the possibility of a longer wait time for the gap to be filled. This can be a good or bad thing: Good: BTC will be breaking major legacy resistances, and show sign of growth in the immediate future. Bad: BTC will be further deviated away from the current CME gap below major psychological resistance at 10K, and may further put bulls in disparity once the gap does fill. Bitcoin has retested major trend support technically twice, and it may desirable to retest it a third time before we can show true strength in BTC's trend. This can mean a longer accumulation phase and an possible impulse waves that will make Bitcoin's drop more severe based on our CME gap theory. Trade Safe. X Force.
Editors' picks
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
42
Head and ShouldersA Head and Shoulders Pattern is a chart formation that resembles a baseline with three peaks,the outside two are close in height and the middle is highest In TA this pattern it s essential to predict when a bullish trend will be changed to bearish This Head and shoulders pattern appear when: After long term bullish trend the price rises to a peak and after declined to form a trough The price will rise again to form a second high peak and declines again And third time the price rises also but only to the level of the first beak before declining once more The first and third peaks are shoulders and the second peak which is upper(heighest) will form the head,in this case head and shoulders will appear
Education
by CryptoRomaniaTD
2