BTC bubble burst but the bottom is close / what I did wrongThere's not much value to be had to say exactly where the bottom is, but I want to summarize what I (and many) have done wrong in the weeks preceding this bubble burst.
Still, first let's look at the bottom :
From ATH to neckline was a drop of 7250; target is 100% retracement to 5.5k.
From the bull trap to the bear pennant drop of $7750; target is about 3k.
From the second rising wedge to the bear flag drop of $3640; target 5.7k.
We now have FINALLY some volume. This means we're in the capitulation phase. Realistically we may expect the bottom between 3k and 5k.
In my mind, there's no doubt that the whales have overplayed their hands & lost control. The bubble is burst, and the depression will take some time. It won't bounce off like before.
Now, what have I done wrong?
1. On Dec 23, I posted that bitcoin would crash. However, I mistakenly thought my BCH wouldn't be affected as it was supposed to be the "cashening" moment. It was very obviously a bull trap & ABC correction was coming.
2. On Dec 28, I posted that bitcoin would crash after reviewing the long-term chart. I already sold almost everything. The chart was self-explanatory.
3. Beginning of Jan, I continued to be bearish, but the market went UP! Now I see it's because I looked at the chart too much & lost the big picture. I BOUGHT BACK 2/3.
4. Then I saw the bullish sentiment of the market, and thought BTC might not be a systemic risk. I BOUGHT BACK 1/3 IN SHITCOINS.
5. I also found some "triple insurance" that BTC wouldn't fall even though it looked like it was going to 7k. I OPENED TWO LONG POSITIONS ON MARGIN.
6. Last straw, I saw the two rising wedges & bear pennant but hoped for no kaput. I DID NOT SELL.
--------
Now I'm as fucked as everyone that has a bagful. But what's the lesson?
TradingView is a social media platform. People are looking for confirmation. Many "experts" here are just cheerleaders who hardly know anything more than you do. Don't believe in their posts.
Read the chart & be patient. What the chart tells you may not turn out immediately. It's very hard to time everything.
Be very careful with margin positions. Close 95% when it goes bad immediately.
Supposedly there's a lot of manipulation going on, but in retrospect the chart is very clean.
FAK fake news media & shills.
