WORLD'S TRADING TITANS: The Top 10 Traders Who Ruled the Market.This article is about the world of iconic traders. They've left a profound mark on the world of trading, inspiring countless traders with their strategies and insights.
Jesse Livermore
Jesse Livermore, often referred to as the "Great Bear of Wall Street," was a self-taught trader who started his journey at the age of 14 and became one of the most influential traders of his time. He made (and lost) several fortunes betting against the market during the 1907 Panic and the 1929 Crash.
Livermore's trading strategy was heavily based on price movements and market psychology, rather than intrinsic value of companies. He was known for his supreme discipline, focusing on timing, price patterns and his well-known adage: “The big money is not in the individual fluctuations but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.”
One of Livermore's core principles was the importance of letting the market, rather than emotions, dictate when to buy and sell. He believed in following the big market trend, also known as trend following. His rules around cutting losses quickly, letting profits run, and adding to winning positions are still religiously followed by many traders.
Lastly, Livermore emphasized the importance of patience in trading. He famously said, "It was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting...Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon." This highlights the importance of waiting for the right opportunities and not overtrading, a lesson that remains relevant for traders today.
Livermore's life serves as both an inspiration and a cautionary tale for traders, reminding us of the potential rewards and risks that come with trading.
George Soros
George Soros is a legendary trader known as "The Man Who Broke the Bank of England." In 1992, he bet against the British Pound, believing that it was overvalued relative to other currencies, notably the Deutsche Mark. His bet paid off, earning his fund an estimated $1 billion in a single day.
Soros' trading style falls under a global macro strategy, which involves making large bets on economic trends in various asset classes like currencies, bonds, and commodities across the globe. His ability to detect significant changes in economic conditions and market sentiment, combined with an aggressive risk tolerance, contributed to his extraordinary profits.
Central to Soros' approach is the concept of reflexivity, a theory he developed. Reflexivity posits that market perceptions can shape the underlying economic fundamentals, which in turn influence market perceptions, creating a feedback loop. According to Soros, markets are not always in equilibrium or accurately reflecting fundamentals, and these discrepancies can create lucrative trading opportunities.
Soros has been a prominent figure not just in trading, but also in philanthropy and politics. His trading career serves as a testament to the potential of a global macro strategy and the importance of understanding both market sentiment and macroeconomic fundamentals when making trading decisions. Despite his success, Soros' strategy involves a high level of risk and requires deep knowledge of global economics, and thus may not be suitable for all traders.
Paul Tudor Jones
Paul Tudor Jones is one of the most successful traders in the world, known for his ability to navigate and profit from volatile markets. He gained fame after predicting and profiting handsomely from the 1987 stock market crash, a feat which earned him a legendary status in the trading world.
Jones' trading style is predominantly macro, meaning he makes bets based on economic trends and events around the world. He trades in a variety of markets, including equities, commodities, currencies, and bonds, and is known for his versatility and adaptability.
An avid user of technical analysis, Jones employs chart patterns, price movements and other analytical tools to identify trading opportunities. He combines this with a deep understanding of market fundamentals to create a comprehensive trading strategy.
One of Jones' most well-known tenets is his focus on risk management. He is often quoted saying, "If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is simple: Get out." This reflects his belief that protecting capital and managing losses is more important than chasing profits, a strategy that has served him well throughout his career.
Jones is also known for his philanthropic efforts. He founded the Robin Hood Foundation, a charity that combats poverty in New York City. His story reminds traders of the importance of risk management, adaptability, and giving back to the community.
Richard Dennis
Richard Dennis, a commodities trader from Chicago, is a trading legend who rose to fame in the 1970s and 80s. Starting with a small loan, he quickly amassed a fortune, earning him the moniker "Prince of the Pit." But Dennis is perhaps best known for his role in a unique trading experiment that sought to answer an age-old question: Are traders born or made?
Dennis' personal strategy centered on trend following - buying when prices increase and selling when they decrease, essentially riding the market's momentum. He believed that price, and how it changes over time, is the most crucial piece of information for a trader.
To settle the debate on whether trading could be taught, Dennis and his partner William Eckhardt conducted the "Turtle Traders" experiment in the 1980s. They selected a group of individuals with no trading experience, trained them for two weeks using a simple set of rules based on trend following, and then provided them with money to trade.
The experiment's results were astounding. Over the next four years, the Turtles earned an average annual compound rate of return of over 80%. This proved Dennis' theory that anyone could learn to trade, given the right system and discipline to follow it.
Dennis' story is a powerful reminder that successful trading is not just about inherent talent but also about discipline, a well-defined strategy, and the ability to follow that strategy consistently.
Stanley Druckenmiller
Stanley Druckenmiller is a highly respected figure in the world of trading, known for his impressive track record and his role in some of the most legendary trades in history. As a fund manager for George Soros, Druckenmiller was instrumental in the trade that "broke the Bank of England," earning a profit of $1 billion.
Druckenmiller's approach to trading is top-down, which means he first considers macroeconomic factors and themes, and then identifies the best investments within that context. He is not averse to placing large, concentrated bets when his confidence in a trade is high. This approach requires a deep understanding of economics, keen intuition, and a high tolerance for risk.
Risk management is an essential aspect of Druckenmiller's strategy. He is known to go all in when he's confident in a trade, but he is also quick to exit a position when he realizes he's made a mistake. As he often says, "The first thing I heard when I got in the business...is bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered. I'm here to tell you I was a pig."
Druckenmiller has an impressive ability to make bold and accurate market predictions. For instance, he successfully predicted and profited from the dot-com bubble's burst in 2000, and later, the financial crisis of 2008.
While his aggressive style and remarkable intuition might not be replicable by every trader, Druckenmiller's story underscores the importance of understanding macroeconomic themes, being confident in your convictions, and the crucial role of risk management in trading.
Ray Dalio
Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world's largest and most successful hedge funds, has left an indelible mark on the world of finance with his innovative approach to investing and risk management.
Dalio pioneered the risk parity strategy, which aims to balance the allocation of risk, rather than the allocation of capital, in a portfolio. His "All Weather" portfolio, designed to perform well across various economic environments, is a prime example of this strategy. It is diversified across different asset classes such as stocks, long-term and intermediate-term bonds, and commodities, designed to balance risks of inflation, deflation, and economic growth.
Dalio believes that economic events and market behavior are cyclical, a concept he outlines in his book "Principles." Understanding these cycles, according to Dalio, is key to making successful investment decisions. He combines these economic principles with a fundamental and quantitative analysis to make his investment decisions.
Dalio also champions the idea of radical transparency in the workplace, arguing that open and honest communication leads to better decision-making and helps avoid persistent problems. He applies this philosophy to his own investment process, using a systematic, rules-based approach to decision-making that reduces the role of emotions and subjective judgment.
Dalio's approach underscores the importance of diversification, understanding macroeconomic principles, and systematic, rules-based decision-making in investing. While Dalio's strategies might require a high level of understanding and are not suitable for all investors, his principles and methodology offer valuable lessons for investors of all levels.
Ed Seykota
Ed Seykota is a trading legend and pioneer of systematic trading who used computerized systems to follow price trends long before such practices were commonplace. Notably, he turned $5,000 into $15 million over 12 years, proving the potential of trend-following strategies.
Seykota's trading methodology is deeply rooted in the principles of trend following. He believes in going with the flow of the market, buying when prices are increasing, and selling when prices are decreasing. Seykota’s approach was to identify long-term trends and then take positions in those directions, riding them for as long as they remained intact.
Seykota is also known for his emphasis on psychology and personal discipline in trading. He often stresses the importance of understanding one's emotional responses to gain and loss, and managing those feelings effectively to make rational trading decisions. Seykota famously said, "Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market."
Moreover, Seykota is a strong advocate of risk management. He believes that managing risk is a key element of long-term success in trading. He often talks about setting stop-loss levels and adjusting them according to market movements to protect his portfolio from significant losses.
Seykota's story offers key lessons in the power of trend-following strategies, the importance of psychological discipline, and the crucial role of risk management in trading. Despite the sophistication of his methods, the core principles behind Seykota's success can provide valuable guidance for traders of all levels.
Linda Bradford Raschke
Linda Bradford Raschke, a prominent figure in the trading world, is known for her technical and fundamental analysis of the futures and equities markets. With a trading career spanning over three decades, Raschke's success underscores the importance of consistency, discipline, and a thorough understanding of market dynamics.
Raschke's approach to trading is methodical and rule-based. She uses a mix of chart patterns, indicators, and market cycles to guide her trading decisions. One of her best-known strategies is the "Holy Grail" setup, which combines a moving average with the ADX indicator to identify potential breakouts in the market.
In addition to technical analysis, Raschke pays close attention to market fundamentals. She believes that while patterns and indicators can signal trading opportunities, understanding the underlying factors driving market movements is crucial to making informed decisions.
Raschke also emphasizes the importance of discipline and risk management. She believes that sticking to a well-defined trading plan, and not letting emotions influence trading decisions, are key to successful trading. As she often says, "Discipline is the ability to sit and wait."
Raschke's experience reminds us that successful trading requires a mix of technical knowledge, a deep understanding of market dynamics, and a strong sense of discipline. Whether you're a novice trader or a seasoned veteran, Raschke's approach offers valuable insights.
Michael Steinhardt
Michael Steinhardt, the founder of Steinhardt, Fine, Berkowitz & Co., is one of Wall Street's most successful hedge fund managers, known for producing remarkable annual returns over a 30-year career. His aggressive, contrarian approach to trading has left a lasting impact on the industry.
Steinhardt's approach is characterized by a philosophy he calls "variant perception." He believes in making investments that are contrary to prevailing market views, often taking high-risk positions that other investors shy away from. His ability to spot opportunities where others see none, backed by deep analysis, has been a crucial part of his success.
Steinhardt's investment decisions are informed by a comprehensive understanding of macroeconomic factors, as well as a thorough analysis of individual companies and sectors. He holds both long and short positions in a variety of asset classes, demonstrating a remarkable ability to navigate a wide range of market conditions.
Risk management is also central to Steinhardt's approach. He is known for taking large positions in his high-conviction ideas, but he also keeps a keen eye on the potential downside and is swift to cut losses when a trade doesn't go as planned.
Steinhardt's story underscores the importance of deep research, conviction, and risk management in trading. It also highlights the potential of contrarian investing strategies for those willing to buck the trend and take on higher levels of risk. Remember, however, that such strategies require deep market understanding and are not suitable for all traders.
Jim Simons
Jim Simons, the founder of Renaissance Technologies, is a unique figure in the world of trading. With a background in mathematics and a deep understanding of code-breaking from his time as a code breaker during the Vietnam War, Simons has pioneered the use of quantitative trading strategies, achieving extraordinary success.
Simons' approach to trading is fundamentally different from many of his peers. Instead of relying on traditional methods of analysis or macroeconomic insights, Simons employs complex mathematical models to uncover patterns in price data that are invisible to the human eye. His fund, the Medallion Fund, is famous for its consistent high-performance, with an average annual return of 35% after fees since 1988.
Quantitative trading, or "quant trading," relies on powerful computers to process massive amounts of data and execute trades. This approach requires deep knowledge of mathematics, statistics, and computer science, and it stands as a testament to the potential of using technology in trading.
At the heart of Simons' strategy is the belief that markets have more in common with the chaotic, unpredictable world of natural phenomena than they do with the logical, rational models of traditional economics. This realization led him to apply mathematical concepts to financial markets, with remarkable success.
Jim Simons’ approach, while highly complex and require significant expertise, shows us the power of mathematics and technology in understanding and capitalizing on financial markets. His story also highlights the potential for innovative, unconventional thinking in trading.
That wraps up our highlight of the top 10 traders who've revolutionized the trading world with their strategies, innovation, and sheer tenacity. But trading is ever-evolving and there are countless talented individuals out there. Who do you think should be on this list and why? Share your thoughts, let's spark a conversation.
Stay tuned for more educational content and subscribe to our page if you enjoy our educational materials.
Wallstreet
DJI (Wall Street): Pattern in the chaos.In this chart I show a tight summary of what's been happening with the DJI (Wall Street). I apply the theory of curves. It shows weakening momentum in its north side drive.
I refer to just a handful of fundamental issues for both the bulls and the bears . In recent times various forms of 'stimulus' has kept this market afloat. Then in the last 2 weeks, hope and greed surrounding the Consolidated Appropriations Bill 2021, gave some life but volatility in the market.
This evening (2020-20-23), there is nervousness because the Bill was referred to by POTUS as "a disgrace". That is a real cause for nervousness because POTUS has snookered himself i.e. if he doesn't veto the Bill. This is a matter of law and politics but entirely relevant to market volatility. I take no sides. All I know is that there is money to be made (and lost), wherever there is volatility.
But anything is possible, they say in these markets.
It's probable that price can move up as well as it can correct down. The main job of a trader is not be to right, but to limit how wrong s/he might be with controlled affordable losses. The other nice part of the job is letting winning positions run when the market is in his/her favour.
It's so simple - but NOT easy, obviously. 😄
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
It's not a bird. It's not a plane! It's a channel.
Nobody really knows for sure why channels develop. There are loads of theories. I'm not interested.
A channel is usually discovered late, obviously because the channel is evolving and then you see it. Unbelievable as it is, it is there.
So what do you do. Well, I don't give advice. What I do is understand that there may be limited opportunity to exploit. I say limited because when late in the game, price can break up out of the channel or down out of the channel. That means that if price approaches either end of the channel, it is a critical time.
All one can do is take the loss! It's called a stop loss.
Channels also do strange things like break out and then go madly the other way. If everybody had a magic formula how to work them, everybody would be zillionaires. It ain' t happening!
But there is still money to be made by following microtrends. That's where you follow small trends from 3 min to 15 min. These can take days to play out.
For newcomers it's not a good idea to work blindly in a channel. Find other indicators to assist.
Experience is also an important thing. As I always say blowing up 10 Tradingview paper trading accounts is far better than blowing up one live account. Get the safe experience almost totally for FREE!
THE BIG PICTURE: Health is everything! Man and Money vs Virus! I think this chart will be of interest, in overlooking the big picture. I say what I see and it is largely about a health timebomb approaching. So I deal with some technical and hidden fundamental issues.
Always say what you see on the charts! Remember TA is about sentiment - until reality catches up.
1 - A popped bubble.
2 - A reinflated bubble.
3 - A reinflated bubble struggling to remain inflated.
4 - Total daily cases of COVID continuing north.
5 - Total daily cases is rising above the area of struggle in the DJI.
Note that the DJI represents sentiment in the top 30 major organisations - so it is important.
I entirely accept that because total daily cases is summative, it is not a sound measure of the impact of the virus on health or control of the virus.
But think deeply - yes these are fundamental issues - representing ' reality '. The total number of people infected means that a percentage of them will suffer lasting effects of the virus e.g. central nervous system problems, mental health disorders, clotting disorders, lung problems, heart problems and exacerbations of previous illnesses. This means there is a mounting economic burden that isn't quite realised by leaders.
Why is biotechnology and services servicing those industries flourishing? Obvious - isn't it.
Healthcare directed at fighting COVID has left lots of people with significantly reduced care for non-covid related conditions. What happens to those people? It can be expected that their health will deteriorate. I can't go into a whole list of medical conditions - but it's massive. There is only minor focus on the economic impact of that. Nations need 'health' for workforces to contribute well to 'the economy' and to service debt.
Our leaders have focused on 'the economy' and preventing a major financial crash that was coming anyway. The virus was just the pinprick. There was in the UK recently a situation where health set against the economy. This was misguided simply because health is the economy.
When people think of health they usually think of physical health. However, there is another ticking time bomb of mental health problems . Nobody knows exactly how big this is gonna be. If you thought people with physical health problems were neglected, then it is much bigger for those with new or pre-existing mental health problems. People who are mentally disabled but were managing with aids, adaptations and supervision aren't getting all that as they would have pre-covid. Is this likely to improve in the next 6 months? I don't think so.
How can economies recover if they are beaten by seriously damaged physical and mental health of its workforces? Difficult one.
Financial hardships are projected to get worse into Winter, in the northern hemisphere. That's not good for physical or mental health.
I have little doubt that agents of the FED will pump this market north, and that Robinhoods will punch the air with the FED. However, you can't create a sound economy built on thin air. The bedrock of a sound economies are the health of people.
If money printing would solve everything, then GDP and employment (of various types) would be irrelevant. Surely they aren't irrelevant.
So - expect the unexpected, is what I'm saying. Near 100% retracements in the face of such fundamental issues has to be suspect. There could be a big 'drop' coming - so stay alert (no predictions today - only probabilities). Those hoping for Gold to rocket north may also have a surprise.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
US TECH: GAME OVER?Well, get your popcorn ready!! US Tech 100 is in a precarious position. This is another thing that rules the world!
Price ducked below 11000 - which is considered important. Will it stay below? How would I know? 🤷♂️🤦♂️ At time of posting price is a 10920-ish. Does this mean the backs of the USTECH and NASDAQ are broken? Of course not. Expect permabulls to do their stuff. We need them - for the big money transfer- so they're much loved! 🤣
Price action on this on the 3 to 5 min time frame today was soooo exciting! LOL. Call me a nerd - it's fine. LOL. 😉😎 If you wanna see what's really happening you just gotta get dirty in the trenches!
I'll be doing a video soon, showing how I look at price action in the indices, comparing the rule of Tech100 with other indices. Stock up on popcorn! 😂👳♂️
I don't do predictions - because I believe trend is more important than price .
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
JOURNEY SOUTH?The most important part of trading - especially with true trend-following - is stalking your prey very very carefully. The next is controlling loss.
Trend followers suffer heavier controlled losses - but also enjoy far greater gains - than those who rely on targets-based methods of trading. It is certainly not for 'everybody'. Only about 20% of all traders are true trend followers. Trend continuity trading is not trend-following.
Of high importance with 'stalking' any particular trend - because losses can be heavier - is the entry point. For example the ideal entry point in the chart snapshot would have been close to 26000. Anything much lower than that means risking heavier losses.
I'm often asked if A, B, or C instrument is heading north or south. Most traders when they ask this sort of question are not thinking in terms of time frame. They're mainly looking at price and thinking R:R ratio. In trend following all you can do is control the loss. You do not know how much you may eventually gain. That's why it's very scary! But this is not a tutorial on trend following techniques or strategy.
Overall though, one just has to pick a trend control loss and follow on that chosen time frame. It could be a lowly 1 min trend to a higher 1H trend - whatever you want so long as you can take the loss without flinching. I almost never get involved with higher than 1H trends these days.
For those new to trend-following, from my experience, a simple 5 min trend can take up to about 2 days before it reverses. A 15 min trend can last several days. 1H trends can last a couple weeks. Of course, they can be very short lived too.
Trend followers will also use harmonic patterns and other methods to assess key entry points. So 'we' don't have a problem with other methodologies. We'll use anything to get a pound of flesh out of the markets. But following the trend is the big thing.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
QUANTUM SLOWNESS - WHAT NEXT?Hopefully this post is both educational and entertaining.
I was having a discussion on line about the advantages of quantum speed trading - and how it has a greater power than the human brain. For sure it is more powerful at number crunching.
But quantum slowness is about trends! Look at the lovely 15 min trend. No big muscle computing power required. Just your plain slow eyes. If you had hugged that 15 min amber trend line on the break out of bad news, you would have been sitting very happy, after 24 hours.
So - true trend-followers do not care about brute force computing power. The human mind is superior for trends. Any arguments?
Some will be asking me what's next? How would I know? I don't have any ownership of the future. Ask your friendly guru out there - not me! :) :)
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
They have money to burn - you do NOT!FED-backed pumping or rather re-pumping of the popped bubble, has taken the DJI to unexpected levels. I think they're making the same mistake all over again.
Have a look. No predictions. I don't do predictions. Tough.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Second wave or no wave - the choice is yours! Just have a look. I present a case for probability south on the DJI (Wall Street).
Reality is catching up.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
COVID: POP! BANG!This is the latest picture for COVID-19 deaths in USA v UK. The virus has pricked the DJI'S bubble!
I don't see any plateaus or defined peaks. A peak is defined relative to a trough. No trough, or retracement means no defined peak. There is a whole lotta spin out there in lamestream media telling us that COVID has peaked. I can't see it.
The virus's pinprick caused a POP. From April 2020, it took off with a BANG! The FED believes it can fight a virus with free or easy cash. They don't seem to be winning (at this time only).
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
COVID-19 ATTACK, Fake news and the DJI (Wall Street)I present Tradingview data on COVID-19 infection rates and death rates in the USA - and compare those with the DJI (Wall Street).
Contrary to what we've been told by our leaders and mainstream media, there is no plateauing of infections or deaths in the USA.
NOBODY can say that the virus has peaked. The virus is charging north on exponential curves. Most of it's attack was in April 2020.
This bug is just getting started.
The chart shows the FED's QE infinity approach and how it has been failing.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile, and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
GET READY: A big fortnight ahead!This is an educational post - compliant with the house rules on text-based contributions - showing some of the tension between monetary policy taken by the FED and real world fiscal issues at deeper levels. Click and drag chart if all text does not show. Thanks.
The tension has caused whipsaws in the US Dollar, and price of Gold. The IMF has declared a global recession and several countries have gone into recession.
Reputable opinion out there is that the world is heading for an economic depression based on a 50 to 75 year cycle, which is coinciding with a 10 year recessionary cycle.
I have no doubt that central banks around the world will have limited success in propping up economies. I'm more concerned for the longer term view.
Last week extreme volatility took a break compared to the previous week. The next 2 weeks could see a return of volatility to indices and forex markets.
Stay safe, fellow traders.
Back to the past - 2008 - is this our future?In this educational post, I look back to 2008 to get a rough idea what may be in store for us in 2020.
This is a cautious exploration because what happened in 2008 was very very different to what's happening today (though there are many similarities).
This post does not exclude the possibility that the US and other stock markets may recover totally and head to the moon. Possibility is not the same as probability. How? It's possible that the sun may rise in the West tomorrow morning, but that is highly improbable.
Technical analysis is a good thing, but relies totally on historical price movements. Ultimately technical analysis is not immune to the real-world issues that affect price. The world is moving into a 50-75 year cycle for depressions - which is very different to the 10 year cycle for recessions.
Do NOT be influenced to make trading decisions based on this post. You have been told.
WALL STREET (DJI)- VIRAL WINTER IS UPON US! 😨I issue a stern warning to permabulls who are on DJI! Your time is over.
The chart shows possible further break down of price.
For probably the first time in history markets are suffering supply-demand shock. That means most things that are manufactured will be in short supply and low demand. This is due to:
1. lockdowns of consumers across the whole world,
2. restricted transportation,
3. serious interruption of supply chains,
The economic impact is severe. Travel and leisure industries have been hit hard. Airlines are about to go bankrupt, automobiles sales have been damaged, there is significantly lower demand for energy (oil, gas), medical equipment and supplies for hospitals have been affected. Food supplies are running low.
The COVID-19 is has effected a VIRAL WINTER upon the whole planet. This is analogous to a 'nuclear winter' (without radiation fallout of course).
The world is 'freezing up'. It will take a long time to unfreeze. Economies of many countries are being severely damaged.
The Federal Reserve in the USA and umpteen central banks have coordinated to make monetary and fiscal interventions; throwing trillions of dollars at 'the viral effects'. This will not unfreeze the supply-demand conundrum. It simply cannot. How? Because the problem relies on real people and movement of goods, services and international trade. The USA-China trade deal is basically on hold.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Making the most of LIMIT UP for ProfitLimit up acts as a guaranteed stop, this early in the trading day it is likely that it will pull back - especially as it follows DAX.
I traded a small amount (£100 per point) when it pulled back and bounced, perfect time to sell into the bounce, hold, and achieved 1000 points in around 90 minutes just before it turned negative.
The DOW was limit up throughout Asian session, so there is some positive sentiment - probably following the massive decline yesterday.
I have closed the position with 1000 points profit. I am expecting a slight bounce before possibly heading lower. I don't see it going back to limit up before the open.
WallStTraderandCoach - 5+ years of trading my OWN money in the DJI, Always use a stop loss, Always put my own money behind my trades. Turned 10k into 1M + in my first year. Strategy is one thing, you need to change your frame of mind if you want to be successful.
FLASHING RED!! BRACE! 🚑😲This is serious picture emerging right now. Have a look. I'm watching what's happening with Gold in relation to the Down Jones Transportation Index, and Bitcoin. This is all coronavirus related.
In tight summary, the smart money is moving into things that store real value - the kind that's unlikely to be affected by central banks.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
The trouble in Chinatown!There's not much interest in the Chinese stock index here on Tradingview but the ChinaA50 is absolutely important for what happens around the globe.
The A50 is in big trouble and more trouble is yet to come in weeks to months. This is just bad news for the rest of the world really.
I'll say no more here - follow some of the price action with me on the 4H.
How do virus attacks affect Wall Street?This is a very short presentation on how previous virus attacks have affected Wall Street (daily time frame). I go back to 2013, plotting what was seen.
This is relevant in relation to the recent Wuhan coronavirus (WCV). Mainstream media have referred to WCV as a "deadly virus". This is frankly nonsense based on current data.
The case fatality ratio (CFR) is an important measure in assessing lethality of a virus. The CFR for influenza A(H1N1) in 2009 was 0.45%. For ebola virus, it is overall >50%.
For the Wuhan coronavirus (WCV) which may not be one virus strain, the CFR is currently estimated at <3% (I cannot provide references here but people can contact me for links to info).
But hold on - the 3% is not (at this time) for large populations of those infected. The average age group of people who have been killed WCV is currently around 60. Did I say 'average'? Yes - I did (which means I know there are some people who have been around 30). Attribution of WCV has also not been 100% caused by WCV either. The 'average' age group may fall (or increase) with time.
In summary
- ebola is definitely a deadly virus - the markets barely flinched if at all to Ebola.
- estimates of lethality of WCV are currently not robust.
My conclusion -
The media is responsible for selling its news.
The media have been irresponsible in feeding panic, in selling its news.
News and panic are what rules markets more than hard facts and figures.
Will the WCV outbreak be the pin that pricks the bubble? I don't know. It could well be the first of the dominoes to fall, setting off a chain reaction for slow burn down - instead of a serious correction. OR - WCV may well be insignificant. If it is, then expect a raging bull market to rebel! I cannot foresee the future!
Declarations & Disclaimers: I am not a virus expert, nor a financial expert. This post is opinion only based on data fully available in the public domain. Opinions here are not be be relied upon in making financial or trading decisions. If you who reads this makes such decisions, your losses are your own - should you suffer a loss. You sue yourself if you lose money.
REVIEW: DJI (Wall Street), DAX and nuclear options. I've looked into the DJI and the DAX because they are connected. I also considered events affecting the Hong Kong index. In the text below, I consider China's 'nuclear option'.
Overall I'd say the probability is greater for the south on these indices (from this point in time). But caution - because there is a residual probability for the north and I can't know how far south the markets may go if the markets are with me.
These are very troubled times.
1. The markets are overbought because of QE4.0, lowering of interest rates and high hopes about a China 'Phase one' trade deal.
2. But there is trouble in the Hong Kong Stock market.
3. POTUS signed the Hong Kong Democracy Act which could cause the Chinese to retaliate in some way (nobody knows how).
The 15th of December 2019 is an important date on which $160 Billion of tariffs on imports to the USA, get lumped on China or they are withdrawn. If the tariffs are withdrawn, expect markets to head to the moon (stupidly). If the tariffs are applied, expect a correction of some sort.
Bond troubles
In other trouble China has begun the so called nuclear option of selling off US Treasuries. Note that Treasuries are bonds, which means that money is owed to China by America i.e. they represent a debt owed by the US.
Why would China sell off US Treasuries - which are debts owed to China? Perhaps because China expects the US Dollar to be worth less in times to come. It's like this - if I lend you money fixed in USD value, and then you decide to devalue your US dollar by various means, it means I'm getting back less value. For an exploration of Bonds go here .
China holds about $1.2 Trillion of US debt. A sell off of US Treasuries is said to destabilise financial markets. How - is a separate complex story. The point is that China's retaliation on the Hong Kong Act could be this 'nuclear option'.
The point of all this is that there are complex issues affecting the markets.
Disclaimer: Nothing shared here is investment advice or encouragement to trade in securities. If you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.