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THE FOOLS RUSHED WHERE ANGELS FEARED TO TREAD!!Well, well - 'everybody' (except me), is rushing madly bullish on the DJI, as there is now a 99% expectation that the Federal Reserve is gonna make not one but three interest rate cuts over the next 18 months. This post is relevant to risk management and trading psychology . The hard evidence is that rate cuts in the similar economic circumstances are followed by recessions. Don't believe me. See it for yourself at the Federal Reserve ! For an annotated version see here . I can find no hard data that leads me to believe that the US Economy with its $22 Trillion exponentially rising debt , is healthy. There is nothing in the fundamental data that would account for the sort of charge north we saw in the last week. The leap north is simply about greed and hope, that the FED will save the markets - which is not their business. Central Banks in India and Australia have already cut interest rates. For India the markets went south in response, for complex reasons that may not relate to the DJI. The Aussies are indecisive at this point. Now we have Draghi in Europe contemplating rate cuts. A fresh round of money printing (aka quantitative easing) is likely to happen. Look, all this stuff is like paddling hard in a canoe against a tsunami. The IMF warned us about the approaching financial tsunami. Instead our leaders worsened the situation by protectionist trade measures. This is what people do: when your life is under threat, you panic and protect your own - instead of cooperating. So - nothing surprising. All the protectionism is a signal to me that something big is coming. Looking ahead, if a collapse happens (and I'm not predicting), I expect Gold, Platinum, and Cryptos to rocket north. For forex, I expect all /JPY pairs to head south. AUD and NZD pairs tend to move south but the correlation is far from perfect. DISCLAIMER : This educational post is speculative. Opinions expressed here are not intended as 'advice ' even if so construed. DYOR! Your decisions in the markets are your own. If you make decisions based on this post and you lose money, you are totally responsible for your losses.
OANDA:US30USDEducation
by Captain_Walker
US Stock Markets: And what's Mueller got to do with you?!This screencast is speculative - and I invite the full brain power of Tradingview's community to consider the variables which might affect the US Stock Markets around this time. Let's do this together. The stock market has retreated, probably due to nerves about the Mueller report - among several other things. If the report contains nothing on which Trump is impeachable then, I'm expecting a pump north. Mueller's hit list so far has been : 1. PAUL MANAFORT 2. RICK GATES 3. MICHAEL COHEN 4. MICHAEL FLYNN 5. GEORGE PAPADOPOULOS 6. ALEX VAN DER ZWAAN 7. RICHARD PINEDO (Names are in all caps only due to copy and pasting. Names and convictions are all in the public domain, so I'm not defaming anybody.) Some may think that with so much dirt around it's unlikely that Trump will come out of this clean. Hey, this bull market is about Trump - let's not debate that. If Trump goes down the markets go down like lead balloons. Alternatively, if Trump comes out clean enough, expect bullish moves which may then be limited by other factors. Separate to Mueller's investigation and report, there are 16 other investigations into Trump. If just one sticks, there could be catastrophic collapse of the American markets - with shock waves globally, hitting Forex as well. We have other variables to consider : 1. The Fed 'money printing' press going to be turned up. 2. Bleaker than expected economic projections by the Fed and Draghi. 3. Expected weaker US Dollar - creating bullish pressure in the long term. 4. Flattening or inverted yield curves 5. Uncertainty's and delays on deals with China. 6. Potential Brexit shock waves. 7. Germany struggling against recession. 8. 'Housing' market bubbles in several countries including the US, in trouble. 9. US and Global debt totally out of control. 10 etc. .. and much more. Sorry - I don't know what's gonna happen. I do not give tips on entry positions.
OANDA:US30USDEducation
by Captain_Walker
2
Market Volatility The vix indicates how volatile the market currently is. Right now, the VIX is sitting at 14.40. A neutral market is indicated by a vix being at 17. Since the vix is sitting on the low end, we should continue to see the market stay relatively safe. However, with all the ongoing issues of a slowing global growth, trade, and poor economic data, it would be best to keep your risk appetite low until things smooth over. The VIX is currently trading below the 50 EMA and 200 EMA.
CBOE:VIXEducation
by ZakaryP
2
Plunge Protection Team stops kamikazi dive!Dear fellow traders, In this screencast I focus on the form of market fluctuations in 2007-ish and compare with what we are seeing in 2018. Reference this screencast against my previous screencast of 24th Dec 2018, on the PPT. The key points match fairly closely in the overall form . Strangely, the recent rebound is so telling of a story. What's that? This market was moving south like the kamikazi just 2 days ago. Something or somebody or some people stopped this kamikazi dive, all of a sudden - and amazingly caused the market to push north by some 1700 points. It takes a whole loadah dosh to move a market like that! There has been no earth shattering news that would excite investors that much, on Wall Street or the NASDAQ-tech-100, in the last 48 hours. If anything there is far more global financial chaos emerging, and the American economy is approaching bankruptcy (not according to me). The most plausible explanation for me, is that the Plunge Protection Team called in over last weekend has followed its orders and done something to move the market north. Other possibilities are of course, that the PPT did nothing - but a bunch of very wealthy folk decided to throw money at the markets. Anything is possible but not everything is probable. IF - and I emphasise 'if' - the 2007 pattern is representative of (lawful) market manipulation, it is also possible that we could all see a similar pattern emerge again in 2018/2019. I am not asserting or predicting that the form of the decline in 2007-2008 and its fluctuation will be seen in 2018-2019. I also emphasise that nobody should expect perfect (relative) price-point by price-point matching of market fluctuations. I'm suggesting that it is the ' form ' of the pattern that is most relevant.
OANDA:US30USDEducation
by Captain_Walker
When will the Plunge Protection Team strike?That the Plunge Protection Team has been called in means there is big trouble! The PPT is a real lawful entity designed to manipulate the US Stock Markets. It is officially known as the Working Group on Financial Markets (WGFM). It was created by by President Reagan’s Executive Order 12631 in 1988 following the 1987 crash. Its purpose is to lawfully prevent catastrophic market crashes. All the above factual knowledge is available from reputable sources findable via your fav search engine. This is both good and bad news. Those short in the market could protect their positions - and if they have enough guts take long positions for a limited period. It's not my business to say when to do this, as I have no advance knowledge of the future or when the PPT will strike! Note carefully that my language above is speculative, except that Dow and Wall Street are in big trouble. This is now common knowledge as the fall in the market has well exceeded the respected figure of 16%. If/when the PPT weighs in it'll have to be with billions and billions of US-Dollars, as loads of people are likely to set up sell orders for the next opening of the markets. That the PPT has been called in does not mean that they have a 100% chance of moving the US markets north. It all depends on whether they have enough to push back the deluge of selling they're likely to meet. Nobody I know, knows exactly how the PPT works. Perhaps they will get first orders, beating back all regular investors from selling or shorting . That would make sense. If they are successful, Forex pairs especially those with Yen and AUD could be affected by indirect effect. What it would mean for US-Dollar strength, is another problem. Note also that other countries have variants of the PPT, some operating covertly.
SP:SPXEducation
by Captain_Walker
4
Wall Street: When market hysteria meets realityIn this screencast I show how I interpreted the bull run on the daily and how I entered on a 30 min time frame. Everybody (almost) went 'Wooohoooo!" when Trump made announcements that trade war with China was on hold. There was also the Wooohooo thing when Powell made his politically correct statement, which actually didn't say anything about halting interest rate rises. Well.. well.. reality hit home shortly after each of those two events creating bull runs. To be clear, nothing I say means that the markets cannot go north like crazy. I simply don't care! Why? Because I control my acceptable loss.
OANDA:US30USDEducation
by Captain_Walker
Dow Jones (Wall Street) - the big wobble.Crystal balls are either cracking or working overtime around the world in attempting to predict what's going to happen with Wall Street. See also What rules the world? As I said so many times before, 'nobody can predict anything' in stock markets or any other market - for the simple reason that nobody owns the future. In this screencast, I show a bit of my own methodology. There was a potential reversal zone on the weekly, that was stalked carefully for entry point on the hourly time frame. The 1h time frame was exploited. Then stop loss tightened on the 2h time frame using a combination of the VMA and Vervoort. Looking ahead, the 1D time frame shows a serious change of sentiment of investors. Price busts violently through an Guppy (GMMA) investor zone. Those watching a 200EMA on 1D chart will see that there is hesitation as price moves into that zone. Price may respect that sort of zone for a while but it doesn't have to. The squeeze momentum indicator also reflects the sudden change of momentum. Whatever it is that has accumulated to spook this market, is significant. I do not need to know. The news has reported that Wall Street is fighting back. Well yes, but it's not a major fight back at this time on the 2H to 4H time frames. Avoiding a 'predictions model', I simply position myself to get stopped out where I think is best. As mentioned in the video I do factor-in experience in this market, which cannot be written into an algorithm or set of instructions. Each instrument has a different 'personality'. So, my knowledge and experience in Wall Street is brought to bear on my probability estimates. In other words, though I have a methodology, how I apply it varies from instrument to instrument. Overall, my assessment of the market on 1D and lower time frames, is probability for further down side. But for every probability in one direction there is a residual probability for the opposite direction.
OANDA:US30USDEducation
by Captain_Walker
Big trouble in 'Little China'In this video I review again some evidence that everybody can see with their own eyes. The US30 or the DJI is in trouble. There are observable signs of a trend change in a parabolic picture from the Weekly right down to the 4H time frame. The market is convulsing with hope and greed. But the geopolitical situation is very unstable at at this time, and a terribly overbought market as it is, is pretty fragile. Have a look at some entertaining and informative videos from Francis Hunt which goes into greater detail. DOW Jones - SKULL & BONES day crash to be real deal! Dow Jones and US Indices in deep sell off more serious then most suspect
DJ:DJIEducation
by Captain_Walker
Trade what you see, not what you hear.In this video I look over a few indices and the VIX. There is a problem i.e. the news is saying one thing, but the charts are showing something rather different. I look at some trendlines, channels and patterns. After many years in trading I'm no longer obsessed with the names of various patterns. The overall pattern is what interests me more. The news is about short term reporting. Rarely do popular news reports analyse trends in a robust way. Today I looked at some overview video report on the indices, from a reputable brokerage site. Not surprisingly the commentator was going on about MACD, RSI, Stochastics and support lines. There were other things considered like non-farm payrolls and jobs reports in the US. But even when going over the charts, he missed the obvious channels and other features heading south. This is the danger of listening to these broadcasts. You are at the mercy of the reporter who only has a limited time to assess the markets. Additionally all reporters hold their individual unconscious biases and blind spots. ' Am I biased in this video? ', I'm asking myself. I probably am. But all I know is that I'm seeing certain patterns that everybody else can see. The patterns are relevant to obvious trends, as they present themselves at this time. Note I said 'at this time' because the picture can always change. This post and video is predictive of nothing. I don't do predictions and likewise I set no targets. I simply follow trends and exploit patterns where I see them. When I enter a trade, the stop-loss truly means that I've lost that money. Although I don't gamble, by analogy when one goes to a casino and puts the chips on the table one knows that is the loss. So that's how I approach the loss in my stop-losses. As 'the man' once said, " Trade what you see ". I'll also add, "Don't trade what you hear ." (namely the news, blogs and gurus aplenty). The examples shown in the video is not a recommendation or encouragement to trade. Your losses are your own if you enter a trade based on any position shown.
FX:US30Education
by Captain_Walker