Beyond Technical Analysis
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Tesla - The Failed All Time High Breakout!Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) will reject the all time high first:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Tesla was actually not able to create a sustainable all time high breakout and if a stock doesn't move up, it will come down. However Tesla still remains absolutely bullish and is now starting to create a textbook break and retest which will eventually still lead to new all time highs.
Levels to watch: $400, $280
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Long-Term Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold: A New Bullish Cycle let's review Gold Waves!
Wave I (1971-1974):
The initial rise in the early 1970s represents Wave I of the first large cycle. During this time, gold prices surged significantly due to the ending of the Bretton Woods system and the subsequent decoupling of the US dollar from gold. The price increases were driven by growing inflation concerns and geopolitical instability. This is a primary impulsive wave.
The end of Wave I appears around 1974, where gold saw a significant peak.
Wave II (1974-1976):
Wave II is a corrective phase, where prices corrected lower after the initial rally of Wave I. This wave retraced a portion of Wave I and is a typical ABC correction (labeled as the ABC corrective structure on the chart).
After reaching the low point, the market started another impulsive wave up.
Wave III (1976-1980):
Wave III is the strongest and most aggressive part of the cycle. This wave saw gold prices skyrocket during the late 1970s, driven by high inflation, political instability (e.g., the Iranian Revolution), and the second oil crisis.
Gold reached an all-time high in 1980, marking the peak of Wave III. This wave completed the first major bullish cycle in the chart.
Wave IV (1980-1999):
After the peak in 1980, gold entered Wave IV, a long and complex correction that lasted until the late 1990s. This correction lasted nearly two decades and saw prices decline dramatically during the 1980s and 1990s as inflation subsided and global economic conditions stabilized.
Wave IV is characterized by long periods of consolidation, with gold fluctuating around lower levels.
Wave V (1999-2011):
Following the completion of Wave IV, gold entered Wave V, the final impulsive wave of this long-term cycle. This wave began around 1999 and saw gold prices move higher, culminating in a bullish run from 2008 to 2011.
The global financial crisis and the subsequent loose monetary policies (quantitative easing and low-interest rates) from central banks across the world provided the perfect backdrop for gold to rally.
Gold peaked at $1900 in 2011, marking the end of Wave V in this cycle, representing the peak of the primary impulsive move.
ABC Correction (2011-2020):
After the peak in 2011, gold entered a significant ABC correction. This correction can be broken down into three parts:
Wave A (2011-2015): The initial correction after the peak, where gold prices fell sharply, reaching lows of $1050 in 2015.
Wave B (2016-2018): A partial rally as investors regained some confidence, with prices climbing to around $1360 before the next decline.
Wave C (2018-2020): The final leg of the correction, which saw a further decline and then an explosive surge in early 2020 due to the global economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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New Cycle (Post-2020):
After the massive surge in 2020, the chart suggests that gold has entered a new cycle—starting from the COVID-19 pandemic's impact. This marks the beginning of a new impulsive wave (labeled as Wave I of the new cycle).
Wave I (2020-2025): From the lows of March 2020 to the current high, gold prices have surged sharply, indicating the early stages of the new bullish cycle.
Wave II (2025-2027): A potential correction (Wave II) could be expected, retracing a portion of the rise from the pandemic-induced lows. This is typical after any strong Wave I move, as markets consolidate before further rallies. the target area would be $2100! could these reasons cause this correction:
I suggest that once Wave II is completed, gold could see further strong moves in Wave III, which could lead to higher levels of gold prices—potentially above $4000-$5000 or even higher, depending on broader market dynamics and economic conditions.
Bitcoin, No matter what going below $90,000Hello Guys, Wish you a Very Happy Valentines Week.
a Quick update on Bitcoin, i do not see any upward positive rally for next few weeks , my direction and target for the same is below $90,000.. a setup with entry stoploss and target is placed in the charts.
good luck and good trading :)
Nas100 sudden crash heading towards which level?Hello Guys. Wish you a Great weekend.
A quick update on nas100 cfd, which we will witness moving below 21400 level , which is very high probability. just waiting for the Monday London session to frame the entry and stoploss.
stay tuned to this post. i will update the entry , stoploss and risk reward about this setup
good luck good trading
Opening (IRA): NVO March 28th 76 Covered Call... for a 74.50 debit.
Comments: Taking what amounts to a modest directional shot with a break even below the 52-week lows, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 74.50
Max Profit: 1.50
ROC at Max: 2.01%
50% Max: .75
ROC at 50% Max: 1.00
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max and/or roll out the short call if my take profit isn't hit by expiry.
USD/CAD trend at the beginning of the week - up or down?USD/CAD news:
🔆USD/CAD is currently at the resistance level of 1.4230 as the USD shows signs of rebounding in the US trading session. However, the outlook for the US dollar is weakening as the possibility of a Fed rate cut increases. The weakness of this pair is due to the weaker US dollar following the gloomy US economic data.
🔆In addition, the US 10-year bond yield is still maintaining its bearish momentum. With a decrease of 0.38% on the day
Personal opinion:
🔆USD/CAD is still maintaining its bearish momentum. The 1H chart is forming a Bearish Flag. The bearish flag pattern shows that many investors are taking profits after holding back the sell-off. When enough accumulation, the sellers will gather strength to push the price out of the lower price channel, pushing the price back to the old trend.
Plan:
🔆 Price Zone Setup:
👉Sell USD/CAD 1.4228– 1.4248
❌SL: 1.4290| ✅TP: 1.4180 – 1.4140 – 1.4100
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Quick update The German elections went as expected, the next step is to form a viable coalition which is of course we'll have some ups and downs, but generally speaking I'm bullish on the euro for several reasons.
First of all, the biggest treat that Donald Trump will impose some kind of tariffs on the European Union is high but also the impact is not as severe as we anticipate. Well he can do it, as he wish but at the same time European Union also can hit hard, on the other hand if the Ukrain War will end, that will give a substantial boost for the European economy.
The USA is isn't in the situation where he can take several front trade Wars with everyone , without literally destroying their own economy. Just to bemore exact they cannot let that interest rates getting higher since it will directly affect the government interest payment on their future debts issuence which is already freakinghigh.
At least not now .
Inflation in the European Union is coming down which is also indicating that may the ECB have to cut once again the interest rate, that's that's not matter anymore because more or less it's already baked into the price, and we are already looking for the next cycle of red hikes, but until then this is a one-way Direction. It's up. Do you say it sooner or later will be forced also to lower the interest rates which gradually will take out the interest of the US dollar, hence the Euro again just getting another catalyst.
Price targe 1,0617-1,0650
DEEP buy 1,0375
FROM THE CURRENT LEVELS ONLY MODERATE BUYS. FOCUS IN PULLBACKS AND BIGGEN THAN -0,75%
USD/JPY Upcoming Trend - Bearish?USD/JPY news:
🔆The USD/JPY pair climbs to around 149.80 during North American trading hours on Monday, driven by a weaker Japanese Yen (JPY) as 10-year Japan bond yields undergo a slight correction. The 10-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) decline to approximately 1.41% from 1.45%, the highest level in nearly 15 years.
🔆Despite this, expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again this year continue to support the Yen. Additionally, hotter-than-expected National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January has reinforced speculation that the BoJ may tighten its monetary policy further.
🔆On the US Dollar (USD) side, a strong rebound follows its drop to a nearly 12-week low. Weak US private business activity data has led to increased dovish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed), with the probability of a rate cut in June rising to 58% from around 50% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Personal opinion:
🔆The USD/JPY pair is still maintaining a downtrend in the medium term, besides the support for JPY from fundamental factors, technical analysis according to the trend line combined with Fibonacci levels and important resistance - support levels shows a clear downtrend, there is no sign of a reversal from USD
Plan:
🔆 Price Zone Setup:
👉Sell USD/JPY 149.50 – 149.70
❌SL: 150.15 | ✅TP: 148.80 – 148.20 – 147.60
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
SMCI - Play of the year!Correction - I made the last video on this SMCI opportunity two months ago in mid-December stating "Golden opportunity right in front of us?". And I was just thinking - is this too obvious? Clearly it was and I'm glad I took advantage. This was the most educated gamble of all time! Was worth every penny that could have been lost.
From here, I expect similar movement after sufficient liquidity is built in a controlled manner. Not rushing into another position here until I see certain levels and algorithms in play - But the breakout of our HTF selling channel is a great start and now would love to see ourselves build controlled liquidity prior to another breakout!
Happy Trading :)
BTC & Crypto Update - Exactly as I laid out a month ago! Here's what we're looking at in the near term. I know it stinks that we have to come down before sky rocketing again - but eventually we all knew liquidity would have to be built on cryptos, especially BTC, and that's what we're seeing now. We're ultimately bullish! These are bullish algorithms! But we need to build controlled liquidity in these algorithms to sustain further movements and breakouts to the upside.
Happy Trading :)