BTC-D
Began with near 50% drop from high last time judging by VIXStudy of VIX etc. and what could happen to bitcoin before halvening. Chart shows peak in VIX to MA cross. Just picked cross which had MA on close peaking afterwards. See what happened to bitcoin last time. Began with a near 50% drop from the previous month's high! NOT ADVICE. DYOR. (See previous posting on VIX and SPX for more info)
Trading by trends and important areas using the example of BTCCombined a teaching idea and a trading idea. Trading is relevant now. A pair of BTC/USD , a favorite pair of vanguards.
First, I will describe what is happening at the moment and how to trade, provided that you do not trade intraday. Then I will give training material for real use, and not fortune-telling on coffee grounds.
At the moment, a formation like a symmetrical triangle has formed from secondary trends, I wrote about its formation more than 8 months ago. When altcoins will start to be pumped up and under what conditions I also described was in this trading idea. As you can see, everything is going according to plan.
Also, an upward wedge has formed in an upward (bullish) secondary trend. In most cases, it breaks down. Perhaps they still reach the resistance of the downtrend symmetrical triangle (purple line), this would be reasonable for further growth.
An ascending wedge is formed when price growth slows and a narrowing figure forms. Prices can no longer rise further, but at the same time, they continue to very uncertainly update local highs. This suggests that the pressure of sellers (bears) is gradually increasing in the market. And the wedge is very likely to be broken down by sellers.
Imagine giving preference to more likely movements, but always have a backup plan. After all, no one knows the future, even the one who creates it. Therefore, in addition to working in a trend and with patterns, work with important areas of support, resistance, and intersection of trend lines. The more important the levels intersect with the trend ones, the more strongly they can affect the further price movement. In these important areas, either trend reversals and further strong breakouts along the trend always occur. I showed them on an example in the graph.
There should be a strategy and plan. At the same time, your strategy and plan should be plastic from market situations.
Think ahead what the crowd will do in certain situations and how it can be punished. Think about how you would do to earn, punish, and “honestly” deceive. Be flexible and smart, calculate in trading all your and other options for action in advance.
Remember - the crowd is always stupid, the crowd is always punished, if they give you money at the beginning, then only to believe in her genius and rightness, and then pick up many times more against her expectations! Think not from the position of a slave, but from the position of a slave owner.
The symmetrical triangle formation that I showed in my trading ideas more than 8 months ago, I saw in the TOP traders only at the end of November. Identify potential formation when the shape is not yet fully formed. Obviously belated observation. But this is how human psychology is built. It’s hard for people to think ahead, so they taught, they see only what they show. The blind man does not want to go without a guide, it’s more convenient.
Previously, media traders did not understand that according to the logic of things, to create the uncertainty of going to the "million dollars" or "$ 100", you need to draw a figure of uncertainty on a global scale, with equal working out up / down in a ratio of 50/50 - a symmetrical triangle is ideal . In any case, the crowd can be deceived on a large scale against its expectations. That figure of such enormous size! When breaking up / down, the triangle fulfills the TA along its width - a figure of this magnitude has a fantastic, shocking working out in any direction.
The faith of the majority imposed by the minority destroys the mountains and minor minority deposits.
If we consider that, according to the rules of TA, in which the majority of the crowd believes, but does not understand why it works / does not work in certain situations. If they believe, then they follow. If they follow, it means by faith - they buy / sell, place orders. Unconscious action - embodies the theory into reality, the main thing for the guide is to direct their faith in the right direction and shape their thinking.
Somewhere the rules of technical analysis work, and somewhere they work only because someone allows them to work. Playing along with the crowd in what she believes.
The ideal option is when they push the price into a corner, they will decide what to do depending on what the crowd will believe in.
Probably there will be massive FUD news, bad / good on all state and hamster fronts, naturally in order to inspire uncertainty. Uncertainty and the "opportunity to not have time" to buy / sell - a friend of the manipulator.
Give the crowd faith in the price movement that they want, give them a sweet illusion of their faith. Let them believe in their strength and genius. And then kill the faith at the most unexpected moment.
It is necessary to instill doubt. No one will take passengers ... Passengers must stay on the platform. And whoever gets knocked off by the most inadequate Stop-loss will first wait, doubt, bite their elbows - and then they will jump into a train that has already gone far.
In the game against the crowd, only time decides the question of when the average zeroing of the deposit in the average person will occur.
It is also necessary not to exclude the option that when they adjust the price to the resistance of the triangle (a downtrend), everyone will believe that, now everyone will push the price down from resistance - a breakdown of the formation will occur.
One must understand that everything is done against the faith of the majority. I often use this in my trading.
80% of cases allow the crowd to earn + 20%, only to then take away 80% from her.
Here is a trading idea with the potential formation of a symmetrical triangle.
The idea was published in June 2019.
BTC is the possible formation of a global triangle. Altpump
BTC / USD This formation looks like this on a global scale from the very beginning of the history of bitcoin.
The same trading idea was published more than 8 months ago in June 2019.
The main thing in this work is always to trade in a trend. You should never go against the trend.
On a bull trend it is better to always work on the bull side; on a bearish trend, on a bearish side. Always follow the trend!
A trend is called a visually detectable rise or fall in price.
Types of trend:
1) Rising (bullish) - the market is growing;
2) Downward (bearish) - the market is falling;
3) Flat (horizontal, lateral) - movement is observed in the horizontal range.
According to the Dow theory, there are 3 types of trends:
1) main.
2) secondary.
3) insignificant (small).
The main trend is a key market movement. To determine it, you need to open a larger timeframe on the chart, say, monthly or weekly. This global trend ultimately affects everything, including secondary and insignificant trends. According to the Dow theory, the global trend lasts 1-3 years, which, however, can change.
The main trend remains valid until there are clear indications of its completion. One such indication may be, for example, closing the price below the trend line.
A secondary trends , as a rule, goes against the main trend or acts as a correction to it. This is how the main trend can go up, and secondary trends - down.
According to the Dow theory, secondary trends last from 3 weeks to 3 months, and the rollback against the main trend lasts from 30 to 60% of its movement. Also, the secondary trend is usually much more volatile than the main one. All these values are conditional, depending on the characteristics of the trading instrument itself.
Minor trend (small) . In theory, this is a market movement lasting up to several weeks. As a rule, it represents a correction to a secondary trend. In reality, the duration of the trend depends on the trading instrument in question.
________________________________________13
A trend has three phases. According to the Dow theory, each trend has 3 key phases:
1) phase of accumulation (distribution).
2) the phase of public participation.
3) phase of panic (realization).
Read more about Dow theory, trend types, and phases in this tutorial:
TRAINING. Theories of the Dow. Types of trends. Phase TRON. Still a little)
Going against the trend is the same thing that falls under the locomotive and hoping that it will not transmit you, but will bounce off of you!
When working with a trend, it is very important to determine the correct trend. Understand which trend you are in and which particular trend you are trading. Each timeframe has its own trend. The market is fractal. Consists of small as big matryoshka.
Trading is the hard way to easy money. It is open to all, only not all will pass ... The more a person is fixated on the final result, and not on the action now, the less chance he has to go this way to the end. Most of these characters, which means the market will still be profitable.
To determine the main trend, a good weekly or monthly chart is suitable, secondary and insignificant - a daily and even smaller timeframe. These trends that are relevant for trading now on the BTC / USD pair I showed on the chart with important areas of trend reversal.
When working in a trend near important areas of a trend break, do not try to buy / sell at lows / highs, work in those price areas where there is liquidity. Sell at the very maximum and buy at the very minimum - leave the hamsters. When confirming a trend reversal, exit the position. Do not be greedy in the trade. Greed - begets poverty.
________________________________________18
Also under the article I attached 20 teaching ideas, many teaching ideas have material that you will never find in TA books. How it’s not customary to talk and show about it).
In almost all ideas, training was online "on a live schedule" in real trading. I did not show "skill" on old schedules.
Trading by trends and important areas using the example of BTCCombined a teaching idea and a trading idea. Trading is relevant now. A pair of BTC/USD, a favorite pair of vanguards.
First, I will describe what is happening at the moment and how to trade, provided that you do not trade intraday. Then I will give training material for real use, and not fortune-telling on coffee grounds.
At the moment, a formation like a symmetrical triangle has formed from secondary trends, I wrote about its formation more than 8 months ago. When altcoins will start to be pumped up and under what conditions I also described was in this trading idea. As you can see, everything is going according to plan.
Also, an upward wedge has formed in an upward ( bullish ) secondary trend. In most cases, it breaks down. Perhaps they still reach the resistance of the downtrend symmetrical triangle (purple line), this would be reasonable for further growth.
An ascending wedge is formed when price growth slows and a narrowing figure forms. Prices can no longer rise further, but at the same time, they continue to very uncertainly update local highs. This suggests that the pressure of sellers (bears) is gradually increasing in the market. And the wedge is very likely to be broken down by sellers.
Imagine giving preference to more likely movements, but always have a backup plan. After all, no one knows the future, even the one who creates it. Therefore, in addition to working in a trend and with patterns, work with important areas of support, resistance, and intersection of trend lines . The more important the levels intersect with the trend ones, the more strongly they can affect the further price movement. In these important areas, either trend reversals and further strong breakouts along the trend always occur. I showed them on an example in the graph.
There should be a strategy and plan. At the same time, your strategy and plan should be plastic from market situations.
Think ahead what the crowd will do in certain situations and how it can be punished. Think about how you would do to earn, punish, and “honestly” deceive. Be flexible and smart, calculate in trading all your and other options for action in advance.
Remember - the crowd is always stupid, the crowd is always punished, if they give you money at the beginning, then only to believe in her genius and rightness, and then pick up many times more against her expectations! Think not from the position of a slave, but from the position of a slave owner.
The symmetrical triangle formation that I showed in my trading ideas more than 8 months ago, I saw in the TOP traders only at the end of November. Identify potential formation when the shape is not yet fully formed. Obviously belated observation. But this is how human psychology is built. It’s hard for people to think ahead, so they taught, they see only what they show. The blind man does not want to go without a guide, it’s more convenient.
Previously, media traders did not understand that according to the logic of things, to create the uncertainty of going to the "million dollars" or "$ 100", you need to draw a figure of uncertainty on a global scale, with equal working out up / down in a ratio of 50/50 - a symmetrical triangle is ideal . In any case, the crowd can be deceived on a large scale against its expectations. That figure of such enormous size! When breaking up / down, the triangle fulfills the TA along its width - a figure of this magnitude has a fantastic, shocking working out in any direction.
The faith of the majority imposed by the minority destroys the mountains and minor minority deposits.
If we consider that, according to the rules of TA, in which the majority of the crowd believes, but does not understand why it works / does not work in certain situations. If they believe, then they follow. If they follow, it means by faith - they buy / sell, place orders. Unconscious action - embodies the theory into reality, the main thing for the guide is to direct their faith in the right direction and shape their thinking.
Somewhere the rules of technical analysis work, and somewhere they work only because someone allows them to work. Playing along with the crowd in what she believes.
The ideal option is when they push the price into a corner, they will decide what to do depending on what the crowd will believe in.
Probably there will be massive FUD news, bad / good on all state and hamster fronts, naturally in order to inspire uncertainty. Uncertainty and the "opportunity to not have time" to buy / sell - a friend of the manipulator.
Give the crowd faith in the price movement that they want, give them a sweet illusion of their faith. Let them believe in their strength and genius. And then kill the faith at the most unexpected moment.
It is necessary to instill doubt. No one will take passengers ... Passengers must stay on the platform. And whoever gets knocked off by the most inadequate Stop-loss will first wait, doubt, bite their elbows - and then they will jump into a train that has already gone far.
In the game against the crowd, only time decides the question of when the average zeroing of the deposit in the average person will occur.
It is also necessary not to exclude the option that when they adjust the price to the resistance of the triangle (a downtrend), everyone will believe that, now everyone will push the price down from resistance - a breakdown of the formation will occur.
One must understand that everything is done against the faith of the majority. I often use this in my trading.
80% of cases allow the crowd to earn + 20%, only to then take away 80% from her.
Here is a trading idea with the potential formation of a symmetrical triangle.
The idea was published in June 2019.
BTC is the possible formation of a global triangle. Altpump
BTC / USD This formation looks like this on a global scale from the very beginning of the history of bitcoin .
The same trading idea was published more than 8 months ago in June 2019.
The main thing in this work is always to trade in a trend. You should never go against the trend.
On a bull trend it is better to always work on the bull side; on a bearish trend , on a bearish side. Always follow the trend!
A trend is called a visually detectable rise or fall in price.
Types of trend:
1) Rising ( bullish ) - the market is growing;
2) Downward ( bearish ) - the market is falling;
3) Flat (horizontal, lateral) - movement is observed in the horizontal range.
According to the Dow theory, there are 3 types of trends:
1) main.
2) secondary.
3) insignificant (small).
The main trend is a key market movement. To determine it, you need to open a larger timeframe on the chart, say, monthly or weekly. This global trend ultimately affects everything, including secondary and insignificant trends. According to the Dow theory, the global trend lasts 1-3 years, which, however, can change.
The main trend remains valid until there are clear indications of its completion. One such indication may be, for example, closing the price below the trend line .
A secondary trends, as a rule, goes against the main trend or acts as a correction to it. This is how the main trend can go up, and secondary trends - down.
According to the Dow theory, secondary trends last from 3 weeks to 3 months, and the rollback against the main trend lasts from 30 to 60% of its movement. Also, the secondary trend is usually much more volatile than the main one. All these values are conditional, depending on the characteristics of the trading instrument itself.
Minor trend (small) . In theory, this is a market movement lasting up to several weeks. As a rule, it represents a correction to a secondary trend. In reality, the duration of the trend depends on the trading instrument in question.
________________________________________13
A trend has three phases. According to the Dow theory, each trend has 3 key phases:
1) phase of accumulation (distribution).
2) the phase of public participation.
3) phase of panic (realization).
Read more about Dow theory, trend types, and phases in this tutorial:
TRAINING. Theories of the Dow. Types of trends. Phase TRON. Still a little)
Going against the trend is the same thing that falls under the locomotive and hoping that it will not transmit you, but will bounce off of you!
When working with a trend, it is very important to determine the correct trend. Understand which trend you are in and which particular trend you are trading. Each timeframe has its own trend. The market is fractal . Consists of small as big matryoshka.
Trading is the hard way to easy money. It is open to all, only not all will pass ... The more a person is fixated on the final result, and not on the action now, the less chance he has to go this way to the end. Most of these characters, which means the market will still be profitable.
To determine the main trend, a good weekly or monthly chart is suitable, secondary and insignificant - a daily and even smaller timeframe. These trends that are relevant for trading now on the BTC / USD pair I showed on the chart with important areas of trend reversal.
When working in a trend near important areas of a trend break, do not try to buy / sell at lows / highs, work in those price areas where there is liquidity. Sell at the very maximum and buy at the very minimum - leave the hamsters. When confirming a trend reversal, exit the position. Do not be greedy in the trade. Greed - begets poverty.
________________________________________18
Also under the article I attached 20 teaching ideas, many teaching ideas have material that you will never find in TA books. How it’s not customary to talk and show about it).
In almost all ideas, training was online "on a live schedule" in real trading. I did not show "skill" on old schedules.
THE HOOK TRADE ... OUTPLAYING A BULL TRAPThis is my favorite trade. It is simple, logic, sure and damn effective.
For this trade you have to identify 2 things.
A trend and a price equilibrium.
In this example we have three clear bullish impulse and 2 corrections.
After the top at 10480 there was a decreasing selling pressure over the following three candles (smaller candle bodies). The firth candle was positive and with same size as the third suggesting the formation of a price equilibrium over 4 days and a possible new higher low. The fifth candle confirmed that the trend was resumed and the buying pressure overcame the selling pressure.
As the price action resumed the trend and equilibrium was broken on the upper side, a break of the price under the equilibrium is a strongest predictor of trend inversion and short a position can be safely opened. Target is a full retracement equivalent to the price retracement from the top to the equilibrium.
Top to equilibrium = equilibrium to target
BIO
Bitcoin Retraces But What About The Altcoins?We know many of you are really interested in the smaller altcoins...
The altcoins market continues to grow stronger and in bullish potential, here is what will happen next.
Now, before we get started, it is always necessary to make this small but very important distinction when we talk about Altcoins.
Conventional analysts here talk about Bitcoin and Altcoins.
When they say Altcoins they are mainly referring to the big ones, the TOP10: ETH, ADA, LTC, TRX, BCH, EOS, XRP, USDT, BNB, and XLM...
(Not necessary the TOP10 but those with the biggest market cap.)
When we/I/us mention Altcoins, we are always exclusively talking about ALL ALTCOINS minus the TOP10.
When it comes to market capitalization and the bullishness of the market, we have to separate these bigger altcoins from the smaller ones for two reasons:
1) These bigger altcoins move together with Bitcoin (Bitcoin is now dropping strong, these as well).
Normally, we tend to see altcoins detach (move inverse) to Bitcoin in a bullish cycle... Right now, you can see the Binance and Bittrex altcoins growing, as well as those on other exchanges.
2) They do not behave as the smaller alts.
So we can see the altcoins chart (TOTAL2) full bearish and going lower while "the Altcoins Market continues to Grow" .
Even with that said, they are still producing higher highs and higher lows, meaning that the entire market is now in full bullish mode.
What Happens To The Altcoins?
As I've said many times before, this is only the beginning.
Feel free to buy up on your favorite pairs.
Feel free to take your time to research, make your choice, buy and hold.
The cryptocurrency markets are very likely to grow for years to come.
This is Alan Masters...
Thanks a lot for your support.
Namaste.
How to see where Bitcoin is heading and when to trade long/shortUsing a weekly log chart showing Bitcoin from when it was only 1 cent up to today's prices of around 9k. In regards to anything mentioned below wait for BTC to close twice above or below any level mentioned for full confirmation.
Indicated is each halving of BTC on the chart with the vertical red lines (close enough to date as can't do exact when using weekly chart). The upcoming halving date is estimated.
In regards to the date ranges showing bars/days in light purple, you can see with the halving in 2016 that the bull rally afterwards took longer than the previous time. The date ranges in dark purple showing bars/days is from one halving to the next halving which also took a longer time than previously.
The price ranges in yellow/orange show the price rise from one halving to the next.
The Gaussian Channel shows that when it turns green after being red, the price continues to rise until the next all time high.
The yellow rectangle box indicates where the EMA 10 has gone under the MA 21 on the weekly chart. With the 10 under the 21 and BTC trading under the 21 at the same time BTC is in a new bear cycle. You can see there is 1 bear cycle each halving except for this current yellow box BTC is in now, indicated where the ? is on the chart. BTC has not had 1 false breakout this halving, so this yellow box BTC is in currently could be a false breakout.
The flags show where there was a false breakout of the crossing of the 10 over/under 21.
When the EMA 10 is above the MA 21 and BTC doesn't trade under the MA 21 on weekly chart, BTC is in a bull cycle and prices continue to rise until the next all time high.
Hopefully you can see where BTC will go each week using these indications and trade accordingly.
Happy trading legends!
HTBB
Double ZigZag Elliott Wave 4hrDouble three is a sideways combination of two corrective patterns including zigzag, flat, and triangle. When two of these corrective patterns are combined together, we get a double three
Guidelines
• A combination of two corrective structures labelled as WXY
• Wave W and wave Y subdivision can be zigzag, flat, double three of smaller degree, or triple three of smaller degree
• Wave X can be any corrective structure
• WXY is a 7 swing structure
Bitcoin Bull Flag : 30 / 40 / 50 K On The Horizon Contrary to popular belief, we have been forming a large bull flag since the market flipped bullish back in February. The next move up will be denoted by a significant swing low. As you can see from my commentary I believe the candle we are forming currently is the swing low we need to move toward 30 / 40 / 50 K
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Bitcoin head and shoulders and how to trade themwanted to post this because I see so many people commenting on and trading these patterns "incorrectly."
I put incorrectly in quotes bc I acknowledge that it's subjective. This is ideal from a risk/reward standpoint. Whether one is right or wrong really doesn't mean that much in trading if you make a lot more money when you are right than when you are wrong (or vice versa).
The most important thing is risk/capital management and what chart patterns are good for is identifying levels of maximum profitability. I was influenced to make this post from a recent comment of Peter Brandt on twitter which seemed to confuse people but he is absolutely correct. His comment was
"I have made my living since 1975 trading futures markets using charts
My conclusion on chart trading:
1. Charts do NOT predict prices
2. Most chart patterns fail
3. Charts simply tell us where a market
has been
4. The only value in charts is for trade/risk management"
Psychology in trading. Manipulation of consciousness Bitcoin 666Bitcoin's main trend is upward. Which formed the ascending channel .
Always trade with the trend. Decide in which trend you are trading and on which timeframe. Decide on strategy and risk management.
Your first enemy is a lack of experience and knowledge. Your second enemy is greed and a sense of lost profits.
You always have time to make money, the market will not run away from you, but money in the absence of experience and knowledge will run away.
On a bull trend it is better to always work on the bull side; on a bearish trend , on a bearish side. Always follow the trend! Going against the trend is the same thing that falls under the locomotive and hoping that it will not overeat you, but will bounce off of you!
There should be a strategy and plan. At the same time, your strategy and plan should be plastic from market situations.
You need to not only know the rules of technical analysis , but also understand what and how and why it works.
Knowledge of technical analysis and the psychology of the crowd will make you in trading - God.
If you are like everyone else, then the result will be like everyone else.
Those people who rely on quick profits without effort and time are doomed to give their modest deposit more smart and hardworking. For the minority to earn money, the majority need to lose money in the market. The more the majority plays according to the rules imposed by the minority, the more money is lost. Consequently, a minority earns. To earn, you need someone to lose! When a minority needs it, the rules of technical analysis stop working. The faith of the majority imposed by the minority destroys the mountains and minor minority deposits.
In the game against the crowd, only time decides the question of when the average zeroing of the deposit in the average person will occur.
Those traders who are sure that success depends on only one successful purchase, retention of the asset for a short time, and then sales are many times more expensive - are doomed to zero the deposit. This is what the majority think, which means that this is an erroneous opinion. Thanks to this majority faith, the minority earns. Trading is not only work - it is creativity and relaxation!
Remember, trading is a game of probabilities . Who trades from the situation created in the market - earns.
Who trades on the basis of what he wants - receives a loss.
The crowd trades out of their desires, not market probabilities. The crowd always loses.
Thanks to the thinking and desires of the crowd, we earn.
There are no accidents, there are random patterns that must be understood and used.
Coincidences are planned actions disguised as randomness.
369-27-669-27
3075-1170-1666-444-27-01-20
310-130-23-13-06-02-2020-13
371-27-671-27
Money is not the meaning of life, but a tool for life!!!
Appreciate the time of your life in this world - this is really a limited resource . Time will pass, life will go.
Have you been born in this world for a cut paper of money that you will never have in your desired quantity? Think it over.
Also think about patterns.
Why is it that everyone who wants to have a lot of money remains very poor. And the opposite is true - who does not pursue the amount of money, but does good deeds, receives fantastic amounts in a short time that the “supplicant” and “wait for money” will never receive for all their wretched existence. How to give such is not safe. The crowd with their desires is crazy and selfish. To give to such is tantamount to destroying them. The world is honest. Who creates - he receives.
Most want to receive - but do not give anything in return. This is the secret of poverty.
Understand the world, understand yourself - life will become meaningful, understandable and easy.
CRITICAL THINKERS!Let’s say you have been down since.... down to the level of 6k. Paid no attention to those that called you a Joke, When You get determined and, while on your Pace, you could make a 20k And Surely, you will look back and BLESS all that has been supporting you and all that Never gave up On You!
THINK!!!
(Educational) Trade Management Life Cycle using ETHUSD In this video I cover some of the techniques I use for trade management. I rarely post about how I specifically manage trades. Enjoy!
*Side notes*
-2% of 10,000 is $200. I said $2,000 but then corrected myself :)
-I stated I have probably haven't lost more than 5 consecutive trades. Honestly, I probably have but it has been a while. Due to my defensive trading nature it's more likely I would take a string of losses and break-evens, but rarely a large string of straight losses.