Nasdaq (March 2025) - NFP Week! #S1E4It is very evident that whenever there are indecisions around global trade or policies, the market tends to freeze up and spew out error codes.
From the market opening on Sunday, we have been exposed the the wild, aggressive swings that follows with Trading and many gaps has appear.
Do you think this has anything to do with the decision to pause the tariffs Donald Trump was planning on implementing on Mexico and Canada?
Remember, the tariffs might sound positive for the strength of the dollar but US businesses will have to fork out the extra in logistics and taxes if the tariffs was to go ahead.
How exposed are US consumers to price hikes?
Looking forward to the UK interest rates being released today as well as NFP on friday.
It'll be a WILD ride!
Candlestick Analysis
Nasdaq-100 Wave Analysis – 5 February 2025
- Nasdaq-100 reversed from pivotal support level 20800.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 21800.00
Nasdaq-100 index previously reversed up from strongly the pivotal support level 20800.00, which has been steadily reversing the price from the end of December.
The support level 20800.00 was further strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band, support trendline of the daily up channel from September and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from October.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Nasdaq-100 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 21800.00 (top of the previous waves B and 1).
WTI selloff stalls around cluster of big levelsWTI crude has seen a 11% correction from its January high, and 11 of the past 13 days since the high have been down days. But there is a glimmer of hope for bulls as prices are holding above several key levels of support, just above the $70 handle.
Tuesday's bullish pinbar held above respected the 200-day EMA and 50% retracement levels, while respecting the 200 and 50-day EMAs. It also saw a minor (and ultimately false) break of the $71 handle and November high.
While Wednesday was a down day, it was also an inside day. And this suggests a hesitancy to break immediately lower with demand around $71.
This may be on the scrappy side, but bulls could consider longs around the current lows and seek a rebound to either Wednesday's high, just beneath the $73. Though a higher target could be considered should a fundamentally bullish catalyst arrive.
The bias remains bullish above $70, but $70.49 could also be used to improve the reward-to-risk ratio.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index
Nifty tried to consolidate today after the BO yesterday. Nifty did well to consolidate and end above 50 and 200 days EMA today Nifty closed at 23696 and the Mother and Father lines are at 23664 and 23620 respectively. These Two lines will continue to act as support for the coming days and sessions. Nifty faced a very stiff resistance today as expected near 23800. It will not be easy to cross this resistance. This was made clear by us in earlier messages. Exit poll results, followed by RBI rate cut followed by actual Delhi state election results in favour of market expectation can lead to a positive sentiment build up and these levels can be taken down and Nifty can even regain 24K levels in the coming time.
Nifty supports remain at: 23664 (Mother line), 23620 (Father Line), 23346 and 23222. Below 23222 weekly closing Nifty will become very bearish.
Nifty Resistances remain at: 23809, 23883, 23984 24108 and finally 24197. Above 24197 Weekly closing Nifty will become very bullish.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Boeing May Be Attempting a TurnaroundBoeing has struggled for years, but now there may be signs of a turnaround in the aerospace giant.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of lower highs between December 2023 and early December 2024. The stock has now pushed above that falling trendline, which may suggest its direction is turning.
Next, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) just formed a “Golden Cross” above the 200-day SMA. That may also indicate a change of direction.
Third is the rally between November 22 and late December. BA retraced half the move before bouncing, which may confirm an upward trajectory.
Fourth is the weekly close of $179.99 from mid-August. The shares have been stuck at that level since December. That may make traders view a close above it as a potential breakout signal.
Recent price action has gotten more interesting as well. Last week saw an outside candle around earnings, and now an inside week is forming.
While these signals are inconclusive, they’re all potentially consistent with a reversal. Could more news of a business revival bring long-term money off the sidelines?
Finally, BA is an active underlier in the options market. (Its average volume of 127,000 contracts per day ranks in the top 5 percent of the S&P 500, according to TradeStation data.) That may help traders take position if the shares start moving.
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GBP/USD - End of January AnalysisWith the possibility of Donald Trump imposing tariffs on the UK, the trend to the downside does not look like it is bound for a turn anytime soon.
Monthly, cable closed -0.97% lower with the lower portion of the breaker block being touched ever so slightly @ 1.26156.
I’ll be covering what to expect In the weeks to come.
US T-Bonds - End of January AnalysisNew month = more opportunities and with January closing just before a weekend, it gives me the added advantage of sitting down with price action whilst the market is not moving and gauging the next draw on liquidity on a macro scale.
This analysis goes over what to expect on a long term time frame; 6-months & 3-months retrospectively and also covers what I expect to take place in the next following weeks.
The monthly highs is 115.01
The monthly lows is 110.19
Counter-Trend trade FET to $1.40FET seems to have made its way into its very on bear market. It did it all by its self. Aren't you proud of it? lol
.63-.90 was an area of interest here for me when I'd shorted it, and also longed it previously. I think that this area again is a nice place to take a long from.
I think that we can probably hit around $1.40 from here, where I think that then FET will continue down afterward.
Enter anywhere under .815 cents down to .60 cents.
Thank you!
Head and Shoulders pattern, price might go downAs we can see the price reached our Major key level and formed a H&S pattern, meaning we might experience sellers, but that's not enough confirmation to sell
If price breaks below the Major low then we can take that as a confirmation that sellers are taking over the market and we can expect selling pressure and we can place our entries
If it breaks above the MKL then we can expect buying pressure as this showed that the H&S pattern failed so buyers are taking over
GBPNZD: Strong Bearish Signal?!GBPNZD appears to be in a bearish trend following a period of consolidation.
A break below a support level within a sideways trading range is a strong indication of further downward movement.
It is likely that the price will continue to decline, potentially reaching the 2.1943 support level.
EURUSD: Classic Breakout TradeThe EURUSD broke and closed above an important daily support level.
Following the breakout, the price retested the previously broken level and began to consolidate, creating a tight trading range.
A bullish breakout from this range serves as a strong confirmation of a bullish trend for the day, increasing the likelihood that the breakout is legitimate.
It is anticipated that there will be an increase in price, potentially reaching at least 1.0439.
ETH will go down more don't buy!Ok Ethereum fell out of the wedge and went down heavy. Didn't expected that got liquidated heavy. But in hindsight was expecting something but you never know when and how.
Now making a new technical analysis, I see ETH doing this:
I zoomed out on the weekly TF on the logaritmic chart,
and there you can clearly see a new bigger wedge.
- There is a tripple top with higher highs
- The last pinbar pierced slightly out of the wedge and liquidated allooot of people.
I can see ETH can test the trendline and fall slightly out maybe 2K max.
But technically ETH has to breakout to the upside now,
In a couple of weeks ETH is heavy up. I think people wait for the FED decision in march for QE.
But I ladder in already in the chart already tells you actually ETH is going up.
GbpUsd- Strongly bullish on medium termAs you know from my previous TVC:DXY analyses, I anticipate a correction in the index, which should lead to a rise in major USD pairs.
Among all the USD pairs I've recently covered, FX:GBPUSD appears to be the most bullish.
Looking at the posted chart, after forming a bullish Pin Bar at its recent low in mid-January, GBP/USD began to reverse and climbed to 1.25, which was the initial target at that time.
A correction followed this first leg up. What stands out in this case is the strong bullish reversal candle that formed after Monday’s Asian open gap. Not only did it fill the gap (like in EUR/USD's case), but the pair also returned to the 1.25 resistance level.
This structure signals strong bullish momentum, and I expect GBP/USD to continue its ascent toward the next key resistance zone at 1.28.
In conclusion, my strategy remains to buy the dips.
Depending on the entry point, this setup offers a potential risk-to-reward ratio of over 1:3.