Eminisp500
ES - e-mini S&P 500 support zones Hello traders,
Description of the analysis:
ES support zones ideal for timing long positions (gray). Trade what you understand, trade carefully and sparingly according to the business plan.
About me:
Hi, my name is Jacob Kovarik and I´m trading on stock exchange since 2008. I started with a capital of 3000 USD. My first strategy was based on OTM options. (American stock index and their ETF ). I´ve learnt on my path that professional trading is based on two main fundaments which have to complement each other, to make a bussiness attitude profitable. I´ve tried a lot of techniques and many manners how to analyze the market. From basic technical analysis to fundamental analysis of single title. My analytics gradually changed into professional attitude. I work with logical advantages of stock exchange (return of value back to average, volume , expected volatility , advantage of high stop-loss, the breakdown of time in options, statistics and cosistent thorough control of risk). At the moment, my main target is ITM on SPM index. Biggest part of my current bussiness activity comes from e mini futures (NQ, ES). I´m trader of positions. I´m from Czech republic and I take care of a private fund (over $4.000.000 USD). During my career I´ve earned a lot of valuable experience, such as functionality of strategies and what is more important, control of emotions. Professional trading is, in my opinion, certain kind of mental training and if we are able to control our emotions, accomplishment will show up. I will share with you my analysis and trades on my profile. I wish to all of you successul trades.
Jacob
S&P E-Mini 500 ( 15Min)We have a buy Signal (please Read carefully)
Probability : 65%
Take profit : 3506.50
Stop Loss: 3495
If we achieve our Target ( TP) then Wait until the Green candle cut the first Green Line => Take another Buy position and Use the Orange Line as the second Take profit 2. and the Green line is my new support.
If the Candle cut the Orange Line ( TP2) , use it as a Support and the Blue Line As a Resistance ( Take profit 3).
5th Wave Under Way: Look for a Top Wednesday, Thursday or FridayStill looking for the 5th wave to form and then to be followed by a crash move. The next 3 months are likely going to be brutal. I don't think Congress reaches a deal for new stimulus by the August 10th recess one week from now. I think that will tank the market along a other reasons I listed in my last post.
Again, I think we bounce higher first, to finish the 5th wave and once its done, a crash will follow. I think SPX will attempt to fill the gap at 3328. Once done the crash should begin. I do believe that the next crash will be worse than the Feb crash. My market breadth indicators are flashing the same warning signs they did back February.
If we selloff and take out the 50 % fib retracement of the last bull market at 2030, then the 2016 comes into place at 1810. We take out that level of support the 78.6 fib will likely be tested at 1708.
Here they are again:
The catalysts for the next selloff:
The election (uncertainty)
Covid-19 cases trending higher
On July 30th we got a contraction in Q2 GDP officially moving the US into a recession
Q2 Earnings
US-China tensions
Trump has scrapped plans for a phase 2 deal with China
Stimulus Effect Wearing Off
The extra $600 a week in unemployment benefits is now over
New State Lockdowns
New Stimulus Delay
Uptick in Unemployment with New Lockdowns
Winning Daytraders Understand Trend Trading.Hey guys, most people that get into the markets want to learn how to daytrade. They want to learn how to play the market on a day to day basis and eliminate a lot of the stress.
Smart day traders understand trend trading. At the end of the day if you are trading something like a 15 minute time frame you're aware of how much noise their is in the markets. You need to eliminate the noise and focus on trend. Stop trying to scalp every little move getting in and out and racking up your fees.
What we do is identify some of the largest trends that we can find... the more noise you filter out, the better your odds are at winning. Then we just follow up with good risk management.
Take a look at the ema dots indicator. This takes out the complicated noise that most traders battle back and forth all day long either selling too early or buying too late. You need to stop focusing on trying to capture the exact bottom and the exact top. Just focus on capturing the overall trend transitions.
Every 15 minutes for example on this chart of the ES futures CONTRACTS we will get a set of dots to close a certain color. We take our position when they align and set a take profit, or hold till next transition. Easy. You risk a little to win big, meaning you play good risk management knowing that the next major move is right around the corner. Technically you don't really need to understand support and Resistance but it does help. I personally believe trading the trend is the way to the gold mine.
Next Resistance for ES?ES gapped above the resistance from February and June which was at 3181 last Friday. After 3200, the next historical resistance is that second red line at about 3252 now.
That second red line stopped the ES back in June at 3225ish. It was support back in 2017. Let's see if it can stop it again.
Liquidity is increasing within the market's internals. So, bears may not get that big downfall that they were salivating for.
My strategy is simple. Long at major supports. Wait for the price come to me. If there is a big pullback, scalp the pullback with shorts. Swing trading shorts is a dangerous game at this point.
ES! SHORT CALL (YET AGAIN)Hello traders.
I know I have been calling the top/shorts for the spy/spx for a while now, but this analysis should help understand that we are LIKELY not within a V shaped recovery, likely, a stairstep.
A look at the vix indicates extreme lack of fear in this market, as such, wait for a quiet entry and for the love of god, wait for the newest covid stats.
-Live long and profit.
July 2 to July 17 to end of month predictionSince the market is closed tomorrow, the first tiny bubble finishes at 1 pm eastern time. The markets looked relatively weak after seeing such a stellar job number, good job, Trump! I am looking for next week to roll over a little bit. I just tested out a Fibonacci fan, which we see around the 3111ish area looks like support. It also played the expected move on the /ES, so closing at 1 pm tomorrow that level is possible.
Going to next week with an expected move on the SPX of 80 points, we closed at 3130 on Thursday. Assuming we grind down to 3111 area, that would imply a 20 point gap down for the SPX if we were to open Sunday at 6 pm. However, we trade overnight. By the time of the 9:30 open, we could be looking at down 30 handles—3080 at the open with an expected move of 80 points. I am looking to see the 3000 print by the end of the week. We have a gravity point of 2983 as strong support.
July 17th expected move: 130 points. SPX at the moment is 3130, which would point this week to end at 3000. Keep in mind. Ending the week prior at around 3000. Look for this week to start off down, but saved by the 61.8% Fibonacci at 2930. Bottoming here look to rally 70 points to finish the week at 3000 on the money with the expected move.
So that is my outlook between now to the end of the 17th. 3111/3060/3000/2983, then from there, look out below! After the 17th, it's hard to predict; however, I don't think we fall on our face. 2930 held back on June 15th, and we hugged that level in the middle of May before this rally. But I think we can touch it for sure before the 17th but bounce hard off it.
I would love to see us fall after the 17th, but I think we will remain in this box for at least the month of July. Let's look at the end of the month and see how it goes.
CRASH in One to Two Weeks #StockMarketCRASHIf we are forming a large counter trend move that's going sideways in an EW abc correction. I think we've got a good shot at filling the gap if the last low in mid June holds. I think we will see the start of a crash move starting within one or two weeks. If the gap fills and we get a lower high than the peak made in early June. So the sideways move could continue until earnings season kicks off after the 4th of July or shortly thereafter.
2975.75 is the key level to watch on the e-mini S&PFor the week ahead, the 2975.75 is a key level to watch. If you notice my annotations, I am indeed outlining that there are two possibilities for price to play out. We're not here to make predictions, but the observation of how price plays out along this level is very important. Fundamentally speaking, the US is potentially in the second wave of the COVID-19 outbreak . If we're seeing more states follow suit in delaying the reopening or restating the quarantine protocols, this will surely send the ES lower as there be negative economic indications from this. The 2975.75 is such a critical level to watch because the last time price sold through this level was on June 14th. Price broke through this level and then quickly traded above it. If price breaches this level and sustains to trade lower, we just broke a major floor.