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Learning Fibonacci Price Theory - MUST WATCHEven though I got cut off after about 25 minutes, I'm sharing this with all of you to teach you how to use one fo the most important PRICE STRUCTURE features for any chart Fibonacci Price Theory. The consensus of all TA is that PRICE tells us everything. Fibonacci Price Theory is the REAL DEAL. Use it on a 1 minute, 5 minute, 60 minute, or Daily - ANY TIME-FRAME Use it in conjunction with other TA/Indicators. Use it with Elliot Wave analysis. USE IT. My experience is that all indicators/theories/strategies have strengths/weaknesses. If you are not aware of them (yet) - pay attention. Follow my research and I'll continue to try to share tidbits of advanced TA/Fibonacci with you. I created this to help my followers/friends learn one of the most critical price structure components of my own research. I see all price charts in the manner I've illustrated in this video. After more than 15 years of applied Fibonacci Price Theory/Structure - I can't help but NOT see price as "Fibonacci Fractals". Hope this helps.
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by BradMatheny
A Dive Into My Swing Trading Approach (+setup) This video was a short synthesis of my swing trading approach. For the amount of information I presented, I'm not expecting to successfully being able to convey my means and ways in one short video, but I'm glad if I could at least show a different perspective. Some important things I forgot to mention: - The tolerance for identifying a visual weak liquidity pattern is 2 ticks, 3 ticks during highly volatile days (for the ES). This can change from one market to another. Anything more than 2/3 ticks is considered a move of conviction supported by strong liquidity, a market that has the confidence to see what's beyond a certain point to then either sharply reverse or move forward. - Using this method I CANNOT know what the market makers are exactly doing, there is no way to know, they will always be a step ahead of any brilliant retail trader. However, we can understand their logic and the weak traders' logic, the latter is the type we want to trade against. SETUP As I said, I favour a short trade, but as of today I have to remain on the sidelines. During this times is important to be flexible and change ones bias if that's what the market is suggesting. I will post my set up (if any) in due course.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by LionLazzari
Options flow predicting moves on Derivatives (Futures)Options have been and are an important instrument on the financial market for a trader trading Intraday Futures. Therefore, while exploring the mechanics of the option market over the last several months, as a result of work, indicators were created that load data from Quandl and then look for patterns that may herald a change of direction on the derivative market - in this case Futures Contracts. There are two main types of Options: CALL - allow their owner to buy a given product in the future at a predetermined price (Strike Price) PUT - allow you to sell this product at a predetermined price (Strike Price) By observing the market volumes of both types of Options, we can observe the sentiment of investors. The key factors are which volume (call or put) prevail in the volume and the dynamics of the volume - what is the trend on volume, whether the difference between them increases or decreases. In addition, the Put / Call Ratio analysis allows you to confirm or negate the signals from the Option volume. The Ratio indicator behaves inversely to the price movement - in the case of a bearish sentiment, we expect the ratio to increase, and in the case of bullish sentiment - the indicator should decrease. If the Ratio follows the price in the same direction, it is an anomaly. Of course, the mere observation of the Option volumes and the Put / Call ratio is not sufficient, as the Options Market is a much more complicated activity. It is worth including in the calculations such factors as Expiration Date, Bonus Amount, option type (In the Money, Out of Money or At the Money). Not each of the factors is equally important, therefore the key is additionally the appropriate selection of the weighting factors. For this purpose, due to the multitude of data, it is worth using Machine Learning, which I also do by saving the resulting data in a dataset in Quandl and displaying the data in TradingView using Pine Script. Below are some additional examples from recent sessions on ES showing the predictive nature of the Option sentiment, often preceding major movements in the ES index (during the spot session): First, from the left, the session from November 15 is shown and an opportunity to play Short. On the right, the session from November 16 and an opportunity to play the Long position this time. Session from November 10, where we first got the Bull's signal, and at the top we got a warning signal of traffic reversal and the possibility of entering Short: And one of my favorite moves on November 3:
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by skyline-trader
Understanding Sessions - DAX FuturesFollow up from yesterday's post for US Futures, but same concepts apply for ALL assets in any market. See this example from the action this morning. DAX hasn't yet settled beneath the US Session Open, clearly indicating current pressure remains up. Yet the range potential on a push higher or lower is nice and wide. For these cases I tend to prefer to play the reaction to the next move, not predict the move itself. If you're scalping, you can use the smaller timeframe session open such as 5 minute as a guide for 'in the moment' pressure, but always keep these bigger sessions in mind and where you are in relation to them. Reference my earlier posts from yesterday and this morning for ES for more info.
EUREX:FDAX1!Education
by TheSessionMaker
Understanding Sessions - ES FuturesFollow up from yesterday's post. See this example from the action this morning. The rip higher off the open to grab supply, only to reverse on the next 15 min bar, taking out the Open price, immediately heading for where? The Pre-Equity Open Defender created hours before the normal session open. This is critical because the Pre-Equity Open in Futures is a helpful guide not just in Futures, but for SPY, QQQ, or any stock. It's serving as the guide for where the pressure is for the morning. It can often act like it did today, halting the selling to reverse higher. It ALSO works in the other direction, when equities Open at 9:30am, where are we in relation to the Pre-Equity Open in Futures? If below, that's downside pressure until we forceably breakthrough it. Remember - once the level is tagged, many of the resting orders have been filled. More can come in behind it, but an intra-day retrace all the way too any of these Session Opens is more likely to at least push price to the other side of it, finding out "what is there" orderflow wise.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by TheSessionMaker
Understanding Sessions - US Index FuturesMarket Sessions are not commonly understood. Let's use ES Futures as an example (concept applies for all assets in every market). What you see is an automated tool that I call ' The Session Maker '. It's all about providing in the moment context when trading, but it the principles and concepts are valuable when used on any timeframe. Below I briefly explain Sessions, why we often haven't learned what they are or how to use them, and what we can do about it. Most of the time we hear about the importance of the "Close" of the day's session and that level is what most see or reference on their charts, or CNBC, or social media, etc. The reality is, the OPEN of a Session carries more weight than the Close. And before you say "but the Close of one session and Open of the next are often identical" - think again. Plus it's not just the level, it's the way we perceive it, and perception is everything in this game. By definition if we look at the Close of the previous session, we're focusing on what has already happened and basing our analysis on increasingly older data. Using the OPEN as our guide for the current session, we're bringing our attention as close as possible to the "here and now". We're actually assessing the "type" of market participants involved right in this moment. Plus by doing so, we're able to recognize there are many concurrent sessions happening each moment. Timeframes like Today's Session, the Weekly Session, the MONTH, the QUARTER, the YEAR. To smaller timeframes like 2 hour, 15 minute, 5 minute, etc. I encourage you to take a moment, look at the Opens on any timeframe you prefer, and notice HOW the candle or bar is formed. How is the wick created and when? Put it in context of the current trend on a larger timeframe. For example, in an auction move higher, do they consistently sell the open of each 15 minute session, but not break below the previous 15 minute session Opens? Consistently giving small pullback backs but auctioning higher? WHERE did the move slow and/or stop? Was it an "untouched" or "unvisited" Open from a previous Day or Week or much larger timeframe, such as the Quarter? When we start to put it all together, we get more context for which Sessions carry more weight, which one's we want to be participating in, and most of all refine our entries and exits not based on Moving Averages or other squiggly lines... just price and orderflow. Happy to discuss any questions or thoughts in the comments and plan to provide future posts with examples of how this automated tool can help provide quality data for better decision making. **For anyone who can answer the below question correctly - I'll shoot you over a custom link with this tool that you can copy into TradingView** What is the actual Daily Open for US Index Futures we should all be aware of? Is it: (all times Eastern) 6pm? 8:30am? 9:30am? 9:28am?
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by TheSessionMaker
4
Day Trading ES with Simplicity! Initial Balance VWAP and LevelsHey everyone I thought I can share with you what I see working intraday trading the Futures markets. One size definitely does not fit all. Beware of people that tell you their way or the highway! This may resonate with some traders and not with other traders. Getting really good at identifying the Initial Balance, VWAP and Daily Weekly Monthly Levels for areas of Supply and Demand, (where macro traders sit) you can get a great edge over time with your trading and build a ton of confidence. Check it out for yourself. I also use order flow to actual enter and manage my trade ideas but that is for another topic. Everyone take care out there.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by ViperFutures
2
Repeating Patterns. Correction End, Major Continuation. S&P 500.This is a non-specific pattern that can be found in any market. I am training my eyes to look out for it. Soon I will be able to trade it. I can do hit the entry in sim just fine when I have nuts the size of the moon, but on live it's a different story, and you and I know it, so practice practice practice. Being able to stack the probabilities in your favor for knowing when a correction is ending is like knowing the location of one of the jewels used to activate the holy grail. Hopefully, you and I can see the value of pursuing this knowledge.
CME_MINI:ESM2021Education
by emehoke
How to Trade a Scythe Pattern (SPY used as example)I see these all the time on 5-m charts. I attribute them to algos trading shares with each other. The way price action advances and declines (and the speed), leads me to believe computers performing high speed day trading with one another. That aside, be on the look out for them! They can sometimes be a wonderful tool to predict a large price movement in short time. I've included a 5-m chart of this pattern below. Refer to it after reading: To trade the Scythe Pattern: SHORT when you see this pattern after an uptrend or high (like the example illustrated below - SPY 2.17.2021), go LONG when you see the inverted scythe at the bottom of a downtrend or low. I treat it as a modified cup & handle. I use the measurement from the base of the scythe beard (lower left edge) to the top of the blade (see rulers in image below) I regularly see this pattern break out above the tip (fake out) before ripping in a cascade fashion lower. Look for this pattern where you see price cascade on lower time frames (1-10m). The tighter the price action in the scythe blade, the more accurate the results. I have not tested this pattern on higher time frames, but I am currently doing so with some hourly/daily/monthly charts I've identified. More often than not , I spot this at a high and realize that I should either avoid going long or open a short. This pattern wrapped up the trading session on 2/16/21, predicting the gap down to follow. Again, the dynamics of the scythe are much more clear on lower time frames. So add the scythe pattern to your tool chest and let me know how you like it. Enjoy!
AMEX:SPYEducation
by SLOPolarBear
29
You have to pay attention to this...So we are probably all aware of the stock market sell off that is currently occurring. It's likely due to a combination of things... The reflation trade reaching a short term top... The holiday weekend profit taking... And a bit of a rotation out of tech to value. Stocks have been hit pretty hard. And when stocks are hit hard... The financial media have a field day. The problem is that the financial media trot themselves out when the 'knowns' are available... That is, once the move has happened. So listen to this. Whenever CNBC releases their 'Markets In Turmoil' segment... The SP500 has an average weekly return of 1.5%... Over 3 months, that return jumps to 5.4%. And after a year... A staggering 20.8% average return after this segment. Guess what? CNBC just released this segment this afternoon. Now, I'm not saying this is a bottom (although it could be)... But it's something to pay attention to, alongside other factors that may prevent you from catching a falling knife. Being a bear is a tricky thing to be when the fundamentals don't necessarily support a bearish market. What I mean by this is that the risk free rate of return is all that matters - and that risk free rate of return tends to be the US 10 year benchmark yield.... Central bankers are very dovish, which means that they support more liquidity via monetary easing, which implies even lower yields in the mid term. No matter what you think of valuations - generally people think they're too high - the equity risk premium (the price paid above the risk free rate of return) is extremely low. Until this decompresses, risk will remain bid, and tech stocks will remain acting like sovereign bonds (acting like a replacement for this risk free rate of return). I think you can tell what my stance here is!
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by FinkPro
1
Winning Daytraders Understand Trend Trading.Hey guys, most people that get into the markets want to learn how to daytrade. They want to learn how to play the market on a day to day basis and eliminate a lot of the stress. Smart day traders understand trend trading. At the end of the day if you are trading something like a 15 minute time frame you're aware of how much noise their is in the markets. You need to eliminate the noise and focus on trend. Stop trying to scalp every little move getting in and out and racking up your fees. What we do is identify some of the largest trends that we can find... the more noise you filter out, the better your odds are at winning. Then we just follow up with good risk management. Take a look at the ema dots indicator. This takes out the complicated noise that most traders battle back and forth all day long either selling too early or buying too late. You need to stop focusing on trying to capture the exact bottom and the exact top. Just focus on capturing the overall trend transitions. Every 15 minutes for example on this chart of the ES futures CONTRACTS we will get a set of dots to close a certain color. We take our position when they align and set a take profit, or hold till next transition. Easy. You risk a little to win big, meaning you play good risk management knowing that the next major move is right around the corner. Technically you don't really need to understand support and Resistance but it does help. I personally believe trading the trend is the way to the gold mine.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by UnknownUnicorn2319099
1
Dedicating Some Time Back To Futures. (ES)Been wanting to get back into the e mini for some time now. As you know I focus on trading stocks and cryptocurrency mainly. I mainly already have my alt portfolio created for long term holds in crypto and I have a couple of stock picks to finish out on the current trades as mentioned in the last post. Plus a couple of higher cap stocks that are also in play for swings. I'm going to cool off and enjoy the big gains I got from the last two months and shift my focus back over to the emini for some day to day scalping. We will be using and combining the Crossover strategy and the ema dots for the smooth buy and sell opportunites. Our trading system can make scalping very effective and I want to focus on development of this skillset. Most know I like to look for long term swing trades as I mainly am a position swing trader. I will be scalping the one minute and I had to post the 15 min because I cant post lower timeframes. I am considering of starting to live stream on here so I can break down how I trade with you all on live plays. I will follow up with my current positions but mainly I will not be sharing a lot of different pairs as I go back to focus on scalping the market. Just wanted to let my followers know where I sit on what I'm looking to play as of right now. Will share follow ups on updates to the emini on this analysis. Best of luck to you all in the markets this week! Happy trading, 😁 🥇MLT | TRADE LIKE A PRO
CME_MINI:ESM2020Education
by UnknownUnicorn2319099
YM and ESThis is the immediate sequel to the previous post looking at the Dow futures, then we dabbled for a few minutes with the ES before we timed out. If you're confused, be patient and persevere. If you get a chance open up a clean chart and think through it as there are aspects to this analysis that can be helpful for you, and help you make distinctions in markets that would otherwise be confusing. There is a difference between clarity which I think is vitally important, and actually taking a trade. If you have clarity you're more likely to find a better trade decision. The first video was my attempt to show you what looked like a crazy, chaotic price dynamic's that was seemingly without any logical explanation... and then translated into the experience of buyers and sellers who can actually find reversals and yet they get trapped in the market. I believe some of these traps are intentional, and they are not random, and that you and I cannot because these reversals, but we can be aware that they are happening, and that if we are patient eventually we will come to a set up that will offer a decent trade with a decent target and the decent stop. Implied in this statement is the recognition that many traders make trading decisions that they feel are objective when in fact everything about their trading decisions is not objective at all, and they get blindsided, and actually attracted to markets that have a high probability of creating a losing trade for them.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by ScottBogatin
The Advantages of Price Action (Technical Analysis) Technical Analysis (AKA Price Action) Technical analysis is the understanding and observing of markets through the only thing that matters; price. Prices generate similar patterns over time, in every market. A single price chart contains more information than you would ever imagine at first glance. Everything you need to know about any company, or market is on the chart in front of you. The current price is what the true value of the market is, regardless of news, indicators, or anything else. The Advantages of Technical Analysis (Price Action) No News - Everything you need to know is on the chart in front of you. Completely disregard all news and outside information. All news is already built into the current price. The price action of the market is all you need to know. Once you understand how institutions operate, you can follow them. No indicators. All indicators are a derivative of price. For example a Fibonacci level. Every price on a chart is a Fibonacci level of some other price on the chart. Although they appear to work, these levels do not work because of Fibonacci. But instead due to the traders equation, which is the mathematical formula institutions use to enter and manage trades. Clearly define support and resistance. You can see on a chart where prices are likely to do something. These are "Key entry points" or "Buy and Sell Zones." Clearly define risk and edge. With technical trading, you have the ability to define your risk before getting into a trade. If the market does not do what you expected, and instead goes beyond your stop, you exit. Without needing to wonder about why this happened, or constantly observing the news. Identify the strongest markets without relying on outside information like news, indicators, someone else, or a "tip." Become independent and trade for your self. If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
Education
by tradersmentality
"VIX, a powerfull tool to use on SP500" by ThinkingAntsOk -Today we are going to show Vix Index on daily chat compared to SP500 (orange line). The first thing we noticed is the Wedge formations on the chart. -As Vix starts going down, SP500 keeps rising, the concept is that people trust on the strength of the bullish trend, on this process we can see the Wedge patterns on VIX, and bullish trends on SP500. -To see the Wedge Pattern we only need to draw a line between the higher lows on VIX. -OK great! But how can I do something with this? -Let’s see it on this way, imagine you have been following a bullish movement on SP500 and you see that is about to face a major resistance zone and you observe that the bullish trend is losing strength. When you detect this, you are going to Focus you attention on the VIX chart, and you are going to ask yourself the next question. -Is price inside the Wedge Pattern or is about to break out? -If the price has broken out the structure and SP500 is on a Major reversal zone, then, that’s a strong bearish confirmation to start thinking on bearish setups. -Why should I look for bearish setups? Because that means that people is starting to have fear of a possible bearish movement that’s the reason VIX is making new highs and has broken the Wedge pattern, we should complement this by seeing bearish candlesticks on SP500 with high volume on them. -Conclusion: see on the pictures how Vix preceded the beginning of the two previous bearish trends with a breakout signal. -Complementing charts is always a good way of making your setups more solid. *Please note that the above perspective is our view on the market, We do not give signals and take no responsibility for your trades.
CBOE:VIXEducation
by ThinkingAntsOk
1