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Understanding Sessions - US Index FuturesMarket Sessions are not commonly understood. Let's use ES Futures as an example (concept applies for all assets in every market). What you see is an automated tool that I call ' The Session Maker '. It's all about providing in the moment context when trading, but it the principles and concepts are valuable when used on any timeframe. Below I briefly explain Sessions, why we often haven't learned what they are or how to use them, and what we can do about it. Most of the time we hear about the importance of the "Close" of the day's session and that level is what most see or reference on their charts, or CNBC, or social media, etc. The reality is, the OPEN of a Session carries more weight than the Close. And before you say "but the Close of one session and Open of the next are often identical" - think again. Plus it's not just the level, it's the way we perceive it, and perception is everything in this game. By definition if we look at the Close of the previous session, we're focusing on what has already happened and basing our analysis on increasingly older data. Using the OPEN as our guide for the current session, we're bringing our attention as close as possible to the "here and now". We're actually assessing the "type" of market participants involved right in this moment. Plus by doing so, we're able to recognize there are many concurrent sessions happening each moment. Timeframes like Today's Session, the Weekly Session, the MONTH, the QUARTER, the YEAR. To smaller timeframes like 2 hour, 15 minute, 5 minute, etc. I encourage you to take a moment, look at the Opens on any timeframe you prefer, and notice HOW the candle or bar is formed. How is the wick created and when? Put it in context of the current trend on a larger timeframe. For example, in an auction move higher, do they consistently sell the open of each 15 minute session, but not break below the previous 15 minute session Opens? Consistently giving small pullback backs but auctioning higher? WHERE did the move slow and/or stop? Was it an "untouched" or "unvisited" Open from a previous Day or Week or much larger timeframe, such as the Quarter? When we start to put it all together, we get more context for which Sessions carry more weight, which one's we want to be participating in, and most of all refine our entries and exits not based on Moving Averages or other squiggly lines... just price and orderflow. Happy to discuss any questions or thoughts in the comments and plan to provide future posts with examples of how this automated tool can help provide quality data for better decision making. **For anyone who can answer the below question correctly - I'll shoot you over a custom link with this tool that you can copy into TradingView** What is the actual Daily Open for US Index Futures we should all be aware of? Is it: (all times Eastern) 6pm? 8:30am? 9:30am? 9:28am?
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by TheSessionMaker
4
Day Trading ES with Simplicity! Initial Balance VWAP and LevelsHey everyone I thought I can share with you what I see working intraday trading the Futures markets. One size definitely does not fit all. Beware of people that tell you their way or the highway! This may resonate with some traders and not with other traders. Getting really good at identifying the Initial Balance, VWAP and Daily Weekly Monthly Levels for areas of Supply and Demand, (where macro traders sit) you can get a great edge over time with your trading and build a ton of confidence. Check it out for yourself. I also use order flow to actual enter and manage my trade ideas but that is for another topic. Everyone take care out there.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by ViperFutures
2
Repeating Patterns. Correction End, Major Continuation. S&P 500.This is a non-specific pattern that can be found in any market. I am training my eyes to look out for it. Soon I will be able to trade it. I can do hit the entry in sim just fine when I have nuts the size of the moon, but on live it's a different story, and you and I know it, so practice practice practice. Being able to stack the probabilities in your favor for knowing when a correction is ending is like knowing the location of one of the jewels used to activate the holy grail. Hopefully, you and I can see the value of pursuing this knowledge.
CME_MINI:ESM2021Education
by emehoke
How to Trade a Scythe Pattern (SPY used as example)I see these all the time on 5-m charts. I attribute them to algos trading shares with each other. The way price action advances and declines (and the speed), leads me to believe computers performing high speed day trading with one another. That aside, be on the look out for them! They can sometimes be a wonderful tool to predict a large price movement in short time. I've included a 5-m chart of this pattern below. Refer to it after reading: To trade the Scythe Pattern: SHORT when you see this pattern after an uptrend or high (like the example illustrated below - SPY 2.17.2021), go LONG when you see the inverted scythe at the bottom of a downtrend or low. I treat it as a modified cup & handle. I use the measurement from the base of the scythe beard (lower left edge) to the top of the blade (see rulers in image below) I regularly see this pattern break out above the tip (fake out) before ripping in a cascade fashion lower. Look for this pattern where you see price cascade on lower time frames (1-10m). The tighter the price action in the scythe blade, the more accurate the results. I have not tested this pattern on higher time frames, but I am currently doing so with some hourly/daily/monthly charts I've identified. More often than not , I spot this at a high and realize that I should either avoid going long or open a short. This pattern wrapped up the trading session on 2/16/21, predicting the gap down to follow. Again, the dynamics of the scythe are much more clear on lower time frames. So add the scythe pattern to your tool chest and let me know how you like it. Enjoy!
Editors' picks
AMEX:SPYEducation
by SLOPolarBear
29
You have to pay attention to this...So we are probably all aware of the stock market sell off that is currently occurring. It's likely due to a combination of things... The reflation trade reaching a short term top... The holiday weekend profit taking... And a bit of a rotation out of tech to value. Stocks have been hit pretty hard. And when stocks are hit hard... The financial media have a field day. The problem is that the financial media trot themselves out when the 'knowns' are available... That is, once the move has happened. So listen to this. Whenever CNBC releases their 'Markets In Turmoil' segment... The SP500 has an average weekly return of 1.5%... Over 3 months, that return jumps to 5.4%. And after a year... A staggering 20.8% average return after this segment. Guess what? CNBC just released this segment this afternoon. Now, I'm not saying this is a bottom (although it could be)... But it's something to pay attention to, alongside other factors that may prevent you from catching a falling knife. Being a bear is a tricky thing to be when the fundamentals don't necessarily support a bearish market. What I mean by this is that the risk free rate of return is all that matters - and that risk free rate of return tends to be the US 10 year benchmark yield.... Central bankers are very dovish, which means that they support more liquidity via monetary easing, which implies even lower yields in the mid term. No matter what you think of valuations - generally people think they're too high - the equity risk premium (the price paid above the risk free rate of return) is extremely low. Until this decompresses, risk will remain bid, and tech stocks will remain acting like sovereign bonds (acting like a replacement for this risk free rate of return). I think you can tell what my stance here is!
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by FinkPro
1
Winning Daytraders Understand Trend Trading.Hey guys, most people that get into the markets want to learn how to daytrade. They want to learn how to play the market on a day to day basis and eliminate a lot of the stress. Smart day traders understand trend trading. At the end of the day if you are trading something like a 15 minute time frame you're aware of how much noise their is in the markets. You need to eliminate the noise and focus on trend. Stop trying to scalp every little move getting in and out and racking up your fees. What we do is identify some of the largest trends that we can find... the more noise you filter out, the better your odds are at winning. Then we just follow up with good risk management. Take a look at the ema dots indicator. This takes out the complicated noise that most traders battle back and forth all day long either selling too early or buying too late. You need to stop focusing on trying to capture the exact bottom and the exact top. Just focus on capturing the overall trend transitions. Every 15 minutes for example on this chart of the ES futures CONTRACTS we will get a set of dots to close a certain color. We take our position when they align and set a take profit, or hold till next transition. Easy. You risk a little to win big, meaning you play good risk management knowing that the next major move is right around the corner. Technically you don't really need to understand support and Resistance but it does help. I personally believe trading the trend is the way to the gold mine.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by UnknownUnicorn2319099
1
Dedicating Some Time Back To Futures. (ES)Been wanting to get back into the e mini for some time now. As you know I focus on trading stocks and cryptocurrency mainly. I mainly already have my alt portfolio created for long term holds in crypto and I have a couple of stock picks to finish out on the current trades as mentioned in the last post. Plus a couple of higher cap stocks that are also in play for swings. I'm going to cool off and enjoy the big gains I got from the last two months and shift my focus back over to the emini for some day to day scalping. We will be using and combining the Crossover strategy and the ema dots for the smooth buy and sell opportunites. Our trading system can make scalping very effective and I want to focus on development of this skillset. Most know I like to look for long term swing trades as I mainly am a position swing trader. I will be scalping the one minute and I had to post the 15 min because I cant post lower timeframes. I am considering of starting to live stream on here so I can break down how I trade with you all on live plays. I will follow up with my current positions but mainly I will not be sharing a lot of different pairs as I go back to focus on scalping the market. Just wanted to let my followers know where I sit on what I'm looking to play as of right now. Will share follow ups on updates to the emini on this analysis. Best of luck to you all in the markets this week! Happy trading, 😁 🥇MLT | TRADE LIKE A PRO
CME_MINI:ESM2020Education
by UnknownUnicorn2319099
YM and ESThis is the immediate sequel to the previous post looking at the Dow futures, then we dabbled for a few minutes with the ES before we timed out. If you're confused, be patient and persevere. If you get a chance open up a clean chart and think through it as there are aspects to this analysis that can be helpful for you, and help you make distinctions in markets that would otherwise be confusing. There is a difference between clarity which I think is vitally important, and actually taking a trade. If you have clarity you're more likely to find a better trade decision. The first video was my attempt to show you what looked like a crazy, chaotic price dynamic's that was seemingly without any logical explanation... and then translated into the experience of buyers and sellers who can actually find reversals and yet they get trapped in the market. I believe some of these traps are intentional, and they are not random, and that you and I cannot because these reversals, but we can be aware that they are happening, and that if we are patient eventually we will come to a set up that will offer a decent trade with a decent target and the decent stop. Implied in this statement is the recognition that many traders make trading decisions that they feel are objective when in fact everything about their trading decisions is not objective at all, and they get blindsided, and actually attracted to markets that have a high probability of creating a losing trade for them.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by ScottBogatin
The Advantages of Price Action (Technical Analysis) Technical Analysis (AKA Price Action) Technical analysis is the understanding and observing of markets through the only thing that matters; price. Prices generate similar patterns over time, in every market. A single price chart contains more information than you would ever imagine at first glance. Everything you need to know about any company, or market is on the chart in front of you. The current price is what the true value of the market is, regardless of news, indicators, or anything else. The Advantages of Technical Analysis (Price Action) No News - Everything you need to know is on the chart in front of you. Completely disregard all news and outside information. All news is already built into the current price. The price action of the market is all you need to know. Once you understand how institutions operate, you can follow them. No indicators. All indicators are a derivative of price. For example a Fibonacci level. Every price on a chart is a Fibonacci level of some other price on the chart. Although they appear to work, these levels do not work because of Fibonacci. But instead due to the traders equation, which is the mathematical formula institutions use to enter and manage trades. Clearly define support and resistance. You can see on a chart where prices are likely to do something. These are "Key entry points" or "Buy and Sell Zones." Clearly define risk and edge. With technical trading, you have the ability to define your risk before getting into a trade. If the market does not do what you expected, and instead goes beyond your stop, you exit. Without needing to wonder about why this happened, or constantly observing the news. Identify the strongest markets without relying on outside information like news, indicators, someone else, or a "tip." Become independent and trade for your self. If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
Education
by tradersmentality
"VIX, a powerfull tool to use on SP500" by ThinkingAntsOk -Today we are going to show Vix Index on daily chat compared to SP500 (orange line). The first thing we noticed is the Wedge formations on the chart. -As Vix starts going down, SP500 keeps rising, the concept is that people trust on the strength of the bullish trend, on this process we can see the Wedge patterns on VIX, and bullish trends on SP500. -To see the Wedge Pattern we only need to draw a line between the higher lows on VIX. -OK great! But how can I do something with this? -Let’s see it on this way, imagine you have been following a bullish movement on SP500 and you see that is about to face a major resistance zone and you observe that the bullish trend is losing strength. When you detect this, you are going to Focus you attention on the VIX chart, and you are going to ask yourself the next question. -Is price inside the Wedge Pattern or is about to break out? -If the price has broken out the structure and SP500 is on a Major reversal zone, then, that’s a strong bearish confirmation to start thinking on bearish setups. -Why should I look for bearish setups? Because that means that people is starting to have fear of a possible bearish movement that’s the reason VIX is making new highs and has broken the Wedge pattern, we should complement this by seeing bearish candlesticks on SP500 with high volume on them. -Conclusion: see on the pictures how Vix preceded the beginning of the two previous bearish trends with a breakout signal. -Complementing charts is always a good way of making your setups more solid. *Please note that the above perspective is our view on the market, We do not give signals and take no responsibility for your trades.
CBOE:VIXEducation
by ThinkingAntsOk
1
Bitcoin and S&P500 correlated more than people think! For the longest time, most people always correlated Bitcoin price to Gold price but there was a small subset of people that argued the equity market was the true correlation. As shown in the comparison chart above, we saw that the equities market began selling a few days before the cryptocurrency market given that cryptos are already down over 80-90% but this is more an analysis over global selling. We can see that October 9th was the day stock broke the triangle and began selling heavily while Bitcoin continued to range for a few days before taking the plunge. After the DOW fell over 800 points yesterday, the crypto market was hesitant to follow suit and waited until the end of the day and into the night before selling off heavily. Some exchanges even saw price break below $6000 as volume picked up massively and volatility re-entered the market. We also got news last night that the Shanghai Composite hit new lows not seen in 4-years last night when that part of the world woke up and saw the carnage of the New York session. Some rumors were swirling around that the Japanese were selling their crypto to cover the massive losses they were incurring on their equity portfolios, which caused the huge cascading sells in Bitcoin and rippled across the market. Some might say that a bounce in stocks might cause a bounce back in Bitcoin so keeping an eye on this correlation could be profitable if we are in fact correlated. Thanks guys
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by CM_Trades
15
Trading Psychology Introduction to Trader Psychology There is evidence of technical analysis dating back to the 17th century. The candlestick charts most of use everyday to trade were created in the 18th century by a Japanese rice trader. By this point one would think technical analysis should result in more profitable traders and lead atleast a quarter of price technicians to a profit. However, this is not the case and in fact the opposite is true as most traders fail, even after years of studying price action. With this said, it is obvious learning how to read a price chart alone is not what leads to consistent profits. So what is it that seperates the very few succesful traders from the so many failures? Is it their strategy, their money managament skills, IQ, were they born with a different skill set than most, do they work harder than most, or are they just plain lucky? All of these sound plausible, but are they really the driving factor behind consistent profits? The short answer is no, none of the above. Perhaps we have been looking for the answer in the wrong place all along. In fact, most traders never even consider the possibility that it is their attitude or mental habits which prevent their success. What truely seperates the winners from the losers has nothing to do with external factors, but rather what goes on internally while observing and engaging the market, in other words; a traders mentality. "If the next bar is a bull follow through bar, the bulls have a 60% chance of making a profit. If the next bar is a bear bar that means....." Absolutely nothing! Unless you can structure a trade plan, and abide your plan as the market unfolds, without questioning yourself or your plan, and execute it flawlessly. Most beginning traders believe if they study harder and learn more setups, they will eventually become profitable. This is the fallacy of price action analysis. In fact, most economists and price analysts do not make good traders. Why? Because they form rigid rules and ideas as to what prices should or will do, and in turn fail to recognize and accept the "now opporutinty" the market is offering to traders who are open to all possibilities, including a lower probability event. Even more debilitating is the false belief that they can pick out winning trades, and avoid the losers, which leads to cherry picking through a traders edge. If the market spends most of its time with a probability between 40-60%, why is it so hard to generate a consistent profit? Understanding prices and their tendencies is only half the battle of becoming a Professional Trader. The other half and harder to develop, is the traders mindset. What makes a good trader is not only his knack for reading prices. It is the ability to flow with the market as it is unfolding, and the art of doing the right thing at the right time; without questioning himself. If the market is only offering X amount of profit, he takes it. If the market is unfolding in a way that he did not expect, he exits. He is willing to take a loss, and more importantly does not care what happens to "himself" in the market. He does not take it personally, and carries on throughout the day executing trade after trade. Continued...
Education
by tradersmentality
Nasdaq_Indexes_Look into todays action_Shorts considered only. Occasionally I will be slapping together a commentary about the days action on my favorite index and making a point to pickout the best entry of the day. This does not mean I take these entries. I simply point them out. These posts will be short simple and insightful. Notice the daily is bearish. We know better than to hold onto long positions. Over the weekend SPX and DOWJ setup very nice looking sell signals. Market makers know all of us retail traders sat around and thought about how bad we wanted to get short all weekend. So first thing this morning they gave us our fills. NQ pushed lower and stopped out tight long trades and entered silly short orders. Then the market made a substantial move higher only to stop out the retail short traders. Only to stall around lunchtime. Markets ticked around until 2pm when we finally started showing bearish signals and my plan allowed my to trade with the direction of the daily. Price broke the lunchtime level and then formed a perfect verification process to confirm we were about to move lower. The market took back all the days gains between 2 and 3:50. Notice the 5 minute chart in the comments below.Cant post the 5 min which truly shows the details of today's move. What a day. Stay tuned! If you found this analysis useful or thoughtful Likes/Comments/Follows are much appreciated! Disclaimer: Your data may be different. Material is educational only. Trade at your own risk!
FOREXCOM:NAS100Education
by UnknownUnicorn981629