VIX - Scythe PatternI see these a lot in crypto charts. Look for a steep and rapid ascent in volatility with a sharp point and fast breakdown after the tip is formed. In simple language, short the market and buy the dollar thru the end of November, and anticipate a steep drop in volatility into December.
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04/11/2020 #ES_F #SPX Today decides the next trendAt time of this plan, price has made alot of reaction with my levels, which is a gd sign that such levels still hold during volatile times like this.
I have a hunch, yes HUNCH that we are going to sell off by end of day. I am often wrong so #comeandfademe.
Upside targets above my blue bias zone (3356-70) are 3402, 3415.2, 3436, each of which have nicely held some advances. Upper resistances are 3480 and 3544.
Below short targets are 3322-24 support zone, 3316.6, 3304, 3276, 3242, 3224. In the event of heavy sell off, 3196 should cap low of day.
Trade safe
03/11/2020 #SPX #ES_F Either way is possible Elections day.
Market was up yesterday and do look to continue - though on my system it is bearish on both monthly and weekly. But expect some volatility today (or maybe tomorrow) and thus either direction is possible.
My bias zone is at 3306-12. Currently price is up, supported by my 3320-24.6 resistance zone. Upside targets are 3345.2-50. 3362-64 should cap high of day.
Based on price action, we might have a deeper pullback to 3292-98.6 but still go up. Do nothing between 3298.6-3306.
Below 3292, look for shorts, target 3266, 3212-8.6. If 3196 trades, it should cap low of day, presenting low risk buy level.
VIX/SP500 Price Action Air Pocket - Heavy Volatility Comingif you pull up a 2-day chart of the VIX and analyze price action using a 200 period MA, you'll notice that price action NEVER creates a pocket of dead space between its moving average and the price action (see turquoise boxes), except prior to a period of major/increasing volatility. I've highlighted the present anomaly as well as the 2007-08 global financial crisis. You'll find the same anomaly prior to all major crashes (dot com bust, etc.) After examining numerous stocks using a daily chart and 200 period MA, I see a LOT of downside when the market eventually corrects. I suspect Feb/Mar 2020 is a preview of what is to come. I also recognize that quantitative easing has created tremendous upward momentum since it was first started in late 2008. The recent market sell-off is evidence that no amount of QE will prevent the market from attempting to revert to its fundamentals.
02/11/2020 #SPX Possible Up DayOn monthly, weekly, daily, #SPX is on a downtrend based on my system.
But price action wise, with Friday's doji close, we look to go higher.
This post is later than my usual, some opportunity might be lost already. Price already pullback to 3251 which was my long/short zone. 3273-77 is the other reaction zone to go long, and price is currently above.
Upside resistance will be at 3310-16. 3345-3355 is strong resistance, and it should cap high of day.
In the event 3248 breaks, unlikely today IMO, 3195-3204 will be support. 3165-3175 is strong support, and should cap low of day.
30/10/2020 #SPX Cautiously BullishI tweeted on 22 Oct when SPX is at 3422, we will see a down before end of year to 3140, 3062, 2888.
I called a possible pullback yesterday (29/10) in #NDX. Pullback occurred. When everyone is bullish, news out. Market tanked 300 pts - just at the hit of my R zone (see my other #TradingView post). So where next?
I am bearish longer term but intraday, we MIGHT see price go up today. Yesterday's daily candle was a doji. Price action wise, going up 1st looks more likely. It is not easy to call another up day when a pullback has already happened. But I shall.
3267-73 is support zone. Going long here with a tight stop below 67 offers good R:R, targets are 3295, 3323, 3331, 3355. If some news cause some rally, 3363 should cap high of day. Low risk sell level.
If you are conservative, close above 3295 will provide confirmation for a up day.
If 67 breaks, target 3249, 3212.5. 3185 should offer strong support to cap down move.
28/10/2020 #SPX #ES_F looking for more sell, till I am wrongYesterday (27 Oct) #SPX #ES_F closed at the lows. It is still ranging now. Normally if we are to pullback, it should come quickly from open, but not so yet, thus probably we will sell in Europe session. But do note that 3402-3406 is a valued area of yesterday, there is always a probability we might pullback to there. That will present a low risk short level.
Purple lines 3382 and 3390 are probably R. If you want to trade the pullback you can trade level to level, but as per my plan, the upside (above the blue zone) is limited - 3412 and 3420.
Below support are 3364.8, 3350.8. If 3323.8 hits, it should present a low risk long level.
27/10/2020 SPX ES_F Let the sell continueMy post yesterday was titled "Let the crash begin?"
Probably will be more apt without the ?
We had a 100pts downmove then a pullback of 50pts. I still see further down; as I tweeted yesterday, no news is bad news.
Blue zone is usually my buy/sell level.But given the large movement yesterday, I actually put in an orange zone.
Be short below 3406 target 3382.8,3360-66 and even 3318. 3272, if we somehow reach there, will offer low risk buy level.
Do nothing between 3413.6 and 3424. If price pullback to this deeper levell, 3424-28 is the level to hold. If rejected, lower targets as mentioned above will be in play.
I will only want to look for longs above 3428, targetting 3448. 3458 should cap high of day - low risk sell level.
26/10/2020 ES_F SPX Let the crash begin?Price still ranging, in balance. 3 things which could affect the next move in SPX are the earning announcement, elections news, stimulus talk.
On a broader picture, as per my tweet last week, I am seeing a set up for a bigger correction coming before end of year.
Anyway for 26 Oct, look for longs only above 3460, targeting 3474, 3487. 3504 should cap high of day, offering low risk sell level.
Below 3452, bias is to the downside, targeting 3426, 3400. 3382 should cap low of day, offering low risk buy level
21/10/2020 SPX ES_F SPY Where next?Price is ranging with no clear direction. According to my system, price is in an uptrend on a monthly TF, but down on a weekly and daily timeframe.
Market is probably waiting for outcome of the stimulus talk to decide the direction.
I have identified the levels to trade on.
Above 3446.8 bias is to the upside, targeting 3467.4 (rejected by this level currently), 3488, 3498. 3518 should cap high of day, presenting low risk short level.
Below 3442, short bias, target 3430.8, 3416 and 3396. 3382.8 should cap low of day, presenting low risk long level.
SPY/SPX - Road MapThe market tries to give hints about what direction it's heading by giving us pivot points. If we look back over the past couple months, we can see a point of confluence where price action looks like it got into a really bad accident. Immediately prior, it took a spill and formed an ascending triangle. The point of confluence is the juxtaposition of FANG (and similar stocks) and the other 99% of the S&P. FANG is flying high every day. The other 99% of the S&P (the dead weight) felt resigned to accumulate a nice steady upward trajectory (ascending triangle) -- you can see these patterns all over the index. The high flying tech stocks however, are a component of the S&P and they've made the index 'drunk'. Hence the the overly zealous breakout of the the ascending wedge. But the index is schizophrenic, it has two dichotomous identities. And we see that with the quick rise and fall of Apple paired with the steadily rising banks and manufacturers. With big tech taking a back seat, I think the S&P is reverting to the other 99%o of the index. Monday and Tuesday will tell if we see a bounce off of the top of the ascending triangle and further test of it's ascending leg. This is the image we expect of a market coping with a pandemic, social & political upheaval, and major unknowns (yet cautious optimistic) about the economy.
ES_F - Going into Monday 10/19Well at first I was thinking this was going to be a gap-up Monday, but I'm thinking we'll see a retracement in the AM followed by another slow, low volume trading day. The market seems ambivalent to buy or sell, given the pending deal in Congress. I'm net short; if I get closed out tomorrow AM, planning to stay in cash for the remainder of the week, or until we get another impulse wave out of the muck we're currently trudging through.
16/10/2020 SPX ES_F Don't be too happy bullsYesterday, SPX hit my support level and rebounded 40-50points. However my system says that the down move might be short lived. Current rejection off 3487 gives possible further down move, targeting 3476, 3452. If 3452 (yesterday's support) breaks, expect 3420. I will wrong above 3492. Above R will be 3506 and 3528, which should cap high of day.
15/10/2020 #SPX #ES_F sell!Just re-posting this as my original post 12 hours back is hidden for including my Twitter handle! oops
I trade by identifying spot on daily turning point levels everyday for many instruments, including #SPX. Set price levels near these levels and trade when opportunity comes.
New to #tradingview. Will be providing my intraday levels for some of the instruments here on a daily basis, as I have done for some followers on twitter.
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#SPX #ES_F is over-extended. Yesterday's down move signals more down move to come. #NASDAQ $QQQ correction is clearer, and it should bring #SPX $SPY along with it. Bias is down below 3500, targeting 3454. Break of 3448 will bring 3420, which should cap low of day - low risk long level. Go long only above 3500, targeting 3520. 3535 will cap high of day - low risk short level.
Comment: Slight correction to the above. 3420 is a near term support. 3382.8 should be the cap of the lows instead.
Comment: 3454 (3448.5 in fact) hit and level holding for now. We might have a minor pullback now before further down.
Comment: 3448-3454 level holding and oversold. Better to re-short at higher price. Look for short entries at 3470
Comment: 3470 perfect entry. 7pts down move on 1 pt MAE
Where will we go, we always know - A XBT love storyBoxes, people, boxes!
Look at my boxes and be embarrassed you did not realize to put horizontal rectangles in the same place that I did. It has become clear to me that my boxes are dictating price action. Feel afraid? Confused? Read on, you weary soul.
I believe there's a chance that price will move down a bit into the developing VA (the blue lines you see on the main chart series). It'd be a good buy, even here under $10,600 is not bad. Target is upper box/weekly VWAP. Stop determined by risk. Risk more, put a stop on the top of the bottom box. Risk less, somewhere within the box. Even less risk, buy here + hedge, put bid orders all the way down to $10,400.
It honestly looks like it's not going to dump at all...
ES 10032020 Weekly reviewAfter a strong rejection on the weekly 21 EMA, price closed one time framing up and it is holding the 09282020 Gap up,for that reason, bulls are winning the battle until now.
In a lower time frame we can see that we have a complete auction in both sides but the buying tail is a little bit bigger than the selling tail, for that reason the odds of a break out on the previous week high are higher than a break on the weeks low, we do not know where is gonna be the break because next week can be a inside week but we have to be ready for the move.
let´s see what this week is going to show us, but we have a bull bias until now.
S&P 500/SPY Move down to continue!$SPY / $SPX
Today's price perfectly bounced from the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement levels. $ES_F S&P futures are hovering around a moderate resistance level of the 15 EMA and 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level which is around $3300. It's important to note we're still in a downtrend for the past almost 3 weeks. The price has constantly been rejected at the 15 EMA, 50 MA and Fibonacci levels. Thus, I expect the pattern to hold and expect to see a downward movement soon to around ~$3122 levels.
If we see a break of $3300 I'd expect to see a price of $3350 and possibly $3400 to trade.
Please share your thoughts. I love to learn and have a healthy discussion!
ES intraday price action probabilities for 22 Sep 2020This is my expected (predicted) price action. It states 33% up and 66% down and it's valid only until end of the day.
Let's see how is that going to work.
Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice
Stay healthy, trade safe.
Atilla Yurtseven