SPX index and US treasury yields below Core CPI index analysisSPX index and US treasury yields below Core CPI index analysis
Es_f
𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗿𝘁: $SSEC Daily (or $SHCOMP). Hitting resistanceConfluence of resistance here. Worth watching to see if straight-line DCB continues and #PBOC liquidity pumps remain effective
Feb 10 Session Profile | /ES S&P 500 E-Mini FuturesDescription: Things I'm thinking about tonight.
Points of Interest: Yesterday's value area.
Technical: Poor structure (untested POCs) beneath Monday's overnight. Multiple tests of the $3340 level followed by a break to the upside. Now we are gapping substantially and market may be ahead of itself. Could we see a quick move down (to yesterday's value area or POC) in the morning to correct this? Then continuation?
Fundamental: Earnings continue to improve; Fed really supportive; jobs data positive; ISM manufacturing higher; market participants equally split between bullish and bearish; virus data (if correct) shows the growth in virus cases slowing; trade going in a positive direction; world economy growth has persisted; and so on.
Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
Feb 9 Session Profile | /ES S&P 500 E-mini FuturesDescription: Things I'm thinking about tonight.
Points of Interest: $3340
Technical: Poor structure (untested POCs) beneath Sunday's open. Multiple tests of the $3340 level with breaks potentially shaking off sellers.
Fundamental: Earnings continue to improve; Fed really supportive; jobs data positive; ISM manufacturing higher; market participants equally split between bullish and bearish; virus data (if correct) shows the growth in virus cases slowing; trade going in a positive direction; and so on.
Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
Diary | 3/7/20 | /ES SpreadDescription:
Justification:
- Directional Play: No, adds long delta to portfolio.
- Technical: Less than 20, 50 Moving Averages, VIX @ 16
- Fundamental: Long-term bullish; using every dip to neutralize delta's in portfolio.
If/Then:
- Take profit: @ 50% Max Profit
- Where will you hedge: $3050
Strategy Details
- Short and Long legs? $3040, $3000
- Short Leg Delta: 0.10
- Duration: 41 DTE
𝗧𝗲𝘀𝗹𝗮 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $TSLA Daily. Parabolic StillAssisting $NQ_F a bit today. Hit 300% fib extension in what remains an epic short squeeze. Safest to wait for parabola break to try short
𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵: $SPY Monthly Rare to see a shooting star at upper bolli with divergence in play ... only 3 in the past 25 years 👀
emini SP500 #ES_F could be headed to 3200Here's a Fib analysis of a possible 'h' breakdown with a 127% extension move to 3200 if it can't get back into the channel.
𝗘-𝗠𝗶𝗻𝗶 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $ES_F Daily. Top looks to be in3337.50 (261.8% fib) clipped exactly on 1/22/2020. Possible fakeout following FOMC tomorrow with real move starting Friday and / or next week
ES_F emini SP500 bounces off FibIs there Fib trader in the house? #ES_F is bouncing of the 61.8 after it has broke below the price channel support.
Watching for new HOD for the Emini SP500 Futures - ES_FPoor high from market profile & volume profile need to be resolved, therefore, will be watching for new HOD.
S&P Futures (E-Mini) Key Fibonacci LevelsDrew up a series of key fib levels on multiple tf's.
Short-term, we are against the .618 and could see a small backtest Sun night. Mid-term, 3369 seems likely. Long-term, 3483 possible.
Potential S&P 500 ScenarioIt's been a while since I shared anything like this... most of the last few things were experimental historical models...
This is all based in Fibonacci, both price and time... this would have us peaking at about 3450 around late September 2020...
Though I don't have the count posted with it, it is based in Elliott Wave as well...
The EW concept here is an extended wave 1, with 3 being 0.786 of 1 and 5 being 0.786 of 3 - which leads to waves 3+5 equaling wave 1 (typical when 1 is extended)...
Just thought I'd share what I was looking at
Options Data Sets New Higher RangeNow that November OPEX is over we turn to December. The options data ranges set themselves higher indicating a new target overhead of 3150. Market gamma overall is very high suggesting tight trading ranges and a low volatility market. www.spotgamma.com
"Trade wars are easy to win" part 2Just a bunch of big caps are protected from the trade war environment .. which is not healthy in the long run, adding the fact that this is a growth cycle... we have a bull run made of only a few big cap growth stocks with a good international revenue exposure outperforming the market in the US and abroad...
$ES_F rising wedge continues As long as this rising wedge holds, - staying long stocks into earnings this week. If the wedge breaks, there is a short term short but the wedge in this environment often widens and expands into a cup and handle or ascending triangle and would look for a dip buy UNLESS earnings season majority of stocks are missing and bad data this week. Must
Monitor it closely
B waveHere is the B wave that started from Dec of last year. A WXY structure looks to be forming. W is a zigzag followed by a X wave then a Y wave. In the diagram Y is a triangle but this could possibly be a flat. Look for a top early next week that will then test the 200 Day SMA or slightly above. Then it becomes tricky, either we test test the upper trendline one more time to form the e leg of the triangle in late November or if Y is a flat after topping early next week we will bounce from the 200 day and form a 2 and then a collapse down into the 3rd wave in December.
Either way, we are nearing the end of the wedge between the 200 day and the the upper trendline formed from all the recent ATHs. Look for an explosion of volatility EOY and beginning of next year.
SPX to push higher highs SPX bears have tried to break these levels for a very very long time. I expect the full support of the Federal Reserve Bank and its repos to be behind this one. Earnings for q3 2019 are going to be not as bad as feared for the most part. I'm looking to buy on a breakout retest of the old highs - no positions for me otherwise
Internacional IPOS etf as trade war barometer ... Internacional IPOS etf as trade war barometer ... IPO / IPOS ratio USA IPO market vs International IPO market performance...
Slashing through support levelsAfter failing to breakout, $ES_F SPX futures slashing through support areas, leaving gaps. The declining RSI in my previous post appears to have been a key sign that this move was not going to hold.
While the market is oversold near term, the veracity of the move shouldn't be ignored. Breakout failures in the past have not been kind to markets. While there may be some retracement back to these support levels, i'd consider that to be a offloading/shorting opportunity as the market outlook seems grim at the moment. Futures at the moment seem to signal further move to the downside, but we shall see if there's any positive development overnight.
