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Esfutures

Dip buyingSPY closed up +1.5% on Monday. Closing up on Monday has been a trend since 4/20. For bears to stamp their imprint SPY needs to close below 300 for at least two days. Though SPY remains vulnerable to a decline economic green shoots are supportive of the markets. Housing data was positive on Monday as signed contracts for housing impressed, pending home sales increased substantially, and mortgage apps have been strong. Overcoming, for the time being, impact of increase in COVID cases in states like Texas, Florida, Arizona, and California, Today's economic data includes Chicago PMI, Case-Shiller Home price index, and Consumer Confidence Index. Powell and Mnuchin talk with Congress today. Market moving potential. ES futures traded listlessly in overnight session and are down -5.5 handles as of now.
AMEX:SPYShort
by insyyte
Bears getting strongerSPY got crushed -2.4% on Friday. Support zone is at 296.5- 298.5 at 50 DMA and 200 DMA respectively. All major indices again lost more then 2% on Friday. Remember the 6% one day drop 12 days back. Well, that's a gonzo bearish candle. We are now in a new bearish channel. For me to turn bullish ES futures first need to take out 3157 (SPY 316) and then 3188.50 (SPY 319). The clue for the bearish market is sick XLF (-4.3% loss on Friday). But always be wary of market supportive: -Tweets -FED actions -Corona vaccine planted news
AMEX:SPYShort
by insyyte
Open up, close dowmSPY up +0.4% on Tuesday, after being up 1% earlier in the day on the back of ES futures buoyancy. In the past 10 trading days, 7 days SPY have opened higher and closed lower suggesting stealth selling by the institutions. Nasdaq Composite (+0.7%) closed up for its 8th day straight advance. Nasdaq mega caps consistently provide narrow leadership for the market. Economic green shoots data...home sales up 16.6% m/m in May. Indicator continues to build negative divergence. But SPY stays comfortably above support zone. ES futures down -29 handles as of now. Corona doubts pressing European indices, and thus ES futures. Maybe negative open for SPY for a change. If so, watch out for gap down and fail. And then a ramp up.
AMEX:SPY
by insyyte
Same oldES futures are again buoyant in the morning and at present up 21.5 handles. That's been the pattern most of the time since Mar 23. Let's see if they fade SPY during RTH again, as has also been the pattern lately. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From Motley Fool. Bear case about why the next crash is on its way. 1. Our COVID-19 knowledge is still evolving 2. A second wave of infection appears likely 3. Business activity will be slow to bounce back 4. Stimulus funding is nearing an end 5. Second- and third-quarter earnings will be awful 6. Wall Street can't provide stepping stones for Q2 or Q3 7. Say goodbye to share buybacks and some dividends 8. Mortgage loan defaults are likely to rise... 9. ... As are auto loan delinquencies 10. The Federal Reserve has used up its "traditional firepower" IMO, for bears to get traction SPY needs to close below support zone. Market bullish case: FED put supports markets. Economic green shoots are sprouting.,
AMEX:SPY
by insyyte
Outside Distibution day follows Narrow Range daySPY closed -0.6% lower on quadruple-witching expiration this Friday. SPY was up 1.3% on the open on the back of ES futures that gained strength in overnight session from European stimulus and China's trade news. After a mild liquidation break in the morning selling started in earnest on the news of AAPL closing stores in two states due to Covid-19 spike. At one time SPY was down -1.0% before dribbling to a weak close. In the past 8 day's, 6 red candles and 2 green candles, suggesting low vol futures ramp up in overnight session followed by bearish action in regular trading hours (RTH). But still SPY 300 support zone holds and SPY remains in no man's land. While indicator divergence gathers steam. VIX perked up. If VIX again trades above 40 expecting stronger bearish action on the tape. SPY levels R3 322.23 R2 317.70 R1 313.17 DP 309.85 S1 305.32 S2 302.00 S3 297.47
AMEX:SPY
by insyyte
1
Narrow range (NR7) day with bullish undertoneWho would have thought that the narrowest days of the past 7 days will be printed one day before quad witching. But here we are. SPY closed down 0.1% yesterday. Unemployment data came in tepid, with continuing claims at 20.544 million for the week ending June 6. OTOH, Philly FED index turned positive and Leading Economic index clocked in at +2.8%, the first increase since Jan. FED back stop and some emerging green shoots provide a bullish undertone to the markets. ES futures are perking up +30 handles as of now as Europe talks more stimulus today. SPY Resistance: R3 315.09 R2 313.99 R1 312.88 Daily Pivot: 311.20 Support: S1 310.09 S2 308.41 S3 307.30 Hi 313.17 314.24
AMEX:SPYLong
by insyyte
5
An Inside dayIn past 6 trading days SPY has open higher than the close. They are selling the up gaps. And buying the down gaps, as happened on the only green day in the past 6 days. Yesterday traced out an inside day. Usually trading in the direction of the break of an inside day pays off. However, at present, ES futures are trading 22.50 handles lower promising a gap down open. Not sure if they will gap and go or gap and fail. Jobs report at 8:30 am can be a market mover. Will wait till settles in the first 30 minutes before trading, if at all. Support and SPY 300 holding steady.
AMEX:SPY
by insyyte
Stabilized after liquidation breakLiving up to the volatility expected in quad witching week RTH session opened about 2.5%, algo's liquidation break slammed SPY down to almost 0%. BTD bulls came in to stabilize market to finally close SPY up 1.9%. SPY at 312.96, comfortably above support. ES futures are again buoyant up +17.25 handles as of now suggesting SPY open about 0.5% higher. FED chair speaks again today at the House. Expect him to reiterate that the FED will do whatever is needed to keep the economy from rolling over. Bullish for markets. But if FED chair says some words that are percieved as not so supportive then the market is be ripe for another liquidation break. SPY fulcrum remains 300. Indicator developing cautionary divergence.
AMEX:SPYLong
by insyyte
FED jaw boningAt one time in the overnight session ES futures were down -2.5%. About afternoon FED chimed in with an unexpected announcement that it will start buying individual corporate bonds. That jaw boning was enough to propel SPY to a gain of 0.9% by end of trading day. ES futures are again bouyant, up 34 handles as of now. The indicator is showing divergence but support is holding well. SPY 300 has been defended strongly by the bulls to date. Markets react well to positive news (FED support, infrastructure spending) and ignore negative news (corona, unemployment picture, economic malaise, protests). That's how the markets are trading right and being bullish above SPY 300 and the support zone has been paying off.
AMEX:SPY
by insyyte
3
Changing trendSPY opened up euphorically, up 2.9% at it's high for the day. Strong 2 way trade ensued as expected (noted yesterday). Index closed up 1.3%, but much lower than the open. Thursday's strong down trend day was followed by sell into strength of Friday. Rips were sold, dips were grudgingly bought. SPY was down as much as 0.6% before buyers closed up the index for the day. For the week, SPY lost 5%. Almost an outside week. 300 held like a champ, through 2 tests. 4 day island top is big resistance. RSI is at 51.97%. When below 50% I expect deeper sell-off. Quad witching is coming Friday. Last quad witching was on Mar 15, a strong down week, Indicator divergence is notable on the chart.
AMEX:SPYShort
by insyyte
8
A change in characterSPY, after a cha-cha-cha move following FOMC statement, closed down -0.5%. The market is showing a change in character as shown by violent two way trades in the past few days. VIX is creeping up, currently in high 20's Following through on the nascent decline ES futures remained red on overnight trade, currently down 45 handles. FED says rates will remain near zero for forseeble future and -6.5% GDP cut for 2020. Projecting 5% growth in 2021. RSI coming off overbought reading and now below 70%. Put call ratio also coming off extreme exhuberance levels. Waiting for divergent signal to develop in the indiucator on the chart..
AMEX:SPY
by insyyte
New highs coming?Yesterday tech heavy NDX closed at all time high while SPY closed up a healthy 1.21%. Bullish tone persists in the markets. ES futures are weak in the morning today, down -28 handles. Will that spill into day time trading remains to be seen. RSI is above 70, an overbought condition, but can become more overbought if the bulls keep snorting. Put/Call ratios are hitting levels that has previously birthed bearish tone to the markets. Still watching for divergence in the indicator to trigger market weakness.
AMEX:SPYLong
by insyyte
Buy the rumor, sell the fact perhapsSPY close down yesterday -0.26% snapping a 4 day winning streak. The Nasdaq-100 index briefly touched a record high before rolling over to close more than 0.7% lower. Labor Department’s latest jobs report is scheduled for Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Expected unemployment 20%. ES futures are again higher 30 handles (+0.97%) as of now, as bouyant Wall Street/ distressed Main street roots dig in deeper. Waiting for the buy the rumor sell the fact narrative to start emerging if the past few days liquidation breaks start to take hold earnestly.
AMEX:SPYLong
by insyyte
No fearSPY closed up 1.33% up yesterday, as bulls are handling all negative news about very weak economy, corona, unemployement topping 40 millions. ES futures futures are trading about -18 handles and have been under pressure in overnight trading. The latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 1.877 million, against an expectation of 1.800 million. But that's been offset with ECB announcing bonds purchases providing a base for the markets. So it's all about the Central banks and the assets they are purchasing keeping a lid on any market weakness.
AMEX:SPYLong
by insyyte
Bid underneath from fresh stimulusGermany is set to approve a new fiscal stimulus package worth an estimated 80 billion euros. Makes for ES futures drifting up 0.45% and a solid bid underneath the markets as of now. Yesterday SPY closed up 0,40% and the grind higher continues. WTI crude is higher by about 2% as of now, which augers well for the small caps. U.S. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE SAYS ECONOMY COULD TAKE 10 YEARS TO CATCH UP AFTER CORONAVIRUS reports CNBC. But FED trillions and stimulus from other countries have a put a bid underneath the markets which appears to have distorted the Wall Street/Main Street symboises.
AMEX:SPYLong
by insyyte