Bullish signs from Iron Ore Futures 3 scenarios: 2 bull 1 bear.
1. Bullish upper trend-line break from first wave leading diagonal (T1 equal to or greater than $106 and T2 ~$139),
2. ABC correction (blue) following extended correction - we are currently in wave B triangle (T1 $106 for 1:1 wave A),
3. Downward breakout for additional corrective retrace.
At this stage scenario 2 looks the more likely.
Before getting too far ahead; look for a lower trend-line bounce first.
This is a 100% technical analysis and no element of fundamental analysis was considered. I am not a professional trader and my analysis if shared simply to further my own education.
Futuresmarket
Looking for ES to lift into the afternoon and close2779 is the low of the doji on 12/3/2018 that began the big 20%+ selloff in December. Retest to go higher otherwise no momentum if we can't get back above 2783.
Looking at taking below 2722.25 short based on 30min candleCurrently testing the near term uptrend with an indecision candle on the daily again. We failed to break above 38 on three attempts. The market was muted to slightly down with JPow's speech in D.C. 2722 area is solid support and I like the buying that came in just above there. However if price can't clear 2726 and stay above 2728, most likely will continue down breaking the uptrend line.
Let's see what she does. As always let price discovery be your guide :-)!
My forecast on CL this weekFinally a daily close above 54.75 for the bulls. Looking for a retest of this area to hold and continue the trend up. As long as the lower trendline and 18 day sma hold, we most likely grind higher to the 57.44 target I have then ~60. Losing the 54.75 on a closing basis would put selling pressure on oil and most likely test the 53 area.
As always let price discovery be your guide :-).
My forecast for RTY this weekTrend is up still until we lost that lower trend line. We are more than 50% back from the ATH and the sell off reversal area. Love that little doji that formed on Friday. We most likely break in the direction of the high or low with strength. My upper target on RTY is 1530.7 then 1560 area.
Lower areas of support 1498-1500, lower 1478-80, and 1465 (and 18 day sma).
I am expecting a more significant pull back in the next few weeks. However always let price discovery be your guide. Trade the trend until it fails.
Cheers! :-)
Forecast for NQ this weekThe trend looks very bullish clearing and holding above the 6845 level that I covered in my YouTube Video here: youtu.be . The 18 day sma is above the 50 day sma, signaling the trend is up.
I'm expecting a push towards the 7000 level (2/3 back from the ATH and reversal from the sell off) this week as long as we hold the 6775-6800 area. Might overshoot to the 200 day sma which is ~7050.
Of course always let price discovery be your guide :-).
S & P 500 E-mini Futures 100 point potential tradeWe should be bouncing soon, currently on the bottom side of a downward channel.
Technicals suggesting sell off to continue?Weekly TF technicals have shown a breach of short/intermediate term MAs and psychologically important support levels.
Divergence and a crossover on the MACD support the case for more downside.
My immediate thought is where will price find support?
2580 seems like the next significant level as the market retests the lows established earlier this year in anticipation of mid-term elections.
If market breaks those levels, the 200-week MA would be my next area of interest.
CBOE/CME Start and Expiration Date ContractsThis is a plot of all the start, Last, and expiration of the CBOE and CME Contracts. I may need to adjust some of the dates but i would like to get contract dates and etf decisions or delays on one spot for referance. How do futures contracts affect the market? Will any denial of ETF's drive the price down or do us crypto traders not even care at this point? I personally dont care and feel that most everyone expects denials across the board until we have further interest from institutions across the board. We have seen some interests of late including Morgan Stanley, Fidelity, BlackRock, and more. We also have seen some of the best University's from the us show interest recently such as Yale.
I have read some other institutions interest but would like to see a clear list of for and against crpyto at this point. Slowly but surely interest is rising from institutions while retail investors have been shaken out this year for the most part.
If anyone has any information or date corrections please let me know in the comments! Have a good week.
Zinc Vs other metals, Winner-winner still UREducational Metal Futures Insights:
ZA1! Zinc futures are up 15% over the past month, however note "Uranium futures" have been notably increasing since May.
Silver COMEX:SI1! and Copper COMEX:HG1! futures have just started their uptick with recent volatility in
market. CBOE:VIX Gold GC1! is also just starting a small uptick.
The summary: Uranium is a low cost energy driver globally with China bringing on new plants, India on the horizon, the US domestic sourcing to some degree, and japan
starting to restart their power plants from 2011 Fukashima issue as safety, now 7-years later has been implemented for deemed fail-safe. Uranium has achieved an all-time
low from high in 2006-2007, and 2011-2012 to current recovery in April-May of this year. Any company that can benefit in gold, copper, silver along with uranium such as
Rio Tinto, great. Low energy nuclear fusion and going to be the next Uranium, so again mining companies with Nickel (no futures contacts and oddity and needs a futures
contract added) is another benefit. Suggest you use this Nickel website for ideas. www.miningfeeds.com
Ur watchlist:
TSX:U , AMEX:UUUU , TSX:URE , NYSE:CCJ , AMEX:DNN , NYSE:RIO , AMEX:UEC
Ni watchlist:
TSXV:SFR CHXEUR:AALL LSE:ALBA ASX:AUZ ASX:ANW TSX:HBM TSXV:CNX , TSX:RNX , OTC:RNKLF Note: Royal Nickel recently struck a
Father's day gold vein and spiked from 0.07 to now 0.71. Lucky me for knowing small nickel stock. Share your favorites in comments below. I know most here are just
it's just a deal type, but appreciate hearing from you.
LENR Technology:
www.ecat-world.com
Low CO2 energy. Having recently dealt with 70 something houses and businesses be affected by a natural gas over pressurization am thankful no one has to move outside the zone of a nuclear plant, so keep it real and keep it safe. Rule #1: Don't loose the money, Rule #2: Rule #1.
@pokethebear
Cocoa futures monthly demand in control, long opportunitiesCocoa futures monthly demand in control, long opportunities. Going short with monthly demand level in control is very risky and low odds. Very strong monthly demand created with proximal line at 1995. New daily demand zones being created, not yet available. Longer term long bias with this monthly demand zone in control.
BTC – What if – Part II – Gold, Coins and Bank NotesHi Traders!
So as we promised we will publish another idea basing on the infographic from Jeff Desjardins and visualcapitalist.com
Just to recall they made a massive work to sum up all the money assets all around the world.
As it is more frequently said, especially in the finance world, cryptocurrencies are becoming considered as a new class of assets. Class asset? What is that you may think? Here is the explanation.
All money invested in many ways can be divided into a couple of groups which differ from each other. We can invest money into commodities which are crude, oil, gold, silver etc. This is just one asset type (class). Money can also be invested in real estate – commercial properties, housing, agricultural land. This is another class. We can distinguish a couple of more asset classes such as stock exchange, global money supply, global debt market and finally derivatives.
We are planning to prepare the whole set of analysis “ What If” describing each asset separately.
Here is just the introduction to give you the general idea.
Let’s assume this time we expect 10% of the money influx from global assets from just gold and global currencies (coins and banknotes).
Gold represents the value of around $7.7 trillion and coins and banknotes represent the value of $7.8 trillion. Together they are worth $16.5 trillion dollars.
So let’s take 10% of this sum and invest into crypto which can easily come. Why easily? Cash is close at hand and can be easily spent. BTC is to be considered as a digital gold. We are sure you heard it many times. So there is no any reason why that 10% shouldn’t go to BTC or any other cryptocurrency.
So let us do the math.
10% of $16.5 trillion is $1.65 trillion. The current dominance of the BTC is around 50%.
Let’s say $857,5 billion goes straight to BTC.
So the current market cap of BTC is $113 billion. It means we would have a massive demand on BTC making its capitalization 8,5 bigger (we added 857,5 + 113 as the total market cap of BTC).
So, as a result, we should have 8,5 times higher price of the one BTC which would be at
the level of $ 55 000. So we would like to see such numbers. Preferably before Christmas 2018.
This would be the best Christmas gift ever!
Do You like such scenario guys?
What are your expectations towards this Christmas?
BTC price on such level, new Lambo or pair of socks?
Massive HUGS!
WBM Team
S&P500 futures index is about to break all time highsS&P500 futures index is about to break all time highs again breaking the weekly supply barrier at 2879. Clear long term longs bias with new weekly and demand demand levels being created. Expecting a breakout of all time highs that will probably last for a couple of weeks before it retraces again.
A very similar scenario has already happened on Russell 2000 and Nasdaq futures indexes. Similar weekly supply zones have been eliminated and price retraced to the newly created weekly demand level.
The Effect of Futures Expiration and ETF Decisions on BTCAll traders and investors should be aware of two sets of key dates in BTC:
1) The date that Bitcoin Futures contracts expire (shown on the chart in black in the past, and orange in the future)
Futures contracts let traders bet on whether the price will rise or fall, without actually having to hold bitcoins. Whilst in principal the start of these should push the value of BTC up, the dates that these contracts expire has never coincided with a bullish few days in Bitcoin (although the effect, if indeed there is correlation, thankfully seems to be short term). In fact the very first futures expiration was December 17th 2017... coinciding with Bitcoin dropping like a rock from it's all time high of the previous day! This may have been coincidental, or the futures expiration just might have been the trigger for the beginning of the correction, which is always inevitable and necessary after a huge pump.
Regardless, the next Bitcoin Futures contract (by CME) expires tomorrow 27th July and hence is unlikely to coincide with a bullish period. The epic bull run to a new all time high is more likely to come with my next point...
2) The date that a decision is given on a Bitcoin ETF (shown on the chart in green)
If you haven't heard of the various Bitcoin ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) applications which have been filed you really should do some research - they will open the floodgates to literally billions of dollars from retail traders and individual accredited investors in the US public market and is widely anticipated to mark the start of the next moon shot in BTC. The US SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) are due to give their next ETF decision on August 16th, although this is widely expected to be delayed to September. However market sentiment remains positive on the impending decision and likely the reasoning behind the recent pump in BTCUSD as this anticipated approval is being priced in. I say "anticipated", but well-connected individuals may already have been advised of which way the decision is going to go. On the other hand, this could be a bull trap, it's very hard to say.
"With the release of an ETF, this allows investors to add BTC to their retirement portfolio. Global Pensions Market: $41.3 trillion. If BTC captures just 1% of global pensions, that would create $413,000,000,000 of exposure for cryptocurrencies."
These Bitcoin Futures expiration and ETF decision dates may or may not be included in your trading and investment strategies, but they are at the very least worth being aware of.
Please give me a thumbs up and follow me if you found my analysis interesting. This is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Dow Jones Mini FuturesIs it at all possible that the DJI may have topped?
I haven't done an in-depth EW analysis, and lets face it, I am no expert. But:
1. A trade war (between the USA and China, Canada, the EU, and Mexico etc) seems more likely than unlikely (whatever your beliefs may be about the benefits vs costs long-term for
American Businesses and populace, I find it hard to make a case for anything apart from increased costs and uncertainty in the short to medium term),
2. There seem on the face of things to have been at least five sub-divisions of the 2009 to present trend, which (three waves with and two smaller waves against the trend) would suggest the DJI is now in a corrective phase.
On purely technical grounds I would consider a short trade, targeting the lower TL with a mild possibility that the short may have been entered slghtly too early.
This short is based on:
1. EW count,
2. trend-line resistance
3. Bearish RSI divergence
I'm not a professional and this analysis is undertaken entirely for my own education and to keep in touch with the markets.
Soubean Futures Bearish outlookAfter seeing such a steep recent decline I started looking for signs of a bullish bounce. Unfortunately, it looks brutal:
1. recently retraced more than 100% of previous up-move, which indicated additional consolidation / correction is needed.
2. While it is a little messy, I can make out a 5 wave down move from the 2012 highs. This would mean we are likely only slightly over half-way in the current correction.
3. The symmetrical triangle is also likely part of primary wave B (which often takes the form of a triangle) and it indicates continuation in this case.
If there wasn't significant selling pressure then wave (C) would normally surpass (A). The move could go to $270 if the primary wave C meets a 1:1 extension of wave A. If I end up trading this I will lock in profits along the way in case primary wave C doesn't meet a 1:1 extension.
I am not a financial professional. This is a 100% technical analysis and has not considered any fundamental factors. I prefer to present both views normally, but if there is a bullish case I can't see it from the price action alone.
Platinum Futures Elliott Wave AnalysisI'm new to commodities and relatively new to Technical Analysis. No associated fundamental Analysis has been undertaken on Platinum.
This analysis is shared simply to further my own education and hopefully someone will appreciate it.
US Majors setting up for a massive upside rallyMy analysis shows the US majors are setting up for a massive upside rally over the next 3~7 weeks. Many people are freaked out about the market's recent decline, yet this is just the type of price rotation that the market needs to advance higher. Failure to achieve new price lows will result in a massive price reversal driving prices much higher. Watch as new price highs are attempted within 3~7 weeks.
ICEUS JULY COFFEE : THE MARKET IS PREPARING FOR A MAJOR RALLYBullish diagonal triangle formation + P/O divergence
Be prepared for a significant rally.
Clear close above the upper bound
will confirm it.
ES1! - TESTING 0.382 FIB RETRACEHere we have a 45 min chart of the ES1!.
The ES1! rebounded nicely yesterday fueled by a 45 min squeeze firing off to the long side late in the day.
The ES1! is now testing the 0.382 Fib retrace level of the 3/13 high to the 3/23 low retrace.
If it fails to break through this resistance level, look for a reversal to the downside.
Also note that a 45 min squeeze is once again active.
The direction that this squeeze fires off will add to the momentum of the price movement coming off of the 0.382 Fib retrace level.
Happy Trading!
~KP
BTC Update 13032018 + Lesson on futuresG'day Cobbers,
It seems my posts are being hidden by tradeview for a breach in house rules, I guess my affiliate link is pushing the friendship a little too far, my bad. Who would of thought I would get censored after paying $60 buckaroos a month and spreading free education and trade ideas. Any way moving on.
After a little bullrun last night we had our what seems daily drop, it is looking very bearish on the higher time frame charts, weekly closed out red and the new week has continued on with said trend down. Daily we have a clear bear flag /pennant formed and while we are green as we approach the end of the structure, bear flags are bearish and generally break down, not always though, so keep watch. We may still have another push towards the top of the structure before tomorrow, If we can close green today it would be a positive move towards ending this run.
Now for a little education cobbers,
When we are looking at the shorts vs long contracts above, people tend to think that if the shorts are outnumbering the longs that it is a positive sign towards a bear run, not so. What people tend to not understand is that for a future contract to be made, you need a long and a short position on each side, so no matter how many contracts there are, there is always an equal amount of short vs longs, what changes os how many contacts (value) is held by each position. So when shorts outnumber longs by a large majority , it mean few people have all the contracts spread across their positions and the longs have less contracts per position/person. Think about that for a moment, the big money, the multi-million dollar positions are long but the masses with much smaller contracts vs position is short. In this situation who do you think s in the better position? Big players can manipulate this market, the got these large position sizes by smart trading. Also with so many short position open, it gives massive liquidity for a long bull run, especially when the masses are entrenched in theory bear position, ending u trapped and then selling when pain gets to much and adding to the liquidity for the bull run.
So be aware of this factor, as well as volume and price action. A good habit is to watch on three time frames, dependent on your trading style, you could trade 1 day, 1 hour and 15mins, treat your daily as the tide, hourly as the waves and the 15mins as the ripples. Daily gives you the main trend direction (tide), use the hourly to ride the waves for shorter term trading while riding the tide and the ripples to help your entry and exit positions.
Give me a follow and we can delve deeper into these ideas at another stage and please share and like.
G'day
Thanks for dropping by, hopefully you garner something valuable from my post, be it educational or an idea towards a trade of your own. Please share, like and comment and engage with me, I am here to help.
Trader, Chart analyst and all round larrikin. Reside in NQ Australia, surrounded by Crocodiles, snakes & giant spiders, not to mention the boxing Kangaroos and devilish Drop bears. It makes my job quite hazardous but strewth mate, I love it.
Silver READY TO LAUNCH Look.... Poor Silver has been manipulated for years... but that's okay.. Cheap $silver for us right??
Better hurry up and stack as much as possible cause things will change quick...!
Silver is completely off the radar to most investors,
it will turn out to be one of the best investments to own as the massive amount of leverage in the stock and real estate market evaporates...
March 26th: China Petro Gold Backed Yuan Starts Trading on this date. No more Petrodollar...
Source: www.zerohedge.com
The last 7 years... JP Morgan has accumulated over 130 million ounces of $Silver bullion. HMM
Source: www.zerohedge.com
We look at how many net short contracts there are,
Source: seekingalpha.com
It is super undervalued compared to other metals, Palladium, Platinum, Gold.
It is artificiality cheap due to manipulation.
Silver indeed is true wealth. EVERYONE should have some bullion with them.
-Luke
