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Fundamental and statistical analysis method - ExplainedHi All, I have been asked by few in comments and personally to post fundamental analysis of few other companies in similar way as that of FB and PYPL (as per linked ideas). Since, I will not be able to take all the requests, I thought I will make a video explaining how to do it yourself :) ⬜ Following things are discussed in the video 🎲 Earnings Not significant unless the gap is too much. Things to look for are: If the recent earnings and revenue has met expectation/estimation If the next earning/revenue estimates are higher/lower than current one. Cyclical nature of quarterly earnings - check results and estimations of last two years of same quarter 🎲 Quality Can use open source script Quality-Screen from community library. Color coded based on standards and very generic method. May also need to consider that some of these stats may be industry and sector based and may require comparison among similar stocks. Overall - if green/lime good, if lots of red/orange - bad. Silver - in between. 🎲 Relative Growth Can use open source script Relative-Growth-Screen from community library. Applies Bollinger bands/ Keltener channel to define whether they are relatively high or low. Can also use RSI - but, have not tried :) Measures growth over past few years. 🎲 Drawdown from ATH Price drawdown from ATH and historical drawdown levels. Can use open source script Drawdown-Range from community library. Tells what is the current price drawdown from ATH. Provides details on historical drawdown levels and ranges. 🎲 Drawdown comparison - price vs fundamentals Percentile-Price-vs-Fundamentals is the utility I built to carry out the comparison. I am not sure if there are any other comparable tools. Tool is useful for comparing if price drawdown is justified with the drop of fundamentals or if this is an overreaction. ⬜ Please note ▶ News events and probability of future potentials are not taken into consideration. Objective here is to work solely based on the readily available stats. ▶ It is unreliable use this method for short term trading as we cannot be sure when the things going to price in or if they have already priced in. ▶ Not a financial advise. Just an idea based on the research I have done so far. Constructive criticism welcome. Happy to learn from others.
NYSE:BRK.BEducation
by Trendoscope
all The Things you Need To know About Web 3.0 🟡In This Article we want to talk about Web3 and It's Effects on The Internet,Conncetion To Metaverse,Cryptocurrencies and Great Projects With Awesome Potentials First, there was web1 – aka the internet we all know and love. Then there was web2 – the user-generated web, heralded by the arrival of social media. Now, wherever we look, people are talking about web3 (or sometimes, web 3.0) – the supposed next big evolutionary leap forward of the internet. But what is it, exactly? Well, opinions on this differ somewhat. Web3 is currently a work-in-progress and isn’t exactly defined yet. However, the main principle is that it will be decentralized – rather than controlled by governments and corporations, as is the case with today’s internet – and, to some extent, connected to the concept of the “metaverse." Before we start – just to avoid confusion – it’s worth mentioning that, until a few years ago, the term “web 3.0” was frequently used to describe what is now known as the “semantic web." This was a concept put forward by the original "father of the internet," Sir Tim Berners-Lee, for a machine-to-machine internet. Language is defined by its use, and the term is more frequently used to describe something else now. However, Berners-Lee’s concepts are considered to be a part of what we now call web3, although not the entirety of it. 🟢What is the decentralized web? Let’s look at decentralization first. Today, all of the infrastructure that the popular sites and hangouts we spend time on online are usually owned by corporations and, to some extent, controlled by regulations set out by governments. This is because this was the simplest way to build network infrastructure – someone pays to install servers and set up software on them that people want to access online, and then either charges us to use it or lets us use it for free, as long as we abide by their rules. Today, we have other options, and in particular, we have blockchain technology. Blockchain is a relatively new method of storing data online, which is built around the two core concepts of encryption and distributed computing. Encryption means that the data stored on a blockchain can only be accessed by people who have permission to do so – even if the data happens to be stored on a computer belonging to someone else, like a government or a corporation. And distributed computing means that the file is shared across many computers or servers. If one particular copy of it does not match all of the other copies, then the data in that file isn’t valid. This adds another layer of protection, meaning no one person other than whoever is in control of the data can access or change it without the permission of either the person who owns it or the entire distributed network. Put together, these concepts mean data can be stored in a way so that it is only ever under the control of the person who owns it, even if it happens to be stored on a server owned by a corporation or subject to the control of a local government. The owner or government can never access or change the data without the keys to the encryption that proves they own it. And even if they shut down or remove their server, the data is still accessible on one of the hundreds of other computers that it’s stored on. Pretty clever, right? Other important concepts that are often used in relation to the technical infrastructure of web3 are that it is open, meaning largely built on open-source software, trustless and permissionless. Trustless means that interactions and transactions can take place between two parties without the need for a trusted third party. This was not necessarily the case on web2 or below because you would have to be certain that whoever owned the medium you were using to interact or transact was not manipulating your communications. A good example of a web3 trustless transaction would be sending Bitcoin directly to another person – not via an online exchange or wallet stored on a centralized server. The entire process of making the transaction is controlled by the blockchain algorithm and encryption, and there is close to zero chance that anyone can step in and disrupt it. Similarly, "permissionless" means that neither party in a transaction or interaction have to seek permission from a third party (such as a service provider or government) before it can take place. By the way, if you think all this talk about avoiding government interference sounds a little bit anarchistic or libertarian, then you’re not alone! There are still big questions to be answered about the implications that this lack of oversight or control has for safety and legality. We’ve already seen governments attempt to create legislation that will allow them to retain some level of control over communications and interactions on the web3. This includes the UK Government’s indications that it would like to regulate citizens' ability to send end-to-end encrypted messages. 🔵Web3 concepts – the DAO The Decentralised Autonomous Organisation (DAO) is a web3 concept describing a group, company or collective that are bound by rules and regulations coded into a blockchain. For example, in a DAO-based shop, the price of all of the items, as well as details on who would get pay-outs from the business, would be held on a blockchain. Shareholders in the DAO would be able to vote to change prices or who gets the money. However, no individual could change the rules without having permission to do so. And no one who owned the physical infrastructure, such as the server owners, or the owners of the facilities where the profits were stored, could interfere in any way, like running off with the takings! Crucially, DAOs - in theory - eliminate the need entirely for many of the “men-in-the-middle” needed to run an organization – such as bankers, lawyers, accountants, and landlords. 🔴Artificial intelligence (AI) and web 3.0 Most people believe that AI will play a big part in web3. This is due to the heavy involvement of machine-to-machine communication and decision-making that will be needed to run many web3 applications. 🟢How does the metaverse fit with web3? The last important concept of web3 that we have to cover is the metaverse. In relation to web3, the term “metaverse” covers the next iteration of the internet’s front-end – the user interface through which we interact with the online world, communicate with other users, and manipulate data. Just in case you’ve missed all the hype – the idea of the metaverse is that it will be a much more immersive, social and persistent version of the internet which we all know and love. It will use technologies like virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) to draw us in, enabling us to interact with the digital domain in more natural and immersive ways – for example, by using virtual hands to pick up and manipulate objects, and our voices to give instructions to machines, or talk to other people. In many ways, the metaverse can be thought of as the interface through which humans will engage with web3 tools and applications. It’s possible to create web3 applications without the metaverse being involved – Bitcoin is one example – but it’s thought that metaverse technology and experiences will play a big part in the way many of these applications will interact with our lives. ⚪This all sounds great, and everyone must love it, right? Well, actually, no. It should be mentioned that there has been a fair amount of high-profile criticism of web3. Elon Musk has made several comments, including stating that it “seems more like a marketing buzzword than a reality right now" and tweeting, “Has anyone seen web3? I can’t find it.” Former Twitter CEO, Jack Dorsey, on the other hand, has questioned whether it will be as free and open as many hope. He said, "You don't own web3. The VCs and their LPs do. It will never escape their incentives. It’s ultimately a centralized entity with a different label.” Others don’t like many of the current proposals for web3 due to the fact that they are built on blockchain, which can sometimes be very energy-intensive, contributing to carbon emissions and climate change. The Bitcoin blockchain, for example, is estimated to consume around the same amount of energy as Finland. Other blockchains – such as those that are built on proof-of-stake algorithms rather than proof-of-work, are not as energy-intensive. 🟡Some of The Great Web 3 Crypto Projects are: DOT LINK THETA FIL BTT BAT AUDIO and Many other Cool Projects! ................................................................................ Thank you for seeing idea . Have a nice day and Good luck
Education
by CobraVanguard
21
Enhanced Magic Formula for fundamental analysisThis is an experimental procedure based on fundamentals. Since, there isn't much option to backtest these methodologies, I am trying to create a trade and then measure performance over long period of time. Magic Formula investing method is invented by Joel Greenblatt . In a nutshell strategy does following: Rank all the stocks based on Return on Capital Rank all the stocks based on Earning Yield Add these ranks to come up with a combined rank. Invest equally in first 10 stoscks of combined. Rebalance yearly. Concept here is, earnings yield represents value whereas return on capital represents quality. Combining these two to get the stocks which have best of both. More information on the methodology is present here: www.investopedia.com Improved Method : Since, tradingview does not allow comparing fundamentals or technicals of all stocks, I had to do this in python. Output report can be found here: docs.google.com Basic Filtering of Stocks: Basic filtering of stocks is done based on the methods as mentioned in quality screen indicator: Since the financial data is taken from yahoo for generating report, some of the quality parameters are not included and there can be slight changes in the fundamental values present in tradingview. No other initial filtering is applied. Derive ranks on several Value, Profitability, Growth and Cashflow parameters: Value Parameters : P/E, P/S, P/B, P/C, P/FCF, PE-Forwarding, PEG Ratio Profitability Parameters : ROA, ROE, ROI, GrossMargin, OperatingMargin, ProfitMargin Growth and Momentum Parameters : Quarterly, Half Yearly and Yearly Performance, Upside Calculated from analyst valuation Cashflow Parameters : Quick Ratio, Current Ratio, Debt to Equity, Long term Debt to Equity, Debt to Assets, Long term debt to assets. Derive composite rank for Value, Profitability, Growth and Cashflow based on individual ranks: For example, Add up all ranks of value parameter to come up with Value Score. And then sort value score in ascending order to get value rank Derive combination ranks such as value/growth rank, value/profitability rank etc by similar method: Also create combined rank which considers all 4 ranks - value, profitability, growth and cashflow. Sort the values based on combined rank to get top value/quality stocks - which represents lowest score. Final stock selection consideration : Instead of picking first 10 stocks, I have picked stocks from different sectors thus sacrificing bit of Magic Formula edge. This is to avoid high concentration on single sector. Final list of stocks selected: SBSW - Basic Materials (Gold) VALE - Basic Materials (Industrial Metals and Mining) GOOG - Communication Services (Internet and Information) CROX - Consumer Cyclical (Footwear and Accessories) ENVA - Financial (Credit Services) EVR - Financial (Capital Markets) UTHR - Healthcare (Biotechnology) LPX - Industrial (Building Products and Equipment) TER - Technology (Semicondoctor Equipment & Materials) AMAT - Technology (Semicondoctor Equipment & Materials)
NYSE:SBSWEducation
by Trendoscope
7
Plotting bitcoin and doge supplyTrading view calculates the market cap for bitcoin and doge. I don't know how the market cap is precisely calculated by them. However, for the sake of exploration, I'm going to assume it is simply taking the available supply and multiplying it by the price of one coin. From there, we can use arithmetic to plot the total supply. market cap = supply * price supply = market cap / price That is the line plotted in the indicators underneath each chart. It tracks coins supply denominated in millions, 18.7M bitcoin and 129,427.06M doge. What we see for the bitcoin chart makes a lot of sense. Supply is growing steadily and linearly. Every day about 900 bitcoins are mined (6.25 every 10 minutes approx.). The graph shows that consistent growth at an almost precise 45-degree angle. What we see for the doge chart is puzzling. Every day about 14,400,000 doge coins are mined (10,000 every minute approx.). The daily minting rate is fixed just as with bitcoin. So, I would have expected a similar plot with linear growth. Instead, for the most part, the graph is relatively flat. And for the past 25 days, it is entirely flat. To my surprise, the last value does match with what coinmarketcap reports as the supply: 129.53B What am I missing here?
Education
by yalla-yalla-habibi
[Advanced] How to aggressively grow a small (10k) account?Most of the time growing an account is a very slow grind. Make some, lose some, hope to make a little bit more than you lose. For example, with an average risk to reward of 1 to 5, and a win ratio of 21% (not counting once a year outliers), which is pretty good, breakeven being at 16.67%, after 100 trades the result will be - with a risk of 1% (flat) each time: - Profits = 21*5 = 105% - Loses = 78*1 = - 79% Net result = 26% Finding 100 good trades might take more than 1 year. With a theoritical compounding of 1% each trade the max profit would be: - Net = (1.05)^21 * (0.99)^79 = 25.94% Compounding is not always the magic trick. You might be looking at something like 20% a year. But once in a while, often in September-October, and sometimes at specific times such as March-April 2020, we get these monsters that go way further than usual. Often from a boring tight period, an explosion that grows exponentially, this pushes the reward dramatically. So we can end with a few winners at 10, 15R, rather than the usual ~5. So you can "easily" get the regular barely above breakeven 20% (for the example) with on top of that an occasional 10, 20, or even more, percent. On our small accounts these extras feel good, and they give a nice boost, but nothing dramatic. Growing a 10k account into 100k even with 50% a year will take 6 years. With 30% a year that would take 9 years. With 20% a year, 13 years. An experienced but poor investor, that spent years working on entries, exits, and so on, will need do something rather "dramatic" to grow his account. Doesn't have to be a complete gamble. An idea is after one of these "boost" periods, the investor could put all of that profit at risk. Say he made 32%, losing it all would be a major drawdown of 25%, but if the investor sees it as extra it is not the same as a crippling drawdown. Having a great period is nice (within years of moderate consistency), but it is not life changing. It might be a good idea to use that as some sort of springboard (or launchpad): - Losing that profit is a return to last step it is disapointing and the grind continues but even with an extra 30% the grind would still continue it wasn't going to be life changing. Maybe 6 months - 1 year worth of profit lost (but it was "extra" anyway). - Not losing it all (winning or even a period of breakeven) is great because it will allow the account to leap up suddenly, you quickly end up years ahead. So how does this work? Going to use an example. The investor gets 100 trades a year because why not (that's 2 a week or a little over 8 a month), has a reward 5 times the risk and a winrate of 21% (PF = 1.33). Account size = $10,000. Risk per trade = $100. The investor was able to grow 4000 into 10,000 over 4 years "slowly" (not that slow) but surely. The biggest drawdown ever was 20%. The yearly return is 26%. Over September to November he made $4000. He would "normally" make $1000 over 3 active months like this, but as is often the case, that period was violent with fear moves, winners just kept going and our investor that was able to add early ended up with 2 winners at 9+7 R each. So 32R. It can go very fast. 32%, on top of 8% on other grindy trades (over 3 months). Trying to catch whole trends and hold forever in my opinion is not realistic, but adding once or twice to winners is (talking about FX here), and winners (especially in March 2020 or September-October) going vertical does happen. So now how does the 10K investor scale up? Well $100 was 1%. 1% of 14,000 would be $140. but how about he more than doubles the risk?! So investor's profit in Sept-Nov was $4000 ("regular" $800 + "extra" $3200) and he/she decides to put it all at risk. He pushes the risk up to $280 which is now 2% of the new account size. After 12 loss in a row (down 3360) all the "extra" will be gone with only $640 profit left, the risk will then be reduced progressively, first down to 200 and if losses continue, 150 and finally back to 100. To attempt this our investor must have several years of results. From these years, taking out the handful of outliers, we know average RR & WR. The important question is what are the odds of 12 losses in a row? (With 21% WR) ==> First the probability of 12 losses in a row (if it was a random coinflip) are 6%. The odds are rather low. ==> Second the odds of exactly 11 losses out of 12 are 19%. In that case investor lost 1680/3360 -> Half. Still 6 lives left. ==> Once investor has 6 lives left the odds of losing all 6 times are 24%. Risking 280 rather than 140 means in 1 year rather than grow by 3640 (26%) the account will grow by 7280 (52%). Basically fast forward 1 year. In a way this is risking 1 year of profits to make 2. With something like 80% odds of making it. Aiming for much less than 12 lives is really gambling. An investor could also go for 20 or more lives but the higher the number the slower the grind. With 6 lives there is 1 chance in 4 to lose it all. But it would be a $560 risk, a huge increase from $100. Is there really a need to increase size by that much at once? It would not even accelerate growth that much. Our little investor can always make another jump after that first one. Because yes, that snowball can keep getting bigger. It is a terrible idea to keep going double or nothing, eventually it will be nothing, but we could find a compromise between being very careful and careless. We might not accept a 30% drawdown, or losing 3 years of very difficult very slow profit but if we can separate that say slow grindy 15% a year and go "I won't risk this" but the once a year or two monsters that provide 20%-40% at once (arbitrary numbers) we can see it as "extra", we got our account with 10k in in and the 4000 we just made well losing the 4000 technically would be a 30% drawdown on 14k but we can perhaps separate this, it was unexpected, and we put all of this capital at risk, without hurting our "main" capital. Might be a great way to boost growth without risking to blow up or being set back years. And if it works out. As I said the example investor (which is already at least in the top 5% by the way) made 7280 rather than 3640. An extra $3640. Actually since his account was $10,000 and he was supposed to make about 3600 in 1.25 year, but instead made 7280 + 4000 = 11,280, well that's an extra of about $7500. Last time investor risked 3400/4000 in 12 trades (6% odds of losing all 12 and perhaps ~15% odds of losing all that money over a longer time), maybe this time investor wants to risk 6000/7500 in 12 trades ($500 each!). 26R = $13,000. If it works out in 2 years investor's account went from $10,000 to $34,000 rather than $16,000. $24,000 profit rather than $6000 (or $10000 with the big winners). With what? 1 in 4 odds of only making 6000? It is still going to take years anyway, but it is possible to take ponctual big risks to try and jump up a few steps, without playing russian roulette either. Another quick example... I think this example is within the good compromise area. It would be possible to go "I will risk $1200 over the next 3 ($400 each)" but just 3 trades that gets rather random so it becomes gambling. Over several years risking "1200" (12% base account) over the next 3, well the randomness would even out but seems bad, better to have some sort of certainty. 4% and 6% odds to immediately fail means 94/96% odds of success, unless really bad luck that should rarely happen, this should work. Just not with rent money. And even if it fails the "base account" is still here, simply some unexpected profit evaporated. If it fails, can always re-try next time, after another while of grinding, making sure we are still actually profitable and it was just bad luck. On top of this whole concept of putting profit at risk for a boost, there are the very rare "generational" trades (George Soros versus BoE 1992), where risk is known to be limited (so no swiss tsunami), the odds are really high (way more than 21%), and the reward will be even better than 5R. Also more generally when having a great winning period, great conditions, but I would not trust anyone to be objective about that. Our eager investor that made 4000 could out 3000 at risk over 12 trades with $250 each, and leave the remaining 1000 for the "great ones" where maybe $300 can be risked at once (and if it works out a one time 1500-3000 boost), 300 being "only" 2% of 14000 so it's still fine, not completely crazy (we are talking about a serious investor that has been doing well for a few years not a retail day trader with a gambling addiction). Just like with trade selection strategies, there is no secret magic trick. This scaling strategy is honestly the best I can do. Maybe 1 last example... And finally, this can be tweaked. Rather than rambo the risk from $100 to $280 in the example I choose, still putting all or most of the 4000 at risk, an investor could first increase the risk to $190 (takes 20 losses to lose most of the 4000 rather than 12), and if that goes well, which if it's a profitable investor is more likely than not, then once at +5R (+$950) or so investor could then increase it $280 which overall is safer, and much more likely to work out. With $280 from the start 5R would be 1400 so investor left 450 on the table, not that big of a deal. From that point the next 12 will have a 280 risk, if unlucky then there is still profits left and we can drop to 190 before returning to only 100 which hopefully won't be the case, at least most of the time. Then stay at 280 a while (if it works out) and next time big profits appear, risk that + a part of the 4000, without touching the rest of the profit made in the meantime. Risking profits is really not the same as risking the "bulk" or "base" capital, that's a slippery slope... Rule number 1 = protect your capital Rule number 2 = do not lose money
Editors' picks
Education
by MrRenev
99
How To Use Sparks To Kickstart Your ResearchThis video was created by our team to introduce you to the new Sparks tool. Sparks are curated lists to help kickstart your research process. You can find lists of symbols related to specific topics like outer space, alt coins, and a lot more. Markets are sometimes driven by themes, trends, and narratives. Within those themes and trends are lists of symbols that are working to change something or build a better future. With the right research tools, investors and traders can find opportunities and capture enormous growth. But it all starts with a diligent research process and Sparks were created to help all investors and traders get started. That's key, getting started. All it takes is a spark to light a fire, to find the next best investment or trade. For example, here are some Sparks that may interest you: 1. Self-Driving Car Companies www.tradingview.com 2. Environmentally Friendly Stocks 3. Proof of Work Cryptocurrencies 4. Proof of Stake Cryptocurrencies 5. WallStreetBets Stocks And these are only a few examples. Our team is looking build even more Sparks in the future. Our goal is to help all investors and traders learn more about markets. If you have any questions or comments, please write them below. You can also request specific Sparks in the comments below. Thanks for watching the video and following along! - Team TradingView
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:ATVIEducation
by TradingView
24
How to read an Income StatementOne of the three major financial statements used to reflect a company's financial performance during a certain accounting period is the income statement . The income statement shows a company’s revenue and expenses over a period of time. It is also called a Profit and Loss statement or P&L. The most common time periods of reporting are: 1. 1 quarter (90 days) 2. 1 year (365 days) 3. TTM (“trailing twelve months”) 4. YTD (year to date) Companies usually show the income statement in the quarterly earnings press release but not always. You can find them by looking at: 1. 10-Q (quarterly report) 2. 10-K (annual report) The income statement focuses on four key items— revenue, expenses, gains, and losses . It makes no distinction between cash and non-cash revenues (cash sales vs. credit sales) or cash vs. non-cash payments/disbursements (purchases in cash versus purchases on credit). The income statement flows in a step-down manner. The top number is revenue (sales) and costs are subtracted as you go down. Let’s take them one by one: 1) Revenue – this is the amount received or to be received from the sales of products/services during this period. Sales revenue is net, meaning it includes discounts, returns and any other deductions from the sales price. 2) COGS (cost of goods sold) – this figure shows all of the costs & expenses related to producing the product or that service. If you sell smartphones these would be the variable costs of: chips, plastic, labor costs, etc…to manufacture smartphones. 3) Gross profit – this is Revenue – COGS. It is also called “gross income”. 4) Operating expenses (OPEX) – a category that includes all costs to run a company’s day-to-day operations. These categories may include: Research and Development (R&D), Sales, Marketing, Selling, General and Administrative (SG&A), Overhead (rent, utilities, travel, salary, bonus, stock-based compensation). 5) Operating income – Gross Profit – OPEX. This shows how much profit a company earned from its ongoing operations. It is also called “EBIT”, which stands for “Earnings Before Interest and Taxes”. 6) Interest Expense – The amount of interest paid during this period. This can also include other types of financing charges like loan origination fees. 7) Pre-tax income – OPEX-Interest Expense. Also called “EBT” or “Earnings before Tax” 8) Income Tax Expense – Taxes paid to federal and local governments. 9) Net Income – Also called earning or profits. If the number is positive the business is profitable. If the number is negative, the business is unprofitable. To calculate “Earnings per share” or EPS we must divide the net income to the amount of shares outstanding a company has. For example: If a company makes 10 million and it has 1 million shares outstanding, each share is entitled to $10. An income statement may provide a lot of information about a company's operations. It comprises a business's operations, managerial efficiency, potential profit-eroding leaky areas, and if the organization is operating in line with industry peers. Trade with care. If you like our content, please feel free to support our page with a like, comment & subscribe for future educational ideas and trading setups.
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by financialflagship
23
The 5 ways civilizations collapseI watched a great video about the collapse of civilizations and I'd like to comment on it, with a bit more of a focus on the economic reasons and outcomes. 1- Crushed in a war by a far stronger force Destroyed, or elite destroyed (government & big banks & business owners) Aztec Inca Baghdad Carthage... Modern examples include Iraq and Libya. Just look at before and after pictures. Libya was destroyed by the USA and has returned to slavery, Iraq is some sort of warzone with a currency being literally sold as a ponzi scheme (search the Iraqi Dinar scam), he by the way the "it will go up" Dinar crashed so hard a few months ago I wasn't sure if it was worth posting about. PRO TIP: DO NOT INVEST IN A COUNTRY THE USA ARE ABOUT TO "BRING DEMOCRACY" TO! 2- Too aristocratic Central American, Andean, Greek, Anatolian, Syrian, Ghana, Zimbabwe, Indus Valley, Khmer civilizations ended in big part because they were too inegalitarian. (Very) ancient civilizations were all ultra aristocratic with the population getting vampirized by a minority through slavery (wageslavery), ravenous taxes (reminds me of something), human sacrifices. And they went down the same way. In ~1150 BC all civilizations around the anatolian peninsula (including the famous Mycenaean one in Greece) rapidly collapsed at around the same time. In some cases tiny barbarian armies were able to wipe out much stronger civilizations. The reason is the population hated their parasitic rulers and did not want to pay heavy taxes for their rulers to waste (ancient elites did not know well how to manipulate a population into submission and even WANTING higher taxes, also people used to have more common sense) The world entering the iron age meant the plebes could easily get armed, and an unfair government with crushing taxes would simply get killed (like in France in 1789). I wonder why today governments are trying so hard to disarm the population? Probably just a coincidence. Ancient Egypt near the end had taxes that could get as high as 60%. Huh with 25% corporate taxes plus 20% VAT plus 15% social contributions plus 10-50% income tax plus other taxes we're easily reaching that Egypt max and even going past it. We do not have that much evidence of bronze age nations, but more recently we know that the American and French revolutions started as tax revolts against unfair privileged governments. Everyone knows this, it's clear, precise, not my opinion, unlike the subjective list Davos made on how civilizations end (link at the bottom of this article). Inequality also allowed some ruling class to replace the previous one, like with the Caliphates for example. The population was keen for a change of government. These bronze nations with crushing taxes I mentioned could never grow very big and collapsed with the iron age (bronze weapons and armors were expensive and slow to make but not iron which allowed the peasants to get armed and not submit). Following their collapse large empires rose, such as the Roman and Persian mega-empires (at its height, 50% of the world population lived in the Persian empire, talk about a beast). Rome only had a 1% wealth tax from what I've read and did not over-rely on slaves. Rome lasted 1000 years and ended because of decadence. Obviously treating the population fairly (mostly with reasonable taxes, that's really all they care about), rather than a population that hates the rulers and would see foreign invaders as saviors, is what allowed these empires to grow and maintain their size. Modern governments tricked the workers into thinking "only the rich pay" and playing this childish "divide to conquer" tactic, but everyone pays, and people over time slowly figure it out. Some extremely ignorant and stupid members of the population support 90% taxes. Never seen in history. Cool so a company hiring workers will have to charge $10,000 for them, pay $9000, and there's $1000 left as wage minus the owner margin with life being way more expensive (hiring a $2000 wage plumber would cost $20,000). In inflation adjusted terms if basic workers still get charged $3000, rather than getting a wage of $1500 they'll get 10% so $300, minus the boss margin. Brilliant! So they would be totally reliant on welfare. And what? Even more mad at companies that pay them a misery wage? And ask for even higher taxes? Lol how are they falling for this? This explains why western government are doing everything to prevent people becoming their own boss, or they'd see it first hand. 3- Becoming too conservative After the great plague this happened: - MENA became ultra conservative, with Sharia law, and looking for the "return to the golden age". Still to this day they are primitive and ultra conservative. Iran had a ray of light of progress with the shah 50-60 years ago but it was short lived, the medieval backwards religious leaders quickly took over and imposed their rule of darkness. - India well... They were 40% or more of world GDP before, and they dropped to some unbelievable low number like 1%. They roll themselves in cow dung and bathe in the radioactive Ganga river. And open defecate. The Maharaja and silk road traders would never believe this future. It's beyond, I'd cry if I was indian. - China: I think most of the great wall was built by the Ming dynasty (1368–1644), or rebuild. They got into isolationist policies, got bureaucratic, corrupt and superstitious and stagnated at best. - West Africa: At the hand of slavers with primitive superstitions I guess. China still has their bureaucrats. Maybe that's why Africa is so poor, they whole civilizations were centered around slavers, and now they can't do that, meanwhile China is still allowed to have its bureaucrats (some of it works for them it's too much that is bad). - Russia: Became the third Rome. Went from an area of maybe 1-2 million square kilometer in east Europe and half of France population to this monster of 20 million square km and 3+ times France pop. - West Europe: Age of Enlightenment, progress and so on. Unlike others that had an unfair ruling class (Brahmins/Priests in India, Slavers in Sahel, Bureaucrats in China, Samurais in Japan, etc), the West had a balance between the monarchy, merchants, warriors and priests. Wealth equality was way greater back then that it is today. Yes the industrial revolution was a big factor. The conservative "civilizations" like China had contempt for the West, and saw them as irrelevant weirdoes. And then they went through centuries of humiliations and conquests by the West. To this day the (declining) West still makes 50% of world GDP. A funny example is India in 1000 AD during the muslim domination. The superstitious ruling priests in the face of muslim invasions rather than use taxpayer money to build armies, built... temples... are you serious? Well it did not work. Before that at the start of the iron age the old bible civs (Babylon, Assyrians...) that were ruled by corrupt and superstitious priests were wiped out by the mighty Persian empire, and Persians were so nice that people actually wanted to live there the priests had no chance of rallying the population and start a rebellion. As I explained in 2-. Bruh: "Darius allegedly asked his satraps whether the tribute was not too high. When they said it was moderate, Darius ordered that they should pay only half as much.". Another version says he took taxes and returned half of it "back to the people" (tax returns?). The empire was at its greatest extent under his rule which was in the early days of it. He divided taxes by 2 and everyone wanted to join. You don't always need huge armies. Unlike the modern west, Persia DID NOT PROVIDE AN "US VERSUS THEM" STORY. Can you imagine? A huge empire, and no divide. People actually enjoyed living there. No divide to conquer. www.oxfordhandbooks.com 4- Becoming too reformist The flip side of the conservative coin. Look at China with the cultural revolution. They went from what maybe 15% of world GDP to 1%, and they were the poorest country in the world. Russia in the early 1900s was a big empire, the 4rth world economy (smallest than Canada today) and if their population bred like non communist countries (UK, France, Germany), they'd have a population of at least a quarter of a million, they'd probably be nearly as powerful as the United States. The marxist reformists hurt Russia so much it's nauseating. They set them back at least a century. Yes there was technological and standard of living progress but of course there was! Even in Somalia. It's worldwide. It's like a super strong uptrend but within that worldwide uptrend they lagged behind. The reformists have no moral boundaries and work to totally destroy the "old world" to reach their idiotic utopia. These disgusting creatures are an absolute plague to humanity and set civilizations back centuries. They love to destroy statues, change constitutions, send people to camps, burn books etc. Hitler said about Christianity as "We have no sort of use for a fairy story invented by the Jews" and criticized its weakness compared to glorious islam, Catholics were sent to camps (especially Jehovah Witnesses) and moral standards went poof. Germany lost 1/3 of its territory, 15 million Germans were deported, West Europe stopped ruling the world, the USD became the reserve currency, and so on. Communists are so evil and stupid they dried up the Aral Sea for their "great" irrigation projects, and destroyed entire forests. The Aral Sea was one of history greatest environmental tragedies. The region economy was devastated, bringing unemployment and hardship, the sea life is gone probably millions of species went extinct, the region is a pollution disaster. And some extremely dumb celebrities (pleonasm) think communism is the solution to save the climate. "There is so little confidence in Russia's economy that there are more Rubbles outside of it than inside" damn. How long for the confidence to come back? 100 years? more? The Soviet Union (I quote): - Destroyed every functioning social system in Russia in order to usher in their glorious revolution and utopia - Artists were totally controlled - The Church was wiped out - The most productive and hardworking members of the population were killed - The ruling class enslaved people in gulags - Standards of living were lowered for faster industrialization and make it look like progress, like it was working - Non Governmental organisations and clubbed were banned - Labor Unions were banned (the irony) - People that were 1 minute late to work were eliminated by the secret police, or people feared that was the case - Makes me want to vomit Societies are held together by structures such as religion, family, patriotism. The state is not intelligent enough to control and run everything. The state tries to run the economy it's a catastrophe. The state tries to run a pandemic OH MY GOD. Anything they do is shit and vomit. I'd say the state is not intelligent enough to not forget to breathe. Oxygen thieves. The French revolution resulted in The declaration of human rights which says the government must be held responsible via violence if necessary, revolt is not a right but a duty. The Americans that wrote their Bill of Rights literally 6 months later have a similar thing with their amendments or something. Of course these sickening evil creatures that are not Politicians but demagogues with 0 convictions that only care about personal success and power and getting votes have used manipulation and brainwashing to get away with everything, cause great harm, and not get held responsible. "Extreme reformers aren't smart enough to realize how dumb they are, thinking themselves geniuses (😆) and everything that's not under their control is an evil force that gets in the way of the great plan" Today the west is obviously at risk. How big is this risk? I can't tell because this would get me mass reported and banned, and maybe even sent to jail. (That answers the question). I cri evertiem. 5- Decadence Maybe the slowest way to end. How Rome ended but it was accelerated with decadence bringing in destroying armies (1-). The 3 natural stages: Barbarism, Civilization, Decadence. Greeks near the end (obviously) saw themselves as "above" earthly matters, and used slaves for work while they enjoyed themselves in "higher" ways. In other words they were lazy bums that felt morally superior and selfish greedy perverts that took it easy. Disconnected from the real world. A bit like modern westerners with robots and not wanting to work, and importing much of what they consume. And disconnected from reality, terrified of dying at 80, willing to ban hunting, and much more. We see low birth rates (there are Roman and Greek texts complaining about this, and blaming the nobles for "having fun" rather than procreate, for "being eager to see their bloodline die"). We see low (or no) economic growth. We see sexual perversions. And so on, you get the picture. An example is when germanic barbarians invaded roman south france (gaul), the local aristocracy claimed there was no danger, barbarian terrorists that cut heads off with massive axes were a tiny number of "lunatics" nothing to worry about and those that wanted to protect the region were far right islamophobes wups I mean germanophobes. The aristocracy smelled their own farts and were stuck inside their own heads and thought it was impossible for these third world barbarians to hurt in anyway their region. Morons. What options do the population have when the ruling class is useless? It's like cutting a serpent's head. Combine being useless to outlawing weapons and spreading propaganda to make sure "radicals" never gain power and you get an inevitable collapse. So to conclude, you have all these ways for societies to collapse, once great civilizations vanish. And today: Point 4 => Who will seriously invest in Russia? So much for marxist progress. Point 1 => Who will buy Iraqi Dinars or invest in Libya other than fools? Point 3 => Who will invest in Iran? Who wants to invest in Afghanistan? Point 2 => Who wants to invest in old Babylon and Egypt. Ye there are no recent examples. Point 5 => Who wants to invest in the Nikkei 225 since 1990? But there is 1 thing that survives all these collapses, that keeps its value: It's yellow and shiny 😉 The world economic forum made their own list of reasons definitely not biased, here is a link for a good laugh: www.weforum.org
TVC:GOLDEducation
by MrRenev
The US & EU terrible demographics: What to expect and solutions.Japan, which today is the oldest country in the world, had a weird looking demographic "pyramid" 30 years ago, with a big bump in the 40s, there were 75% more japanese in their forties than 0-9 years old. What could possibly go wrong? Japan was the new superpower, everyone invested in Japan. And then it all collapsed. As usual it got so bad they actually ended up undervalued, and George Soros invested in the Nikkei before the rally a decade ago, probably using his large Forex knowledge to time the stock market. And yes he also bet on the Yen at that time and it worked very well. So what happened the the Japanese economy? In the late 80s the japanese economy surpassed the Soviet Union! That was mind blowing to everybody. And in 1995 it grew to the size of Germany + France + UK. In 1995, after the stock market - which was in a gigantic bubble - crash, it was 5,500 billion usd big. The stock market crash is not what ended the Japanese economy! At the time the USA were 7,600 big, so the little island was ~75% the size of the US! They were so advanced, people thought they'd conquer the world with giant robots. They were really ahead of everybody. And then the japanese started to retire, and as they aged demanded more and more support from the youth, more healthcare... tradingeconomics.com Germany and the UK have grown their economies, the UK even got ahead of France which I'm sure has nothing to do with anti-business laws. And Italy has already collapsed (since 2008), their brilliant solution was socialism, the downtrend will last a long while. But the big most noticeable ones are the Americans. Now the USA economy is two and a half times bigger than Germany + France + UK! How could a bunch of rednecks that love to fire guns in the air and mentally unstable drug addicts get this big? Their population has grown unlike the west europeans, but not that much. And they're hitting the wall NOW. A major explanation is their economy got way overheated (which had the secondary effect of creating lots of entitled recently born americans), in part because they attract the smartest migrants and all the foreign investments. NO you can't make people work till they are 80. Past 50 like it or not it's all downhill from here. Here is the productivity chart: Migrants: This is something that Japan has not done. They did not take migrants in, and they also did not (net) import goods to "buy time". West Europe and the United States have bet everything on importing migrants; which seems it might be a very profitable strategy: 0 cost to breed and raise workers, Africa for example has the charge of raising them, and Europe gets them entirely free once they reach working age. The US Department of Agriculture reported that the cost to raise a child born in 2015 to 17 years old would be an estimated $233,610. 10 million migrants = 2,330 billion us dollar saved. And if they are qualified and 25 years you save university and the first years of gaining experience costs. The EU had talks of importing 50 million migrants. At a cost of $200,000 per unit, since these are considered exchangeable pawns the word unit is adequate, that would be $10,000 billion saved! The foreign aid Africa has received for the past 70 years is estimated at around $1,400 billion. Muslim countries that provide many cheap workers obviously do not get anywhere near that amount. And I cannot tell how much money the west spends in anti-African propaganda - working on that negative "poor and violent Africa with no hope" image to push young africans to want to migrate to the west, also know as the second welfare objective (to keep them down and dependant rather than force them to build their own economies), the first one being obvious: "Keep dem kids alive and keep breeding, we want our workers!". The problem is... It is not working perfectly... You see, life is not a video game, and people are not interchangeable pawns. I'm not saying it doesn't or can't work I am just saying it is not working PERFECTLY. The west is facing more and more diversity issues just like Africa and Israel. And this everyone agrees on regardless of their politics, those on the left say it is because of systemic racism, and the other side say it's because people are different I guess. Just as long as we can all agree. Racism or not if you look at Yugoslavia they were the same race, culture, economy, history, and they still killed each other. It is a difficult subject to write about since for some people if you do not say everything will work out great you are automatically an enemy. So how do you even talk about it? You can't. Publicly. Just have to play dumb and act surprised. Ye well I might have to pretend to be stupid but my money won't be acting surprised that I can tell you. I am obviously not going to develop the subject. It may or may not be a viable solution, either was there are obstacles. On the other side of the flying pancake on a giant turtle's back China is facing the same issue. The CCP was surprised to learn the awful demographic numbers a few weeks ago, and started a new 3 child policy as well as fighting feminists. How could they possibly create a 1 child policy and never manage it? Seems unreal. But anyway, now they got a disgusting demographic pyramid, and it will take at best 25 years to fix. China is not looking for migrants to support its aging population. So it would appear they are going to follow Japan? NOPE. See, China has something very special: The USA & West Europe owe China A LOT. Africa owes them too. The world owes them trillions. In theory they could just lay back, relax, and let the world work for them. In practice they might have to use their military to get what is rightfully theirs. But the USA, Germany etc have their own issues and can't really pay up... Will be a big big problem. I am not an expert, I invest in the short term in the currency markets, like every decent "specialist" I know and take an interest in about everything that gravitates around but is not exactly my activity, but I don't really get into it, I stay focus in my area. If you want to know more about the subject, some people of whow the job it is - doesn't necessarily mean they are good at it or know more than me, but they may, at least they have researched the subject extensively - write about the subject. There are articles, "official" reports on the subject, as well as books. An economist that was on the United Kingdom Monetary Policy Committee and an economist that was Managing Director at Morgan Stanley wrote a report available on the website of the Bank of International Settlement, and according to them big money does read what they publish: www.bis.org
Education
by MrRenev
4
21 Largest countries by total tradeA few things I notice: Brazil has all the tools in its hands to, but it does not trade (it's rank 25 to 30). AUD NZD are overrated (overtraded). China way underrated but they are new, they were a tiny economy until recently following their cultural revolution. Canada a bit overtraded but not a big deal. CHF and USD seem overtraded but that's normal, Switzerland has all the banking and all the big trading firms, the US have the world intl currency (for now) and all investors in the world buy US stocks (for now). Hehe Turkey is not even there, I think it trades around 400 billions just like Brazil & Australia. Mexico has a weaker army than Singapore. They're 500,000 btw. ==> No wonder they have drug gangs patrolling the country in trucks with mounted guns and "make examples. Not impossible drug cartel exports > The country exports. Russia is a significant world player because of its army. Russia has some major obstacles to growth. It is rekt by its no access to the world oceans. ==> "Fourteen percent of U.S. counties that are adjacent to the coast produce 45 percent of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP), with over three million jobs (one in 45) directly dependent on the resources of the oceans and Great Lakes.". "One of every 6 jobs in the U.S. is marine-related". "U.S. maritime transport carries 95% of the nation’s foreign trade". "More than 80% of the nation’s economy is supported in coastal states". It's that important. Not a Russia expert (I don't even trade the Rubble) but I think this explains why Russia top 2 exports: 1- Mineral fuels including oil: US$141.3 billion (42.1% of total exports) - sent by pipelines. 2- Gems, precious metals: $30.4 billion (9%) - For very valuable goods higher transport costs aren't that big of a deal. The strong army is strategic, it gives indirect advantages it is not just for conquering. But about the conquering... They have the strongest land force in the world and should they just develop supertrains and anti ice ships or something? Just give up on world waters? Even if the conquer east Europe they'd still be at the same point. They're good at hacking for sure. And Yandex, VK, culture, video games... Historically they are an industrial power right? They are Transitioning towards virtual which you do not need to put on a container ship. Really not an expert as I said but this seems like common sense, and I'm paying attention from afar. They've been bagholding attempts to improve the situation for centuries "never give up never surrender". Either recreate some giant USSR (not going to happen) or cut losses and accept this weakness, develop other things.
Education
by MrRenev
Hash Ribbons buy signal breakdown and verbose explanationThere are two decision branches the indicator may take to trigger a buy signal. I've copied the most relevant lines of code below and added comments. I added a visual representation for every single element that exists in those lines of code. The different indicators I add here have educational purposes only. The original script already does an excellent job presenting the most relevant information. The coloured spring (circles) leading to a buy signal has everything I want to know. Publishing this idea has the main objective of serving as a cheatsheet for myself if I forget all the underlying context later. first buy condition (blue circle and dotted line) price momentum just turned positive, and hash rate growth has recovered after price momentum turned negative and miners capitulated crossover(s10,s20) and // simple moving average checkmark barssince(recovered) < barssince(crossunder(s10,s20)) and // red range on the price chart barssince(recovered) < barssince(capitulation) // red range on the price chart or second buy condition (purple circle and dotted line) price momentum is currently positive, and shorter term hash rate growth is higher than the longer term hash rate growth s10>s20 and // green range on the price chart crossover(HR_short,HR_long) // hash rate growth checkmark
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by yalla-yalla-habibi
1
Macroeconomics 101: inflation, bonds, interest rates, stocksHello fellow traders and dear padawans. The equities market has been hit very hard the past 3 weeks or so, specially growth stocks. I think it is important to address what is happening behind the scenes that caused the selloff in the equities market so that many of you can better understand what is going on. This is a very basic explanation of macroeconomics and by no means thorough but I know that many of my followers would benefit from it at times like these. To establish a common ground I will start with some definitions of terms. I wanted to keep things straight forward so I am getting these definitions from investopedia.com because they did a much better job than I would, defining terms thoroughly yet concisely. Keep in mind these are short definitions of concepts that deserve in-depth study if you want to understand them fully. However, for the purpose of this discussion what follows is enough (you can always read full articles on investopedia.com or somewhere else). If you are well versed on those you can certainly skip ahead (or use this as a refresher). DEFINITIONS Inflation : Inflation is the decline of purchasing power of a given currency over time. A quantitative estimate of the rate at which the decline in purchasing power occurs can be reflected in the increase of an average price level of a basket of selected goods and services in an economy over some period of time. The rise in the general level of prices, often expressed a a percentage means that a unit of currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods. Inflation can be contrasted with deflation, which occurs when the purchasing power of money increases and prices decline. Bonds : A bond is a fixed income instrument that represents a loan made by an investor to a borrower (typically corporate or governmental). A bond could be thought of as an I.O.U. between the lender and borrower that includes the details of the loan and its payments. Bonds are used by companies, municipalities, states, and sovereign governments to finance projects and operations. Owners of bonds are debtholders, or creditors, of the issuer. Bond details include the end date when the principal of the loan is due to be paid to the bond owner and usually includes the terms for variable or fixed interest payments made by the borrower. Treasury Notes : A Treasury note (T-note for short) is a marketable U.S. government debt security with a fixed interest rate and a maturity between one and 10 years. Issued in maturities of two, three, five, seven and 10 years, Treasury notes are extremely popular investments, as there is a large secondary market that adds to their liquidity. Interest payments on the notes are made every six months until maturity. Treasury notes, bonds, and bills are all types of debt obligations issued by the U.S. Treasury. The key difference between them is their length of maturity. For example, a Treasury bond’s maturity exceeds 10 years and goes up to 30 years, making Treasury bonds the longest-dated, sovereign fixed-income security. Federal Fund Rates : The federal funds rate refers to the interest rate that banks charge other banks for lending to them excess cash from their reserve balances on an overnight basis. By law, banks must maintain a reserve equal to a certain percentage of their deposits in an account at a Federal Reserve bank. The amount of money a bank must keep in its Fed account is known as a reserve requirement and is based on a percentage of the bank's total deposits. They are required to maintain non-interest-bearing accounts at Federal Reserve banks to ensure that they will have enough money to cover depositors' withdrawals and other obligations. Any money in their reserve that exceeds the required level is available for lending to other banks that might have a shortfall. Note: although the Federal Fund Rates are charged to banks, banks pass them down to clients' personal/auto/student/mortgage loans and credit card interest rates so these interest rates cascade down to society as a whole. With those out of the way we can start discussing the relationship they have with one another as well as the equities market and understand what is happening with the stock markets. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES In general they have inverse correlation, meaning when one goes up the other goes down. The inverse correlation happens because when interest rates are low people feel encouraged to borrow money, which leads to more spending thus creating more demand of goods and services than supply. When demand is bigger than supply prices will increase to both slow down demand and also (perhaps more importantly) to increase profit margins, which leads to inflation. Because the Fed can manipulate short-term interest rates via the Federal Fund Rates they are able to somewhat control inflation. When interest rates are high the process is inverse to the one described above: people feel discouraged to borrow and spend money; instead they prefer to invest in a fixed income instrument such as high yield savings accounts, CD, or bonds to take advantage of the high yields. It is therefore the job of the Fed to keep inflation and interest rates in balance. Although not everybody agrees, it is understood by economists in general that some inflation is good for economy because it encourages consumers to spend their money and debtors to pay their debt with money that is less valuable than when they borrowed it. Thus some inflation drives economic growth. One of these economists is John Maynard Keynes, who believed that if prices of consumer goods are continuously falling people hold off on their purchases because they think they will get a better deal later on (who doesn't like a good discount?). Another important element that factors into inflation is how much liquidity is injected in the economy (cash, or money supply). More money would translate into more demand and rise in prices. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BOND PRICES, BOND YIELDS (or INTEREST RATES), and INFLATION Bond prices and yields also have an inverse correlation: if the bond certificate price (AKA face value , or what the bond certificate is worth) increases the yield decreases and vice-versa. To make things simple and to better illustrate how bond prices and yields are related the example below uses what is known as ZERO-COUPON BOND, where the yield is derived from the relationship between the coupon payout and the bond face value (back in the day the bond certificate--a piece of paper--had small coupons that investors would rip off and present to the borrower to redeem their yields. That terminology is still used to this day although these coupons are not used anymore). Example: if the bond price is $1,000 and the borrower receives $1,100 back at the end of one year, the so-called coupon rate (the yield paid for each bond certificate throughout the lifetime of the bond) is 10% . So the formula to find the coupon rate is: COUPON RATE = ANNUALIZED COUPON VALUE/BOND FACE VALUE; in this case, 100/1000, or 0.1. That formula helps to understand why the bond price and bond yield (coupon rate) have an inverse correlation. It is important to keep in mind that bond yields reflect genereal interest rates. Like interest rates they can move up or down Like other asset classes such as options, a bond certificate holder can sell that certificate back to the market (known as secondary market). If the current bond yield is lower than when the bond holder "bought" their bond it may be interesting for them to consider selling it because it is now more valuable than when they bought it due to the inverse correlation discussed above. So for bond holders, decrease in interest rates is beneficial. Hopefully it is also clear that a rise in inflation that results in higher interest rates affects bond holders negatively. Who would want to sell a bond that is now less valuable than when they bought it? However, higher bond yields are attractive to new bond investors because it gives them more return for their investment overtime. THE IMPORTANCE OF THE 10-YEAR TREASURY NOTES AND ITS YIELD The government sells Treasury Bills/Notes/Bonds via auction. The yield of bonds is determined by investors' bids. The 10-year-yield's importance goes beyond the rate of return for investors; mortgage interest rates are derived from the 10-year yield for instance. But for the purpose of this text, it is important to understand that the market relies on the 10-year to gauge investors's confidence. Here we see another inverse correlation: if confidence is high, the 10-year yield rises and bond prices drop and vice-versa. Any change in the 10-year yield is closely watched by the markets and has enormous impact in other asset classes. PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER: BOND YIELDS, STIMULUS, EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS, STOCKS, AND THE FED When Treasury bond yields rise bonds become an attractive investment because it is a safer than stocks--specially growth stocks where investors are placing their money on future success as opposed to present profits--since it is backed by the US government and provides fixed returns. While bond investors don't enjoy the big rallies of the stock market they also don't expose their capital to volatility and crashes. With the reopening of the economy in clear sight due to vaccination, and the better than expected job reports investors started fearing higher inflation. That is a simple math: more people making money and out on the streets will boost consumption, which will lead to rise in prices. As explained before, higher inflation causes the Fed to adjustment interest rates, which causes bond prices to fall and yield to rise. Despite what Jerome Powell has said last week--that inflation rise is going to be temporary--investors didn't feel much confidence, which caused the recent sharp rise in the 10-year yield Treasury. With that, bonds became a good alternative to the stock market, causing investors to reallocate some of their capital into bonds. That and the fear caused by falling prices and the media (most of the media fuels panic--one month later everything is green again) resulted in the huge selloff we have seen the past weeks. CONCLUSION Phew, that was a lot. As I wrote on the preface of this text this is an overview of the subject matter so you can always read up on each one of the areas covered here to get more in-depth knowledge. However, I think this provides a good summary of what is going on on the markets right now. Hopefully you will have filled some gaps on your knowledge and will start making more sense of the interrelationship of the many aspects of economy covered here. This is a difficult subject to write about so I apologize if any idea is unclear. I can always clarify anything on the comments. Bottom line: when things are clearer (inflation + interest rates) the markets will most likely stabilize and follow its due course. Growth stocks will continue growing (perhaps at a slower pace) and you will continue making good returns on good companies. I am using this selloff as an opportunity to lower my cost basis and enter positions in stocks that were too expensive before. Sometimes a pullback is all you were looking for even if you lose money in the short term. And hey, one can always buy put options to hedge against their long positions. Good luck and safe trades! ===If you get anything out of this text, please hit the like button and/or follow for updates and new publications.=== ***The ideas shared here are my opinion, not financial advise to place trades. Please do your own research before buying/selling stocks***
FRED:WM2NSEducation
by Safe_Trades
6
What moves exchange rates, and what exchange rates moveHere is a list of what impacts the strength of a currency, as well as the impacts this strength has on the currency country(ies). Things are of course more subtle than a simple excel list binary check. For example, some inflation is not automatically bad, it can be the sign of a country economic growth, and as it gets bad the relationship is not linear, inflation slightly high will not scare many investors and industrials, but when it gets to a really bad high value investors flee at an exponential rate which exacerbates the currency devaluation further. Where the currency goes it is said depends on where "the big boys" want it to go, in particular central banks. Capitalist countries look to increase profits, Communist/socialist countries seem to also like manipulating their currency which they use for propaganda purposes, to increase their control, fulfill their goals, and to increase their competitiveness so they may improve the lives of "the workers". But the "big boys" do not have full control. Ask the BOJ, ask the BOE governor from the early 90s. Here is the example - without getting into the details - of a bad everything horror story (no you can not short it they have capital controls): Another example, after the initial "safe haven" rally of the USD in March 2020 following the stock market crash, the dollar went into a big downtrend against European currencies: And a final example, China, the biggest holder of usdollars, has been selling its bags (public information), and their economy did much better in 2020 than the US one, the price has been unsurprisingly trending for over half a year now:
Education
by MrRenev
3
Value vs Growth: Which strategy is the best?Introduction Hello trading-view! This post aims to find out which trading "technique" is the best; looking for undervaluation or looking for consistent and rapid earnings growth. If you just want an answer skip ahead to the end, but stick with me to get all the information concerning my decision, the advantages and disadvantages each strategy has, as well as a quick summary of both. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Value: core principles Value investors aim for the bigger companies that experience a period of unpopularity among the overall public. The bad news each stock has shouldn't be large enough to permanently damage the reputation of the company, halt it's progress for an extended amount of time, or do any lasting destruction. Metrics such as the PE ratio and the PB ratio can help find these stocks. For example; CFG is a bank stock that had plummeted as a result of the Covid 19 pandemic. It's financial were decent, it was undervalued, and overall a solid investment that has increased 39% since I first noticed it. With a market cap of now 16 billion dollars, it isn't a small company either, and shows just how effective this method of picking stocks can be. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Growth: core principles Growth investors aim for the exact opposite kind of stock as value investors; small companies that are in a period of unusual growth and popularity. Rising earnings and sales are characteristic of such companies, as well as a consistently high PE ratio. One example of a growth stock (that most people should know about at this point) is tesla, the Elon Musk owned EV maker. Since the beginning of 2020 the price of one share has skyrocketed by 850%, a textbook example of a company with strong public support, room to grow, and rising earnings/sales. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Value: Advantages/Disadvantages Advantages 1. Not very risky as long as the issues with the company aren't very big. 2. Value investing mutual funds have, over the long run, beaten out growth stock mutual funds, giving it the historical edge. Disadvantages 1. Returns may take a long time to materialize depending on when a company becomes favored by wall street again. 2. The returns are less the vast majority of the time, since you are aiming to sell at or slightly above true value, while growth investors want to sell very much above the true value. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Growth: Advantages/Disadvantages Advantages 1. The profit potential is greater when growth investing, and extreme spikes to the upside are not unheard of (again, look at tesla and other companies like it). 2. It normally takes less time for profits are realized, although nothing is guaranteed. 3. There certainly isn't a shortage of small companies with room to grow. Disadvantages 1. If your stock falls out of favor, the value of your holdings may fall as well. 2. Growth investors face high risk and can lose money easily on failed start-ups. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Which is the best? Everything depends on you. If you want a *relatively* stable source of income with *relatively* low risk, then you should choose value investing. If you want to be speculative and make more on any one trade, then growth investing is right for you. In the end, there is no one strategy that is the best for everyone; some will like value, and some will prefer growth. Links are down below if you want more in depth explanations of what growth and value investing is, and I will post again soon. Good luck and great trading everyone! *not financial advice.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by NickTheGreatStockTrader
1
Value investing toolkitHello Investors! This educational post is about my toolkit developed for filtering out the almost perfect applicants for further analysis and research in the light of the principals of value investing. The work is based upon Warren Buffett's principals, calculations and recomendations. After publishing my two previous posts on the "Value investing chart set" and the "Intrinsic value calculation" I have received a lots of positive comments and feedbacks. Alongside the encouraging comments I have received quite a lots of requests to share the chart layout and the other scripts I am using while compiling the chart set I have introduced. I have promised to further develope both tools and come up with an even more powerfull toolkit. Now it is here! :-) I have combined the already published Intrinsic value calculation script with the Value investing chart set and further developed both on the way! This setup now is way more powerfull and exciting and is loaded with features as described below. First of all: here is the public link to the shared chart layout setup: www.tradingview.com Which company could be more adequate for the introduction of a value investing toolkit than Berkshire Hathaway, the company of Warren Buffett? It is not just an honor to use this ticker for educational purposes but aparently -as you can see during the analysis- it makes a perfect long term investment! What a surprise, right? :-) Here I will only explain all the new features of this chart as there is a very detailed explanation of both the Intrinsic value calculation script and the Value investing chart set in those two posts. You can find the links for them below. SO! Obviously the biggest developement is poping into your eyes right away: I have programed a value investing analysis tool into the chart so whenever you enter a ticker, the toolkit will supply you with an instant assesment on the given ticker. Of course it is a very basic tool and can only supply you with a preliminary overview on the company and does not, in any way substitute detailed and troughly research before you make any investment decission! - The assessment is based on the principals Warren Buffett, Ben Graham layed down. Some of Peter Lynch's work has been used, too. - The tool is using a rather conservative approach as the main goal is to maintain the capital invested and only additional to that to produce adequate gain on the long run In general: if you see a green labell with the text 'Possible subject for firther research' than you have found a company which passed a conservative test and is worth for further study. Needless to say that if you see a red label with the text 'XX NOT RECOMENDED XX' and a bunch of reasons below, why (overvalued - overpriced - debt risk) do not rush to your broker to put your life savings on it. To give you an example, here is how Google is evaluated today: In order to get the green light a company has to meet the following, rather strict criterias: - Valuation: The current price of the stock has to be below the Intrinsic value. (In this case $224 closing price vs. $426 for the Int. value) This line will precisely tell you how far the price is from the Intrinsic value, in other words, it will tell you your margin of safety when investing to the company on today's price level. In this example it is 90% - Pricing: The close price has to be below the "Buffetts limit price" indicator. To make it short Graham and Buffet stated that the number you get when multiplying the Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio with the Price to book (P/B) ratio has to be below 22.5 in order to consider the given share cheap. This line will tell you how far the price is from the Buffetts limit price. This case it is 61%. ($224 vs. $361) - Debt risk: The company has to have much less debt than equity in order to qualify for long term value investing. The limit here is 1, meaning that the company has to have more equity than total debt. If this is not the case, the company fails the test. (This can be taken a little flexible as certain industries, like banking and insuarance by definition deploy a lots of debt instruments without risking their long term profitability or sustainability) In the example of Bershire this is 0,27 meaning that Berkshire has more than 3 times more equity than debt which is needless to say a more than perfect setup. (What do we expect from Mr. B, right?) These are the first 3 deciding criterias where a company can fail the test. Any of those turn to be out of range, you will get a red labell with a big fat NO recomendation. And most of the time this is going to be the case... As for the other points you will get more inside peek into the state of the company: - Price/book: this line will tell you if the price is still below the 1.5 times book value point. This is the highest price what value investors find comfortable paying. If the P/E value is very low for the share you might run into a situation where the Buffetts limit (P/E times P/B) is still low (below 22,5) but the stock is rather overpriced. You will not get a red labell here, only a 'Caution' warning and a grey label, instead of 'GOOD!' - Earnings: you will get an opinnion on the earnings here. The main criteria to get a 'GOOD!' evaluation is to have a growing level of EPS in the last 5 years. - Revenue: It is very important to invest in a company which is able to grow it's revenues steadily. This line will analyse that and will tell you if it wouldn't be so. - Profit & loss: Although it is not a deciding factor but a value investor should avoid investing to companies that were producing losses in the past decade or so. This line examines the last 5 years in this respect. - Dividend: The one and only point where Berkshire fails the test! :-) As Warren Buffett used to say: I am not paying income tax, Berkshire doesn't pay dividend... :-) Poor guy! Since we are investing for a very long term it is imperative that we top the gains we might have over the years with the 3-4% dividend p.a. As you can see here, there is a Warning! comment should the company fail in paying dividend. - Number of shares: Here you will see a quick analysis on the share buyback habits of the company/management. Again, what we examine here is wether the number of shares outstanding is less than 5 years ago or more which means that the company is buying back it's shares thus help investors to maintain equity. So entering your choosen ticker you should have an instant overview if the company can supply you with the value investing criterias or fails in this field. One very instructive exercise is to click through the leading blue chip stocks with this valuation toolkit and see how hugely overvalued they are at the moment. Some further developements I made in the mean time: - I have automated the calculation of the book value growth with finding the very first data point regardless when it happens. In this way you do not have to enter any parameter and you can simply click conveniently from one ticker to the other without reentering the needed inputs. Hopefully it doesn't matter which pricing structure you are in at TradingView. Free acounts will use 5 years data. - I have included a 4th pane just below the main pane. This shows the revenue of the company in 3 way: the white line is the anual values, the grey line is the quarterly data and I have also added the red line showing the TTM (trailing twelve month) figure in order to visualise the very recent trends in the revenue of the company. - The same way I have added the TTM figure on the lowest pane to the EPS figure, for the same reasons. - I have added explanatory labells to the right of the charts showing the actual value of the indicators, like the Intrinsic value, Buffetts limit, and book value. - Should either the Book value or the EPS figure be negative for the current year the script will issue a red label without any data regardless the other values as the Buffetts limit can not be calculated. (Negative numbers does not have square roots and that is required to calculate the limit price back from the P/E and the P/B values) One final remark: this toolkit is as complete as my knowledge is about value investing. It is a purely educational tool, not in any way intented to be investment advice. I do use this tool and for instance I do have position in this example company Bershire Hathaway at the time of writing this post. You have to make your own research and decision when it comes to investing your money. For further explanation on the Intrinsic value calculation please check my earlier post here: For further explanation on the Value investing chart set please check my earlier post here:
Editors' picks
NYSE:BRK.BEducation
by PeterNagy
108
How to chart financials for any companyThis chart shows some key financial metrics for Netflix. We're using the multi-chart layout feature to show the following financial situation: 1. Netflix Quarterly Revenue 2. Netflix Cash & Equivalents 3. Netflix Total Debt 4. Netflix Forward Price-to-Sales ratio With the financials feature on TradingView, we could chart a lot more than this. Including EPS, R&D, PE ratio, EBITDA, Market cap, and more. We wanted to share this layout with you to demonstrate what's possible. Whether you're a value investor or a short-term trader you can chart the financial situation for a company to better understand the fundamentals that are driving price or telling the story behind a particular asset. For example, Netflix's cash is growing and so is Netflix's revenue. But this chart layout shows that it's not all good news. Netflix has taken on some massive amounts of debt. Debt continues to rise as content becomes more expensive. This post is not investing or trading advice, instead it is educational. As a TradingView member, this data is available to you right now. You can examine the financial situation for Netflix or other companies. To get started, click the Financials button located at the top of your chart. The Financials icon looks like the bar chart 📊 emoji. Once you've opened the Financials menu, you can sort by Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow, and Statistics. You can also use the search field to find specific financial metrics that are relevant to you. Before you head to the comments to leave a positive review with some interesting feedback 😁, we have a few more tips to share: 1. When you open the Financials menu, you can hover your mouse over a Financial metric. To the far right of that metric select either Quarterly or Annual. Quarterly will show you the numbers a company reported every 3 months or quarter and annual will show what a company reported every 12 months or full year. 2. For other financial metrics, when you hover your mouse over them, to the far right you will see a question mark icon appear. You can click this question mark to get a definition for that specific financial metric. So if you ever need to learn something new, it's just one click away. Below we've shared some examples: Price to Sales Ratio Research and Development Basic EPS Free cash flow Enterprise value Thanks for reading and following along. If you have any questions or comments, please write us below. You can also leave feedback or product requests. Our team is listening! 💙
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:NFLXEducation
by TradingView
17
How To Pick The Right Choice For Long-Term Hold??What is the Fundamental Index (FCAS)? FCAS stands for Fundamental Crypto Asset Score. This score comes from examining the basics of a project's business cycle and shows the fundamentals of a digital currency. The principles that are considered for scoring are: User Activity , Developer Behavior and Market Maturity . FCAS ratings are numbers between 0 and 1000. The number 0 is the worst and the number 1000 represents the highest performance of a digital currency. Now let's talk about each parameters of scoring in details: User Activity: User Activity is a comprehensive measure of the behavior of all consumers in a particular project that includes two main factors: Using the project Network activity The advantage of this principle comes from examining all the activities of a particular blockchain, analyzing solutions if necessary (such as ERC-20 smart contracts), and tagging wallet addresses to identify exchanges, projects, contracts, users, and other types of participants. Various statistical and exploratory models are used to tag all active addresses. Network Activity is a comparable estimate based on the above classifications that focuses on the activities of wallets, stakers, miners, users, and investors. The Project Utilization parameter is calculated based on the activity of the wallets run by users (most of which are smart contract transfers and calls). This activity is used in the predefined application of the project. User activity has a great impact on the FCAS score of the project. Developer Behavior: Developer Behavior Behavior is an indicator that shows the level of activity and efficiency of the developers of a project and comes from three factors: Code changes Code improvements Project participation The score of this section is obtained by recording and evaluating source code events in services such as GitHub. There is a slight difference between the obvious criteria of the developer and the activity of the community, so in addition to the commits and pushes sections, other things are examined to get a deeper evaluation of the project. Accordingly, 30 different variables are examined, then generalized to the three factors mentioned above, from which the overall score of developer behavior is obtained. Developer behavior has a major impact on a project's FCAS rating. Market Maturity: Market maturity, which is obtained from the two factors of risk and money supply, indicates the degree of accuracy of a digital currency in the market. The more rational the market reactions to different scenarios and risk factors (factors such as liquidity, price plans, constant algorithmic forecasting and etc...), the higher the probability. Also in this principle, an analysis of the fixed money supply is performed in each of the projects. The more volatile the money supply and the more it is controlled by a small number of addresses, the lower the money supply points. Market maturity has little effect on a project's FCAS rating.
Education
by ArshiaZojaji
2
What is Growth Investing? (Growth Investing tutorial)Introduction: Growth investing is the most, if not one of the most popular trading strategies around. Like value investing, it has a father (Thomas Rowe Price Jr.), and has rewarded many prudent investors with enormous returns. In the next few minutes you will learn: what growth investing is, how you can find a growth stock, and how you can avoid choosing “false growth stocks”. —————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— Why is a growth stock called a growth stock? Growth stocks are stocks whose companies exhibit above average growth compared to other companies in its industry group, hence the name, “growth stock”. While other strategies focus on finding value in a company or momentum in a stock, accelerating profits and sales is the main factor here. Also, high increases in price is a characteristic of these types of stocks, which is another reason they were named what they are. —————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— How do you find a “growth stock”? As I’ve mentioned above, you can find stocks that fit this strategy by seeing if the company has had rising sales and earnings during the past five years. Expected rises in sales and earnings in the next five years is also important (I recommend at least 10% growth year over year in these categories, but 20% and higher is ideal). —————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— Is there a difference between false growth stocks and real growth stocks? Yes, there is a big difference between fake and real growth stocks. You can easily tell the losers from the winners by just looking at the companies balance sheet. If there is a huge amount of debt (most likely from over expansion) then you can cross it off your list immediately. An unsustainably high PE ratio is also common, with possible ratings being 200, 500, and 1000 (these show over enthusiasm in a stock, as well as unrealistic expectations for the company). Fundamental analysis is always required before buying any security for any meaningful period of time (day traders, you are the exception), and growth stocks aren’t excluded from this rule. —————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— Final thoughts: Here are some more details regarding growth investing that may help you achieve higher returns using the strategy: 1. Companies with smaller market capitalizations are ideal, since they have more room to grow and can double, triple, or become a ten bagger* relatively easily. 2. Growth stocks generally have high PE ratios as a result of its high rates of growth, but anything over 100 makes the stock in danger of being overvalued. 3. Dividends are not required in a growth stock, but if you can find one that has consistently given them out for any long period of time, then buy it. The dividend is a way of measuring a companies financial position; if it can pay it, then the company is doing fine. If it suddenly stops paying them, then the company is in deep trouble. In conclusion, I hope that this post gives everyone who reads it a better understanding of growth investing. I myself was taught some new things researching the topic, and am better off for it. Good luck and great trading everyone! (Down below is a link to my value investing post, so if your interested in this one, look it over if you haven’t already) *a ten bagger is lynch lingo for a company that has grown or can grow ten times it’s previous or present price.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by NickTheGreatStockTrader
6