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Observations on Technical Verses Fundamental Analysis:Trend Following and Growth Investing In Technical Analysis (TA), trend following is the equivalent of growth investing in Fundamental Analysis (FA). Further, in TA, mean reversion analysis ("overbought" and "oversold") is the equivalent of valuation ("overvalued" & "undervalued") in FA. In both trend following and growth investing, the focus is on finding the best trends (price in TA, revenues in FA), without regard to "value". Therefore, a trend follower will hold onto a trending stock, regardless of how "overbought" it gets, much like a growth investor will hold onto a growth stock, regardless of how "overvalued" it gets. Conversely, a mean reversion investor will buy stocks that are very "oversold" relative to some anchor, such as the 200-day average or 52-week high, regardless of the direction of the trend, while a value manager will buy stocks that are "undervalued" relative to some anchor, such as earnings or book value, regardless of current fundamental performance. In other words, both mean reversion and value investors are making the case that the trends (price or earnings) have simply gone too far and are unjustified. Understandably, we can see why trend following and mean reversion don't "work" at the same time, just as growth and value don't "work" at the same time. In the end, the line in the sand between TA and FA is ego. A pure TA investor accepts the verdict of the market in terms of what it deems fundamentally "attractive" visa vie the existence of either a positive price trend in a timeframe that is driven by fundamental trends (as opposed to short term trends and noise) or a magnitude of "oversold" momentum that overlaps with historical valuation measures. A FA investor, on the other hand, invests perhaps hundreds of hours developing a personal opinion of what is "attractive", and often finds him/herself at odds with the market's verdict. Since we can never make money until the market agrees with us, we can see then how a more holistic investor who has the wisdom to unite the strengths of trend following with growth investing (or mean reversion with value investing) is better off than those who use only one of those inputs. By leaning on trend, a growth investor will know when the market agrees with his/her painstakingly curated fundamental view, particularly when things are changing, most importantly from good to bad. Behavioral bias may prevent a growth investor from seeing the change in fundamentals that is being depicted by the change in price trend. Indeed, it is in this very moment (former highflying, expensive growth stock that breaks price trend in a meaningful timeframe) when "overbought and overvalued" conditions finally start to matter. David Lundgren, CMT CFA Chief Market Strategist Co-Host "Fill the Gap" podcast Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
AMEX:IWYEducation
by CMT_Association
13
Using BTC Dominance With Current Bitcoin PriceSome people monitor bitcoin price along with bitcoin dominance to help them make trading decisions. Although they are not iron laws, here are some potential outcomes that various combinations of BTC price and dominance may be indicative of. 1. When the price and dominance of BTC are rising, it could signal a potential bitcoin bull market. 2. When the price of BTC is rising but BTC dominance is falling, it could signal a potential altcoin bull market. 3. When the price of BTC is falling but BTC dominance is rising, it could signal a potential altcoin bear market. 4. When the price and dominance of BTC are falling, it could signal a potential bear trend for the entire crypto market. 5. While these two factors do not imply a definite bull or bear market, historical observations suggest a correlation.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DEducation
by yaser_rahmati
1
What Is Market Capitalization? 1. Definition A. For a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin, market capitalization (or market cap) is the total value of all the coins that have been mined. B. It’s calculated by multiplying the number of coins in circulation by the current market price of a single coin. 2. How is it measured? C. Market Cap = Price × Circulating Supply 3. What can you do with market cap? D. Market cap allows you to compare the total value of one cryptocurrency with another so you can make more informed investment decisions. E. Cryptocurrencies are classified by their market cap into three categories (Large-cap , Mid-cap , Small-cap) 4. Large-cap cryptocurrencies F. Including Bitcoin and Ethereum, have a market cap of more than $10 billion. G. Investors consider them to be lower risk investments because they have a demonstrated track-record of growth and often have higher liquidity. H. They can withstand a higher volume of people cashing out without the price being dramatically impacted. 5. Mid-cap cryptocurrencies I. Have market caps between $1 billion and $10 billion. J. They generally are considered to have more untapped potential upside but also higher risk. 6. Small-cap cryptocurrencies K. Have a market cap of less than $1 billion and are most susceptible to dramatic swings based on market sentiment.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALEducation
by yaser_rahmati
THE MOST IMPORTANT FOREX FUNDAMENTALS 📰 Hey traders, Even though I am a pure technician and I rely only on technical analysis when I trade, we can not deny the fact that fundamentals are the main driver of the financial markets. In this post, we will discuss the most important fundamentals that affect forex market. 📍Unemployment rate. Unemployment rate reflects the percentage of people without a job in a selected country or region. Rising unemployment rate usually signifies an unhealthy state of the economy and negatively affects the currency strength. 📍Housing prices. Housing prices reflect people's demand for housing. Rising rate reflects a healthy state of the economy, strengthening purchasing power of the individuals and their confidence in the future. Growing demand for housing is considered to be one of the most important drivers in the economy. 📍Inflation. Inflation reflects the purchasing power of a currency. It is usually measured by evaluation of the price of the selected basket of goods or services over some period. High inflation is usually the primary indicator of the weakness of the currency and the unhealthy state of the economy. 📍Monetary policy. Monetary policy is the actions of central banks related to money supply in the economy. There are two main levers: interests rates and bank reserve requirements. Higher interest rates suppress the economy, making the currency stronger. Lower interests rates increase the money supply, making the economy grow but devaluing the national currency. 📍Political discourse. Political discourse is the social, economical and geopolitical policies of the national government. Political ideology determines the set of priorities for the ruling party that directly impacts the state of the economy. 📍Payrolls and earnings. Payroll reports reflect the dynamic of the creation of new jobs by the economy, while average earnings show the increase or decrease of the earnings of the individuals. Growing earnings and payrolls positively affect the value of a national currency and signify the expansion of the economy. Pay closes attention to these fundamentals and monitor how the market reacts to that data. What fundamentals do you consider to be the most important? ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Education
by VasilyTrader
5
How to Invest in the S&P 500 [FOR DUMMIES]In the investment world everybody expects you to know exactly how to buy into an Index Fund, which makes it very hard to find a good detailed non-outdated resource to learn from. While it’s easy to do once your set up, learning how to from nothing was difficult (at least for me). Before you even think about investing into the S&P 500 you need to know WHY. Because if you don't know WHY your investing into this you will panic sell when its the best time to be buying. Now while this part can be answered by a YouTube video I put some of the main reasons below. - The s&p 500 is a diverse Index Fund. (The term index fund means a portfolio set up for you to invest in.) - The s&p 500 holds the top 500 USA companies. (The diversity in big companies makes it a safe investment in the long term.) - The s&p 500, over a 15-year period, beat nearly 90% of actively managed investment funds. (Meaning us noobies can beat the pros!) - The S&P 500 has always recovered, there are lost decades which the market has stayed down for 10 years but in those 10 years you could be buying every single month! (Dollar Cost Averaging) - With the power of compounding your money will grow exponentially. Now what is Dollar Cost Averaging..? Dollar Cost Averaging is buying roughly equal amounts of an asset per month. Doesn't have to be equal but nothing to different, for example you don't want to buy $500 worth's one month and $1000 worth's another (only spend what you know you can be consistent with in the future). Dollar-cost averaging is a great investing strategy because, in the long term, it can protect the investor (you) from market volatility (up and down movement) and reduce the amount you'll spend buying shares. So, over time, you will end up investing in more assets for less. Now what is compounding..? Compounding is re-investing both your capital gains and dividends in order to get a higher payout the next time around again and again and again.. till your rich. Although with compounding comes a catch; if you panic sell before your desired target you've fell into your own trap, because compounding depends on time, and you just smashed the watch. Plus, you should never panic sell when the market crashes; be happy you’re getting everything on a sale! Now we have reviewed why you should invest into the S&P 500, what dollar cost averaging is, what compounding is, and why panic selling is stupid. But how do you buy it?!? I started by trying a brokerage called Vanguard. (a brokerage company is pretty much a middleman that connects buyers and sellers). I wanted to use Vanguard because I knew that I wanted low purchase fees; low purchase fees are good because in the long term it impacts how much you’re actually investing (less fees = more invested long term). Now let me tell you this, vanguard SUCKS, their customer service is terrible, the website is terrible, and they wouldn't even let me open an account for god’s sake because "their website was down". The only thing good about them is their index funds and low fees. What took me a while to learn was that I can purchase the SAME index funds but with a different broker. Now I do recommend you get an account with Charles Schwab they have real branches you can go to and ask questions in (not just a phone number like Vanguard) plus if you do want to call their wait time isn't over an hour like Vanguard, and their website is user friendly. How to make an account with Charles Schwab..? Search up "Charles Schwab", click on their website, Open an Account, and decide what type of brokerage account you want (if your just one person pick individual), then continue with the steps. If you’re below the age of 18 search up "create a custodial account Charles Schwab" and start from there, you will need your parents SSN, and other info. Now that you have a basic account set up your ready to invest; but wait there's more. You currently have a brokerage account which means your eligible to invest however much you want per year, although once you pull the money out you will be taxed on it based off your tax bracket. Along with your brokerage account you should set up a Roth IRA account. A Roth IRA account is a retirement account in short, your allowed to invest up to $6000 per year into it and once your 50 you can pull it out TAX FREE. (if you pull it out any sooner it will act as a brokerage account and tax you, so don't do that). Making a Roth IRA account requires paperwork which you fill in and then go to one of the many "Charles Schwab Branches" to turn in. You can ask customer support to send you the paperwork to your email which you must print out. This account pretty much assures you will be a millionaire at retirement. Ok I have both accounts.. now how to buy? Click on "trade", make sure you’re on the "Stocks & ETFs" Tab, click the "symbol search bar", and type "VOO" (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF). Now decide on how many shares you want (you can check the price here on trading view). It will have an option to turn on auto-reinvest dividends make sure to click that, & make sure you select "Market Order" so you get filled in immediately then click "order". Always invest the maximum of 6K into your Roth IRA and invest as much as you can into your brokerage account. Every 3 months re-invest your capital gains on both accounts. You can see how much your projected to earn in the future. Search up "compounding calculator" put in how much you’re going to be investing per month, how long, and at a 10% average rate of return. I hope this helps, comment and like. :)
AMEX:VOOEducation
by pastworks
3
HOW TO use asymmetric compounding 🧐📈The pair in question and four winning trades allows me to cover a subject I've wanted to touch on. That subject is asymmetric compounding. Asymmetric compounding is a money management strategy that can accelerate the equity curve of an account. But you need the right strategy and data available to back up using asymmetric compounding. Higher the win rate the more asymmetric will work wonders on that equity curve. In simple terms asymmetric compounding is best suited to strategies with higher win rates as you need consecutive wins to make it work. The main reason for using this NZDUSD chart is the four winners in a row make it easier to explain the concept of asymmetric compounding. You traders should know the full ins and outs of your own strategies and if this can be applied. It's not just win rate also RR along with max losing and max winning runs need to be factored in. For this example on the four winning trades I am explaining the concept basing it on risking 2% per trade on the initial trade. As this strategy is a 1:2 risk reward strategy risking 2% sees us gain a profit of 4% on one winning trade. This is where you can then use asymmetric compounding on your next trade. Instead of risking 2% again you now risk the 4% gained from the previous trade on this trade. If the trade goes on to win the 4% risked on that trade has just earned 8% in profit. At this point you go back to risking 2% on the next trade until you have a win and then risk the 4% gain from that winning trade. The chart shows four winning trades at 1:2 RR so lets test the concept in numbers. If we was to risk 2% per trade on a £1000 starting capital account the results are as followed. Trade one 2% risked 4% gained= £1040 capital. Trade two 2% risked 4% gained= £1081.60 capital Trade three 2% risked 4% gained= £1124.86 capital Trade four 2% risked 4% gained= £1169.85 capital Now if we apply asymmetric compounding to the same trade sequence staring back at original 2% risk after two winning trades Trade one 2% risked 4% gained= £1040 capital. Trade two 4% risked 8% gained= £1123.20 capital Trade three 2% risked 4% gained= £1168.13 capital Trade four 4% risked 8% gained= £1261.58 capital Using asymmetric compounding on these four trades see a capital increase of £91.73 more than just risking a flat 2%. Below is an example of using a 1:1 RR strategy risking 1% per trade. If trade is a winner then risk 2% on the next trade which is the profit and the risk from the previous trade. # If that trade wins go back to the intial 1% risk then risk 2% again if that trade wins. This is a great concept to grow small accounts or even pass funded challenges as with the trades shown on the idea chart you would pass most prop firm challenges in two trades using asymmetric compounding. However I can't stress enough you as the trader need to know you own risk appetite for this. You also need to factor in how good your win rates and how often your strategy has seen winning runs that would benefit this concept. One way to found out is to back test and forward test your strategy to see how asymmetric compounding could work for you. Thanks for taking time out your day to read over my idea. Ill see you on the next one 👍 Darren
Education
by pow_removetheguesswork
80/20 P2How often have you heard “90% of traders fail while only about 10% make consistent money”? Often, I am willing to bet. Whilst the exact ratio of traders who make money vs. those who lose money is obviously almost impossible to pinpoint, it probably is somewhere between 80/20 and 95/5. Have you ever thought to yourself “why is trading apparently so difficult that 80 or 90% of people fail at it?” I’m willing to bet you have, and here is my answer to this pervasive question: Trading is the ultimate “less is more” profession, but it’s also extremely difficult for most people to accepting the following: 80% of trading should be simple and almost effortless, 20% is more difficult 80% of profits come from 20% of trades 80% of the time the market is not worth trading, 20% it is 80% of the time you should not be in a trade, 20% you can be 80% of trades should be on the daily chart time frame, 20% can be other time frames 80% of trading success is a direct result of trading psychology and money management, 20% is from strategy / system 80% Simple, 20% Difficult This one is easy. Most of what we do as traders is sit in front of our computers and look at prices going up or down or sideways. This is not by anyone’s standards “hard” to do. The point is this; determining market direction and finding trades is not hard, people make it hard. The difficult part of trading is controlling yourself via not over-trading, not risking too much per trade, not jumping back into the market on emotion after a big win or a loss, etc. In short, controlling your own behaviour and mindset, as well as properly managing your money are the hardest parts of trading, and traders tend to spend less of their time & focus on these more difficult aspects of trading, probably about 20%, when they should be spending about 80% of their time on them. 80% of profits come from 20% of trades It’s absolutely true that most trading profits come from a small percentage of trades. for example if you keep your losing trades contained below a certain 1R dollar value that you are comfortable with, and you see what you consider an “obvious” price action signal with a lot of confluence behind it, You will go in strong or add to the initial position and make a nice chunk of change on the trade if the trade goes in your favour. The winning trades are typically double or triple the 1R risk you give up on any of losing trade. This way, even if you lose more trades than you win, You can still make a very nice return at year’s end. 80% of the time the market is not worth trading, 20% it is Do you see the connection between the fact that most traders lose money (around 80%) and about the same amount of time the market is really not worth trading? Markets chop around a lot, and a lot of the time the price action is simply meaningless. As a price action trader, your job is to analyze the price action and have the discipline to not trade during the choppy (meaningless) price action and wait for the 20% or so market conditions that are worth trading. This point is the most important: The main thing that separates the professionals from the amateurs in this business is patience and not over-trading. Traders tend to negate their trading edge by trading during the 80% of the time when the market is not worth trading. Instead of waiting for the 20% of the time when it is worth trading, they simply trade 80% to 100% of the time with very little discretion or self-control, like a drunk guy at a casino. Don’t let this be you, remember the 80/20 rule ESPECIALLY as it pertains to trading vs. not trading. If you think you are trading about 80% of the time, you need to evaluate your trading habits and make it more in-line with trading only 20% of the time and 80% of the time should be spent observing and keeping your hands in your pockets (not trading). 80% daily chart trades, 20% other time frames The daily chart time frame chart supposedly is the “weapon of choice” as far as chart time frames are concerned. I would say it’s pretty accurate and won’t get into all the reasons why the daily chart to be specific as I do love my good'ol 15m/1h /4h charts, however it is worth pointing out that there is also a direct connection between the fact that most traders get caught up trading lower time frame charts and lose money. This fits well with the 80/20 rule in that probably only about 20% of traders really focus on higher time frame charts like the daily chart and somewhere around 20% to 10% of traders actually make consistent money. People tend to be drawn to the “play by play” action on the lower time frame charts, almost like they are mesmerized by the moving numbers and flashing colours…unfortunately, this turns into somewhat of a trading addiction for many traders, that quickly destroys their trading accounts. 80% of trading success is psychology and money management, 20% is strategy In the previous idea I wrote a mini case study of random entry and risk reward, I showed how it is possible to make money simply through the power of money management and risk reward. To be clear, I was not and am not saying that you can make a full-time living as a trader without an effective trading strategy. I am simply saying that money management and controlling your mindset is far more important than finding some “perfect, Holy-Grail” trading system that simply does not exist. You should be focusing about 80% of your trading efforts on money management and controlling yourself / being disciplined (psychology), and about 20% on actually analyzing the charts and trading. If you do this consistently, I can guarantee you that you will see a very positive change to your trading. Using an effective trading method that is also easy to understand and implement will give you the mental clarity and time to focus 80% on money management and discipline whilst only needing about 20% of your mental energy for analyzing the markets and finding trades. A lot of traders never even get to this point because they are still trying to figure out how the heck to make sense of their trading system. The implication here is that you can eliminate about 80% of your losses and be profitable come end of year of being consistent. The first step to trading with an ‘80/20 mindset’ is to master a simple trading strategy like a price action strategy . As I said earlier, if you do this it will give you the foundation you need to focus more of your time on the real “money makers” in trading, which are money management and your own mental state. Thus, the 80/20 rule in trading is best applied by combining a simple trading strategy and a strong focus on money management and psychology, the synergy of this combination is a very potent force for making money in the market. Rob Booker has a great well rounded video on Youtube on the topic also just search: THE 80/20 RULE FOR TRADERS (15:25) BINANCE:BTCUSD 👍
Education
by AdamsLibrary
1
Fundamental and statistical analysis method - ExplainedHi All, I have been asked by few in comments and personally to post fundamental analysis of few other companies in similar way as that of FB and PYPL (as per linked ideas). Since, I will not be able to take all the requests, I thought I will make a video explaining how to do it yourself :) ⬜ Following things are discussed in the video 🎲 Earnings Not significant unless the gap is too much. Things to look for are: If the recent earnings and revenue has met expectation/estimation If the next earning/revenue estimates are higher/lower than current one. Cyclical nature of quarterly earnings - check results and estimations of last two years of same quarter 🎲 Quality Can use open source script Quality-Screen from community library. Color coded based on standards and very generic method. May also need to consider that some of these stats may be industry and sector based and may require comparison among similar stocks. Overall - if green/lime good, if lots of red/orange - bad. Silver - in between. 🎲 Relative Growth Can use open source script Relative-Growth-Screen from community library. Applies Bollinger bands/ Keltener channel to define whether they are relatively high or low. Can also use RSI - but, have not tried :) Measures growth over past few years. 🎲 Drawdown from ATH Price drawdown from ATH and historical drawdown levels. Can use open source script Drawdown-Range from community library. Tells what is the current price drawdown from ATH. Provides details on historical drawdown levels and ranges. 🎲 Drawdown comparison - price vs fundamentals Percentile-Price-vs-Fundamentals is the utility I built to carry out the comparison. I am not sure if there are any other comparable tools. Tool is useful for comparing if price drawdown is justified with the drop of fundamentals or if this is an overreaction. ⬜ Please note ▶ News events and probability of future potentials are not taken into consideration. Objective here is to work solely based on the readily available stats. ▶ It is unreliable use this method for short term trading as we cannot be sure when the things going to price in or if they have already priced in. ▶ Not a financial advise. Just an idea based on the research I have done so far. Constructive criticism welcome. Happy to learn from others.
NYSE:BRK.BEducation
by Trendoscope
all The Things you Need To know About Web 3.0 🟡In This Article we want to talk about Web3 and It's Effects on The Internet,Conncetion To Metaverse,Cryptocurrencies and Great Projects With Awesome Potentials First, there was web1 – aka the internet we all know and love. Then there was web2 – the user-generated web, heralded by the arrival of social media. Now, wherever we look, people are talking about web3 (or sometimes, web 3.0) – the supposed next big evolutionary leap forward of the internet. But what is it, exactly? Well, opinions on this differ somewhat. Web3 is currently a work-in-progress and isn’t exactly defined yet. However, the main principle is that it will be decentralized – rather than controlled by governments and corporations, as is the case with today’s internet – and, to some extent, connected to the concept of the “metaverse." Before we start – just to avoid confusion – it’s worth mentioning that, until a few years ago, the term “web 3.0” was frequently used to describe what is now known as the “semantic web." This was a concept put forward by the original "father of the internet," Sir Tim Berners-Lee, for a machine-to-machine internet. Language is defined by its use, and the term is more frequently used to describe something else now. However, Berners-Lee’s concepts are considered to be a part of what we now call web3, although not the entirety of it. 🟢What is the decentralized web? Let’s look at decentralization first. Today, all of the infrastructure that the popular sites and hangouts we spend time on online are usually owned by corporations and, to some extent, controlled by regulations set out by governments. This is because this was the simplest way to build network infrastructure – someone pays to install servers and set up software on them that people want to access online, and then either charges us to use it or lets us use it for free, as long as we abide by their rules. Today, we have other options, and in particular, we have blockchain technology. Blockchain is a relatively new method of storing data online, which is built around the two core concepts of encryption and distributed computing. Encryption means that the data stored on a blockchain can only be accessed by people who have permission to do so – even if the data happens to be stored on a computer belonging to someone else, like a government or a corporation. And distributed computing means that the file is shared across many computers or servers. If one particular copy of it does not match all of the other copies, then the data in that file isn’t valid. This adds another layer of protection, meaning no one person other than whoever is in control of the data can access or change it without the permission of either the person who owns it or the entire distributed network. Put together, these concepts mean data can be stored in a way so that it is only ever under the control of the person who owns it, even if it happens to be stored on a server owned by a corporation or subject to the control of a local government. The owner or government can never access or change the data without the keys to the encryption that proves they own it. And even if they shut down or remove their server, the data is still accessible on one of the hundreds of other computers that it’s stored on. Pretty clever, right? Other important concepts that are often used in relation to the technical infrastructure of web3 are that it is open, meaning largely built on open-source software, trustless and permissionless. Trustless means that interactions and transactions can take place between two parties without the need for a trusted third party. This was not necessarily the case on web2 or below because you would have to be certain that whoever owned the medium you were using to interact or transact was not manipulating your communications. A good example of a web3 trustless transaction would be sending Bitcoin directly to another person – not via an online exchange or wallet stored on a centralized server. The entire process of making the transaction is controlled by the blockchain algorithm and encryption, and there is close to zero chance that anyone can step in and disrupt it. Similarly, "permissionless" means that neither party in a transaction or interaction have to seek permission from a third party (such as a service provider or government) before it can take place. By the way, if you think all this talk about avoiding government interference sounds a little bit anarchistic or libertarian, then you’re not alone! There are still big questions to be answered about the implications that this lack of oversight or control has for safety and legality. We’ve already seen governments attempt to create legislation that will allow them to retain some level of control over communications and interactions on the web3. This includes the UK Government’s indications that it would like to regulate citizens' ability to send end-to-end encrypted messages. 🔵Web3 concepts – the DAO The Decentralised Autonomous Organisation (DAO) is a web3 concept describing a group, company or collective that are bound by rules and regulations coded into a blockchain. For example, in a DAO-based shop, the price of all of the items, as well as details on who would get pay-outs from the business, would be held on a blockchain. Shareholders in the DAO would be able to vote to change prices or who gets the money. However, no individual could change the rules without having permission to do so. And no one who owned the physical infrastructure, such as the server owners, or the owners of the facilities where the profits were stored, could interfere in any way, like running off with the takings! Crucially, DAOs - in theory - eliminate the need entirely for many of the “men-in-the-middle” needed to run an organization – such as bankers, lawyers, accountants, and landlords. 🔴Artificial intelligence (AI) and web 3.0 Most people believe that AI will play a big part in web3. This is due to the heavy involvement of machine-to-machine communication and decision-making that will be needed to run many web3 applications. 🟢How does the metaverse fit with web3? The last important concept of web3 that we have to cover is the metaverse. In relation to web3, the term “metaverse” covers the next iteration of the internet’s front-end – the user interface through which we interact with the online world, communicate with other users, and manipulate data. Just in case you’ve missed all the hype – the idea of the metaverse is that it will be a much more immersive, social and persistent version of the internet which we all know and love. It will use technologies like virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) to draw us in, enabling us to interact with the digital domain in more natural and immersive ways – for example, by using virtual hands to pick up and manipulate objects, and our voices to give instructions to machines, or talk to other people. In many ways, the metaverse can be thought of as the interface through which humans will engage with web3 tools and applications. It’s possible to create web3 applications without the metaverse being involved – Bitcoin is one example – but it’s thought that metaverse technology and experiences will play a big part in the way many of these applications will interact with our lives. ⚪This all sounds great, and everyone must love it, right? Well, actually, no. It should be mentioned that there has been a fair amount of high-profile criticism of web3. Elon Musk has made several comments, including stating that it “seems more like a marketing buzzword than a reality right now" and tweeting, “Has anyone seen web3? I can’t find it.” Former Twitter CEO, Jack Dorsey, on the other hand, has questioned whether it will be as free and open as many hope. He said, "You don't own web3. The VCs and their LPs do. It will never escape their incentives. It’s ultimately a centralized entity with a different label.” Others don’t like many of the current proposals for web3 due to the fact that they are built on blockchain, which can sometimes be very energy-intensive, contributing to carbon emissions and climate change. The Bitcoin blockchain, for example, is estimated to consume around the same amount of energy as Finland. Other blockchains – such as those that are built on proof-of-stake algorithms rather than proof-of-work, are not as energy-intensive. 🟡Some of The Great Web 3 Crypto Projects are: DOT LINK THETA FIL BTT BAT AUDIO and Many other Cool Projects! ................................................................................ Thank you for seeing idea . Have a nice day and Good luck
Education
by CobraVanguard
21
Enhanced Magic Formula for fundamental analysisThis is an experimental procedure based on fundamentals. Since, there isn't much option to backtest these methodologies, I am trying to create a trade and then measure performance over long period of time. Magic Formula investing method is invented by Joel Greenblatt . In a nutshell strategy does following: Rank all the stocks based on Return on Capital Rank all the stocks based on Earning Yield Add these ranks to come up with a combined rank. Invest equally in first 10 stoscks of combined. Rebalance yearly. Concept here is, earnings yield represents value whereas return on capital represents quality. Combining these two to get the stocks which have best of both. More information on the methodology is present here: www.investopedia.com Improved Method : Since, tradingview does not allow comparing fundamentals or technicals of all stocks, I had to do this in python. Output report can be found here: docs.google.com Basic Filtering of Stocks: Basic filtering of stocks is done based on the methods as mentioned in quality screen indicator: Since the financial data is taken from yahoo for generating report, some of the quality parameters are not included and there can be slight changes in the fundamental values present in tradingview. No other initial filtering is applied. Derive ranks on several Value, Profitability, Growth and Cashflow parameters: Value Parameters : P/E, P/S, P/B, P/C, P/FCF, PE-Forwarding, PEG Ratio Profitability Parameters : ROA, ROE, ROI, GrossMargin, OperatingMargin, ProfitMargin Growth and Momentum Parameters : Quarterly, Half Yearly and Yearly Performance, Upside Calculated from analyst valuation Cashflow Parameters : Quick Ratio, Current Ratio, Debt to Equity, Long term Debt to Equity, Debt to Assets, Long term debt to assets. Derive composite rank for Value, Profitability, Growth and Cashflow based on individual ranks: For example, Add up all ranks of value parameter to come up with Value Score. And then sort value score in ascending order to get value rank Derive combination ranks such as value/growth rank, value/profitability rank etc by similar method: Also create combined rank which considers all 4 ranks - value, profitability, growth and cashflow. Sort the values based on combined rank to get top value/quality stocks - which represents lowest score. Final stock selection consideration : Instead of picking first 10 stocks, I have picked stocks from different sectors thus sacrificing bit of Magic Formula edge. This is to avoid high concentration on single sector. Final list of stocks selected: SBSW - Basic Materials (Gold) VALE - Basic Materials (Industrial Metals and Mining) GOOG - Communication Services (Internet and Information) CROX - Consumer Cyclical (Footwear and Accessories) ENVA - Financial (Credit Services) EVR - Financial (Capital Markets) UTHR - Healthcare (Biotechnology) LPX - Industrial (Building Products and Equipment) TER - Technology (Semicondoctor Equipment & Materials) AMAT - Technology (Semicondoctor Equipment & Materials)
NYSE:SBSWEducation
by Trendoscope
7
Plotting bitcoin and doge supplyTrading view calculates the market cap for bitcoin and doge. I don't know how the market cap is precisely calculated by them. However, for the sake of exploration, I'm going to assume it is simply taking the available supply and multiplying it by the price of one coin. From there, we can use arithmetic to plot the total supply. market cap = supply * price supply = market cap / price That is the line plotted in the indicators underneath each chart. It tracks coins supply denominated in millions, 18.7M bitcoin and 129,427.06M doge. What we see for the bitcoin chart makes a lot of sense. Supply is growing steadily and linearly. Every day about 900 bitcoins are mined (6.25 every 10 minutes approx.). The graph shows that consistent growth at an almost precise 45-degree angle. What we see for the doge chart is puzzling. Every day about 14,400,000 doge coins are mined (10,000 every minute approx.). The daily minting rate is fixed just as with bitcoin. So, I would have expected a similar plot with linear growth. Instead, for the most part, the graph is relatively flat. And for the past 25 days, it is entirely flat. To my surprise, the last value does match with what coinmarketcap reports as the supply: 129.53B What am I missing here?
Education
by givanse
[Advanced] How to aggressively grow a small (10k) account?Most of the time growing an account is a very slow grind. Make some, lose some, hope to make a little bit more than you lose. For example, with an average risk to reward of 1 to 5, and a win ratio of 21% (not counting once a year outliers), which is pretty good, breakeven being at 16.67%, after 100 trades the result will be - with a risk of 1% (flat) each time: - Profits = 21*5 = 105% - Loses = 78*1 = - 79% Net result = 26% Finding 100 good trades might take more than 1 year. With a theoritical compounding of 1% each trade the max profit would be: - Net = (1.05)^21 * (0.99)^79 = 25.94% Compounding is not always the magic trick. You might be looking at something like 20% a year. But once in a while, often in September-October, and sometimes at specific times such as March-April 2020, we get these monsters that go way further than usual. Often from a boring tight period, an explosion that grows exponentially, this pushes the reward dramatically. So we can end with a few winners at 10, 15R, rather than the usual ~5. So you can "easily" get the regular barely above breakeven 20% (for the example) with on top of that an occasional 10, 20, or even more, percent. On our small accounts these extras feel good, and they give a nice boost, but nothing dramatic. Growing a 10k account into 100k even with 50% a year will take 6 years. With 30% a year that would take 9 years. With 20% a year, 13 years. An experienced but poor investor, that spent years working on entries, exits, and so on, will need do something rather "dramatic" to grow his account. Doesn't have to be a complete gamble. An idea is after one of these "boost" periods, the investor could put all of that profit at risk. Say he made 32%, losing it all would be a major drawdown of 25%, but if the investor sees it as extra it is not the same as a crippling drawdown. Having a great period is nice (within years of moderate consistency), but it is not life changing. It might be a good idea to use that as some sort of springboard (or launchpad): - Losing that profit is a return to last step it is disapointing and the grind continues but even with an extra 30% the grind would still continue it wasn't going to be life changing. Maybe 6 months - 1 year worth of profit lost (but it was "extra" anyway). - Not losing it all (winning or even a period of breakeven) is great because it will allow the account to leap up suddenly, you quickly end up years ahead. So how does this work? Going to use an example. The investor gets 100 trades a year because why not (that's 2 a week or a little over 8 a month), has a reward 5 times the risk and a winrate of 21% (PF = 1.33). Account size = $10,000. Risk per trade = $100. The investor was able to grow 4000 into 10,000 over 4 years "slowly" (not that slow) but surely. The biggest drawdown ever was 20%. The yearly return is 26%. Over September to November he made $4000. He would "normally" make $1000 over 3 active months like this, but as is often the case, that period was violent with fear moves, winners just kept going and our investor that was able to add early ended up with 2 winners at 9+7 R each. So 32R. It can go very fast. 32%, on top of 8% on other grindy trades (over 3 months). Trying to catch whole trends and hold forever in my opinion is not realistic, but adding once or twice to winners is (talking about FX here), and winners (especially in March 2020 or September-October) going vertical does happen. So now how does the 10K investor scale up? Well $100 was 1%. 1% of 14,000 would be $140. but how about he more than doubles the risk?! So investor's profit in Sept-Nov was $4000 ("regular" $800 + "extra" $3200) and he/she decides to put it all at risk. He pushes the risk up to $280 which is now 2% of the new account size. After 12 loss in a row (down 3360) all the "extra" will be gone with only $640 profit left, the risk will then be reduced progressively, first down to 200 and if losses continue, 150 and finally back to 100. To attempt this our investor must have several years of results. From these years, taking out the handful of outliers, we know average RR & WR. The important question is what are the odds of 12 losses in a row? (With 21% WR) ==> First the probability of 12 losses in a row (if it was a random coinflip) are 6%. The odds are rather low. ==> Second the odds of exactly 11 losses out of 12 are 19%. In that case investor lost 1680/3360 -> Half. Still 6 lives left. ==> Once investor has 6 lives left the odds of losing all 6 times are 24%. Risking 280 rather than 140 means in 1 year rather than grow by 3640 (26%) the account will grow by 7280 (52%). Basically fast forward 1 year. In a way this is risking 1 year of profits to make 2. With something like 80% odds of making it. Aiming for much less than 12 lives is really gambling. An investor could also go for 20 or more lives but the higher the number the slower the grind. With 6 lives there is 1 chance in 4 to lose it all. But it would be a $560 risk, a huge increase from $100. Is there really a need to increase size by that much at once? It would not even accelerate growth that much. Our little investor can always make another jump after that first one. Because yes, that snowball can keep getting bigger. It is a terrible idea to keep going double or nothing, eventually it will be nothing, but we could find a compromise between being very careful and careless. We might not accept a 30% drawdown, or losing 3 years of very difficult very slow profit but if we can separate that say slow grindy 15% a year and go "I won't risk this" but the once a year or two monsters that provide 20%-40% at once (arbitrary numbers) we can see it as "extra", we got our account with 10k in in and the 4000 we just made well losing the 4000 technically would be a 30% drawdown on 14k but we can perhaps separate this, it was unexpected, and we put all of this capital at risk, without hurting our "main" capital. Might be a great way to boost growth without risking to blow up or being set back years. And if it works out. As I said the example investor (which is already at least in the top 5% by the way) made 7280 rather than 3640. An extra $3640. Actually since his account was $10,000 and he was supposed to make about 3600 in 1.25 year, but instead made 7280 + 4000 = 11,280, well that's an extra of about $7500. Last time investor risked 3400/4000 in 12 trades (6% odds of losing all 12 and perhaps ~15% odds of losing all that money over a longer time), maybe this time investor wants to risk 6000/7500 in 12 trades ($500 each!). 26R = $13,000. If it works out in 2 years investor's account went from $10,000 to $34,000 rather than $16,000. $24,000 profit rather than $6000 (or $10000 with the big winners). With what? 1 in 4 odds of only making 6000? It is still going to take years anyway, but it is possible to take ponctual big risks to try and jump up a few steps, without playing russian roulette either. Another quick example... I think this example is within the good compromise area. It would be possible to go "I will risk $1200 over the next 3 ($400 each)" but just 3 trades that gets rather random so it becomes gambling. Over several years risking "1200" (12% base account) over the next 3, well the randomness would even out but seems bad, better to have some sort of certainty. 4% and 6% odds to immediately fail means 94/96% odds of success, unless really bad luck that should rarely happen, this should work. Just not with rent money. And even if it fails the "base account" is still here, simply some unexpected profit evaporated. If it fails, can always re-try next time, after another while of grinding, making sure we are still actually profitable and it was just bad luck. On top of this whole concept of putting profit at risk for a boost, there are the very rare "generational" trades (George Soros versus BoE 1992), where risk is known to be limited (so no swiss tsunami), the odds are really high (way more than 21%), and the reward will be even better than 5R. Also more generally when having a great winning period, great conditions, but I would not trust anyone to be objective about that. Our eager investor that made 4000 could out 3000 at risk over 12 trades with $250 each, and leave the remaining 1000 for the "great ones" where maybe $300 can be risked at once (and if it works out a one time 1500-3000 boost), 300 being "only" 2% of 14000 so it's still fine, not completely crazy (we are talking about a serious investor that has been doing well for a few years not a retail day trader with a gambling addiction). Just like with trade selection strategies, there is no secret magic trick. This scaling strategy is honestly the best I can do. Maybe 1 last example... And finally, this can be tweaked. Rather than rambo the risk from $100 to $280 in the example I choose, still putting all or most of the 4000 at risk, an investor could first increase the risk to $190 (takes 20 losses to lose most of the 4000 rather than 12), and if that goes well, which if it's a profitable investor is more likely than not, then once at +5R (+$950) or so investor could then increase it $280 which overall is safer, and much more likely to work out. With $280 from the start 5R would be 1400 so investor left 450 on the table, not that big of a deal. From that point the next 12 will have a 280 risk, if unlucky then there is still profits left and we can drop to 190 before returning to only 100 which hopefully won't be the case, at least most of the time. Then stay at 280 a while (if it works out) and next time big profits appear, risk that + a part of the 4000, without touching the rest of the profit made in the meantime. Risking profits is really not the same as risking the "bulk" or "base" capital, that's a slippery slope... Rule number 1 = protect your capital Rule number 2 = do not lose money
Education
by MrRenev
99
How To Use Sparks To Kickstart Your ResearchThis video was created by our team to introduce you to the new Sparks tool. Sparks are curated lists to help kickstart your research process. You can find lists of symbols related to specific topics like outer space, alt coins, and a lot more. Markets are sometimes driven by themes, trends, and narratives. Within those themes and trends are lists of symbols that are working to change something or build a better future. With the right research tools, investors and traders can find opportunities and capture enormous growth. But it all starts with a diligent research process and Sparks were created to help all investors and traders get started. That's key, getting started. All it takes is a spark to light a fire, to find the next best investment or trade. For example, here are some Sparks that may interest you: 1. Self-Driving Car Companies www.tradingview.com 2. Environmentally Friendly Stocks 3. Proof of Work Cryptocurrencies 4. Proof of Stake Cryptocurrencies 5. WallStreetBets Stocks And these are only a few examples. Our team is looking build even more Sparks in the future. Our goal is to help all investors and traders learn more about markets. If you have any questions or comments, please write them below. You can also request specific Sparks in the comments below. Thanks for watching the video and following along! - Team TradingView
NASDAQ:ATVIEducation
by TradingView
24
How to read an Income StatementOne of the three major financial statements used to reflect a company's financial performance during a certain accounting period is the income statement . The income statement shows a company’s revenue and expenses over a period of time. It is also called a Profit and Loss statement or P&L. The most common time periods of reporting are: 1. 1 quarter (90 days) 2. 1 year (365 days) 3. TTM (“trailing twelve months”) 4. YTD (year to date) Companies usually show the income statement in the quarterly earnings press release but not always. You can find them by looking at: 1. 10-Q (quarterly report) 2. 10-K (annual report) The income statement focuses on four key items— revenue, expenses, gains, and losses . It makes no distinction between cash and non-cash revenues (cash sales vs. credit sales) or cash vs. non-cash payments/disbursements (purchases in cash versus purchases on credit). The income statement flows in a step-down manner. The top number is revenue (sales) and costs are subtracted as you go down. Let’s take them one by one: 1) Revenue – this is the amount received or to be received from the sales of products/services during this period. Sales revenue is net, meaning it includes discounts, returns and any other deductions from the sales price. 2) COGS (cost of goods sold) – this figure shows all of the costs & expenses related to producing the product or that service. If you sell smartphones these would be the variable costs of: chips, plastic, labor costs, etc…to manufacture smartphones. 3) Gross profit – this is Revenue – COGS. It is also called “gross income”. 4) Operating expenses (OPEX) – a category that includes all costs to run a company’s day-to-day operations. These categories may include: Research and Development (R&D), Sales, Marketing, Selling, General and Administrative (SG&A), Overhead (rent, utilities, travel, salary, bonus, stock-based compensation). 5) Operating income – Gross Profit – OPEX. This shows how much profit a company earned from its ongoing operations. It is also called “EBIT”, which stands for “Earnings Before Interest and Taxes”. 6) Interest Expense – The amount of interest paid during this period. This can also include other types of financing charges like loan origination fees. 7) Pre-tax income – OPEX-Interest Expense. Also called “EBT” or “Earnings before Tax” 8) Income Tax Expense – Taxes paid to federal and local governments. 9) Net Income – Also called earning or profits. If the number is positive the business is profitable. If the number is negative, the business is unprofitable. To calculate “Earnings per share” or EPS we must divide the net income to the amount of shares outstanding a company has. For example: If a company makes 10 million and it has 1 million shares outstanding, each share is entitled to $10. An income statement may provide a lot of information about a company's operations. It comprises a business's operations, managerial efficiency, potential profit-eroding leaky areas, and if the organization is operating in line with industry peers. Trade with care. If you like our content, please feel free to support our page with a like, comment & subscribe for future educational ideas and trading setups.
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by financialflagship
23
The 5 ways civilizations collapseI watched a great video about the collapse of civilizations and I'd like to comment on it, with a bit more of a focus on the economic reasons and outcomes. 1- Crushed in a war by a far stronger force Destroyed, or elite destroyed (government & big banks & business owners) Aztec Inca Baghdad Carthage... Modern examples include Iraq and Libya. Just look at before and after pictures. Libya was destroyed by the USA and has returned to slavery, Iraq is some sort of warzone with a currency being literally sold as a ponzi scheme (search the Iraqi Dinar scam), he by the way the "it will go up" Dinar crashed so hard a few months ago I wasn't sure if it was worth posting about. PRO TIP: DO NOT INVEST IN A COUNTRY THE USA ARE ABOUT TO "BRING DEMOCRACY" TO! 2- Too aristocratic Central American, Andean, Greek, Anatolian, Syrian, Ghana, Zimbabwe, Indus Valley, Khmer civilizations ended in big part because they were too inegalitarian. (Very) ancient civilizations were all ultra aristocratic with the population getting vampirized by a minority through slavery (wageslavery), ravenous taxes (reminds me of something), human sacrifices. And they went down the same way. In ~1150 BC all civilizations around the anatolian peninsula (including the famous Mycenaean one in Greece) rapidly collapsed at around the same time. In some cases tiny barbarian armies were able to wipe out much stronger civilizations. The reason is the population hated their parasitic rulers and did not want to pay heavy taxes for their rulers to waste (ancient elites did not know well how to manipulate a population into submission and even WANTING higher taxes, also people used to have more common sense) The world entering the iron age meant the plebes could easily get armed, and an unfair government with crushing taxes would simply get killed (like in France in 1789). I wonder why today governments are trying so hard to disarm the population? Probably just a coincidence. Ancient Egypt near the end had taxes that could get as high as 60%. Huh with 25% corporate taxes plus 20% VAT plus 15% social contributions plus 10-50% income tax plus other taxes we're easily reaching that Egypt max and even going past it. We do not have that much evidence of bronze age nations, but more recently we know that the American and French revolutions started as tax revolts against unfair privileged governments. Everyone knows this, it's clear, precise, not my opinion, unlike the subjective list Davos made on how civilizations end (link at the bottom of this article). Inequality also allowed some ruling class to replace the previous one, like with the Caliphates for example. The population was keen for a change of government. These bronze nations with crushing taxes I mentioned could never grow very big and collapsed with the iron age (bronze weapons and armors were expensive and slow to make but not iron which allowed the peasants to get armed and not submit). Following their collapse large empires rose, such as the Roman and Persian mega-empires (at its height, 50% of the world population lived in the Persian empire, talk about a beast). Rome only had a 1% wealth tax from what I've read and did not over-rely on slaves. Rome lasted 1000 years and ended because of decadence. Obviously treating the population fairly (mostly with reasonable taxes, that's really all they care about), rather than a population that hates the rulers and would see foreign invaders as saviors, is what allowed these empires to grow and maintain their size. Modern governments tricked the workers into thinking "only the rich pay" and playing this childish "divide to conquer" tactic, but everyone pays, and people over time slowly figure it out. Some extremely ignorant and stupid members of the population support 90% taxes. Never seen in history. Cool so a company hiring workers will have to charge $10,000 for them, pay $9000, and there's $1000 left as wage minus the owner margin with life being way more expensive (hiring a $2000 wage plumber would cost $20,000). In inflation adjusted terms if basic workers still get charged $3000, rather than getting a wage of $1500 they'll get 10% so $300, minus the boss margin. Brilliant! So they would be totally reliant on welfare. And what? Even more mad at companies that pay them a misery wage? And ask for even higher taxes? Lol how are they falling for this? This explains why western government are doing everything to prevent people becoming their own boss, or they'd see it first hand. 3- Becoming too conservative After the great plague this happened: - MENA became ultra conservative, with Sharia law, and looking for the "return to the golden age". Still to this day they are primitive and ultra conservative. Iran had a ray of light of progress with the shah 50-60 years ago but it was short lived, the medieval backwards religious leaders quickly took over and imposed their rule of darkness. - India well... They were 40% or more of world GDP before, and they dropped to some unbelievable low number like 1%. They roll themselves in cow dung and bathe in the radioactive Ganga river. And open defecate. The Maharaja and silk road traders would never believe this future. It's beyond, I'd cry if I was indian. - China: I think most of the great wall was built by the Ming dynasty (1368–1644), or rebuild. They got into isolationist policies, got bureaucratic, corrupt and superstitious and stagnated at best. - West Africa: At the hand of slavers with primitive superstitions I guess. China still has their bureaucrats. Maybe that's why Africa is so poor, they whole civilizations were centered around slavers, and now they can't do that, meanwhile China is still allowed to have its bureaucrats (some of it works for them it's too much that is bad). - Russia: Became the third Rome. Went from an area of maybe 1-2 million square kilometer in east Europe and half of France population to this monster of 20 million square km and 3+ times France pop. - West Europe: Age of Enlightenment, progress and so on. Unlike others that had an unfair ruling class (Brahmins/Priests in India, Slavers in Sahel, Bureaucrats in China, Samurais in Japan, etc), the West had a balance between the monarchy, merchants, warriors and priests. Wealth equality was way greater back then that it is today. Yes the industrial revolution was a big factor. The conservative "civilizations" like China had contempt for the West, and saw them as irrelevant weirdoes. And then they went through centuries of humiliations and conquests by the West. To this day the (declining) West still makes 50% of world GDP. A funny example is India in 1000 AD during the muslim domination. The superstitious ruling priests in the face of muslim invasions rather than use taxpayer money to build armies, built... temples... are you serious? Well it did not work. Before that at the start of the iron age the old bible civs (Babylon, Assyrians...) that were ruled by corrupt and superstitious priests were wiped out by the mighty Persian empire, and Persians were so nice that people actually wanted to live there the priests had no chance of rallying the population and start a rebellion. As I explained in 2-. Bruh: "Darius allegedly asked his satraps whether the tribute was not too high. When they said it was moderate, Darius ordered that they should pay only half as much.". Another version says he took taxes and returned half of it "back to the people" (tax returns?). The empire was at its greatest extent under his rule which was in the early days of it. He divided taxes by 2 and everyone wanted to join. You don't always need huge armies. Unlike the modern west, Persia DID NOT PROVIDE AN "US VERSUS THEM" STORY. Can you imagine? A huge empire, and no divide. People actually enjoyed living there. No divide to conquer. www.oxfordhandbooks.com 4- Becoming too reformist The flip side of the conservative coin. Look at China with the cultural revolution. They went from what maybe 15% of world GDP to 1%, and they were the poorest country in the world. Russia in the early 1900s was a big empire, the 4rth world economy (smallest than Canada today) and if their population bred like non communist countries (UK, France, Germany), they'd have a population of at least a quarter of a million, they'd probably be nearly as powerful as the United States. The marxist reformists hurt Russia so much it's nauseating. They set them back at least a century. Yes there was technological and standard of living progress but of course there was! Even in Somalia. It's worldwide. It's like a super strong uptrend but within that worldwide uptrend they lagged behind. The reformists have no moral boundaries and work to totally destroy the "old world" to reach their idiotic utopia. These disgusting creatures are an absolute plague to humanity and set civilizations back centuries. They love to destroy statues, change constitutions, send people to camps, burn books etc. Hitler said about Christianity as "We have no sort of use for a fairy story invented by the Jews" and criticized its weakness compared to glorious islam, Catholics were sent to camps (especially Jehovah Witnesses) and moral standards went poof. Germany lost 1/3 of its territory, 15 million Germans were deported, West Europe stopped ruling the world, the USD became the reserve currency, and so on. Communists are so evil and stupid they dried up the Aral Sea for their "great" irrigation projects, and destroyed entire forests. The Aral Sea was one of history greatest environmental tragedies. The region economy was devastated, bringing unemployment and hardship, the sea life is gone probably millions of species went extinct, the region is a pollution disaster. And some extremely dumb celebrities (pleonasm) think communism is the solution to save the climate. "There is so little confidence in Russia's economy that there are more Rubbles outside of it than inside" damn. How long for the confidence to come back? 100 years? more? The Soviet Union (I quote): - Destroyed every functioning social system in Russia in order to usher in their glorious revolution and utopia - Artists were totally controlled - The Church was wiped out - The most productive and hardworking members of the population were killed - The ruling class enslaved people in gulags - Standards of living were lowered for faster industrialization and make it look like progress, like it was working - Non Governmental organisations and clubbed were banned - Labor Unions were banned (the irony) - People that were 1 minute late to work were eliminated by the secret police, or people feared that was the case - Makes me want to vomit Societies are held together by structures such as religion, family, patriotism. The state is not intelligent enough to control and run everything. The state tries to run the economy it's a catastrophe. The state tries to run a pandemic OH MY GOD. Anything they do is shit and vomit. I'd say the state is not intelligent enough to not forget to breathe. Oxygen thieves. The French revolution resulted in The declaration of human rights which says the government must be held responsible via violence if necessary, revolt is not a right but a duty. The Americans that wrote their Bill of Rights literally 6 months later have a similar thing with their amendments or something. Of course these sickening evil creatures that are not Politicians but demagogues with 0 convictions that only care about personal success and power and getting votes have used manipulation and brainwashing to get away with everything, cause great harm, and not get held responsible. "Extreme reformers aren't smart enough to realize how dumb they are, thinking themselves geniuses (😆) and everything that's not under their control is an evil force that gets in the way of the great plan" Today the west is obviously at risk. How big is this risk? I can't tell because this would get me mass reported and banned, and maybe even sent to jail. (That answers the question). I cri evertiem. 5- Decadence Maybe the slowest way to end. How Rome ended but it was accelerated with decadence bringing in destroying armies (1-). The 3 natural stages: Barbarism, Civilization, Decadence. Greeks near the end (obviously) saw themselves as "above" earthly matters, and used slaves for work while they enjoyed themselves in "higher" ways. In other words they were lazy bums that felt morally superior and selfish greedy perverts that took it easy. Disconnected from the real world. A bit like modern westerners with robots and not wanting to work, and importing much of what they consume. And disconnected from reality, terrified of dying at 80, willing to ban hunting, and much more. We see low birth rates (there are Roman and Greek texts complaining about this, and blaming the nobles for "having fun" rather than procreate, for "being eager to see their bloodline die"). We see low (or no) economic growth. We see sexual perversions. And so on, you get the picture. An example is when germanic barbarians invaded roman south france (gaul), the local aristocracy claimed there was no danger, barbarian terrorists that cut heads off with massive axes were a tiny number of "lunatics" nothing to worry about and those that wanted to protect the region were far right islamophobes wups I mean germanophobes. The aristocracy smelled their own farts and were stuck inside their own heads and thought it was impossible for these third world barbarians to hurt in anyway their region. Morons. What options do the population have when the ruling class is useless? It's like cutting a serpent's head. Combine being useless to outlawing weapons and spreading propaganda to make sure "radicals" never gain power and you get an inevitable collapse. So to conclude, you have all these ways for societies to collapse, once great civilizations vanish. And today: Point 4 => Who will seriously invest in Russia? So much for marxist progress. Point 1 => Who will buy Iraqi Dinars or invest in Libya other than fools? Point 3 => Who will invest in Iran? Who wants to invest in Afghanistan? Point 2 => Who wants to invest in old Babylon and Egypt. Ye there are no recent examples. Point 5 => Who wants to invest in the Nikkei 225 since 1990? But there is 1 thing that survives all these collapses, that keeps its value: It's yellow and shiny 😉 The world economic forum made their own list of reasons definitely not biased, here is a link for a good laugh: www.weforum.org
TVC:GOLDEducation
by MrRenev
The US & EU terrible demographics: What to expect and solutions.Japan, which today is the oldest country in the world, had a weird looking demographic "pyramid" 30 years ago, with a big bump in the 40s, there were 75% more japanese in their forties than 0-9 years old. What could possibly go wrong? Japan was the new superpower, everyone invested in Japan. And then it all collapsed. As usual it got so bad they actually ended up undervalued, and George Soros invested in the Nikkei before the rally a decade ago, probably using his large Forex knowledge to time the stock market. And yes he also bet on the Yen at that time and it worked very well. So what happened the the Japanese economy? In the late 80s the japanese economy surpassed the Soviet Union! That was mind blowing to everybody. And in 1995 it grew to the size of Germany + France + UK. In 1995, after the stock market - which was in a gigantic bubble - crash, it was 5,500 billion usd big. The stock market crash is not what ended the Japanese economy! At the time the USA were 7,600 big, so the little island was ~75% the size of the US! They were so advanced, people thought they'd conquer the world with giant robots. They were really ahead of everybody. And then the japanese started to retire, and as they aged demanded more and more support from the youth, more healthcare... tradingeconomics.com Germany and the UK have grown their economies, the UK even got ahead of France which I'm sure has nothing to do with anti-business laws. And Italy has already collapsed (since 2008), their brilliant solution was socialism, the downtrend will last a long while. But the big most noticeable ones are the Americans. Now the USA economy is two and a half times bigger than Germany + France + UK! How could a bunch of rednecks that love to fire guns in the air and mentally unstable drug addicts get this big? Their population has grown unlike the west europeans, but not that much. And they're hitting the wall NOW. A major explanation is their economy got way overheated (which had the secondary effect of creating lots of entitled recently born americans), in part because they attract the smartest migrants and all the foreign investments. NO you can't make people work till they are 80. Past 50 like it or not it's all downhill from here. Here is the productivity chart: Migrants: This is something that Japan has not done. They did not take migrants in, and they also did not (net) import goods to "buy time". West Europe and the United States have bet everything on importing migrants; which seems it might be a very profitable strategy: 0 cost to breed and raise workers, Africa for example has the charge of raising them, and Europe gets them entirely free once they reach working age. The US Department of Agriculture reported that the cost to raise a child born in 2015 to 17 years old would be an estimated $233,610. 10 million migrants = 2,330 billion us dollar saved. And if they are qualified and 25 years you save university and the first years of gaining experience costs. The EU had talks of importing 50 million migrants. At a cost of $200,000 per unit, since these are considered exchangeable pawns the word unit is adequate, that would be $10,000 billion saved! The foreign aid Africa has received for the past 70 years is estimated at around $1,400 billion. Muslim countries that provide many cheap workers obviously do not get anywhere near that amount. And I cannot tell how much money the west spends in anti-African propaganda - working on that negative "poor and violent Africa with no hope" image to push young africans to want to migrate to the west, also know as the second welfare objective (to keep them down and dependant rather than force them to build their own economies), the first one being obvious: "Keep dem kids alive and keep breeding, we want our workers!". The problem is... It is not working perfectly... You see, life is not a video game, and people are not interchangeable pawns. I'm not saying it doesn't or can't work I am just saying it is not working PERFECTLY. The west is facing more and more diversity issues just like Africa and Israel. And this everyone agrees on regardless of their politics, those on the left say it is because of systemic racism, and the other side say it's because people are different I guess. Just as long as we can all agree. Racism or not if you look at Yugoslavia they were the same race, culture, economy, history, and they still killed each other. It is a difficult subject to write about since for some people if you do not say everything will work out great you are automatically an enemy. So how do you even talk about it? You can't. Publicly. Just have to play dumb and act surprised. Ye well I might have to pretend to be stupid but my money won't be acting surprised that I can tell you. I am obviously not going to develop the subject. It may or may not be a viable solution, either was there are obstacles. On the other side of the flying pancake on a giant turtle's back China is facing the same issue. The CCP was surprised to learn the awful demographic numbers a few weeks ago, and started a new 3 child policy as well as fighting feminists. How could they possibly create a 1 child policy and never manage it? Seems unreal. But anyway, now they got a disgusting demographic pyramid, and it will take at best 25 years to fix. China is not looking for migrants to support its aging population. So it would appear they are going to follow Japan? NOPE. See, China has something very special: The USA & West Europe owe China A LOT. Africa owes them too. The world owes them trillions. In theory they could just lay back, relax, and let the world work for them. In practice they might have to use their military to get what is rightfully theirs. But the USA, Germany etc have their own issues and can't really pay up... Will be a big big problem. I am not an expert, I invest in the short term in the currency markets, like every decent "specialist" I know and take an interest in about everything that gravitates around but is not exactly my activity, but I don't really get into it, I stay focus in my area. If you want to know more about the subject, some people of whow the job it is - doesn't necessarily mean they are good at it or know more than me, but they may, at least they have researched the subject extensively - write about the subject. There are articles, "official" reports on the subject, as well as books. An economist that was on the United Kingdom Monetary Policy Committee and an economist that was Managing Director at Morgan Stanley wrote a report available on the website of the Bank of International Settlement, and according to them big money does read what they publish: www.bis.org
Education
by MrRenev
4
21 Largest countries by total tradeA few things I notice: Brazil has all the tools in its hands to, but it does not trade (it's rank 25 to 30). AUD NZD are overrated (overtraded). China way underrated but they are new, they were a tiny economy until recently following their cultural revolution. Canada a bit overtraded but not a big deal. CHF and USD seem overtraded but that's normal, Switzerland has all the banking and all the big trading firms, the US have the world intl currency (for now) and all investors in the world buy US stocks (for now). Hehe Turkey is not even there, I think it trades around 400 billions just like Brazil & Australia. Mexico has a weaker army than Singapore. They're 500,000 btw. ==> No wonder they have drug gangs patrolling the country in trucks with mounted guns and "make examples. Not impossible drug cartel exports > The country exports. Russia is a significant world player because of its army. Russia has some major obstacles to growth. It is rekt by its no access to the world oceans. ==> "Fourteen percent of U.S. counties that are adjacent to the coast produce 45 percent of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP), with over three million jobs (one in 45) directly dependent on the resources of the oceans and Great Lakes.". "One of every 6 jobs in the U.S. is marine-related". "U.S. maritime transport carries 95% of the nation’s foreign trade". "More than 80% of the nation’s economy is supported in coastal states". It's that important. Not a Russia expert (I don't even trade the Rubble) but I think this explains why Russia top 2 exports: 1- Mineral fuels including oil: US$141.3 billion (42.1% of total exports) - sent by pipelines. 2- Gems, precious metals: $30.4 billion (9%) - For very valuable goods higher transport costs aren't that big of a deal. The strong army is strategic, it gives indirect advantages it is not just for conquering. But about the conquering... They have the strongest land force in the world and should they just develop supertrains and anti ice ships or something? Just give up on world waters? Even if the conquer east Europe they'd still be at the same point. They're good at hacking for sure. And Yandex, VK, culture, video games... Historically they are an industrial power right? They are Transitioning towards virtual which you do not need to put on a container ship. Really not an expert as I said but this seems like common sense, and I'm paying attention from afar. They've been bagholding attempts to improve the situation for centuries "never give up never surrender". Either recreate some giant USSR (not going to happen) or cut losses and accept this weakness, develop other things.
Education
by MrRenev
Hash Ribbons buy signal breakdown and verbose explanationThere are two decision branches the indicator may take to trigger a buy signal. I've copied the most relevant lines of code below and added comments. I added a visual representation for every single element that exists in those lines of code. The different indicators I add here have educational purposes only. The original script already does an excellent job presenting the most relevant information. The coloured spring (circles) leading to a buy signal has everything I want to know. Publishing this idea has the main objective of serving as a cheatsheet for myself if I forget all the underlying context later. first buy condition (blue circle and dotted line) price momentum just turned positive, and hash rate growth has recovered after price momentum turned negative and miners capitulated crossover(s10,s20) and // simple moving average checkmark barssince(recovered) < barssince(crossunder(s10,s20)) and // red range on the price chart barssince(recovered) < barssince(capitulation) // red range on the price chart or second buy condition (purple circle and dotted line) price momentum is currently positive, and shorter term hash rate growth is higher than the longer term hash rate growth s10>s20 and // green range on the price chart crossover(HR_short,HR_long) // hash rate growth checkmark
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by givanse
1