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Meltup

Why Your Shorts Are Not Winning - Part 2The trend continues to be your friend until the very end. This is 2 day chart that I posted in the beginning of the year that continues to be in play since the COVID meltdown in early 2020. Price has been in a strong uptrend with very few pullbacks. Even the pullbacks result in dramatic reversals and pumps to the upside. Here is where it gets interesting. We are approaching the top of the channel and the last time we touched the top of the channel, we had a strong pullback. Is the market melting up, only to reach the top of the channel and turn back? Is price going to breakout of this huge channel? I think we're going to find the answers to these questions very soon. Good luck. Never play the breakouts, wait for the retests. When it feels really right, it's probably wrong, and when it feels very wrong it's probably right.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by XYZ-Trader-
2
To the moon: No more bears!Tech has gone into a melt up! The word on the block is that there are no more bears. Well, loads of people are long in the market. Would you go long now? When I look back to March 2020, the dip south seems soooo insignificant. We know that markets correct but we don't know when major corrections are going to happen. What's driving the market? Some say it's about looking beyond the pandemic. I think that's just neat terminology to cover greed. We're now into an era where GDP doesn't matter. PE ratios don't matter. Political and economic data don't matter - most of them pumped up anyway. Delta and epsilon to come in the pandemic - doesn't matter. Crises in demand and supply don't matter. China doesn't matter after all the hullaballoo about the China Deal - few people remember much about it. US Dollar crash - that's great news for the markets. No really - markets love weak currencies. Inflation - what's that? The FED said it's transitory - but nobody except the FED knows what that means. Housing market totally overheated with minor cooling in the last two weeks. Transportation index in trouble. Not a problem. Global warming - fires in 20 countries. Fires in Siberia producing more CO2 than all the other fires combined. Melting of Greenland: the total aerial extent of surface melting (total melt-day extent) for 2021 through August 16 is 21.3 million square kilometers (8.2 million square miles), tied for the fourteenth highest total to date, and well above the 1981 to 2010 average of 18.6 million square kilometers (7.2 million square miles). Who cares - climate problems are well out of sight - unless the Gulf Stream shuts down 'unpredictably'. Debt - who cares? There is loads of almost free money around from Uncle Sam - which really comes from the FED passing tons of money. Live fast - get rich fast is the name of the game! Money out of thin air? Yep - more of that to come. Trillions of it. Money for nothing and ..... for free! LOL. So the bears must be dead! If you think differently have your say. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
U
by Captain_Walker
Zones of advantage - if shorting the DAXI show two zones of advantage. The first has happened already. Those looking to short the DAX may be interested in another zone. Certainly shorting after a significant fall is not a great idea, especially as bulls may be looking at a possible double bottom. The zones do not mean that the market has to obey them! The zones create probabilities. An additional advantage is that that price is under a trend switch on the 4H time frame. Scenarios to prepare for (notes to self): 1. Price rocks north and busts through both zones. 2. Price collapses now. 3. Price consolidates before moving north or south. The big issue here is avoiding FOMO. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
WHSELFINVEST:GERMANY40CFD
by Captain_Walker
Interesting melt up scenario for SPYI may have found a pattern between all the corrections we've had since 2018. There seems to be a 1.7x factor between them. 12 x 1.7 = 20.4 20.4 x 1.7 = 35 If the pattern holds true then... 35 x 1.7 = 60 If the pattern continues, then that would mean a 60% crash for SPY. If we assume the bottom of the 60% crash follows the lower support level as shown on the chart, then that would indicate a blow off top at $500 for SPY (20% upside from current levels). 20% in only a few months would be a melt up scenario, which some contrarian analysts like David Hunter are predicting. Anyway, just a bit of fun, not a serious piece of analysis :)
AMEX:SPY
by Huntz
15
SPX (1D) Melt up does make sense The melt up we've all seen in SPX does actually "kind" of make sense, before most 10% corrections have happend in the last few years it has almost always had a melt up just before it fell in a rather brutal volatility, which i belive is what we're seeing here. STOCH RSI indicates to a final 1-2% push, MACD also has room for a final push. RSI is showing a broken trend but if we look back to SEP 2020, it melts up then falls to create a new trend. (I dont think we'll see a crash just yet, but a bigger correction to then an absolute final push later this year.) This could of course depend on rates and events but this is my map if not.
SP:SPX
by Oerhortbegovad
2
S&P: Why your shorts aren't winningHave you been shorting this bull market wondering why you're not winning? I've been getting direct messages asking me when is it a good time to short or why when there is a reversal candle there is no follow through to the downside. Zooming out to the 2 day chart I think you can see why. We are in a massive uptrend channel since early last year right after the big COVID drop. THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND As of today, I would not be trying to short or even go long. I think the market is too risky and is coming up to heavy resistance. We need a big pullback before I think the S&P becomes attractive. Where is that pullback? I may end up waiting to see it pullback closer to the bottom of the channel (with retest) to go long. I'll also take a breakout of the top of the channel (with retest). Why not short when it reaches to the top of the channel? We are in a strong uptrend and going short is not recommended. Some may take the short at the top of the channel and be rewarded. It's just not my type of trade. I like trades with higher probability. Hopefully this view makes it much more clear why if you've been shorting the market since March 2020, you have been on the wrong side of the trade. I will be a seller if the bottom of the channel breaks to the downside (with retest). Then I think shorting will become attractive. Good luck trading. "When it feels really right it's probably wrong and when it feels really wrong it's probably right."
OANDA:SPX500USD
by XYZ-Trader-
5
NDX DOES IT PIVOT HERE?I'm observing some interesting trends on this NDX renko chart. Take a look at my lower wavetrend indicator and the simple, yet remarkable, patterns that exist. This chart goes back 10 years but I really want you to focus on the giant ascending broadening wedge (aka megaphone) from 2018 until now. I see this area as a potential pivot but we're just as likely to melt-up, even if we do have another correction. I'd love to see a #6 of this megaphone but I'm not certain of that. If the NDX eventually breaks above this pattern then it will most likely soar similarly to 1999-2002. This seems absurd but it's not unlikely considering the ingredients baked into our current monetary cake. I will consider a long hedge (2023+) calls in QQQ if we can have another nice correction but I don't like the risk/reward of going long here. Let's see if we can get another nice pull back.
TVC:NDQ
by gghsusa
3
S&P Analysis Week of 12/27/2020: Goodbye 2020It's the last week of the year and it looks like the market will be making a move here soon. Price is in an uptrend but consolidating inside a wedge pattern. This means price is building energy and ready to make a move to the upside or downside. Since it's difficult to predict, I would wait on the sideline until confirmation. The trend is your friend until the very end, so I will not be shorting unless there is a major technical breakdown and trade setup 2 occurs. Otherwise I think the trade setups described are easy to read and understand. Do not play the breakouts, wait for the retrace and resumption. My experience is that 90% or more of breakouts result in a retrace or failed breakout. Wait for the confirmation. Safe trading and happy new year!
CME_MINI:MESH2021Long
by XYZ-Trader-
2
S&P Analysis Week of 12/13/2020: Will Selling Continue?S&P Analysis Week of 12/13/2020: Will Selling Continue? Will the S&P continue to sell off this week or will it make new all time highs? There has been a lot of whiplash and volatility over the year and last week was another good example. How many people thought they were in a good trade making profit only for the market to come back and take it away and some? The market makers love to make investors look like fools and I expect that to continue this week. My setups this week are pretty simple: Trade #1 (long): This trade setup waits until we are back at all time highs. A break above this level (with a retest) would be a good bet we are going to see higher prices and/or a melt-up. Note: Markets like to test the bottom of breakup candles and the top of breakdown candles. Do not be surprised or frustrated if price climbs back up to this point. It could just be a retest, which is why I would wait until we get above this breakdown candle. Also, price usually does not succeed on the first attempt. If price hangs out in this area after the first attempt, expect the market to plow through this level at some point. Trade #2 (short): This trade setup waits until we break last week's low (with a retest) before going on to make lower prices. Last week I indicated a potential short trade but I labeled it as 'not preferred' because we were in an uptrend and the trend is your friend until its not. We are still in an uptrend technically (all the charts on the higher timeframes look healthy). However, if price starts to make a lower low from last week, we are probably heading for lower prices. So that's why I drew this trade in this week. Note: I still think you need to be very careful shorting in an uptrend. Last week, we saw whiplash because there were numerous short opportunities erased by a reversal pump. That's what happens when you try to short in an uptrend. Prices bounce a lot easier or tend to want to continue to go up. NEVER play the breakouts (they usually result in a retrace back to the breakout/breakdown area). Wait for the retest and resumption in the direction of your trade setup. Good luck and please hit the like button.
CME_MINI:MESZ2020
by XYZ-Trader-
3
S&P Analysis Week of 10/11/2020: Will Market Continue Melt up?Over the last several weeks, my trade setups have been spot on and my returns on the S&P have been outstanding. Check them out in my profile. As usual, I keep my charts super simple because I think markets are complex in and of themselves. Finding a high probability setup without all those noisy indicators (MACD, Volume, Moving Averages, and all the other ones I don't even know about) and complicated theories (like Elliot Wave) is what I do by looking at buying off support during an uptrend and selling off resistance during a downtrend. That's simple and easy to learn and it helps me find good trade setups. This week I'm looking really only for long setups (trade 1 & trade 2). I put a short opportunity only if the strong support at the bottom is retested and fails (I'm not anticipating but I left it there for awareness). We are in a strong uptrend/melt up, so I'm not looking for a sell unless some major support breaks. I also don't try to predicate where the market's will go. I look for trades on both sides and enter trades based on what the market gives me. I have some bias but this helps to keep them in check. This week will probably continue to see the volatility and whiplash we have been seeing. I don't think that will be a surprise. However, here is something I think people forget. When price tries many times to break above a strong resistance, breaks through finally and then takes off without looking back, 9 times out of 10, price comes back to the breakout area for a retest. When does price do it? That's the hardest question to answer because market makers will do it when it's least expected and may wait until price goes so far past the breakout that people forget and think we will not come back. I'm 99% sure the broken strong resistance area will be retested. This is my trade setup #1. If price this week comes back to retest that area and resumes off it, that's a strong buy. Otherwise breaking above all time highs with a retest and resumption is another high probability setup in case you miss trade setup #1 or price keeps going up without looking back. But caution if price doesn't look back, that at some point in the future, price will most likely come back to that breakout area. So always be sure to take profits along the way. Good luck and be careful out there. The market makers are really trying hard to screw both sides lately (even more than usual) Remember when trading: "When it feels really wrong, it's probably right. And when it feels really right, it's probably wrong."
OANDA:SPX500USD
by XYZ-Trader-
8
S&P Midweek Update 10/6/2020 - Trumps Tweet: Did it matter?I usually only post one trade idea a week for the S&P, but this week's trade idea produced an excellent trade that I closed it and may look for another trade setup for the second half of this week. Check it out. It was a long trade setup out of a triangle wedge. The market today (Tuesday - 10/6) had a violent reversal after it looked like it was melting up (hence why I closed my earlier trade and took profit; I hate melt-ups). The question of whether Trump's tweet about delaying stimulus really spooked the market, or if the market was planning for a technical correction doesn't really matter to me. The timing of the tweet and the market reversal was interesting though. I look at price action alone. Some might not believe it, but the market structure still could have some upside based on a bullish uptrend channel it has formed over the last several trading sessions and has stayed inside even after today's dump. As I've posted before, I DO NOT try to predict what the market will do. I look for a trade setup on the sell side and a trade setup on the buy side. This way I don't let my bias interfere with what the market hands me. Here there is a large 'No Man's area' (the channel) and I will wait patiently for price to either break out of the channel to the upside or downside. The breakout and breakdown of this channel happen to correspond to strong support and resistance (isn't it funny how these things work out - there are no coincidences in the market). Never play the breakout. Be patient. Wait for price to return to it's breakout area, retest it, and resume up (indicated by the arrows). Patience is rewarded by this market. Good luck.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by XYZ-Trader-
S&P Analysis Week of 10/04/2020: Will Market's Tank or go HigherAs usual, I like to keep my charts as simple as possible. My last two weeks have been spot on and I was able to make some nice profits. This week I'm keeping it even simpler. I do NOT try to predict the markets. I take the high probability trade setups the market gives me. I'm waiting for either a breakout above the diagonal trend line (with a retest) and then resumption off, OR a breakdown below the critical support line (with a retest). I'm not really sure how Trump's COVID hospitalization will affect the markets so I'm no even going to try to predict. However, I know a lot of people went short on Friday and kept their positions open over the weekend. The market loves to do the opposite of the masses. "When it feels really wrong, it's probably right. And when it feels really right, it's probably wrong." Good luck.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by XYZ-Trader-
14
S&P Week of 9/27/2020 - Dead Cat Bounce or More Upside?Here are my two trade setups for the week of 9/27. Last week I was able to successfully take my trade setup that I posted to the downside and it was very profitable. At the end of last week's session, there was a strong surge up after price retested 3200 for a third time (confirming strong support). The big question is, is that indication that price is going to resume up or was that a dead cat bounce? I keep my charts simple and leave the option open for both an upside trade and a downside trade. Note that price has made a descending wedge pattern, which is generally bullish, and last week's hanging man candle on the weekly suggests we might have a reversal of the downtrend. I would not act on any initial break out or break down. The best idea is after the breakout/breakdown, wait for price to retrace and then resume in the direction of the breakout/breakdown. Even though the descending wedge is bullish, I am staying neutral until one of my trade setups occur. This may take 1-2 trading sessions to bring clarity, so wait and be patient for the high probability setup. Good Luck!
OANDA:SPX500USD
by XYZ-Trader-
2
DJI - Wall Street - melt up or melt down coming - your choice. Central banks around the world are coordinating in a last stand to prevent global meltdown. So - they're about to decide massive liquidity injections into 'their economies'. China, the USA, Singapore are already on board. Expect Germany to follow cuz the German economy is on the brink of a recession. What this could mean is a number of things: 1. The punters love it - and blow the markets north like nobody's business. 2. The punters reject it - and bail out with cash in hand which they'll pump into Gold (a better investment at this time). 3. Or - heavy volatility in coming days in a massive bear-bull fight, before the markets make a final decision. All of this stuff has been triggered by an itty bitty virus that disrespects everybody. The world is now waking up to how central China is to global supply chains of commodities, manufactured parts, goods and services. No predictions from me - as I have no working crystal ball. Disclaimers & Declarations : This is not financial advice or encouragement to trade in securities. If you act on anything said here and lose your money, kindly sue yourself!
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker