Market is Bullish and More VolatileThe market is bullish and becoming more volatile after each crisis.
We can clearly observe that after each crisis—trade war, COVID-19, and inflation reaching a high of 9%—the range of its bullish trend widens.
In this discussion, we will explore strategies to navigate this volatility effectively.
Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options
Ticker: MNQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Mnq
Nasdaq Monthly Analysis - Possible Measured Move CorrectionThere may be a lot of choppy price action at the top of this trading range until price definitively starts to trend down to facilitate the correction or break out to make new highs. The reason for speculation that Nasdaq may be due for a correction is based on the current impulsive wave's similarity to the previous impulsive wave in both price and time.
If the current impulsive wave has reached exhaustion it will be an approximate measured move of the previous impulsive wave with increase factors of:
1.022 increase in price range (10,365÷10,142)
1.046 increase in days to climax (637÷609)
If the upcoming correction is also a measured move of the previous correction, using the calculated increase factors, the correction should be projected to occur over approximately 340 days (325×1.046) and decline by approximately 6,483 Points (6,344×1.022).
This would bring price to 14,309 (20,792-6,483) around the date of June 16, 2025, which would also bring price back to the trend line.
The projected correction, based the listed calculations, may retrace 77 Points below the 61.8% level (14,386-14,309). It is also worth mentioning that the previous correction retraced 76 Points below the 61.8% level (10,503-10,427). This difference in retracement below 61.8% is a factor increase of 1.013 (77÷76).
On the monthly timeframe, technical indicators such as Stochastic and RSI show price as overbought.
Why a Cautious Bull on the US Markets?This is a classic bull market—smooth and trendy. However, it has become a cautious bull, moving within a much wider range, similar to what we observed after March.
Especially in July and August: For the Nasdaq, it was down by 17%, but it has since recovered within a two-month period.
Is this good or bad? It really depends on how we've positioned ourselves. If you're an investor, seeing your July positions slump so much only to recover so quickly could be quite unsettling—it might even give you a heart attack. But if you're a trader, you should find this volatility interesting and take advantage of it.
Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures & Options
Ticker: MYM
Minimum fluctuation:
Outright: 1.0 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
BOJ Rate Hike Causes Unrest in the Stock Markets: What next?When the Bank of Japan hiked its interest rate at the end of July, global markets went into turbulence.
We will discuss what currency carry trade is, why the yen carry trade has caused this global volatility, and, importantly, whether the market will resume its uptrend.
Micro E-Mini Nasdaq Futures and Options
Ticker: MNQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $0.50
Japanese Yen Futures
Ticker: 6J
0.0000005 per JPY increment = $6.25
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
How will the market react after the next US election?How will the market perform if either Biden or Trump wins? That should be an easy question to answer, as we can track the market performance on the first day each became President of the United States.
Micro E-Mini Nasdaq Futures and Options
Ticker: MNQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Technical Outlook – Last Half of 2024Today, I will share how I plan my trades for the second half of 2024. I am not trying to make any predictions here, as no one knows the exact day or hour. However, when a big move or turnaround begins, we will be able to recognize what is about to come.
Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options
Ticker: MNQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
How will Stocks React to Inflation?The stock market's reaction to an inflation trend always involves a delay.
Based on studies of the inflation trend, this delay is approximately 6 months. How about the inflation data month by month?
Micro E-Mini Nasdaq
Ticker: MNQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Bear Market or Short-term Sell-Off?The March CPI was reported at 3.5%, higher than expected on April 10. This development triggered a sharp decline in the stock market, with a total drop of 8.5% from the recent high.
Could this downward movement signal the onset of a major bear market, or is this sell-off simply a retracement, setting the stage for the bull market to resume?
We will explore this question by studying the following hypothesis:
• A rising CPI is a leading indicator of a bear market.
• A declining CPI is a leading indicator of a bull market.
Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options
Ticker: MNQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ Analysis - Continuous, Just as the Markets !This is a Thread, so Follow for Technical Analysis performed with TrapZone Pro & Unusual Market Volume Detector (UMVD) Indicators.
* Trend is Based on TrapZone Color
* Bar Colors give us Momentum Green from strong Up Moves. Red Bars point to strong Down Moves.
* Red UMVD = Selling Pressure & Green UMVD = Buying Pressure. Purple is for Divergence = Battle of Supply & Demand
--------------------
1-15-2024
Up trend with GREEN TrapZone but RED UMVD at the moment causing price to move sideways.
Nasdaq Breaking highs! Entryy??It looks like NQ should break the weekly highs here and it should be looking backwards be a strong push ahead but because of the current market conditions this could simply be a liquidity grab before going back downwards especially if interest rates are raised next quarter.
Would I swing here for the long run? Absolutely not! Wait for some kind of a confirmation for long term entries. Super risky to hold if you're up. At least take partials if you are.
Day traders and short term swing traders should in my opinion, have a bullish bias to start this week and look for bullish entries if given any retracement + entry signals according to your strategies.
That's what I see, what do you guys think?
(Reason for current bullish move: Ease on interest rates, declining USD and golden zone fib retracement, "historically" showing upwards momentum after so there should be many buyers in the market.)
Nasdaq Next Short Oppertunity MNQSo after yesterdays rip that was projected on our previous anaysis we also hit the resistance target and reversed as projected. As usual bullish news doesn't change how much money is available and willing to be spent on the market and often times just moves price to a projected sell wall faster and is followed by longer consolidation.
The short move to the downside posted last night has been very very good BUT like each move in the market it is countered by a full on reversal or a partial retrace and continuation.
Currently targeting the retrace and continuation to the down side the real question is at what level should we start making attempts to reenter.
This is a 4hour chart and looking at past price structure and golden pocket retrace area IF IF IF price is able to brake above point A of ABC to the upside into the golden pocket would be an idea place to look for a reentry to the short side.
As far as short targets go we are keeping an open mind and waiting to see at what level price reverses and is clearly headed back down but will certainly post our projections.
Nasdaq Already At Resistance?As projected in our previous chart the Nasdaq has seen quite a rip to the upside but like all good things it must eventually come to an end.
Looking at the 4hr chart for MNQ we can see price has completed a perfect ABC measured move ending right high time frame resistance with overbought oscillators starting to show divergence on smaller time frames.
Being we are technically in a macro down trend this current rally should be thought of as a bull rally in a large downtrend. It is likely that price will trade in this range for awhile before making a decision to continue to the down side or give a clear reversal for new highs.
Personaly I am targeting the down side as price has already made its way back up to high time frame resistance, has completed a full ABC measure move retrace, oscillators are reaching over bought on medium time frames with divergence developing on the small time frames.
While we may not shoot straight down for new lower lows a retrace of our current pump is in order at a minimum.
Currently targeting the 15400-15420 area for a short entry postion back to the 15100-200 area and looking for a bounce for a possible lower high and more continuation to the downside.
Trade Well.....
Nasdaq Ready For Push Up?Looking at the nasdaq futures market we can see price has been down trending for approximately the last month.
While this down trend will probably continue a significant squeeze / retrace of the trend at some point should be expected. The question is when would we expect to see this correction.
This is an hourly line chart on the log scale for micro nasdaq futures "MNQ" and we can see price is currently approaching a significant level of support.
The last local push down has a very impulisive 5 wave structure to it causing a falling wedge to form with a potential reversal point right at our significant support level of $14,850.
Given a clear reversal signal at this level a retace of the current down swing will be likely with two significant levels above to watch for a reversal and continuation to the downside for potentialy much lower prices.
As price has been dropping it has formed a descending channel with a target area from our current level at the 15-15100 area. Also measuring from the top of the swing to this potential bottom the 50% retrace level at 15,350 is lining up very nicely with what would create a much larger head and shoulders pattern.
Trade Well.................
NDX/NQ/MNQ Pre-Market and Week OutlookAs we sit right now it looks like the NDX might gap on the open.
I'll be live trading streaming this week so tune into that, also update idea as week unfolds.
If we start on the upside the zone what we're watching is the August 2022 4D key level at 13,639.
A reach for the market would be the 4D extreme zone between 13,900 and 14,100 or so.
On the downside we see the obvious day momentum checks and bias checks as well as key levels and gaps.
One key area is the significant high anchored vwap at 12,918, if that gets tested and holds anticipate the highs will be breached.
Below that around 12,500 to 12,000 is the four day reaction zone which aligns with key reaction zones on the daily.
Should be obvious how to trade this week with these key reaction zones identified. wait for confirmation and trade for the RD 4-chart patterns.
Marlo's Going To Hell NQ Swing Strategy I know it's so simple you can't believe it! Is it magic? Is the Devil running the Stock Market!?!
Nope, what you're seeing is the all-pervasive 50% Principle in action!
www.investopedia.com
"It states that if an asset drops after a price increase, it will lose between 50% and 67% of recent price gains before rebounding. "
So over any given range, the retrace will test the thirds for support and resistance. NQ counts in the thousands so xx666.00! You'll see similar across smaller TFs and ranges as well using 33.34% and 66.67% retraces.
NQ Reverts Off 618 Support ($11,6389)If you are short, stay very cautious.
This base/bottom in the NQ may be the start of a breakout rally phase after months of consolidation below a strong downward sloping trend line.
Far too many people are failing to understand the market dynamics at play right now. Shorts are getting slaughtered as the reversion/reflation trade is happening.
Follow my research. This is just getting started.
MNQ struggling to break resistance. Launchpad setting upIf you trade the MICROS, like me, then you'll want to be cautiously aware of a key Flag/APEX pattern setting up in the MNQ.
Any breakout above the PURPLE resistance channel may prompt a strong upside price rally after February 12th or so.
Pay attention to the volatility over the next 10+ days as the ES/NQ/YM are likely to struggle and become wildly volatile as price attempts to break free of the downward trend channels.
If you have not been following my research, please check out my other TradingView posts and other resources.
The next 5+ years are going to be very surprising for traders/investors.
Get ready for a Wave-5 rally.
NQ/MNQ Futures Reaction AreasOn this chart are the reaction areas for the NQ, MNQ, NDX at least for the first part of the week.
I wanted to release this before the Sunday open because it might help for the overnight session.
All levels or areas have short descriptions.
I published this on a 30m chart (structure) because it really provides a good mix between my standard intraday (5m) timeframe and the 60m golden timeframe.
What is clear here is the zone between 12,000 - 12,9000 doesn't provide many high-probability reaction areas.
As usual, the focus for the week should be momentum and how well that is being held up, especially given the close on Friday. It was clear the market wanted to recapture the weekly open and it did just that.
Any downward move has to find support at some key reaction zone; otherwise, sentiment will shift against a continued upside move.
11,100 or so, really that key battle zone. If the price gets here and how it reacts will be key. Watching how the 60m momentum and bias hold LONG will be key going into the first few days of this trading week.
As far as known news events, Thursday is the big day. So as the week develops, plotting where Thursday wants to test and close will be key. I'll update this idea as we go along this week.
Nasdaq micro futures attempting a 1hr chart double bottom?1 hour chart can be unpredictable but as of now it looks like this pattern wants to validate. Of course market closing in 11 minutes will postpone it from happening before close most likely, and a retest if the neckline is always a good possibility. *not financial advice*