Tracking a pattern that could signal the Top is In I am tracking a micro pattern with the new local high made in the ES last night and today's price action as a micro 5-down....we should get a slight retrace into the 5960 ish area. Maybe tomorrow...maybe in the overnight session tonight.
If price can then breach todays micro low of 5884 in the ES futures...we need to then follow through with a breach of 5857 to give us our first indication, we may have struck a top.
From there I am following 2 counts...Purple, or my primary count which is a minor C of Intermediate (A).
Best to all,
Chris
NASDAQ 100 CFD
NASDAQ got the 4H MA50 confirmation it neededNasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a Channel Up since the April 21 bottom and last week it unfolded its latest technical Bearish Leg.
As the 4H RSI bottomed on the 30.00 oversold barrier and the 4H MACD formed a Bullish Cross, that Leg bottomed and today the index gave the confirmation of the new Bullish Leg by breaking above its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
This is similar to the April 21 bottom, so we expect at least a minimum of +9.18% rise on the current Bullish Leg, which gives a 22500 short-term Target.
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US100 (NASDAQ) BREAKOUT BLUEPRINT: LOOT LIKE A SMART TRADER!🔥 NASDAQ 100 HEIST: STEAL THE TREND LIKE A MARKET BANDIT! 🚨💰
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Long the breakout near 21,500.0 (or ambush pullbacks at 20,400.0 & 19600.0).
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Hide stops under the last 4H swing low/wick—no reckless bets!
Adjust for your risk—survivors play smart. ⚡
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Main Target: 22,250.0 (or bail early if momentum fades).
Scalpers: Trail stops & ghost out with quick wins. 🏃♂️💨
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NASDAQ 100’s on fire: Fundamentals + COT data + macro tides align.
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Avoid new trades during high-impact news. 📢
Lock profits with trailing stops if you’re already in. 🔐
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NASDAQ: Needs to reclaim the 4H MA50.Nasdaq is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 62.436, MACD = 467.180, ADX = 28.529) as it maintains its long term bullish trend through the Channel Up pattern, which recently is transitioning into a Rising Wedge. We are willing to turn bullish again upon a 4H candle closing over the 4H MA50 and aim for a +11.17% rise (TP = 23,000) on the HH trendline, like the April 21st rebound did.
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US1OO SHORT TRADE IDEA Chart Breakdown:
1. Trendline Break:
A clear uptrend was in place, supported by the ascending blue trendline.
The price broke below this trendline, suggesting a potential reversal or correction.
After the break, price attempted to retest the trendline (a common behavior before continuation in the new direction).
2. Bearish Rejection:
Price got rejected around the trendline retest zone, which aligns with a resistance area marked in red.
This confluence zone suggests supply dominance, pushing the price lower.
3. Imbalance Zone (Fair Value Gap):
A pink rectangular zone marks an imbalance, often called a fair value gap (FVG)—where price moved too quickly, leaving inefficient trading volume.
These zones are typically revisited to "fill the imbalance."
4. Heikin Ashi Candles:
Recent candles show strong bearish momentum with little to no upper wicks, confirming a downward trend.
Multiple consecutive red candles support trend continuation.
📉 Bearish Setup Analysis:
Entry Zone: Around the trendline retest, near 21,000–21,100.
Target Zone: Imbalance/fair value gap around 20,100–20,200.
Stop-Loss Zone: Above the resistance area, around 21,150–21,200.
Risk-Reward Ratio: Favorable (visualized with the green zone risk and extended red arrow for reward).
✅ Bearish Case Justification:
Trendline break and retest failure.
Rejection at key resistance/supply.
Imbalance acting as a price magnet.
Momentum strongly favors bears (based on Heikin Ashi structure).
⚠️ Risk Factors / Invalidations:
If price reclaims and holds above the trendline or breaks above 21,200, the bearish setup could be invalidated.
Major macro news or earnings could reverse the move rapidly.
Watch for divergences or weakening bearish momentum on smaller timeframes as price approaches the target zone.
🧭 Strategy Tip:
This could suit a swing short setup, especially for traders looking to capitalize on trendline break retests and imbalance fills. A tighter entry around the top of the rejection zone provides a better risk/reward.
Apple losing $3Trillion clubNASDAQ:AAPL lost a fair amount of market share this week.
Coming under pressure from comments by Trump and tarrif news.
Apple seems to be a target for the president despite him answering a call on live TV today using an Iphone...kinda ironic.
Apple could easily chop in this 9% range before it makes a definitive move.
I lean more bullish since we're testing the lows of the trade range.
If Apple holds here it could be forming a right shoulder for a very bul,ish inverse head and shoulder pattern.
This Guy has arrows down to 4400My last market update ended up receiving a comment from a Trading View user that seemingly was mocking the fact that my shorter-term chart posted in an update to my followers had directional arrows down to the approximate area of ES 4400.
Here's my longer-term expectations. If some didn't like 4400, I suspect they will equally dislike sub-ES 1,000.
Best to all.
Chris
NASDAQ: Channel Up to soon initate the new bullish wave.Nasdaq is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 67.876, MACD = 566.960, ADX = 50.516) as it is still holding the Channel Up of almost 1 month back, whose support is the 1H MA200. Right now the price is consolidating around the 1H MA50, approaching the bottom of the pattern. Once it does, we expect it to initate the new bullish wave. With the shortest one of the Channel Up being +5.90%, we remain bullish here and look towards a TP = 22,250 by early next week.
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NASDAQ Critical level for short-term.Nasdaq (NDX) is testing a strong short-term Support Cluster, the Lower Lows trend-line and the bottom of the 1H Channel Up. Being below the 1H MA50 (blue trend-line), the trend is right now neutral until one of the two levels breaks.
If the index breaks above the 1H MA50, we will turn bullish again, targeting 22200 (+5.70% from the current Low, the minimum % rise in the past month).
If it breaks below the Support Cluster, we will turn bearish, targeting the 1H MA200 (orange trend-line) at 20800.
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Tesla Inc. Stocks & Crypto: We Are All One!What one does, the rest follows.
Tesla (TSLA) hit bottom in January 2023. It has been moving within a rising channel, higher highs and higher lows since.
Volume was moving down until December 2024. The drop in volume was the preparation for a correction. Volume has been rising and 7-April 2025 produced the highest volume since February 2023.
Here is the thing, when the highest buying came in February 2023, it was the start of this major bullish dynamic, the rising channel. Now volume starts to rise again after a major low (a higher low by the way). This means that we are set to experience another phase of growth, reaching new highs compared to December 2024 and in December TSLA produced its All-Time High. This means that the current bullish wave, brand new, will end in a new ATH in a matter of months. Isn't that great?
Knowing that Tesla is growing and set to continue growing, we know that all related markets or those that have a positive correlation with this one will also grow; What one does, the rest follows.
Thanks a lot for your continued support.
Namaste.
Gold Market Update: Bears will target 3150 USD🏆 Gold Market Mid-Term Update
📉 Gold Drops: Prices dip as risk appetite grows and profit-taking kicks in.
🤝 U.S.-China Deal: 90-day tariff pause boosts USD, pressures gold.
📊 Tech Watch: Key support levels eyed by traders for entry points.
🔮 EUROTLX:4K Forecast?: Analysts still see path to $4,000 amid uncertainty.
⚠️ Recession Signal: Oil-gold gap hints at slowdown—bullish for gold.
🏠 Investment Shift: Gold now 2nd-best long-term U.S. investment (after real estate).
🌍 BRICS Buying: Emerging nations hoard gold to ditch dollar.
🛡️ $3,200 Holds: Gold maintains key support despite volatility.
📈 JP Morgan Bullish: EUROTLX:4K gold possible even with growth.
💰 Live Price: Gold at $3,253.40 (+0.52%) today.
📊 Technical Outlook Update
🏆 Bull Market Overview
▪️pullback in progress still
▪️3300 USD cleared by the BEARS
▪️market gapped down at open
▪️3300 is heavy resistance for now
▪️Compression on lower timeframes
▪️Flag on Flag Bearish pattern
▪️short-term expecting more losses
⭐️Recommended strategy
▪️Short Sell Rips/Rallies
▪️TP Bears 3150 USD
When to buy Crypto and when to sell The only measure I've found that seems to have some consistency to assign relative value to crypto is by comparing BTC futures performance VS Nasdaq Total Return...
When BTC futures are in deep discounts it is time to Buy, when in wide premiums, it is time to sell!
Right now it's time to sell!
Staircase seen in real chartsFor the most part OANDA:NAS100USD has exhibited a near perfect staircase up so far.
It does appear fairly extended right now, but with rotation out of safe havens into risk on assets again, what remains to be seen is how much fuel is in the tank, and how far can the tailwind take it.
NASDAQ: Time for a 4H technical correction.Nasdaq is almost overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 69.775, MACD = 371.830, ADX = 37.524) and has reached the top of its 4H Channel Up. The two HH that the pattern has both pulled back to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level before the 4H MA50 provided the necessary support for the next bullish wave. Consequently we expect a small correction to at least the 0.382 Fib next (TP = 20,675).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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We Have a Full Pattern into The Target BoxI am now looking for a 5-wave pattern to develop to the downside, followed by a 3-wave retrace, that in the coming weeks can take us back out of the Target box to the downside. Price must breach the 5578 area to give us any indication the pattern to the upside below is cracking.
NASDAQ broke above its 1D MA200 after 2 months! Target 22000.Nasdaq (NDX) broke today above its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in more than 2 months (since March 06), following the U.S. - Chine trade deal. This trend-line also had the March 26 rejection under its belt, which initiated the most aggressive part of the 'Trade War' correction.
The last time the index broke above its 1D MA200 on a similar pattern was when it was recovering after the bottom of the 2022 Inflation Crisis. The February 01 2023 break-out produced an instant rise to the 1.382 Fibonacci extension before a short-term correction to re-test the 1D MA200.
As a result, we expect 22000 (1.382 Fib ext) to come as early as this week before any discussions can be made for a new pull-back.
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