Market Re-Cap and Outlook for NEXT WEEKHere I am giving you a little insight as to what trades I am currently in, taken & looking to take for the week just gone and the week coming.
1 Winning trade on EU
1 Current open position on EU
EURGPB - Breakdown
AUDUSD - Breakdown
NZDUSD - Breakdown
Gold - Breakdown
If there are any pairs you would like me to share my feedback on give me a message and I will be happy to try and do so.
Thanks
Happy Hunting
Orderblocks
EURUSD - BreakdownApologies video is a bit rushed.
Wanted to get it done before the weekend arrived.
There's so much more to this video and entry reason that I have left out unintentionally like the fact we swept the Asia lows before creating a BoS. There are also a few other things like I have left out but without looking at the chart right now I cannot remember off the top of my head.
I will post the idea of this trade below so you can see that I was taking it before it played out.
Hope you all have a great weekend and a better trading week than you had this week.
Enjoy
P.S if you have any questions please do message
EURUSD, GBPUSD - Outlook for next weekEURUSD - So we have 2x 4 hour POI's (Points Of Interest). Will be looking at potential reversals at both POI's however, within the first POI we have an area of potential liquidity that could look to be taken before we make out move back to the upside.
Therefor, the second POI could look to be our more solid option for our buying options at some point next week.
GBPUSD - This pair looks to be building its liquidity now for potential trades to the upside as today on the lower TF's it was setting quite a few traps for the potential longs and the traders that would have been shorting the breaks below structure to the left.
If you have any questions for me please do let me know
EURUSD, GBPUSD & EURGBP analysisHere's my outlook on the 3 pairs mentioned in the title. Looking for more upside momentum after we have some sort of pullback into the premium discount prices.
Once we get some15min bearish internal orderflow on the lower Time Frames I will look to enter short term sell positions before looking to take longer term buys on the way back up.
Again, if I can be of any assistance please do let me know and I will be happy to help where I can.
EU SHORTS FOR TODAY___ Mount Olympus Capital says.I am looking for a short on the EURO. Price showing clear signs of bearish orderflow and structure with and signatures (accumulation manipulation and distribution).
Looking to target previous day and Asia session low!
LETS GET IT! and safe trading everyone.
SPY to $650 in January?SPY recently retraced to the bottom of our Magic Linear Regression Channel with a large 3%+ move. Today, there was a nice bounce bounce from the channel bottom, back up to yesterday's open. So, what's next for SPY. The Magic Linear Regression Channel shows upside potential to it's baseline back at its recent all-time highs, and the potential for a higher move to the $630-$650 range. However, there is also the potential for it to fall back through the channel. Since we've been in a bull market for awhile now, that channel break would have to happen more definitively in order for that to be a likely scenario.
We've recently introduced the Magic Candles PRO indicator, which shows high volume candles that have very little price movement. When paired with the Magic Linear Regression Channel on a 1 day chart, it tends to show reversals at key levels on the Magic Linear Regression Channel. However, because we had a large move down on Weds, Dec. 17th 2024, and a large move up on Friday, Dec. 20th 2024 and ended up at the open of Thurs., Dec. 18th 2024, we get a doji on the 2 day chart that shows a massive "volume hammer" signal not seen since 2019, 5 years ago.
This signals that we are on the verge of a large sustained move. Again, because we've been in a bull market, and there aren't any very strong signs that it is over, we suspect that the large sustained move will be to the upside, because of the signal. If the price breaks down out of the channel, then we'll be in for a nice downward ride. Until that happens, though, we're bullish as we approach the all-time high again, and all the way to the $630-$650 range.
SMCI to $60? When?!?In this video, I use the Magic Linear Regression Channel , Multi VWAP , and Magic Order Blocks indicators to build a case for a $60 SMCI target. In short, it might be a few months away. Using a linear regression channel starting on May 8th, 2024, and ending October 29th, 2024, we can see that the channel is respected at multiple levels.
In today's trading, we see a rejection from the Inner Fibonacci Level - Upper in the Magic Linear Regression Channel tool. I was expecting this a few days ago based on the projected channel.
With the Multi VWAP indicator we see that the price is currently above the 5-Day anchored VWAP (AVWAP). It can potentially continue to hold that and go through some consolidation before heading back to the top of the channel. At which point, it could reject or consolidate more.
I suspect that with the accounting issues behind them, SMCI price will continue to recover. However, above the upper channel lies the year-to-date anchored VWAP, which should be at around $60 by the time SMCI can get there. This will be a level of interest.
On the daily chart, we see that the 5D AVWAP gets respected with a bottom wick on the 15min chart that tags it almost perfectly at around $39. We also see an order block acting at support at that same level using the Magic Order Blocks indicator. That gives us further evidence that we could potentially have the 5D AVWAP holding price up as support during a period of consolidation.
Should SMCI continue its bullish momentum, there are two potential areas of consolidation - if not outright rejections - at the Inner Fibonacci Upper level and at the upper linear regression band. If it makes it through, the next target will be the YTD AVWAP.
Indentifying Bullish/Bearish Orderblocks & Mitigation Blocks Orderblocks and Mitigation Block Live Study - Looking at live example going back to early May of 2010. There was news on May 6th that caused the market to plunge but interestingly enough - Price Action manages to be find a floor around the Orderblocks indentified on the Daily, Weekly, and Monthly Charts (HTF)
ORDER BLOCK AND FAIR VALUE GAP SMART MONEY CONCEPT**Order Block**:
An order block is a specific price area on a financial chart where institutional traders have placed large buy or sell orders. These areas often lead to significant price movements and are used by traders to identify potential zones of support or resistance. Order blocks represent clusters of orders from big players like banks or hedge funds, signaling where major buying or selling interest lies. When price revisits these zones, it often reacts strongly, making them valuable for predicting price reversals or continuations.
**Fair Value Gap**:
A fair value gap (FVG) is a price range on a chart where there is an imbalance between buyers and sellers, often created during periods of high volatility or news events. This gap typically occurs when the market moves so quickly that trades do not fully fill, leaving a visible gap on the chart. Traders use fair value gaps to anticipate potential price retracements to these levels, as the market tends to revisit and fill these gaps over time, aligning price with its perceived fair value.
Both concepts are crucial in technical analysis for identifying key price levels where significant market activity is likely to occur.
MARKET STRUCT USING ICT CONCEPTThe Inner Circle Trader (ICT) concept in trading, developed by Michael J. Huddleston, offers a comprehensive approach to understanding and navigating market structure. ICT emphasizes the importance of market structure, which refers to the organization and arrangement of various market components, such as support and resistance levels, trends, and price patterns. This approach involves identifying key levels where institutional investors might be placing orders, understanding liquidity pools, and recognizing the behavior of smart money. By focusing on these elements, traders can better predict market movements, identify high-probability trade setups, and manage risks effectively. The ICT methodology combines technical analysis with a deep understanding of market dynamics to provide traders with a robust framework for making informed trading decisions.
SIMPLE ICT CONCEPTS FOR TRAADING SYNTHETIC INDICES The Inner Circle Trader (ICT) concept for trading Deriv synthetic indices involves using sophisticated market analysis techniques and proprietary trading strategies. It focuses on understanding market mechanics, price action, and order flow to make informed trading decisions. ICT strategies leverage advanced tools and ICT knowledge to predict synthetic market movements, optimizing entry and exit points for higher profitability and risk management.
FAIR VALUE GAP OR ORDER BLOCK ENTRYA fair value gap (FVG) and an order block entry are concepts used in technical analysis within financial markets to identify potential trading opportunities.
### Fair Value Gap (FVG)
A fair value gap refers to a price range on a chart where there is an imbalance between buyers and sellers, often resulting in a quick movement through this area without much trading activity. This gap can create a zone of interest where price may return to fill the gap, presenting a potential trading opportunity. Traders look for these gaps to predict price movements, expecting that the market will revisit these areas to achieve a fair value.
### Order Block Entry
An order block is a consolidation area where significant buying or selling has taken place, often by institutional traders. These blocks are typically identified by a cluster of orders that create a strong support or resistance level. When price returns to this level, it often reacts due to the presence of unfilled orders, providing a strategic entry point for traders. Order blocks are used to predict where the price might reverse or continue its trend, offering a high-probability entry signal based on historical price action.
Both concepts are used by traders to make informed decisions based on the past behavior of price and volume, aiming to identify areas where significant trading activity is likely to influence future price movements.
ORDER BLOCK CONFIRMATION ENTRY PART 2Sure! Here's another description of order block confirmation with a focus on practical application and detailed examples:
### Understanding Order Block Confirmation:
Order block confirmation is a technique used by traders to identify and validate significant price levels where large orders from institutional traders have been placed. These levels often act as strong support or resistance zones. Confirming an order block helps traders make informed decisions about entry and exit points in the market.
### Detailed Steps for Order Block Confirmation:
1. **Identify Potential Order Blocks:**
- **Bullish Order Block:** Look for a downtrend that ends with a strong bullish reversal, marked by one or more large bullish candlesticks.
- **Bearish Order Block:** Look for an uptrend that ends with a strong bearish reversal, identified by one or more large bearish candlesticks.
2. **Analyze Market Structure:**
- **Trend Context:** Determine whether the market is in an uptrend, downtrend, or sideways movement. This context helps in predicting the likelihood of the order block holding.
- **Key Levels:** Note the order block's alignment with significant support or resistance levels.
3. **Volume Analysis:**
- High volume during the formation of the order block is a strong indicator of institutional activity. Look for volume spikes that coincide with the large candlesticks forming the order block.
4. **Price Action Confirmation:**
- **Engulfing Patterns:** A bullish engulfing pattern at a potential bullish order block or a bearish engulfing pattern at a potential bearish order block can confirm the level.
- **Pin Bars and Rejection Candlesticks:** Candlesticks with long wicks (e.g., pin bars, hammers, shooting stars) at the order block level indicate strong rejection and confirm the presence of significant buying or selling interest.
- **Break and Retest:** Confirmation is stronger if the price breaks through the order block level and then retests it as support (for bullish order blocks) or resistance (for bearish order blocks).
5. **Indicator Confirmation:**
- **RSI (Relative Strength Index):** If the RSI shows overbought conditions at a bearish order block or oversold conditions at a bullish order block, it provides additional confirmation.
- **Moving Averages:** The interaction of price with moving averages (e.g., 50 EMA, 200 EMA) near the order block level can confirm its validity. A bounce off or crossover can be significant.
6. **Confluence of Factors:**
- Multiple confirmations such as Fibonacci retracement levels, pivot points, and trend lines aligning with the order block increase its reliability.
### Practical Examples:
1. **Bullish Order Block Confirmation:**
- Suppose the price of a stock is in a downtrend and reaches a level where it forms a large bullish candlestick, followed by increased volume.
- The RSI indicates oversold conditions.
- The price breaks above the identified order block and later retests this level, forming a bullish pin bar.
- This confluence of signals confirms the bullish order block, suggesting a potential entry point for a long position.
2. **Bearish Order Block Confirmation:**
- Consider a forex pair in an uptrend that hits a resistance level, forming a large bearish candlestick with a volume spike.
- The RSI shows overbought conditions.
- The price breaks below the identified order block and retests it, forming a bearish engulfing pattern.
- This setup confirms the bearish order block, indicating a potential entry point for a short position.
### Trade Execution and Management:
1. **Entry:** Based on the confirmed order block, place a buy order at the bullish order block or a sell order at the bearish order block.
2. **Stop-Loss:** Set stop-loss orders just below the bullish order block or above the bearish order block to manage risk.
3. **Take Profit:** Identify potential take-profit levels based on historical price action, nearby support/resistance levels, or using risk-reward ratios.
By following these detailed steps and examples, traders can effectively use order block confirmation to enhance their trading strategies and improve their chances of successful trades.
ORDER BLOCK CONFIMATION ENTRYOrder block confirmation is a concept used in technical analysis, particularly in the context of trading financial markets like forex, stocks, and cryptocurrencies. An order block is a significant price level where institutional traders have placed large orders, resulting in a concentration of buying or selling activity. Identifying and confirming these order blocks can help traders understand potential future price movements.
### Key Elements of Order Block Confirmation:
1. **Identification of Order Blocks:**
- **Bullish Order Blocks:** These occur when price action suggests strong buying interest. Typically, they are identified after a downtrend when a large bullish candlestick or a series of bullish candlesticks emerge, signaling strong buying pressure.
- **Bearish Order Blocks:** These are identified after an uptrend, marked by a large bearish candlestick or a series of bearish candlesticks, indicating strong selling pressure.
2. **Market Structure Analysis:**
- **Trend Analysis:** Determine the prevailing trend to contextualize the order block. In an uptrend, look for bullish order blocks; in a downtrend, look for bearish order blocks.
- **Support and Resistance Levels:** Order blocks often align with key support and resistance levels. Confirming these levels adds to the validity of the order block.
3. **Volume Analysis:**
- High trading volume at the order block can confirm the presence of institutional activity. Spikes in volume during the formation of the order block signal strong interest from large market participants.
4. **Price Action Confirmation:**
- **Engulfing Patterns:** A bullish or bearish engulfing pattern near the order block can confirm its validity.
- **Rejection Candlesticks:** Pin bars, hammers, or shooting stars at the order block level indicate strong rejection, confirming the order block.
- **Break and Retest:** Price breaking through the order block and then retesting it can serve as a confirmation. For a bullish order block, the price should break above and then retest the order block as support. For a bearish order block, the price should break below and then retest it as resistance.
5. **Indicator Confirmation:**
- **Relative Strength Index (RSI):** An overbought or oversold RSI at the order block can provide additional confirmation.
- **Moving Averages:** Crossovers or bounces off moving averages near the order block can corroborate the signal.
6. **Confluence Factors:**
- The more factors aligning with the order block (e.g., Fibonacci levels, pivot points, trend lines), the stronger the confirmation.
### Practical Steps for Traders:
1. **Identify Potential Order Blocks:**
- Look for significant price movements and areas where the price has previously shown strong support or resistance.
2. **Wait for Confirmation:**
- Use price action, volume spikes, and technical indicators to confirm the validity of the order block.
3. **Plan Your Trade:**
- Once confirmed, use the order block as an entry point, setting stop-loss orders below the block for bullish trades or above the block for bearish trades.
4. **Monitor and Manage:**
- Keep an eye on market conditions and be prepared to adjust your strategy if the order block is invalidated by new price action.
By carefully identifying and confirming order blocks, traders can gain insights into potential areas of strong market activity and make more informed trading decisions.
USD Index ( DXY, DX1! Fututres )... Wait & See!USD Index is in an interesting position, and could go either way. Let the market tip it's hand on Monday, and then trade USD pairs!
Check out my analysis and leave me a comment and/or feedback. I appreciate hearing from my viewers.
May profits be upon you.