Get started

Oscillators

The 3 types of trendSummary Introduction Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Conclusion Introduction Trends are not created equal, there are 3 types of trends, I am not a trend trader that much but I can identify trends and tell the difference. This is what I know about myself: 1- Strong trends Examples: Ways to define these strong trends - Eyesight - With a momentum indicator (not a fan) - With a trendline - With moving averages As you can see, there are not many pullbacks with this type of trend - once it pullsback it is a reversal often, so how best to participate in this? 2- Medium trends Not going as much in detail here, don't care so much. Plus you get the idea anyway. Medium trends are not as awesome, they get quite choppy. Just not as good to participate in, in my opinion. Examples: Same ways to define it, but trendlines have smaller angles, RSI not as high, and use EMA 50 rather than 20. Ideas to trade, similar with 1 big exception: 3- Weak trends Ooooh what's that smell? I could trade it like a consolidation with a bear bias (only go short) in a downtrend? NO! In this EURUSD example you can see tops go lower, then higher, then lower. It is not clear, super choppy. The price is generally going down, but there are no good entries. Unless you do not mind a risk reward of 1 while trading a daily chart... The thing that makes holding weeks > get in and out is you can get high risk rewards, cumulate uncorrelated positions (which reduces overall risk), hence increase your profit without having more risk.. (Bonus) The "I am going to zero" trend Summing up: About the 3/5 group of strategies I have posted: 1/5 (The 4 kinds of bottoms) = Supply & Demand 2/5 (Buying pullbacks style) = Trend following / Troll strategies 3/5 (Trend continuation breaks) = (Strong) Trend following
Education
by MrRenev
FIB, RSI, MACD, AND BREAKOUT PATTERNS ARE TRASH! (MUST WATCH!)I'm aware the title has offended you. Read through this post anyway, I'm sure I touch up on your complaints. Stop forming your identity around your strategy. Even I am not immune to this. it’s all too common to form a personal relationship with the tools you’re using to trade. Whether that’s the indicators on your chart, your Gann shooting star wave pattern Fibonacci double top, or your boutique breakout patterns. It doesn’t matter how bland, innovative, common it is or if it’s the “golden standard” everyone worships and trusts. I’m happy that you like it and found something you identify with. It should be nice and comfy for you to settle into that confirmation bias, “Mm, yes it is indeed a double top” as you scroll through the fifth page of the Tradingview ideas section, pinpointing the chart that agrees with you. There’s a better way to do things. I don’t care what you’re using, maybe, just maybe, there’s a way to improve your strategy. I can confirm this idea is seen as wildly offensive. Ask someone why their strategy works and they’ll cringe like you just asked them if their spouse is cheating. “How dare you question their effectiveness! I’ll let you know we have a long history together and I love them very much.” I’m sure you do, but have you noticed some of the warning signs? They’re all right there in front of you. It may not feel good when I ask, but if the signs are there and 3/4ths of marriages fail, it wouldn’t sit well with me if I didn’t speak up just to keep you comfy cozy. Analogies aside, your “spouse” is your strategy. The warning sign is that you keep on losing trades, blaming your loses on “volatility” without wanting to admit what the real problem is. Perhaps you’re still green for now, just wait for a larger sample size of a trade history. Much like your imaginary marriage, the odds are wildly against you. Why do you think 95 plus percent of traders fail? You can massage data however you like, the problem is at some point you decided to stop improving because you got confident. If you met a tribe in the wilderness who planted fish in their fields as “an offering to their gods” in order to grow bigger crops, what do you do? Do you keep quiet about their ways? Sure, their crops WILL grow larger because of this tradition, but not for the reasons they believe. Would providing them industrial fertilizer and a crop rotation plan improve their crop output? Absolutely, but that would require that they admit they’re wrong and would be contrary to their identity. You’d get the response “but it’s worked for us so far! What we’re using is a proven standard.” Their blind faith in their dogma would prevent them from seeing that maybe, just maybe their is a better way to do things. If you don’t know why something works, you need to be skeptical regardless of how effective it is. Don’t be satisfied with mediocrity, comfort and undeserved confidence will only get you so far. There will always be someone with more experience, money, knowledge, and connections than you. You’ve brought a knife to a gun fight and have decided not to pick up the gun because you got some lucky stabs in. What’s worse is this even isn’t a gunfight, it’s thermonuclear war between institutional investors. If you're a middle school basketball star, do you cry when you skin your knees after getting fouled when you chose to play street ball in downtown Detroit? No, because you should have known what you were getting into, and if you do cry, all the street ballers will tear you to shreds. If you don't want to play street ball and learn to play like everyone else does, go back to your middle school basketball court. If you can't understand why you keep getting hurt trading crypto and are unwilling to adopt the winning fighting style, go back to trading securities. Winners don't need to play by the rules of "golden standard" of TA.  What if the "golden standard" is only so because they're tools that make you predictable for people who know better? If you have the masses all trading the same information, that makes for predictable moves.  Predictable traders make for a predictable market. A predictable market makes for a profitable market. The only reason you've been given the "golden standard" is to provide liquidity for those with more buying power, resources, knowledge, experience and connections than you. Specifically concerning the crypto market, there are additional flaws. "There’s a general point here to make about standard oscillators like RSI: the numbers used for them basically assume conventional markets and typical oscillating ranges. They were not designed to describe dramatically trending coins. In such trends, they tend to go deep into “oversold”/“overbought” territory and persist. You may get several divergences before the one that actually reverses after exhaustion. I wouldn’t call it useless so much as having far lower predictive power than advertised. It’s also something so widely used that you can virtually guaranteed not to have an edge from that information." -acatwithcharts If you ARE interested in a better way to do things, I am inclined to think my findings aren't half bad. Click through the links below and in my signature to learn more about how I do things differently.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by DadShark
10
Correlation Coefficient + CCIPictured above is a graph of Royal Dutch Shell vs brent crude, the correlation coefficient between them, and the commodity channel index tracking the volume weighted moving average of Shell. I tested this indicator on a few energy stocks: RDS, MRO, BP and XOM. Negative correlation between brent crude and an energy stock coupled with an overbought CCI seems to give an indication of price reversal. Here we see two overbought CCI readings coupled with negative correlation, both followed by massive drops in the price of BCO and RDS. Likewise we see negative correlation coupled with upward CCI readings pointing to massive price rises in RDS. Seems to work on daily time frame as well but indicator length will need to be tweaked accordingly. Correlation coefficient going negative is an indication of pricing inefficiency and momentum potential, but does not give us an indication of price direction. The commodity channel index can give us a sense of where price momentum is pointed. Both put together give us a powerful indicator capable of foreshadowing both momentum and direction.
REducation
by Derivati_Capital
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (2/15/2019)Good morning, traders. Price is attempting to push its way through the descending wedge's resistance as H4 RSI is pushing through its own resistance. H4 MACD is curled up and nearing a bullish cross above centerline. As we can see, the green target, which is based on the height of the wedge, is near the previous swing high. Traders need to be cautious as price nears that area. A close above that swing high is what is needed. A wick above but close below prints a bearish SFP which will likely have price reversing. However, a close above that swing high opens up the targets I discussed yesterday as price begins closing above the pattern resistances. While anything is possible at all times, there is little-to-no reason to think price is ultimately headed down from here at this time. At the very least, we should see price move up toward $3900. A daily close above $3615 should make this much more likely as that gets price back above the daily pivot. I am still not a big fan of the possible IHS but have left it for those of you who are interested in it. BTCUSD Shorts may be finding a temporary bottom at the very least. More importantly, they are nearing the area where they have previously bounced and price headed down as a result. Just because it has happened before does not mean it will continue to happen, though, but it is something to keep an eye on. If Shorts happen to drop below that level this time around it may be an indication that the market is reversing. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD H1/D1 charts (2/12/2019)Good morning, traders. Price has continued within the flag and bounced off the 38.2% retracement on the D1 chart as I mentioned I was watching for yesterday. H1 is printing a short-term double bottom with a target of $3620, once price closes above the swing high of $3586 which would confirm it. H1 RSI is just under neutral at 47.3 and butting up against resistance, while H4 RSI has finally retreated to 52 as it bounced off the previous resistance area and is printing a descending broadening wedge, suggesting price may be readying itself to resume its upward momentum soon (as long as it holds). D1 RSI is holding bullishly around 52 while retesting resistance as support at this time as well. Price is sitting on the H4 21 EMA and just below the 21 EMA on the H1 while volume has been picking up in this area. This also puts price just below the daily pivot, so we need to see D1 price closing above that pivot to signal continued bullishness, though I really want to see price closing above the D1 TR's EQ of $3645. The more convincingly price can close above that level, the more bullish it becomes. However, if this level does not hold, I will be looking for the $3450/70 area to provide support. The pattern-based targets remain valid at this time. Ultimately, I am watching price within the pink descending broadening wedge. A move through the wedge's resistance provides a target above the flag's resistance which signals increasingly bullish likeliness if price can follow through beyond that target. That target happens to align with the D1 TR's EQ. However, a drop through the wedge's support signals, at the least, a test of the bottom of the local flag/EQ of the D1 descending channel. I see a lot of traders forcing entries right now. Don't. You should be waiting for price action to tell you which way to trade, not enter just to be in the market. The latter is the easiest way to lose money right after FOMO. BTCUSD longs and shorts are currently rising as a result. Volatility has also dropped off after the surge in action four days ago. Visible orders across the major spot exchanges and Bitmex show dominant demand right now which is a good sign if we can see an influx of buying. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
1