Sp500short
SP500 Weekly ReviewSo we took a loss on SP this week when we sold on the bearish rejection of the top trendline, attempting to catch the right shoulder.
Indices were tricky this week with trump but yet again our analysis was pinpoint for the buy scenario on the close above the invalid head with targets provided!
SP500- A new drop to 3k zone is my ideaAfter reaching an all time high at 3600, SP corrected to 3200 zone and now is in a correction of this first leg down.
I expect rallies to be caped at 3.5k zone and a new leg down can start from there.
My target for SP in the medium term is 3k zone but with upcoming elections I would be very careful with shorting US Indice
S&P 500 to break 3405-3415 to make a new HIGH? Otherwise BEARSS&P 500 futures are the leading indicator of the market's health and where we could be headed. Currently we saw the market pop right off the support structure form the 100-day EMA where institutional buying started to come in again.
There are 2 key levels we are watching for currently. The first is at the 3220 or so where the 100-day moving average and the institutional money started to come in again. The next is at the 3405 to 3415 where we have prior rejection for resistance.
Price is currently pinned between these two levels and we're wary of how these levels will be interacted with. The bears could take control at the 3405 again as the big money is expecting. However, we could just see the strong pop above and that alone will probably push us into a new ATH.
Where we will see optimism into the election. The other option is to see if the 3400 level holds out as strong resistance for sellers to enter the market and push price lower to break the 100-day moving average as anticipated.
The downside is the higher probability scenario because of big money selling coming into the market from volatility and uncertainty. The fact that it is unknown when the President will be chosen means that VIX is likely to increase and that a lot of traders and investors are moving to cash. There is a lot of repositioning and it seems like a lot of volatility coming into the market throughout the next few months which means we're probably going to see downside back under 3200. Which means the target will be 3135.
These ideas are for educational purposes only, this should not be taken as investment advice.
Weekly Market Focus 09-28: S&P500, WTI Crude, OJ, EUR, AUD, JPY
======================================= September 28, 2020 -------------------------------------------------------> 10-02-2020
S&P500 Trade Setup --------------------------------
S&P500 Trades can be found in this post -----------------
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WTI Crude OIl Trade Setup -----------------------
WTI Crude Oil Trades can be found in this post -----------------
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Orange Juice Trade Setup --------------------------------
Orange Juice Trades can be found in this post -----------------
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EURAUD Trade Setup --------------------------------
EURAUD Trades can be found in this post -----------------
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AUDJPY Trade Setup --------------------------------
AUDJPY Trades can be found in this post -----------------
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Other JPY Crosses -----------------
can be found in this post:
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SPY Hidden Bearish Divergence is BackVery clear on the 1 hr and now 4 hr charts for some hidden bearish divergence (possible continuation of trend) which was selling. We hit the .382 fib from previous high to low. I am buying puts for my next target which is the .382 fib to the downside around 306-305 area.
It is possible that we move slightly higher to the .50 or even hit a full measured move of the possible falling wedge but i have what i need to start shorting
Just a hick up on the way to 4k?
We think not. Our primary expectation is, that the SP500 is geared for a bigger correction as indicated on the chart. Our target is the region around 2900 points. From there we expect new all time highs in the long run. Right now the bears should keep the index below 3502 points. If we see a break out above this resistance our primary scenario is no longer valid. The outcome would be quotations above 3600. The following days will be crucial as we are approaching the target area for wave B in orange, where the resversal should happen.
What do you think, new ATHs or drop below 3k?
Happy Trading !
3200 are coming! The fear of a new corona wave swept through Wall Street on Monday, and the S&P500 fell back to levels from early August. The downward trend that has been going on for weeks since the high in the 3600-point range is thus continuing and reached our target zone.
However, further turbulence must still be taken into consideration. On the one hand, expectations regarding the resilience of the US economy are partially too high. On the other hand, the risks posed by the turmoil through the upcoming presidential election in early November are often underestimated. Further, the dispute over the successor to the late Constitutional Court judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg (aka Notorious RBG) could occupy the Senate so much that an agreement on a new economic stimulus program that has long been hoped for could be delayed for weeks.
Even though the Market reached the first target box, a lower level in the 3200 points range still needs to be expected before the S&P500 climbs back up. In both scenarios, we anticipate a bounce to at least 3440 points. Should the bulls not push through the resistance between 3434 – 3501 points, significantly lower quotations in the range of 2800 points become the next target.
In summary, we expect the S&P500 to bounce back toward 3430 points. Should the bulls not push through 3434 – 3501 points, a significant downward move towards 2800 points must be anticipated, bevor the decline since the highs is completed.
What do you think? Are you a buyer or a seller? Feel free to share your work and let us know in the comments section!
Wishing you all successful trades.
It's Monday, not doomsday! ☕
Starting the week, the S&P500 continues the primary expectation and reaches the first target area for the current decline. On Sunday, the U.S. reported 32,186 new coronavirus cases, and several European countries have also seen a steady increase in COVID 19 cases over the past 24 hours spreading pessimism amongst investors. The World Health Organization predicts that daily coronavirus deaths in Europe will increase in October and November, raising concerns about a possible second lockdown in Europe. Meanwhile, several major banks have reportedly transferred large amounts of illegal funds over a period of almost two decades. HSBC, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, Standard Chartered, and Bank of New York Mellon are among the banks involved in the report.
The minimum target for the current decline remains within the range of 3200 points. Below 3049 points, the way is paved for significantly lower quotations in the range of 2800 points. Since we expect new all-time highs in the long term, we will use the current drop to open long positions and thus position ourselves for the next rally.
In conclusion, we expect the current drop to reach the area of 3200 points before a bounce can be expected. We give the alternative scenario a 38% probability. The primary expectation remains that the index will reach a lower level of 2800 points, which is confirmed below 3049 points. However, in both scenarios, we expect at least a corrective bounce from the yellow target box, which will push the market back up towards 3440 points.
Grab some coffee, be awesome, and enjoy your trading day!
Can we gain 2.2% on FridayLooks like at least one more volatile day. This week has not completed gone as planned but it has been close. I still think we have to finish out Minor wave B and this is possible in the early afternoon.
Now while this is possible, finishing up at the level my program has projected might be a stretch. I now have 3 possible target zones for B's finish. The most accurate zone says we could gain 70 points at the height of trading tomorrow. This is based off of us currently trading in Minuette wave 3 of Minute wave C in Minor wave B.
Time to watch the roller coaster play out. If this is accurate, I do expect the final Minor wave (C) to take us below 3310. If you like options, some 1-3 week out puts could be interesting.
Happy hunting!
S&P 500 is not looking good up there! Let's have a look everyoneSo S&P 500 is not looking good on the weekly chart right now.
We got a bull run in 2020 up until 3600 and closed the candle with a long wick, which is bearish in my dictionary.
So if we start to correct right now, let's check the trend.
The Trend is broken by this week. It was not healthy as you can see. What says the indicators?
RSI is since 2018 in a bearish divergence to the actual price.
Macd is also interesting, we are days before a bearish crossing of both lines and as we all know, when the cross happens, the price is already down, so we must see in our crystal balls.
I also got for today my lovely Market Bottom Finder. As you can see the green shows the market on a volatility low end and you can see also macd and rsi showing the same things. A nice indicator to harden your buying intention. So as of now the indicators shows us low volatility, which means we are sitting at a beginning of a wonderful roller coaster.
Are you ready for the action? : )
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Tesla Falls After Stock Sales And S&P500 RejectionAs says Investing catalyst for the liquidation is largely Tesla shares, which plunged more than 13% after saying it completed the sale of $ 5 billion in common stock on Friday.
The stock price was also under pressure with Standard & Poor’s announcement on Friday that it would not be listed on the S&P 500 index for the time being. The announcement disappointed hopes that the passively managed money tracking the S&P 500 would be forced to buy the shares of Elon Musk's company to fulfill its investment mandates.
If Tesla opens at its current level, it would be about 25% below its historical record at the beginning of the month, but still about 30% above where it was when the wave of speculation about the inclusion of the S&P 500 started.
SP500 (Y20.P4.E1).Still bullish but a correction taking placeHi All,
This is a continuation of my previous post which discussed the correction that is likely to happen soon, now we have it.
I'm still sticking to my original thoughts that this price action will move towards the average of this channel and in this case we have:
a) support at the previous resistance;
b) confluence with the daily 21/34 ema;
c) channel bottom or trend line which shows we have 2, depicting a deviation of 1 and 2 of the channel. Price was over extended represented from the deviation of 1;
d) fib. level at a number of levels;
e) indicators still show downward pressure on the 8 hr and daily;
My interest with the SP500 and Gold is from a crypto perspective, as they have direct correlation, with crypto being more volatile, better opportunities in terms of % gains.
A few days ago, I saw it coming with that bearish candle on the 4 hrly followed by more;
Today's chart on the 4 hrly;
Regards,
S.Sari
BTC CHART
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ES - Expected Price ActionThis is what i am expecting to see. This is the daily chart and i think this can go up to end of September. However, if it doesn't work until mid Sept, then we need to update the trend.
My ES target is $2500 but it's up to economy and covid.
This is not a financial or investment advice.
SP500 get ready for Deflation Strong dollar is comming off and Big Bubble at the markets at the moment getting ready for a recession, february wasnt the true recession as many think we still need another deflation move before inflation truly begins, market is not healthy when its moving up without any wave down or pullback
Watch price action on lower timeframes to short it after a retest~
Good luck