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Trading at the Market OpenTrading at the Market Open The market open marks a critical juncture in the financial world, presenting a unique blend of opportunities and challenges for traders. This article explores the essence of trading at the open across stocks, forex, and commodities. It delves into the heightened volatility and liquidity characteristic of this period, offering insights and strategies to navigate these early market hours effectively, setting the stage for trading opportunities. What Does the Open Mean in Stocks, Forex, and Commodities? The open signifies the start of the trading day for various financial markets. It's a time when trading activity surges, marked by a rush of orders that have accumulated since the previous close. In stock markets, this includes shares, indices, and Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). The influx of orders often leads to significant price movements as the market absorbs overnight news and global economic developments. For forex and commodity markets, the open can vary by region, reflecting their 24-hour nature. This period is crucial for setting the tone of the trading day, offering insights into sentiment and potential trends. Traders closely watch the market open to gauge the strength of these movements, which can indicate broader market trends or sector-specific shifts. Volatility and Liquidity at Market Open Trading at the open is often marked by enhanced volatility and liquidity. Heightened volatility is primarily due to the influx of orders accumulated overnight, reacting to various global events and news. As traders and investors assimilate this information, rapid price movements are common, especially in the first few minutes of the session. These price fluctuations can present both opportunities and risks for traders. Increased liquidity, which refers to the ease with which assets can be bought or sold without causing significant price movements, is also a characteristic of the open. A higher number of market participants during this period may result in better order execution and tighter bid-ask spreads, particularly in highly liquid markets like forex and major stock indices. What to Know Before the Market Opens In terms of things to know before the stock market opens, it's essential to review the overnight and early morning news that can affect stocks. This includes company earnings reports, economic data releases, and geopolitical events. Traders also check pre-market trading activity to gauge sentiment and potential opening price movements. For forex and commodities, understanding global events is crucial. Developments in different time zones, like policy changes by central banks or shifts in political scenarios, can significantly impact these markets. Additionally, reviewing the performance of international markets can provide insights, as they often influence the US open. It's also vital to analyse futures markets, as they can indicate how stock indices might open. Lastly, around the forex, commodity, and stock market openings, indicators and other technical analysis tools applied to the previous day can also offer valuable context for the day ahead. Market Open in Different Time Zones Market open times vary globally due to different time zones, significantly impacting trading strategies. For instance, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) opens at 9:30 AM Eastern Time, which corresponds to different times in other parts of the world. For traders in London, this translates to an afternoon session, while for those in Asian markets like Tokyo, it's late evening. Forex, operating 24 hours a day during weekdays, see overlapping sessions across different regions. For example, when the Asian trading session is concluding, the European session begins and later overlaps with the North American session. Such global interconnectivity ensures that forex markets are active round the clock, offering continuous trading opportunities but also requiring traders to be mindful of time zone differences and their impact on liquidity and volatility. Strategies for Trading at Market Open Trading at market open requires strategies that can handle rapid price movements across all markets. Here are some effective approaches: - Pay Attention to Pre-Market Trends: This helps traders assess how a stock might behave at the market open. If a stock is fading from post-market highs, it might be wise to wait for a trend change before entering​​. - Gap and Go Strategy: This involves focusing on stocks that gap up on positive news at market open, an indicator of potential further bullishness. Traders look for high relative volume in pre-market and enter trades on a break of pre-market highs. This strategy is fast-paced and requires quick decision-making​​. - Opening Range Breakout (ORB): The ORB strategy uses the early trading range (high and low) to set entry points for breakout trades across all types of assets. The breakout from this range, typically the first 30 to 60 minutes of the session, often indicates the price direction for the rest of the session. Time frames like 5-minute, 15-minute, and 30-minute are commonly used for ORB​​. - Gap Reversal: The gap reversal method is used when the price creates a gap, but then the range breaks in the opposite direction. If the gap is bullish and the price breaks the lower level of the opening range, it signals a gap reversal. The same concept applies to bearish gaps but in reverse. The Bottom Line In essence, understanding unique features of market open trading is vital for those participating in stock, forex, and commodity markets. The opening moments are characterised by heightened volatility and liquidity, driven by global events and sentiment. However, savvy traders may capitalise on these early market dynamics with effective strategies. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:MSFTEducation
by FXOpen
1
What Is Random Walk Theory and Its Implications in Trading? What Is Random Walk Theory and Its Implications in Trading? Random walk theory argues that market prices move erratic, making it difficult to analyse past data for an advantage. It suggests that technical and fundamental analysis provide little to no edge, as prices instantly reflect all available information. While some traders embrace this idea, others challenge it. This article explores the theory, its implications, criticisms, and what it means for traders navigating financial markets. What Is Random Walk Theory? Random walk theory reflects the idea that financial markets move erratic, making it impossible to analyse past price data for an advantage. The theory argues that price changes are random and independent, meaning past movements don’t influence future direction. This challenges both technical and fundamental analysis, arguing traders who attempt to time the market are essentially guessing. The concept was first introduced by Maurice Kendall in 1953, who found no meaningful patterns in stock prices. Later, Burton Malkiel popularised it in A Random Walk Down Wall Street (1973), arguing that a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a stock list would perform as well as professional traders. The underlying principle is that markets are efficient, instantly reflecting all available information. The theory states that prices truly follow a random path, so a trader analysing charts or company reports has no statistical edge. It’s like flipping a coin—the next move is unrelated to the last. This has major implications: active trading strategies become questionable, and passive investing (e.g., index funds) may be a more logical approach. However, while randomness can explain short-term price movements, longer-term trends still emerge. Factors like liquidity, institutional flows, and investor psychology create periods where price action deviates from pure randomness. This is where the debate arises—are markets entirely random, or do trends exist that skilled traders can take advantage of? Understanding random walk theory helps frame this debate, offering insight into why some traders dismiss traditional analysis while others continue searching for patterns in price action. Theoretical Foundations and Key Assumptions The random walk hypothesis is based on mathematical models and probability, arguing that financial markets follow a stochastic process—where future price movements are independent of past trends. It builds on several key principles that shape how economists and traders view market efficiency and price behaviour. Market Efficiency and Information Absorption A core assumption of random walk models is that markets are efficient, meaning all available information is already reflected in asset prices. If new data emerges, prices adjust instantly, making it impossible to gain an edge through analysis. This aligns with the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), which classifies efficiency into three forms: - Weak form: Prices already reflect past movements, rendering technical analysis ineffective. - Semi-strong form: Fundamental data (e.g., earnings reports) is priced in immediately, limiting the usefulness of research. - Strong form: Even insider information is priced in, meaning no trader has an advantage. Brownian Motion and Stochastic Processes The theory borrows from Brownian motion, a model describing random movement, often used in random walk algorithms to simulate stock price fluctuations. Prices are treated as a series of independent events, much like molecules colliding in a gas. No Clear Patterns If prices truly follow a random walk, trends and cycles do not exist in a statistically significant way. This challenges traders who attempt to use historical data to analyse future movements. Implications for Traders and Investors If random walks in trading are truly the norm, then analysing market movements using historical price data is no more effective than flipping a coin. This has significant implications for both traders and long-term investors. For traders relying on technical analysis, random walk theory presents a major problem. If price changes are independent, then tools like support and resistance, trendlines, and moving averages hold no real value. The same applies to fundamental analysis—if all available information is instantly priced in, then even detailed financial research doesn’t offer an edge. This would mean day traders and swing traders aren’t consistently able to generate higher returns than the broader market. It’s why proponents of the theory often argue that attempting to time the market is a losing battle in the long run. However, many supporters of the random walk theory advocate for passive investing, arguing that since, for example, individual stock movements are erratic, holding a diversified index fund is a more rational approach. Instead of trying to outperform the market, investors simply track it, reducing costs associated with frequent trading. Criticism and Counterarguments While random walk theory argues that market movements are independent, real-world trading data argues that markets are not entirely random. Critics point to patterns, inefficiencies, and the effectiveness of certain trading strategies as evidence that price action isn’t purely a coin flip. Market Inefficiencies Exist One of the biggest challenges to random walk theory is that markets display recurring inefficiencies. Certain price behaviours, like momentum effects, mean reversion, and seasonal trends, suggest that past movements do have an impact on future price action. For example: - Momentum strategies: Studies show that assets that have performed well over the past three to twelve months tend to continue in the same direction. If price action were purely random, these trends wouldn’t exist. - Earnings reactions: Stock prices often drift in the direction of an earnings surprise for weeks after the announcement. If markets were perfectly efficient, all adjustments would happen instantly. Real Results Random walk theory suggests that no trader can systematically outperform the market over time. Yet, some fund managers and proprietary traders have done exactly that. Warren Buffett’s long-term track record is often cited as evidence that skill, not just luck, plays a role in investing and trading. Similarly, hedge funds employing quantitative strategies have consistently generated returns, challenging the idea that price movements are entirely random. The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis A more flexible alternative is Andrew Lo’s Adaptive Markets Hypothesis, which seeks to reconcile the EMH’s claim that markets are rational and efficient with behavioural economists’ argument that markets are, in reality, irrational and inefficient. Instead of being entirely random, markets evolve based on participants’ actions, allowing patterns to emerge. While random walk theory provides a useful framework, real market behaviour often deviates from its assumptions, leaving room for traders to find potential opportunities beyond pure randomness. Practical Considerations for Traders Even if markets exhibit randomness in the short term, traders still need a structured approach to analysing price action and managing risk. While random walk theory challenges traditional methods, it doesn’t mean traders should abandon analysis altogether. Instead, it highlights the importance of probabilistic thinking, risk control, and understanding market conditions. Short-Term vs. Long-Term Price Behaviour Markets may behave randomly on a daily or weekly basis, but longer-term trends can emerge due to liquidity shifts, institutional positioning, and macroeconomic factors. Traders focusing on short-term moves often work with probabilities, using statistical models and historical tendencies to assess risk and potential trade opportunities. Risk Management in an Uncertain Market If price movements are largely unpredictable, risk control becomes even more important. Traders typically limit their exposure using stop losses, position sizing, and diversification to avoid being caught on the wrong side of market volatility. Instead of focusing on certainty, they manage the probability of different outcomes. The Role of Quantitative Strategies While traditional chart patterns may be questioned under random walk theory, quantitative and algorithmic strategies analyse large datasets to identify inefficiencies. High-frequency trading firms, for example, exploit microsecond price discrepancies that aren’t visible to the human eye. Rather than proving whether markets are fully random, traders adapt by testing, refining, and adjusting their strategies based on what works in real conditions. The most experienced traders accept uncertainty but structure their approach around probabilities and risk management. The Bottom Line Random walk theory challenges the idea that past price movements provide an edge, arguing that markets move erratically. While some traders accept this and focus on passive investing, others analyse inefficiencies to find potential opportunities. FAQ What Is the Random Walk Theory? Random walk theory suggests that asset prices move unpredictably, with past movements having no influence on future direction. It argues that markets are efficient, meaning all available information is instantly reflected in prices. This challenges the idea that traders can consistently outperform the market using technical or fundamental analysis. What Is the Meaning of the Random Walk Fallacy? Critics of the theory argue that the random walk fallacy is the mistaken belief that financial markets move in a completely random manner, disregarding factors such as fundamental analysis, technical patterns, and behavioural finance that can influence price trends. This misconception may cause traders to overlook potential opportunities for strategic analysis. What Are the Criticisms of Random Walk Theory? Critics argue that markets display patterns, inefficiencies, and behavioural biases that contradict pure randomness. Studies on momentum, mean reversion and liquidity effects show that past price movements do influence future trends. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:MSFTEducation
by FXOpen
1
What Is Market Capitulation, and How Can You Trade It?What Is Market Capitulation, and How Can You Trade It? Market capitulation occurs when investors collectively surrender to market fears, leading to a sharp decline in asset prices. This article delves into the mechanics of capitulation, how to identify it, and ways to trade effectively during these tumultuous times. Understanding Market Capitulation Market capitulation refers to a phenomenon where a large number of investors simultaneously give up on the market, leading to a rapid and substantial decline in asset prices. This mass surrender is driven primarily by panic and fear of further losses. Capitulation often marks the peak of a bearish trend and is typically characterised by a significant spike in trading volumes and sharp price declines. Stock capitulation occurs when investors, overwhelmed by fear and uncertainty, rush to sell their assets to avoid further losses. This behaviour is often triggered by prolonged market downturns or significant economic events. For instance, during the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, the S&P 500 experienced a nearly 5% drop in a single day, a classic example of market capitulation. This event led to a subsequent 17% rebound in the index over the following week, highlighting how capitulation can precede a market turnaround. Psychologically, capitulation represents the point where investor sentiment shifts from hope to despair. The collective mindset of "cutting losses" leads to a cascade of selling pressure, pushing prices to extreme lows. The intensity of selling can be so severe that it wipes out significant market value in a very short period. While capitulation can be daunting, it also presents opportunities. For contrarian investors and traders, these periods of panic selling can offer attractive entry points. As prices plummet, fundamentally strong assets may become undervalued, providing a chance to buy at lower prices. However, caution is essential as markets can remain volatile, and further declines are possible before a sustained recovery takes hold. Identifying Market Capitulation Identifying market capitulation involves recognising several key indicators that signify a dramatic surge in selling pressure and a sharp decline in asset prices. Here are the most notable indications to look for: Steep Price Decline Capitulation is typically associated with a rapid and substantial drop in asset prices. This sharp decline occurs as panic selling accelerates, pushing prices down swiftly​, often with large candles and minimal wicks. High Trading Volume During capitulation, there is often a significant spike in trading volume as investors rush to sell their holdings. This increase in volume is a key signal that a large number of market participants are exiting their positions simultaneously​. Extreme Bearish Sentiment Market sentiment during capitulation is overwhelmingly negative. News and investor sentiment indicators turn highly pessimistic, contributing to the panic and further driving down prices​. Technical Indicators Various technical analysis tools can help identify capitulation: - Volume Oscillator and On-Balance Volume (OBV): These indicators track changes in volume and can signal when selling pressure is peaking. A sharp decrease in these indicators often accompanies capitulation​. - Candlestick Patterns: Patterns like the hammer candlestick, which shows a recovery from intraday lows, and other patterns like the three white soldiers, can indicate that the market may have reached a bottom. The presence of such patterns, especially when accompanied by high volume, suggests a potential reversal​. - Bollinger Bands: These bands plot 2 standard deviations above and below a moving average. During capitulation, prices often touch or fall below the lower band, which indicates extreme selling conditions and potential oversold levels. This is especially true if the price falls beyond 3 standard deviations. - Average True Range (ATR): The ATR is an indicator that’s used to measure market volatility. A sudden, sharp increase in ATR during a downtrend can signal capitulation as it reflects the heightened panic and large price movements typical of such periods​. Exhaustion of Selling Capitulation often marks the point where selling pressure exhausts. This occurs when most investors who intend to sell have done so, leaving fewer sellers in the market. This depletion of sellers can indicate that a bottom is near and that a reversal may be imminent. The Impact of Market Capitulation on Markets Market capitulation has significant effects on financial markets, influencing both short-term and long-term trends. Short-Term Impact Immediately following capitulation, markets often experience extreme volatility and uncertainty. The intense selling pressure often drives asset prices sharply lower, causing values to drop significantly below their intrinsic worth. This phase is characterised by wild price swings as the market seeks a new equilibrium. The pervasive negative sentiment and widespread fear can further exacerbate the situation; across a broader downward move, there can be multiple points of capitulation with high volatility surrounding these additional selloffs. Long-Term Implications Over the long term, capitulation often marks the bottom of a market downturn. As the selling pressure diminishes and fewer investors remain to sell, the market begins to stabilise. This stabilisation allows new investors to enter the market, often leading to a gradual recovery in asset prices. However, it is essential to recognise that not every capitulation results in an immediate market reversal. Some markets may continue to decline or consolidate before a sustained recovery takes hold, with these new investors falling prey to the same fear-driven trading as another potential capitulation occurs. Psychological and Sentimental Effects Capitulation also has a lasting impact on investor sentiment. The severe downturn and associated losses can create a long-term negative perception of the affected assets, causing investors to remain cautious even after the market begins to recover. This psychological impact can lead to reduced trading volumes and prolonged periods of low investor confidence​. How to Trade Around a Market Capitulation Event Trading around a market capitulation event can be challenging due to the difficulty in accurately identifying capitulation in real-time. Capitulation often becomes clear only in hindsight, which complicates the process of trading or anticipating it effectively​. Avoiding the Falling Knife After identifying potential capitulation—characterised by a sharp price drop, likely on increased volume, and backed by extreme bearish sentiment—,it's typically unwise to try and buy during the initial plunge. The sharp decline often leads to further drops, even if they are less severe. Trying to "catch the falling knife" can potentially result in further losses as prices continue to fall​. Taking a Short Position During a Dead Cat Bounce One of traders’ approaches is to take a short position during a "dead cat bounce" or brief pullback before another downward leg. However, this strategy carries a less favourable risk/reward ratio because it involves selling low with the intention of selling lower. This might be effective but requires precise timing and strong risk management​. Waiting for Stability The most prudent strategy is often to wait until market volatility subsides and a bottom appears to form. Signs of a market bottom include the price overcoming a previous swing high or breaking through a prior level of resistance. This indicates a potential shift in market sentiment​, offering the trader an opportunity to buy low and sell high with a much more favourable risk-reward profile. Using Confluence in Analysis Combining different forms of analysis can provide greater confidence in identifying a market bottom. For example, if prices fall to a key support level or the decline seems disproportionately sharp compared to fundamentals, it might indicate an oversold condition. Momentum indicators and moving averages can also help confirm potential reversal points​. Risk Management Strong risk management practices are crucial. Limiting position sizes and always adhering to a stop loss can potentially prevent severe losses if the market experiences another leg down. This means that traders can potentially protect themselves against unexpected volatility and further declines​. Common Mistakes Traders Make During Market Capitulation Navigating market capitulation is challenging due to the extreme volatility and widespread panic that characterise these events. Here are some specific mistakes that traders frequently make during market capitulation: Panic Selling One of the most common mistakes is succumbing to panic and selling off assets hastily. During capitulation, the market is driven by extreme fear, and many traders sell to avoid further losses. This emotional response can lead to selling at the lowest point, locking in significant losses and missing out on potential rebounds once the market stabilises​. Holding onto Losing Positions Traders often make the mistake of holding onto a losing position, hoping for a reversal. When a trader holds a long position and witnesses market capitulation, the instinct might be to wait for the market to recover. However, this can lead to further losses as the asset's value continues to decline. Instead of cutting losses early, some traders let the losses accumulate, which can deplete their capital and limit future trading opportunities. This contradicts the previous point, and you may be confused about whether you sell or hold onto the trade. In any case, you will face a decision to either sell or hold on to their position if the capitulation is severe and protracted. It will always depend on the context and fundamental reason behind the capitulation, it’s worth noting that stocks generally recover over time. Trying to Time the Bottom Attempting to time the market bottom during capitulation is exceedingly difficult and can easily lead to additional losses. Capitulation typically involves sharp price declines and increased volatility, making it challenging to determine the exact bottom. Traders who try to catch the falling knife may find themselves buying into a market that continues to drop​. Overexposing Positions Another mistake is overexposing oneself to high-risk positions during periods of extreme market volatility. Instead of taking bolder positions, traders are best served to limit their exposure with smaller positions, stop losses, a diversified portfolio, and more judicious entries. It's essential to maintain a balanced approach and avoid putting too much capital into volatile trades​. The Bottom Line Understanding and navigating market capitulation can be challenging but offers potential opportunities for informed traders. By recognising key indicators and avoiding common mistakes, traders can better manage their strategies during these volatile periods. For a robust trading experience, consider opening an account with FXOpen to leverage these insights and trade with a broker you can trust. FAQs What Is Capitulation in the Stock Market? The capitulation meaning in the stock market refers to the moment when investors and traders, overwhelmed by fear and panic due to a prolonged decline in stock prices, decide to sell their holdings at any price to stop further losses. This mass selling leads to a sharp and rapid drop in stock prices. The term is derived from the military concept of surrender, indicating that investors are giving up on their positions. Is Capitulation Bullish or Bearish? Capitulation is both bullish and bearish. It is bearish during the actual event, as it involves widespread panic selling and a significant drop in stock prices. However, it can be bullish afterward, as it often marks the end of a severe downtrend and the beginning of a recovery or rally. This is because the selling pressure is exhausted, and buyers start to step in, finding attractive entry points. How Does Capitulation Work? Capitulation works through a cycle of fear and panic. Initially, as prices decline, some investors start selling to cut their losses. This selling pressure causes prices to drop further, leading more investors to panic and sell their holdings. This cycle continues until the majority of investors have sold their positions, leading to a sharp decline in prices. Eventually, the market stabilises as the selling pressure diminishes, often followed by a recovery. What Are Signs of Capitulation? Signs of capitulation include a sharp decline in prices, high trading volumes, extreme bearish sentiment, and market exhaustion, where selling pressure diminishes, stabilising the market. What Is Capitulation in Crypto*? Capitulation in the cryptocurrency market* follows a similar pattern to that in the stock market. It occurs when crypto* investors, driven by fear and panic due to a prolonged decline in prices, sell their holdings en masse, leading to a sharp drop in prices. This can be triggered by negative news, regulatory actions, or broader market downturns. *Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:GOOGLEducation
by FXOpen
1
What Is the January Effect on Stock Markets and What Traders Do?What Is the January Effect on Stock Markets and What Traders Do? The January effect has long fascinated traders, highlighting a seasonal pattern where stock prices, especially smaller ones, tend to rise at the start of the year. But what drives this phenomenon, and how do traders respond? This article dives into the factors behind the January effect, its historical performance, and its relevance in today’s markets. What Is the January Effect? The January effect is a term used to describe a seasonal pattern where stock prices, particularly those of smaller companies, tend to rise during January. This phenomenon was first identified in the mid-20th century by Sidney B. Wachtel and has been widely discussed by traders and analysts ever since as one of the best months to buy stocks. The effect is most noticeable in small-cap stocks, as these tend to show stronger gains compared to larger, more established companies. Historically, this uptick in January has been observed across various stock markets, though its consistency has diminished in recent years. At its core, the January effect reflects a combination of behavioural, tax-related, and institutional factors. Broadly speaking, the phenomenon is linked to a surge in buying activity at the start of the year. After December, which often sees tax-loss selling as traders offload poorly performing stocks to reduce taxable gains, January brings renewed buying pressure as these funds are reinvested. Additionally, optimism about the new year and fresh portfolio allocations can amplify this trend. While the January effect was more pronounced in earlier decades, changes in trading patterns and technology have made it less consistent. Yet, it still draws attention, particularly from traders looking for seasonal trends in the market. Historical Performance and Data Studies have provided empirical support for the stock market’s January effect. For instance, research by Rozeff and Kinney in a 1976 study analysed data from 1904 to 1974 and found that average stock returns in January were significantly higher than in other months. Additionally, a study by Salomon Smith Barney observed that from 1972 to 2002, small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks in January stock market history by an average of 0.82%. However, the prominence of the January effect has diminished in recent decades. Some studies indicate that while January has occasionally shown strong performance, it is not consistently the well-performing month. This decline may be attributed to increased market efficiency and the widespread awareness of the effect, leading investors to adjust their strategies accordingly. Some believe that “as January, so goes the year.” However, Fidelity analysis of the FTSE 100 index from its inception in 1984 reveals mixed results. Out of 22 years when the index rose in January, it continued to produce positive returns for the remainder of the year on 16 occasions. Conversely, in the 18 years when January returns were negative, the index still gained in 11 of those years. Check how small-cap stocks behave compared to market leaders. Factors Driving the January Effect on Stocks The January effect is often attributed to a mix of behavioural, institutional, and tax-related factors that create a unique environment for stock market activity at the start of the year. Here’s a breakdown of the key drivers behind this phenomenon: Tax-Loss Selling At the end of the calendar year, many traders sell underperforming stocks to offset gains for tax purposes. This creates selling pressure in December, especially on smaller, less liquid stocks. When January arrives, these same stocks often experience renewed buying as traders reinvest their capital, pushing prices higher. Window Dressing by Institutions Institutional investors, such as fund managers, often adjust portfolios before year-end to make them look more attractive to clients, a practice called "window dressing." In January, they may rebalance portfolios by purchasing undervalued or smaller-cap stocks, contributing to price increases. New Year Optimism Behavioural psychology plays a role too. January marks a fresh start, and traders often approach the market with renewed confidence and optimism. This sentiment can lead to increased buying activity, particularly in assets perceived as undervalued. Seasonal Cash Inflows January is typically a time for inflows into investment accounts, as individuals allocate year-end bonuses or begin new savings plans. These funds often flow into the stock market, adding liquidity and supporting upward price momentum. Market Inefficiencies in Small-Caps Smaller companies often experience less analyst coverage and institutional attention, leading to so-called inefficiencies. These inefficiencies can be magnified during the January effect, as increased demand for these stocks creates sharper price movements. Why the January Effect Might Be Less Relevant The January effect, while historically significant, has become less prominent in modern markets. A key reason for this is the rise of market efficiency. As markets have become more transparent and accessible, traders and institutional investors have identified and acted on seasonal trends like the January effect, reducing their impact. In financial markets, the more a pattern is exploited, the less reliable it becomes over time. Algorithmic trading is another factor. Advanced algorithms can analyse seasonal trends in real-time and execute trades far more efficiently than human traders. This means the potential price movements associated with the January effect are often priced in before they have a chance to fully develop, leaving little room for manual traders to capitalise on them. Regulatory changes have also played a role. For instance, tax reforms in some countries have altered the incentives around year-end tax-loss harvesting, one of the primary drivers of the January effect. Without significant December selling, the reinvestment-driven rally in January may lose its momentum. Finally, globalisation has diluted the January effect. With global markets interconnected, price trends are no longer driven by isolated local factors. International flows and round-the-clock trading contribute to a more balanced market environment, reducing the impact of seasonal trends. How Traders Respond to the January Effect in the Stock Market Traders often pay close attention to seasonal trends like the January effect, using them as one of many tools in their market analysis. While it’s not a guarantee, the potential for small-cap stocks to rise in January offers insights into how some market participants adjust their strategies. Here are ways traders typically respond to this phenomenon: 1. Focusing on Small-Cap Stocks The January effect has historically been more pronounced in small-cap stocks. Traders analysing this trend often look for undervalued or overlooked small-cap companies with strong fundamentals. These stocks tend to experience sharper price movements due to their lower liquidity and higher susceptibility to seasonal buying pressure. 2. Positioning Ahead of January Some traders aim to capitalise on the January effect by opening a long position on small-cap stocks in late December, possibly during a Santa Claus rally, anticipating that reinvestment activity and optimism in January will drive prices up. This approach is not without risks, as not all stocks or markets exhibit the effect consistently. 3. Sector and Industry Analysis Certain sectors, such as technology or emerging industries, may show stronger seasonal performance in January. Traders often research historical data to identify which sectors have benefited most and align their trades accordingly. 4. Potential Opportunities Active traders might view the January effect as an opportunity for shorter-term trades. The focus is often on timing price movements during the month, using technical analysis to identify entry and exit points based on volume trends or momentum shifts. 5. Risk Management Adjustments While responding to the January effect, traders emphasise potential risk management measures. Seasonal trends can be unreliable, so diversification and smaller position sizes are often used to potentially limit exposure to downside risks. 6. Incorporating It Into Broader Strategies For many, the January effect is not a standalone signal but part of a larger seasonal analysis. It’s often combined with other factors like earnings reports, economic data, or geopolitical developments to form a more comprehensive approach. The Bottom Line The January effect remains an intriguing market trend, offering insights into seasonal stock movements and trader behaviour. While its relevance may have shifted over time, understanding it can add value to market analysis. For those looking to trade stock CFDs and explore potential seasonal trading opportunities, open an FXOpen account to access a broker with more than 700 markets, low costs, and fast execution speeds. FAQ What Is the Stock Market January Effect? The January effect refers to a historical pattern where stock prices, particularly small-cap stocks, tend to rise in January. This trend is often linked to tax-loss selling in December, portfolio rebalancing, and renewed investor optimism at the start of the year. What Happens to Stock Prices in January? In January, stock prices, especially for smaller companies, may experience an uptick due to increased buying activity, caused by a mix of factors, including tax-loss selling, “window dressing”, seasonal cash inflow, new year optimism, and market inefficiencies in small caps. However, this isn’t guaranteed and depends on various contextual factors. Is December a Good Month for Stocks? December is often positive for stocks, driven by the “Santa Claus rally,” where prices rise in the final weeks of the year. However, tax-loss selling, overall market sentiment and geopolitical and economic shifts can create mixed outcomes for the stock market, especially for small-cap stocks. Is New Year's Eve a Stock Market Holiday? No, the stock market is typically open for a shortened trading session on New Year's Eve. Normal trading hours resume after the New Year holiday. Which Months Could Be the Best for Stocks? According to theory, November through April, including January, have been months when stocks performed well. This trend is often attributed to seasonal factors and increased investor activity. However, trends change over time due to increasing market transparency and accessibility. Therefore, traders shouldn’t rely on statistics and should conduct comprehensive research. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXMEducation
by FXOpen
1
Santa Claus Rally: How Will Christmas Impact Stock MarketsSanta Claus Rally: How Will Christmas Impact Stock Markets in 2024 The Santa Claus rally is a well-known seasonal phenomenon where stock markets often see gains during the final trading days of December and the start of January. But what causes this year-end trend, and how does Christmas influence stock markets overall? In this article, we’ll explore the factors behind the rally, its historical significance, and what traders can learn from this unique period in the financial calendar. What Is the Santa Claus Rally? The Santa Claus rally, or simply the Santa rally, refers to a seasonal trend where stock markets often rise during the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January. For instance, Santa Claus rally dates for 2024 start on the 24th December and end on the 2nd January, with stock markets closed on the 25th (Christmas day) and the 28th and 29th (a weekend). First identified by Yale Hirsch in 1972 in the Stock Trader’s Almanac, this phenomenon has intrigued traders for decades. While not a guaranteed outcome, it has shown a consistent pattern in market data over the years, making it a point of interest for those analysing year-end trends. In Santa rally history, average returns are modest but noteworthy. For example, per 2019’s Stock Trader’s Almanac, the S&P 500 has historically gained around 1.3% during this period, outperforming most other weeks of the year. Across the seven days, prices have historically climbed 76% of the time. This trend isn’t limited to the US; global indices often experience similar movements, further highlighting its significance. To check market dynamics, head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader trading platform. The Christmas rally in the stock market is believed to stem from several factors. Low trading volumes during the holiday season, as many institutional investors take time off, may reduce resistance to upward price movements. Retail investors, buoyed by end-of-year optimism or holiday bonuses, may drive additional buying. Additionally, some investors reposition portfolios for tax purposes or adjust holdings ahead of the new year, contributing to the upward momentum. However, this pattern is not immune to disruption. Broader economic events, geopolitical tensions, or bearish sentiment can easily override it. While the Santa Claus rally is a fascinating seasonal trend, it’s essential to view it as one piece of the larger market puzzle rather than a reliable signal on its own. Why Might the Santa Claus Rally Happen? The Santa Claus rally isn’t a random occurrence. Several factors, both psychological and practical, can drive this year-end market trend. While it doesn’t happen every year, when it does, there are usually clear reasons behind it. Investor Optimism and Holiday Sentiment The holiday season often brings a wave of positive sentiment. This optimism can influence traders to take a bullish stance, especially as many are eager to start the new year on a strong note. Retail investors, in particular, may view this period as an opportunity to position themselves for potential January gains. The festive atmosphere and the prospect of year-end “window dressing”—where fund managers buy well-performing stocks to improve portfolio appearances—can also contribute. Tax-Driven Portfolio Adjustments As the year closes, many investors engage in tax-loss harvesting, selling underperforming assets to offset taxable gains. Once these adjustments are complete, reinvestments into higher-performing or promising stocks may push markets higher. This activity can create short-term demand, fuelling upward momentum during the rally period. Lower Trading Volumes Institutional investors often step back during the holidays, leaving markets dominated by retail traders and smaller participants. Lower trading volumes can result in less resistance to price movements, making it easier for upward trends to emerge. With fewer large players balancing the market, price shifts may become more pronounced. Bonus Reinvestments and End-of-Year Contributions Many professionals receive year-end bonuses or make final contributions to retirement accounts during this period. Some of this money flows into the markets, adding buying pressure. This effect is particularly noticeable in December, as investors seek to capitalise on potential market opportunities before the year wraps up. How Christmas Impacts Stock Markets The Christmas period is unique in the trading calendar, shaping market behaviour in ways that stand out from other times of the year. While some effects align with holiday-driven sentiment, others reflect broader seasonal trends. Reduced Liquidity and Trading Volumes One of the most notable impacts of Christmas is the sharp decline in trading activity. This contributes to the Santa rally, with the largest market participants—institutional investors and professional traders—stepping away for the holidays. This thinner activity can lead to sharper price movements as smaller trades carry more influence. For example, stocks with lower market capitalisation may experience greater volatility during this time. Sector-Specific Strength The most popular Christmas stocks tend to be those in the consumer discretionary and retail sectors (though this isn’t guaranteed). The holiday shopping boom drives significant revenues for companies in these sectors, often lifting their stock prices. A strong showing in retail sales, especially in countries like the US, can bolster market indices tied to consumer spending. Many consider companies like Amazon and brick-and-mortar retailers to be among the most popular stocks to buy before Christmas, given they often see increased trading interest around the holidays and a potential Christmas rally. Economic Data Releases The Christmas season still sees the publication of economic indicators. While there are no specific year-end releases from government statistical bodies, some 3rd-party reports may have an impact. Likewise, scheduled publications, such as US jobless claims (every Thursday) or non-farm payrolls (the first Friday of each month), can affect sentiment. Positive data can provide an additional boost to stock markets in December. However, weaker-than-expected results can dampen enthusiasm, counteracting any seasonal cheer. International Variations While Western markets slow down for Christmas, other global markets may not follow the same pattern. For instance, Asian markets, where Christmas is less of a holiday, may see regular or even increased activity. This discrepancy can create interesting dynamics for traders who keep an eye on global portfolios. The "Post-Holiday Rebound" As Christmas wraps up, markets often experience a slight rebound leading into the New Year, driven by renewed investor activity. This period, while brief, is closely watched as it can set the tone for the opening days of January trading. Potential Risks and Considerations While the Santa Claus rally and year-end trends can be intriguing, they are far from guaranteed. Relying solely on these patterns without deeper analysis can lead to overlooked risks and missed opportunities. Uncertain Market Conditions Macro factors, like interest rate changes, geopolitical tensions, or unexpected economic data, can disrupt seasonal trends. For instance, during times of economic uncertainty, the optimism often associated with the holidays might not translate to market gains. Traders must account for these broader dynamics rather than assuming the rally will occur. Overemphasis on Historical Patterns Historical data can provide valuable insights, but markets evolve. A pattern that held up in past decades may not carry the same weight today due to shifts in investor behaviour, technological advancements, and globalisation. Traders focusing too heavily on past trends may miss the impact of more relevant, current developments. Low Liquidity Risks The reduced trading volumes typical of the holiday season can work both ways. While thin markets may allow for upward price movements, they can also lead to heightened volatility. A single large trade or unexpected event can swing prices sharply, posing challenges for those navigating the market during this time. Sector-Specific Sensitivity Sectors like retail and consumer discretionary often draw attention during December due to strong sales data. However, poor performance or weak holiday shopping figures can cause a ripple effect, dragging down not only individual stocks but broader indices tied to these sectors. FOMO and Overtrading The hype surrounding the Santa Claus rally can lead to overtrading or ill-timed decisions, particularly for less experienced traders. Maintaining a disciplined approach, potentially combined with clear risk management strategies, can potentially help mitigate this issue. The Bottom Line The Santa Claus rally is a fascinating seasonal trend, offering insights into how market sentiment and activity shift during the holidays. While not guaranteed, understanding these patterns can help traders develop their strategies. Whether you’re exploring seasonal trends in stock CFDs or other potential opportunities across forex and commodity CFDs, having the right platform is essential. Open an FXOpen account today to access more than 700 markets, four trading platforms, and low-cost trading conditions. FAQ What Is the Santa Claus Rally? The Santa Claus rally refers to a seasonal trend where stock markets often rise during the final week of December and the first two trading days of January. It’s a well-documented phenomenon, first identified by Yale Hirsch in the Stock Trader’s Almanac. While it doesn’t occur every year, Santa Claus rally history demonstrates consistent patterns, with the S&P 500 averaging a 1.3% gain during this period. What Are the Dates for the Santa Claus Rally? The Santa Claus rally typically covers the final five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January. The Santa Claus rally in 2024 starts on the 24th of December and ends on the 2nd of January. During this period, stock markets will be closed on the 25th (Christmas Day) and the weekend of the 28th and 29th. How Many Days Does the Santa Claus Stock Rally Take? The rally spans seven trading days: the last five of December and the first two of January. While its duration is fixed, the intensity and consistency of the trend vary from year to year. Is December Good for Stocks? Historically, December has been one of the strongest months for stock markets. Positive sentiment, strong retail performance, and tax-related portfolio adjustments often contribute to this trend. Is the Stock Market Open on Christmas? No, US and UK stock markets are closed on Christmas Day, with reduced hours on Christmas Eve. Historically, What Is the Best Day of December to Invest in the Stock Market? Financial markets bear high risks, therefore, there is no best day for trading or investing. According to theory, in December stock market history, the last trading day of the year has often been among the strongest, as investors position portfolios for the new year. However, results vary based on broader market conditions and a trader’s skills. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXMEducation
by FXOpen
8
What Is Quantitative Tightening and How Does It Work?What Is Quantitative Tightening and How Does It Work in Financial Markets? Quantitative tightening (QT) is a critical tool central banks use to control inflation by reducing the money supply. In this article, we’ll break down how QT works, its impact on financial markets, and how it influences the broader economy. Read on to learn more about the effects of QT and how it shapes markets. What Is Quantitative Tightening? Quantitative tightening (QT) is a type of tightening monetary policy that central banks use to reduce the amount of money circulating in the economy. When central banks like the USA’s Federal Reserve or European Central Bank engage in QT, they aim to tighten liquidity by reducing their balance sheets, typically by allowing bonds or other financial assets to mature without reinvestment or selling them outright. QT is a practice often used alongside hiking central bank interest rates, though not always. The main goal of QT is to manage inflation by increasing borrowing costs and reducing demand for goods and services. By letting bonds mature or selling them, central banks effectively pull money out of circulation. This leads to fewer funds available for lending, which raises interest rates. Higher rates make borrowing more expensive, encouraging businesses and consumers to cut back on spending, which can help cool down inflation. An example of this mechanism in action is the Fed’s QT program that began in 2022 to tackle high inflation by reducing the size of its balance sheet after years of quantitative easing. QT is essentially the opposite of quantitative easing (QE), which is aimed at stimulating economic growth. What Is Quantitative Easing? QT and QE are both used to correct the economy’s course. However, while QT refers to the tightening of monetary policy, QE loosens it. During QE, central banks buy large quantities of government bonds and other assets to inject liquidity into the economy. This increases the money supply, lowers interest rates, and is intended to stimulate economic activity, particularly during downturns or recessions. QE was used extensively following the 2008 financial crisis and during the COVID-19 pandemic as a way to support economic recovery.​ How Does Quantitative Tightening Work? Quantitative tightening works by pulling liquidity out of the financial system, reducing the amount of money available for borrowing and investment. Central banks use a couple of specific methods to achieve this, which have a ripple effect on markets and the broader economy. 1. Reducing Asset Holdings One of the most common ways central banks implement QT is by allowing bonds and other financial assets on their balance sheets to mature without reinvesting the proceeds. For example, the Federal Reserve might hold trillions in government bonds. When those bonds mature, instead of using the proceeds to buy new bonds, the Fed simply lets the money flow out of circulation. This reduces the central bank’s balance sheet and shrinks the money supply, contributing to higher borrowing costs. 2. Selling Bonds Another method central banks use is the outright sale of government bonds or other securities. By selling assets, central banks increase the supply of bonds in the market. This can push bond prices down and drive yields higher, which makes borrowing more expensive for companies, governments, and individuals alike. Rising bond yields often lead to higher interest rates across the board, from mortgages to business loans—when there’s less money available for lending, banks raise the rates they charge for loans. Effects of Quantitative Tightening on the Broader Economy Quantitative tightening has significant ripple effects across the broader economy. As central banks reduce liquidity, it impacts everything from borrowing costs to consumer spending and business investment. 1. Higher Borrowing Costs One of the most immediate effects of QT is the rise in interest rates. As central banks shrink their balance sheets, bond prices fall, pushing yields higher. This, in turn, raises the cost of borrowing for businesses and consumers. There may also be interest rate hikes alongside QT, further tightening lending conditions. Mortgages, personal loans, and corporate debt all become more expensive, discouraging borrowing. For businesses, higher financing costs can limit expansion plans, reducing investment in growth or innovation. Households, meanwhile, face elevated mortgage rates, leading to reduced demand in housing markets and potentially lower home prices​. 2. Reduced Consumer Spending As the cost of borrowing rises, consumers have less disposable income. Higher interest rates on loans and credit cards mean households spend more on servicing debt and less on goods and services. This can slow down retail sales and reduce overall consumer demand, which is a critical driver of economic growth. Lower consumer spending typically affects sectors like retail, real estate, and manufacturing, which depend on a high volume of transactions​. 3. Slower Business Growth QT also impacts businesses by making it more expensive to access credit. Companies that rely on borrowing to finance operations, new projects, or expansions find it harder to justify taking on debt. With higher interest payments eating into profits, many businesses may delay or scale back investment plans. In addition, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that depend on bank loans for cash flow are often the hardest hit​. 4. Inflation Control While QT can slow economic activity, its primary goal is to rein in inflation. By reducing the money supply and making credit more expensive, it cools down demand. Lower consumer and business spending can reduce price pressures, helping to stabilise inflation. This was a key objective when the Federal Reserve resumed QT in 2022 to counter post-pandemic inflation​. 5. Potential Economic Slowdown However, if QT is too aggressive, it risks triggering an economic slowdown or even a recession. Tightening financial conditions leads to reduced economic growth, as seen in 2018 when markets reacted negatively to the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet reductions​. How Does Quantitative Tightening Affect Financial Markets? Quantitative tightening can have significant effects across different financial markets. By reducing liquidity, it influences the behaviour of key assets, from bonds to equities, and can reshape market conditions in profound ways. 1. Bond Market QT often leads to higher bond yields. When central banks like the Federal Reserve reduce their bond holdings or stop reinvesting in new ones, the supply of bonds in the market increases. As bond prices drop, yields rise to attract new buyers. This rise in yields means governments and corporations face higher borrowing costs. For instance, during the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening efforts in 2018, US Treasury yields rose significantly as more bonds became available in the market​. 2. Stock Market Equity markets often react negatively to QT. As liquidity tightens, the cost of borrowing rises for businesses, which can squeeze corporate profits and reduce their ability to invest or expand. Investors also tend to move away from riskier assets like stocks when bonds offer higher yields, as bonds become more attractive for their safety and improved returns. In 2018, US stocks experienced heightened volatility when the Fed’s quantitative tightening efforts combined with rate hikes led to market corrections​. 3. Foreign Exchange Market QT can also impact currency values. As central banks tighten monetary conditions and raise interest rates, their currencies often strengthen relative to others. This is because higher yields and interest rates attract foreign investment, increasing demand for the currency. For example, when the Fed began QT in 2022, the US dollar strengthened as investors sought better returns on US assets like Treasury bonds​. See how the US dollar strengthening occurred for yourself in FXOpen’s free TickTrader trading platform. 4. Credit Market QT reduces the availability of credit as banks and financial institutions face higher borrowing costs themselves. As liquidity is drained from the system, lenders tighten their credit conditions, making loans more expensive and harder to get. This can slow economic growth as businesses and consumers find it more costly to finance investments or purchases. In effect, QT creates a tighter financial environment by reducing liquidity, pushing up borrowing costs, and shifting investor behaviour across various markets. Each asset class feels the impact in different ways, but the overall effect is a more cautious, less liquid financial system. The Bottom Line Quantitative tightening is a powerful tool central banks use to manage inflation by reducing liquidity and increasing interest rates. While it helps control rising prices, QT can impact borrowing costs, investment, and market stability. Understanding how these mechanisms work is crucial for informed trading. Ready to take advantage of different market conditions? Open an FXOpen account today and start navigating more than 700 financial markets with low-cost, high-speed trading conditions, and four advanced trading platforms. FAQ What Is Quantitative Tightening? The quantitative tightening definition refers to a monetary policy used by central banks to reduce liquidity in the economy. This involves decreasing the central bank’s balance sheet by selling bonds or allowing them to mature without reinvestment. QT is typically aimed at curbing inflation by raising borrowing costs and slowing economic activity​. How Does Quantitative Tightening Work? QT works by reducing the supply of money in the financial system. Central banks achieve this by selling government bonds or letting them mature. As the bonds leave the market, interest rates rise, making borrowing more expensive for businesses and consumers​. How Does Quantitative Tightening Affect the Stock Market? QT can negatively impact stock markets. As interest rates rise and liquidity tightens, borrowing costs for companies increase, which can hurt corporate profits. Investors may shift towards so-called safer assets like bonds, reducing demand for stocks and contributing to market volatility​. What Is the Difference Between QT and QE? Quantitative easing (QE) increases the money supply by buying bonds, while quantitative tightening (QT) reduces liquidity by selling bonds or letting them mature. The main difference between quantitative easing vs tightening is that QE stimulates economic growth, while QT aims to control inflation​. What Does It Mean When the Fed Is Tightening? When the Federal Reserve tightens, it implements policies to reduce money supply and raise interest rates. This helps control inflation by making borrowing more expensive and slowing economic activity​. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:DXYEducation
by FXOpen
1
GEVO. Manipulation Short squeeze. How short positions are reset.This example is on paper company Gevo inc - manufacturing. Chemical industry. Specialized chemicals. I will say that I combined the training idea with the trading one , how the stocks will be relevant for trading now, the potential first profit with confirmation of support can be about + 90%. Everything that happens now, goals, read below under the description of the manipulation of a short squeeze. But let's plunge into the past and in order to examine this detective story in order to evaluate this masterpiece of trading art by applying the punishment of the zombie crowd of believers “it should be like that” and “put sure Stop-Loss like a smart uncle wrote to us in a book.” It was like this ... It seems that the downtrend will last forever. After all, the price over the past 2 years has fallen by almost -99%! Dump from $ 245 to $ 3.30! This is what happens with real companies, but what about non-existent crypto projects? After all, almost all crypto projects are built on promises that this “nothing” will cost a lot. Buy and hold, and you and the plant employee will become a millionaire in a couple of months / years. The sweetest lie, the more willing poor John believes in it. As you understand, in many cryptocurrency projects for lovers of “buy and hold”, to become a millionaire and stop going to the factory is still ahead. It doesn’t matter whether these assets are pumped up yet or not, but their ultimate fate is the complete disappearance in the near future of the life of poor believing John. The graph shows a strong downtrend , merciless to investors. But among investors, one must not forget that there are very rich uncles who can also make a mistake. But those who want to fix it. Well, it is clear that after such a fall from $ 240 to $ 3, no sane person believes in growth already, how silly it is. Most traders enter only a short position. But there are more intelligent people who have thought and decided why we don’t make a lot of money on “100% faith” of people. The strongest downtrend. Drop from $ 240 to $ 3.30. Minus 99% for 2 years. As part of this trend, many sellers are going to expect a continued decline in the trend. But after all, everyone was taught that it is necessary to put Stop-Loss, and if you do not, then you should always close somewhere. Where will everyone have stops on this chart? Yes, everything of course depends on the point of opening positions, but the generally accepted approach - Stop-Loss who enters a short position will be put for the nearest resistance, that is, we will be interested in the zones above the selected levels on the chart. If everything is clear and the main crowd has so much faith and become accustomed to the eternal fall, why not take advantage of this and start the domino effect? After all, money is burned only initially to start the process, then only fantastic earnings. How everyone will be "trapped" in a trap. Any inadequate Stop-Loss sizes will be reached. Buy or margin Call. Gevo inc. Levels where the crowd of "shorts" puts Stop-Loss. It is in these zones that Stop-Loss of most market participants are behind the resistance. Large players understand this very well, it’s a sin not to use it if you have enough money on hand for this manipulation. Perhaps the biggest player is the company itself, which is very interested in getting out of a loss-making situation and making big profits. After all, having for this a certain amount of money you can start an avalanche-like process and get the most unattainable Stop-Loss, thereby moving the market up against the current trend on Stop-Loss. This is an avalanche-like process. You understand very well what will happen to those traders who have opened a short trend and the price will begin to rise against their position, and even grow rapidly impulse with no chance of pardon. Yes, everything is simple, when we reach a certain zone, the order is executed, that is, the position is closed by Stop-Loss. And we all know that a position is closed by opening a reverse position, which means that if we were on sale, then a purchase is opened to close, that is, we create additional demand for growth. And so on the chain. And it’s not scary that then the price will return very quickly back to the previous values, because the manipulators will be in big profit, and the trader who caught the margin will no longer enter a short position on this asset. This is what came out of the chart below. Gevo inc. Growth + 600% at closing short on Stop-Loss. As we can see, the first strong resistance was + 100% of the minimum value before the short squeeze. That's how you think who believed that the price will reach these values? It is clear that no one, well, especially since the price will reach the last Stop Loos zone. For such an action, money was needed only until the first Stop-Loss zone, after which the price moves according to the domino effect. Growth fuel is the closing of short positions. Virtually no one believed in growth, which is why the impulse was + 600%, due to the closure of short positions of those who did not believe. After a while, the price broke the line of the main downtrend. Price shifted to lateral movement. Wishing to enter the short was less and less, as everyone remembered the previous margin Call. A year ago, there were two more attempts to punish those wishing to enter a short position in this trading instrument. It was not possible to repeat the short squeeze situation on such a scale. The first short squeeze is + 67% and immediately after it + 27%. It can be seen that there are no more willing traders to enter a short position on this trading instrument. Gevo inc. The situation is now. Please note that only on short-squeezes did a large volume go out at the auction. Traders with short positions were squeezed out of the market specifically. In lateral movement, the price is now drawing a formation that could become a triple bottom. If support is confirmed , the growth potential to the previous local maximum and the first resistance is about + 90%. ___________________________________________ Manipulations. Someone thinks that manipulations occur only in the crypto market, this is not so, they are everywhere, only in the crypto market they are open and arrogant, as there is no responsibility for this. In other markets, there is price manipulation, but to a lesser extent, as if the relevant authorities prove guilty there will be huge fines, or the deprivation of a license for trading activities up to the prison. ___________________________________________ What is a squeeze on the exchange. Short squeeze. Long squeeze. Squeeze (eng. Queeze - squeeze out) - a situation in the financial market when Stop Loss is sharply collected. As a result of the sharp increase, part of the Stop Loss is squeezed out, and part is closed at the “what is” price, this leads to an even greater increase / decrease in the price. Since positions can be held both in purchase and in sale, both short-squeeze and long-squeeze are possible. Short squeeze - it happens when sellers (shorts) are forced to close their open positions in order to avoid even greater losses, which only spurs the price even higher. On the graph, the hairpin (shadow) is up. Long squeeze - exactly the opposite. A sharp decline in the price of assets, forcing buyers (longists) to close their positions. Here, the buyers are already the “victims”, who are forced to close open transactions at a loss in order to prevent even greater losses, which provokes a further drop in the price of the instrument. On the graph, the hairpin (shadow) is down. ________________________________________ Short squeeze on margin trading. If it comes to margin trading, the strongest buyer today is yesterday's short. The vicious circle for bears is called "short squeeze" - short squeeze. In order not to be trapped, market participants must understand the principle of short positions, see the potential for a situation that could provoke a “short squeeze”. Experienced traders know how to make a profit with a short squeeze. The strongest short-term growth waves often occur during periods when a large number of lower players find themselves locked in an unprofitable position due to an unexpected price increase for them. As a rule, these are mid-level traders and so-called “hamsters” market participants with a level of knowledge and experience that is close to zero and close to it. Unfortunately or vice versa, fortunately the bulk of the crowd of the crypto market is precisely this layer of society. In such a situation, in order to get out of the trap they have to actively buy this cryptocurrency in which they are locked at any price in order to save part of their capital and fix the loss. I will explain in more detail so that the mechanism of this phenomenon becomes more clear. A short position or short-term transaction (from impudent short) is an operation when a trader sells a borrowed coin with the intention of buying it back later at a lower price. After the return of the borrowed coins, the difference between the sale price and the purchase price becomes profit. You can borrow cryptocurrency from the exchange, which as a guarantee for such a loan requires an adequate amount of guarantee security in the account. As a guarantee, money, bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, which are valued at a certain discount, can act. When the value of the coin in which you are in a position increases, the size of the required guarantee for short positions also begins to grow rapidly. If the amount of funds in the account is insufficient to cover the required amount of security, the exchange may forcefully close the position. Downgrade players usually try to prevent this situation and close the position before submitting a margin call request from the exchange. However, their tactics here are essentially the same - a quick purchase of a coin that has grown in price, and you are in a short unprofitable position on it. If the size of the positions of such participants is large enough, then this situation can lead to skyrocketing prices and the avalanche-like closure of other shorts. Scalper traders and intraday traders who often open counter-trend trades in the hope of a pullback after active growth can aggravate the situation even more. If the rollback is not realized, then their purchases may become additional fuel for the upward movement. ________________________________ The immaturity of the cryptocurrency market provides opportunities for manipulation. An important feature of the cryptocurrency market, which is often ignored, is its tendency to respond to the actions of individual bidders. By individual bidders, I mean large traders, the creators of individual cryptocurrencies on which manipulations occur, as well as exchanges, which naturally themselves are owners of large cryptocurrency assets. And also, if desired, can affect their price. Roughly speaking, these are market participants who are called “whales” in the slang of traders. The cryptocurrency market is more affected by the influence of these particular market participants than other markets, due to the lack of maturity and insufficient control of the relevant state financial control bodies. No fundamental does not work without money support, but money on the exchange without the influence of the fundamental works in such an uncontrolled market perfectly. For example, we are all familiar with such frequent phenomena in the crypto market as "pumps" (artificially pumping prices). Very often they occur even without the release of FUD news on a particular coin. Also, the entire crypto market is very much tied to the dynamics of bitcoin, which can lead it in the opposite direction to fundamental factors. In recent years, the market has become more “mature”: instead of the buy-and-hold trading strategy, many have begun to use more advanced methods. Futures contracts, trading with leverage, opening short positions are now available. The more powerful players appear in the industry, the more the community takes on them “tricks” from the field of trading. More and more traders are using short positions in a falling market, allowing them to earn money in such conditions. And naturally, in such conditions, short squids and long squises often occur. Since the majority of traders take short positions in the bear market, many receive big losses, some especially greedy and not experienced margin calls. Large investors can begin to behave dishonestly Short-squeeze can be carried out only by a large market participant, such manipulations are beyond the power of ordinary traders. How to do this you need a huge amount. As a rule, such manipulations are done by the exchanges themselves. This is illegal - but everything is legal on the cryptocurrency market! There are conspiracy theories that such manipulations are carried out by exchanges, thus getting rid of customers who will definitely be in the black due to short positions and withdraw money from the exchange ecosystem.
NASDAQ:GEVOEducation
by SpartaBTC
23
Stock Market AnimalsThe stock market animals roam the financial landscape, representing optimism or pessimism. These animal metaphors capture the sentiment and beliefs behind the market participants who often try to outsmart each other through their edge in the market. Here is a list of 7 most popular animal metaphors in the stock market. Maybe it can help some traders to look at themselves in the mirror. 🐮Bulls🐮 Its true that at some point everybody would have been a bull in the stock market but here we are talking about the hardcore bulls who are quintessential symbol of rising market. They never go short on the market and make money from the escalating prices of the stocks. This is because they are always overtly positive about the economy and the companies in which they invest. Undoubtedly, bulls are responsible for the buying pressure in the market. 🐻Bears🐻 Needless to say, bears are exactly the opposite of bulls. They never go long and make money from falling stock prices. Their pessimistic and cautionary view about the markets glue them to their short positions. Thus, bears keep on creating selling pressure in the markets. 🐕Wolf🐕 Wolves are neither bulls nor bears but at the same time they are the both. Wolves are shrewd animals who always seek profit making opportunities on both sides of the market. Due to their aggressive trading they quickly adapt to the changing market conditions. They are able to take advantage of momentum, volatility and short-term price discrepancies. They tend to quietly wait for opportunities rather than hopping on to them. 🐢Turtle🐢 Turtles by their very nature believe in slow money-making ideology. They are the most patient ones among all the other categories. Generally, they marry their investments with a longer-term perspective. They take stock splits, bonuses and pocket dividends to make money. Turtles are steady buyers as well as steady sellers. 🐰Rabbit🐰 Rabbits are the most popular trading creatures. They are Intraday hoppers who trade in both the directions. They may be bullish at 10am and bearish at 10:05am. They believe in small but quick money-making ideology. Characterized as least patient among all the other types of market participants, they are just the opposite of turtles. Generally, they are pushed by the market sentiment to take a large number of trades during the day. However, they square off all profit/loss making positions before market close. They don’t restraint themselves from using a whole lot of indicators and strategies to make buy and sell decisions. Unfortunately, most rabbits lose money in the market. 🐔Chicken🐔 They are risk-averse creatures who believe in preserving their capital. Market volatility and momentum are not their cup of tea. They invariably take small risk and make smaller money. A small price fluctuation, on either side, may throw them out of the trade. 🦈Shark🦈 Sharks are the market manipulators. With their exceptional potential to drive or hold the prices to certain levels, they look for opportunities to trap weak traders on the wrong side of the market and exploit their fear or greed. Trading pools, large traders and prop firms etc. fall into this category. What makes them different from the rest of the market participants is their access to more accurate market data and mammoth sized Gigabucks at their disposal. I would not ask anybody's (predictable) type but would say that there is always room for improvement. It just needs : ⚡Realization on your part to recognize yourself. ⚡Commitment to follow the discipline needed to transform yourself. Anyways, which one do you like to become. Write in the comment section below. Thanks for reading. Do like for more educational stuff in future. Disclaimer: These metaphors are not created by me but views are personal.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Bravetotrade
8
Seasonal Futures Trading Patterns S&P 500 Hey traders today I wanted to go over what I believe are the best Seasonal Futures and Forex trades during the year. There are many markets that have seasonal patterns. Such as Forex, Stocks, Futures, and Commodities. Knowing the best time to trade to look for these Seasonal Futures and Forex opportunities will help you in your trading. This series on Seasonal Futures and Forex will be ongoing with several videos. The first video will be about the S&P 500 futures and how to trade them seasonally. Enjoy! Trade Well, Clifford
CME_MINI:MES1!Education
by TradeTheIndex
Why Is The Stock Market So Difficult To Predict?━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Let’s assume stock prices have been rising for several years. Investors realize that a correction will come and stock prices will tumble. What we don’t understand is what will trigger the selloff or exactly when it will occur. Therefore, some investors will sit on the sidelines holding cash, waiting for the opportune time to get in. Those who are willing to assume the risk may jump in because the return on cash is so low and it hurts to earn zero while watching stocks move higher. This begs a couple of key questions. If you’re on the sidelines, how will you know when to get in? If you’re already in, how will you know when it’s time to get out? If the stock market was predictable, these questions could easily be answered. However, it is not. There are actually three issues an investor should consider. The first is understanding the point at which stock prices are fairly valued. The second issue is the event that will cause a downturn
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by dsp21486
What is Stock Valuation ? Stock Valuation ━━━━━━━━━━━━━ The actual price of a stock is determined by market activity. When making the decision to buy or sell, the investor will often compare a stock’s actual price to its fair value. For example, if a stock is trading at $30 per share and its fair value is $35, it may be worth purchasing. Conversely, if it trades at $30 but its fair value is $25, the stock would be considered overvalued and the investor would be wise to avoid it. What is a stock’s fair value and how do you calculate it? Ideally, it would be based on some standardized formula. However, there are many ways to derive this figure. One method is to combine the value of a company’s assets on its balance sheet, minus depreciation and liabilities. Another is to determine its intrinsic value, which is the net present value of a company’s future earnings. We have briefly discussed two methods. There are a number of others. Because the methods yield a slightly different result, it’s sometimes difficult to know if a stock is overvalued, undervalued, or fairly valued. And even if it is overvalued, that doesn’t mean investors will suddenly sell and the price will fall.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by dsp21486
Sell In May and Go Away?You might have heard the saying “Sell in May and go away.” It is an old investing adage that has been around for decades, but does it actually work? In this blog post, we are going to find out what’s best to do. We will discuss: 1. What is the meaning behind “Sell in May and go away?” 2. Does sell in May and go away work? 3. Should you sell in May and go away? 4. Two reasons not to sell in May and what to do instead. Let’s get started: 1. What Is The Meaning Behind “Sell In May And Go Away?” The saying “Sell in May and go away” has been around for a long time. It was first recorded in 1937 by John Hill via The Financial Times of London. The original saying was “Sell in May and come on back on St. Leger’s Day.” This phrase refers to a custom of aristocrats, merchants, and bankers who would leave the city of London and escape to the country during the hot summer months. St. Leger’s Day refers to the St. Leger’s Stakes, a thoroughbred horse race held in mid-September and the last leg of the British Triple Crown. And it seems that American traders have adopted the saying. Americans are more likely to spend more time on vacation between Memorial Day and Labor Day. 2. Does “Sell in May And Go Away” Work? And indeed, for over 50 years, the stock market performance supported the theory behind the strategy. From 1950 to around 2013, the DOW has had an average return of only 0.3% during the six-month period from May to October period. In comparison, the Dow had an average gain of 7.5% during the November to April period. So it seems that “Sell in May and Go away” is a strategy that may have worked for many years. But In recent times, it seems like the strategy has fallen out of favor. Technical analysts at Merrill Lynch looked at historical data and found THIS out: Looking at 3-month seasonal data going back to 1928, the June-August period typically is the second-best of the year, with gains 63% of the time, and an average return of 2.97%! 3. Should You Sell In May And Go Away? With all this conflicting data, does it make sense to sell in May and go away? Is this a good investment strategy? You know me — I always say “Trade What You See And Not What You Think!” Always look at the market data! As an example, last year, between May 4th and August 31st, 2020, the Nasdaq rose 28% (refer to chart). If you would have sold in May and "gone away," you would have missed out on these gains. 4. Two Reasons Not To Sell In May And What To Do Instead Maybe it makes sense to sell in May and go away when you’re an investor. MAYBE... But as a short-term trader like me, May is a GREAT month to trade, and here’s why: I like to trade The Wheel Strategy . With this trading strategy, you are selling option premiums. And there are 2 factors that influence options premiums: - Volatility When volatility is high, option premiums are higher. The Volatility Index VIX for the past few month, has been pretty low in March and April. But now, in May 2021, it's spiking up again. This means that options premiums are higher, which is perfect for a seller like me: I can get more premium! - Down Days Step 1 of The Wheel Strategy is selling puts, and you get more premium for puts on “Down Days” for such strategies. According to the NASDAQ , thus far, in May 2021, we had 7 “down days” and only 4 “up days." On “down days," there are many more trading opportunities. Last week, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average had its worst week since February, I made $3,722 in profits. Here Are Some Of My Trades In May: Let’s take a look at these trades in more detail: - Trade #1: Snapchat SNAP Snapchat recently had some rough weeks. In less than 2 months, it traded from a high of 72.50 to around $50 where it found some support. Most retail investors would stay away from a stock like this but I saw an opportunity to “buy it at a discount” : I sold Puts with a strike price of 47 and an expiration of 4 days. If SNAP closed below $47 on May 14 (the expiration date), I would have gotten assigned and bought SNAP for $47. I would consider that a bargain. If SNAP closed above $47, I would have just kept the premium that I received for selling calls. In this case, that’s $525. SNAP did close above $47 on May 14, and I collected $525 for 4 days of exposure in the stock market. - Trade #2: Square SQ Square looked very similar: Mid-February, the stock made a high of $280, but then it retreated to $200. Most market participants would not trade a stock like this, but looking back over a six-month period, I saw some good support around the $200 — $203 level. I sold 5 Puts with a strike price of 202.50 and an expiration date of May 14th. I received $100 in premium for each put, so I collected $500 in premium. On May 14, SQ closed above $202.50, and I made $500 in only 4 days. That’s a very nice return. - Other Trades I Took I sold 119 Puts on Apple , sold 212.50 Puts on Boeing , And I sold 39.50 Puts on Dave & Busters . All of these stocks have lost in value over the past few months. Investors who follow a ‘buy-and-hold approach” would lose money in this scenario, but as an active investor, I can apply trading strategies that make money even if the stock is going sideways or even moving lower. Summary “Sell in May and go away” is an old Wall Street adage that might be useful for buy-and-hold investors. But active investors like me are always on the lookout for trading opportunities. And with the right trading strategy, the increased volatility combined with markets that are moving lower is a dream come true. You need to have the right trading strategy. I personally like to use the PowerX Strategy for markets that are trending, and I trade The Wheel Strategy in choppy market conditions as we experience right now. With such a strategy, I am able to make money even if the stock is going sideways or lower. I for one will NOT sell in May and go away!
TVC:NDQEducation
by rockwelltrading
2
Options vs Stocks: Which Is Better?If you are wondering whether to trade options vs stocks, then this article is for you. There’s no simple answer to that question because it depends on how much money you have and your risk tolerance level. This blog post will cover the 7 topics that you need to know to answer the question “Is Options Trading Better Than Stocks?” 1. What Is The Difference Between Buying Stocks and Buying Options? Let’s keep it simple: When you buy a stock, then you own a share of the company and get paid dividends. Buying options, on the other hand, means that you only have the right to buy or sell a stock at a specific price before the option expires. But you don’t own the stock (yet). As you will see in a few moments, options trading requires much less capital than buying a stock, and therefore it’s very attractive. But it can also very confusing. My goal is to make it simple for you. Let’s start with an example: 2. Which Is Better: To Buy A Call Option On A Stock Or To Buy A Stock? Let’s use Apple (AAPL) as an example. Right now, the market price (at the time of this writing on May 6th, 2021) of AAPL is 128.70. Let’s assume, you are bullish on Apple and expect AAPL to go higher. So you could buy 100 shares of AAPL, but this would come with a high price: 100 shares * 128.70 per share = $12,870 If you have a small account, this might be too high of an investment. The good news: You can trade options instead. When you buy a CALL option, you have the right to buy 100 shares of AAPL at a set price (the strike price) on or before the expiration date of the option. You could buy a call option that expires on June 18th. Today is May 6th, so you have 43 days before this option expires worthless The price of the option is $3.75. Options come in “100 packs”, so your investment to buy this call option is only $3.75 * 100 = $375 Why Buy Options Instead Of Stocks? First of all, it’s much cheaper: Compared to the investment of 12,807 to buy 100 shares, that’s only 3% of the money that’s required. And because of that, options more profitable than stocks. Let me explain: 3. Are Options More Profitable Than Stocks? Since you are bullish on AAPL, you expect the stock to go up. Let’s say that over the next few weeks, the stock goes to 140: Let’s take a look at the profits from your stocks first: You bought 100 shares of AAPL at a price of $128.70 per share. Now each share is worth $140. So your profit is 140–128.70 = 11.30 per share * 100 shares = 1,130. Based on your investment of $12,870, that’s 8.8% Return on Investment (ROI). That’s not bad, but let’s take a look at the call option: How Are Options More Profitable Than Stocks? The call option that you bought gives you the right to BUY 100 shares of AAPL for $130 before June 18th. So if AAPL shares move up to $140, you can buy 100 shares of AAPL at $130 and sell them immediately at $140. This means that your profit per share is 140–130 = 10. And since you are trading 100 shares, your profit would be $1,000. But keep in mind: You paid $375 for the right to do this, so you need to subtract this from your profits: 1000–375 = 625. Your total profit is $625. Doesn’t sound much, but based on your $375 investment, that’s 167% return on investment (ROI). In summary: You made more money in terms of absolute dollars on the stock ($1,130 vs. $625), but the money you needed to make this profit was much less: $375 vs. $12,870. And that’s why your ROI is 167% when trading the option vs 8.8% when trading the stock — even though the stock price is exactly the same. Pretty cool, huh? 4. How Much Money Do You Need For Options Trading? As you can see from the previous example, you need MUCH less money when trading options vs trading stocks. When trading options, you can get started with as little as $2,000. Check with your broker about the minimum requirements to open an options trading account. So if you have a smaller account, trading options might be much better for you than stock trading. 5. Can You Lose Money Trading Options? Let’s talk about the risks of options trading, specifically the question “Can you lose money trading options?” The answer: YES, of course! In the example above, you could lose the premium you paid for the option, i.e. $375, if the stock price does not move above the strike price of $130. If AAPL remains below $130 until the expiration date of June 18th, your option expires worthless. And here’s why: With a call option, you have the right to BUY 100 shares of AAPL for $130. If AAPL is trading below $130, let’s say at $128, you don’t want to exercise your right to buy AAPL at $130. Because then you would pay MORE for the stock than you would if you bought it right away. Making sense? So if AAPL stays below $130 until expiration, your option expires worthless and you lose the premium you paid for the right to buy the stock. Can You Lose More Than You Invest In Options? When you are BUYING options, you can not lose more than the premium that you pay when buying options. So that’s good. However, when you are SELLING options, that’s a different story, and we will cover that later. So in summary: When BUYING options, the maximum amount that you could lose is the premium you pay when buying the option. 6. What Are The Risks Of Options Trading? YES, there are risks when trading options: a) Selling Options Can Be Dangerous. As you have seen, when BUYING options your risk is limited to the premium you pay when buying the option. However, as a seller, there’s a lot more risk. In some cases, you can have UNLIMITED risk. We will cover this in detail in a later article. b) Buying Out Of The Money Options. Risky before the probabilities are low. c) Know What You’re Doing When trading options, there are a few more things to consider: Call options vs put options Strike Prices Expiration Dates … and then there are also these pesky “Greeks” like delta, gamma, theta, rho, etc. And when you have more things to consider, there are more possibilities to make mistakes. So make sure that you understand all these factors before you start trading options. We will talk about “The Greeks” later. Are Options Riskier Than Stocks? YES. Because it’s easier to lose ALL of your investment. Let’s continue our example from above: Trading Stocks You bought AAPL at $128.70 per share. If AAPL drops to $125, then you would lose $3.70 per share, or $370 for 100 shares. Based on your initial investment, that’s only 2.9% Trading Options You bought the 130 Call Option for $3.75. If AAPL doesn’t move above 130, you lose ALL of your investment, i.e. 100%. Yes, the investment is much lower, but instead of losing 2.9% as you would when trading stocks, you would lose 100%. Selling Options And when selling options, you can lose A LOT of money. Selling options can be very profitable. In fact, I made more than $75,000 in less than 5 months selling options… … BUT it’s also very risky. Compare options vs stocks like riding a bicycle and riding a motorcycle: Riding a motorcycle gets you to your destination quicker. And it can be more fun. But it’s also much riskier than riding a bicycle. 7. Can You Really Make Money Trading Options? Absolutely! There are many advantages to trading options, and it is possible to make money with options. Is there a safe way to trade options? You need to know what you are doing, and you need to have a solid trading strategy. Find a strategy that you understand and then practice it on a simulator. And when you are ready, start making money with it. Can Option Trading make you rich? When trading options, you will often see returns of 167%, 200% or even 300%. Therefore, it’s easy to believe that options trading can make you rich. But keep in mind: With these high returns, comes high risk. Yes, you can make 200% or 300% when trading options. And you can lose ALL your investment, as you have seen above. Don’t think of options trading as a “get-rich-quick-scheme”. But when used correctly, options trading is perfect to grow a small account into a bigger one. Summary: Should I Trade Options YES! Should I trade stocks or options? Why not do both? Best of both worlds! Is options trading worth it? YES! It can be very rewarding! As we just covered with trading options, there are many, many advantages. If you are not trading options yet, I highly recommend that you start looking into them.
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by rockwelltrading
1
When To Sit On Your Hands When TradingNow, as you know, I like to use the PowerX Optimizer to find the best trades according to the PowerX strategy, along with The Wheel Strategy. So here’s my morning routine. Usually, I’m in front of the computer at 8 a.m. Central Time. That is 30 minutes before the US markets open. I run the scanner on PowerX Optimizer, and it finds possible trades based on my criteria. My Criteria For Finding Stocks My criteria, for starters, is I like to look for long and short signals because I like to play the markets both ways. I want to see at least a 60% return on my investment. I also want to see stocks that have a closing price between $5 and $250, because I don’t like to trade stocks that are below $5. I want to see a profit factor that is higher than 3. This means that for every dollar that I would have lost trading the strategy, I would have made $3. I also want a risk-reward ratio of at least 2%. Usually, there are anywhere between 4 & 8 stocks that come up on my scanner every day. I use three criteria to find A-plus trades. So here’s what I’m looking for. Number one, I’m looking for gappiness. I look back to see if the stock had a lot of gaps over the past year. I look back over the past 13 months. Number two, I’m looking for is trendability. What does trendability mean? It means that I want to see nice trends to the upside and the downside. And the last thing, number three, is I’m looking at the P&L chart. What does the P&L chart mean? Now, this is one of the strengths of the PowerX Optimizer software, and this is why I use it every single day. The P&L chart basically shows you what would have happened if I had traded this stock according to the rules of the PowerX strategy over the past year. So I can take a look at the trading report where I see for the past few trades, what I would have made in profits & losses. When To Sit On Your Hands Anyhow, this morning (at the time of this writing) I just saw EVRI on my scanner and it passed MOST of my criteria. First of all, it did pass all my scanner criteria, otherwise, it wouldn’t have come up here. Also, it did pass 2 out of my 3 criteria in terms of gappiness and trendability. But when it came to the P&L chart, it didn’t meet my criteria. So this is where this morning I did the most difficult thing for a trader. I was sitting on my hands. You see, at the beginning of my trading career, I had this little voice in my head and this little voice in my head said, “If you don’t trade, you don’t make any money.” Well after I forced some trades, I realized, well, if you don’t trade, you also don’t lose any money. This is why it’s so important. In the beginning when I got a new tool, or when I had a new trading strategy, I wanted to trade it. All I wanted to do was trade. However, when there’s nothing to trade, DON’T TRADE. This is why I use the PowerX Optimizer. It a fantastic job of keeping you out of trouble. So now, as you know, I am trading two strategies. In addition to trading the PowerX strategy, I’m also trading the Wheel. So also for the Wheel, I started looking for trades. Let me show you what I was looking for this morning. One of the trades that I thought, ahh you know what, this might actually be a decent trade was Marriott, (MAR), but when I looked, however, there wasn’t enough premium in there to sell according to the Wheel. I looked at another stock that came up on my radar this morning, which was (PENN). There was some great premium in there but PENN sounded rather risky. You see, for me, it is very, very important that I have a great track record. Now at the beginning of my trading career, I would have forced these trades. I would have said, “Oh my gosh, I cannot be done working after one hour,” because this is what happens sometimes in the morning. I sit down in front of the computer at 8 o’clock, which is half an hour before the open, and I run through the PowerX Optimizer, and don’t find anything. Now, one of the things that of course, I do every single day, is that I check my open positions, and in the PowerX Optimizer, I have my watch list. So first I look for new trades, and secondly, manage my existing trades. I don’t, however, need to overmanage my account when there are days where there is nothing to trade. What I used to do way back when I was still new to trading, and nothing would come up, I would adjust my criteria. I said, yeah, you know what? Instead of getting a 60% return on my investment, why don’t I lower it to 50%, or why don’t I lower the winning percentage to 35%. Maybe lower the volume to 200,000. I had to learn the hard way early in my career not to do this. Summary So anyhow, in summary, there will be days when you’re all excited, but you see, in order to make money with trading, two conditions have to be met. Number one, you have to be ready, and number two, the markets have to be ready. You may be ready but if the markets are not ready, you got to sit on your hands. The beautiful thing as traders, it’s not that today is the trading opportunity of a century. No, tomorrow there will be more trades, on Wednesday will be more trades, on Thursday. Every single day I’m running the scanner according to PowerX Optimizer and I will find more opportunities to trade. So today, one of the hardest lessons, and this is why I wanted to share it with you, sit on your hands. Anyhow, if you enjoyed this video, do me a favor and click on like so that more people will see it.
TVC:SPXEducation
by rockwelltrading
How Earnings Season Affects OptionsAs most of you are aware, it is earnings season. So today we’re going to talk about how earnings season can impact options trading, because, as you know, I trade options. Now, just a brief intro. Earnings season happens quarterly, meaning four times a year, and this is when corporations reveal their financial results for the previous quarter. Now, the results of a company’s earnings report can have a major impact on the stock price, and options will often price in the expectations for a big post-earnings move before the event. This is why it is likely that options premium are more expensive during this time. Implied Volatility One thing to know about this and how it can impact your trading is implied volatility. See, there several things that make up an options price, including the market’s expectation for future volatility, and that is called implied volatility. So why is this important? Well, as the buyer of an option, higher implied volatility means that you are paying more for your contract. So if you buy an option before earnings and hold through earnings, you put yourself at risk for a so-called volatility crash. Now, part of the reason implied volatility goes up so much ahead of earnings is because traders don’t know which way the stock is going to go or by how much. I mean, remember Netflix at the beginning of March? Who would have known that Netflix would soar 17%? But you see, once a company reports earnings, there is no more uncertainty, and this is when implied volatility drops, and in some cases, so does the options price. So if you bought an expensive option, there’s a chance that you have to sell it to close at a lower price even if a stock moves in the direction you want it to. And let me show you a very, very specific example of a volatility crash and why it is so important that you understand the concept of volatility and how it can impact your options trading. So I want to show you right here we see Seagate. Seagate reported earnings last week. And so here is the pre-earnings options data. The day before Seagate, STX, was trading at $61.45, and an At-The-Money call with a 61.50 strike price was going for the last traded price of $1.74, and the implied volatility was 128%. On the other hand, the put was going for $1.82 and the implied volatility was also 128%. Now, this was the day before earnings. Now let’s talk of what happened the day after earnings. So again, here Seagate was trading at $61.45 before earnings, but then the next day, Seagate dropped to $59.33. So it fell dramatically and therefore, and the price of the 61.50 call is only a penny. So it’s not surprising that the call is not worth anything, but here’s the key. Even though the stock fell quite substantially, the put only went from $1.82 to $2.51 so it went up because puts go up as the stock goes down. So this means that the put only went up to $0.70, $0.69 to be exact. You see this is how the volatility crash affects the option price, because even though the put is worth more now, and is now in the money, but it also lost a lot of value due to the decline in implied volatility. See, the previous day, it was 128%, this implied volatility, and the day after only 96%. So you have to factor this in when trading options into earnings. How Is Implied Volatility Measured? So let’s talk about this implied volatility thing and how is this measured, right? You know me, I’m all about practical stuff, so I don’t want to bore you with the math behind it and I don’t have to. The good news is that there are plenty of places online that calculate the implied volatility for you, and I want to show you exactly how you can see if the implied volatility, is high, low, or average. Here is the easiest way to do it. You compare the implied volatility to the stock’s historical volatility for exactly the same time frame. The implied volatility measures the market expectation for future price action. Now, the historical volatility measures the volatility for a stock that already occurred over a specific time frame. All you have to do to see if the implied volatility is high, low, or average compare it to the historical volatility. We can use the implied volatility of AAPL Apple’s Q1 earnings season. Apple was trading at 142. For an at-the-money call, expiring in four days, the implied volatility was 71%, and for the put was 70%. The historical volatility of Apple. And this is something that you’re charting software can show you, it makes sense to look at it in 10, 20, 30, 40 days increments. So if we were to look at the past 10 days, the historical volatility was 37%. But the call was trading at 71%. So what does it tell us? It tells us that the premium on this call, and also on the put, was running more expensive than usual. So now we can see, how this is affected by earnings. Now, let’s take a look at the implied volatility of an at-the-money Apple call from the same time that expired later out at, let’s say March 19th. So for calls expiring March 19th, you see right now the implied volatility is much, much, much lower at 43% for the call, and 43% as well for the put. The historical volatility over the past 60 days was 40.69%. Now compare this to the 43% and we see that it is pretty much in line here. So this means that the premium that was on these calls and puts on options that had 53 days until expiration was pretty much average. Why You Shouldn’t Sell Options Into Earnings Options traders are always talking about implied volatility and historical volatility, and now you know what it is. Now I want to tell you why I don’t sell options into earnings. I mean, even though the stock moves in the direction that you want to, your option premium is getting sucked out of there because of the volatility crash. You see, and this where, as an option seller, you might say, “don’t I want the premium to be as high as possible?” and yes, of course, you do. But let me make you very clear why I don’t sell options into earnings. If you have been following me for a while, you know that I love trading the Wheel, and as part of this strategy, we are selling options. Well you see, earnings plays are hit-and-miss. Sure, everybody can get lucky and most people who start trading expect their account to explode from one or two big trades. This is where we have some stocks that are jumping just dramatically. Looking at Intel, INTC over the last three earnings. Huge gap down right when we had earnings, then there was another earnings play, and Intel really crashed down hard again. Then also here during the last earnings season, initially, Intel went up but then started crashing down. You see, some people like these earnings plays because they believe the hype that they can make a lot of money with very little work involved, but see, trading just doesn’t work this way because, in reality, the key to becoming successful in trading is consistency and growing your account systematically. That’s what I mean when I talk about generating SRC profits, right? SRC is an acronym that stands for Systematic because I like to trade what I see and not what I think. This is why I use indicators and have a trading strategy that tells me when to trade, what to trade, when to enter and when to exit. The R stands for repeatable and by trading my plan, I’m able to find repeatable profit-making opportunities. The C in SRC profit stands for consistency. You see, I’d rather make slightly less money more often than biting off all my nails waiting for a big winner. As you know, part of my systematic approach to trading is to use The Wheel Strategy and the PowerX strategy. Now, especially with The Wheel strategy that, where I’m trading right now with you here, the idea is to get paid while you wait to buy the stock, and because I’m collecting premiums on the puts that I sell, I’m looking for stocks with higher volatility, right? This means making more money, and as a rule of thumb, I look for stocks with an IV, implied volatility, of at least 40%. The Wheel strategy can relatively safely produce profits, but I don’t recommend you to trade into earnings, at least that’s not what I do. So I will not target options with an expiration date that includes the company earnings report. I am trading options before we are running into earnings. So this is why I think it is very important that you know when trading options, whether it is buying or selling, that you don’t trade into earnings. At least that’s what I do because earnings are a wildcard and there’s just too much uncertainty. Remember, I’m not looking for fireworks here, I’m looking to systematically grow my account through consistent and repeatable strategies. Where To Check For Earnings Now, I want to give you two more resources, if you want to see for yourself who is reporting and when. These are two websites that are pretty cool that I personally use. So the first one here is “stock earnings.” If you go to stockearnings.com or they even have stocksearning.com, they will show you see the notable earnings that are coming up this week. Now, another one that many people like to use is earningswhispers.com. So that’s another great source for finding out when companies will report earnings because this way you can make sure that you’re not trading right into earnings. It’s always good to know when they report earnings if you have any open positions, whether you’re buying stocks or selling stocks so that you’re not caught off guard. So I hope that this helped you to see how earnings impact option prices and why I never sell options into earnings.
NASDAQ:INTCEducation
by rockwelltrading
Emotions In Trading: Biggest Account KillerTrading is fun and every trader is happy when their trades move in the right direction, but when a trade goes against you, you will experience a lot of emotions: Fear, anxiety, regret, doubt, maybe anger… … and these emotions in trading can lead to some bad decisions that could kill your account. In this article, I’ll show you how to control your emotions in trading so that you become a more relaxed trader. 1. Recognize Your Emotions When trading, you WILL experience emotions. The main emotions are: Excitement Greed Fear Anger Frustration Let’s talk about these emotions and how to deal with them. Emotion #1: Excitement When trades are going in your favor, it’s natural for you to be excited. We all love to see “green” in the account, but here’s the problem with that: when trades are going in your favor, you may be too excited and take on more risk. I have seen this over and over again, especially when trading “The Wheel” options strategy. During the first few trades, traders are usually very careful. They do a great job in picking the right stocks, then they take a few good trades and their account is up nicely! All of a sudden, they get overconfident. It seems that the trading system can’t lose, and so they increase risk because “things always turn out for the best,” but that’s when trouble starts. You’re no longer looking for “the best” trades. You feel invincible and want to make as much money in a short amount of time as possible. You start trading with more & more risk, and start choosing stocks that you shouldn’t choose. Here are a few examples: TLRY, SPCE, WKHS, LABU The premium is attractive, and you thought: “I’ll be fine, and if not, I can fly a rescue mission like Markus usually does,” but then you get stuck in a trade, like some of you are. So please be careful when you experience excitement because it quickly leads to overconfidence, and the markets like to show overconfident traders who’s boss! Emotion #2: Greed Next on the list of emotions in trading is greed. Greed is okay as long as you don’t let it take over your trading. My P&L so far is $69,205 at the time of this writing: My goal is to make $15,000 per month, and thus far, I have made almost $70,000 in less than 4 months! I could get greedy now and say, “Why not $20,000 per month? Or $30,000?” But I am going to keep trading with discipline and make sure that my greed doesn’t get the best of me. Be humble! Be grateful for what the market gives you because if you are greedy and try to squeeze the last penny out of the markets, the markets WILL put you in your place! Emotion #3: Fear The next emotion on the list is fear. Fear is a natural human emotion that we all have. In trading, it’s easy to let fear take over because you can see your profits diminishing in front of your eyes! Here’s the problem with fear: it’s a very strong and powerful emotion that has the power to paralyze you, and cause you to have a bad day — a VERY bad day: You’re sitting in front of your computer all day staring at the “red” numbers — the unrealized losses. Your mind goes crazy because you’re already thinking about how bad your trading account will be when you realize all these losses. But what a difference a day can make. Have you ever realized how one day it looks bad, and the next day everything is green again? Here is what you should do when FEAR takes over: – Step away from the computer. Shut it down! Go outside. Do something else. – Take some deep breaths and relax. – Do not panic, this will cause you more harm than anything else! The market is always changing, it’s just out of our control; so instead of panicking, think about what we can control. Emotion #4: Anger Next on the list of emotions in trading is anger. It’s easy to get angry at the markets because it’s so unpredictable! You can never tell what is going on and when it will change. And why are there always losers? Dang, I should have bought 30 minutes ago… but now the price has gone up again?! Happened to me yesterday: Every single trade that I entered was timed wrong. I could have gotten a much better fill 30 min later! But: anger does not get us anywhere. Anger leads to revenge trading, which can lead to catastrophic losses. Keep in mind: Markets don’t know who you are. Markets don’t care who you are. Markets don’t know if you are in a winning or losing trade. Markets don’t care if you try to push them around. If you try to fight the markets, you’ll lose. It’s important not to let anger dictate your trades! Emotion #5: Frustration The last emotion on our list is frustration. It’s easy to get frustrated with trading for the same reasons that I just mentioned: You can never tell what is going on and when it will change. And why are there always losers? Dang, I should have bought 30 minutes ago… but now the price has gone up again?! Some people react to these events with anger, others with frustration. Frustration can lead to impulsive trading, and that’s not a good thing. The best way to deal with frustration is to take some time out from the markets for a few hours or even days until your head clears up. 2. Understand The Effect of Emotions While Trading In a moment, I’ll share a technique with you on how to control these emotions but let’s first talk about the effect of emotions on your trading. It’s ok to have feelings. It’s ok to feel these emotions — these are HUMAN emotions. The problems start when you ACT on these emotions while trading. As you have seen, each of these emotions is causing a reaction, and none of them is good. Emotions cause irrational behavior… … which leads to impulsive decisions, … which leads to and bad trades, … that often leads to losses or drawdowns. Emotions in trading can be the number one account killer, so you MUST be able to control them. 3. Control Your Emotions By using THIS technique I have been trading for 20 years, and I still feel these emotions. They say you shouldn’t have any emotions while trading, and based on my experience, that’s not possible! The important thing is to make sure that you don’t ACT on your emotions. So how can you control your emotions? Stephen Covey said it best in his book “The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People”: Focus on what you CAN control, and don’t worry about what you can’t control. And if you think about it, there are only 2 things you CAN control: Your Thoughts Your Actions You can’t control what the markets are doing, you can’t control whether Hindenburg Research is releasing a report on a company you’re in, you can’t control when a big hedge fund gets in trouble and has to dump a bunch of positions, but you can choose how you react. Let me give you a personal example: As you know, I am in RIDE . And the position is MASSIVELY going against me. I could be angry at short-sellers, especially Hindenburg Research. I could be frustrated with Lordstowns PR efforts, which suck. I could look at my unrealized loss every day and fear “What will happen it Lordstown doesn’t recover?” I could have a lot of negative emotions around it, and NOTHING would change — other than me getting bitter, and maybe even depressed. So I keep following my plan, which is selling more premium. This week, I will make $1,050 on RIDE , no matter what the price is doing. If it goes up, good. If it goes down… oh well, I can’t change that. I just know THIS: I won’t let emotions dictate my day, and I won’t let emotions dictate my trading. I believe the Serenity Prayer says it best: “God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and wisdom to know the difference.“
TVC:NDQEducation
by rockwelltrading
3 Tips That Turned My Trading AroundHow did I get here? To moving from Germany in 2002 to the United States, and came here with $30,000 in my pocket. I put $20,000 in my trading account, and I put away $10,000 for a living. It wasn’t easy in the beginning. It was quite challenging. Now things are different. I mean, thus far in the first four weeks of 2021, I already made more money than I was able to put into my trading account in the very beginning. I know if you are there in the beginning right now, you may have $10,000, $20,000, or maybe even only $5,000 or less to get started. How do YOU get started? This is what I want to focus on in this article. You see, I’ve been trading for a long time and there are a lot of things that I’ve learned the hard way over the years, and I want to go over three very specific things that helped me to become a much better trader. Don’t Focus On The Outcome Of Just ONE Trade The first thing here is don’t focus on the outcome of one trade. You see, at the beginning of my trading career, I was really stuck on looking at what happens with just one trade, or what happened on just one particular day, but it is so important that you keep the longer range in perspective here. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. One of the few certainties in trading is that there will be losing trades no matter how good you are, but instead of beating yourself up about the P&L (profit and loss) of one specific trade, keep your eyes on the bigger picture. For example, I woke up one day, and I saw my account was down $12,000 and it actually got worse over the day getting as low as $17,000. Now I could have chosen to panic and focus on the red, but you see, this is why I say trading is a marathon and not a sprint. You need to focus on the broader performance over the course of a few days, a few weeks, or even a few months. Usually when you look at your account and you look at the P&L, what are your eyes usually drawn to? The red, right? You will focus on the one trade that is not working out in your favor. I can relate to this because I was just like this in the beginning. Think about it this way, your hand has five fingers. If you take a hammer and you smash on one of the fingers, you focus on the finger that hurts, and not on the other four that are fine. It’s human nature to focus on the bad stuff. But you see, when you do this, you’re losing sight of all the other good trades and also how you’re doing over the course of the year. This is super, super important, and you see, one of the keys to my success in trading is consistency and growing my account systematically. I do this through SRC profits. SRC is an acronym. The S stands for systematic. I like to trade what I see and not what I think. This is why use indicators and have a trading strategy that tells me what to trade when to enter, and when to exit. The R in SRC profit stands for repeatable, by trading my plan. By trading and following my plan, I’m able to find repeatable, profit-making opportunities. The C in SRC profits stands for consistency. You see, I’d rather make slightly less money more often than bite off all my nails waiting for the big winner. So focus on SRC profits. Systematic, repeatable, and consistent. So remember, it is more important to focus on this than on one trade, right? We will have losing trades and it’s unavoidable. Don’t Trade On Emotions The second thing to remember is, don’t trade on emotions. When you’re trading with your hard-earned cash, there’s certain to be emotions involved. When trading there are two main emotions to deal with: fear and greed. So as traders, we fear that we’ll have a loss, and lose money. There are actually two ways to control this fear. Number one, you want to keep your losses small. While losses are part of the business, if you keep them small you won’t be afraid of them. So I like to use, as a rule of thumb here, the 2% rule. The 2% rule means you never risk more than 2% of your account on any given trade. Think about it, if you have a $10,000 account, this translates into risking $200 per trade. Let me ask you this. If you have $10,000 in your account and you’re risking $200, are you afraid of losses? Probably not, right? If you lose $200, it doesn’t wipe out your account. You can live to fight another day. Now, number two is don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. I know you might have heard this before, but I just want to tell you a story from when I started. In the beginning, I scraped together $8,000 to start trading. This is before I moved to the U.S. and got serious about trading, and trust me, I could not afford to lose this. This was 23 years ago, and at that time I was 28. And when I was 28, 23 years ago, $8,000 was a lot of money for me. It was everything that I had in my savings account, so this is why I was super nervous when I lost money. It made me cramp up and it paralyzed me. I was checking my account every few minutes, anxiously see what’s going on. Have you ever done this? You check your account every 30 minutes? This is why it’s super important that you trade only with money that you can afford to lose. I know easier said than done, but keep in mind, if you don’t do this it will actually hurt your trading. On the other hand, there’s the fear of missing out or FOMO. That is another type of fear, which is really, really critical. This also happened to me at the very beginning of my trading career. So you see, how many times have you seen a stock that has skyrocketed, and then you beat yourself up for not getting in? If you’ve ever looked at a stock, see it take off without you, and thought, “Oh my gosh, I should get in” then tried to chase the stock higher, you’ve likely realized afterward that this was a problem. A classic example of this that you might remember is the craziness that happened with GME, GameStop, not too long ago. People started getting in at $20, then $40, then some at $160. Another typical example is Bitcoin. If you look back at Bitcoin here, what do you think? Where did most people get in in 2018? Did they get in when it was trading at $600 or $700, or did most people get in when Bitcoin was trading higher around $14,000, $15,000 maybe at $10,000? Most recently Bitcoin went up from $10,000 to $17,000. Where did most people get in on this move? Probably closer when it was topping $38,000. See this is where it’s the fear of missing out. For me, when I trade, I’m not going for these hot stocks. I like to trade based on my PowerX Optimizer and The Wheel strategy because they help me to keep my emotions out of my trading decisions by telling me what to trade, the best time to enter a trade, and the best time to exit. You see, if a stock has moved past my entry, I’ll pass on the trade and wait for the next one, because there will always, always, always, always be another trade. Trust me on this one, because if you are looking at PowerX Optimizer, and you see when you run the scanner every day, it is showing you a bunch of symbols. So for today, The PowerX Optimizer brought up seven symbols that I could have traded. Tomorrow it will be another two to eight. So obviously there is always another trade and this is why you shouldn’t be too scared. This is the next one and it is a big one because after all, why do we trade? We trade to make money, right? But there’s a saying, “Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered.” You see, as traders, we want to take the trade that makes the most money. We want to find the next Tesla, the next Bitcoin, maybe the next GameStop, but often times when we find them, we’re getting in way too late. So how do we battle this greed feeling? Well, this is where we focus on SRC profits and having a solid plan. Have A Plan This is actually the third thing that I’ve learned in my trading career. Have a trading plan, and don’t make it too complicated. A solid trading plan is a cornerstone of being a successful trader. There have been times when somebody will buy a stock, and when I ask them when they’re going to sell they say, “When I made enough money” or as someone said to me recently, “After it went to the moon,” right? When is this? Probably never. You got to have a plan and this is why I have these two trading strategies, which is The Wheel trading strategy, and it is the PowerX strategy. So what is a trading plan? A trading plan tells you three things, and I’ve touched on these already. A trading plan tells you what to trade, when to enter, and when to exit. When it comes to exiting, we exit either with a profit, or we are exiting with a loss because losses are part of our business as traders. So let’s take a closer look at the three elements of this trading plan. First of all, what to trade. This is in general, a decision that you need to make. Are you going to trade options, stocks, or futures? It’s important to define what you want to trade so that you don’t get distracted. See, for me personally, I trade stocks and I trade options. I’m buying options according to the PowerX strategy, and I’m also selling options, according to the rules of The Wheel strategy. Now, the next question is when exactly are you going to enter? And this is super important, think back to the idea of FOMO, the fear of missing out, right? You need to know at what price you want to enter a trade and you need to be able to move on it so that you get in, right? This is where limit orders come in handy. So this is where here for example, with when to enter I’m using again the PowerX Optimizer because it tells me exactly what is the option premium that I should be getting in order to achieve my goals. So for me, it is super important to have a tool that gives you this information and not guessing when you should get in. This is why for me, it helps me tremendously to do this on indicators, and the indicators that I like to follow are the RSI, the Stochastics, and the MACD. By doing this, you see, I can take the emotions out of trading which was rule number two. This is where, again, the PowerX Optimizer for me is an indispensable tool. Originally it was just programmed for me, my head coach Mark Hodge, and my son a few years ago. Now it’s available for everyone. It saves me hours and hours because it scans for me. Since I have my rules in place, I can quickly scan the charts to see what I’ll trade and what I won’t trade which makes my life so much easier. You need a great trading strategy, you need to have professional tools, and you need to have the right mindset. We can talk about strategies until we are blue in the face, but if you are not following the strategy, it is absolutely useless. What else does a trading strategy have to tell us? Well, this is where we’ll talk about exiting, and we need to know when to exit either with a profit, and in order to define this, we are using a profit target, or with a loss. For exiting with a loss, I always like to use, when it is possible, to have a stop loss. Using the logic “when I make enough money” is not a proper exit strategy. I know this because I did that in the beginning, and I was just swinging for the fences. I entered a trade risking $100 and I wanted to make $10,000, but it doesn’t work this way. Now, what are great exits? How can you define exits? There are several ways. You can use support and resistance, right? What are tools for exit rules? You can go for a certain percentage, it really depends on what works best for you. For me, it is a profit target and a stop loss based on the average daily range. The average daily range measures how much a stock move from top to the bottom, and a good rule of thumb is for a stop loss, you use one times the ADR, and for a profit target, you would use two times the ADR. For example, let’s pretend the ADR is 40 points, or instead of 40 points we could just say $40. So this means that my stop loss should be when the stock moves down $40. So if I have an entry of $850, we minus $40, this means at $810 I would get out. Now for my profit target, I would use two times my stop loss. So here in this case it would be $80. So again, if right now, my entry would be $850 plus these $80, right? So I would exit at $920. Now let’s just say I’m trading 10 shares, right? So this means that I would lose $400 if I’m wrong, but I would make $800 when I’m right. So I’m making twice as much on my winning trades than I lose on my losing trades. So stop loss and profit target based on the ADR. Now for The Wheel strategy, I do it slightly differently. For this strategy, I use 90% of the max profit. I can’t stress enough how important it is to be prepared when you are trading. If you’re trading without a plan, you’re failing. If not in the short term, then for sure in the longer term. Summary So brief summary. What are the three things that really turned my trading around? Let’s quickly summarize it. Number one, don’t focus on the outcome of one trade. Number two, don’t trade on emotions. And number three, have a trading plan. So these are the three tips that really turned my trading around, and I hope that this helps and that it helps you also to take your trading to the next level.
TVC:NDQEducation
by rockwelltrading
3
My Planning Process Revealed In 4 Simple StepsIn this article, I want to show you exactly how I am planning to achieve more in 12 weeks than others achieve in 12 months. First of all, I’m not saying that I’m an expert on goal setting, because I’m not. I’m just sharing the planning process that works for me, it might be completely different for you. The Most Important Thing For Me In My Planning Process One of the things that I have learned over the years that works best for me is, I don’t create a plan for everything. Let me explain what I mean by this. Many, years ago, I heard about a concept that they use in the military, which is called Backwards Planning. And you might have heard about this. Backwards Planning The idea here is that you start with the exact goal in mind and then plan backwards. I have heard this example many years ago where it was used in the military where they say, for example, let’s say you want to invade a camp on the enemy’s territory. So the idea here now, is to go backward and say, “OK, what exactly has to happen right before you invade the camp?” Well, this is where obviously you need to have your troops surrounding the camp. Then you go one step backward. What needs to happen before you have your troops surrounding the camp? And I’m making this up here as we go. I don’t recall this example exactly. I was not in the military, this is just an example that I’ve heard. So in order to surround this camp with your troops, what do you need to do? You need to get your troops to that camp that you want to invade. In order to do this, first of all, let’s assume that this is on foreign soil, so you need to get your troops to foreign soil. So this is what the military often uses, so I was told, which is backward planning. The idea here with backwards planning is that you create a detailed step by step plan of what to do. Here’s one of the challenges. I don’t do this, because based on my experience, the problem with this is what do you do if something goes wrong? So let’s say that one of the first steps is that you are getting your troops on foreign soil, well what happens if somehow you can’t because there’s bad weather or you’re getting attacked? This is where I found that often when you do this, the whole plan becomes kind of useless. This is where for me, I figured out that planning can be overwhelming. It can make the process daunting and can make me feel paralyzed. I don’t know about you, but what happened in the past before I did what I’m about to show you here is, I got paralyzed. I never achieved my goals because I couldn’t get over the first hurdle of planning. I want to show you exactly what I do these days to avoid this. 4 Steps To My Planning Process Step One: I write down my goal. Step Two: I plan the next two to three steps, and here’s why. My idea is, and this is what I found to be true, when I walk the first steps the path will reveal itself. Imagine walking down a foggy path. You don’t actually see the end of the path where it is leading. When I have a goal, I realized that when I plan out the first few steps and start walking, as soon as I get towards the end where I can see, the path will again reveal itself. So this is where, going back to my planning process, it works really for me to plan the next two to three steps. Step Three: I take action and complete these steps. Step Four: When the fog starts clearing and I see the next step, then I add more steps or to dos to it. Planning Process Example This article is all about my planning process and how to achieve more in 12 weeks than most people achieve in 12 months. So let me give you a very specific example of how I’m doing this. One of my goals is to buy a resort in Mexico. Goal & Overview Usually I write myself a quick overview of what is it that I want to achieve. I’m meeting with my private Mastermind members usually three times per year in exotic locations to trade, relax and make money together. In the past, we have done it in the Cayman Islands, Bahamas, Puerto Rico, and Mexico and other locations, but finding a hotel with reliable Wi-Fi as well as getting all of our equipment there has been really challenging. Right now I think that there’s a tremendous opportunity because I know for a fact that the travel and hospitality industry is hurt because of Covid-19. I don’t know for a fact, but there might be a possibility to buy a hotel or resort for $0.60 to $0.70 on the dollar. So if that’s the case, it would be possible to make a 50% ROI within one to two years and that’s not bad at all, right? It could be even more, it could be 100%. So this is now where I write down a few to dos. This is where it goes back to my planning process. So I write down my goal and an overview of what I want to accomplish. So now you know why I’m doing this, what I want to accomplish here, and now I plan the next two to three steps. Planning Process Steps My first step is I want to get an idea of what kind of investment is needed. Is a resort around one million dollars? Two million dollars? Is it more, is it less? Then I want to get an idea if this is at all possible to make money with, because ultimately if I can make money with it, why wouldn’t I do it? I mean, just having a hotel to have a hotel does not make sense. So what’s the best location? The location should be up to 1,000 miles away from Austin and here’s why. I’m planning to buy a plane, and this plane that I have in mind right now has a reach of 1,000 miles. So I’m looking at possibly Mexico, Puerto Rico, Belize, Dominican Republic, Honduras, who knows. This is where I first wanted to find out what a possible price point is? Last weekend I was in Sacramento meeting with my head coach Mark, my CEO Debbie, and marketing director Jared. I shared this crazy idea with them and we had some fun looking for hotels online. Based on my research, I’ve found it’s probably between 1 to 2 million dollars that I would have to invest for anywhere between 20 and 30 rooms. That was fairly easy and only took me a few hours. I can now move on to the next step in the planning process. Now the question is, is it possible at all to make money with this? Because if not, then I can stop right here. Does It Make Sense? I have been investing in apartment complexes for the past five years. To give you an example, I bought an apartment complex with 48 units here in Austin for 2.3 million dollars. I’m making $30,000 in rent per month so I know how to run this. $30,000 in rent per month is covering my financing, which is a mortgage, also insurance. This is also taking care of the property management, utilities, maintenance, renovations as well as capital improvements. Now I know, having an apartment complex is not the same as running a hotel or resort, but I just wanted to see if this is feasible, and in a moment, I’ll show you why this is making sense. So you see, I already know on 48 units, which is quite a lot, on $30,000, I can do all of this and I’m making a profit. So that’s good, not a big profit but I’m making a profit. Now the question is if I need $30,000, let’s divide this by 30 days because now we are going to the resort, this means that I would have to bring in $1,000 in revenue per day. The resorts that I started to look into were around 26 rooms, 17 rooms, 22 rooms, so let’s just say that I will find something around the 2 million dollar mark that has maybe 25 rooms. This is what I’m looking for. So the key question is, can I make $1,000 per day in revenue, not in profits, with 25 rooms? It sounds like it’s possible, right? Again, I have no clue. There’s probably more vacancy, but if I can rent out half of the rooms every day, so 50% vacancy, and I rent them out for $80 per day, this means that I would have rented 12 rooms for $80, which is $1,000. I know that there’s housekeeping, so there’s probably more than property management and maintenance, right? But I believe that these are quite realistic assumptions. If they are not, and if you have experience in this space, leave me a comment below and let me know. Summary Here’s the important thing. Let’s tie this back to what today’s show is all about, right? How I get more done in 12 weeks than most people get in 12 months. Now, here’s the deal. How long did it take me to do the first two things thus far? Well, I can tell you four to five hours. And now I know whether it makes sense to pursue it before I go down a rabbit hole. What is my point with all of this? My point is to stick to something really, really simple when going through the planning process. Keep it easy where you set a goal, then plan the next two to three steps. Or if you want to go crazy, as I did here, we could do three to five steps. Then the most important thing is to take action and complete these first steps. Once you do this, you’ll see whether it makes sense and you can plan the next three to five steps and complete this process.
TVC:NDQEducation
by rockwelltrading
Best Brokerage Account 2021Let’s talk about the best brokerage account, and in order to do this, I want to compare five different brokers for you. I’ll be comparing tastyworks, the current broker that I’m currently trading with, Robinhood because many traders are using it, TD Ameritrade because it’s wildly popular, Interactive Brokers because it’s great for international traders, and we will talk about a new broker that I’ve been using for the past couple of months, so I have an account with them. I want to talk about this and compare them to the others and tell you why I really like this new broker and why I’m in the process of switching over all my accounts. The first thing to keep in mind when you’re comparing different brokers, you have to pick criteria that fit your needs. These are my criteria and they might be great for you, or your criteria may be different. So what I’m looking for when finding the best broker. My Criteria For Selecting A Broker So the first thing that I would like to know is how much do I have to pay in commissions per month? I use a certain baseline for this. With my current broker, tastyworks, I looked back over the past three months and I wanted to see how much I spent. From 1/1 through 3/31 I made 150 trades and traded 1,665 contracts. So I use this as my baseline in order to compare these different brokers. I took to see what if I make 150 trades, or 50 trades per month and 500 contracts that I’m trading per month. Again, for you, it might be different, but we need to have somehow a baseline, especially when we are comparing the commissions per month that I’m spending right now, that I would be spending on Robinhood, TD Ameritrade, interactive brokers, and this new broker that I’m trading with. Now, every single broker has some other fees, and you need to see which of these fees are important to you. Here are the ones that are important to me. I want to know if there any wire fees and if so, how much are they? Also, are there any assignment fees? Assignment fees are important to me because I’m trading The Wheel Strategy, and part of this strategy is getting assigned shares, so I want to know how much this will be. Information about their customer support is also important to me. What happens if I need help and I need to call or e-mail them? Do they have an online chat feature? So this is important for me. What about the platform? Every single broker offers a platform for you, so which one best fits your needs? This is where we get a little bit more technical because I want to talk about levels three and four. What does this mean? Well, it means that, especially when you are selling options which you do with The Wheel Strategy, you need certain option trading permissions, so you want to know how easily can you get level three and four if this is important to you. Now, last but not least, I love having live data. I don’t know about you, but I want to make sure that live data available with these brokerages. I also want to know how much it costs if anything. So let’s get started and let’s talk about the first broker here, tastyworks. tastyworks I am currently using tastyworks, and I know exactly how much money I spent on tastyworks. On this particular account, I spent $550 dollars in commissions. For the baseline of 50 trades and 500 contracts per month, I spent around $180 in commissions. Now for tastyworks, how much are wire fees? When I wire money out, which is once a month, it costs me $25. What about the assignment fees? The assignment fees for tastyworks are $5. I want to explain to you exactly how they are charging. So with tastyworks, they charge $1 per contract and they do have a $10 maximum. So you’re never paying more than $10. Even if you’re trading 50 contracts, you will only pay $10. They also have no closing fees and this applies to options trading. For stock trading, these days, trading stocks is free pretty much everywhere. So we want to worry about options here because that’s what I’m mainly trading. What about customer support? I must say their support is good. The experiences that I have had thus far when I contact them by chat are very quick. When contacting them through chat, they usually only have me on hold for three to ten minutes. Now, what I do not like about tastyworks? You cannot call them, and sometimes I would rather speak with someone on the phone, so this is why I’m not labeling it “very good,” I’m just labeling it as “good” because you can’t call them. As for their platform, I think it is pretty good. However, I’m just using a fraction of the platform, so for me, the most important function is actually placing trades. I’m not using any of the complicated curves that you can have and all of the analysis tools, but again, if this is important to you, then you need to make sure that this platform meets all of your needs. For me, it does what I need it to do, which is entering trades. Now level three and four is actually something that is quite easy to obtain with tastyworks. So no problems there, and live data is actually free. Robinhood As for Robinhood, how much would you pay in commissions per month? Well, Robinhood has always advertised you pay zero commissions, and that is true. For options trading, you also pay zero dollars, which is actually pretty cool. Wire fees are a whopping zero dollars with assignment fees being zero dollars. So thus far Robinhood is really good in terms of commissions, right? Well, what about customer support? Now, full disclosure, I do not have an account with Robinhood, so I’ve never contacted them, but based on what I have heard, it is pretty bad. What about based on what I’ve seen? I don’t know if you’ve been following the news, but back when we had the GME craziness, Robinhood restricted trading for several days. I don’t think that was fair. I don’t think that they should have done that, but they did. This makes it seem to me they don’t have their customers in mind. Now, again, full disclosure, I don’t have an account with them and never contacted them. I’ve just heard that customer support is pretty bad. What about the platform? I don’t know first hand, but I’ve heard it’s good. Again, this is where I go from hearsay because I don’t have an account with Robinhood, never had one, & don’t want one. In terms of levels three and four, I heard from traders who have an account with them say it is fairly difficult to obtain levels three and four. If you’re trading The Wheel Strategy, this is super important. As for their live data, it’s free. TD Ameritrade Now on to TD Ameritrade. How much would you spend with TD Ameritrade based on my baseline? You would pay 65 cents per the contract that you trade. So if you’re trading like me, 500 contracts per month, times 65 cents, that comes to $325. What about the wire fee? The wire fees here are also $25, the same as with tastyworks, but assignment fees are zero. Now, what about customer support? Customer support used to be good. Right now I would say it is decent. There was a time when you could call them they would pick right up. These days you are probably on hold for anywhere between 15 minutes and 2 hours because they got bought by Charles Schwab. There seems to be a lot of consolidation going on and because of this, and because of this, it seems that customer support is suffering. What about the platform? ThinkOrSwim is probably one of the most powerful trading platforms out there, and it is fairly complex. For me, I just need to enter simple orders such as buy and sell orders. So for me personally, it is too complex. It took me a long time to learn it. For those of you who have ThinkOrSwim, you either love it or you hate it. Either way, it is so complex, so you probably had to spend hours and hours learning it. Levels three and four are fairly simple to acquire, and also live data here is free. Interactive Brokers Now with Interactive Brokers, I personally do have three accounts. I’ve been using them since 1999. They’re a great choice for international traders. However, Interactive Brokers charges 65 cents per contract. So very similar here to TD Ameritrade. If I would trade on Interactive Brokers I would actually spend $325. The wire fee here is a little bit cheaper, $10. The assignment fees, if you get assigned, are zero. Now their customer support, based on my experience is pretty bad. I’ve tried contacting them by chat, by phone, by email, and if you’re trying to contact them by chat, you will most likely be on hold for at least 20 minutes. If you try to contact them by phone it is not unusual to wait 30 to 60 minutes until you get connected. Their platform here is actually simple to use, but I find it’s pretty clunky. So just if you want my opinion and again, this is just my opinion. You on the other hand might find this platform blazing fast and think it’s the best trading platform there is. Now, in terms of levels three and four, yes, it is fairly easy to obtain, but they charge you $14.50 for live data, so just keep this in mind. This is a monthly fee so you just need to know what you need. So with the new broker, and I’ll tell you in a moment who that is, but when I saw all this mess going on in February where several brokers restricted trading, I said, “you know what, this is not fair.” When I heard from some of you say, “My broker suddenly raised the margin requirements and I didn’t have a margin problem before and now I have a margin call,” or that you’re on hold forever before you get any customer support, I set out to find a great broker, and here is the new broker that I’m currently using. Tradier The new broker that I’m using is Tradier. I will move all of my accounts over to them because of what they’re offering. The commission per month, it’s a $10 flat fee. $10 no matter how many options you trade. This is a special rate for those of you reading these articles, and following me on YouTube. So I think it is an absolutely cool model because it is a flat fee no matter how many contracts you trade. Now, this, of course, is great if you are trading a lot of contracts like me. You have seen it, 500 contracts per month, with 150 trades, so I’m a very, very active trader. I think it is absolutely cool that instead of paying $180 per month, all I’m paying right now is a $10 flat fee. That is pretty cool. Now the wire fees are a little bit more expensive. The wire fees are $35, but again, I’m using it once a month. So, therefore, if I’m adding this up, all right, and I say, well, that is $205 per month versus $45 a month, and for me, that adds up. Right. It’s only a $10 difference from tastyworks, and I’m not wiring money in and out like crazy. I’m just wiring it out once a month and that is okay. So the assignment fee here is a little bit higher, at $9 as of right now. So over the past three months, I had 3 wires and I had 8 assignments. This is for the year. This means that per month I have 1 wire and approximately 3 assignments. So as you can see, this is why the assignment costs here for me are not that important. Again, these are my numbers, your numbers might be completely different, and that is fine. This is where the cool thing is you have probably your brokerage account statement, so you can take a look at that, and then you know exactly how much you’re paying right now. So the customer support, I must say based on my experience, over the past two months that I’ve been using them, is awesome. What do I mean by awesome? By awesome I mean that I can pick up the phone right now. I can call them, and within two to three rings, somebody picks up. The customer support team is in North Carolina, so I’m not going overseas, they are here in the United States. They have been super responsive by email and by phone. I don’t even know if they offer a chat on the website because I was just so happy that I can finally talk to somebody. Again, I’m coming from tastyworks, and on tastyworks, I’ve never, ever been able to talk to somebody because their business model is that they’re all doing it by chat, so I love this. What about their platform? Their platform is simple, and in my opinion, it is super easy to learn. So you can learn this platform in literally 10 minutes because that’s what they do. They just say, hey, if you want to enter trades, which I want to do, it’s fine. They don’t have all of the bells and whistles that the other platforms have. So I would say it’s more comparable to Robinhood instead of a platform like TD Ameritrade because with Robinhood you just enter the trade and it is good. So it’s simple and easy, does the trick for me. Levels three and four are super easy to get. And live data is free. So this is what this new broker is all about. For our members, we have created in our private community a special discussion group, and in this discussion group, we are here to help you, support you, with this particular brokerage. Which again is called Tradier. So, for example, people have been asking if they open an account for business, an LLC for example? And the answer is yes. So you can ask us if you want to, of course, you can contact them. So this is what we have here. We have a Tradier discussion group. We do have tutorials for you such as videos on how to open an account, how to set up a paper trading account, and that reminds me, they offer paper trading. As you know, I highly recommend that you trade on a paper trading account first. There are also videos on how to fund your Tradier account, how to place a stock entry order for the PowerX Strategy, how to place options order for the PowerX Strategy, entering orders for The Wheel Strategy, how to check your positions. Summary OK. So, again, my promise is to show you the best broker and this is the best broker for my needs. Now, for your needs, it might be different, but I thought that I compare here that the top five brokers that most traders are using right now.
TVC:NDQEducation
by rockwelltrading
Are Trading Courses Worth It?So let’s talk about trading courses. Are these trading courses really worth it? As you know, there’s definitely no shortage of them out there. With all these free videos out there, do you really need to buy a trading course, and if so, what is the best trading course? What Is The “Best” Trading Course? Let’s actually start with the elephant in the room. Which trading course is the best? This is one of the questions that always hear, as well as, “Which trading course should I buy?” and “What is the best trading course?” Here’s something that may surprise you. There is no “best” trading course. You see there’s only “best for you.” So what does this mean? This is where many traders make a mistake in the beginning. You need to know what you want from a course before you buy it. So what do you want from a course? You probably want to make a lot of money, and that’s cool, but how exactly do you want to do this? Criteria To Consider Let’s go over some criteria. What do you want to trade? I mean, do you want to trade stocks, or do you want to trade options? Maybe you don’t care and you just want to trade whatever makes the most money, and that’s cool, we can talk about this. Do you want to day trade or do you want to swing trade? What’s the difference? When day trading, you need to be able to spend time in front of the computer. You might not be in the position right now to be able to do this, to be in front of the computer. So, therefore, swing trading might be better suited for you. Another important factor to consider, your account size. Do you have a small or large account? This is important to consider depending on your goal. Are you trading for growth, meaning that you want to grow your account, or are you trading for income? So do you want to have a strategy that you can trade on a larger account, like a $200,000-$400,000 account, or are you in the stage in your trading life where you have a rather small account of maybe $5,000 or $10,000 and you want to grow it? These are important criteria to consider when deciding what the best trading course is for you. There is no one-size-fits-all trading course. I mean, I would love to tell you, “you know what? I have the perfect trading course for you.” This actually might be true depending on your criteria. It’s really super important that you understand what to look for when you look for a training course. Let me give you just a few more criteria that I think are universal criteria for any training course. For example, is the instructor of the training course a real trader? I mean, is he actually putting money on the line? Is he trading a real account? Or is he just showing you woulda, coulda, shoulda trades and say, “You know what? Here is how much money you could have made if you bought Tesla last year and now it is up, 500%” or something like this?” So is the instructor actually placing real trades so that you see he is actually trading for income? That’s actually a bonus, right? So I would say, are they trading for income? How is the instructor making money? Because honestly, I think if you can’t make it as a trader, if you cannot trade for income, you have no business teaching others. In my opinion, one criteria of great trading courses are those that provide coaching and support. Now let’s talk about are trading courses worth it? Are Trading Courses Worth It? So let’s talk about this and let’s be honest. There are many free resources available out there. Especially on YouTube. This is where I think it is very important that you don’t feel pressured to buy anything just yet, especially if you’re a beginner or new to trading. You want to have a basic understanding first. You want to learn some basics like how to place an order. You should learn the difference between a call option and a put option? What is theta in options? So for basic stuff like this, I don’t believe that you need to pay anybody anything. I mean, on my Youtube channel there are probably more than 700 videos you can watch, all for free. Here’s the important thing. Trading courses, or no trading courses. Trading courses are not the magic bullet that will solve all your problems, and here’s why. You see, trading is a skill. Think about it, how do you acquire a skill? Do you acquire skills from just reading a book or watching a video? No, you actually have to do it. If I wanted to learn how to paint, is it enough if I just read a book on how to paint to become a great painter? No, I have to try it. If you want to learn how to play golf should you just get a book that tells you how to play golf, and you read the book and now you can magically play golf and participate in tournaments? No. Same in trading, right? Trading is a skill like everything else, and so I hate to break it to you, but there are no shortcuts to success. You have to put in the work. It not what you want to hear, but if you were hoping that I give you the magic course that automatically makes your money hand over fist, honestly it doesn’t exist. A trading course teaches you the basics and it teaches you some tips, but you have to learn how to trade for yourself. How do you do this? The best way to do this is on a simulator. I want to give you a very specific example from my personal life right now. My daughter is 15, her name is Vivian, and Vivian has a learner’s permit. She would like to get to her driver’s license once she’s 16. Now, there is the possibility that parents, here in Texas at least, can teach their kids how to drive. So I am Vivian’s instructor, and so I am sitting next to her in the car, but she has to drive. What we are doing right now, we are putting in 50 hours of driving. Vivian has a little spreadsheet on the back of her door to her room where she’s marking off every time that we are driving for an hour. I wish that this would exist for traders, that they have to put in at least 50 hours on a simulator with an experienced instructor before they trade live, but unfortunately, this is not how it works. We do 50 hours of driving, and out of these, we have our goals. For example, we will do 10 hours of night driving, because driving at night, as you can imagine, is different than driving throughout the day. We will also do 10 hours of interstate driving. If you’re on the interstate you need different skills because now suddenly everything is much faster. This is how we have broken it down into different skills that she needs to acquire. So are trading courses worth it? To recap what I mentioned earlier, I believe that trading courses are worth it, and here’s why, with a few “IF’s.” I believe a trading course is worth it IF the instructor is an experienced trader. Think about it, I mean, in order to be able to teach my daughter Vivian how to drive, I need to be an experienced driver. I need to have a driver’s license. I need to have a spotless record otherwise, I wouldn’t be allowed to teach her, right? If you want to learn golf, wouldn’t you hire an experienced golfer instead of just asking, your neighbor? I believe this is important because after all, we want to make money with trading. Now, the other important thing is, trading courses are worth it if the instructor can give you shortcuts. So what do I mean by this? I mean, you can acquire any skill on your own. I believe this. I believe that probably you could learn how to play golf if you read a book, watch a few videos, and then just put a lot of time and effort in there, but what do I mean by shortcuts? Shortcuts are there to save you time and money, especially when trading, right? I mean, if the trading course, and if the instructor can help you to avoid a few losing trades. Losing trades are easily a few hundred dollars, sometimes a few thousand dollars. However, if you could trade losing $1,000 versus investing a few hundred dollars in of course would you do this? Or if you could avoid losing $20,000, would you invest $2,000 in a course? Probably, right? I also think that this is super important, especially for trading, but I believe trading courses are worth it if there are coaching and support involved, and here is what I mean by this. Most of you already know I am offering a trading tool, it’s the PowerX Optimizer. Some of you have seen me using it on my “Coffee With Markus” Live streams on my Youtube channel, and I use it every day in my trading. But here’s the deal. A tool is just helping you a little bit, right? I believe that this is a bonus. So a trading course is super helpful if there are tools involved. Back to the golfing example, if you want to learn how to play golf and you get lessons from a pro let’s say, he says, “Oh, yeah, and by the way, before you diddle around and get the wrong clubs, I actually have the perfect clubs for you.” I mean, wouldn’t that be much easier? So this is where the tool that I personally use and that is available to you is the PowerX Optimizer, and I love it. We are coming out with a version 2.0 soon. So I think training is very important. So this is where, for example, a training course is helpful if it gives you the important things about getting started, but then also of how exactly do you trade stocks, and how exactly do you trade options. If we are looking at trading stocks, you need to know what are the different order types, how do you place a stock to the long? How to short? How to set profit targets and stop losses, right? So this is one of the things where it’s really important that a trading course shows you how to do this, but that’s what I mentioned earlier. I think the coaching and support here are super important, right? Because this is where you need ongoing handholding. For me, this makes a lot of sense. Summary So are trading courses worth it? Which trading course is the best? It really depends on what do you need. I know that some of you have wasted a lot of time and money on various training courses just to find out that it is not for you. This is why I say before you buy a course, okay, know what your goals are. Know what you want from a course. I think that is super important. Know exactly what do you need help with. Then you choose the right one because again, there’s no one size fits all. Trading is a skill, you have to put in the work. I wish I could tell you, “Oh, you know what? All you need to do is invest in the PowerX Optimizer and tomorrow you will be the best trader in the world.” No, you know that I’m giving you a 90-day money-back guarantee because I believe that it takes maybe a week, two, three, four weeks to really learn how to use this tool, to practice on a simulator, and I don’t want you to feel rushed at all to say, “Oh, I’m under the clock and I only have 30 days to evaluate this tool and this course,” right? I mean, take your time. Take 90 days, because most traders fail in the first 90 days and I want to make sure that you are succeeding
TVC:NDQEducation
by rockwelltrading
Why Options Are DangerousIn today’s article, I want to answer a few questions about why options can be dangerous. What are the risks of trading options? Are puts or calls riskier? Why is option selling risky? We’ll also talk about the safest options trading strategy. So let’s get started and let’s jump right in. Buying Calls & Puts First of all, you need to understand that there are different types of options. There are call options and put options. So calls versus puts, which one is riskier? Some people think that trading puts are riskier, while some people might think that trading calls are riskier, but this is not the case at all. The key question is that you should ask yourself is, are you BUYING options or are you SELLING options? There’s a huge difference between buying and selling, as well as different levels of risk involved between the two. So when you’re buying options, the maximum amount you can lose is the premium you paid. So let talk about a very specific example. Let’s look at a trade I took with TSLA and let’s say that we want to trade a call. So let’s maybe say a 700 call and right now the price is $700. What is the maximum that you can lose? Let’s say that we are bullish on Tesla and we believe that Tesla might go above $750, and we want to buy a call with a strike price of 750. So a 750 strike call expiring next week costs around $1.70 (at the time of writing this article on March 19th, 2021). Now options come in 100 packs, so this means that you’re paying $170 for this option. So in this case, if TSLA does not go above 170 by next Friday, you would lose the $170. So this is very easy, the maximum amount that you can lose is the premium that you paid. On the other hand, you are bearish on Tesla. You believe that it might actually go down to $560 so you’re thinking about a put option with a strike price of 560 that expires next week. A put with a 560 strike price expiring next week is $4.50 so a little bit more, pricier here. Again, since options come in 100 packs, this means that your total risk here is $450 per option traded. It’s the same risk here because it doesn’t really matter whether you’re buying calls or you’re buying puts. The maximum amount that you can lose is the premium. Now, on the other hand, there are SELLING options, and when you’re selling options, this is when your risk is almost unlimited. When you’re buying options, and let’s just say you want to buy a call, this means that you want the stock to go up. So going back to our TSLA example, if we would buy a call 750, that it is expiring next week for $170, if Tesla goes above 750, we make money. If Tesla goes below 750 or stays at 750, we lose the premium or $170. So not really a big deal. Now, how much money could we make on this one? Well, if we buy a call for 750, we have the right to buy 100 shares of Tesla for $750. So let’s say that Tesla closes at $800. So in this case, our profit is $800, minus the $750 that we bought Tesla for, which is $50 per share. Since options come in 100 packs, this means that we would make $5,000 in profits. This is why people love trading options. Because if you think about it, we’re risking $170 and can potentially make $5,000 if Tesla would go up to $800. Now, let’s quickly do an example here for buying a put. So buying a put and in this case, you want the stock to go down. Using our example for TSLA again, we will buy a put with the strike price of 560 for $4.50. So our total risk here is $450. So now if Tesla goes below $560, the strike price here, we make money. Now, if Tesla stays above 560, we lose the premium. But that is the maximum that we can lose. So even if Tesla rallies right now to 800, we would only lose $450. So that is pretty cool, right? Let’s say Tesla goes to $500. So we were able to sell the shares for $560, now we can buy it back for 500. So this would be $60 per share. Since one option equals 100 shares, it means that we would make $6,000 in profits. So as you can see, with options, you can benefit from a stock going up, as well as a stock going down, and the really cool thing is that you can risk a little to make a whole lot. Now, here’s the challenge with this. If you buy a call, you only make money if TSLA is really going above $750. So if it stays below, that’s not enough for the buyer of an option to make money. If Tesla goes sideways well, same here, right? Then you not only won’t benefit from it, but you also lose the premium. If Tesla goes down, you also lose the premium. So if you think about it, there are actually three ways how you can lose money and only one way how you can make money, and this is if Tesla really shoots up. This is why many people, including myself, are interested in SELLING options. Selling Calls & Puts What are the pros of selling options? The first pro is that you don’t need to be right about the direction of a stock to make money. Here is an example I’m in right now (at the time of this writing on March 19th, 2021) with LL Lumber Liquidators. So right here, Lumber Liquidators, I actually sold a put with a strike price of 22. When does the buyer of a put make money? Well, the buyer of a put makes money if it goes below $22. For me, the seller of a put, I make money if Lumber Liquidators goes up, it goes sideways, or it goes down. It can go down all the way to 22. This is a drop of a little over 10%. So if you think about it, if LL can go down by 10% and I am still making money and this is why again, this is why selling options is so fascinating. So you don’t need to be right about the direction and you can keep the premium. So here’s the deal, the premium that you receive is exactly what the buyer is giving you. So the premium is rather small, right? So the cons are the premium is rather small, and this is where your risk is almost unlimited. So back to our example here with Lumber Liquidators. I sold a 45 of the 22 puts, and I received $0.20 per share, so $20 per put option. $20 multiplied by the 45 options means that I’m making $900. So this is the premium that I receive. However, here’s the deal. The buyer of a put has the right to sell 100 shares at the strike price. So what does it mean for me? So the seller, which is me, has to buy LL at $22, and again, this is where one option means 100 shares. So for me here, since I’m having 45 options, this means that I would have to buy 4,500 shares. Because this is where we get to the risks of this strategy here. Now, again, Lumber Liquidators can drop more than 10% and I will be just fine. But what happens if it drops below, let’s say to $20 from $22. OK? So I would have to buy Lumber Liquidators at $22, and therefore I would lose $2 per share. Here, in this case, I have 4,500 shares times $2, this means that I would lose $9,000. Now you get the idea of why selling options is fairly risky, because I’m receiving $900, but if it only goes down by $2, I’m already losing $9,000. But what if it gets worse? What if LL drops to, let’s say, $15, right? Again, I have to buy LL at 22, so I would lose $22 minus $15, $7 per share. Since I have 4,500 shares, time $7, this is where I would lose $31,500. OK. So as you can see, it is super risky if you don’t know what you’re doing. Now, I have been doing this for a long time here, selling premium, and I’ve been doing really, really well. Analyzing Risk With RIDE Let talk about a particular trade that I made with RIDE . I sold the 21.50 put and RIDE dropped. I sold 47 contracts, 47 contracts, which means that I own 4,700 shares at a price of 21.50. RIDE right now (March 19th, 2021) is trading at $13.50. So right now, RIDE is at 13.50. So this means that I lose (21.50, minus 13.50) $8. So I’m losing $8 per share and I’m having 4,700 shares, bringing me down to a total of $37,600. Now, let’s talk about it. How much money did I make selling premium on RIDE? Just on RIDE here. I sold the puts initially, then I sold calls, I sold calls, and I just sold a few more puts. In total on RIDE, thus far, I collected $4,935 in premium, but I also have an unrealized loss of $37,600. So it’s super important that you understand that there is risk involved. Now I know my way out of this. I know how I can trade my way out of this if needed. So I collected $4,900, but right now I’m down that amount. However, this means that my net loss is if I would close it right now, which I’m not intending to do, would be $37,000 minus the $4,935, let’s just say $5,000 to make the math easy, is $32,600. That would be a real loss. This is why it’s super important that you understand the risks when you’re trading options. Safest Options Trading Strategy Now, one of the questions that I receive all the time is, “what is the safest options trading strategy?” The safest options trading strategy is covered calls, and here’s why. When you are trading covered calls, it means you own the stock, and now you are selling calls against it. So what does it mean when you are selling calls? When you are selling calls, it means you have to sell the stock at a certain price. Back to my example with RIDE I own 4,700 shares, and I own those at $21.50. So this is where if I sell calls at 22.50, so this means that I have to sell RIDE shares at $22.50. So how much money do I make? So I bought at $21.50, and I sell at $22.50, so this means that I’m making a dollar profit, $1 profit per share. And since I have 4,700 shares I would make $4,700 plus the premium I receive for selling the call. OK. So this is in addition, and therefore, covered calls are by far the safest options trading strategy. The only way how you can lose with this strategy is when the stock goes down. This is where you already own the stock, and therefore, if you want to sell calls against it, it is the safest option trading strategy, at least based on my experience and my opinion.
REducation
by rockwelltrading
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