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Tdsequential

Buy Bitcoin: Tom DeMark 9-13-9Hi everyone. Erm... please check this out and discuss? Do you remember that price spike around October 15th around the time everyone was talking about Tether? I actually called that move back then and drew a downtrend line which I subsequently removed. Because of my analyses and this recollection I redrew this supply/demand line and the results are interesting. I apologize I don't quite have the words to describe everything perfectly right now but I hope that the sequence of images are illustrative enough when combined with what I've been sharing recently... I worked on describing this in images for some time now and am a bit tired I think. This is what I posted yesterday in another forum, for reference: -------------------- The way I'm looking at my Bitcoin charts it looks like we have until about Apr 01 to shoot for $8500. If this happens we can maybe turn $5000 into support. If we don't break $5000 by Apr 01 I think we could see a test of $750! So at this point I think maybe we have until the 18th (3 days) to break the downtrend line or we fall towards 2500-2700 -------------------- ^ to me I think a breakout to the upside is more probable.
Long
by zerocashcool
5
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 325)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge *Weekly Chart* Consensio: Experimenting with EMAs, have been backtesting and seeing some exciting results. S MA < P < M MA < L MA ( M MA right in line with top of bear channel Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear channel Horizontals: R: $3,662 | S: $3,581 Trendline: Channel Parabolic SAR: At $4,469 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 0.9% spread. Getting very close to re entering Contango. BTCUSDSHORTS: Look at how well the weekly SAR’s have been working! Maybe it won’t pull back to ~21,000 like I thought. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% TD’ Sequential: Weekly G2 = G1 | Daily G4 = G3 Ichimoku Cloud: Currently testing Tenkan-Sen for resistance. Relative Strength Index: At 36 Average Directional Index: Very bearish. ADX at 38 with -DI > + DI Price Action: 24h: -0.7% | 2w: +2.1% | 30d: -0.1% Bollinger Bands: MA = $4,555 Stochastic Oscillator: Just made bullish cross. Watch for it to cross 20 to confirm. Summary: There are a couple very bearish indicators and everything else is looking very bullish. Bearish Indicators 9 Week EMA trending down and in confluence with top of bear channel. Currently testing a bearish 50 day EMA. Average Directional Index shows that we have just started another bear trend and have a long way to go (which is line with my perspective of not having capitulated and needing to return to P1) Bullish Indicators The most bullish indicator to me right now is the large cap alts. ETH just close a weekly candle above it’s bear channel (by < $2) and I strongly expect it to follow Litecoin’s lead. XRP has yet to make a move from horizontal support and when it does I think it will melt some faces. If alts rally then BTC will too. That expectation is confirmed by the futures market being in backwardation and above the 2 week high. If this week breaks $3,729 then it will be a weekly green 2 above a green 1. The weekly just made it’s first close above the 4 EMA in 2019. The weekly Stochastic just made a bullish cross under 20 and is in confluence with the 3D (love seeing this). I am longing here but I still kind of want everything to break down. This is the perfect recipe for capitulation: gets a bunch of bullish indicators / buy signals at the same time and then dump hard. If we do bounce from here then I expect it will only delay the inevitable.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 324)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P > L MA > S MA > M MA with L MA flattened out Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear Channel | 1h bull flag Horizontals: S: $3,589 | R: $3,625 Trendline: Bear channel (see yesterday’s post) Parabolic SAR: $3,336 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 0.82% spread. Appears to be re entering Contango after taking out the 2 week high. BTCUSDSHORTS: Continuing to pull back from the shooting star. Funding Rates: Longs pays shorts 0.01% TD’ Sequential: G2 = G1 Ichimoku Cloud: Thin cloud shows little resistance above if we can take out yesterday’s high Relative Strength Index: Back above 50 Average Directional Index: Bull trend Price Action: 24h: +0.2% | 2w: +2.&% | 30d: -8.1% Bollinger Bands: Showing the first signs of a bull trend (turning MA and top band up) Stochastic Oscillator: D, 3D and Weekly Cross. Is very / powerful for those to occur at roughly the same time. Summary: I like to start with a very long term view and then zoom in when the markets start moving. Have been keeping my eye on the 1h chart over the last 24 hours and I like what I am seeing. Volume declining during consolidation while forming a 1h bull flag. Entering a stop order at $3,640 makes a lot of sense and provides very good risk reward. Could also set a order at $3,716 which would be a daily green 2 above a green 1.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
6
Bitcoin: 9 Week Forecastcdn.discordapp.com Firstly let's think about Candlestick Analysis. As you know, a 1D candle is a blended candle composed of 24 1H candles, and a 1W candle is a blended candle composed of 7 1D candles. That's point 1. Point 2 is that this perfect Tom Demark Setup + Countdown is the *first* which has occurred in this Bear market cycle. The relevance of this cannot be more strongly emphasized. If we consider "*the herd*" to be obsessed with 1m, 5m, 15m, 30m, 1H, 6H FUD, eventually all of this FUD and TradingView "Expert Analysis" culminates into a 1D candlestick which experts look at to find candlestick reversal signals: Shooting Star, Hammer, Bearish Engulfing Pattern, Bullish Engulfing Pattern, Evening Star, Morning Star. Professionals wait for these signals at legitimate support/resistance to open/close trades. These are swing/momentum traders, and they are successful. Big money "whales" are looking at these and they use 1D candles to manipulate the market as these potential reversal areas are the perfect leverage/breaking point where price can be forced in one way or the other. That's the small perspective. The Big Game comes in > 1D charts and again if you look Point 2, *the first perfect Tom DeMark* setup+countdown on a 1W chart, what happened immediately thereafter? A sudden 10% increase in price because big money knew where to buy while *the herd* did not. 1W long game. The Setup represents momentum visa vi 9 consecutive higher/low candles. This Setup kicks off the trend, count down visa vi 13 candlesticks, and you know the math so I don't have to describe that. We are exactly a POINT #1 of the new trend, Bullish. We had the Bearish 1-9, then the 34% rally, followed by the continuation of the Bearish trend, 1-13, and this necessarily has culminated in the specific purpose of the Tom DeMark TD Sequential indicator: identify exactly the point of trend exhaustion. The Bearish trend is exhausted here. Therefore it stands to reason and the charts support that whether immediately sequential or not we should expect a 1-9 WEEK period bullish correction here. When I say that the charts support this I'll provide screenshots of various timeframes showing this blended outlook: cdn.discordapp.com 1W: Bullish Engulfing Pattern lays down support at the bottom of S13 at 3357. Imminent MA 3/12 Golden Cross. 1D: Morning Star lays down support at 3357. MA 3/12 Golden Cross has executed. Bearish Engulfing Pattern resistance breakout. Tenkan breakout. 12H: Bearish Engulfing Pattern resistance is at DeMark 1234, not near finished with it's bullish momentum, and Ichimoku resistance is thin. 7H: Sequential 23456 is within the Ichimoku supply cloud... (continued below) cdn.discordapp.com 7H (continued): The bullish move is in the supply cloud . The arrow shows exactly that supply is being absorbed by demand. A pullback to test Bullish Engulfing Pattern resistance-turned-support is standard practive and lines up with 123456 extension, Kijun, Tenkan, and MA 12. 4H: Supply was overcome by demand. 1H: Kijun and Bearish Engulfing Pattern reinforce this area as strong support. All put together and I expect a standard small correction to test support, followed by the 1W DeMark bullish trend.
Long
by zerocashcool
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 322)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P < S MA < M MA < L MA = bearish Patterns: Phase 7 of hyperwave | Bear Channel | Daily Close Below Symmetrical Triangle Horizontals: S: $3,350 currently being tested | R: $3,374 Trendline: 3 week bear TL is holding as resistance Parabolic SAR: $3,479 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 1.4% spread. Paying very close attention to decreasing spread. BTCUSDSHORTS: Appears to have formed a higher low Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% TD’ Sequential: R6 Ichimoku Cloud: Cloud is starting to thicken Price Action: 24h: -0.4% | 2w: -4.8% | 1m: -14.6% Bollinger Bands: Fully bearish, bands are starting to squeeze again Stochastic Oscillator: Daily is back in oversold territory, 3D failed to make bullish cross Summary: I have been watching for a bounce off the trendline support from the symmetrical triangle. In yesterday’s post I used the 4 hour chart for the first time in months while i was watching the reversal candles form on top of my trendline. That failed to amount to anything over the past 24 hours and now I am right on the verge of turning bearish again. The LTCBTCSHORTS being severely overleveraged is the main reason I am inclined to remain tentatively bullish. The 3D red 9, daily red 6 and backwardation are providing confirmation at this moment. However the spread in the backwardation has been consistently narrowing over the past few days and it is getting dangerously close to re entering Contango. If that happens then I will disregard the Litecoin short sellers and look to join the party myself.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 320)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P closed > S & M MA but instantly reversed to the downside. L MA still bearish Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear Channel | Symmetrical Triangle Horizontals: S: $3,377 | R: $3,472 Trendline: Symmetrical triangle inside bear channel Parabolic SAR: $3,336 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 1.90% spread BTCUSDSHORTS: Looks like they are pulling back for a 21,650 retest Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0126% TD’ Sequential: R4 | 3D just closed R9 Ichimoku Cloud: Paying attention to how the Tenkan-Sen just angled down sharply. Relative Strength Index: Continuing to trend down below 50 Average Directional Index: Still resisting below 25 Price Action: 24h: -0.1% | 2w: -3.2% | 1m: -13.9% Bollinger Bands: Trending down, squeezing with price below MA. As bearish as it gets. Stochastic Oscillator: D threatening to recross bullish (always find it amazing when it does this on bearish price action) 3D is making bullish cross and that has been a very good indicator in this bear market. Summary: I feel confident that volatility is coming in the next 24 hours. The violent reaction following today’s close is what makes me feel so certain. The daily closed at $3,429 and then there was an immediate influx of selling volume. The high volume combined with the bearish wick is something that I pay very close attention to. Either support will hold strong and provide the foundation for a significant bounce, or it will tear right through the support and go for a retest of prior lows. It is still too early to induce which direction is most likely from here, however I do not think that will remain the case when it comes time for tomorrow’s daily update. The most important chart to me is still the LTCBTCSHORTS which continue to create new all time highs. That looks like very low hanging fruit to me for someone with enough money to execute a short squeeze. If that happens then I believe in will lead the entire crypto market into a 1+ month dead cat bounce up to the $5,200 - $5,800 area. The 3D Stochastic is provided a nice confirmation of that bias. Look for yourself at how well that signal has worked throughout this bear market! The 3D red 9 is another good confirmation that a bounce is coming.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
1
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 319)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P < S MA trying to cross M MA < L MA Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear Channel | Symm triangle Horizontals: S: $3,396 R: $3,423 Trendline: Symm triangle Parabolic SAR: $3,323 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 1.93% spread BTCUSDSHORTS: 12h h&s Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0123% TD’ Sequential: R3 = R2 Ichimoku Cloud: Tenkan-Sen continues to act as beautiful resistance Relative Strength Index: Formed another lower high at trend resistance Average Directional Index: Finding resistance at 25 Price Action: 24h: +0.1% | 2w: -1.9% | 1m: -8.5% Bollinger Bands: Squeezing with price below MA Stochastic Oscillator: Bearish re cross on the daily Summary: Outside of the short MA trying the cross the long MA on Consensio things are starting to look considerably less bullish than the last few days. The spread is the backwardation is back under 2%, the TD Sequential is on a red 3. The Tenkan-Sen continues to act as clean resistance and the Stochastic made a bearish recross. The main reason that I remain bullish is because of Litecoin, which tends to be a market leader. It is currently testing critical resistance (0.01) and the LTCBTCSHORTS are severely overleveraged. I think the most likely outcome over the next 24 - 48 hours is a massive LTC short squeeze which leads to the larger cap coins following the leader. The longer resistance continues to hold and the spread in the backwardation continues to decrease the less confident I will feel about that.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
3
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 318)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P < S MA < M MA < L MA = fully bearish Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear Channel | Symmetrical triangle Horizontals: S: $3,415 | R: $3,477 Trendline: Symm triangle Parabolic SAR: $3,323 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 2.1% spread. Was under 2% earlier today. BTCUSDSHORTS: Higher low still valid Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0066% TD’ Sequential: Price flipping Ichimoku Cloud: That Tenkan-Sen is blowing me away. Pretty much perfect resistance for 15 straight daily candles. Relative Strength Index: At trend resistance Average Directional Index: Price Action: Watching for it to cross 25 to confirm bear trend. Bollinger Bands: MA at $3,517. Price consolidating below MA while BB’s squeeze is bearish. Stochastic Oscillator: Daily buy signal. 3D and Weekly posturing. Summary: Price is retesting a bullish 200 week MA. I am still expected a bounce to $5,200 - $5,800 before breaking down $3,200 support. Yesterday was a green 2 above a green 1 and I was expecting that to continue with a green 3 above a green 2. Instead we retraced and close below yesterday’s low. While that was happening the spread in the backwardation was narrowing and that had me paying very close attention. Seeing that start to expand again along with the daily candle closing inside the symmetrical triangle made me feel more comfortable about my long exposure. The market remains in a very crucial spot. Large cap alts - ETH, LTC and XRP - are at major support and could be due to a face melting bounce. If BTC holds support and gets a bounce then I am expected 2X - 3X moves out of the alts. LTC interests me most right now. It is testing critical resistance of 0.01. A close above would give me targets of 0.02 and 0.028. The 50 & 200 day MA’s are making golden cross while the LTCBTCSHORTS are at trend resistance after creating new ATH.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 317) Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: S MA < P < M MA < L MA Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear channel | Symmetrical triangle with $1,000 measured move Horizontals: S: $3,386 | R: $3,500 Trendline: Symm triangle Parabolic SAR: Broken SAR Futures Curve: Backwardation with 1.97% spread. Arbitragers have been chipping away at this spread selling spot and buying futures. BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulling back, will be interesting to watch Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0002% TD’ Sequential: G2 closed > G1 Ichimoku Cloud: Absolutely amazing how well the Tenkan-Sen has been acting as resistance. I am a firm believer that traditional settings are best in all markets. Relative Strength Index: Testing trend resistance Average Directional Index: If crosses 25 then that would confirm bear trend Price Action: 24h: +0.8% | 2w: -5% | 1m: -7.6% Bollinger Bands: Squeeze with price below MA Stochastic Oscillator: D buy signal. 3D posturing for buy Summary: You could make a very strong bullish and bearish case right now. That is usually a good time to stay out of the market. Conversely it can also be when some of the best signals happen to occur, when there is equilibrium a big move is likely to follow. Bearish Case Outside of the short term MA Consensio is fully bearish and the long term MA is acting as clean resistance in confluence with the Tenken-Sen & Bollinger Band MA. For me symmetrical triangles also carry a bearish bias when the overall trend is bearish. The backwardation is a bullish indicator but I view the narrowing spread as bearish. Flipping back to Contango would make me seriously reconsider position. BTCUSDSHORTS appear to have created a higher low. Even though they are pulling back right now I still view that chart as a bearish indicator (primed for shorts to pile on). Bullish Case I have been expected a bounce to $5,200+ since November. The gap in the visible range volume profile needs to be filled and I expect that to happen now before the final capitulation. The daily Stochastic just got a buy signal. The 3D and Weekly are not far behind. I love seeing all three in confluence. We just had 32 consecutive Bearish SAR’s on the Daily chart and they just turned bullish. I have recently started backtesting how many consecutive SAR’s can happen before a correction and > 30 is definitely on the higher end. The TD Sequential just closed a green 2 > a green 1 following the 32 consecutive bearish SAR’s is particularly interesting. It triggered a long entry this afternoon, but only a very small one due to Consensio. I didn’t another Bubble Comparison this afternoon and that provided very good confirmation of my short term bullish bias. Analyzing the 200 MA and the 200 EMA on BTC has illustrated some very interesting results. 200 MA crossing 200 EMA with price below happened at the bottom in 2014. 200 EMA crossing 200 MA with price above called the beginning of the following bull market. Bitcoin
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
4
Example of a powerful buy and sell warning using TD9 sequential.Look at the sell warnings (red highlighted green candles) and the buy warnings (yellow highlighted red candles) on this weekly chart. When you see these warnings, it is usually safe to buy or sell on the breakdown of the candle body. The best entry is to wait for price to eclipse the wick of the candle with the signal on the successive candle. On higher timeframes such as the weekly, these warnings can be extremely powerful signals. For instance, the buy signal the week before TRX bottomed at ~300 satoshi. There was also a nice sell signal at an SR flip (top candle.) And you will notice the following candles to these signals produce both the top, and bottom os the current cycle. You can use these signals on lower timeframes, but typically they have a much lower strikerate. Personally when in a trend, I start at the lower timeframes and look for buy / sell warnings that progress to the higher timeframes. For instance, if I see a warning on the 15m chart, i will wait to see if it comes up on the 30m, 45m, hourly, etc. The higher he signal progresses into the higher timeframes, the more powerful the signal can be. You can also use the counts as guides, ie counts move in sets of 5, 7, 9, and 13. Sometimes such as in the 2017 bitcoin bull market you can get a count going up to 15 or even to 21 before there is a strong reversal. these are spotted by a count to 9 followed by no count for successive candles. sometimes a 1 count will appear or a 1,2,3 but usually you can tell if the trend has reversed or not, and can take the signal accordingly. There is more but im bored of typing for now. Google is also your friend. search terms are "td sequential" or "td countdown" for the count setup information, "td setup" for the SR lines and the warning signals.
by mewnrokkets
Ada on it's way to my Golden Pocket ZoneDear Cocopuffs! Hope you guys are doing well. I Hope you saw my latest post about Ada where I pointed out the 1095-ich level for a bounce. This was on the 21st of jan. And there you have it, the bounce happend. We are in a decending wedge so I see us going down soon. 4 hours is overbought at the moment and the TDseq is on a 3. Personally i am not taking this trade and left it. I don't see us braking out from the wedge anytime soon, plus the redcloud is also pushing the price down. The daily, 3daily and the weekly are looking bearish. The goldenpocketzone for me will be around 1050-ich. From here I will go long and we see where the ship sails. I'm not a daytrader as I don't have that much time due to my normal job, but if you are then set your stoplosses just in case we dip lower. That's all folks, enjoy your profits! Don't be too greedy, what goes up must come down, it always does:)
by LaszloHuiber
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 312)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P < S MA < M MA < L MA = fully bearish Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Parallel Channel Horizontals: $3,480 - $3,500 was support, watch for it to become resistance Trendline: Parallel Channel Parabolic SAR: $3,566 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 3.15% spread BTCUSDSHORTS: Formed higher low. Now it is testing the 34 MA Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% TD’ Sequential: Daily R4 | 3d R7 | 1w: R3 Ichimoku Cloud: Kumo has twisted back to bearish and price has closed the last 9 daily candles below the Tenka-Sen. Watch for C-Clamp. Relative Strength Index: Lower highs and lower lows Average Directional Index: Threatening to cross 20 in the next day or two. Price Action: 24h: -2.9% | 2w: -6.1% | 1m: -9.4% Bollinger Bands: Squeezing with price below MA. MA at $3,567 and acting as strong resistance. Stochastic Oscillator: Weekly oversold while 3D and D approach oversold territory. When all three line up it can be a very powerful signal. Summary: It appears that we have been eating away at $3,500 support over last two weeks and today was the first daily close below that level since the middle of December. Almost all of the metrics that I care about are fully bearish: Parallel channel, Consensio, Ichimoku Cloud, TD Sequential, Bollinger Band, along with close below horizontal support. Normally that would be more than enough for me to enter a large short. However, I view this as a no short zone until the futures curve re enters Contango. As long as the backwardation remains I will have a preference for longs. A big move is coming and the risk:reward appears favorable for either direction - which is often the case when the market ranges for this long. I am very interested in the Stochastic Oscillator on the D, 3D and Weekly charts. If those line up and all get a buy signal around the same time then I will be looking to open a large long. The two most likely outcomes that I am seeing from here are: A) retest $3,000 - $3,175 for support and get a strong bounce to $5,200 - $5,800. B) Range from $3,400 - $3,550 for 2 - 3 weeks and retest top of bear channel. If the less likely third option happens where we break down $3,000 and potentially capitulate then I have high hopes that I will be able to enter a short as soon as the futures market re enters Contango (believe that if it’s a bear trap there will be Backwardation, if it is a real breakdown there will be Contango).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 14 (1.4252 BTC) Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge I might have had a little bit too much fun last night. I went to a bluegrass concert that started at 9:00 and I must have had too much to drink because I still feel like shit at 6:15 pm the next day. The struggle is real! Not having anything to drink tonight and I am looking forward to feeling like a champ again tomorrow. The markets have sure been interesting. Starting to track the futures curve is the only reason that I didn’t short BTC after yesterday’s close and I am sure glad that I didn’t! As long as we continue to hold support I gain confidence that $4,200 resistance will break and then we will be in for a strong 1 month + dead cat bounce. The S&P 500 looks like it is just coming to the end of that type of bounce. The TD Sequential is on a red 9, we have multiple reversal candles and there is a cluster of resistance from $2,600 - $2,650. USD:TRY continues to head fake > $5.5 and continues to close below the TDST level at that price. The M MA is diverging in a bullish manner and support continues to move up. This is my single favorite trade for 2019 and if we can close a daily candle > $5.5 then I think we should really start to pick up momentum. Open Positions Long: USDTRY Price: $5.55804 Projected Risk: 5.66% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000) Margin: 0.048 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.087 BTC Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 trendline is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge. Long: USDZAR *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%. However minimum available to scale out was 8% *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + Bearish M MA (30%) + Bearish Cross with S & M MA’s (15%) + P < flat L MA (25% - 50%) *1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS: Stop loss set at $13.489 for remainder of position. *1/9/19 ADJUSTED STOP LOSS: Moved stop to $13.64 due to expected support from 200 MA. *1/11/19 DEATH CROSS signals final scale out. However on TD red 9 at horizontal and trend support. Leaving stop at $13.64 due to bullish 200 MA and support cluster. Negligible difference in risk, huge difference in potential gain. Price: $14.48 Projected risk: Market stop set at $13.49 Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.06 lots ($6,000) Margin: 0.0157 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.075 BTC Realized PnL: -0.086 BTC Short: SPX500 *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50% *1/11/19 GOLDEN CROSS does not necessarily signal scale out due to angle of L MA. Stop loss set at $2,656. Price: $2,472.62 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.44% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276) Margin: 0.0586 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.289 BTC Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC Notes: Major horizontal resistance from $2,600 - $2,650. Stop set at $2,656. Really want to see this week close < the 9 MA. LONG XRPH19 *1/11/19 SCALE IN: P < Bullish L MA represents oversold asset in bull market. Enter: 0.00009135 Stop: 0.00008888 Risk: 2.7% Exposure: 20,267 XRP (1.8518 BTC) Leverage: 15X Unrealized PnL: +0.0111 BTC Realized PnL: -0.0046 BTC Notes: Entry was not based purely on Consensio. Bitcoin futures curve in backwardation with widening spread is main reason I was looking to add to my long exposure. Also looking at confluence of support from trend and horizontal. Guidelines would have me waiting for close above S MA to start scaling in, but I really liked the risk:reward provided at today’s close. Open Orders *1/10/19 AMENDED stop market to short XAUUSD. Moved entry up to $1,284 due to that being below horizontal support & parabola and it provided better risk:reward. Consenio signaled entry today, but I’d prefer to wait for further confirmation. Watchtower USDHUF: 18 year symmetrical triangle. USDJPY: (leaning bearish) Consensio is bearish on Monthly chart indicating that the triangle has a greater chance of breaking down. Tightest monthly BB has been since 1976 when the price proceeded to move 41% in ~21 months. Think that retesting $80 is most likely. XRPUSD: In a Bollinger Band super squeeze on the weekly with lower highers and highers lows suggesting upcoming parabolic move either way...a/k/a Jesus Fish Pattern. Symmetrical triangle on daily provides first target of $1.1 USDCAD: Approaching bullish 200 MA while the M MA and L MA posture for death cross. Weekly A&E bottom with $1.63 target. Massive volume over last 3 years. Currently fitting into channel. Tightest weekly BB squeeze since 2000. WTIUSD: Pullback back and into golden cross BTCUSD: Gap in the visible range volume profile looks like it is begging to get filled. If we close above $4,300 then a return to $5,400 - $6,000 would be my highest probability outcome. Will be strongly considering setting a stop order to add to my long above the daily Parabolic SAR. Backwardation appears to be getting slightly more exaggerated, currently 3.03%. ETHUSD: First weekly buy signal since April 2018. Daily has potential incoming death cross which could occur right around the Constantinople Fork. LTCUSD: Waiting for close > daily saved me. Treating inside the cloud as a no trade zone can work very well. XRPBTC: Incoming death cross following L MA roll over could be setting up ideal entry. However ascending triangle is still in tact and want to wait to enter until we get a close above / below. XAUUSD: A few daily candles have closed above the trend line from 2016 but when zooming out to the weekly chart it becomes clear that the TL is continuing to hold as resistance, therefore it is still in tact. Daily looks like it is ready to break down at any moment and that is why I will be waiting with stop entry. Consensio is also starting to signal short entries with P < S & M MA while those are making a bearish cross. EURUSD: (leaning bullish) L MA and LL MA squeezing with price between on weekly and the LL MA appears to be making bullish reversal. Seeing a potential A&E bottom. Bollinger Band in tightest squeeze since 2014 and a 24% move followed that one. USDRUB: Symmetrical triangle forming above bullish 200 MA that is approaching the price. Also had a recent GGC on the weekly.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by Sawcruhteez
5
BTCUSD Monthly Hello, We are closing in on the 50 Month moving average. It supported the price twice in history. We never had a candle close below it. The RSI is at the lowest level in history. The way I see it, we have to get a bit under the 50 Month, maybe get a red 9 on the weekly (we are closing with a red 5 this week), and then bounce strongly. If we don't.. there isn't any real support until 1100! I think we are getting the bounce and then go to 1100 later but im also not going to risk too much trying to catch falling nives out there. Please take in consideration that the momentum indicators like the RSI can recover with prolonged sideways action. What I'm doing is setting limit orders at the range between 3k and 2,8k with small amounts. If it hits those levels my stop loss is going to be tight. If it bounces strong i will enter the rest of my position. Best regard's Alexandre Simões
BNC:BLX
by alexandrejosesimoes
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 286)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019 | Calling a top in the S&P 500 at $2,634 Previous analysis: “Everything is about as bearish as it can get except for the daily candle.” Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778 | Short XRP:BTC from 8865 sats | Short USDT:USD from $0.99 | Short BTC:USD from $3,288.5 Patterns: Bear trend | Hyperwave phase 7 Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,130 | R: $3,235 BTCUSDSHORTS: Strong bounce. Will it create a new ATH or are we ready for a big squeeze? Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0356% Short term trend (4 day MA): Full candle below Medium term trend (9 day MA): Has started to diverge from the trendline but still fully bearish Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Fully bearish Overall trend: Fully bearish Volume: Didn’t see much volume through in terms of selling volume however less volume is to be expected over the weekend. Candlestick analysis: Doji Ichimoku Cloud: C clamp is resolving itself TD’ Sequential: Today was a r3 that briefly traded below the r2. Visible Range: Will high volume node at $3,150 provide bounce Price action: 24h: -0.7% | 2w: -20.2% | 1m: -46.9% Bollinger Bands: Bottom band = $2,920 Trendline: Being tested Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend): Showing strong signs of bullish reversal. 33 MA has flattened and is primed for a golden cross with the 9 MA. Could this provide the support needed to breakthrough the trendline? Parabolic SAR: at $3,915 RSI: Stuck below 30 on daily. Just broke down 30 on weekly. Stochastic: Weekly and daily are very bearish Last Day Rule: Need to break through $3,500 for setup day Summary: There is a ton of support from $3,000 - $3,200 and it is starting to look like the bearish momentum is waning. Today was a doji that barely broke down yesterday’s low and it failed to close below. Support will be coming from: the 200 week MA, the high volume node on the Visible Range Volume Profile, the daily TD’ Sequential is on a Combo 13 and the weekly is on an aggressive 13. Furthermore the BTCUSDSHORTS’ are at all time high levels and historically this is the area that we would expect to see a short squeeze. That is confirmed by the funding rates being very expensive for short sellers. We are also testing the 3 week bear trendline for resistance while the 1 hour chart is showing strong signs of a bullish reversal, which tells me that a breakthrough the trendline is more likely than not over the next 24 hours. Due to the factors listed above I have amended my stop loss on my BTC short position. I couldn’t decide whether or not to move it to breakeven or to leave it at $3,551. In those circumstances I strongly prefer doing both. In this case I set a break even stop loss for 50% of my position at $3,288.5 and I decreased the stop at $3,551 by 50%. Now if we get a fake breakout of the trendline that triggers my breakeven stop then I will still have half of my position.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Sawcruhteez
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 285)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019 | Calling a top in the S&P 500 at $2,634 Previous analysis: “Watching $3,200 support very closely.” Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778 | Short XRP:BTC from 8710 sats | Short USDT:USD from $0.99 | Short BTC:USD from $3,288.5 Patterns: Bear trend / hyperwave Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,142 | R: $3,250 BTCUSDSHORTS: When squeeze? Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0297% Short term trend (4 day MA): Full candle below, bearish as it gets. Watch for continued resistance Medium term trend (9 day MA): Trending down Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Bearish Overall trend: Bearish Volume: Volume increasing as price sells off. Indicates that move is real. Candlestick analysis: Really thought we would see an extended range candle if we broke $3,200. Where did this support at $3,150 come from? Ichimoku Cloud: Kijun just turned down sharply, starting to resolve C-Clamp. Makes me very interested how this is calculated. Do you any of you know? TD’ Sequential: R2 closed < r1 and now r3 = r2. C13 Visible Range: Ah, the high volume node that I discounted due to consolidated slightly above is where the support likely came from. Price action: 24h: -2.3% | 14d: -20.2% | 1m: -46.9% Bollinger Bands: Really thought a breakdown of $3,200 would lead to a retest of the bottom band at ~$3,000. Trendline: Right in between the 4 and 9 MA’s, indicating a serious resistance cluster at $3,250 - $3,350. Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend): Bearish af’ Parabolic SAR: Just noticed that it is holding up nicely on the 1h. I am very impressed with the SAR on every time frame. Daily = $4,007 RSI: Back below 30 and created a lower low Stochastic: Ugly as it gets. Last Day Rule: Now we would need a move above $3,500 for setup day, makes me feel good about my stop at $3,551. Summary: Everything is about as bearish as it can get except for the daily candle. I really expected another candle like yesterdays if we broke down $3,200. Instead we found support at $3,150 and close a candle that indicates that bears losing momentum. However, outside of that everything else is indicating lower prices in the next few days / weeks. Volume increasing as price sells off, TD’ Sequential being on a red 3, Ichimoku C-Clamp resolving itself, full candle below the 4 MA, continued resistance from the trendline. Until we close above that trendline and the 4 MA then I am feeling very good about holding a short. Even if we do bounce then I expect that to be very short lived.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Sawcruhteez
2