How to become a master trader?
First:Making Plans
Before trading every day, make a trading plan, so how to make a good plan?
Take XAUUSD for example,If you mainly focus on short-term operations, focus on the key support and key resistance within the day, buy up at the support level, buy down at the resistance level, sell high and buy low, if you cannot accurately determine where the support and resistance are , you can see my daily analysis articles.
In addition, when making a plan, you must set the stop profit and stop loss points. The stop profit must be greater than the stop loss. The reason for this is that even if your accuracy rate does not reach 50%, you can still make profits in the long run.
Second:Implement
After making a trading plan, what you have to do is to strictly implement it. You need to have confidence in your plan and don’t doubt your judgment because of the turmoil in the market. You need to know that the truth is often in the hands of a few people.
Third:review
Regardless of whether you are making a profit or a loss in today's transaction, you need to review the market. When you make a profit, you need to consider whether the take-profit position set this time is reasonable, and whether the profit can be enlarged next time. Of course, you also need to learn how to stop in moderation.
Of course, we can’t avoid the situation where we misjudged the direction. At this time, we need to consider whether we have strictly implemented the stop loss operation. In many cases, small losses are out, and keeping the principal is also a very correct operation. More people They will stop profit, but they can’t accept the loss, which leads to a mistake and loses the whole game. Therefore, it is said that those who can buy are apprentices, and those who can sell are masters.
Fourth:Summarize
Making a trading plan is a good habit, and it will accompany you throughout your life. Don’t think it’s a good habit just because you’ve made money for several days in a row, and you’ll feel that making a plan is useless because you’ve lost money for a few days in a row. The meaning, a simple summary is to make a good plan, strictly implement it, review it many times, and believe in yourself.
I will formulate my trading plan every day, and then share it with you, hoping to make progress together with you. At any time, we are in awe of the market and let ourselves go further through planning. This market will always eliminate some people. Don’t believe it Luck, that kind of thing will run out sooner or later, friends are welcome to discuss with me.
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Trading Psychology
Psychological state in tradingThe important point is to describe your psychological state in two cases:
When you are not in a trade.
When you are in a trade.
In the first case, the common problem is missed profit. Often, novices take this very painfully and think about the missed opportunity that could have brought them potential profit. However, the market, especially the cryptocurrency market which operates 24/7 without breaks, has many trading ideas and opportunities, so there is no need to fixate on it or torment yourself with it.
Therefore, when you are not in a trade, try to describe your psychological state, what you feel at that moment, whether it's the fear of potential loss from missing a trade or something else.
In the second case, when you are in a trade, you need to describe your state, what worries you. It could be greed to fixate profit or fear of losses. In both states, you need to fully describe yourself, the trading setups that cause such emotions.
To avoid these emotional swings, you should have a clear plan for taking profit and an approximate loss in case of failure before entering a trade. When you do not have such a plan, you will swing back and forth, and the outcome may be negative. Therefore, when you are in a trade, describe your state in detail and document it in a journal related to your psychology, as psychology is 80% of successful trading.
All these aspects will help you learn more about yourself and your psychology, which will enable you to build your trading strategy, as psychology accounts for 80% of successful trading. That's why soulless machines, neural networks, and AI are so good at trading compared to humans with their emotional instincts.
Because many people want more profit here and now, they are not willing to bear losses, develop, or understand themselves. Due to this incorrect psychological mindset, people often lose money and then blame trading for being a casino. Of course, it's a casino for ludomaniacs who, without a strategy, listen to "experts on Instagram" and are already turning to the 30th leverage for a short.
I hope you understand why this aspect is necessary. Nevertheless, in subsequent articles, we will try to describe more about psychology in trading.
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✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
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trading prayer ? 😂Our mentor , who art in the market , hallowed be thy name ; thy strategy come ; thy emotions be controlled on live accounts as in on Demo. Give us this week our daily pip targets ; forgive us all our bad risk management as we forgive those who gave as signals that blow our accounts ; lead us not into stop loss but deliver us from stop hunts. For thy is the market , the leverage and sniper entries. Forever in Profit ... AMEN !! 😂
Full Time Trading VS Full Time Job | Everything You Need to Know
Hey traders,
In this educational article, we will compare full-time trading and full-time job.
And I guess, the essential thing to start with is the money aspect.
Full-time job guarantees you a stable month-to-month income with the pre-arranged bonuses.
In contrast, trading does not give any guarantees. You never know whether a current trading month will be profitable or not.
Of course, the average annual earnings of a full-time trader are substantially higher than of an employee. However, you should realize the fact that some trading periods will be negative, some will be around breakeven and only some will be highly profitable.
In addition to a stable salary, a full time job usually offers a paid sick-leave and vacation, while being a full-time trader, no one will compensate you your leaves making the position of an employee much more sustainable.
Being an employee, you usually work in an office with the fixed working hours. Taking into consideration that people often spend a quite substantial time to get to work and then to get home, a full-time job usually consumes at least 10 hours, not leaving a free-time.
In contrast, full-time traders are very flexible with their schedule.
Even though they usually stick to a fixed working plan, they spend around 3-4 hours a day on trading. All the rest is their free time, that they can spend on whatever they want.
Moreover, traders are not tied to their working place. They can work from everywhere, the only thing that they need is their computer and internet connection.
Traders normally work alone. The main advantage of that is the absence of a subordination. You are your own boss and you follow your own rules. However, such a high level of freedom breeds a high level of personal responsibility. We should admit the fact that not every person can organize himself.
In addition to that, working alone implies that you are not building social connections and you don't have colleagues.
Being an employee, you are the part of a hierarchy. You usually have some subordinates, but you have a supervisor as well.
You are constantly among people, you build relationships, and you are never alone.
There is a common bias among people, that full time trading beats full time job in all the aspects. In these article, I was trying to show you that it is not the fact. Both have important advantages and disadvantages. It is very important for you to completely realize them before you decide whether you want to trade full time or have a full time job.
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Always factor in the possibility of the market’s developmentHello Traders:
First educational video since I went away 8 months ago :)
This topic has been brought up many times, and I wanted to prepare this video for those who are still struggling with the concept of possibility in the market.
Many inconsistent traders, when taking losses, often look at their strategy as the reason why the losses occurred.
They often fail to see that the real problem often lies with emotion, psychology, risk:reward, rather than strategy.
A good rule of thumb when approaching the market is to have a clear mind and expect anything can happen, regardless of technical analysis.
That means, even if a certain setup is developing, there is still probability that you will take a loss after entering. No strategy can give you 100% win rate.
No matter how clean the setup is, or how it mimics the past price action or setups, the market can still not go with what you wish it to go.
So, when we are waiting for a setup to happen before taking the trade, try to think on the other side as well.
If you are looking for a long setup, also think about whether there is a possibility of a sell, and does sell also make sense.
As an example, here on USDJPY, I have seen traders share their bullish view and bias.
Certainly nothing wrong to follow through with your own view and forecast, however, I would suggest to also look into the possibility of a sell potential. Does the sell potential also make sense ?
What if both bullish and bearish outlook exist ? then does it make sense to execute the trade ?
When thinking too much stops your trading successIt’s important to do the right amount and kind of thinking when you’re trading: you don’t want to overwhelm yourself with information, you want to get into a flow state when you’re at your trading desk and you want to stay mindful about the kind of thoughts and feelings you’re having.
In the legendary sports psychology book The Inner Game of Tennis Timothy Gallwey talks about how he observed his tennis students had two selves: one that is critical, judging, coaching and the other that just did the tennis playing. He found that people played better tennis when the first is paused and the second is allowed to flourish. This could also be described as overthinking versus being in the zone.
What is overthinking when you are trading?
The more you think, the more problematic the trading can become. It’s important to be thinking enough that we’re following our trading plan, reading the signals properly, evaluating our options, but we don’t want to be thinking beyond that.
If we have too many charts open or paralyze ourselves by referring to too many different trading methods, then we can stop our trading from flowing.
So what is the flow state
You know when you’re doing something that you enjoy or find rewarding, you feel capable of doing, and you get on a roll, focused, compelled to carry on? This is often something with a repetitive nature to it. We are completely focused and time flies and we feel like we are accomplishing something. That’s the flow state.
When we’re in it we get absorbed in doing the activity and the self-critical or self-coaching self is quiet. We’re not judging how well we’re doing, or being indecisive about how to do it, we’re just doing.
How does it apply to trading?
Once you have got to unconscious competence with your trading - you have practiced and internalized the process - you can enter into this automatic way of doing.
This doesn’t mean being mindless: you will still be analyzing what you see on the chart, employing discipline and patience (so therefore using some reasoning). But not doing any unnecessary questioning or thinking.
How to get in a flow state
This isn`t going to happen until you are familiar and confident with the process and trust yourself to follow the rules and procedures for your level of trading at the moment. Then:
You need goals that are a challenge but are achievable
You need to be in a headspace where you aren’t worried by distractions
Don`t multi-task: uni-tasking is essential
Be in a stress-free state
Make sure the physical space in which you trade is conducive to being focused
Make the right things be automatic
Our minds have an invaluable ability to process many things - as well as run the many functions of the body - automatically. But this can also be problematic as it facilitates many of our unhelpful habits, whether physical, emotional or cognitive. The brain also tunes out things it has learnt aren’t important, whether rightly or wrongly.
So a key step is to become aware of what is automatic or invisible for you, employing some mindfulness or non-judgemental awareness:
What kinds of thoughts are you thinking when you think about trading, when you sit down to trade, when you execute a trade, at the end of your trading session – are they helpful?
Do you get so into the flow state that you overdo it, for instance, forgetting to eat, drink and putting off trips to the bathroom or sleep?
Have you been ignoring any physical discomfort at your trading station, for instance, is your chair uncomfortable or are you holding your neck in an unnatural way to see your screen(s)
Mindfulness is both a formal and an informal practice and there are many ways to engage with it. The main thing to remember is that it is a skill to practice, it is simple but might not be easy, and the goal is not to clear your mind, but just to develop an ability to observe the mind and body in a very present way. It helps us become aware of our habitual actions and ways of thinking as well as physical sensations: the first step to changing them.
How to change
So once you’ve developed an awareness of any unhelpful thought patterns, how do you change them?
Here are some examples:
For a week or two, note your thoughts and feelings alongside your traditional journal or log. How relevant, helpful or logically sound are they?
Thoughts and feelings are not facts. Research cognitive distortions and see which ones you are entertaining.
Use thought-stopping techniques.
Practice relaxation skills whether through mental exercises or physical treatments like massage or reflexology.
Make sure your biochemistry is helping you here: get a professional practitioner to help you optimize your diet and any supplements to reduce the stress response and negativity biases.
Summary
The mind is a malleable thing as are your habits, providing you believe and expect you can change. So in the same way that you track and fine-tune your trading performance for optimal profits, make sure you do the same with your trading mindset.
What is Gap in Trading | Ultimate Guide
Gaps are important parts of the financial market, especially in stocks and currencies. They happen when an asset opens at a significantly lower or higher price than where it closed at.
Gap is a situation where a currency or any other asset opens sharply lower or higher than where it closed the previous day. Such a gap happens when there is a major event or news when the markets are closed.
It usually represents an area where there is no trading taking place.
There are three main scenarios that happen after a gap in the market forms.
First, an asset price can continue moving in the direction of the gap. For example, when a bullish gap forms, an asset’s price can continue with that trend.
Second, a gap can be filled within a few days or months.
Finally, a gap can be followed by a long period of consolidation as traders focus on the next major moves. In all these, it is always good to focus on the asset’s volume.
The most common strategy of gap trading is when you decide to enter a trade in the opposite direction of the gap. In this case, you will be betting that the asset will reverse after forming a gap. Ideally, one way of doing this is to check the trends of volume after the gap happens.
Still, the risk of doing this is that the asset will either consolidate or resume the gap trend.
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🧊The Iceberg Illusion In TradingThe iceberg illusion in trading refers to the perception gap between what people think trading is and what it actually means. Many people see trading as a simple way to make quick profits and accumulate wealth, with the idea that all one has to do is buy low and sell high. However, the reality is far more complex. Under the surface of what appears to be a straightforward process lies a world of risk, stress, and uncertainty. Trading is not just about making money, it requires discipline, patience, and a deep understanding of the markets. Those who don't understand the true nature of trading may face financial loss, depression and failure, much like the hidden dangers beneath the surface of an iceberg. Success in trading often requires much more than just a basic understanding of market trends and patterns, and those who dive in without being fully prepared may face dire consequences.
🔷 Above the Iceberg
Above the iceberg, people often see the glamorous and attractive side of trading, characterized by success, wealth, and financial independence. They imagine traders as confident and knowledgeable individuals, making smart decisions and reaping the rewards of their investments. The image of traders making large profits in a short amount of time is one that is often perpetuated by media and popular culture. People often see the stock market as a fast-paced, exciting place where opportunities for financial gain are abundant, and the idea of being able to control one's financial future through trading is alluring. This perception of trading often creates a rosy and idealized image of what it entails, leading many to believe that success in the markets is easy to achieve.
🔶 Bellow the Iceberg
Below the iceberg, lies the reality of the challenges and difficulties that traders face on a daily basis. There are many hidden risks and uncertainties that are not immediately apparent to those who are new to the world of trading. Some of the things that people don't know that lie beneath the surface of the iceberg include:
🔸 Market volatility:
The stock market is a highly volatile environment, and prices can fluctuate rapidly and unpredictably. This can make it difficult for traders to manage their positions and minimize their losses.
🔸 Emotional stress:
Trading can be a highly emotional experience, and the pressure to make the right decisions can be immense. Many traders struggle with anxiety, fear, and depression, particularly when faced with losing trades.
🔸 Lack of understanding:
The stock market is complex, and it can be difficult for traders to understand all of the factors that influence market trends and prices. This can lead to costly mistakes and an increased risk of financial loss.
🔸 Competition:
The stock market is a highly competitive environment, and traders must be able to keep up with fast-moving markets and make quick decisions based on complex data and information.
🔸 Long-term success:
Many traders are focused on short-term profits and may not consider the long-term impact of their trading decisions. Achieving lasting success in the markets requires a well-thought-out strategy and a strong understanding of the markets and the risks involved.
🔸 Timing:
Successful trading often requires precise timing, as markets can change rapidly and prices can fluctuate. Traders must have a deep understanding of market trends and be able to make quick decisions to take advantage of opportunities.
🔸 Risk management:
Trading involves risk, and traders must be able to manage their positions and minimize their losses. This requires a well-planned and executed risk management strategy, including setting stop-losses and taking profits at appropriate levels.
🔸 Knowledge and experience:
Trading is not just about buying low and selling high. It requires a deep understanding of market trends, economics, and financial analysis, as well as years of experience to develop a successful trading strategy.
🔸 Discipline:
Trading requires discipline and patience, as well as the ability to stick to a well-thought-out strategy. Many traders make impulsive decisions based on emotions or market rumors, which can lead to financial losses.
Welcome to the hardest game in the world.
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Don't Blow Your Account | Learn How to Avoid Margin Call
Hey traders,
In this educational article, I will share with you 5 simple tips that will help you not to blow your trading.
1️⃣Always Use Stop Loss.
Let's start with the obvious - with the stop loss order.
Never ever trade without that. Before you open your trade, plan in advance its placement, stick to it once the position becomes active and never remove it.
2️⃣ Manage Your Position Sizes
I know that most of you are trading with a fixed lot. That is a bad habit. You should measure the lot size for each trading position you take. You should define in advance the risk percentage you are willing to lose per trade and calculate the lot sizes for your trades accordingly, then.
3️⃣Avoid Taking Too Many Positions
Remember that in trading, quantity does not imply quality. The more trades you take, the harder it is to manage each position individually. I would suggest opening maximum 5 trades per day and holding no more than 8 trades simultaneously.
4️⃣ Avoid Trading Too Many Markets
The wider is your watch list, the harder it is to focus on each individual element inside. Do not try to control as many markets as possible, instead, narrow your watch list and concentrate your attention on your favourite trading instruments.
5️⃣Remember About Volatility
The more volatile is the market that you trade, the harder it is to trade it and the bigger stop losses you need to keep your positions safe. Remember, that the volatility is the double-edged sword. It can bring substantial profits, but it can also blow your entire account in a blink of an eye.
Following these 5 simple rules, you will make your trading much safer. Study them and add them in your trading plan.
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Traders balance between intellect and emotionsHow can traders create a balance between intellect and emotion?
In trading, rationality and passion are two sides of the same coin. Rationality helps us make educated and reasonable trading decisions, but unbridled emotions may be harmful. How do traders strike a balance between these two factors?
- Understand your emotions and their influence on your trading is the first step. For instance, if you experience panic when you lose, you may terminate the deal early than necessary. If you are excited about winning, you may hang onto a position longer than required. Understanding your emotions and their influence on your trade can enable you to exert greater control over them.
- Create a trading strategy based on facts and data, not on your emotions. This will assist you in making more educated trading selections and avoiding emotional mistakes. Create a risk management compliance system that will assist you in minimizing losses and maximizing profits.
- Practice yoga and meditation to enhance your emotional control. This can help you become calmer and more concentrated, which will allow you to make better trading judgments.
- In conclusion, the equilibrium between intellect and emotion in trading is crucial for success. By understanding your emotions, adopting a sensible trading plan, and practicing strategies for emotion regulation, you may reach incredible harmony and balance, as well as make better educated trading judgments.
Throughout the trading process, you must practice and continually evaluate your psychological condition.
Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch!
✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
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My Backtesting Results on NZDCHFHolding trades is what I want to get better at and backtesting is going to help me do it.
I've backtested NZDCHF today and found that it was a remarkable session.
I was able to enter 4 trades in the span of 3 months gaining over what would have been 15% from the trades, but one trade hit my break even point so I gained around 12% from my trades.
I used the monthly, weekly, and daily timeframes with most of my entries coming from the daily timeframe.
I used my own strategy known as TMP. It stands for Trend, Market Structure, Price Action(or, pending orders).
I identify the trend first, then set my estimation zone, then place my pending order. In that order, thats it.
I don't use support and resistance, trend lines, or indicators for the most part. I like using price action. Its my preference that has changed throughout my trading career.
I've noticed I a few reasons why I don't enter my best setups are due it
1) Money trauma( family had poor money management)
2) Time limit( pressure from showing results)
To get over those, I have set parameters to take partials, move my trades to break even, and set pending orders to eliminate myself not entering my own trades.
This helps in the long run and has helped since collecting data on myself since the start of me using prop firms.
I can only pray that through my backtesting and trading journey, this can help you too.
Please let me know if you have questions regarding my backtesting or found something unique that helped you.
Safe trading❤️
🧠 The Mind Of A Smart TraderTrading psychology is influenced by emotions like greed and fear, which can drive irrational behavior in markets. Greed causes excessive risk-taking and speculation, while fear causes traders to exit positions prematurely or avoid risk. Regret can also cause traders to violate discipline and make trades at peak prices, leading to losses. These emotions can be particularly prominent in bull or bear markets and can have a significant impact on market outcomes. Trading psychology is a crucial factor in determining success in trading securities. It includes aspects of an individual's character and behavior that affect their trading decisions. Discipline and risk-taking are critical components of trading psychology, as is the impact of emotions like fear, greed, hope, and regret. It can be as important as knowledge, experience, and skill in determining trading success.
🧠10 Trading mindset tips:
🔹 Stay informed: Stay updated with the latest market news, trends, and developments, as well as your preferred assets.
🔹 Create a trading plan: This should include a clear set of rules for entry, exit, and risk management. Stick to your plan.
🔹 Manage your emotions: Avoid making impulsive decisions, especially during volatile market conditions. Keep a clear head and stick to your plan.
🔹 Continuously educate yourself: Enhance your knowledge and skills by reading books, attending seminars, and practicing with demo accounts.
🔹 Diversify your portfolio: Spread your risk across different assets and markets to reduce your exposure to any one particular market.
🔹 Stay disciplined: Follow your plan and stick to your rules, even if your emotions are telling you otherwise.
🔹 Set realistic expectations: Be mindful of your limitations and don’t overreach. Accept small losses and focus on long-term success.
🔹 Stay focused: Avoid distractions and keep your mind on your trading activities.
🔹 Keep a trading journal: Record your trades, track your progress, and reflect on what you could have done differently.
🔹 Take breaks: Avoid overtrading, which can lead to burnout. Take time to recharge and come back fresh.
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Funds and money in cryptoFunds and money in crypto
First, let's determine why money are required for the project.
Money . The first and most evident thought that occurs to mind. A startup exchanges a portion of its stock or tokens (often a soul) for digital evergreen paper. Is it feasible to grow your business without these funds? Certainly, you can, but why? When a team has operational cash flow, it can stop pursuing profits from day one and instead focus on developing a high-quality product that will bring a lot more profit for everyone in the long run.
Expertise . Every big VC has a whole team of specialists that can assist a new or not-so-young startup with a variety of difficulties, including business model development, tokenomics, marketing, and cost reduction. Even if a developer is a talented coder, this does not guarantee that he or she can create a lucrative firm.
Connections . The fact that funds invest in dozens of initiatives necessitates communication with hundreds of thousands of professionals worldwide. There may be an intriguing project in the investor's portfolio with which one might form a relationship or attract customers.
Quality rating . When a cool fund invests in a firm, the rest of the market receives a signal to keep an eye on them. If stock experts who evaluate hundreds of companies every month opt to invest in the team, then the startup's concept and potential are rather strong. While this does not alter the fact that even market experts occasionally miss the mark.
We have therefore determined why we require a financial investment and will proceed. The following important question is how much was invested in the project.
It would appear that more is better. However, this is not always the case, at least not in our experience as bold speculators.
When 100-200 million dollars are invested in a token, this indicates that the minimum FDV is already trying for a billion dollars, making it considerably more difficult for early investors to obtain Xs with sensible prices on the listing. Therefore, purchasing such enormous items at the beginning of the market is a mediocre idea, however participation in their activities is an excellent idea.
On the other hand, if they invest too little ($100-$300k), this may indicate that they don't trust much in the progress just yet; other funds invested three kopecks just in case. With this alternative, however, there is a substantial potential for X, as was the case with My Neighbor Alice, who, after privately accumulating two lyams, moved to binance and made their early investors and players wealthy. I should emphasize, however, that this is a relatively unusual occurrence, which occurred owing to the bull market's enthusiasm.
Ideally, we are interested in anything that falls between the preceding two criteria. A $5-$20k investment gives ample room for X's on the listing, and is sufficient to form a really cool team and develop the product.
What I've learned after backtesting So, I love backtesting. Recently I've found my self in a 3% drawdown and needed to figure out what the cause of it was and trading at this moment won't give me that answer.
So, I decided to backtest.
Here is what I found:
1. I'm overtrading my system
I am a proud swing trader who got back into scalping the market in December 2022. It was mot my idea, but I thought I could handle it. I started out great, but then the market reminded me why I left the lower timeframes.
2. I'm not holding my trades long enough. Thanks Prop Firms!
Since joining a prop firm my mind has been changed to holding trades for less time than I normally would. I don't mind holding trades for weeks or months, but prop firms give you time limits during evaluation periods.
That was and still is a huge adjustment for me. Being a swing trader means I have to let my profits run. So, now, I've found a prop firm that will allow me to hold my trades with no time limits.
3. Not holding trades to my weekly and monthly targets.
I need to see past my daily targets. Normally my daily risk to rewards are between 1:1 and 1:2. I'm in drawdown because I'm not recovering from my losses with these risk to rewards.
So now, I'm only taking trades with RR over 1:2 and better. This way I'm trading less, holding longer(sometimes), and getting the best bank for my buck.
Backtesting helped me see my mistakes and how to correct them. This is called fixing your strategy.
Notice how I'm not changing my strategy. I'm tweaking my strategy to fit my mental capacity and trading style.
If you find you're in a drawdown and can't see, stop trading and backtest what you're currently doing and find a way to stop the behavior thats causing your drawdown. Then, stop doing that particular thing so you can see better results.
I pray this has helped you.
Let me know your key takeaway by commenting below.
Learn Why Most of the Traders Fail
The evidence suggests that only a very small proportion of day traders makes money year over year.
There are certain patterns which may separate profitable traders from those who ultimately lose money. And indeed, there is one particular mistake that in our experience gets repeated time and time again. What is the single most important mistake that led to traders losing money?
Here is a hint – it has to do with how we as humans relate to winning and losing.
Our own human psychology makes it difficult to navigate financial markets, which are filled with uncertainty and risk, and as a result the most common mistakes traders make have to do with poor risk management strategies.
Traders are often correct on the direction of a market, but where the problem lies is in how much profit is made when they are right versus how much they lose when wrong.
Bottom line, traders tend to make less on winning trades than they lose on losing trades.
Humans aren’t machines, and working against our natural biases requires effort. Once you have a trading plan that uses a proper reward/risk ratio, the next challenge is to stick to the plan. Remember, it is natural for humans to want to hold on to losses and take profits early, but it makes for bad trading. We must overcome this natural tendency and remove our emotions from trading.
That will help you to be a consistently profitable trader.
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Learn Risk to Reward Ratio | Forex Trading Basics
Hey traders,
Planning your every trade, you should know in advance the profit that you are aiming to make and the maximum amount of money you are willing to lose.
In this educational article, we will discuss risk reward ratio - the tool that is used to compare your potentials losses and profits.
Let's start with an example. Imagine you see a good buying opportunity on EURUSD. You quickly identify a safe entry point, your take profit level and stop loss.
From that trade you are aiming to make 100 pips with a maximum allowable loss of 50 pips.
To calculate a risk to reward ratio for this trade, you simply should divide a potential gain by a potential loss:
R/R ratio = 100 / 50 = 2
In that particular example, risk to reward ratio equals 2 meaning that potential gain outperform a potential loss by 2.
Let's take another example.
This time, you decide to short USDJPY.
From a desirable entry point, you can get 75 pips with a potential loss of 150 pips.
Risk to reward ratio for this trade is 75 divided by 150 or 0.5.
Such a ratio means that potential loss outperform a potential gain by 2.
Risk to reward ratio can be positive or negative.
If the ratio is bigger than 1 it is considered to be positive meaning that a potential gain outperforms a potential loss.
If the ratio is less than 1, it is called negative so that potential loss is bigger than potential risk.
Knowing the average risk to reward ratio for your trades, you can objectively calculate the required win rate for keeping a positive trading performance.
With R/R ratio = 0.5
2 winning trades recover 1 losing trade.
You need at least 70% win rate to cover losses of your trading.
With R/R ratio = 1
1 winning trade, recover 1 losing trade.
You need at least 50% win rate to compensate your losses.
With R/R ratio = 2
1 winning trade recovers 2 losing trades.
You need at least 35% win rate to cover losses of your trading.
Trading involves extremely high risk. Risk to reward ratio is a number one risk management tool for limiting your risks. Calculating that and knowing your win rate, you can objectively decide whether a trade that you are planning to take is worth taking.
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Best advice for achieving success in trading!✅Here's the deal, guys. If you want to make this year a successful year in trading, you got to have an edge. It doesn't have to be rocket science, just a solid strategy. There are plenty of resources out there, so don't be shy to do your research. Once you got a strategy, test it out with a small account or paper money before committing fully.
And when you commit, commit fully. Don't be that person that changes their mind after one loss. Ignore the noise on social media and focus on your own system and 'PnL. It's none of your concern how other people are trading.
Don't buy the hype. You're not going to turn chump change into a fortune overnight. Trading has its ups and downs. So, don't be caught off guard and expect the unexpected. And always be ready for the ride.
And here's the truth, not every trade will be a winner. But there will be a select few that'll make up for the majority of your 'PnL increase. Just make sure you have enough capital to cover 'bills, taxes, and other boring stuff.
And don't be dumb and emotional. Risk management and trading psychology are crucial. If you're having panic attacks before executing a trade, it's a sign you're either not suitable for trading or you're taking excessive risks. Take a step back and assess your current financial situation and the amount of money you're putting in.
Embrace failure as fuel. It's not a setback, but a lesson in disguise. Realize that success is not a straight path, but a journey full of ups and downs.
And lastly, come prepared. Write down a plan for each day, whether it's a simple excel sheet or a written plan. It'll help you stay focused and aware of what's happening in the markets. And remember, trading is hard. Don't fall for the social media hype that makes it seem easy.
Happy trading!
I would lie to you that I am very special!This is an event that has spread all over the real and virtual space these days
I am better than you, more beautiful than you, smarter than you
But the reality is something else
But we know the truth!
You and I are human, we have our merits and demerits, we all lied, we were all kind, we were both good and bad!
we are equal ..
With this introduction, I wanted to get here that we in the financial markets are involved with an equal scale of types of risk
It means that if I am facing some risks, you are also facing almost the same risks!
So, of course, if we are profitable but have a low win rate, or vice versa, we have a high win rate, but we may not be profitable in the long term.
Accepting this risk is the most basic step of entering the market.
I think money management and risk management are the only keys to success
Our learnings about technical and fundamental analysis only play a role in reducing or increasing the risk of our trade!
7 main mistakes of new traders List of deadly crimes committed by new traders
So far, you have created a new account, purchased your first Bitcoin. You are now prepared to become a trader in cryptocurrencies. You frequently trade on an exchange where the price of the first coin you purchase increases by 10% before you sell it. Self-satisfied that you did it. Using the ingenious "Buy Low, Sell High" method, you are advancing: a Twitter account. There is already a crowd of new employees awaiting your calls. It was going so well until you committed one of the following rookie errors.
1 - Waiting Pump and Dump
Observing a green candle that rockets up into the sky is one of the most beautiful sights a trader can see - if they purchased at the bottom. However, without a horse to race, envy might be overwhelming. You will experience lapsed profit syndrome and attempt to wager your entire bankroll. Occasionally it will pay off, but more often than not it will place you in an awkward situation.
A quick price swing in cryptocurrency is not always indicative of a pump-and-dump scam. Positive news or a major influencer's promotion might also result in exponential growth. Before purchasing a coin, it is essential to comprehend why its value is soaring. If not, you risk failure. Many inexperienced cryptocurrency traders try with pump-and-dump organizations that guarantee rapid gains with minimal effort. Failure once or twice will be sufficient to learn the lesson and pursue more intelligent trading tactics.
2 - Buying in illiquid markets
For your coin to continue increasing, someone else must want to purchase it. The issue with numerous developing altcoins and numerous tiny exchanges is that they have a dearth of orders. You can be certain that Sprouts (SPRTS) is the future of crypto, but if a sufficient number of traders disagree, you risk focusing on a currency that no one wants to purchase, or at least not at a price that you are willing to pay.
There is nothing wrong with long-term investment in a coin whose fundamentals you respect. However, these "undiscovered diamonds" are prone to a lack of liquidity in the short run. Traders who have grown weary of waiting for a coin's price to rise may be compelled to sell drastically below their desired price.
3 - Set the incorrect price
Raise your hand If you've ever missed a zero on a trade setup and your coins surged, set your sell order 10 times lower. This is easy to accomplish when dealing with altcoins that are priced in fractions of Bitcoin: you think you're making an order to sell 0.0000457 BTC, but you've actually placed an order to sell 0.00000457 BTC. The majority of exchanges will rise to the maximum rate. However, services like Etherdelta are not as user-friendly as others. Always double-check the buy or sell price before pressing the execute button.
4 - Transferring the incorrect coin to an exchange's wallet or use wrong chain
If you sent Bitcoin Cash to a Bitcoin wallet by accident, do not expect the exchange to bail you out. However, the larger exchanges are unlikely to be of assistance. You must exercise caution before sending funds to the wallet, as errors are nearly impossible to rectify. Sending Ethereum tokens to an Ethereum exchange wallet or requesting a mining pool payout directly to an exchange wallet are other rookie errors. Avoid doing that. The greater your trading motivation, the better you will become.
5 - Revenge of trader
You are unhappy because you refused to purchase a coin at the last minute, and then it flew to the moon. Or you purchased a worthless certificate - a sure loser - and it failed. Infuriated, you wager your entire fortune on the next green coin and attempt to ride this train to Profitville. In doing so, you overestimate your abilities and enter a market you have not yet explored.
Where do you enter and exit the market? Why is the coin's value increasing? You are ignorant because you act based on your feelings. Revenge trading is analogous to capturing your partner in the arms of another person and then grabbing the first item you discover. Nine times out of ten, it will end in tears. The greater your ability to detach your emotions from your trade, the more successful you will become.
6 - Overactivity
Too many chefs will destroy the broth, and too many traders will diminish your earnings. This is a simple trap to fall into, and every new trader does it. The day after purchasing a coin, you check to see if its value has increased by 20%. Isn't it preferable to sell and earn a profit? Not required Cut off your losses and let your winners run, as the adage goes.
A basic trading approach that can deprive you of some of your greatest rewards is selling assets for the sake of profit. There is nothing more disheartening than selling a coin for a tiny profit only to discover that someone else paid 10 times as much. Additionally, excessive activity for minimal income will result in an increase in assets conserved through exchange costs.
In certain ways, hyperactivity that generates tiny earnings is advantageous, but these profits will be consumed by commissions on any exchange. You comprehend the outcomes yourself.
7 - Self-confidence
Intuitively, you purchase a coin and observe its value double over the next week. You repeat the procedure with a second coin and the same result occurs. You are fantastic. You are a man. You convert everything you touch into gold. You are staking your next decision on boldness, which may feel like flying to the moon. Then... one loses everything. What occurred? You are impudent, that is what.
A little self-assurance is wonderful; it's what enables traders to go against the grain and make their own conclusions. Conversely, over confidence is a formula for disaster. When you disregard warning flags while feeling invincible.
Eliminating these seven fatal errors does not qualify you as a professional trader; years of expertise, late hours and early mornings spent watching two monitors and creating charts are still required. Nevertheless, if you eliminate your rookie errors, you may survive long enough to become a pro.
Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch!
✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
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• Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓
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7 Reasons why Elite Traders Crush the CompetitionHello TradingView world,
I have been trading for almost 15 years and have learned some serious lessons about trading and the markets. I have also been fortunate enough to interact with many great traders over that time that have helped me tremendously, however I still struggled for a long while and wondered why I wasn’t making the progress I desperately wanted to make.
I thought just like everyone else, that if I found the perfect trading strategy, all of my problems would vanish and profits would rain down from the sky like salt bae letting salt drip down off his forearm.
Well guess what happened? I ACTUALLY DID FIND IT.
In fact, my analysis in the market was so damn good that in 2013 I was invited to speak on a worldwide webinar hosted by Daily-FX which was then owned by FXCM.
I’d have a 50 pip stop with a 500+ pip price target and I was nailing the trades left and right, so this was the reason I was invited on. I was working at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York during this time and I ended up leaving that job to trade full time that same year.
Things went smoothly for a while. I partied… A LOT. Did all kinds of reckless and stupid things with my time and money and I ultimately lost it all by 2015. I pondered for a long time about what happened and once I removed my ego and stubbornness, I figured out that what makes a trader great has nothing to do with the outside and has everything to do with the inside.
This is the TRUE secret of trading success. It’s all about YOU and how YOU approach trading. There is so much more to the story but without further hesitation, based on what I have learned from other great traders and have personally learned through brutal hard lessons, this is why Elite traders crush everyone else in the market and if you begin employing these lessons in your own trading, I can guarantee that you will see a dramatic change in your results.
#1 - ELITE TRADERS ARE LEAGUES ABOVE YOU IN PATIENCE
Everyone gets into trading for one thing and one thing only; to make money and to make as much of it as possible. One thing that the majority of traders do is that they also want to do it in the FASTEST way possible. This is where they screw up but is it any surprise that this is the case? I mean look all around you in terms of social media (Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, etc.) it’s all over the place with people touting “Watch me turn $1,000 into $10,000 in just a few days!” … This gets views, it gets attention and it encourages other traders to continuously take on massive risks in order to achieve this.
Is it possible to do? YES, because many traders (Including myself) have done it but what does it also do? It creates detrimental habits that keep you in this mindset of turning a small account into a large account quickly and then that one day comes when you take on massive risk on a trade that looks “good” but ends up going violently against you for a huge loss or COMPLETE destruction of your account.
Another factor is that the majority of traders want to be in the market ALL of the time. They can’t resist staying out and staying flat during times of uncertainty or when the charts aren’t clear enough to validate putting their capital at risk. Elite traders can wait hours, days and even WEEKS before putting on another trade because they understand, their trading opportunity is not yet clear and they rather wait as long as possible in order to enter the market at the most optimal time and conditions.
Think about it; do you want to be in the market on a consistent basis? Are you able to wait a few days or a few weeks before putting on a new trade? It’s a very difficult thing for many traders to do while Elite traders have mastered the game of patience to their advantage. It’s not a matter of how long is the next trade going to take to develop? Rather, I’ll take the next trade when the optimal conditions are met regardless of how long it takes.
#2 - ELITE TRADERS KNOW THEIR OWN WEAKNESSES
Everyone has weaknesses whether we like to admit it or not. Some traders are severely impatient, some have a problem with risk management, some have a problem with making impulsive trades and become reckless, some have a problem with over analyzing their charts or trying to look at multiple markets at the same time, etc. Most traders either try to suppress them or choose to ignore them completely and this causes many to struggle and stay frustrated.
Have you ever thought to yourself, “Shit, why did I do that!?” or “Why did I get out when I should have stayed in” or “Why did I chase it! I knew I should have stayed out” … There is a weakness there that you have not learned to master or work on improving it. Even if you finally acknowledge it and try to write it down or post it on your wall by your trading desk… You STILL end up making that mistake and frustration takes over.
Elite traders through trial and error have learned to master their INTERNAL trading character. They know what triggers them and have found a way to stop it in its tracks so that mistakes are kept under control. They also understand that when these weaknesses start to creep up on them, they can identify WHY it’s happening and talk themselves out of it.
For example, if the market is rising and it looks like it’s going to get away from them, they understand that by chasing after it, the market could turn around and leave them with an unnecessary loss or trap them in a position that they should have not gotten into in the first place. Their attitude is “The market did not give me the optimal trading opportunity that I wanted therefore I will wait. Let the market do whatever it’s going to do, I don’t care. I only care about my optimal trading opportunities” This tie’s in with reason #1 (Patience). They will not let ANYTHING force them into trades they shouldn’t be in.
#3 - ELITE TRADERS FOCUS ON ONE MARKET/PAIR/SECTOR
This is not only true of trading but life in general, focusing on one thing and mastering that one thing to become great at it. There are a multitude of instruments and markets to trade and it gives us traders the freedom to choose where we’d like to put our capital to work but as many of us know, too much choice can actually be a bad thing. When it comes to the Forex market, we have many pairs we can work with and that can actually be a problem.
Everyone has a watch-list of pairs that they want to trade but is that causing you more trading struggles for you or keeping you confused? Whether the answer is yes or no, why are you doing that? And the answer is most likely because you believe it presents more trading opportunities but that is not always the right way to go about things. Each pair moves and reacts differently during certain market conditions and what works well on the EUR/USD may not work on the GBP/JPY. While the EUR/USD moves at a more stable pace and a big day would be considered a 1% move, the GBP/JPY can become wildly explosive and relentless when it comes to market volatility.
Elite traders know this and they stick to ONE thing and become a master at it. I personally stick to the EUR/USD and that is MORE than enough to make profitable trades on. Elite traders do not divert to other markets or other pairs to try and make more profits but they lock down and focus on that one pair and crush it. It’s not common for the majority of traders to do this because they feel that they will be missing out on other trading opportunities but are they really? Or are they just finding multiple ways to take losses?
In order to trade this way, it would require the ability to stay incredibly patient but it would allow for you to stay away from multiple charts and remain disciplined while not putting your capital at risk and avoiding impulse/emotional trades.
This is not common but then again… this is why Elite traders do it and the majority does not.
#4 - ELITE TRADERS PREFER A LONGER TERM OUTLOOK
Just look at the screenshots of charts scattered on trading forums, social media or any other discussion outlet, more times than not everyone’s looking at the 1 Minute all through the 4 Hour time frames. You’ll find a few daily charts here and there and even less Weekly+ charts. Most traders want to be in the market every day and this is why Day trading is so enticing, it gives them a reason to log in, open up their charts and look for trading opportunities to make money. That’s a Mistake.
You’re probably noticing that the previous 3 reasons tie into this reason and that’s because this is just another manifestation of lack of patience or inability to focus on one thing. Short term charts give the impression that there will be more moves to get in and out and not staying in a position overnight. Yes, I get that some traders out there prefer to just get into the market and then be done with it at the end of the day but more times than not, you’ll end up making impulsive trades that creates a string of losses if you don’t have your emotions in check.
Elite traders like to look at the “whole picture” and prefer looking at the daily charts and up. Since longer time frames take time to develop, this is perfectly fine for them as it gives them more time to prepare for the upcoming trade and analyze the levels, they want to take a position and take profit. Once they enter a position, they set their stop and let the market work for them.
They don’t need to check their positions multiple times per day since they know the market will take its time doing what it’s going to do and therefore have time for other activities in their lives or businesses.
#5 - ELITE TRADERS VIEW TRADING FROM A BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE
“How much can I make per day”, “How much can I make per week” or “How much can I make per month” … This is what you’ll usually hear from the majority of traders but how many times have you heard “We’ll see how performance looks at the end of the Quarter”? I’m willing to bet, not many. There is a lot of hype about how much can be made in one day or week but trading is not about just one day, one week or one month, it’s about the long game and how results look over time.
Some Elite traders even go as far as looking at profit-loss on a yearly basis but because market conditions change throughout the year, reviewing how performance looks like at the end of the quarter is preferable. There is no rush to try to make a gain at the end of the day, week or month. Spacing out P/L review allows opportunities to both develop and play out especially if the market is trending.
Elite traders don’t mess around in the market either, this is not a game or hobby for them while many amateurs in the market don’t take it as seriously as you would think. They know that the market is a battlefield and the other side of the trade won’t hesitate for a Nano-second to take their money. They understand that trading should be treated with the same care as running a business and properly deploying their capital out into the market is essential in bringing back even more capital for future trading opportunities that yield larger profits.
Although trading is now offered to the masses and anyone can pretty much open a brokerage account and begin to trade, there are millions of traders that are misinformed and approach the market incorrectly and unprofessionally. “But, I’m not looking to trade professionally, I just want to trade casually” sure, that is completely fine however guess who’s going to eat you alive in the markets? That’s right, the Elite traders who do take things seriously and professionally.
#6 - ELITE TRADERS PROTECT THEIR CAPITAL AT ALL TIMES
In the boxing world, what is one of the warnings referees issue to the fighter’s right before the fight begins? “Keep your hands up and Protect yourself at all times!” and for good reason, right? So that they do not put their hands down and get a crushing hard punch to the head that knocks them out cold. It doesn’t matter how well you trained or for how long you’ve trained because one lazy mistake can cost you the fight, in some cases brutally.
If you’ve been in the trading scene for any length of time, you have read or heard it countless times “manage your risk, manage your risk, manage your risk!” but how many traders ACTUALLY do it? You’d be surprised at how many do not do it at all because it’s painful to do. Painful? How so?... Well, it requires one to make small gains over time instead of putting the pedal to the metal and use high leverage on one single trade. That’s very difficult for the majority of traders to do because that means no “Account Flips” or trying to hit a homerun trade every single time and let’s face it, everyone is trying to get “rich” quickly.
Elite traders know that just one mistake of not practicing sound money management by either not using a stop loss or using too much leverage can be extremely dangerous to their account and they know that it’s just not worth it. On another note, they understand that following risk control is instilling good and strong habits for their subconscious mind and it will carry along for the rest of their careers if they just stick to that simple principle.
If there’s one major reason the majority of traders fail while a small percentage of traders make money consistently, it’s a lack of risk management and account/capital protection.
Before you step into the unforgiving arena (Forex) be sure to protect your account at ALL times! Keep your "Guard" up and play defense!
#7 - ELITE TRADERS AVOID DISTRACTIONS AND NOISE
This is a pretty interesting and controversial one. It can be difficult to ignore the distractions and noise because us traders want to be part of a group or community so that we can share ideas and forecasts along with everyone else but sometimes, you’ve got to be careful with this. You may have an idea or outlook that goes against what others think is going to happen and it could get you off track. You may have experienced this a few times where you believe the market is going to go in one direction and others share the complete opposite view which then causes you to doubt your analysis. You end up cutting the position too early for fear of being wrong and ultimately the market goes in the direction you thought it would and you’re left frustrated.
Distractions can also come in the form of upcoming economic data such as the Federal Reserve coming out with Interest Rates or its chairman Jerome Powell talking about certain economic projections. Volatility spikes up and it sucks you into the hype but if you have a sound trading strategy and rules, you may have noticed that even during high volatility, the market still respects order on the charts. It just moves as a faster pace.
I have personally experienced this through my years of trading, in fact a recent memory comes to mind in 2020. I was invited by an online friend to a private Meta trading group and I wanted to offer some help and insight into what I knew, so I shared a screenshot of my outlook of the EUR/USD going forward.
It was a powerful chart pattern I had seen countless times on the weekly chart and the EUR/USD was trading around 1.0850. Once I shared my screenshot calling for the Euro to make a strong 1000+ pip move and trend towards 1.2000 to 1.2200, some other group member immediately called my analysis a joke and that chart patterns were garbage and useless.
I was going to retaliate back but I thought to myself, this is childish, unprofessional and really unproductive, so I immediately left that group. My friend apologized and said the other guy had a chip on his shoulder because he was former banker for a massive global investment bank (I won’t say which one but I can guarantee you, everyone knows it). I appreciated the apology and left it at that. I the end, all that mattered to me was that as the months went by, the EUR/USD did in fact trend towards the exact projected price levels. That was a lesson for me to avoid detrimental opinions from others.
Elite traders know about this type of noise and are sure to remove any of that from their trading. This is why many stay “undercover” and you don’t really hear about them. They stay under the radar and just do what they do and do it well.
The overall lesson here is that a community should be about helping others and uplifting them, even when they’re wrong. No matter how great a trader is, he/she still deals with losses and nobody is ever correct 100% of the time. Trading is already difficult, so by encouraging and helping others become better at trading the markets, everyone improves as a whole.
Conclusion
There you have it, just some of the basics of what Elite traders do and what has transformed my own trading results tremendously. We all know that there are a variety of ways to approach the market but if there is one takeaway from all of this is that, Top Level traders have learned to master themselves and how they mentally approach trading. It’s actually quite simple and straight forward however it can be hard to implement in real time but that doesn’t mean that it cannot be done and transform your own trading. I wish you the best in your trading journey. I personally know it can be VERY tough but it's well worth it. Keep at it and never give up.
How to never break your Trading Account?Follow We Trade Waves 4 Golden Trading Rules!
1) Do Not Over-Risk
Big Risk = big loss = potential big profit | Small Risk = small loss = potential big profit (Read this again)
2) Do Not Over-Trade
Successful trading is not about trading often, it's about being selective and trade correctly!
3) Do Not Trade Without Stop Loss
Check GBPAUD, CHFJPY, GBPJPY Daily chart and you will see market sometimes move thousand pips within minutes!
4) Never Ever Add To Losing Position
While you are thinking that you will break even faster which is true! you will be doubling, tripling your risk at the same time!
Print above rules and keep them in front of you while trading
DISCLAIMER: We Trade Waves is not a signal service. Instead, it involves sharing our perspective and detailed analysis based on our unique wave analysis concept. We cannot be held responsible for any financial gain or loss that may result from following our analysis.
Trade with care
WTW Team
Investing and Trading Should be Easy!My Background
I was a young man working for an Insurance company and being a quiet trouble-maker with a healthy affinity for analysis of numbers, I was thrust into a position that fed this desire to the max. My boss then told me, "Runya in this job you must have a sixth sense, insurance agents earn commission and if they get a chance to falsify numbers to get paid they will do it, you are the gate keeper". Those days insurance agents would put fake business through, get paid and the claw back (recouping paid commission) would be few months later. Some would then abscond starting a lengthy process or using current commission to recover the monies. It was at this point that I also became interested in representing workers, Zimbabwe at the time was going through hyper-inflation so salary increases were a seriously contested area, the employees needed me for my analytical skills, to corner the employer and show why they could afford the 100-200% salary increase. It is in the debates with company executives that we always ended up scrutinizing what money was invested and where. The bulk was in the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange, those days shares were moving hundreds of percent. With our meagre salaries we jumped into the money making machine, everyone was trying to beat inflation and beat the exchange rate. Buy today, sell a week later with 2000% profit and hope by time funds cleared you would be able to buy the US dollar making a gain. I remember the adrenalin rush, it was insane. Often we lost the battle waiting for funds to clear forcing us to buy again.
The Money Lesson
See as a child my father died, I could tell at his funeral that he was a notable employee at the national airline, pilots, general managers all came to pay last respects. Later I learnt he had worked hard, to each child he left a sizable amount of money. We all had bank accounts where funds were put, the bank was called Post Office Savings Bank (POSB). In today's money it would have been several thousands. We let that money sit in a savings account and at that time the economy was undergoing structural adjustment guided by IMF, inflation was ravaging this money so much that within 2 years it was all gone. What followed was substantial suffering to near destitution. Though I was young, the experience from plenty to nothing was rather intriguing. Trauma leaves a mark on all of us, with me being introverted meant I digested things long after they had reason to be at the back of my mind.
Back to insurance, I was now able to piece together how money worked. The confusion of childhood was now finding answers. It was like the universe conspired to put me in a place where my confusion would be solved. I also got a front row view of the monster called inflation and the unfairness of the pension and retirement management companies. While we argued to be paid fairly, management would tell us the money sitting on the balance sheet was for policy holders. On the other hand the same policy holders who had put hundreds of dollars, some from as far back as 1980s, were being told their policy value was not enough to afford a loaf of bread. Many would not travel to claim the matured policies for they would spend more in transport charges that the payout. So it happened that insurers saw the paper obligation go to zero, while the assets purchased by premiums from those paper contracts multiplied to match inflation. Long story short, policies got wiped out, insurers gained assets with no obligations tied to them, it was a sad situation.
Into the Markets
I started doing analysis, the very basic, buy low and hold, sell at a profit. I have analyzed some great opportunities where I could have turned $200 into $20,000. But I saw them and said I would act on them later, later I never got the change but serious regret as that money would have saved me a recession. I lost my job abruptly during the Great Financial Crisis. By 2017 I went back to the markets, I knew my greatness was in there, I strongly believed I could teach people to be careful, to think of their pensions and manage them differently especially in Africa. I put a lot of time into studying, listened to many hours of Anton Kriel, he sounded convincing being an ex-Goldman Sachs employee. I listened to the likes of Lance Beggs who traded by the minute and the likes of Rayner Teo whose ways were an adrenalin rush. I thought I was ready, read the candle patterns and bed on them. It didn't turn out so well, I lost something close to $10,000. Being an introvert, adrenalin was not doing me good, blood pressure spiked. I was losing more than I was gaining, everything was complicated on the right side of the chart, history is easy to read, telling the future was a wild animal, untamable.
The world of trading is complicated, one must find where their personality fit, some prefer to be glued to many screens constantly. I was not cut out for that clearly. I wanted some certainty so I can relax and not bother what price was going, if ever I did I would look quickly and finding a convincing reason why things were so. I started learning cycle analysis, I began solving for time rather than price. The things I learnt through earlier traders were great, I credit Lance Beggs for his comprehensive tutorial and candlestick patterns. But I felt I arrived when I came across Malcolm the cycle analyst. It was hard learning cycle analysis, having had many failed attempts, I was skeptical. The more I dug into it, the more it made sense. Today I use mostly cycle counts to determine price direction. In my trading ideas, I simplify it leaving out technical jargon so that the man on the street or just starting can follow, confirm and profit from the ideas.
Conclusion
The goal is to build a trading and investing system that anyone can use especially the financially illiterate. The misfortunes I suffered, I am certain I can save many from that kind of calamity. I have spent the past 3 years building data into Google Sheets, some semi-automated updates here and there. I like what I am building and by end of 2023 I want to be covering JSE, NYSE, ASX & LSE (FTSE). I believe what big corporates have made a complicated process, we must make it simple and if possible make money from there. In Africa money must not be dormant, it must not be subjected to buy and hold where one does Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) & pray after 10 years it will be twice or more. In Africa one must ensure money is always on a voyage, moving from profit in one market and into cheaper alternatives but ready to move towards profit. This is because the challenges in Africa tend towards economic bust, if one can use the limited time to build a war chest spread across major bourses, they can save themselves and many from poverty. I believe in innovation and that it can lift Africa somewhat from poverty, however only when we can turn our dollar into ten dollars can we think of putting five dollars into innovation. It begins with getting good returns relative to time. Slow but sure can work for others, we need speed to catch up. The ideas I share, I usually go over them and ensure I share where confidence levels are high. I used to share ideas before I was good, I saw many were not going as planned, I quit. It is great discomfort to share something that can lose a person money. So stay tuned as we try to disrupt the markets for Africa's sake. It's possible!
Market Cycles: What They Are and the Psychology Behind Them
All markets go through cycles of expansion and contraction.
📈When a market is in an expansion phase (an uptrend), there is a sentiment of optimism, belief, and greed. Typically, these are the main emotions that lead to a strong buying activity.
Sometimes, a strong sense of greed and belief overtakes the market in such a way that a financial bubble can form. In such a scenario, many investors become irrational, losing sight of the actual value and buying an asset only because they believe the market will continue to rise.
They get greedy and irrational by the impressive bullish movement, expecting to make huge profits. As the market gets heavily overbought, the local top is created. In general, this is considered to be the point of the highest risk.
In some cases, the market will start a sideways movement while smart money steadily sells the asset. This is also called the distribution stage. However, some markets don't present a clear distribution stage, and the downtrend starts sharply after the top is reached.
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📉 When the market starts reversing, the euphoric mood can quickly turn into complacency, as many traders refuse to admit that the uptrend came to an end. As prices continue to fall, the market sentiment quickly moves to the bearish side. It often includes feelings of anxiety, denial, and panic.
In this context, by the anxiety we mean the moment when bullish biased market participants start to question why the price is falling, which soon leads to the denial stage. The denial period is marked by a sense of unacceptance. Many investors keep holding their losing positions, either because "it's too late to sell" or because they want still believe that "the market will come back soon."
But as the prices drop even lower, the selling wave gets stronger. At this point, fear and panic often lead to what is called a market capitulation (when holders give up and sell their assets close to the local bottom).
Eventually, the downtrend stops as the volatility decreases and the market stabilizes. Typically, the market experiences sideways movements before feelings of hope and optimism start arising again. Such a sideways period is called the accumulation stage.
Let me know, traders, what do you want to learn in the next educational post?