Trendfollowing
Confirming Trends with the Lower Time Frames NZD/USD ExampleHey Guys!
As you guys know, for the past 2 weeks I've been taking multiple trades on the Nzd/usd, both short and long.
First I was taking short trades with the daily short bias, then long trades along with the bias change into long on the daily chart.
In this video, I explain how I knew the daily bias has changed into long thus aborted my initial short entry and began entering long trades.
These lower confirmation tactics play a huge role in my trading, and even if you don't trade with price action, it can be a great addition to your current strategy.
I hope it helps!
Have a great day guys!
Ken
Here is why I suggest you should use the SUPER TREND!I see the weekend is here. A new week is about to begin, and it's time to get organised, reflect on your progress so far, and learn something new to help you achieve your trading goals., and boost your profitability.
Let's be honest, I am someone who normally likes to follow the trends. A lot of the trend following indicators I've encountered along the way in my professional and career growth haven't made sense to me. Moving averages, Average Directional Index, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence, Parabolic SAR etc. I always had a lot concerns with the indicators being able to swiftly follow the price movement, as well as identify a clear reversal of the underlying trend. However, I came through to find this SUPER 'super trend' indicator some while ago, and by testing this and adding it to my intraday trading strategy, I finally see that I could rely on one single indicator to help me identify the trend quickly and more efficiently (never 100% of course it is still not a holy grail!) but the results were good enough for me to write down this post to you guys.
What is the Super trend indicator?
'Super trend,' as the name implies, is a trend-following indicator, similar to moving averages and MACD. It is plotted on prices, and the position of the prices reflects the current trend. When we build the Super trend indicator, the default settings are 10 for the ATR and 3 for the multiplier. The average true range (ATR) is important in 'Super trend' since it is used to determine the indicator's value and it indicates the degree of price volatility, which is one reason why this indicator beats Moving averages, which disregards price volatility.
Super trend Indicator Formula
The super trend indicator computation is illustrated below–
Up = (high + low / 2 + multiplier x ATR)
Down = (high + low) / 2 – multiplier x ATR
Average True Range = / 14
The number 14 represents a period in this context. As a result, the ATR is computed by multiplying the previous ATR by 13. Add the most recent TR and divide it by the time.
As a result, ATR is an essential component of the supertrend technical analysis indicator.
How to Use Super trend Indicator to Identify Buy and Sell Signals?
Super Trend, as a trending indicator, performs well in trending markets (both uptrends and downtrends). When the indicator flips over the closing price, it is easy to identify a buy-sell indication. When the Super Trend closes below the price and the colour turns to green, a buy signal is issued. A sell signal is generated when the Super Trend closes above the price and the colour of the Super Trend changes to red.
There is no such thing as a 100 percent accurate technical indicator, and Super Trend is no exception. It also produces erroneous signals in sideways markets, however it produces fewer false signals than other indicators. As a result, you may use Super Trend in conjunction with other indicators to provide more accurate trade signals.
Follow my daily analysis posts on my account to check out how to combine it with other momentum indicators as well as use it for multi-time frame analysis!
Confirming Trends with the Lower Time Frames GBP/USD ExampleHey Guys!
As you guys know, I'm currently waiting for a pullback to the 1.3313 levels for a long entry on the GBP/USD.
In order to know whether or not I will get this pullback, I look to the lower time frames to see how much long strength or short strength there is.
Now in this case, I want price to come down to my entry level, thus am looking for signs of short term short strength on the lower time frames.
As you can see in the chart, during the initial move long, there were constant signs of long strength on the 1h chart with the trendline break out, then
immediate break back into the trendline. ( Immediate break back in means: the break out candle's close and the break back in candle's open is at the same price level)
Almost giving the "sense" of a "fake" break out.
Then at the peak of the long move, another 1h trendline had a break out, however no immediate break back in. Showing waning short term long strength. (A good thing for me!)
Then soon after, a 4h trendline was broken out with no immediate break back in, showing waning long strength on the 4h chart also.
Then to top it off, there was a 15m fake double bottom that formed igniting 15m short strength. ( I cannot go into detail about fake price patterns here. )
In this way, I use lower time frame break outs to confirm strength in either direction which by default, confirms which way price will go on the higher time horizons.
In this case, I used this method to confirm whether or not I will get the pullback to 1.3313 for a long entry however, this method can also be used to confirm trends.
For if a trend analysis says that the trend is long; the lower time frame's price action should move in a "long trend way".
Just a cool trick for you guys!
Have a great day!
Ken
Disclaimer: This is not Personal Financial Advice.
How to detect a trend and trail an uptrend? How do I detect an uptrend?
In the chart BNB/USDT I am using the Supertrend Ninja indicator, which is a trend-following indicator (Green and red vertical line with arrows).
When the background of the candlestick closes green with an upwards pointing pink arrow. It indicates a possible bullish (up)trend.
The Supertrend Ninja indicator gave only 6 bullish signals for the 2 day chart in 2021. And 2 bullish signal in 2020. Which in my opinion makes each bullish signal very reliable.
It warned about the March 2020 and May 2021 (possible) corrections (big purple down arrows). And also the big uptrend of Dec 2020 (big blue up arrow).
How do I trail an uptrend?
With each trade I make, proper risk management is essential. Either by using the Trailing Stoploss Bottom Activation indicator, visible as orange dots below the candles. Which sends an alert, when current price goes below the previous candle low. Or using the Heikin Ashi Trailing Stoploss Activation, the indicator below with green and red blocks. Remember, the first stop(loss) is always the cheapest stop. Using one of these, or both offers me the possibility to ride bigger parts of the trend. Whichever triggers an alert first.
(For completeness, the grey blocks are supports and resistances)
Thank you for reading.
Namasté
Disclaimer: Ideas are for entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trades.
Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
Diversify your strategyThe holy grail of diversification is to find several uncorrelated asset classes all with positive returns. One problem, though, is that diversified passive investing has caused all asset classes to become more and more correlated over time. Increasingly, you see stocks, bonds, commodities, and cryptocurrencies all move together.
One approach to diversification that's increasingly popular with quants is to diversify your strategies rather than your asset classes . Long-short strategies are a popular example. Almost by definition, your short strategies will make money when your long strategies lose money, and vice versa. The challenge of making this work is that it's really hard to design short strategies with positive expected return. Since the market tends to go up over time, playing the market short is a bit like betting against the house at a casino. If you find a short strategy that actually works, that's gold right there.
Fortunately, there are some relatively uncorrelated strategies that work for long-only traders. This chart shows the Invesco "Momentum" and "Pure Value" ETFs. As you can see from the red and green arrows, the two ETFs often move in opposite directions. When one is producing positive returns, the other often isn't. Owning both can help smooth out your drawdowns and returns.
The same can be said for "mean-reversion" and "trend-following" strategies. Mean-reversion strategies involve buying assets that have made a big move downward. If you bought China stocks after their recent huge-selloff, that was a mean-reversion trade. Trend-following strategies, by contrast, involve buying assets that have made a big move upward. If you've bought oil and gas stocks in recent weeks, that was a trend-following trade. Both strategies tend to "work," but again, they're somewhat uncorrelated.
These strategies can further be broken down into short-term and long-term versions. Oil and gas is in a short-term uptrend, while the Nasdaq index is in a long-term uptrend. Facebook and Bristol-Myers Squibb are a short-term mean-reversion candidates after their recent sell-offs, while Calavo Growers and Regis Corporation are long-term mean-reversion candidates. The nice thing about using a mixture of short-term and long-term signals is that they allow you both to profit from stable market conditions and to quickly pivot at least some of your capital when market conditions change.
An oppertunistic shake-outSince I've posted the previous chart (on 1th of may) we can see the TTM squeeze hasn't completed yet (marked in upper chart with yellow circles).
But in my previous post, I've also explained how I use this DMI indicator to
signal the start of a new trend.
measure the fading trendline untill its end.
track the intermediate bearish pushes up till strength 40
The focus on strength 40 wasn't the right way to look at it. All the pumping happening at the time got to me, making me grow impatience. Because since I've posted that chart, these pushes became more dominant. And now we have had two consecutive bearish pushes. This can be described in two ways.
The first explanation (oppertunistic shakeout, my prospect. Previous analysis still applies):
When the trend is stale in both directions, it doesn't take a lot of force to move the price significantly. What this means is (I try to explain in layman's terms) less bears are necessary when the bulls are absent and vice-versa. The price shift is caused by opportunistic trades and do not have a fundamental catalyst. This does not cause a change in prospects but is psychologically torturing traders with long positions.
The second explanation, the reversal engages and a trend down is set. This is a premature conclusion and the chart is misinterpreted. I like to point out, misinterpreted. Not a false signal . It is extremely hard to predict a reversal (means charting before a reliable confirmation signal has happened). The DMI can be used for these things if used accordingly. We have 3 points in our chart that tell us we can't predict a reversal 'reliable'.
1. If we were to chart a new trend, this can only happen after the current trend halts.
- An example of a flaky trend stop signal would be on 23rd-24th april.
- An example of a clear trend stop signal would be on the 20th of march
No trend halts abrupt, nor is the halt always very clear. But we can see pretty obvious that the combined trend hasn't dropped below 20 since the 1th of may.
It has come close to 20, but didn't drop below it. And even if it did, it would take an additional bar (longer silence = more reliable) for an acceptable trend stop according to my own methods.
2. Both bearish pushes had less strength than past bullish push
3. The second bearish push was weaker than the first one, while the last bullish push was stronger than the bullish push before that.
If you enjoyed reading this please leave a comment. If you have any questions, please DM me. I can imagine you have questions, i am happy to answer them personally.
As I am a small analyst with few followers, comments actually give me huge dopamine rushes.
Don't fight the WORM, Ride ITWe act upon the stories we tell ourselves in our heads.
Make sure the stories you have are aligned with the market reality.
So here is another story, the market trend is like the WORM from the movie DUNE, when it comes, you don't stand in its way, you let it pass you and then you jump on its back, holding on with your hooks.
LETTING IT take you to your destination.
------------
We SEE the worm
We UNDERSTAND the worm
We TOUCH the worm
We ARE the WORM
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You can’t beat the marketToo many who are engaged in trading, try to guess what will be the exact short-term future course of the traded security (stock, commodity, etc.)
they are dealing with. Behind this futile effort is our ego that is convinced that we are smarter than the rest and so we can predict how the security
will move in the short-term, to take a suitable position and beat them.
I remember myself planning on paper, many years ago, how the market will move and making scenarios. Every time I broke my face, and so I realized that,
almost always, it is impossible to predict the short-term course of the market. I write almost always because sometimes your predictions actually come true,
but that's because the market wants it because it's a trap.
Now I want to be very specific about what I mean by the vague term ‘market’.
There is a widespread opinion that prices are formed by all of us who participate in the market through supply and demand – bulls and bears.
This view argues that an institutional investor or fund managing billions and a micro-investor have the same weight in market price formation.
Of course it goes without saying that this is not the case. The smart money (institutional investors, funds and powerful individuals) and the general public,
the small investors, are both shareholders in each security. Everyone aims to buy cheap and sell high. The truth is that only smart money has the means to do it.
So when I'm talking about the market, I actually mean smart money and its mechanisms because it is the smart money that shapes prices.
Thus the goal of the market is the following:
1) To get the public to sell at the lowest point possible during a crash, so that the smart money can buy at the cheapest price possible.
2) To get the public to buy at the highest point possible during a rise, so that the smart money can sell at the highest price possible.
So the small investor has to deal with the smart money and that is why it is extremely difficult to win in this fight, at least in the short-term.
Smart money with its means is always a step ahead because it controls the game. That's why you have to accept that it's almost impossible to beat the market in the short-term.
You cannot predict how it will move because it has all the current data (which you do not know) and will make whatever moves it takes to deactivate as many traders
(bulls or bears) as it can. The market is a master at deception. In each phase, the short-term course of a security has infinite ways to move and each pattern has the potential
to transform to a different one, depending on the positions taken by the other players in the market.
Here is an example where some of the possible metamorphoses of a formation are shown.
So if you can't beat the market and you can't predict its short-term future moves to get a suitable position, what can you do?
You can 'read' the movements made by a security in the past, using the tools of technical analysis. So you can see what is the long-term (years), mid-term (months)
and short-term (weeks) trend and understand the market's intentions for the future, i.e. whether it is intended to follow an upward, downward or lateral path.
Once you've made it clear what path the market wants to take, instead of trying to guess its short-term future moves, you need to focus on what market is doing NOW,
right now, and once the technical analysis gives you a medium-term input signal to hook up to the path the market has set until you get an exit signal, ignoring the short-term
misdirection moves it will make.
This is the technique of following the trend - you may have heard the saying 'follow the trend, the trend is your friend'. Here I must stress that if you are wrong about
the intentions of the market and follow the opposite path you must accept your mistake and close your position by taking your losses as long as they are small.
If you are a beginner or do not have sufficient knowledge of technical analysis, it is probable that you do not understand what I mean in the previous paragraph and I,
on the other hand, cannot make up for them in the space and time I have by making detailed explanations. That's why you should read books on technical analysis and
get the experience needed in real, in my opinion, conditions with little capital. Only if you lose and hurt, will you be forced to reflect on your mistakes and eventually
gain meaningful knowledge and experience. Then you'll be able to better comprehend what I mean.
Summarizing,
1) You can't beat the market in the short term. You can't predict its short-term future moves, so don't get carried away in short-term trading.
2) You can, with technical analysis, decode past market movements, determine what the long-term, mid-term and short-term trend is, and understand its intentions for the future.
3) You can monitor the movements that the market is making now and follow the medium-term trend it creates once you get an input signal from the indicators of technical analysis.
4) You can let your gains run.
5) You can exit the medium-term profitable trend if it goes to reverse as soon as you get an exit signal from the technical analysis indicators.
6) You can cut your losses early if you misdiagnosed the market's intentions.
A suitable system to implement what I mention above is the 30d/200d SMA system, which I have described in my post entitled ‘a trading system for rookies, simple, profitable
and capital protective’ you will find here
In fact this system is not only for beginners but also
for traders of every level who can simply, due to experience, apply it in the short-term.
Disclaimer
The writer of this text is not an investment advisor. The preceding content is intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only.
Before making any investment based on your own personal circumstances, it is very important to do your own research and analysis and also take independent
financial advice from a professional to verify any information provided here.
Trend following - a different way.As folk who follow my posts know, I don't keep any secrets.
I explain some of my methodology in this chart. It is bespoke.
To be 100% clear, this will not work 'for you'. No methodology works 'for you'. You work the methodology through experience to create your advantages. I'm not saying that people should change to this way. I do not interfere at all with what traders want to do in their favoured methodology. There is no one road to the promised land.
Controlling loss is the highest priority. The markets are there to 'eat you alive'.
Price action is an important part of all this. As well, it is important to understand your particular market and learn its ways. Oh yes - with time you can come to figure out certain probabilities that may not be shown in the 'technicals'.
What you see in this chart can be done on any time frame from 3 min to 1-day. I can't explain everything in one chart. I've done videos on this before.
Note carefully: I do not sell anything. I do not do trainings or take anybody's money. I do not sign up to any services. I do not provide evidence of winnings or losses.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
EDUCATION _Trend duration All trends can be divided by:
short-term;
medium-term;
long-term.
To determine the duration of a trend, you need to use senior timeframes. In classical theory, trends are divided into annual, monthly and daily trends. For scalping, as a rule, we have enough:
define a long-term trend on a 1-day chart;
medium-term trends will be 1-4 hours;
short-term trends at 5 and 15 minutes.
Thus, we can see the picture, when a single long-term trend consists of several medium and short-term trends. This is often the mistake of beginners. They put one frame, like 5 minutes, define trends, but forget to define medium- and long-term trends. And then they wonder why this price has suddenly turned around at 5-minute. That's why on another timeframe the picture looks different.
Say, what do you see on these 5 minutes?
Does the price, like an abnormal price, fall down after a side movement? Absolutely.
Thus, we can see the picture, when a single long-term trend consists of several medium and short-term trends. This is often the mistake of beginners. They put one frame, like 5 minutes, define trends, but forget to define medium- and long-term trends. And then they wonder why this price has suddenly turned around at 5-minute. That's why on another timeframe the picture looks different.
Say, what do you see on these 5 minutes?
Does the price, like an abnormal price, fall down after a side movement? Absolutely.
the same chart looks like on the 4-hour time frame:
It is very important to understand where we are in the trend.
You can see the types of trends in this post:
Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU.
MONEY BOTH WAYS - IS THAT OKAY?Many people have asked me what I'm doing and how I'm doing it. Basically - it's very different.
This is an educational post. I'm an open book - no secrets. This methodology is a bespoke trend following strategy. It loses! You got that? It also wins.
The job of a trader is to use any methodology to limit losses and maximise gains. That only comes with lots of practice. It doesn't matter which system you use. Perfect our skills on paper trading accounts - Tradingview has an excellent free paper trading account. Blow up no fewer than 10 of those. 😃😂 Seriously it's a good idea to do it that way.
But in my own methodology, I've noticed that when following a trend it is a good idea to take profits in a sudden deep RSI if going short (and very high RSI if long). The rebellions nearly always comes.
In this 2H strategy would be nested other trends on say 5 min or 15 min. Those who need to see more can check my scenario on Gold.
I also combine 'theory of curves' in my trend expectations (not predictions). I predict nothing in trend following. How would I know how far the trend is going? I can't know!
See also EURAUD 1H
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
GOLD: Exploiting a trend - secrets shared! Some have asked me about my rather different methodology. This 15 min chart of Gold which isn't my favourite, shows it all. No secrets. No fees. No signups. No signals. No obligations! 😃👍 The position setup shown looks back only to show how it works. There are 5 points at which this trend could have been shorted. If you're a day trader, you might have lost some sleep on this one, but it would have been worth as much as 69 points, or multiply that by whatever you put in for a position sizes. If you had the 'bottle' (not recommending alcohol), you could have added one or two position sizes. (The trend shown could have happened on any time frame - no law says it couldn't. Unlikely on a 4H but who cares).
Some knew that gold was likely to head south, but nobody could predict how far, when an important plunge came. Trends predict nothing. You just follow and 'a system' can determine your get-out point.
I can't provide skill in this methodology. It sure has it's losses like any other methodology. I can only show how it's composed. The following are important:
1 - one has to spot the trend switch early - so alerts can be set up to spot it.
2 - flattening of price and trend may say something is about to happen (north or south)
3 - price alerts can be set up, so you know to look when something happens (if you're asleep - tough).
4 - an initial RSI plunge or punch does not necessarily mean that price is going to recoil - it could mean start of a big move.
5 - do not fear the RSI - but respect it.
6 - take some or all profits in a very deep or high RSI (depending on direction of trade).
7 - Watch for a 'theory of curves ' - it often gives a warning of the trend ending (approx 55% chance).
Skill in any methodology means lots of time and effort sequencing and practicing. Do it on a paper trading account. If you don't do the time you don't get the 'dime'.
One day traders will wake up to the value of teamwork. So some can take the watch while others have a nap - the 'watchman' wakes everybody when important stuff happens. 😃🤣
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
What is Intvesting, how to? How to invest in gold?Interesting era. Everyone is just jumping into investing.
With brokers advertising how easy it is "just send a couple hundreds and get started right away", day trading instructors, central banks & regulators doing everything in their power so absentee afk passive investors that just randomly throw money at broad indexes do not lose money.
Anything but that!
Well that's not how it is supposed to be and the US are now experiencing a communist uprising so well done here.
The world is moving towards a new world order and the infinite free money bubble will end. Lazy bums born into wealth are going down.
Nothing is priced correctly, the rich get richer just because of how the system is built, and it is worse in the usa where they print money for the rich and export some of the inflation, of course all these blm & antifa clowns are too stupid to figure that one out but this is the reason why they are so angry.
Investors are supposed to add value and make their money via superior intuition and knowledge, they use their above average foresight and understanding of whatever they trade to allocate capital correctly.
The only day traders that make money are those that access to level 2 market data and what they do is front run participants, this does not make as much money.
I irritates me seing clueless people talk about FX & Futures day trading. This is not stocks. The markets are not open 8 hours a day what's wrong with you?
So there are 2 types (not counting all the ones that lose money):
-> Day traders that are like little aphids living on plants, tiny little parasites that cannot make lots of money
-> Passive investors that pat themselves on the back for buying random indexes or property, they're like big gross worm parasites that live in intestines
These passive investors are like renters of the 19th century that got very wealthy doing nothing, and gave Karl Marx & Engels their wonderful ideas.
So. The paradigm is changing, new world order, great reset, everything. Unlike anything we experienced in our lifetimes.
People should start getting used to NOT making money doing nothing, this paradigm is over. If crooked politicians try bailing out the banks with taxpayers money they'll get decapitated. It is possible the angry mobs even manage to figure out they do it indirectly, but even if they don't the party is over anyway it will all collapse like Zimbabwe.
George Soros which is one of the earliest macro/forex traders and the best performing one to this day, said that investors and speculators were the same, investors make money by finding cheap businesses or fair priced, that they believe will do well in the future, and if they are right they make a return for correctly speculating.
There is no "long term" trick. "Historically always go up". No. These people will learn a harsh lesson. Trying to find tricks to be lazy and cheat their way into wealth pssst.
Sure if you sacrifice your money today, place it somewhere rather than enjoy it, you should get something in return, but not 13% compounded a year.
I'm not going to make a whole investing guide nor a general introduction here, but let's look at the case of gold: what are the different approaches?
1- Wealth preservation
2- "Investing" long term speculation looking for 3k, 5k, or more
3- Trying to catch short term rallies inside of the bull market
This is what I do. Very short term I would say even. 2 weeks ago I even had several operations with gold where I stayed in only a few hours, I remember one of them I entered during the late afternoon and got out at 3 am.
"Why only take small bits if you see a big bull market rather than try to get all of it"
Idk I'm impatient. And more importantly I'm good at it, and some of these crazy moves are just so unidirectional you get both a high probability of success AND big risk to reward ratios.
I'm still (bag)holding my first speculative trade, you'll never guess what it is xd
4- Get rich quick
==> Either a delusional gambler or the greatest investor of all time
Enjoy losing everything
Ok that's enough. Either way, one should do their research (this means more than 30 minutes of watching youtube) and have a plan.
Silver is greatly outperforming gold now, I love it
Just so much stronger! I called it in my 07 August update in the idea below ("I would buy some silver on the pullback. Expecting gold to slow down and silver to go fast now.")
This is why I am very active and operate on short time frames. I'm rather bullish on metals compared to fiat in the long term but I am not going to predict targets, or which metal will go up most in the next years, but I will predict what will happen in the next days with good accuracy. And I'm too impatient with a atrophied attention span to look at years anyway. I have my big doubts on accurate long term prediction, with all the chaos that adds up over time.
JOURNEY SOUTH?The most important part of trading - especially with true trend-following - is stalking your prey very very carefully. The next is controlling loss.
Trend followers suffer heavier controlled losses - but also enjoy far greater gains - than those who rely on targets-based methods of trading. It is certainly not for 'everybody'. Only about 20% of all traders are true trend followers. Trend continuity trading is not trend-following.
Of high importance with 'stalking' any particular trend - because losses can be heavier - is the entry point. For example the ideal entry point in the chart snapshot would have been close to 26000. Anything much lower than that means risking heavier losses.
I'm often asked if A, B, or C instrument is heading north or south. Most traders when they ask this sort of question are not thinking in terms of time frame. They're mainly looking at price and thinking R:R ratio. In trend following all you can do is control the loss. You do not know how much you may eventually gain. That's why it's very scary! But this is not a tutorial on trend following techniques or strategy.
Overall though, one just has to pick a trend control loss and follow on that chosen time frame. It could be a lowly 1 min trend to a higher 1H trend - whatever you want so long as you can take the loss without flinching. I almost never get involved with higher than 1H trends these days.
For those new to trend-following, from my experience, a simple 5 min trend can take up to about 2 days before it reverses. A 15 min trend can last several days. 1H trends can last a couple weeks. Of course, they can be very short lived too.
Trend followers will also use harmonic patterns and other methods to assess key entry points. So 'we' don't have a problem with other methodologies. We'll use anything to get a pound of flesh out of the markets. But following the trend is the big thing.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Micro-trend exploitationI share a lessons learned with small time frame trend exploitation. Note that not because it's a small timeframe means it's insignificant. Small trends run for many hours and can accrue hundreds of points, as I show.
This methodology is specifically about trend following. It requires practice preferably on demo or paper accounts, in order to acquire skill.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
AUD/USD - Explosive analysis - ASRThis is a great first post!!!
So recently we transferred from our other tradingview accounts and decided to start afresh, again with a trading view orientated around our Fund
W2 Capital - Select Alpha, and our trading community W2 Trading!!! with that in mind as we near the end of January 2020, Bradley and I spent some time conducting our A.S.R and going over the data for AUD/USD to capture our trading data and dig deeper into the statistics behind our positions!!!!
This is just a snippet of how we trade and exploit our Edge to capture Alpha!!!
January has been an insane month and we are looking for to opening up our doors and providing you all with extreme value whilst helping you learn how to trade the financial markets!!!
BASICS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - TREND - SUPPORT - RESISTANCESimple explanation about trend, support and resistance.
A trend can move in two directions. An uptrend defined by higher lows and higher highs, or a downtrend defined by lower highs and lower lows.
Then there is the sideways phase . As the name suggests, there is no trend here.
The trend line will be pulled upwards along the significant lows during an uptrend and pulled up the significant highs during the uptrend.
Common mistakes with a candlestick chart (candles chart) which I could observe here: The lines are partially pulled along the candle bodies and that is FALSE. If there is a shadow, then the line is drawn on the shadow and not on the body!!!
Resistance: When a price moves from the bottom to the top and pull back on the same point (price) over and over again.
Support: When a short moves from the top to the bottom and pull back on the same point (price) over and over again.
Candlestick Definition History
Candlestick charts are thought to have been developed in the 18th century by Munehisa Homma, a Japanese rice trader. They were introduced to the Western world by Steve Nison in his book, Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques. They are often used today in stock analysis along with other analytical tools such as Fibonacci analysis.
In Beyond Candlesticks, Nison says:
However, based on my research, it is unlikely that Homma used candle charts. As will be seen later, when I discuss the evolution of the candle charts, it was more likely that candle charts were developed in the early part of the Meiji period in Japan (in the late 1800s).
Description
The area between the open and the close is called the real body, price excursions above and below the real body are shadows (also called wicks). Wicks illustrate the highest and lowest traded prices of an asset during the time interval represented. The body illustrates the opening and closing trades.
the asset closed higher than it opened, the body is hollow or unfilled, with the opening price at the bottom of the body and the closing price at the top. If the asset closed lower than it opened, the body is solid or filled, with the opening price at the top and the closing price at the bottom. Thus, the color of the candle represents the price movement relative to the prior period's close and the "fill" (solid or hollow) of the candle represents the price direction of the period in isolation (solid for a higher open and lower close; hollow for a lower open and a higher close). A black (or red) candle represents a price action with a lower closing price than the prior candle's close. A white (or green) candle represents a higher closing price than the prior candle's close. In practice, any color can be assigned to rising or falling price candles. A candlestick need not have either a body or a wick. Generally, the longer the body of the candle, the more intense the trading. A hollow body signifies that the stock closed higher than its opening value. A filled body signifies the opposite.
In trading, the trend of the candlestick chart is critical and often shown with colors.
A candlestick pattern is a special occurrence of one or more candlesticks on a candlestick chart, which have predictive nature in technical analysis.
Rather than using the open, high, low, and close values for a given time interval, candlesticks can also be constructed using the open, high, low, and close of a specified volume range (for example, 1,000; 100,000; 1 million shares per candlestick). In modern charting software, volume can be incorporated into candlestick charts by increasing or decreasing candlesticks width according to the relative volume for a given time period.