Ripple (XRP) Model PriceAn article titled Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model was published in March 2019 by "PlanB" with mathematical model used to calculate Bitcoin model price during the time. We know that Ripple has a strong correlation with Bitcoin. But does this correlation have a definite rule?
In this study, we examine the relationship between bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio and the ripple(XRP) price.
The Halving and the stock-to-flow ratio
Stock-to-flow is defined as a relationship between production and current stock that is out there.
SF = stock / flow
The term "halving" as it relates to Bitcoin has to do with how many Bitcoin tokens are found in a newly created block. Back in 2009, when Bitcoin launched, each block contained 50 BTC, but this amount was set to be reduced by 50% every 210,000 blocks (about 4 years). Today, there have been three halving events, and a block now only contains 6.25 BTC. When the next halving occurs, a block will only contain 3.125 BTC. Halving events will continue until the reward for minors reaches 0 BTC.
With each halving, the stock-to-flow ratio increased and Bitcoin experienced a huge bull market that absolutely crushed its previous all-time high. But what exactly does this affect the price of Ripple?
Price Model
I have used Bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio and Ripple's price data from April 1, 2014 to November 3, 2021 (Daily Close-Price) as the statistical population.
Then I used linear regression to determine the relationship between the natural logarithm of the Ripple price and the natural logarithm of the Bitcoin's stock-to-flow (BSF).
You can see the results in the image below:
Basic Equation : ln(Model Price) = 3.2977 * ln(BSF) - 12.13
The high R-Squared value (R2 = 0.83) indicates a large positive linear association.
Then I "winsorized" the statistical data to limit extreme values to reduce the effect of possibly spurious outliers (This process affected less than 4.5% of the total price data).
ln(Model Price) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) - 12.214
If we raise the both sides of the equation to the power of e, we will have:
============================================
Final Equation:
■ Model Price = Exp(- 12.214) * BSF ^ 3.3297
Where BSF is Bitcoin's stock-to-flow
============================================
If we put current Bitcoin's stock-to-flow value (54.2) into this equation we get value of 2.95USD. This is the price which is indicated by the model.
There is a power law relationship between the market price and Bitcoin's stock-to-flow (BSF). Power laws are interesting because they reveal an underlying regularity in the properties of seemingly random complex systems.
I plotted XRP model price (black) over time on the chart.
Estimating the range of price movements
I also used several bands to estimate the range of price movements and used the residual standard deviation to determine the equation for those bands.
Residual STDEV = 0.82188
ln(First-Upper-Band) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) - 12.214 + Residual STDEV =>
ln(First-Upper-Band) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) – 11.392 =>
■ First-Upper-Band = Exp(-11.392) * BSF ^ 3.3297
In the same way:
■ First-Lower-Band = Exp(-13.036) * BSF ^ 3.3297
I also used twice the residual standard deviation to define two extra bands:
■ Second-Upper-Band = Exp(-10.570) * BSF ^ 3.3297
■ Second-Lower-Band = Exp(-13.858) * BSF ^ 3.3297
These bands can be used to determine overbought and oversold levels.
Estimating of the future price movements
Because we know that every four years the stock-to-flow ratio, or current circulation relative to new supply, doubles, this metric can be plotted into the future.
At the time of the next halving event, Bitcoins will be produced at a rate of 450 BTC / day. There will be around 19,900,000 coins in circulation by August 2025
It is estimated that during first year of Bitcoin (2009) Satoshi Nakamoto (Bitcoin creator) mined around 1 million Bitcoins and did not move them until today. It can be debated if those coins might be lost or Satoshi is just waiting still to sell them but the fact is that they are not moving at all ever since. We simply decrease stock amount for 1 million BTC so stock to flow value would be:
BSF = (19,900,000 – 1.000.000) / (450 * 365) =115.07
Thus, Bitcoin's stock-to-flow will increase to around 115 until AUG 2025. If we put this number in the equation:
Model Price = Exp(- 12.214) * 114 ^ 3.3297 = 36.06$
Ripple has a fixed supply rate. In AUG 2025, the total number of coins in circulation will be about 56,000,000,000. According to the equation, Ripple's market cap will reach $2 trillion.
Note that these studies have been conducted only to better understand price movements and are not a financial advice.
Ripple
RoboBTC V.0.1About it: RoboBTC is the indicator created specifically for all those who want to find the right time to buy or sell cryptocurrencies, without having to spend too much time in front of the screen monitoring the markets, and avoiding buying or selling at the wrong time.
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[astropark] 4h Crypto/USDT Strategy [alarms]Dear Followers,
today a new Swing and Scalper Tool , which works great for Cryptocurrencies on the USDT market on 4h timeframe .
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[astropark] 4h Crypto/USDT Strategy [strategy]Dear Followers,
today a new Swing and Scalper Tool , which works great for Cryptocurrencies on the USDT market on 4h timeframe .
This tool has some cool features:
it works on many timeframes, but best one is 4H timeframe : so you can enjoy both manual and bot trading by using a 24/7 running bot;
it comes in three working mode : default, alternative and high frequency ;
auto-stoploss: you can enable an stoploss in trade, bot will follow
It's always suggested to use a proper money and risk management in trades. This is not the "Holy Grail", it does not exist.
Strategy results are calculated from the beginning of 2018 till now, so more than 2 years, using 10000$ as initial capital and working at 1x leverage (no leverage at all!) and 0.1% trading fee already applied.
You can always DM me if you need any help to configure it on your preferred chart or if you want a customization of this bot for a specific pair.
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Bybit 1h Strategy - BlockchainSpecialistsHi,
This strategy is a combination of multiple different trend identifying and mean reversion indicators. It aims to work on all Bybit Crypto/USD pairs on the hourly time frame. It works on other time frames but not to the same levels of success. I've tried to keep it as simple as possible by making the indicator flash or alert when a long/short entry has been identified, and also when long/short exit criteria has been met. Make sure to wait until the candle has closed and the indicator has finished forming otherwise you could get jumpy alerts. To clarify this is what you need to look out for:
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-1 = Short Signal
2 = Long/Short exit (this will only flash when a position is currently open)
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USDT SupplyThis script shows the USDT (Tether) supply, total USDT market capitalization and USDT supply on various Cryptocurrency exchanges.
It is based on this script:
Changes:
- added HiTBTC and Huobi exchange
- updated to Pine Script v4
- improved default style and line width to highlight global USDT plots against exchange-specific plot lines
[astropark] Renko OBV divergencesDear Followers,
today a new great Scalper Tool , based on Ob Balance Volume (OBV) oscillator, which works from 1 minute timeframe Renko chart , which is the best and more secure timeframe to use on a Renko chart. But of course it works great on all timeframes (included the 1D timeframe), both on FOREX and on Cryptocurrencies!
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DD_Bravo_StrategyThe DD_Bravo_Strategy is a mean reversal strategy that captures oversold or overbought levels, and accordingly goes long or short. It is based on price difference between successive candles and normalization of this difference. It works best on 12H timeframe for BTCUSD.
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EVWMA VWAP MACD Strategy [QuantNomad]Based on comment of @coondawg71 I tried to compare VWAP and EVWMA.
Both are sort of moving averages so I decided to create a MACD based on these 2 indicators.
In parameters you can set EVWMA Length and 2 smoothing lengths for "macd" and "signal".
Strategy seems to work pretty good at 2h-8h timeframes for crypto.
What do you thing about it?
On Balance Volume Oscillator Strategy [QuantNomad]Looking for the way to use OBV Oscillator in a strategy.
Here is my first try. I just enter to position of a cross of 2 emas based on OBV.
Here is my original oscillator indicator:
Noodles ema bands + BUY/SELL signal CandleEma bands as support and resistance based on 12/26.
+Buy and Sell signal candle (green and red)
This script work better on 1 hour timeframe. for altcoin change setup from source: ''LOW'' to ''OPEN''
UltraInstinto 2.0BITMEX:ETHUSD
UltraInstinto 2.0 is a trend hunter tool, based on the latest artificial inteligence algorithms it can take decisions on real time, on any frametime, buy when the green arrow appears, and sell when the red arrow appears, easier than play fortnite, and returns you a lot of money
Buy & Sell XRPBTC:BINANCE 1D Trading BotWith this indicator you can create Buy and Sell alerts to automate your trading.
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ripple clouds(lirshah)ripple cloud strategy is a back-test which has been written according to corresponding indicator.
the strategy has good results on bchusd and xbtusd
Ripple/USD Total VolumesHello traders!
This tool shows you Ripple/USD total trade volumes from the all (well, almost) cryptocurrency exchanges on different timeframes.
Supported timeframes
"1"
"3"
"5"
"10"
"15"
"30"
"45"
"60" - 1 hour
"120" - 2 hours
"180" - 3 hours
"240" - 4 hours
"300" - 5 hours
"360" - 6 hours
"420" - 7 hours
"480" - 8 hours
"540" - 9 hours
"600" - 10 hours
"660" - 11 hours
"720" - 12 hours
"780" - 13 hours
"840" - 14 hours
"900" - 15 hours
"960" - 16 hours
"1020" - 17 hours
"1080" - 18 hours
"1140" - 19 hours
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"D"
"2D"
"3D"
"W"
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How to get access
Buy for only 20$ to get lifetime access to this indicator
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XRPBTCBITFINEXLONGCHANGEBTC建てのロングポジションの変化を示します。
ゼロラインよりも上側のヒストグラムは、ロングポジションの増加を意味します。
ゼロラインよりも下側のヒストグラムは、ロングポジションの減少を意味します。
市場心理を推測し、今後の値動きを予想することに役立ちます。
機械翻訳 Machine translation
The change in long position of BTC is shown.
The histogram above the zero line means an increase in long position.
The histogram below the zero line means a decrease in long position.
It is useful for estimating market psychology and forecasting future price movements.
XRPUSD LONG/SHORT RATIO BITFINEXXRP longs and shorts on finex.
Red line -> Shorts
Green line -> Longs
Area -> Longs/Shorts normalized.
-- Ultimate Crypto Trading Strategy -- By @CryptoNTez -- Ultimate EMA Cross Strategy. Easy and profitable strategy optimized for Crypto.
This script will signal Long and Exit signals on different timeframes based on different indicators using HA candles
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ripple cloudsripple cloud is another trend indicator which shows the both trend and range of volatility
Rainbow RoadRainbow Road allows you to visualise the price in relation to the barriers of support and resistance that are the moving averages. The price can be observed breaking above barriers , or falling below them.
Rainbow Road displays these bands like a ribbon so that the strength or weakness of a security such as Bitcoin, can be observed in a very vibrant and obvious fashion.
The name "Rainbow Road" is inspired by the final course of the Special Cup featured in all Mario Kart games and is the climactic course of each game it appears.
.,-'"*.,-'"*Housekeeping*"'-,.*"'-,.
In order for you to make your chart look exactly like this one when you apply the Rainbow Road indicator, you will need to follow these simple steps.
1. Right click on your chart -> Price Scale -> Undo Indicator Labels
2. Right click on your chart -> Price Scale -> Undo Indicator Last Value
3. Right click on your chart -> Color Theme -> Black
4. Right click on your chart -> Properties -> Background -> Vert Grid Lines -> Slide transparency bar -> Horz Grid Lines -> Slide transparency bar
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I appreciate the feedback of all of my followers!
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UncleBoUncleBo looks for the institutional finger prints, the whales or the big boys.
Looks for price, volume , momentum analysis tools and COMBINES the most famous indicators.
Works for any kind of market.
Only thing you have to do is forget about any indicator you used before and look at lines. This helps you overcome your emotions.
