MOVE, VIX, YIELD and Equity misalignWhen the Equity does not move along with the other three indexes, which are at extreme levels, I am not sure if risk on is a wise idea.
ISP1! trade ideas
ES Futures Trade Idea: Santa Rally Expectationswww.tradingview.com
The ES futures market has maintained a bullish trajectory in 2024, with few pullbacks along the way. Currently, the futures are consolidating near All-Time Highs, setting the stage for a pivotal week ahead.
Key Catalysts to Watch
Wednesday, December 18th, 2024
FED Interest Rate Decision
Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)
FOMC Meeting
These events could provide the momentum needed to fuel a potential Santa Claus Rally. However, whether this materializes remains uncertain.
Additional Economic Data
The economic calendar this week is packed with key data releases, beginning with the preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI readings at 8:45 AM CT today. On Tuesday, the spotlight will be on November US Retail Sales, while Thursday, December 19th, 2024, brings a flurry of critical updates, including the Bank of England (BOE) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate decisions, Q3 US GDP, initial jobless claims, and November existing home sales. The week concludes on Friday, with the release of the FED’s preferred Core PCE Price Index for November at 7:30 AM CT, offering fresh insights into inflation trends.
Key Levels to Watch:
Target for Bulls: 6295-6310
Line in Sand (LIS): 6045-6055
R1: 6105-6115
R2: 6145-6155
R3: 6195-6205
S1: 5970-5960
S2: 5855-5835
Key Support S3: 5735-5745
Possible Scenarios
Scenario 1: Sustained Bullish Movement and Santa Rally
In this bullish case, ES futures break out of the consolidation zone following the FED announcements. This could lead to a year-end rally with prices targeting the Fibonacci extension level at 6312.50, setting the stage for continued gains into Q1 2025.
Scenario 2: Santa Rally Followed by Pullback
Here, the FED-driven Santa rally kicks off but encounters resistance. After the initial bullish push, the market consolidates into year-end as traders await fresh inflows and sector rotations in January for the next directional move.
Both scenarios hinge on key data releases and market reaction to the FED’s guidance. Keep an eye on the Line in the Sand (LIS) at 6045–6055, as it represents a critical level for the ongoing trend.
This week’s calendar is packed with high-impact events that could drive volatility and shape the near-term outlook for ES futures. Stay prepared!
Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal opinions and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Derivatives involve a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors.
ES/SPY/SPX Road to 7000 & beyond - A plausible scenarioThesis : In the past when market rests above 1.618 extension from the previous move, suggesting consolidation and potential move higher. If price is a fractal and we are in melt up scenario..then mid year paves the way to 6900+ and post that 5600 by year end..check it out
#202450 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futurestl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures: Same as for dax. Shallow two-legged pullback to the moving average is a perfect buy signal once we trade above 6087 again. I have targets at 6300 or higher and the chart is as clear as it gets. Only a daily close below 6000 would change the outlook.
Quote from last week:
comment: Chart is clear, do not look for shorts until we see bigger selling pressure. Current structure has a lot of room to the upside, if you like it or not. My tl;dr covered most of it.
comment: Nothing has changed from last week. Market went nowhere and it has formed a perfect very shallow two-legged pullback to the ema. Above 6080 it’s a clear buy signal and I can see this going for 6300 into year end. No bearish thoughts, since bulls are in full control and best bears could do last week was a 70 point pullback. That is as weak as it gets.
current market cycle: Bull trend - very late
key levels: 6000 - 6300
bull case: Chart is still the same and structure did not change. Once we break above, long it for 6150+. Nothing more to say about this.
Invalidation is below 6000.
bear case: Dax outlook covers also sp500 and nasdaq. Bears are not doing anything and until they come around big time, only look for longs. Bears need a daily close below 6000 for me to reevaluate.
Invalidation is above 6120.
outlook last week:
short term: I won’t put out a bullish outlook after such a climactic rally without any decent pullbacks. You can only go wrong here. Neutral until bears come around and if the rally continues, it will be without me. If bears come around, first target is obviously 6000 and there I expect another bounce before market decides if it wants to go below 6000 or not.
→ Last Sunday we traded 6099 and now we are at 6055. Good outlook.
short term: Neutral until we break above 6080 and then 6120. Above 6120, market has to find a top and that could be all the way up to 6300.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed the potential bearish two-legged correction. Only bullish targets remain for now.
MES1! a nice setup to the downside.Looking on the HTF, my gut say we are bound for the last level presented in the idea.
We have 3 potential pivot therefore 3 take profit areas.
1. 6042.75 - If this becomes support we are unto a big move to the upside. A running SL will be made.
2. 6029.75 - This support is a very strong one which is highly probable to be the pivot we are looking for (IF WE GET ACCEPTANCE BELOW 6042.75)
3. 6015.00 - Expecting a huge bounce here therefore a high probable long setup can be prepared here
Where we go from here on ES--> A dipper and ripperIn my previous post i warned that market will tank and it did. Now where we go from here. As opex week is next week, i have my sell signal active , which means market still will go down. My opinion is market will go down to ES- 6020 level on monday, then by wednesday i will look for buy signal and probably we will end the week at all time high. Probably a bear trap first before a bull run.I hope you enjoy the analysis.
2hr Gartley on ES Afternoon IdeaNice 2hr gartley pattern formed on ES in the afternoon session. Tracking down to the 15m timeframe you also have RSI divergence with price pushing lower but RSI making higher lows. In addition RSI was oversold.
On the 2hr we also had the 200 EMA as additional support right at the completion of the Gartley. I would expect a small move up about 8 points to the 38.2 which looks like we already got. Runners would be to the 618 about 20 points away BUT its Friday afternoon so do not hold your breath for that big a move.
ES going into CPICame back to analyze the ES pre-CPI one more time. I didn't manage to publish this prior to release, as the inflation data just came out as I'm typing this, but looks like CPI came in as expected so no surprises.
Ultimately, we did get a potential buy signal on Monday as I expected. It did come with a bit of a push down. I'm still not sure I want to go Long, especially as the ES contract is running on Z24, which will expire soon. The official expiry is the third Friday of the month, but depending on the broker it may cut you off a few days before that, so there isn't much time to hold that trade and the ESH25 contract coming in is already about 70 points higher than our current position.
I will likely look for entry into 6E or 6C contracts if they dip lower or show good data into entry points for even soft rebounds.
Look for potential disruptions if we get PPI higher than normal that mathematically shows CPE could come in higher than expected. Fed Decision is next week also, which may setup the sentiment going into long term planning of 2025.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management!
seeing the daily range before it happens with ict concepts on esprice is finding support in a series of candles forming a h4 breaker on the left side, we can see it forms a manipulation leg lower at the end of the afternoon session closing below the breaker bodies, but then gapping up on new day open. looking up, we can see a h1 imbalance that was never touched, and a series of relative equal highs. fridays are often bullish, and with no news we dont expect a huge move. so looking for price to go up with the 2am gbp gdp and than start is judas swing lower at 3am trapping everyone long. then since there is nothing going on, it can chop around for a while only to go up again and dump at 930 even lower. at this point, its free to spend the rest of the day in a high resistance run up to the equal highs and large imbalance around 6088. using a standard deviation of 3 off the h1 cisd takes you above afternoon highs, and to the top of a series of candle bodies forming rejection block, which could provide further retracement. you could long the asia high which is also a breaker, if it manipulates down there at 930am with your stop at the new day gap low targetting 6088
Inside dayAfter sellers pushed the S&P 500 daily chart down inside the range of Wednesday's up day, I am not looking for a large move to the downside or the upside as we go into this weekend. Rather, I am looking for Friday to trade inside the range of Thursday's price action.
S&P 500 Third of a ThirdLooking at the way the price structured the pattern. I lean hard into it moving down into the second swing. We are at the end of sub-wave two of the ongoing second swing at this juncture. Just by logic having wave two end means we are moving into a third wave territory. Third waves are, in most cases, the best and most aggressive move to trade in. Thus the high at 6,085 should hold until we see it make a new low past the first swing low of 6039.25
Happy Trading :)
ES1! morning analysisBig picture analysis for ES1!
Proposed primary wave ((1)) terminating in March 2000, primary wave ((2)) terminating in March 2009 as a zigzag, and primary wave ((3)) terminating in January 2022.
Proposed primary wave ((4)) seen as an expanded flat, with wave A terminating in October 2022 and wave B at or near termination now. Wave C would take price below October 2022 low, with parallel channel providing price support above 3000 and wave C terminating near the wave (4) of lesser degree.
/ES Futures in a Bull Flag Over Prior High/ES futures are trying to break out of a bull flag that has been built over the prior ATH from earlier in November.
A successful breakout may target the measured move above.
Will PPI add fuel to the fire?Buyers reenter the daily S&P 500 market on Wednesday based on CPI data. Now will PPI data be able to add fuel to the fire and continue this market higher the objective is 6120.
2024-12-11 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Bullish breakout again. CPI was in line and no one cares about bad news, when markets can only go up. Same reasoning for sp500 & nasdaq as on dax. We can do higher highs but I don’t think we will go much further. Sideways inside the given range is my assumption. Sp500 will likely hit 6000 before end of the week.
comment: Late rallies in trends based on neutral news (at best) is never a reason to expect big follow through. Bulls printed a good daily but still a lower high. A measured move up would get us to around 6130, depending on how you calculate it. Since I have another target around 6160, it’s somewhat ok. There are also 2 upper bull trend lines but they are above 6200, so let’s not focus on them as of now. I still have my doubts we just move higher in an Opex week with that euphoric sentiment but I won’t say it can not happen. Tomorrow will be important. If bulls don’t get the follow through, we will likely test 6000 next.
current market cycle: bull trend - late and will end soon
key levels: 6000 - 6170
bull case: Bulls should not let the market drop below 6070-6080 if they want the momentum to continue. We have the obvious target 6113 and above that I got 6130 next. How likely is another strong leg up? Bulls bought near the bull trend line and we are inside a decent channel and nested bull wedges. They have many arguments on their side to continue higher inside the current structure.
Invalidation is below 6000.
bear case: Bears quickly gave up after the CPI spike and let the market rip to 6100. The bears can argue a couple of things. First is the euphoric sentiment in a globex week. It’s unlikely that we close the week at the very highs. Next is the higher time frame argument for a two-legged pullback. On the daily chart the move down to 6039 can be seen as A, B today hit 6102 and C could give us 5973 or at least 6000. If I had to guess as of now, chop between 6050 - 6100 is the most likely outcome.
Invalidation is above 6130.
short term: Neutral. I won’t buy near or above 6100 but I will also not short after a 50 point ripper. Tough spot right now and I expect more fake moves to both sides until end of Friday.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-11: Will write an update after Opex on Friday. If we stay above 6000, can print 6200 easily into year end. If Friday closes below 6000, we could drop some more and upside above 6100 will also probably be limited.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Question on those news spike is always, could you have anticipated it? Don’t play that game, it’s a fools game and you have no edge. Next best question is, could you have longed after the initial spike? Yeah you can but stop had to be 6045 and that would have been 20+ points already. Since market just continued above the 5m 20ema, any long was obviously the right call after the spike. Still tough to take since your stop is so far away.
Is there any bearish case against the ES?Hope you enjoy the video. I finished my trade on the 6E this morning from 1.037ish to 1.063, so I came back to look at the ES and see how I felt things were looking for a bearish case scenario. Ultimately, while I want to find one, I don't see one, and will likely continue to stay out of my beloved ES for the moment, in spite of my urge to short this overbought market.
I am getting signals all over, but most will require a decision at EOD today or I could always make the decision Sunday evening or early Monday before markets open.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
50-50The S&P 500 market response to CPI data being released on Wednesday is 50-50 for a directional move.
ES new levels for tomorrow ES retracements (blue) and targets/extensions (grey boxes) for tonight/tomorrow.
S&P Correction, More Downturns ExpectedEven though the price traded slightly higher than the closing price on Friday, we did not see it make another high. Instead, it has started its descent into forming what I expect will be a more moderate retracement before we continue the upward trajectory.
The first swing down, just on the look of it, seems to be at or close to completion. Assuming this is true, the best course of action is to wait for the upcoming intra-correction rally of the B wave. Subsequently, we can look to position an order to take advantage of the second swing down to complete a classical zigzag pattern.
The correction so far has reached the 23.6 level retracement of the previous third wave total advance. Still, we would ideally like to see it travel into at least the 38.2% retracement, which coincides somewhat closely with the ending area of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. This is one of the main target areas we look for on the travel of a 4th wave.
I will keep updating as the price and the pattern continue to develop.
Happy Trading :)
On 1 min chart, Bullish Reaper possibleThere could be a 1 min Bullish Reaper for a quick Bullish Scalp.
However, I didn't see any DOL. It doesn't fulfill my fundamental setup, i.e. to spot my DOL first.
I made the mistake yesterday. I will not enter with such uncertainty today.
ES potential short term top After roughly 90 days of upside, ES has now hit a Fib extension resistance on a larger scale. The Ideal scenario would be a retracement of some smaller fibs at target #1, then finally a retest of big support at target #2.
