Calling it nowBased of range projections, and price respecting Apr,4 daily FVG -, price is not slowing down, Last year low of (4,702.00) will get ran. Come back when im right😳
ISP1! trade ideas
$MES1! Could Drop to Oct 2022's Fib 0.618 Level @ 4,520Monthly (April 2025)
- #TheStrat: 2u-2d-2d continuation
- Price stopped at the monthly 0.50 fib (Oct 2022 - Feb 2025)
Weekly (Mon April 7 - Sat, April 12)
- 2u-2d-2d continuation
- 4072 - 4520 is the range of 0.786 and 0.618, respectively.
- 4834 is the 0.5 fibonacci, short term reversal
Daily (Wed, April 9)
- 2u-2u-2d reversal
- potential support is 0.5 fib @ 4834
- RSI at 20 (low) and MACD still red
$ES $4178 target for the bottom?We broke every important level on the downside today, so that leads me to believe that we have farther to fall.
If I had to guess where we'd bottom, I think the most likely level is the 50% retracement of the covid lows which sits at $4178.
Let's see if it gets hit in the coming days or weeks.
ES1! - Monthly - Grand Scheme of ThingsClick Here🖱️ and scroll down👇 for the technicals, and more behind this analysis!!!
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📈Technical/Fundamental/Target Standpoint⬅️
1. Long-Term Perspective: While recent market volatility may induce panic, it's crucial to acknowledge the S&P 500's overarching upward trend. Periods of consolidation are inherent to sustained rallies, allowing the market to build momentum for further advances. However, given prevailing economic uncertainties—including inflation, tariffs, and signs of rally exhaustion—a healthy correction towards Q1-Q2 2024 price levels is plausible.
2. Short- to Medium-Term Outlook: A near-term retest of the 6,000 level is anticipated, followed by a subsequent retracement. In this period of heightened uncertainty, a cautious approach is recommended for bullish positions.
3. Technical Considerations: Current weekly and monthly chart patterns remain in development. In light of this, prioritizing the preservation of existing gains is paramount, a strategy that appears to be underemphasized in current market discussions.
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New tariffs on China push the S&P 500 lowerThe possibility of a trade war with China increased as the US added another layer of tariffs on China bringing the total to 104%. This new uncertainty implies continued downward pressure in the S&P 500. I am looking for a sideways price movement.
ybr 4-7-25wealth building yellow brick road for 4-7-25 collecting $76.50 with $923.50 risk breakeven 419.23 ... 39 days to expire ... roi year 76%
A catch your breath dayAfter the volatility over the last three sessions, the market structure implies an inside day for Tuesday to catch its breath.
ES where?📉 ES1! - S&P 500 E-mini Futures (Daily)
We’re approaching a critical point on the long-term trendline.
🟠 Price has bounced sharply after a steep pullback, reacting right at the dynamic support that’s held since the 2022 lows.
🟢 Two possible scenarios:
Bullish Continuation: support holds, the index regains momentum and pushes back toward the highs.
Bearish Breakdown: trendline breaks, signaling a potential structural shift with downside targets possibly below 4000.
📊 Momentum indicator is in extreme territory → wait for confirmation, don’t anticipate.
4,840 on ES/MES and then an opportunity for bullsim expecting a drop to 4,480 on ES/MES in the morning session. from there i suspect bulls will step in and have a chance to send us up. i will be playing it by ear from there depending on how the bulls respond.
Knowledge is power
Yearly PivotsYou can't make this stuff up. Yearly pivot levels give you a heads up in advance where inventory will be bought and sold. The rest is up to you.
SP500 Weekly Action Areas & Price Targets 07/04/25In this update we review the recent price action in the emini SP500 futures and identify high probability action areas and price targets fort he trading week ahead!
New World Order?Blue line would thrust us into a new paradigm as we are supposed to be in a ''bull cycle'' part of the big cycle established since 1945. According to my analysis, we shouldn't break 4300 for this recurring 5 years bull and 2 years bear cycles that have been happening for decades.
So red line is the most expected outcome if things are to keep happening as usual.
Either way, the FED put will save us all, so bid 4.5k or 2.7k you'll be fine in a 20-year time horizon.
Class A/B RSI Bearish Divergence on SPY Futures?Really posting here to see if anyone would validate this for me but I was looking on the chart and this idea came about. On the weekly chart for ES1!, there seems to be class A or B Bearish Divergence developing on the Weekly timeframe.
Listen, of course we all know SPY trends upwards over time but is this an indicator of a larger sell the market needs to go higher every once in a blue moon? This is guarenteed a macro trend and I probably will have to wait a year for this analysis to play out but hey, at least we're here. (***ponders on how I charted Gamestop at $10 but never traded because of lack of knowledge***) Anyways, this is something I will of course monitor but let me highlight instances in history this has happened. Please feel free to give your input on this analysis!
Jan 1998 thru Apr 2001 (News Driver: Dot-Com Bubble)
Price makes higher highs from Jan 98' thru Mar 00'
From Mar 98' thru Mar 00', the 3 peaks formed on the RSI leading to price establishing a lower high (SMT) on Sep 00'. Fails to make new all-time high
From Sep 00' to Apr 01' price moves down as much as 30% over the next 224d
Jan 2013 thru Feb 2016
Price makes higher highs from Jan 13' thru May 15'
From May 13' thru Jun 14', the 3 peaks formed on the RSI leading to price establishing a lower high (SMT) Jul 15' and a following lower high on Nov 15'
From Jul 15' to Aug 15' (42d) (News Driver: Lagging China Market) price moves down as much as 14% and as much as 14% on the Nov '15 lower high to Jan 16' (78d) (News Driver: Oil Prices)
Current: Jan 24' thru Nov 24'
Price has been making higher highs all year
From Mar 24' thru , the RSI has been making lower highs while price is making higher highs
We are now at a point where price is pushing to go higher but what I would want to see based off of historical data is for price to consolidate or some type of Bearish Turtle Soup forming. If this happens and the RSI returns to Fair Value, we could be in for a sizeable sell of for at least a couple of weeks in the near future.
I will come back to this in the next few months. Happy Trading!
Favoring a bounce Monday off this Weekly SupportFavoring a bounce Monday followed by a steady selloff. If we break 5000, we should see another leg down to 4700.
Combined US Indexes - Lower High Lower Low checked; What next...As previously expected, a lower low has been achieved.
What was not expected was the speed, magnitude and extent of the fallout.
Next up, since it is about 3.5 Standard Deviations out, we can start looking for a consolidation, although there might be slightly more downside and we need a higher low in the expected range within box. Having said that, it is possible to see it overextend downwards briefly.
There is a long term support, Fibonacci downside target zone just below.
So expecting a short term bounce between Monday to Wednesday at the earliest, and following that a consolidation area formation.
US500 to 4346!!!!!!! WARNINGGG!!!!!!Based on my algos, US500 is heading to 4346! Be warned!!! Collapse is actually coming!
S&P moving lower for me We on our way towards 5300/5400 area on this move. The top maybe in for now be vigilant
ES and the Trade War, We are still short here.Current Market Context:
Downtrend Continuation: The ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China have led to significant sell-offs, pushing the ES further down. The recent sharp decline in major indices, including the S&P 500, highlights the market's instability and investor anxiety.
Bearish Sentiment: The market's bearish sentiment is evident, with the Nasdaq entering a bear market and the S&P 500 experiencing its largest weekly decline since 2020.
Criteria for Reversal:
Trend Line Break: A break above the current downtrend line on a higher time frame, such as the 15-minute chart, would be a strong indicator of a potential reversal.
Mitigation of Bearish Fair Value Gap: Observing a mitigation of the bearish fair value gap would suggest that sellers are losing control, paving the way for buyers to step in.
Formation of Bullish Fair Value Gap: The emergence of a bullish fair value gap would indicate a shift in market sentiment, signaling the potential for an uptrend.
Projections for ES Price:
Short-Term Outlook: If the above criteria are met, we could see a reversal in the ES price, with potential targets at key resistance levels. Look for a break above the recent highs on the 15-minute chart to confirm the uptrend.
Medium-Term Outlook: Should the reversal gain momentum, the ES could aim for higher resistance levels, potentially retracing some of the recent losses. Key levels to watch include previous support turned resistance zones.
Long-Term Outlook: In the event of sustained bullish momentum, driven by positive economic indicators or easing trade tensions, the ES could recover further, targeting higher time frame resistance levels.
Strategic Considerations:
Cautious Approach: Given the current volatility, it's crucial to remain cautious and wait for clear confirmation of a trend reversal before entering long positions.
Sector Opportunities: Consider focusing on sectors like utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare, which may offer more stability during this downturn.
ES is waiting for a consolidation.Suppressed by the downward trend line, it has declined. There is still a certain distance to the lower support level. We are waiting for a consolidation range.
It is still a bull market.
ES 3hr Update1) I told everyone not to go long until congress decides to rescind all of the tariffs
2) I said the futures gap might not fill for an extended period of time, but all gaps will fill. This one will not happen until the tariffs are rescinded by congress or the next president, lol.
3) I said like COVID, this drop will probably break a lot of rules. So far it's broken the gap rule, 3hr indicator, double index gap (SPX daily index doesn't usually throw gaps 2 days in a row, and if it does it fills them them within days).
4) I assume it will break daily and weekly indicators as well, so I'm not even gonna post plots.
5) The algos are on, but broken. You can see that the market zig zagged multiple times today as the algos tried to pump the market, but there were way too many retail investors that sold. EOD (end of day) selling indicates people going cash in their 401k. Extremely rare for the market to drop EOD on Fridays like that. Usually there's at least some bounce.
Anyways, you can see 3hr indicators flatlined at the bottom, the same can happen with daily and weekly indicators. We were close to circuit breaker level today. We may hit it next week if congress doesn't do something. That's the unknown factor that kept me from shorting the market over the weekend. If not, we may see yet another futures gap Sunday night and the circuit breaker. Remember we hit it multiple times during COVID bottom.
How do you plan?The challenge in the current S&P 500 futures market is how do you plan in this current post global tariff environment? It is this uncertainty that continues to destabilize the stock market. The smoke is in the air and until this clears sellers are in control.
