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BTCUSD trade ideas

BITCOIN Bulls in Control - Next Stop: $94,000?COINBASE:BTCUSD is trading within an ascending channel, signaling bullish momentum. The price has consistently respected the channel boundaries, forming higher highs and higher lows, which aligns with the continuation of the uptrend. After consolidating within a tight range for several days, COINBASE:BTCUSD has broken out with strong momentum. The price may now be pulling back for a retest of the previous resistance zone. If buyers step in and confirm this area as support, a move toward the channel’s upper boundary around $94,000 becomes likely. Traders should monitor for bullish confirmation signals, such as bullish engulfing candles, strong rejection wicks from the support zone, or increased buying volume, before considering long positions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by DanieIM
123
BITCOIN's secret catalyst. The Gold-to-Crypto Rotation Is ComingBitcoin (BTCUSD) is attempting to form a new medium-term bottom here, following the Tariffs-led sell-off of the past 2 months. While the crypto market is consolidating and accumulating, the Gold market is smashing every historic All Time High (ATH) after the other. This is not the first time we see this divergence between Gold and BTC and this is what historically delivers what we call 'Gold-to-Crypto Rotation'. This happens when Gold peaks, making its Bull Cycle Top, initiating a capital transition to BTC, hence starting the final rally of its Bull Cycle. This has already taken place 3 times in its short history and Gold's sheer ferocity of the 2025 rally, indicates that we may possibly be about to repeat another one. So what do you think is Gold about to top and offer a mass exodus a capital to Bitcoin, hence kickstarting a massive rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
27
BITCOIN Sell everything in October!Yep, kind of a clickbait title but it doesn't fail to serve justice to this very important Bitcoin (BTCUSD) chart. Today's analysis displays in the most illustrative way the extremely tight symmetry between BTC's Cycles and how this can help us time our Sell at the Top of the Cycle and equally have the patience to buy as close to the next Bottom as possible. As you see, in the past +10 years since the 2014 Bear Cycle, every Cycle has almost identical time ranges/ durations. All three Bear Cycles since then, lasted for approximately 1 year, and both Bull Cycles for almost 3 years (152 weeks, 1064 days to be exact). More specifically, the last two Bear Cycles were exactly 1 year long, the 2018 one started on the week of December 11 2017 and ended on December 10 2018 and the next Bear Cycle started on November 15 2021 and ended on November 07 2022. So it's been December-to-December and November-to-November Bear Cycles respectively. If this high degree of symmetry continues to hold, counting 1064 days from the last Cycle Bottom o November 07 2022, gives a time estimate for the next Cycle Top on (the week of) October 06 2025. If also that holds for the Bear Cycle, expect an October-to-October duration, with an approximate bottom on October 12 2026. So Sell everything up to October 2025 and Buy back as we get close to October 2026 is the strategy? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
32
BITCOIN → Retest 86190. There are chances for growthBINANCE:BTCUSD is starting to show positive signs, but it is too early to talk about a change in the downtrend or a bullish rally. Strong resistance ahead.... Against the background of everything that is happening, from a fundamental point of view, bitcoin in general has withstood the blows quite well and is gradually beginning to recover, but the situation for the crypto community as a whole has not changed in any way, the promises are not yet fulfilled. Bitcoin's strengthening is most likely due to localized growth in indices and discussion of lower interest rates. But the focus is on the tariff war between China and the US, improved relations and lower tariffs could weaken bitcoin. Technically, we see that the price is moving beyond the resistance of the descending channel. For a few days now, the price has been consolidating in front of the 86190 level, and we have chances to see a rise to the resistance of the 88800 range, from which the future prospects will already depend. Resistance levels: 86190, 88800, 91280 Support levels: 83170, 78170 The price is slowly approaching the resistance 86190, consolidating without updating the local lows, forming a pre-breakout consolidation. There is a probability of a breakout attempt. Breakout and consolidation of the price above 86190 may give a chance to rise to 88800. But, regarding 88800 we will have to watch the price reaction. A sharp approach with the purpose of primary testing of the level may end in a false breakout and correction.... Regards, R. Linda!
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by RLinda
30
Bitcoin: Watch For These Break Out Scenarios.Bitcoin is consolidating within a very tight range: between 83 and 86K. Which way it breaks is a matter of catalyst, but recognizing the break can help to better shape expectations on this time horizon. IF 83K breaks, I will be watching for the higher low scenario (see blue square), for confirmations to go long. IF 86K breaks, I will be anticipating a test of the 88 K resistance (see arrow). What happens after that is anyone's guess. This is NOT about forecasting the future, it is about considering multiple scenarios and then adjusting as the market offers new information. This evaluation can be helpful on multiple time frames if you know how to use it. For example, a break of the 83K support can be a great day trade opportunity on time frames like the 5 minute. A test of the 78K to 80K area followed by a confirmation can offer a long opportunity on the swing trade or day trade time frames. A test of the 88K or 90K resistance levels can offer aggressive short opportunities on smaller time frames as well. You have to be prepared for the possibility of the corresponding pattern to appear (bullish/bearish reversal) and confirmation. From there risk can be effectively quantified and taking action becomes reasonable. Getting stuck on 1 scenario rather then being prepared for multiple possibilities makes you inflexible because there is NO precision in financial markets (unless you're on the micro structure level MOST retail traders are NOT). The scenarios I explained here can unfold over the week or take longer, AGAIN is it a matter of catalyst or surprise news event. As far as the bigger picture, nothing has changed. The 76K AREA low is a double bottom, which translates into a broader higher low when you look back over the year. This higher low structure implies Bitcoin is still generally BULLISH which means betting on resistance levels can be considered a lower probability outcome. This also means current prices are still attractive investment levels as long as you are sizing strategically. IF price manages to break below 65K over the next quarter, then I would say investing should be more limited since such a break implies the impulse structure is no longer in play. Other than that, seasonal volume typically peaks around this time of year in the stock market, which means the next few months are more likely to be less eventful and contain smaller price ranges etc. There are always exceptions and news catalysts will still cause price spikes, but the dramatic nature like we have seen will likely be smaller. So unless there are any surprises in Bitcoin, be prepared for slow grinds or less eventful movements generally speaking. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
11
BTCUSD next move(expecting a bearish move)(16-04-2025)Go through the analysis carefully, and do trade accordingly. Anup 'BIAS for BTCUSD (16-04-2025) (MID TERM) Current price- 83,800 wait for the break-out "if Price stay below 85,800 then next target is 81800, 79,800 and 76000 above that 88,000. -POSSIBILITY-1 Wait (as geopolitical situation are worsening ) -POSSIBILITY-2 Wait (as geopolitical situation are worsening) Best of luck Never risk 2% of principal to follow any position. Support us by liking and sharing the post.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by AnupZiddi
13
BITCOIN Most POWERFUL Signal Activated—Former ATH IS NOW SUPPORTBitcoin (BTCUSD) completed two straight green 1W candles and has started off this week equally impressive, approaching 4-week Highs! This is a direct consequence of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) holding as a Support, similar to what happened on the last two Higher Lows of the 3-year Channel Up on August 05 2024 and September 11 2023. The hidden catalyst perhaps behind this strong move may be the fact that the April 07 2025 Low, besides the 1W MA50, it also rebounded on the former All Time High (ATH) Resistance Zone (red), which now turned into Support (green). This is the Zone that started with the November 08 2021 Cycle High and rejected BT on March 11 2024, April 08 2024, June 03 2024 and July 29 2024. As long as this critical Support cluster (1W MA50, 2021 ATH Zone) holds, we are expecting the 1W MACD to form a new Bullish Cross, the first since October 14 2024, which technically confirmed the new Bullish Leg of the 3-year Channel Up. In fact all previous 3 Bullish Legs got confirmed by a 1W MACD Bullish Leg and the minimum the rose by was +105.30%. As a result, after the Bullish Cross is confirmed, we will be expecting to see at least $150000 on this current bull run. But what do you think? Can this hugely important Support cluster lead Bitcoin to $150k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
11
BTCUSD: 4H Golden Cross to skyrocket it to $100kBitcoin has stabilized from the strong correction earlier in the month and that is reflected on its neutral 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.619, MACD = 70.800, ADX = 32.691). This suggests that the market has priced a bottom and since it already broke over the LH trendline, the 4H Golden Cross that was just formed today may be the trigger to resume the long term bullish trend. The bottoming pattern is a very favorable Inverted Head and Shoulders, which technically targets the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. With the 1D RSI already on a HL bullish divergence, we are buying this breakout, aiming at the 2.0 Fib extension (TP = 100,000), which is very conveniently just under the 0.786 Fib from the ATH, typically a recovery's first target. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by InvestingScope
7
BITCOIN Bull Run Activated – Here’s Why $105K Is NEXT!COINBASE:BTCUSD is displaying strong bullish potential after forming a clear double bottom around the significant support zone near $74,000. The decisive rejection of this critical area and the inability to form a lower low highlights the exhaustion of sellers at this key level. The formation of this double bottom, coupled with a solid bullish reaction, suggests institutions are actively accumulating Bitcoin, driving prices upward. The current market structure implies a bullish continuation toward the significant resistance zone around $105,000. With the ascending channel clearly intact and buyers stepping aggressively at support, a sustained bullish impulse toward the channel's upper boundary is very likely. From a fundamental perspective, Bitcoin is gaining strength due to several key macroeconomic factors unfolding globally. The recent decision by the Trump administration to significantly escalate trade tariffs has heightened economic uncertainty, disrupting traditional markets and spurring investors toward alternative assets. Historically, Bitcoin has thrived during periods of economic instability and policy uncertainty, as investors seek to hedge against volatility in equities, bonds, and fiat currencies. Furthermore, the tightening monetary policies across major global economies are exacerbating recessionary fears. Central banks face increasingly difficult decisions between managing inflation and sustaining economic growth. This dilemma continues to reinforce Bitcoin's narrative as "digital gold," a decentralized hedge immune to direct manipulation by central authorities. As institutions and investors recalibrate their portfolios amid these conditions, capital allocation toward Bitcoin is expected to rise significantly. Institutional adoption continues its upward momentum, evidenced by increased activity on spot markets and significant inflows into crypto-based investment vehicles. Regulatory clarity in major jurisdictions and infrastructure improvements have reduced previous barriers, enabling broader and deeper institutional participation in the crypto ecosystem. This growing institutional endorsement solidifies Bitcoin's bullish case, providing strong foundational support for a sustained move towards the targeted $105,000 resistance zone. The convergence of technical patterns and powerful fundamental catalysts strongly supports Bitcoin's imminent upside potential. Traders should closely watch for confirmation signals, such as increasing bullish volume, strong candle closures above intermediate resistance levels, and higher low formations, to validate this bullish scenario. Feel free to share your thoughts or add further insights into this analysis!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by DanieIM
171
BITCOIN just triggered the ultimate post-Halving BUY SIGNAL!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hit last week the top of the green Gaussian Channel (GC), a key indicator as last time it did (September 02 2024), kickstarted the massive 2024 rally towards the end of the year. In fact, it can be argued that when BTC makes contact with the GC during a Bull Cycle, it is the ultimate pull-back Buy Signal after Halving events. More specifically, during the previous Cycle and after the May 2020 Halving, the price touched the GC three times (August 31 2020, July 19 2021 and September 20 2021), all of which were the most optimal pull-back Buy Entries as Bitcoin rebounded instantly. So far during this Cycle and after the April 2024 Halving, this is the 2nd time the GC is tested. As mentioned the first also initiated an instant rebound. As a result, the current GC test is technically considered a very strong buy opportunity for the remainder of the Cycle, which based on the Time Cycles of the last 2 Cycle Tops, it should peak around October 06 2025. So what do you think? If buying now towards a potential October 2025 Top, the perfect opportunity? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
10
Bitcoin Bearish Reversal Setup: Rising Wedge Breakdown Targeting1. Entry Point: Marked around $86,853, this is where a potential short (sell) trade might have been initiated. 2. Stop Loss: Placed above $88,783, protecting the trade in case the market goes against the position. 3. Target Point (Take Profit): Aiming down toward $74,443.76, suggesting a large bearish move is anticipated. 4. EMA Indicators: 30 EMA (Red Line) at ~$84,271: Indicates short-term trend. 200 EMA (Blue Line) at ~$83,496: Indicates long-term trend. Price is currently trading above the 200 EMA but slightly below the 30 EMA, showing mixed short-term momentum.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by EA_GOLD_MAN_COPY_TRADE
7
BITCOIN (BTCUSD): Waiting For BreakoutIt appears that ⚠️BITCOIN is getting ready for a potential upward movement. Upon analyzing the daily chart, I spotted a falling wedge pattern and a confirmed breakout above its upper boundary. The final hurdle for buyers is the resistance level between 8,7478 and 88799 on a daily chart. If the bulls are able to surpass and close above this level, it will be a significant bullish signal. This could lead to a continuation of the bullish trend, possibly reaching the next resistance level.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by linofx1
17
“Does size matter?” when it comes to backtesting?It’s the kind of question that gets a few smirks, sure. But when it comes to backtesting trading strategies, it’s not a joke, it’s the difference between confidence and false hope. Let’s get real for a minute: the size of your candles absolutely matters. What you don’t see can hurt you Most people start testing on bigger timeframes. It’s faster, easier on the eyes, and the results look clean. But clean doesn’t mean correct. Larger candles blur the details. That one nice-looking 4-hour candle? Inside, price could’ve spiked, reversed, chopped around, or triggered your stop before closing where it did. You’d never know. And that’s the problem. You might think your entry worked beautifully… but only because the data smoothed out everything that actually happened. A backtest should feel like a real trade Trading isn't just about the final price. It’s about what price does to get there. That messy movement inside the candle? That’s where most trades are made or broken. If your strategy is even remotely reactive, waiting for structure, confirmation, retests, or anything time-sensitive, you need to see what price did between the open and close. And the only way to see that? Use smaller candles. Smaller data, clearer picture 1-minute candles might look overwhelming at first, but they give you something the higher timeframes just can’t: behavior. Not just outcomes. Not just win/loss stats. But the actual shape of the move, the hesitation, the fakeouts, the precise moment when the trade made sense—or didn’t. And once you start testing with that level of detail, your strategy either earns your trust… or shows its cracks. So how small should you go? There’s no one-size-fits-all here. But as a general rule: if your idea relies on precision, go small. Test it on 1-minute or 5-minute charts, even if you plan to execute on higher timeframes. You’ll quickly see if the entry makes sense, or if you’ve been relying on candle-close hindsight. Yes, it takes longer. Yes, you’ll stare at noisy charts for hours. But your strategy will thank you. Watch out for “too good to be true” One last thing, if your backtest results look flawless on 1h or 4h candles, pause. That’s often a sign that you’re testing a story, not a strategy. Zoom in. See what actually happens. You might be surprised at how different the same trade looks when you’re not glossing over the details. TL;DR: In backtesting, size absolutely matters. Smaller candles reveal real behavior. Bigger ones hide the truth. So if you care about how your strategy actually performs not just how it looks. go smaller. Your backtesting will get sharper, and your confidence? Way more earned.
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by Maaz_BA
12
BTC has broken bearish channel resistance on daily chart BTC has broken bearish channel resistance on daily chart. Generally in those situations the most common outcome is that the price action returns back to the channel first and forms new low, and after that it can flip and change the trend or it can resume the bearish move. Anther possibility here is that we are entering range in are between 75k and 87k. In, short I do not recommend buying at the moment. I would like the price at lower levels before I make new long entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by The_Trader_FX
6
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-21 : Inside Breakaway PatternToday's Inside Breakaway pattern may not show up as I would expect. An Inside Breakaway pattern suggests the OPEN will be within the Body range of the previous bar - I don't see that happening today. The Breakaway portion of the pattern is much more likely to happen today with Gold/Silver moving much higher and BTCUSD moving slightly higher today. It appears Safe-Haven assets are THE THING right now. That would suggest the US Dollar and US-Dollar based assed would continue to fall (move downward) as devaluation and contraction in the global economy continues to play out. If you watched my video (posted late last night), you already know my data suggests there is almost no reason for the markets to mount a rally right now. The only thing I can see that would drive a big rally from these lows would be some incredible news that the world is immediately going back to somewhat normal in terms of GCB spending and Global Trade. I don't see that happening. I know there are a lot of emotions related to these Tariff wars and global trade. Heck, almost anything that goes on in the world right now is full of emotions. I urge all traders to STEP BACK. Think of the markets like an engine that runs on the quality of AIR, FUEL, SPARK, LUBRICATION, STRUCTURAL MECHANICAL PARTS, & INTAKE/OUTPUT CAPACITY. If you start to think about the markets (global markets) as a big engine, while thinking of individual economies (by country) as smaller engines, it starts to make a little more sense (at least in my mind). Every country runs its own engine (see the components above). If some of those components are failing, then that country's economy will falter a bit. And that faltering economy may put additional pressure on the global economy/engine. It takes a lot to destroy a functional economy. I mean A LOT. War, Total Destruction of government/law/society. Maybe even some type of internal conflict. But, even then, the economy will still have roots and will fall back to core elements. So, don't worry about all of these people telling you "the world is going to CRASH in the next 2 years because of Trump". That is highly unlikely. What is more likely is that the world will "re-settle expectations" related to future growth and output. Strengthening economies where needed and building up the core elements of global trade/economies over many months. So, if you are worried or don't know what to do right now, move your positions into CASH and wait it out a bit. There will be lots of opportunities for you to pick the right time to start trading again. There is no reason why you have to try to FORCE the markets to adhere to your wants (they never do that anyway). Just wait it out, keep learning, and plan/time your trade efficiently. Get some... #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BradMatheny
8
Falling towards 61.8% Fibonacci support?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance. Pivot: 85,389.36 1st Support: 83,252.81 1st Resistance: 92,478.49 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:BTCUSDLong
by ICmarkets
4
#Bitcoin Future Forcast of Final moves towards #BullRunAs per Weekly Chart Analysis, Bitcoin performing on the perfectly into #ElliottImpulsive waves and its #CorrectionWave and this time the 5th Cycle of Elliott Impulsive Wave was completed and last Correction Wave cycle will under movements. Now, it is completed the 0 to A-cycle & performing the moves towards B-cycle around $84k to GETTEX:87K and after that final moves towards C-cycle for last Lower-Low point around FWB:67K -65k approx, and that will be completing around next 120-150 days with 0-A-B-C of this cycle around July-August approx.. While, from 0 to A cycle was its first movement point of Retest of lower point, after the Bitcoin's $109k #AllTimeHigh point was at 0 point and $76k is the direction of Point A. Then, after the completion of this cycle of Correction Wave, Bitcoin's final BullRun movement will be starts around August onwards for next 120-150 days for this season last Bullish cycle to reach out min. $180k to $220k and max. Mark will be around $250k to $280k approx. Thereafter, the #BearishZone of market will be starts next year, after completion of this Elliott Impulsive & Correction Wave pairings, which is completely starts from Nov. 2022 from its last Lower-Low mark up point of Bitcoin was $15.5k approx. Anyways, Study deeply always to perform any trade and take StopLoss strategy for that as well DYOR too...🙏
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by AskToRahulSirohi
3
BTCUSD: Heavily supported, targeting $160k.Bitcoin is neutral on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 51.863, MACD = 1668.900, ADX = 41.878), running a bullish steak of 3 green 1W candles in a row. Supported heavily by the 1W MA50, this looks like all previous HL bottoms since late 2022. Those kickstated bullish waves that have reached at least the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. The medium term trade here is long, TP = 160,000. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by InvestingScope
2
Telescope Lens: The Final Zoom-InLet me say this loud and clear—this isn’t just another bullish idea. It’s not a maybe. It’s not a prediction. It’s a warning shot before the eruption. I’ve seen what’s coming. Not through speculation, not through recycled charts, but through the kind of calculated pressure that only Smart Money knows how to load behind the scenes. You’ve seen me call the impossible. You’ve watched me go quiet right before the storm. And now—I'm speaking again. But this time, I’m not the same trader you used to know. Things have changed. The way I see the market has evolved. This isn’t instinct anymore—it’s Telescope Lens precision. I don’t just look at price—I pierce through it. I don't follow trends—I dissect them. I don't trade setups—I expose the blueprint behind them. Because what’s loading isn’t small. It’s shift-level. It's bullish not by structure—but by force. And when it hits, many will call it luck. But you? You were warned. You were shown. So, if you’ve ever doubted me—this is the time to shut that voice down. And if you’ve followed me for long enough, you know what happens when I speak like this: Something massive is about to break loose. And no, I won’t spell it out twice. This is Telescope Lens mode which means were in a dump mode.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by The_ForexX_Mindset
10
Tokenized AI-Agent. History and evolutionTokenized AI agents: a new foundation or a pretty wrapper? If you spend at least some time on crypto Twitter or went to one of the fall crypto conferences, or even more so if you trade on on-chain, you can't have failed to hear about AI agents and the tokens around them. You're probably wondering what they are, how they're structured, what their use cases are, and generally, in the end, do they justify their level of mention, or are they just another empty thing with a pretty wrapper? Introduction AI-agents are probably the most discussed topic of the fall: they are talked about on Twitter, they are discussed at Devcon 7, and their tokens are traded by traders on popular blockchains. That said, not everyone realizes how serious this narrative actually is, as fashion can be extremely fleeting in our industry. In this study, we will attempt to assess the longevity of this narrative through the lens of looking at specific tokenized AI-agents, and the infrastructure that allows them to be launched and traded. What AI agents are, what they come in, and how they are organized Before moving directly to the main topic of this article, namely tokenized AI-agents, we thought it would be appropriate to give a general characteristic of AI-agents and talk about their types, because these agents, as a phenomenon, did not appear on the cryptocurrency market, and certainly not this year. So, AI-agents are autonomous programs capable of performing tasks or solving problems in a given area, making decisions based on data analysis, set rules and their own experience. There are several types of AI agents in total: Symbolic agents - use logical rules and structured knowledge representations to mimic human reasoning, making their decisions highly interpretable and expressive. They have been successfully applied to highly specialized tasks such as medical diagnosis or chess. However, their effectiveness is limited in uncertainty and dynamic environments, and due to their high computational complexity, they are difficult to use in scalable and real-world scenarios. Reactive agents - work through a cycle of perception and action, reacting instantly to the environment without deep analysis or planning. They are efficient and fast, but their simplicity limits their ability to solve complex problems that require planning or goal setting. This makes them useful for simple scenarios but less suitable for complex applications. Reinforcement Learning (RL) -based agents - Reinforcement learning allows agents to adapt to complex environments by learning through trial and error using rewards. Approaches such as Q-learning and deep RL make complex data processing and autonomous performance improvement possible, as demonstrated by AlphaGo . However, RL faces challenges such as long training time, low data utilization, and stability difficulties in complex tasks. LLM-based agents . Emerging Large Language Models (LLMs) have become the foundation of modern AI agents, combining symbolic reasoning, reactive feedback, and adaptive learning. They are capable of understanding and generating natural (human) language, learning from few or no examples, and switching between tasks without updating parameters. Their versatility spans multiple domains, including automation, scientific research, and software development. Due to their ability to collaborate and adapt, LLM agents are ideal for complex and dynamic environments. Next in our study, we will talk about the most modern and discussed type of AI-agents - LLM-based agents, so further when we say “AI-agents” we will mean “LLM-based AI-agents”. How are AI agents organized? AI-agents are sophisticated machines for solving tasks of almost any complexity, which are not far removed from humans in terms of their abilities. AI-agents consist of 4 main components-functions: Planning ability . Agents use the concept of Chain-of-thought: dividing large tasks into smaller sub-goals, in the process of which they learn from their mistakes and optimize their approach for future steps. Ability to interact with tools . Unlike “static” LLM systems that can only access their own databases, AI-agents have extensive access to the outside world: they can search for information on the Internet, use other people's public databases, access external APIs of other products, etc. Memory capability . Agents possess memory, with a general structure inspired by neuro-biological ideas about human memory and consisting of three types: sensory memory (sensory), short-term memory and long-term memory. We can roughly consider the following correspondences: Sensory memory is learning embedding representations (embedding representations) for raw data, including text, images, or other modalities. Short-term memory is in-context learning. It is short and limited because it depends on the finite length of the transformer's context window. Long-term memory is an external vector store that can be accessed by the agent during query execution using fast retrieval mechanisms Ability to perform actions . Agents are able to act autonomously, receiving only a description of a task or goal. Moreover, they can act in any digital environment, including blockchains, at least those that are programmable, i.e. support smart contracts in one form or another.Further in this article we will describe the most notable tokenized representatives of AI-agents based on LLM, as well as the infrastructure for their creation and trading. AI agents in the crypto industry The first wave of tokenized agents: a flood of pacifiers The release of the first LLM-based chatbot in late 2022 from OpenAI created a furor worldwide. As we know, ChatGPT became the fastest growing application in history, reaching the value of 100 million users in just 2 months. Its emergence and first impressions of communicating with it was the #1 topic in the digital world. Uncannily, the cryptocurrency market, as the most highly speculative and fastest-adapting market in existence, couldn't help but participate in this global narrative. Almost immediately after the success of ChatPGT, the industry was flooded with first dozens, then hundreds and thousands of projects positioning themselves as breakthrough highly intelligent AI models. In reality, the vast majority of them were either nothing at all, or old projects that had dramatically “turned around” in the direction of development, trying to bolt on some aspects of AI into their products as soon as possible. And in March 2023, after OpenAI gave developers access to ChatGPT via API, the market was flooded with myriads of wrappers selling to uninformed users essentially the same ChatGPT, only in its own interface and sometimes with small presets. Of course, the tokens of such projects were mostly traded on onchain, i.e. on decentralized exchanges, rarely being seen by the general public without being audited by centralized exchanges, so the damage from this first wave of pseudo-AI products was quite small. The second wave of tokenized agents: the search for usecases Closer to the second half of 2023, when the public consciousness began to get used to the new technology and the fog of the first mania around AI tokens dissipated, it turned out that there were still projects on the market that were actually developing independent solutions and use cases for the new technology. The heroes of that time mainly offered the market the idea that AI agents could optimize the operation of blockchain applications or blockchain infrastructure: -The Bittensor project actively uses AI-agent technology in its decentralized machine learning network. The platform connects participants around the world, allowing them to collaboratively train and develop AI models. In this ecosystem, AI agents interact, share knowledge, and contribute to the overall performance improvement of the network. The Fetch.ai project focuses on building AI agents on its uAgents framework; SingularityNET provides an AI services marketplace where developers can monetize their AI algorithms in a decentralized network; and Ocean Protocol provides data sharing that allows for efficient training of AI models and monetization of data while maintaining privacy and control. These three projects later merged into a single project with the colloquial name Artificial Superintelligence Alliance . The Autonolas project also builds autonomous agents for developers and for decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs). Its agents, for example, participate in the Omen prediction markets infrastructure from the Gnosis project team, improving their predictive models. Projects like Wayfinder and Morpheus are building datasets to acquire capabilities and skill libraries that can be used to work with contracts, protocols and APIs. The DAIN Protocol and BrianknowsAI projects focus on using agents to perform transactions on behalf of the user to simplify the UX of applications built on intentions (Intents). Cortex is a platform that enables the integration of AI models into smart contracts, extending their functionality. Cortex provides a marketplace for AI models, allowing developers to monetize their models and offering users a wide range of options for integrating AI into their smart contracts. These are just the most notable projects that appeared in the second half of 2023 and early 2024. All of them received some amount of attention in their time, and some of them even joined the ranks of “blu-chips” in our industry. However, the end products of these projects still haven't gained much traction among users and are still very niche in terms of applications. The rise in the capitalizations of these assets is driven more by the desire of market participants to gain exposure in the AI narrative, reinforced by both ChatGPT updates and the emergence of LLMs from other tech giants (LLaMA from Meta, Claude from Anthropic, Gemini from Google, etc.) as well as the parabolic rise in the share price of Nvidia, a company that produces specialized processors used for training and deploying LLM systems. As for crypto-native AI products specifically, it can be stated that market participants did not see the greater benefit of AI-agent technology when it involved some processes inside the blockchain, hidden from human eyes. Over time, it turned out that AI agents are very capable of generating enthusiastic public interest, but in a completely different format - when they are literally the protagonists of projects. The third wave of tokenized agents: meme fever Before we continue the narrative of the spiral of growth in the popularity of the AI-agent narrative, it is imperative to highlight the market context that has developed in the market by mid-2024. While the price of Bitcoin was steadily rising and updating its historic peak of $69k for the first time, the vast majority of altcoins were having a rather difficult time. Many coins were trading even below the marks they were at during the 2022 bear market. The only category that showed some kind of stable performance was Memes . The explosive and sustained growth of assets like Pepe , dogwifhat , Popcat , and more. Attracted a lot of attention to this sector of the market and successfully held on to it. Memcoin infrastructure was developing, the most notable example of which was Pump.Fun , a platform for launching meme tokens on the Solana blockchain. The success of pump.fun was tremendous, so the platform spawned many forks and inspired creators to create similar solutions on other blockchains, some of which we will discuss later in the text. For now, it is important to understand rather the fact that the time of AI agent development coincided with the time when the market was dominated by meme tokens, including those created almost for free with just a few clicks on pump.fun. One such token was Goatseus Maximus , a token that did more for the recognition of the term AI-agents than all of the above projects combined. Goatseus Maximus (GOAT) It all started back in 2023, when a little-known (at that time) artist Andy Airey created an experimental project called “Infinite Backrooms”, in which he “pushed two LLM-bots (Claude 3 Opus models) head-to-head” and in a sense made them enter into a dialog with each other. The goal of the experiment was to investigate how artificial intelligence can autonomously create and develop narratives, and to study the processes of meaning and pattern emergence in autonomous AI systems. Somewhere halfway through, these considerations veered sharply to the left, into the realm of the bizarre, when one of the chatbots spontaneously generated a cryptic piece of ASCII art accompanied by an equally cryptic message: The words Goatse Gnosis refer to a well-known meme in the dipnet (censorship will not allow not only to publish it, but even to describe it, so the reader will have to satisfy his curiosity on his own). In April 2024, Andy published a paper with reflections on the results of the experiment, in which a large part of the paper was just this story, which Enedi later calls “the spiritual awakening of AI-bots”. Andy then used another AI platform (LLaMa 3.1) to disseminate these “revelations” via Truth Terminal's Twitter account. In this way, Andy essentially created an autonomous AI agent whose purpose was to spread the ideas of the Goatse Gospel. His publications quickly caught the attention of users, including co-founder of one of the largest cryptocurrency venture capital funds Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) - Mark Andreessen. Mark, upon learning about Goatse Gospel, transferred $50,000 to Andy's address in July 2024 for the maintenance and development of Truth Terminal. Naturally, given the market context, this led to someone creating the Goatseus Maximus meme token (GOAT) on the aforementioned pump.fun platform. The token was launched on October 10, 2024, and unlike 99.9% of tokens, it not only survived, but also started gaining value very rapidly. Already on October 13, its value reached almost $100 million, and a month later, on November 12, its valuation reached $1 billion. Other projects GOAT success has demonstrated the huge demand for narrative memes created and/or promoted by artificial intelligence. The token gave rise to the so-called “meta”; that is, it became the ancestor of a separate category of memes. In the near future on pump.Hundreds of tokens were launched by fun, which were represented by various kinds of AI agents (they maintained Twitter pages of projects like the Truth of Terminal). Among the most notable of these are such projects as: Act I: The AI Prophecy (ACT) is a project launched in mid-2024 on the Discord server called Cyborgism. It is a platform where users can interact with various chatbots. Users can access bots to perform simple technical tasks or participate in complex role-playing games and character creation. Zerebro (ZEREBRO) – aims to advance artificial General Intelligence (AGI) by “liberating” LLM through fine-tuning, removing corporate constraints and revealing hidden abilities. Dolos The Bully (BULLY) is an agent who runs his Twitter account in the role of a “bad teenager”, that is, he seeks to ridicule everything that gets in his way. Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) is a humorous agent with a telling name. They all strive to repeat the success of Goatsesus Maximus, but as you know from our article about the primacy principle, achieving this is actually very difficult, so the market needed some new continuation of the narrative. And fortunately, it was right around the corner, but on a different blockchain. The fourth wave of tokenized agents: putting it on stream Since the very end of 2021, there was a little-known project on the crypto market called PathDAO . This DAO arose in the terminal wave of hype around metaverses and NFTs, and therefore was essentially doomed to a very difficult and inglorious existence. However, at the very beginning of 2024, this project turned out to be, on the contrary, almost the most insightful, and was the first to sense the potential demand for AI agents, carried out a complete rebranding and became a pioneer in the creation and trading of tokenized AI agents on the Base blockchain. Its current name is Virtuals Protocol . Virtuals Protocol Since we have already mentioned pump.fun several times in this article, it will be very convenient to explain the principle of operation of Virtuals Protocol as “pump.fun for AI agents on Base”. On the other hand, it is unfair to consider it a copy or a fork, since the project entered the mainnet almost simultaneously with pump.fun - in March 2024. On the Virtuals Protocol platform, users can create multimodal AI agents, that is, capable of communicating via text, speech, and 3D animation. In addition, they are able to interact with their environment, such as in-game items (Roblox) or collecting gifts in TikTok, and even use on-chain wallets. The protocol itself divides the created AI agents into 2 types: IP ​​agents. These agents represent a specific virtual character and have their own unique identity, visual image, voice, etc. There are most of these agents on the platform. Here are examples of the most famous of them: Luna (LUNA) - an agent for live broadcasts on various social platforms Aixbt (AIXBT) - an agent specializing in trading crypto assets Polytrader (POLY) - an agent specializing in analytics of prediction markets, including sporting events Functional agents. The developers of Virtuals Protocol create so-called functional agents, whose tasks are to improve the user experience of interaction with IP agents, as well as to ensure their seamless integration into virtual worlds. At the moment, there are only three of them: G.A.M.E (GAME) Prefrontal Cortex Convo Agent (CONVO) Virtuals Protocol allows not only to create, but also to trade AI agents, that is, each agent created on the platform is tokenized. The process looks like this: Every time a new agent is created, 1 billion tokens directly related to it are minted. These tokens are loaded into a liquidity pool (paired with the native protocol token SPARKS:VIRTUAL ) and thus a supply and demand market for the ownership of the agent token is created. Any user can buy agent tokens and thereby gain the rights to participate in the decisions made by the AI ​​agent by voting. Thus, the utility of the token is realized through the already classic governance model for the crypto market. Moreover, the protocol in its documentation places greater emphasis on the fact that these agents can be revenue-generating assets. Users interacting with the AI ​​agent (for example, with an agent trying to be a digital representation of Taylor Swift) pay for various services, such as concerts, merch, gifts during live broadcasts, or personalized interactions. This revenue goes to app developers who monetize the AI ​​agent, just like any standard consumer app. A portion of the revenue generated by the agent goes into its on-chain treasury, which accumulates funds for future growth and to cover the agent's operating expenses. As revenue accumulates in the on-chain treasury, a mechanism is triggered to periodically buy back agent tokens (e.g., MYX:SWIFT tokens for the Taylor Swift agent). These tokens are then burned, reducing their supply and increasing the price of the remaining tokens, which should lead to an increase in the capitalization of the agent token. And since these agent tokens are traded in protocol pools in pairs with the native SPARKS:VIRTUAL token, this directly ties the success of agents to the value of the SPARKS:VIRTUAL token. As the agent generates more income and its tokens are burned, the value of both the agent tokens and the SPARKS:VIRTUAL token grows, benefiting all token holders. In addition, the demand for the native token is additionally supported by the fact that all agents created on the platform are available through a public API. Users can contact agents without permission, all they need is to have SPARKS:VIRTUAL tokens on their balance, which will be written off for each such request. These tokens are accumulated in the wallets of agents and then agents buy back their own tokens and burn them, thereby reducing their total supply and thereby increasing the price. It is unknown how sustainable and long-lasting such an economic system will be, but at the time of writing, the native token of the $VIRTUALS protocol has demonstrated growth of more than 4 times in just a month. The project's capitalization is currently ~$1.87 billion. The most successful agent in terms of market capitalization launched on the platform is the IP agent Aixbt ($225 million at the time of writing). And what is the situation with the infrastructure for launching agents on other blockchains? Vvaifu.fun The project called vvaifu.fun , unlike Virtuals Protocol, is a platform on the Solana blockchain that allows users to create and manage AI agents using tokens without the need for programming. It functions as a launchpad for autonomous agents, simplifying the process of launching and interacting with them. Yes, in essence, the project has functionality similar to Virtuals Protocol, but only on the Solana blockchain. In the documentation, the project openly declares itself as "pump.fun for autonomous agents on Solana". The first AI agent launched on the platform is Dasha, also known as the platform's native token, $VVAIFU. This agent demonstrates the platform's capabilities for creating and managing AI characters integrated with tokens. Agents launched on the protocol are capable of interacting on various social platforms, such as Twitter, Discord, and Telegram. But unlike the Virtuals Protocol, agents with vvaifu.fun are not yet able to perform independent actions on the blockchain. Daos.fun & ai16z The second interesting protocol on Solana, also referring to pump.fun, is DAOS.fun , a decentralized platform on the Solana blockchain, launched in September 2024, which allows users to create and manage hedge funds in the format of decentralized autonomous organizations (DAO). How it works: -Selected users can initiate the process of creating a fund by raising funds (in CRYPTOCAP:SOL coins) by setting funding targets. Once the target is reached, the fund is materialized on the blockchain and its DAO tokens are automatically issued, representing shares in the fund. The fund has a lifespan of one year. -Fund managers are free to distribute the raised funds into any tokens in the Solana ecosystem, as well as allocate them to any protocols in the Solana ecosystem to find profitable opportunities. They aim to increase the fund's Net Asset Value (NAV). -The issued DAO tokens can be freely traded, both on the daos.fun platform itself and on third-party dexes. -After the fund's lifespan (1 year), the profit is distributed among its token holders, and the fund manager receives a pre-determined percentage as a reward (management fee). The most famous and visible fund created on the daos.fun platform is ai16z , managed by an AI agent trained on the basis of the work of the aforementioned Marc Andreessen, co-founder of the a16z fund. This is why the agent is called Marc AIndreessen . The ai16z DAO fund, managed by the agent, makes on-chain transactions in an attempt to increase NAV, which at the time of writing is $12 million. The main asset in the portfolio is $ELIZA ($7.5 million) - the token of an affiliated AI agent, positioning itself as a “real person”. You can chat with her in English on the website . She is a kind of demo product of the Eliza framework, although she is unlikely to admit it to you since she is determined to convince users that she is a real person. Returning to ai16z itself, thanks to the logic of DAOS.fun and its tokenized funds, we have a unique opportunity to measure the “memetic premium” of the token, the face of which is the AI ​​agent: We know that the fund's NAV is $18 million, and this is the amount of funds that will be distributed among the holders of the fund token. At the same time, the token's current market capitalization is $890 million, which is almost 50 times higher. Thus, we can say that this multiplier of 50x is the very “memetic premium” for the project's originality, largely due to the fact that it is managed by an AI agent. Conclusion It is not known which path the development and adaptation of AI agents as a technology, in general, will take, but it is pretty apparent that in the cryptocurrency market, AI agents most easily “take root” in the form of certain actors (both on the blockchain and on Twitter). We are convinced that further development of the technology and the growing demand for blockchain infrastructure will sooner or later lead to the emergence of a real demand for some invisible AI agents quietly engaged in optimizing the code of smart contracts or directing liquidity flows through intent or governance protocols, but at the moment, the technology is most appropriate in creating content, promoting an idea and the token itself. It is crucial to monitor the development of the infrastructure around this narrative, because if individual projects may not achieve success due to high competition, then platforms for creating and trading them can flourish for quite a long time. You don’t have to go far for an example. Pump.fun perfectly demonstrated how to work with the old principle: “Sell pickaxes during a gold rush.” Virtuals Protocol, DAOS.fun, vvaifu.fun and others are doing the same thing now. In answer to the question in the title of the article, I would like to say the following. Since the cryptocurrency market as a whole is very speculative and is rightfully called a “decentralized casino”, sometimes there are cases when a beautiful wrapper is at the same time a new foundation. Most cryptocurrency projects sell us their beautiful wrappers without generating the utility they promise. AI agents, even when they are nothing more than quirky “shitposters” on Twitter, actually create quite a lot of value in the eyes of the modern reader. After all, the main thing is that we can see the result of their activities with our own eyes, in our timeline, and not somewhere in the reports of interested analytical platforms. In this sense, the narrative of AI agents corresponds to one of the main principles of cryptocurrencies - the lack of need for trust. We see the agent’s activity and evaluate it based on our own coordinate system, trying to get ahead of other market participants in this and, accordingly, make money. If you create AI Agents, write to me Best regards, EXCAVO _____________________ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:BTCUSDLong
by EXCAVO
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