USD:
1. Fitch: Tariffs significantly increase the risk of a US recession and limit the Fed's ability to cut interest rates further.
2. Fed-Daly: Policy is in a very good state and is moderately restrictive. We can be cautious in policy; Goolsby: Tariffs far exceeding expectations pose inflation risks and worry about returning to the past difficulties.
Euro:
1. The market fully prices in a 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB in April.
2. UBS Global Research: Lowered the eurozone GDP forecast for 2025 to 0.5%, from a previous forecast of 0.9%.
3. German Finance Minister: Trade conflicts increase the risk of a recession in Germany.
4. ECB Governing Council member Escriva: US tariffs will have an impact on economic activity in Spain and other countries, and I don't want to talk about recession for the time being.
Pound:
1. Traders bet on a 50 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England in May.
Yen:
1. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: We have been raising interest rates so far because the view of maintaining low interest rates for a long time may lead to overheating of the economy as the economy and prices recover, forcing us to raise interest rates quickly in the future. If the economy improves as expected, interest rates will continue to rise.