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BTCUSDT.P BTCUSD Bullish divergence signal appeared. I've opened long with small lot and if Tokyo with Hong Kong goes deeper I will buy more
Snapshot

yea OK bro i'm sure "The Market" would've stopped Anakin from joining the dark side come on he needed a father not the market

BTCUSD
What did I say? It will bounce back up.
A lot of people made money

BTCUSD BTCUSDT Here's a couple of possibilities for how this cycle could wind down, I'm treating the "end" of the cycle as the significant cycle lows that tend to print four years apart.

Interestingly enough the orange one is the hardest one to justify, a slow bleed out from here until then, although it can still be the case.

The green scenario is entirely possible, but it most likely relies on accelerated loosening of monetary policy beginning in July, as well as a run up to a double top at 110k right before continuation of tariffs, which seems like a stretch now but doesn't have to be.

Personally I think that the yellow bar pattern is the most likely, just based off the few cyclical "rules" that BTC hasn't historically broken that the others would borderline break.

It does invalidate my own base case, but I'll keep it in mind in the case that my current base case is invalidated, but the yellow bar pattern isn't.

Just a brutally boring range between here & the old ATH, a reasonable course embodying the uncertainty reflected so far this year.

It'd surprise me if BTC printed a new ATH and let everyone catch the move from the low.
It needs to decimate sentiment, it needs there to be near no one left, the time BTC starts running but ur favourite shitcoin doesn't - it might be time to take it seriously.

The issue I have with this one though is the sheer amount of consolidation it requires only to be absolutely sliced through on the way back down.

These aren't "exacts" or at all how I'd expect things to play out, it's the limitations and extremes of each scenario in combination with time similarities that matters. These are not the only three scenarios I'm looking at, they're literally just copy and pastes of previous bar patterns.

I think it's important to mark and explore as many scenarios as you can, if one starts aligning more and more - give it more attention until it deviates.

The only thing I'd really expect to remain accurate is a significant cycle low being printed around Q4 2026.

There's so much time to either bleed out or fuck around getting there.
Snapshot



BTCUSD i miss the guy who was always saying "i smell poop" when btc was going down



BTCUSD Even I thought it was bullish earlier. See? That's just what happens when you try to go long on this trash. Diapers and tissues everywhere.