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E-mini S&P 500 Futures (Mar 2027)

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ESH2027 trade ideas

How to Choose Chart Types in TradingViewThis tutorial covers the 21 chart types available in TradingView, explaining what each one is, how to read it, as well as the advantages and drawbacks. Learn more about trading futures with Optimus Futures using the TradingView platform here: www.optimusfutures.com Disclaimer: There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary. This video represents the opinion of Optimus Futures and is intended for educational purposes only. Chart interpretations are presented solely to illustrate objective technical concepts and should not be viewed as predictive of future market behavior. In our opinion, charts are analytical tools—not forecasting instruments. Market conditions are constantly evolving, and all trading decisions should be made independently, with careful consideration of individual risk tolerance and financial objectives.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by OptimusFutures
4
Understanding VWAP In TradingWhat is VWAP? VWAP is a price benchmark that gives more importance to prices where higher trading volume occurs. Unlike simple moving averages, which treat each price point equally, VWAP provides a volume-weighted perspective, making it more representative of market activity. Traders use VWAP to gauge market trends, confirm trade entries and exits, and measure the quality of executions relative to the market's liquidity. How Institutional Traders Use VWAP Large financial institutions and mutual funds execute large orders over time to minimize their market impact. VWAP helps them: Achieve better execution by ensuring their orders are filled at a price close to the session's average. Reduce market impact by avoiding aggressive buying or selling at extreme price points. Gauge liquidity and time their orders efficiently. Role of VWAP in Algorithmic Trading VWAP is integral to algorithmic trading strategies that automate order execution. Algorithms use VWAP in: VWAP Trading Strategies: Algorithms execute orders in line with VWAP to avoid moving the market. Mean Reversion Trading: Traders look for deviations from VWAP, buying when the price is below and selling when it is above. Liquidity-Based Order Execution: Algorithms track VWAP to execute trades more efficiently, particularly in high-frequency trading (HFT). Why VWAP is a Critical Benchmark for Intraday Traders For short-term traders, VWAP provides key insights into market behavior: Trend Confirmation: If the price is above VWAP, it indicates bullish sentiment; below VWAP suggests bearish conditions. Entry and Exit Points: Traders use VWAP as support/resistance for trade decisions. Institutional Footprint: Retail traders track VWAP to understand where large orders might be executing. Since VWAP resets daily, it remains a highly relevant indicator for gauging intraday momentum and trend strength. Calculation Where: Price = (High + Low + Close) / 3 (Typical Price for each period) Volume = The total number of shares/contracts traded in the period Understanding How VWAP is Calculated: Calculate the Typical Price (TP): TP=High+Low+Close/3 Multiply TP by Volume for each time period to get the Cumulative Price-Volume product. Sum the Price-Volume values cumulatively throughout the day. Divide by the cumulative volume up to that time. Since VWAP is cumulative from the market open, it resets at the start of each trading day. Difference Between VWAP and Moving Averages VWAP Volume-weighted Resets daily Determines fair value in a session Reacts to volume spikes Moving Averages (SMA/EMA) Equal-weighted (SMA) or Exponentially weighted (EMA) Continuous across multiple sessions Identifies overall trend direction Reacts to price changes How to Interpret VWAP When the price is above VWAP: It suggests that the market is in an uptrend, and VWAP may act as support if the price retraces. When the price is below VWAP: It signals a downtrend, and VWAP may act as resistance if the price attempts to rise. Reclaiming VWAP: If the price moves below VWAP but then breaks back above it, this could signal a bullish reversal. The opposite is true for a bearish scenario. VWAP and Market Trend Identification Uptrend: If the price remains consistently above VWAP and VWAP itself is sloping upward, the market is in an uptrend. Downtrend: If the price stays below VWAP and VWAP is sloping downward, the market is in a downtrend. Sideways Market: If the price oscillates around VWAP and VWAP remains flat, the market is range-bound. VWAP Standard Deviations (Bands) and Their Significance First Standard Deviation (VWAP ±1σ) Represents a normal fluctuation around VWAP. Prices bouncing within this range indicate balanced market activity. Second Standard Deviation (VWAP ±2σ) Suggests stronger price movement. A move beyond this level may indicate an overbought (above VWAP) or oversold (below VWAP) condition. Third Standard Deviation (VWAP ±3σ) Extreme price movement; rarely sustained. A reversion back toward VWAP is highly likely. Misinterpreting VWAP Signals Many traders assume that VWAP alone dictates market direction. However, simply being above or below VWAP does not automatically mean the market is bullish or bearish. Market structure, momentum, and external factors such as news events or institutional order flows must also be considered. How to Avoid It? Look for Confirmation: Use VWAP in combination with price action and other indicators, such as volume, market structure, and momentum oscillators (e.g., RSI or MACD). Check the Trend of VWAP: If VWAP is sloping upward and price is above it, this signals strength. Conversely, a downward-sloping VWAP with price below it indicates weakness. Observe Price Interaction with VWAP: If the price consistently bounces off VWAP and continues in the trend direction, it confirms its role as dynamic support or resistance. If the price frequently crosses VWAP back and forth without clear direction, it signals a choppy, range-bound market. Strategies VWAP Bounce If the price pulls back to VWAP and holds, traders may look for a long entry (in an uptrend) or a short entry (in a downtrend). Stop-loss orders are often placed slightly beyond VWAP in case of a trend reversal. VWAP Breakout If the price consolidates near VWAP and then breaks out strongly, traders may enter in the direction of the breakout. A sustained break above VWAP signals strength, while a break below VWAP signals weakness. VWAP as a Reversion Point Traders monitor price deviations from VWAP. If the price moves too far from VWAP, a reversion trade back toward VWAP may be expected. Key Takeaways VWAP Represents Fair Value – It calculates the average price of a security, weighted by volume, giving traders insight into where most of the trading activity has occurred. Intraday Benchmark – VWAP resets daily and is primarily used by intraday traders and institutions to assess whether prices are trading at a premium or discount. Support and Resistance Tool – VWAP often acts as dynamic support in uptrends and resistance in downtrends, helping traders make entry and exit decisions. Institutional Trading Guide – Large institutions use VWAP to execute orders efficiently, minimizing market impact and ensuring better fills. VWAP vs. Moving Averages – Unlike moving averages, which continue across multiple sessions, VWAP is cumulative from the market open and resets each day. Trend Confirmation – Price above a rising VWAP signals a strong uptrend, while price below a declining VWAP suggests a downtrend. Avoid Over-Reliance – While useful, VWAP should be combined with volume analysis, price action, and other indicators to avoid false signals. VWAP Bands for Overbought/Oversold Levels – Standard deviation bands around VWAP can help identify price extremes and potential mean reversion setups. VWAP is more than just an average—it's the heartbeat of market sentiment, revealing where true liquidity and fair value align. Stay sharp, stay ahead, and let’s make those moves. Until next time, happy trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by CandelaCharts
3
Mean Reversion + Alternative Long Set-Up MES🔁 MES Mean Reversion Setup – Fade the Gamma Pin • Trend Bias: Neutral-to-Bearish • Entry Zone: $6,012–$6,016 • Stop-Loss: $6,020 • TP1 / TP2: $5,998 / $5,985 • R:R Ratio: ~1:2 • Confidence Score: 7.5/10 • Reasoning: Price is stalling inside top of Fib zone and SpotGamma’s gamma ceiling. Vol is crushed and mean reversion dominates without fresh upside catalyst. Clean rejection of 6,012 area intraday offers high-conviction fade down to VWAP zones and liquidity pools under 6,000. ⚠️ Alternative Long Setup – Only on Break + Hold of 6,020 • Trend Bias: Bullish breakout continuation • Entry Zone: $6,022–$6,025 • Stop-Loss: $6,015 • TP1 / TP2: $6,050 / $6,075 • R:R Ratio: ~1.5:1 • Confidence Score: 6.5/10 • Reasoning: Would signal breach of gamma wall (unusual without major news). Requires follow-through volume and tape support from HIRO or strong opening drive. 🧠 Key Notes Going Into the Week: SPX pinned at 6,000 = no trend yet, just controlled chop. JPM 5,905 call (June 30 expiry) still anchoring downside gamma. If MES > 6,012 holds on volume, prepare for potential chase. Next macro catalyst: Wednesday’s CPI (6/11). Until then, expect low realized vol and grind behavior.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ManosDeOro415
1
June 5 SPX/ES Trade OpportunitiesThis is one of those rare times where ES time-traveled 36 hours and went exactly no where. A lot of people lost money yesterday trading this channel. We were the ones who won the day. And that’s what this is about. My job isn’t to trade because the market is open. It’s to trade a system. I’m thankful for days like yesterday. Why? Because, sometimes we need to be reminded why we have rules. Runners are active from 5860 and 5870. This is a big part of the picture here. When I look above, I we’re at the channel top and we major major negative divergence into the 6008 reclaim. Pushing through this without having some sort of pullback would be a major feat of the bulls. Our job is to stack odds and take Grade A+ opportuntities. Long time readers of ESDaily know the unhappiest bull comes after a move like yesterday as far as building new opportunities. Yes we can continue, but buying just the first level pullbacks here contains additional inherent risk. 📈1st Opportunity - LTB 5944 - 5935(D). At 8:30AM yesterday, this was the only consolidation of the day and you can see an explosive move from this area. If price retraces here, and the following conditions are met, we have a Grade A+ setup. A failed breakdown of 5956 would have to occur for us to enter into this trade. I want a fleet movement under 5956 and into the demand zone. If RSI is above 40 I will add to my runners and bid the zone direct. But, due to the 10 point range, I’ll be doing less than full size. One could wait for price to come into the level and do a confirmation trade, or you could take the 5956 FBD as price leaves the level. I will not be taking the 5956 failed breakdown unless we hit that demand. If I add at the demand zone, I may add more after 5957 is reclaimed. That’s not my focus though. 5944-5935 is. 📈2nd Opportunity - LTB 5924 - 5917. This is only to be taken if 5935 Demand is broken. And we would need to proceed with caution as 5944 is a key demand. We can look to add on a pullback into this 15 min RBR created from 5-6AM Tuesday June 3rd. This is the bottom of the formation that launched yesterday’s rally. An RSI that is above 40 when we re-enter into the level is required. If we bounce off 5944 weakly and rush into 5924, we’ll likely have divergence in place. If we’re below 40 but have divergence, I would look to do a confirmation trade. One where we come into 5924, show signs of stalling, reverse, and I’ll take it on the move out. 📈3rd Opportunity - FBD 5911. Tuesday’s low and a critical area for bulls to hold. Taking out yesterday’s low would evaporate the gains from yesterday. I’d be willing to look at this so long as price doesn’t breach 5898, accept it as a low, reverse, reclaim. Beneath that we run into a very bad area for bulls. Sunday and Monday “wickiness” and chop provides literally no demand zones. The opportunities beneath are spotty at best and have been used more than twice now. I will not be engaging in a long if we fall below 5898 today early in the session. Not until 5867 📈4th Opportunity - FBD - 5853 . A break of yesterday’s low after the rally we got will bring a lot of attention. It’s not fresh - the 5872-5867 (CRA). We used this same general area on Friday and the structure developed Monday overnight and retested Tuesday May 27th. But it’s something I’m going to look at. If we flush 5867 we’ll probably flush hard and look at Friday’s low the 5853. If we come down and form reversal, show acceptance above 5843 and reclaim, we can look to buy. This isn’t a wick down and buy as it rallies. This is a wick down, structure build (maybe just below/at the level) and second bottom with a higher low, and then a series of bullish candles. That’s a confirmed reclaim. 5843 would be near the low I’d like to see on a flush. If 5843 goes, there’s a lot of room underneath 📈5th Opportunity - 5998 LTB only after 6008 is reclaimed. I’d like to see price breakout above the 5998 intraday channel top, where we will likely see a flurry of buying into 6008. I will wait for price to make a new high (by a few points). Watch volume pick up as chasers chase a few points, and get caught. Volatility will spike as we turn, and we’ll get a quick movement back to the breakout point. T1 would be a few points below the new high. The stop will be dependent on the move back in, but not more than 1:1. The 1 hr negative divergence is clear. So I’ll be sizing down, adding a 30% position to my runners. This happens time and time again. If it happens again and ES doesn’t come back down, I want to be ready to add on a breakout. I won’t be buying in subpar zones beneath current price and I won’t be buying above when my risk/reward rules aren’t met.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by esdailytrader
2
S&P500: Approaching the 88.70% RetracementThe S&P 500 continued its climb, nearing the 88.70% Fibonacci retracement level. The top of magenta wave (B) has not yet been confirmed, so under the primary scenario, we continue to expect further upside into the magenta Target Zone between 5,880 and 6,166. Once that zone is reached, wave (C) is expected to take over and drive the index into the next Target Zone — the green zone between 4,988 and 4,763. Short positions initiated within the upper zone remain viable and can be protected with a stop 1% above the top of the range. The alternative scenario — assigned a 40% probability — assumes the rally will continue directly into wave alt.(III) in blue, with a breakout above the 6,675 resistance. Over the long term, we continue to expect one final impulsive leg higher in blue wave (III) once the broader green wave correction is complete. This should take the S&P 500 well above the 6,166 mark. 📈 Over 190 precise analyses, clear entry points, and defined Target Zones - that's what we do.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by MarketIntel
#ES_F Weekly Prep 06.01 - 06.06.25Last week we have consolidated, built a cost basis under HTF Edge Top and made a push into new HTF Ranges Value on Wednesday after some news, we made it into the Mean of that range but failed to hold before the open trapping Supply in Value. Thursday held under the Edge and by Friday built up enough supply to flush Holiday Cost basis into lower Value where the selling stopped at the Mean and we started covering, being mid day Friday and End of Month we got strong enough covering to take us all the way back into the Edge/into current Intraday Ranges top which is around 930 - 25 Area. Question for this week is, was that a strong bid on Friday which will give us a hold and continued pushes into above VAL over the Edge or was it just a retest of this Edge top from below, momentum traders pushed us out on news and now we are back inside 930 - 770s HTF Range ? Looking at our structure, we had Trend Change on Thursday during RTH Open and for now we have closed Friday in downward correction Trend. This tells us that its possible that we have failed to accept inside new above HTF Range and if that is the case then we could target moves back down towards lower areas of VAH / Mean / VAL and if there will be volume moves under it. For things to change and to see stability + strength out of here we would need to see a good push over 930s which could hold over AND see a move over 941 - 45 area, without that need to be careful with longs into those areas as our Supply and Sellers are around and over us. Things have been slow and moves take a while to set up so Current Intraday Range could act as support and we can see price trade back and forth inside it with Holiday Cost basis providing Support, BUT if we do get through that under VAH then we can see further moves down towards Mean and VAL which has another cost basis there that we can try to fill out and it could hold the price around it, to see any more weakness from there we would need to find ourself under VAL and be able to get into that 800 Balance area, it is new Month and we do have Market Moving Data this week so it could happen. If this will be the case good entry areas for continuation lower could be found around 914 - 10 // 900 - 896 // 869 - 65 // 855 - 51 careful around 824 - 20 and IF we attempt for move into lower Balance could find entries for it at 810 - 06 IF Trend does change and we hold over the Edge OR we hold Current Intraday Range and some of the weekly Data/News will push us over 941 - 45 then we could see moves into above VAL / Mean and would look for Entries around 955 - 59 // 986 - 90 if this will be the case need to be careful with looking for too much continuation over the Mean as there will be selling closer to above VAH we get and especially if we see pushes into/over it as there is more supply above, if move higher happens we would probably look to stay under 630 - 20s and If Holiday Cost Basis holds as Support the could also find long entries at 896 - 900 area after we hold under but need to be careful with looking for big moves and try to grab area to area as market moves and back fills very efficiently lately so watch out for back and forth trading while its moving towards targets.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
S&P – Bearish outlook, correction coming next week?A lot of chatter recently suggests traders don't trust this rally, I can see why. From both a technical and macro perspective, things are beginning to look shaky. The S&P 500 is hovering around the psychological 6000 level, moving in and out with little conviction. The index has already broken its first upward trendline, and while it’s attempting to hold a second, momentum appears to be fading. We’re currently seeing the formation of a rising wedge pattern. More importantly, RSI is diverging from price action, suggesting weakening momentum. While inflation has come down from its peak, monetary policy remains tight. Rates have been high for a while now, and the effects may be surfacing. Hiring appears to be slowing. Initial jobless claims have been ticking up for months. Challenger job cuts just spiked above 200K, a level we haven't seen since COVID or 2008. Interestingly, the recent JOLTS report shows that job openings increased, but quits declined, perhaps suggesting workers are less confident about job-hopping? Despite this, unemployment held steady at 4.2% today. Historically, unemployment tends to lag Challenger job cuts by a few months, so we could be in for a jump in July or August, similar to the pattern we saw last year, which caused a huge correction. From a technical standpoint, I’ve entered a small short position here. Momentum is fading, and the wedge breakdown looks interesting. With that said, with macro uncertainty and the possibility of QE-style stimulus returning if economic data worsens, I’m cautious. We’ve seen markets rally on bad news before, especially in crisis environments, like covid times. The CPI report next week is interesting. If inflation surprises to the upside, the bearish case strengthens. If it cools more than expected, markets might push higher before any real correction. Interesting times going into summer.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by souledoule
Don’t Call the Top Yet! Key Pattern to study in PriceHi Trading Community! We’re still riding the bullish momentum and looking for price to reach our 6008 level. Of course, after seeing the +130 point expansion, you might be tempted to call a top. But I encourage you not to jump to conclusions. Instead, observe the price action carefully and respond to what the market actually presents. In this video, I highlight a key pattern that traders should study over the next few days so be sure to review and study this delivery. P.S. We have high-impact news releasing this Friday, so as always, stay cautious and Let’s keep growing together by studying OneCandleStickAtATime.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by MarketsByLee_
S&P 500: Coiling Tight as Bulls Eye 6000 BreakIf at first you don’t succeed, try, try again. I suspect that’s what S&P 500 bulls are contemplating when it comes to clearing the psychologically important 6000 level in futures—although this time may meet with more success than when last tested in late May. Coiling within an ascending triangle pattern, and with bullish momentum starting to flick higher again, the ducks are starting to line up for a possible topside break. If the price can pierce 6000 and take out the May 29 high, consider establishing longs with a stop beneath 6000 for protection against reversal. Some resistance may be encountered at 6100, although the obvious target for bulls will be to take out the record high set in February. Should the price be unable to clear 6000 and break uptrend support running from the May 23 low, it would favour range trade down to support at 5740. Good luck! DS
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by FOREXcom
ES Trade Idea and Upcoming NFP ReportCME_MINI:ES1! • What has the market done? ES futures are lagging compared to tech heavy index NQ futures. ES futures are still below yearly open. Yearly open has been a strong area of resistance since the rally of April 6th Lows in futures complex. • What is it trying to do? ES futures are in consolidation mode, building value higher. VPOC has shifted higher since the gap up from May 11th open. VPOC and 0.786 fib level provide a base for a continuation higher. • How good of a job is it doing? Markets seem to be slowing its rally. After such a strong rebound, participants are wary of any pull-backs. Although a strong trend higher, consolidation or a pullback is not illogical at these levels. • What is more likely to happen from here? o Scenario 1: Hold steady and NFP provides needed boost for markets to get across yearly open resistance and climb higher. o Scenario 2: A mixed NFP report may point towards further consolidation. Key level 5873 as support on move lower before reverting higher. o Scenario 3: A hawkish NFP report that signals higher for longer rates, may be interpreted by market participants as less monetary stimulus and dwindling rate cut bets for this year. We anticipate a sell-off towards 0.618 fib level in this scenario, moving to the lower edge of micro composite volume profile. In all the above scenarios, there is a clear LIS at yearly open. Other key levels are defined cleanly on the higher time frame. Important thing for traders to note here is to trade what you see and not what you think. Having an alignment between fundamentals and technicals is sound but the markets do what they do, and price moves where it should. Painting narrative to any move may sound fancy but it gets less important at intraday time frames in our opinion. Hence why we view all this considering auction markets and volume profile. Glossary: ES - emini-S&P 500 Futures NQ - emini-NASDAQ 100 Futures VPOC - Volume Point of Control: The most traded price by volume in a given range. Represents acceptance or consensus NFP - Non-Farm Payroll: Released by the US Department of Labor around the 1st Friday of every month. It reports on Unemployment, Productivity and other key metrics. Key economic release LIS - Line In the Sand: A key zone that might tip buyers or sellers to act to cover risk and might change the overall bias of our analysis
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
Tiqgpt signals for today! Starting with the 1D timeframe, the S&P 500 E-mini Futures have shown a progressive upward movement, indicating a strong bullish market structure. The presence of consecutive bullish candles suggests a dominant buying interest, likely from institutional players. This upward trajectory is supported by the formation of a significant Order Block (OB) around the 5,975 level, which has not been revisited, indicating a lack of mitigation and a strong upward drive. Drilling down to the 4H timeframe, we observe a consolidation pattern forming just below the 6,000 level, which acts as a psychological round number and potential liquidity pool. The market has made several attempts to breach this level, suggesting an accumulation of buy orders and potential preparation for a liquidity sweep above this zone. On the 1H chart, the price action has developed a tighter range, oscillating around the 6,004 level. This consolidation near a high indicates a potential inducement zone, where smart money might be trapping retail traders into premature bearish positions before a possible upward expansion. The 15M timeframe shows a recent Break of Structure (BOS) above the previous high at 6,004, confirming a bullish bias in the lower timeframes. This BOS is crucial as it suggests a shift in market structure favoring continued bullish momentum. Finally, the 5M chart provides a granular view of the buying pressure. A sharp upward move followed by a small retracement forms a Fair Value Gap (FVG) around 6,004, which has not been filled, indicating that the price might revisit this area to mitigate the imbalance before continuing upwards. INSTITUTIONAL THESIS: The overarching smart money intent appears to be targeting the liquidity above the 6,000 level, using it as a springboard for further bullish expansion. The setup across multiple timeframes suggests a coordinated effort to induce bearish sentiment near this key psychological level, only to trap those positions and drive the price higher through a liquidity sweep.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Mistermoriarty
Stock market cycles & liquidity, understand it all in 3 minutesLiquidity is a key factor in market finance. Without it, risky assets in the stock market, equities and cryptocurrencies lose their fuel. Over the cycles, one thing has become clear: the direction of financial markets is strongly correlated with that of global liquidity. But liquidity is not a single indicator: it is organized into three complementary layers. Understanding these layers enables us to better anticipate major trends. Level 1 is global monetary liquidity (M2). Level 2 concerns net liquidity within the financial system, and level 3 encompasses overall macro-liquidity, through activity and credit indicators. Together, these three dimensions form the markets' “bloodstream”. The chart below compares the S&P 500 trend with the global money supply M2 Level 1: Global monetary liquidity (global M2) The first stage of the rocket: global M2. This monetary aggregate measures the sum of the money supply (M2) of the major economies - USA, China, Eurozone - converted into US dollars. It includes sight deposits, savings accounts and certain short-term instruments, representing the gross liquidity immediately available in the global economy. This level of liquidity is directly influenced by monetary (key rates, QE/QT), fiscal and wage policies. The evolution of the US dollar plays a crucial role: a strong dollar mechanically reduces global M2 in USD, while a weak dollar increases it. In this respect, Chinese and American dynamics are often divergent, as they are driven by different credit logics (centralized planning on the Chinese side, rate-based adjustment on the US side). But beyond the absolute level, it is above all the momentum of M2, its first derivative (annual variation), that serves as a compass. An uptrend coupled with positive momentum strongly favours risky assets. Conversely, stagnation or a negative divergence between trend and momentum (as at the end of 2021) anticipates a contraction in valuations. Over this cycle, there is even a correlation coefficient of 0.80 between global M2 and Bitcoin, projected 12 weeks into the future: liquidity leads, markets follow. Level 2: Net liquidity of the financial system The second level is more subtle, but just as decisive: net liquidity within the financial system. This is the effective credit capacity, i.e. the funds actually available to irrigate the real economy after withdrawals, excess reserves and regulatory mechanisms. Unlike M2, this measure does not reflect gross liquidity, but rather the liquidity “actionable” by financial institutions. In the United States, this net liquidity depends, among other things, on FED mechanisms such as the reverse repo program (RRP), which temporarily sucks in or releases liquidity, and on the level of banks' excess reserves. Its evolution is strongly linked to the central bank's restrictive or accommodating monetary policy, QE cycles and QT cycles. The correlation of this net liquidity with the S&P 500 and Bitcoin, although slightly lower than that of global M2, remains significant. It acts as a filter for gross liquidity: even if M2 is high, if credit capacity is blocked by excessively high rates or constrained reserves, the impact on markets can be neutralized. Level 3: Global macro liquidity Finally, the third level: global macro liquidity. It includes barometers of economic conditions that directly influence risk perception and investor appetite: PMI indices (manufacturing and services), credit conditions, employment levels, default rates, etc. It is less monetary, more conjunctural. It is less monetary, more cyclical, but its impact is real, as it shapes the context in which financial liquidity is expressed. It is this level that contextualizes the first two: a rising M2 in a deteriorating economic environment (PMI below 50, falling employment) may have a limited effect. Conversely, signs of economic recovery may reinforce the transmission of liquidity to the markets. In this sense, the timing of the FED's rate cuts becomes a key macro catalyst. As long as US policy remains restrictive, M2 will plateau and net liquidity will remain constrained, even if the ECB or PBoC relax their conditions. Conclusion: Global liquidity cannot be summed up in a single indicator. It's an ecosystem structured on three levels: global gross liquidity (M2), effective credit capacity (ECC) and net liquidity. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. 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CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by Swissquote
ES - Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileOn ES , it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 5989. It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated. I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again. Fair Value GAP (FVG) and Volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go short on this trade. Happy trading, Dale
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Trader_Dale
S&P 500 – Projection to the SouthLooking at the market's behavior using the orange median line/fork, one can clearly see how the market reacts when it touches one of the lines. Median lines/forks are not an oracle. They simply project the highest probable path of the price based on a mathematical calculation inherent to the tool. If you follow the rule set, money management, and risk management, you have a wonderful framework that offers a significant advantage in trading the markets. Let’s take a look at the current situation: The orange fork: – Price closes outside the fork (1) – Multiple retests of the L-MLH (textbook behavior) (2) – Break of the 1/4 line, heading toward the 1st warning line (3) Next movement pattern according to the median line framework: – Drop to the white centerline (4) – Retest of the centerline (5) – 1/4 line (6) – Lower median line parallel (7) with a possible retest – Orange centerline of the pendulum fork (8) Wishing everyone a wonderful start to the week.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd