Model PredictionThis setup from the model is projecting a 30 point rise on the asset with at least a 90% probability from current levels.
ES1! trade ideas
ES Morning Update March 14thYesterday was all about 5558 in ES. After a drop to 5512 support, bulls needed to reclaim 5558 for upside. That level was tested twice before a sell-off, but once it cleared at 8:30 PM, buyers stepped in, pushing the market +20 points higher.
As of now:
• 5598, 5615 are the next upside levels as long as 5558 (now weaker) holds
• A break below 5558 opens the door for a drop to 5548, then 5533
Gold, MSFT, AAPL, TSLA & SP500 Daily Trade SetupsIn this update we review the recent price action in Gold, Microsoft, Apple, Tesla and the SP500 and identify the next high probability trading opportunities and price objectives to target. To review today's video analysis click here!
Will ES go more deeper ?The E-mini S&P 500 futures contract ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) exhibited a liquidation profile (Profile A), characterized by two distinct distributions. The subsequent session (Profile B) formed a balanced profile and remained entirely below the lower distribution of Profile A, indicating continued bearish sentiment.
Profile C emerged as a short-covering profile, with its upper boundary testing the high of Profile B by a minimal margin. Both Profile B and C exhibited trading activity around the lower distribution of Profile A without breaching its low. Profiles A, B, and C established a base at the C Line, identified as a longer-term support or demand zone.
Yesterday's session (Profile D) also presented a liquidation profile, briefly trading below the C Line before recovering and maintaining balance around this level. The market demonstrates reluctance for further downside, with lower prices consistently triggering short-covering rallies rather than initiating new selling. Even though Profile D traded lower, it did not exhibit significant selling conviction.
Given the prevailing geopolitical risks, including the ongoing tariff disputes and the unresolved Ukraine-Russia conflict, further liquidation during today's Regular Trading Hours (RTH) remains a possibility.
However, sustained buying interest above the balance of Profile C, driven by short covering and new long positions, would indicate a potential shift in market sentiment towards accumulation on a higher timeframe. The market's behavior during today's RTH session will be crucial in determining the next directional move.
The one fair value gap keeping es from another %10 fallBet she holds to the bearish fair value gap above, there the greatest short ever or the quickest stop of your life.... looking for a bounce here and rejection at red bar of resistance.
UncertaintyThe structure on Thursday in the daily S&P 500 chart reflects the uncertainty the market feels about tariffs and economic results coming out in the United States. It keeps the market on edge and the result is we had a down day on Thursday. Asia is a little firmer and the overall structure implies an inside day as we go into the weekend. This means Friday's behavior would be inside the range of Thursday's range.
Coming closer to a potential target for the shortsWell the grind down continues, Es has slowly been grinding down while giving some nice relief pops off of some measured moves of our Daytrader indicator on the bottom right giving traders a chance to join in the trend.
With no major news tomorrow I anticipate another move down to the next gap range on the top right chart and will be watching the yellow lines I have on the left chart that shows the last untouched retracement ranges from previous sessions.
I am not calling bottom there but I will be watching for a possible reaction to start scaling into longs if the opportunity presents itself, but with little catalyst I will not be slamming the buy button. We also have the contract change next week so we might not see anything exciting until after we transition to the next contract and the dust settles.
Trade well and take profit early, this market is giving lots of opportunities for short term trades that can come against you quickly!
Potential US Stock Market Crash Monday March 17,2025The United States stock market,
as measured by the S+P 500 Stock Index Futures June 2025 Contract (ESM25)
30 Years Of Continuous WEEKLY Chart DATA ( my own proprietary chart )
reveals the stock market could CRASH on Monday March 17,2025
IF todays ES June 2025 Contract Low of 5559.75 is violated Weekly Close on Friday 3/14 !!
Long positions in the stock US stock market should be closely monitored,
or sold outright if this were to occur tomorrow March 14,2025
ES June 25 Contract Last 3/13/25 248 PM 5600.
THE_UNWIND
WOODS OF CONNECTICUT
ES futures trade setup 13/03/'25Hello,
In today's trade analysis, I will review potential setups for this trading day. Since the overall trend is bearish, I favor short positions over long positions.
I have identified two important zones on the 4H timeframe that align well with the 1H timeframe.
4H supply zone: 5,643 - 5,630
4H demand zone: 5,577 - 5,558
We've seen both false breakouts and breakdowns in recent days, indicating choppy market conditions.
My plan is to either go short in the upper 4H supply zone or short a breakdown of the 4H demand zone. For the latter, I'll wait for the candle to close below the zone and set my entry on a retest.
Liquidity CME_MINI:ES1!
looking at the cumulative delta to identify liquidity in consolidation like we are currently in the ES. CD is moving lower as price moves higher. it's been very easy for large limit orders to get filled close to price and hold it slightly high so far.
ES Morning Update march 13thThis week has revolved around one key level in ES: 5568-72, which has been lost and reclaimed four times. At 11:20 PM yesterday, it triggered a long setup from an a textbook failed breakdown, leading to a 65+ point rally—and overnight, the same pattern repeated again.
As of now:
• No change—5568-72 remains weak support
• A 5599 reclaim sets up a move to 5616, 5643+
• If 5568 fails, expect further downside
ES1! Wyckoff ReversalPrice these past days has started consolidation right above a unmitigated 4H ORB from september 2024. Selling pressure seems to be weakening and showing some noticable steps to forming wyckoff re-distribution. waiting for price to purge into the ORB, then moving onto to final confirmation.
ES1! Next 12M price action prediction:
1. santa clause run up into year end into HTF resistance
2. sell of in jan we lose 50DMA and support in green line, but then find support on 200DMAQ and support in red + green line.
3. we run up intil end of may and then lose 200DMA to later on drop 20% down to 200WMA and HTF Support.
4. We then run it up again in 2025 2H and 2026
Sideways move to higherThe structure on Wednesday in the S&P 500 daily chart implies a market that got high enough to find sellers. However the overall structure implies the potential for a sideways to higher move.
Es Potential for some more downside before we start moving upEs has been in a downtrend for a while now with buyers eagerly trying to dig in a foothold for the next leg up.
These are a couple indicators I have created the right screen is a gap filter range that price will revisit and use as support/resistance before moving to the next one. As you can see today ES has retested the upper range again and we are right back down below it so I am watching for some fresh downside before I look to start taking longs.
The right screen also shows a channel we have been in and an Indicator I created that shows the average retracement ranges of the day and then draws boxes that price will partially or fully mitigate and the boxes will reflect the color (yellow for partial and red for full mitigation).
As you can see the trend has been to clean up some of the most recent ones to make another step down, I will be watching for a reaction if we get down there to start assuming longs. Or we might blast right out of this with news but with todays reaction Im fully expecting some more directional moves down first.
Maybe it's not as bad as we think....I have seen some very goofy things take place in the market, but in 40 years of trading this is really a very special time of misplaced faith in the old style charting, but I can't help but want to buy here. People were literally throwing away their stocks like last Sunday's paper. My world as perceived through e-mini's say's: caution is warranted on the long side, but selling here is just too gut wrenching. Buying into this mess and expecting it's going to turn around tomorrow might be a bit bold, but trading here with a view towards the long side makes sense. A .382 retracement brings us back to the 5716 area and a .618 back to 5820 plus or minus a few ticks.
We will be rolling from March into June contracts soon, and that is always a jolly time and may even provide some upside momentum.
ES FUTURES LEVELS TO WATCH AND QUICK LOOKLevels to watch on ES futures Quick Look. keep a eye out for more action on these areas
2025 Q1 + 6M/12M ranges 8h interim cycling bullish.
s1 @ 5554
r1 @ 5592
macro r1 @ 5738
sustain above and macro rotation pushes higher, r2 @ 5921.
its 8 days into the trading month and we've spent the entire 1M atr with extension to the downside.
8H / 1D interim rotation is bullish and no hh on di- since feb 27, despite almost a 500pt drop.
Extended boxes for 6M / 12M, and major levels noted for annual sup/res also marked.
In the last 20+ years, 12M candles closing red still printed an avg 4.74% H above the open; and after hitting lows, closed the year with an 9.97% rebound.
The rotation is a feature not a flaw.
Accept that it's fixed, and you'll see that nothing is broken.
You'll know the signal when you see it.
Appreciate the risk.
Recap ES Futures Weekly PlanCME_MINI:ES1!
In this TradingView blog, we’ll recap the price action and share our insights from the weekly trade plan posted on March 3rd, 2025.
Our Scenario 3 highlighted mounting risks, with weaker economic data reigniting the stagflation theme. While the price action largely aligned with our expectations, it extended further downward than anticipated. Economic data was mixed: PMIs exceeded expectations, while the NFP report came in lower than forecasted. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%, and average hourly earnings data showed mixed results. The Month-over-Month figures were in line with expectations, but Year-over-Year average hourly earnings came in slightly lower at 4% versus the consensus of 4.1%.
In addition, headline news and tariff uncertainties dampened sentiment across the board.
Our approach primarily involves volume profiling and market auction theory to map out price levels and set expectations based on the prevailing market context at the start of each week. However, as fundamentals, macroeconomic factors, geopolitics, and headline news gain increasing significance and impact the market, we draw on our accumulated experience to incorporate these elements into our analysis.
When market regimes shift, technical analysis alone often proves insufficient. A strong understanding of fundamentals, macroeconomic conditions, and geopolitics is crucial to staying aligned with what’s actually happening in the markets, rather than relying on your personal thoughts and assumptions.
Given the myriad factors influencing the economy and markets, traders should recognize that each approach has its merits. We recommend sticking with the strategy that works best for you.
Still bearish in ES/SPYRejection from Daily SIBI. Intraday trades taken and 90% positions off. I still anticipate price to trade to the target. Leaving runner only small position and no risk on the trade.
S&P 500 E-mini Futures | 15M | SCALPING TIME | BUYHey There My Friend ; 🫡
SIGNAL ALERT
BUY S&P 500 / 5,586,00 - 5,567,25
🟢TP1: 5,605,50
🟢TP2: 5,646,25
🟢TP3: 5,723,75
🔴SL: 5,514,50
RISK REWARD - 3,00
Thanks to everyone who supports my analysis with likes.💙💙💙
ES Morning Update March 12thSince I prioritize Failed Breakdowns, my job is pretty simple—do absolutely nothing until we get one. This is how you keep an incredibly high wind rate, while easily scaling your accounts. Yesterday, the 5569-72 reclaim triggered the long setup, leading to a 70+ point rally to the 5608 target, where we’re still holding.
As of now:
• 5599, 5569-72 must hold through CPI volatility to keep 5645, 5668, and 5703 in play
• A failure below could open up more downside
