ES 3hr UpdateNo idea what this market is doing, it wants the gap fill but can't figure out a way to get there, lol. It did fill the gap up from last night though.
Indicators are neutral, Powell speaks Wed, ECB meeting premarket Thu so I dumped my gold premarket today. Basically a wash trade, I wish I had figured out what was going on sooner. If ECB cuts rates, you'll see the EUro drop, which could cause a drop in gold in US dollars. Also, Euro gapped up last night which scared me, because that gap also needs to fill.
All cash, can't keep up with the news while I'm working. I saw automakers got an exemption though, lol.
We'll see a gap up Thu if ECB cuts rates, so staying cash, not shorting anything. I gotta fly out to WA to get my house ready for sale next week, might just take a break unless I see something.
WIth Trump in office, teh market is bound to go oversold again, might just wait until I sell my house before resuming trading. We'll see.
MESM2019 trade ideas
S&P 500 E-mini Futures – Bearish Setup Ahead?Price recently tapped into a key resistance zone where an imbalance was filled by a wick, showing signs of potential exhaustion. We could see a liquidity grab above before a significant move down toward the 5,150 level. Watch for a reaction in the highlighted resistance area – this could be the beginning of a bearish reversal. Major support sits lower, where a larger move might find footing.
🔹 Resistance tested
🔹 Imbalance filled
🔹 Bearish reaction anticipated
🔹 Targeting the 5,150 zone
Let me know your thoughts – do you see the same setup?
S&P 500 and Bitcoin are bearish. Big dump incoming.We bounced back thanks to Trump's bullish announcements but we're right back up at major resistance and we're moving sideways. With major resistance, you want to see price cut straight through like a laser. You don't want to see price hesitating. A bearish geometric pattern leading up to resistance almost always rejects and retests the lows.
SPY Futures April 2025Trump imposes new tariffs on imports from China, investors panic, and the market chops. A good level to look at on SPY Futures for the next couple weeks is 5528.00. I believe a break upwards can give bullish investors some confidence , while a rejection could bring even more downside. If we break upwards, possibly revisiting 5840.00, we're going to have to see if we can break that level and get back to the all time high. If we reject and price falls, the level to look at is 4833.00. A break of that support could mean a lot more downside in the coming months. But we're going to have to be patient allow Trump vs China to unfold.
Friday Closeout | TA & Macro Recap + ES1! Game Plan📈 Chart Overview
Current Price: 5,312.75
Daily Candle: Slight green candle, suggesting an attempt at recovery or a pause in the recent downtrend.
📈 Price Action & Technical Analysis
SMA 9 (thin white): ~5,309.92 – Hugging current price, curling upward.
SMA 50 (light blue) : ~5,759.54 – Above current price; Below SMA 200; indicating bearish pressure. (Death Cross)
SMA 200 (thick cyan): ~5,890.90 – Above current price; Curling downward; longer-term downtrend signal.
Structure: After a heavy decline in early April, price bounced on changing tariff paradigm, but is stalled short of the Prior Swing Support.
This could be: A bear flag forming. Or. A basing pattern for a short-term reversal.
📈 RSI (14 Close)
Current: 41.48 (37.49 MA)
Interpretation: Below neutral (50), momentum is weak. A move back above 50 would be bullish. A turndown could indicate further weakness.
Recent Bounce: RSI bounced from ~21, indicating the recent lows were oversold. Currently appears to be consolidating.
📈 MACD (12, 26, 9)
MACD Line: -132.13
Signal Line: -125.86
Histogram: +6.27 and rising
Interpretation:
MACD is negative (bearish territory), but the histogram flipped positive, showing momentum may be improving.
Bullish crossover is in progress, but at the moment, weak. A potential signal for a short-term upside move.
🎯 Key Levels
Resistance: 5,300 (Prior Week Base Levels) to 5,384 (Prior Swing Support) is current price zone of interest
Support: Recent low just above 5,000 is critical — a break below should continue the downtrend.
🧨 Volatility Outlook
TVC:VIX falls well within the 'Risk off Zone'.
TVC:VIX spiked to 52.33 before receding to its current 29.65
📈 Macro/Fundamental Analysis
Interpretation:
In high TVC:VIX environment, with Tariff, Fiscal, and Political Uncertainty, price action will likely remain mercurial. This is likely to persist into the foreseeable future.
TVC:DXY Dollar weakness has continued. Likely causes include: Fed Cut Expectations increasing & Decreasing Demand for US treasuries TVC:US10Y . I expect the weakening dollar to persist. All else qual, a weakening dollar is bullish for asset pricing, though, in the face of expect growth challenges, the effect is negated.
I expect US10Y sales to continue to struggle, in the face of inflation risk and rising trade tensions.
Bearish Possibilities:
Expect continued talk about 'firing' the current fed chair. The market should react poorly to these threats if they intensify or become increasingly probable.
Failures on trade talks with major trading partners.
Bullish Possibilities:
Improved earnings or earnings guidance, though, I expect this is unlikely.
Successes on trade talks and deals with major trading partners.
Fed Rate cuts - though - i expect this is highly unlikely.
Fed QE - thought - i expect this is highly unlikely in the short term, barring an explosion in TVC:US10Y yields.
📆 Economic Calendar / Earnings Schedule
Econ Calendar: Relatively Light Next Week
Thursday - 830AM - Initial Jobless Claims
Thursday - 830AM - Durable Goods
Friday - 10AM - Michigan Consumer and Inflation Expectations
Notable Earnings Calendar:
Verizon NYSE:VZ - Tuesday
Lockhead NYSE:LMT - Tuesday
Ratheon NYSE:RTX - Tuesday
Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA - Tuesday
Boeing NYSE:BA - Wednesday
Google NASDAQ:GOOG - Thursday
Intel NASDAQ:INTC - Thursday
Pepsi NASDAQ:PEP - Thursday
Proctor and Gamble NYSE:PG - Thursday
T-Mobile NASDAQ:TMUS - Thursday
🔍 Summary
🔻 Trend: Bearish below 50- and 200-day SMAs and recent 'Death Cross'.
🧩 Momentum: Turned bullish, with flat to fading strength.
🧠 Tactics:
Short Term: Expect Ranging with slight bullish upside. Likely good day trading environment.
Medium Term: Dead-cat bounce or Early Reversal ...? Watch for:
Daily Close above the local swing high's or Low's
If we breakout higher, look for further Daily Rejection at the moving averages (especially SMA 50).
If we breakdown lower, look for a retest of the 5000 psychological support, down to, 4832.50.
ES - Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileOn ES , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 5075.00.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
Uptrend and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
Absorption dayAfter the S&P break to the downside on the daily chart, the expectation is that on Thursday the market will trade inside the range of Wednesday's action as the market absorbs what happened with fundamental comments on Wednesday. New bearish news could push the market lower but that is not expected for Thursday.
April 11th Trade Journal & Market AnalysisApril 11th Trade Journal & Market Analysis
EOD accountability report: +1566.50
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: going thru Flu symptoms
**Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System **
12:08 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
1:00 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (2x Signal)
Today was a very choppy for the early part of the day, tested pre market lows and almost broke it because of consumer sentiment.
We eventually bounce and started moving upward toward the 5 min and 10 min resistance , and eventually broke out with the market structure flipping bullish at 12:08, we went back for a 1 min MOB backtest and pushed up further.
Monday plan; look for back to support as noted on the video
April 14th Trade Journal & Market AnalysisApril 14th Trade Journal & Market Analysis
EOD accountability report: +565
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: recovering, cant seem to get over 6 hour sleep.
**Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System **
9:30 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (triple sell signal)
9:41 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3
11:02 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
12:20 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (Triple buy signal)
2:11 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
3:20 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (triple sell again)
Today traded inside the zone, tested the 10min MA from the other day, held very well and bounced strong.
Bot alerts were on fire today.
Tuesday plan: Look for a backtest to support again on 48 min and push up to the MOB.
SPX Lulling Market to Sleep Before a Big Move to 4211It looks like a triangle.. but it's not. ES showing impulsive moves lower after an ABC move to the upside petered out.
Those looking for triangle-like continuation of a rally may be holding on for dear life this week. Nonetheless, look for the upside to 5450+ and complete the right side of a diamond structure when futures open.
April 17th Trade Journal & Stock Market AnalysisApril 17th Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis
EOD accountability report: +816.25
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: Testing out new supplement, Sleep has been low, but energy level has been good. (testing out Ocimum tenuiflorum for sleep and adding Ginkgo Biloba W/LM)
**Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System**
9:29 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
11:05 AM VXAlgo YM X1 Buy Signal
11:47 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
3:30 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
3:40 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (double signal)
**Monday plan--> **watch for rejection of 48M Resistance for breakdown to 1D MOB
April 15th Trade Journal & Stock Market AnalysisEOD accountability report: +940
Sleep: 8 hour, Overall health: Good
**Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System **
9:30 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! - easy money
10:10 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal - easy money
1:02 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! - easy money
1:40 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (triple signal) -a bit tuff but still work out
3:30 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (double signal) - a bit tuff but still work out
**Wed plan: ** Watch for 48M support or 195M support to tag around 5200-5300s.
Neutral zone marketThe structure in the S&P for the last couple days implies a neutral zone market. This means that both buyers and sellers are present with no one group being dominant. The expectation is for a sideways move until we get fundamental information primarily tariff information that will give the market an excuse to rally or break.