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Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures (Jun 2026)Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures (Jun 2026)Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures (Jun 2026)

Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures (Jun 2026)

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MESM2026 trade ideas

ES Update, 104% China Tariff Edition, lol.As you can see, MFI hit overbought before open. Unfortunately, I didn't have time to post before work. Stupid algos pumping before bad news again, they even pumped China, so I bought some MCHI (China ETF) puts in the morning. WHy would anyone pump CHina before a tariff announcement?!?! I don't see Xi or Trump backing down, if anyone falters, it'll be COngress. The issue is that it will take a 2/3 majority in both houses to override a veto, so they probably won't be able to muster up enough support until next week at the earliest Then Trump can sit on the bill for 10 days before he vetos. There's not a parts supplier in China that's gonna pay 104% tariff, which means stop ship on everything. And we're looking at bare minimum of 11 days before tariffs can be repealed, probably gonna be at least 3 weeks. Even at that pace, it's gonna create a shipping backlog, empty shelves, parts shortage, and temporary layoffs at manufacturing plants just like COVID did. What's this all mean? IF YOU NEED ANYTHING THAT'S MADE IN CHINA, GO SHOPPING RIGHT NOW! I'm not kidding. It may cause issues even with stuff like frozen dinners because China makes all of the containers. ANyways, the algos screwed up again. RSI probably goes deep into oversold again. We get a huge ass bounce when COngress gets their shit together in a week or two. Even then, some companies will have lingering effect because I can guarantee there will be a shipping backlog when the tariff is lifted.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
23
ES UpdateTrump is obviously gaming the market, so there's really no point in even looking at charts or indicators, lol. It's hard to take him seriously now. The gap will fill, maybe as soon as tomorrow morning. Then we get another huge pump sometime within the next week when he repeals the China tariffs and sets then to 10% or something. Just hold your favorite stock and wait it out. I bet he exempts AAPL, auto parts, and whatever else from the China tariffs. GM and even PDD went up today in anticipation. I had a few GM puts, saw the jump, tried to climb on as fast as possible. I prioritized my retirement account ahead of my options play, but I made a little money, hopefully more the next few days, lol. Expecting a melt up, then a jump when he caves in to China, no shorting anything for the next week until everything stabilizes. NVDA and TSLA still have other issues aside from tariffs, so those will be targets. Gotta let the short squeeze complete first, I have a 3 day rule. Wait 3 days, lol.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
21
ES UpdateI won't be able to post before work, so here's an early update.... RSI is barely touching oversold, I expect it to go a bit further, but don't expect a tank. Probably a double bottom because the algos want their money back, lol. Daily and weekly RSI also oversold, and the algos appear to be looking strictly at indicators and not the news. They freakin pumped right before tariff announcements TWICE, lol. SO possible reversal tomorrow afternoon or Thu. Keep an eye out, they'll pump the market every time a country makes a deal. That's my prediction...
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
26
S&P 500 - Elliott Wave Bearish BreakdownThis S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES) daily chart highlights a potential bearish Elliott Wave structure following rejection from a key resistance zone. - The market encountered strong resistance near the 5,600 level, leading to a sharp decline. - A five-wave impulsive bearish structure appears to be forming, with Waves (1) and (2) already completed. - If this pattern continues, Waves (3), (4), and (5) could drive prices lower, targeting key support levels in the coming weeks. Traders should watch for confirmation of Wave (3) acceleration, as it is typically the strongest wave in an impulse. A break below recent lows could confirm further downside, while a strong bounce from lower levels may indicate a correction or trend reversal. Risk management remains crucial, as volatility can increase during corrective and impulsive waves. Keep an eye on macroeconomic factors and technical confluences for additional confirmation.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by wdstrades
17
ES 3hr UpdateRSI hit overbought so we got a dip. We may get another dip when MFI gets overbought today, or just a bigger dip if it hits overbought premarket. Will we get a melt up instead? I dunno. Keep in mind that China still has tariffs, but also keep in mind he's going to do exemptions. So that rules out shorting AAPL or any sector like auto. We will get another huge pop when he pauses China tariffs eventually. Also, at this point the futures gap fill is inevitable. Also, companies like NVDA and TSLA had issues even without the tariffs, so there's that as well. They probably overshot the target because of teh short squeeze. I've got a PCRA trade that I posted yesterday. Other than that, I think I will just go back to playing the 3hr indicator, and buy when RSI or MFI hit oversold. Not gonna short anything until next week. Looks like GM is gonna lose half the gain from yesterday because they use Chinese parts, but Trump also said he'll do exemptions so not gonna play it. Also, EVERYTHING GOES UP in a major short squeeze, even garbage like FCEL. When he makes a China deal, you'll be hosed if you're short. PDD went up yesterday and premarket even though Trump hit China with 125%. I can't predict what Trump will do with China, so just pay attention to the news.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
11
ES 3hr UpdateNo idea what this market is doing, it wants the gap fill but can't figure out a way to get there, lol. It did fill the gap up from last night though. Indicators are neutral, Powell speaks Wed, ECB meeting premarket Thu so I dumped my gold premarket today. Basically a wash trade, I wish I had figured out what was going on sooner. If ECB cuts rates, you'll see the EUro drop, which could cause a drop in gold in US dollars. Also, Euro gapped up last night which scared me, because that gap also needs to fill. All cash, can't keep up with the news while I'm working. I saw automakers got an exemption though, lol. We'll see a gap up Thu if ECB cuts rates, so staying cash, not shorting anything. I gotta fly out to WA to get my house ready for sale next week, might just take a break unless I see something. WIth Trump in office, teh market is bound to go oversold again, might just wait until I sell my house before resuming trading. We'll see.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
5
The Trump PatternWhen Donald Trump took office in 2017, the U.S. stock market experienced dramatic fluctuations—marked by steep declines followed by eventual rebounds. This pattern, which we'll call the "Trump Pattern," repeated itself during his presidency and is now emerging again as a point of interest for investors. While the specific causes of these market shifts varied, key factors—particularly tariffs, inflation concerns, and Federal Reserve (FED) actions—played critical roles in the market's rise and fall during Trump’s presidency. The Trump Pattern: The Market Fall and Recovery 🏁 1. The Start of the Trump Presidency (2017) When Donald Trump was elected in 2016, the market responded with a combination of excitement and uncertainty. Initially, the market surged due to tax cut expectations, deregulation, and optimism about a business-friendly administration. But as Trump's presidency fully began in January 2017, concerns over trade wars and tariff policies began to dominate investor sentiment. The market initially dipped after Trump began pursuing a protectionist trade agenda, especially with China. As concerns about tariffs escalated, stock markets reacted negatively to potential trade wars. 💶 2. The Tariff Crisis of 2018 The first major example of the "Trump Pattern" emerged in 2018 when Trump began implementing tariffs, particularly on Chinese imports, and announced new tariffs on steel and aluminum. This caused major market disruptions. The S&P 500 fell dramatically during this period, dropping by as much as 8.6% from its February peak in 2019. Companies that relied heavily on international trade, like Apple, General Motors, and Ford, experienced significant stock price declines. In fact, Apple’s stock fell 9.5% on days when new tariffs were announced, as their costs for manufacturing overseas rose. The uncertainty surrounding the global economy, combined with rising tariffs, created fears of a trade war, leading to sharp market declines. 📈 3. Market Recovery: FED Rate Cuts and Tax Cuts Despite the tariff-induced volatility, the market didn’t stay down for long. After significant market falls, the Federal Reserve (FED) began implementing interest rate cuts to combat slowing economic growth. These actions helped stabilize the market and even fueled a rebound. FED rate cuts made borrowing cheaper for consumers and businesses, stimulating economic activity and boosting investor confidence. Additionally, tax cuts, a cornerstone of Trump’s economic policy, provided further support, particularly for corporations. As a result, after the initial market drop in 2018 and early 2019, the market rebounded, continuing to climb as investors reacted positively to these fiscal and monetary policies. 🎯 The 2024 and 2025 "Trump Pattern" Emerges Again Fast forward to 2024 and 2025, and we’re seeing echoes of the "Trump Pattern" once again. New tariffs, introduced in 2025, have reignited concerns about a trade war. These tariffs, particularly on Chinese imports, have once again caused market volatility. The stock market has fallen in recent months due to concerns about these tariffs and the impact they might have on global trade. For example, when new tariffs were introduced in early 2025, the market saw a sharp sell-off, with the S&P 500 falling by over 1.8% in a single day. Companies that rely on international trade, like Tesla and Ford, have seen their stock prices drop in response to concerns about increased production costs. The broader market decline, much like in 2018, was driven by fears that tariffs could slow down the global economy and hurt corporate profits. However, there is optimism that the same pattern will unfold, where the market eventually recovers after these initial drops. ⚠️ 4. FED Rate Cuts Again? As inflation concerns persist, the Federal Reserve is likely to step in once again. Like previous cycles, we expect the FED to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy. This would be aimed at reducing borrowing costs, encouraging investment, and helping businesses weather the impact of higher tariffs and global uncertainty. The FED’s actions are typically a key driver of market recovery in the "Trump Pattern." Investors have come to expect that a market downturn triggered by political or economic disruptions can be offset by the FED’s supportive monetary policies. ⚖️ Navigating the Trump Pattern: What Should Investors Do? The "Trump Pattern" highlights that during periods of heightened uncertainty, especially due to trade policies like tariffs, the market will often experience short-term declines followed by long-term recovery. Here are a few strategies investors might want to consider: Stay Diversified : During periods of volatility, having a diversified portfolio can help cushion against the risks posed by market swings. Invest in Domestic Companies : Companies that rely less on international supply chains might fare better during periods of trade policy changes and tariff uncertainty. Focus on Growth : Once the initial market decline subsides, look for sectors that stand to benefit from a recovering economy, such as tech or consumer discretionary stocks. Look for Inflation Hedges : Given the potential for inflation, consider investments that tend to perform well during these times, such as real estate or commodities like gold. 📝 Conclusion: The Trump Pattern in Action The "Trump Pattern" demonstrates how the market tends to react in cycles during the early months of each presidency. Typically, the market falls at the start due to the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trade policies, particularly tariffs. However, after these initial drops, the market often rebounds thanks to FED rate cuts and other policies aimed at stimulating the economy. Looking ahead to 2025, we're already seeing signs of this pattern in action as tariffs are back on the table and market volatility has followed. However, history suggests that patience might pay off. Once the FED steps in and cuts rates, a market rebound is likely, following the same trend we saw in 2017-2019.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by CandelaCharts
2
SPY Futures April 2025Trump imposes new tariffs on imports from China, investors panic, and the market chops. A good level to look at on SPY Futures for the next couple weeks is 5528.00. I believe a break upwards can give bullish investors some confidence , while a rejection could bring even more downside. If we break upwards, possibly revisiting 5840.00, we're going to have to see if we can break that level and get back to the all time high. If we reject and price falls, the level to look at is 4833.00. A break of that support could mean a lot more downside in the coming months. But we're going to have to be patient allow Trump vs China to unfold.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by groovysushi27
1
ES UpdateLike I said over the weekend, the algos are definitely on, explains the whipsaw Fri and today. Everything is oversold so they had to pump it and try to get their money back. Problem is, Trump is gonna announce 50% tariff on China tomorrow. CHina ain't backing down, not their style. QUote: "Therefore, if China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th." Source: www.cbsnews.com Might have to short something tomorrow morning, lol.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
7
Understanding MACD In TradingThe Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator that measures the relationship between two moving averages of an asset’s price. Developed by Gerald Appel in the late 1970s, MACD is designed to provide insights into both trend strength and momentum. Unlike simple moving averages, which merely smooth price data over a specific period, MACD goes a step further by identifying when short-term momentum is shifting in relation to the long-term trend. This makes it a valuable tool for traders looking to enter or exit positions at optimal points. 1. Why is MACD important in trading? Trend Confirmation: Identifies whether an asset is in an uptrend or downtrend. Momentum Strength: Measures how strong a price movement is. Reversal Signals: Detects potential changes in trend direction. Entry and Exit Points: Helps traders determine when to buy and sell. 2. MACD Components The MACD Line: Identifies whether an asset is in an uptrend or downtrend. This line is derived by subtracting the 26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA. When the MACD Line is positive, it indicates bullish momentum; when negative, it suggests bearish momentum. The Signal Line: Measures how strong a price movement is. A 9-period EMA of the MACD Line. It smooths out MACD fluctuations, making it easier to identify crossovers. The Histogram: Detects potential changes in trend direction. The difference between the MACD Line and the Signal Line. A positive histogram suggests increasing bullish momentum, while a negative histogram suggests growing bearish momentum. 3. MACD Formula The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is one of the most widely used technical indicators in trading. It helps traders identify trends, momentum shifts, and potential buy or sell opportunities by analyzing the relationship between two moving averages. By calculating the difference between a short-term and long-term exponential moving average (EMA), MACD provides insight into market direction and strength. //@version=6 indicator("MACD Indicator", overlay=false) // MACD parameters shortLength = 12 longLength = 26 signalLength = 9 // Calculate MACD macdLine = ta.ema(close, shortLength) - ta.ema(close, longLength) signalLine = ta.ema(macdLine, signalLength) histogram = macdLine - signalLine // Plot MACD components plot(macdLine, color=color.blue, title="MACD Line") plot(signalLine, color=color.red, title="Signal Line") plot(histogram, color=color.green, style=plot.style_columns, title="Histogram") Explanation: Short EMA (12-period) and Long EMA (26-period) are calculated. The MACD Line is the difference between these EMAs. A Signal Line (9-period EMA of MACD Line) is calculated. The Histogram represents the difference between the MACD Line and the Signal Line. 4. Interpreting MACD signals MACD Crossovers A crossover occurs when the MACD Line and Signal Line intersect: Bullish Crossover: When the MACD Line crosses above the Signal Line, it signals a potential uptrend and a buying opportunity. Bearish Crossover: When the MACD Line crosses below the Signal Line, it suggests a potential downtrend and a selling opportunity. MACD Divergences Divergences occur when MACD moves in the opposite direction of the price, signaling a potential reversal: Bullish Divergence: If price makes lower lows, but MACD makes higher lows, it suggests weakening downward momentum and a possible bullish reversal. Bearish Divergence: If price makes higher highs, but MACD makes lower highs, it signals weakening upward momentum and a potential bearish reversal. Histogram Interpretation The MACD histogram visually represents momentum shifts: When bars are increasing in height, momentum is strengthening. When bars shrink, it suggests momentum is weakening. Zero Line Crossings The MACD crossing the zero line indicates momentum shifts: MACD crossing above zero → Bullish trend initiation. MACD crossing below zero → Bearish trend initiation. 5. Trend & Momentum Analysis Traders use MACD to confirm trends and analyze market momentum: If MACD Line is above the Signal Line, an uptrend is in place. If MACD Line is below the Signal Line, a downtrend is dominant. A widening histogram confirms strong momentum in the trend’s direction. A narrowing histogram warns of potential trend weakening. MACD works best in trending markets and should be used cautiously in sideways markets. 6. MACD Based Trading Strategies Entry Strategies Buy when MACD Line crosses above the Signal Line in an uptrend. Sell when MACD Line crosses below the Signal Line in a downtrend. Exit Strategies Exit long trades when a bearish crossover occurs. Close short positions when a bullish crossover occurs. Position Management If the histogram is expanding, traders can hold positions. If the histogram is contracting, it may signal weakening momentum. 7. Limitations of MACD While MACD is a powerful tool, traders must consider: It lags behind price movements (since it is based on moving averages). It can generate false signals in choppy markets. Customization is required to suit different trading styles. 8. Optimization Optimizing MACD for Different Market Conditions Day Traders & Scalpers: Use faster settings like (5, 13, 6) for quick signals. Swing Traders: Stick with the default (12, 26, 9) setting for balanced signals. Long-Term Investors: Use slower settings like (24, 52, 18) for a broader market perspective. 9. Key Takeaways MACD is a momentum and trend-following indicator that helps traders identify market direction, strength, and potential reversals. Since MACD is a lagging indicator, it may generate false signals, especially in sideways markets. Combining MACD with RSI, moving averages, and volume indicators improves accuracy and reduces risk. MACD should be used alongside risk management strategies and other confirmation tools for best results. MACD remains one of the most effective technical indicators, widely used across different markets. It helps traders identify trends, confirm momentum, and optimize trade entries and exits. However, it should always be used with additional tools to minimize false signals. Stay sharp, stay ahead, and let’s make those moves. Until next time, happy trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by CandelaCharts
14
S&P - What will happen next for the S&P?The S&P 500 has been dropping quickly after Trump's tariff policies were announced. It fell from 5750 to 4900, and is now at 5053, all in just a few days. This is a sharp decline, and sellers are clearly in control right now. However, after such a big drop, it's common to see a short-term bounce before the market continues to fall. There is strong resistance between 5400 and 5500, which lines up with the golden pocket (a key level in technical analysis). This could make it harder for the S&P to rise past these levels. Looking further down, there is another strong support area between 4500 and 4600. This level also matches the golden pocket on the daily chart, making it an important point for potential support. If the market keeps falling, we could see this area tested before any significant recovery. Right now, it seems likely that the market will keep going lower. My main expectation is that we’ll get a small rally first, which could trick some traders into thinking the market is recovering, before continuing down. However, with all the uncertainty around the news and policies right now, it's also possible the market could keep dropping sharply without much of a rally. Keep a close eye on the markets and stick to good risk management practices. If you don’t, it could really hurt your portfolio. Stay alert and adjust your strategy as things change. Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Youriverse
29
ES - Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileOn ES , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 5075.00. There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again. Uptrend and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade. Happy trading Dale
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Trader_Dale
ES Premarket Update3hr MFI is headed quickly to oversold, and the dollar index is bouncing back a little. FUtures are also green. I expect the market to bounce up when MFI gets oversold, so possibly a gap up which sells off then market goes back up? Gold trade is on hold until currency direction is determined. The dollar will eventually break though, so holding the small position I bought yesterday morning..... that way I'll watch gold. We'll see where that goes.... US dollar is oversold on 3hr and daily charts, so there's a chance it will bounce back up.... or maybe it just goes into full tank mode and ignores indicators. Hard market to judge.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
4
S&P 500 Testing Key SupportThis analysis aims to provide you with a clear understanding of the market’s direction and potential inflection points on the Weekly timeframe. Bearish/Bullish Trend Analysis Trend Condition: Bullish Trends: 3 Bearish Trends: 11 Overview: The market shows a predominant bearish outlook with 11 trend lines indicating a downward movement. However, there are 3 bullish trends emerging, suggesting some areas of resistance or potential reversal points. Price Action and Momentum Zones Current Price and Change: Currently, the S&P 500 Futures are at 4,979.75, down 117.00 points or approximately -2.30%. Market Behavior: This week’s sharp decline is consistent with the dominant bearish trend but the presence of a few bullish lines hints at possible undercurrents of recovery or resistance. Momentum Zones: The index has recently entered a lower price band, testing significant support levels that could dictate the next movements within this bearish trend. Fibonacci Retracement Levels Current Position Relative to Levels: The futures are hovering around the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Key Fibonacci Levels: 23.6% → 5,537.68 38.2% → 5,148.66 50.0% → 4,834.25 61.8% → 4,519.84 Analysis: The proximity to the 50.0% level at 4,834.25 is noteworthy, as this level often acts as a moderate support in downtrends. Remaining around this level could suggest a stabilization or minor corrective rally if buying interest increases. Overall Market Interpretation Despite the downturn this week, the S&P 500 Futures showing some bullish signals could indicate a complex market environment where traders are assessing whether the current levels present buying opportunities or if the bearish trend will persist. Summary The S&P 500 Futures have faced a significant decline early in the trading week. With the market currently testing the 50.0% Fibonacci level, this could be a crucial juncture. The market's next steps will depend heavily on whether it can sustain above this level, potentially leading to a stabilization or a continued descent. Monitoring these Fibonacci levels will be key in predicting the short-term future of the market.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by traderspro_charts