NQ100 → Entering the Danger Zone?📈 1. Technical Context (Price Action & Structure)
The daily chart shows a strong bullish continuation from the 17,350 area, with price now extending toward the 22,000 USD zone.
We are currently within a weekly/monthly supply, with:
Mild RSI divergence in overbought conditions
Temporary rejection at 22,050–22,200
A potential liquidity sweep above highs before distribution or pullback
The monthly structure shows a strong swing low that may serve as anchor for a future reversal
🧠 2. COT Report – Commitment of Traders (as of June 3)
Commercials (Smart Money):
+4,041 long | +3,320 short → Net +1,455 → hedging phase, not trend expansion
Non-Commercials (Speculators):
–2,237 long | +125 short → net exposure reduction
Open Interest increasing → new positions building, but no extreme imbalance
📌 Conclusion: Tactical neutrality, slight bullish lean from commercials.
📆 3. Seasonality
June has been historically bullish, especially in the past 2 years (+700 pts avg)
10Y average still leans bullish
⚠️ September is a clear seasonal reversal month across all timeframes
📌 Conclusion: Seasonal tailwind through end of June; cyclic reversal risk into Q3.
📰 4. Macro Calendar
High-impact USD week:
CPI – Wed, June 11
PPI – Thu, June 12
These will be critical to:
Validate the disinflation narrative
Set expectations for a Fed cut by Sep/Nov
📌 Conclusion: Expect explosive mid-week volatility — watch for liquidity spikes above 22,000 if CPI surprises.
⚙️ Operational Outlook
✅ Primary scenario (bullish continuation):
🎯 Target: 22,260 → fib extension + structure
❌ Invalid below 21,350
🔄 Alternative scenario (mean reversion):
🔻 Short from 22,050–22,200
🎯 Target: 20,950 → liquidity + FVG zone
🔁 Trigger: weekly engulf or hotter-than-expected CPI
MNQ1! trade ideas
Nasdaq Futures: Tariff Talk, Tech Fatigue Turn TideHaving surged more than 20% from the April lows, we could be nearing a turning point for Nasdaq 100 futures.
Bullish momentum is showing signs of shifting lower, while Wednesday’s inverted hammer candle—on a day when tech stocks were given every excuse to rally thanks to the soft U.S. inflation report and subsequent decline in Treasury yields—warns the rally may be running out of steam.
With Donald Trump talking about setting firm tariff rates for individual nations within the next two weeks, we’re already seeing signs of weakness in futures, bolstering the prospect for a three-candle evening star pattern being completed. Sitting in a rising wedge, directional risks seem to be skewing lower.
If the price breaks and closes beneath wedge support, it would create a setup where shorts could be established with a stop above Wednesday’s high to protect against a resumption of the bullish trend.
21436 is a minor support level that screens as an initial target, although 20800—where the price bounced strongly from on May 23—makes for a more appealing case from a risk-reward perspective.
A push and close above 21969—a minor resistance level established earlier this year—would invalidate the bearish bias.
Good luck!
DS
2025-06-10 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Range is 21500 - 22000 for a week now. Neutral but selling new highs and buying every pullback has been profitable for quite a while now. It will end some day but likely not today. Bulls finally want the 22000 print and after so many tries they still could not print it. It’s painful to watch. Fading the extremes was good for a month now and I have no bigger opinion on where we might close this week. Anything below 21700 would be a huge bear surprise and could mean the bull wedge break to the downside and next target would be 21500.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 21500 - 22000
bull case: Bulls expect 22000 and buy every pullback. Their problem is, that they have tried so so many times now and could still not print it. How many more times will they try? The wedge will break eventually and I highly doubt it will be to the upside. Bulls can not hold long at the highs since pullbacks are 130-500 points big. Look for longs on decent pullbacks once bears give up. Multiple times below 21800 today. When we print 22000, what are the odds of this going higher for 22500 or new ath above 22688? No idea but looking at the wedge and the structure since April, longing momentum makes sense but that’s it.
Invalidation is below 21390.
bear case: Just imagine cpi comes in hot… Bears can only dream. They are doing fine selling new highs and scalping for 100+ points. They are too weak to print lower lows, so don’t bet on them. Once we go below 21700 again, we can look for better targets and market is likely neutral again. Until then, try not to get trapped.
Invalidation is above 22100.
short term: Likely bearish around 21950-22000 for another pullback into 21750/21800. Still expecting 22k to get hit tomorrow. Rough guess: If we move strongly above 22080ish, we could see an acceleration upwards due to short covering from hell but don’t bet on it. Only go with the momentum if it happens.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-05-24: Will update this section more after the coming week but in general the thesis is as for dax. Down over the summer and sideways to up into year end. I don’t think the lows for this year are in.
trade of the day: Longing 21800 was good so many times since Friday.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 6/24/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2025
- PR High: 22217.00
- PR Low: 22065.75
- NZ Spread: 337.75
Key scheduled economic events:
10:00 | CB Consumer Confidence
- Fed Chair Powell Testifies
Session Open Stats (As of 12:35 AM 6/24)
- Session Open ATR: 384.68
- Volume: 45K
- Open Int: 240K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From BA ATH: -2.8% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22096
- Mid: 20383
- Short: 19246
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
2025-06-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaq e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Not even the US President joining a war can start the selling. Truly a special time. Above 22130 there is no reason this can’t test 22300 or higher. Market clearly does not care about the event and the pain trade seems up. Can’t hold bearish thoughts after today’s reversals. Very small chance that if we stay below 22130, bears come around and we test down to 21800 or lower.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 21500 - 22300
bull case: Bulls had the following legs up today: 380, 260, 350 points from swing lows to highs. On such a day, this is as bullish as it gets. They now need to print a higher high and then there is no more obvious reason why we can’t test back up to 22300 or higher.
Invalidation is below 21900.
bear case: Bears vanished after the double bottom in the US session and market closed at the high. Which is worst case for bears. Above 21130 they have to cover and I expect an acceleration upwards. If they somehow come around strongly and we go below 21950, then chances are decent that we can test down to 21800 again. Bears need to sell it early tomorrow or the bear trend line is gone and we could go much higher.
Invalidation is above 22130.
short term: Neutral. Only interested in shorts if we stay below 22130. I still think markets are grossly miss-priced and complacent but for now that thesis is wrong.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-06-22: Daily close below 21500 is my validation for the new bear trend which has the first bigger target at 21000 but I think we will printed below 20000 again this year. Structure is obviously not yet bearish, so don’t be early if you want confirmation and can’t/won’t scale in to shorts higher. Getting into longer term shorts above 21500 seems like the banger trade right now.
trade of the day: Buying literally every dip was good.
NQ: 208th trading session - recapToday was a really good day, because I was just so anxious about my trading future. This sounds a bit stupid but given the fact that I was struggling with my purpose and me having actually being in a relationship now my vision was clouded AF.
Now with my anxiety (a little bit) coming back that means I'm really back on my grind.
I just realised how important this is what I'm doing everyday.
MNQU2025 SELL IDEAMy bias for MNQ this morning with this trade of 2 contracts running. Would like to see price trade lower to 9:30am lows.
What do you guys think will happen? Will post results of the trade below.
Thanks for watching! Give a like if you enjoyed the explanation and a comment on what you'd like me to share with you guys about my trading journey.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 6/23/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2025
- PR High: 21787.00
- PR Low: 21566.75
- NZ Spread: 491.75
Key scheduled economic events:
09:45 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
- S&P Global Services PMI
10:00 | Existing Home Sales
Open weekend gap down ~0.33%
Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM 6/23)
- Session Open ATR: 382.81
- Volume: 38K
- Open Int: 234K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From BA ATH: -4.8% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22096
- Mid: 20383
- Short: 19246
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
#202525 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-mini futuresGood Day and I hope you are well.
comment: Full bear mode. Below 21600 we see 21000 come real fast and bulls can kiss 22000+ goodbye for months or years. Market has not found enough buyers above 22000 for a month and we not got another potential huge risk-off event which will likely be too much for big institutions to ignore. Print above 22000/22100 means I am wrong.
Last week my bearish thesis was that we go down from last Friday but since market did not touch the daily ema for so long, we got another week sideways. Now bears got help from orange face and I can not see them coming back from this as well.
current market cycle: trading range - daily close below 21500 confirms my thesis
key levels for next week: 20900 - 21800
bull case: Still no close below daily ema but markets failed to print higher highs for 2 weeks now. If we gap down and print below 21500, you can not hold long on hope. Got nothing for the bulls unless they print above 22000 again and even then we can only expect sideways.
Invalidation is below 21500
bear case: I have laid out my bear case for the markets enough by now. I see a move below 21500 as confirmation and especially a daily close below. 21000 is the next obvious target before we can expect a pullback. 20400ish would be my next target below since that is the big bull gap close.
Invalidation is above 22000/22100
short term: Full bear mode. Expecting a big futures gap down on open and a daily close below 21500 if not 21000, which would mean we are in W1 which could be a spike and then only move sideways before W3 comes around. I have drawn a probably path down over the next weeks.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-06-22: Daily close below 21500 is my validation for the new bear trend which has the first bigger target at 21000 but I think we will printed below 20000 again this year. Structure is obviously not yet bearish, so don’t be early if you want confirmation and can’t/won’t scale in to shorts higher. Getting into longer term shorts above 21500 seems like the banger trade right now.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 6/20/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2025
- PR High: 21930.25
- PR Low: 21745.75
- NZ Spread: 412.0
Key scheduled economic events:
08:30 | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Session Open Stats (As of 1:05 AM 6/20)
- Session Open ATR: 377.21
- Volume: 155K
- Open Int: 230K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From BA ATH: -4.2% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22096
- Mid: 20383
- Short: 19246
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Trade Idea: Nasdaq Q2 Premium Rejection | Mother of HTFNQ is showing early signs of macro exhaustion after rallying deep into Q2 premium territory and failing to hold above it. A key swing high was formed on June 13, in perfect confluence with:
🔻 Q2 0.75 level
🟥 Quarterly Premium Zone
📉 Bond market divergence (ZB1! failed to confirm ZF1!/ZN1! strength)
🗣️ (Not a bond expert, just observing behavior)
This type of confluence has historically preceded liquidity draws back to EQ or even discount levels.
📐 Levels I’m Watching
Q1 Mid (~20,975): Strong magnet if we break lower
Q2 EQ (~19,975): Next likely draw if structure shifts
MOOD (~21,460): Holding above this pauses deeper sell bias
Q2 Premium Zone (22,300–22,500): Rejection zone and CPI swing high (June 11-13)
Discount Block (18,300–17,500): Long-term liquidity void if momentum builds
❌ Invalidation
NQ reclaims and holds above 22,300–22,500
⚠️ Disclaimer
This is NOT financial advice. All content shared is speculative and intended for educational or entertainment purposes only. Futures trading carries significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions.