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Micro Gold Futures (Feb 2027)

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MGCG2027 trade ideas

Bullish Gold Trajectory and Fundamental Analysis of XAU/USDThe gold market (XAU/USD) has been exhibiting strong bullish momentum, as evidenced by the price patterns and macroeconomic conditions. Bullish Price Trajectory: Historical Patterns The attached chart highlights two distinct bullish patterns in gold's price movement: 1. Pattern 1 (July 18, 2024 – October 30, 2024) Initial Price: $2,394 Closing Price: $2,762 Percentage Increase: Approximately 15.37% This pattern reflects a steady upward movement within a defined bullish channel. 2. Pattern 2 (January 7, 2025 – March 14, 2025) Initial Price: $2,706 Anticipated Closing Price (March 14): $3,100 Applying the same percentage increase from Pattern 1 to Pattern 2 predicts a potential price of $3,121.96, suggesting further upside. Argument for Repetition of Pattern The market structure in Pattern 2 closely mirrors that of Pattern 1, with consistent higher highs and higher lows. The current price trajectory remains within the bullish channel, reinforcing the likelihood of continued upward momentum. Fundamental Drivers Supporting Bullish Gold Prices Gold's bullish outlook is supported by several macroeconomic and geopolitical factors: 1. Safe-Haven Demand Economic Uncertainty: Persistent economic instability, including geopolitical tensions (e.g., wars in Gaza and Ukraine) and global trade disputes, has increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Market Sentiment: Consumer confidence has been declining due to inflation fears and policy uncertainty, prompting investors to hedge risks by buying gold. 2. Central Bank Accumulation Central banks worldwide have been aggressively buying gold to diversify reserves amid geopolitical risks and concerns about fiat currency stability. This trend provides strong support for gold prices. 3. Easing Monetary Policy Recent data shows U.S. inflation easing to 2.8% year-on-year in February 2025, down from 3% in January. This has fueled expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it more attractive to investors. 4. Weakening U.S. Dollar A weaker U.S. dollar often boosts gold prices as it becomes cheaper for international buyers. Current monetary policies and fiscal challenges in the U.S., including rising debt levels, are likely to put downward pressure on the dollar. 5. Inflation Hedge With persistent inflationary pressures globally, gold continues to serve as a reliable hedge against inflation. Analysts expect this trend to persist through 2025. Technical Analysis Supporting Bullish Outlook 1. Support Levels The chart shows that gold has rebounded strongly from a well-defined support region around $2,600–$2,700. This region aligns with prior consolidation zones, indicating strong buyer interest. 2. Moving Averages Gold prices remain above key moving averages (e.g., EMA-65), signaling sustained upward momentum. 3. Oscillator Signals The Stochastic Oscillator indicates that prices are rebounding from oversold levels, confirming renewed bullish momentum. The combination of technical indicators and fundamental drivers strongly supports a bullish trajectory for gold prices in the near term: Historical price patterns suggest that the current bullish channel could push prices beyond $3,100 by mid-March. Macroeconomic factors such as easing inflation, central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and monetary policy shifts create a favorable environment for further upside. Given these conditions, investors and traders should remain optimistic about gold's performance in 2025 while closely monitoring key support levels and macroeconomic developments.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by SupertradeOfficial
1
Gold inertia accelerates towards 3000 markAfter gold broke a new high overnight, it further increased to around 2990, and the daily line finally closed with a big bald sun. The previous sideways squat gave the bulls sufficient power, strong kinetic energy and fast speed, and the closing price was high at the end of the day, indicating that the strong trend will continue, and there is still room for further upward movement. In the 4H cycle, after breaking through the previous high pressure of 2956, the inertia of rushing up caused the indicators to deviate slightly. In the white market, we will first look at the correction space for the decline, and then look at further upward movement after the correction. The top and bottom support below is around 2956, and the 1H cycle support is at 2967. In terms of operation, we will continue to treat it as a long-term idea, and then gradually look at the 3000 mark on the top. Do not blindly guess the top and empty. Operation suggestion: Buy gold near 2967-68, stop loss at 2960, look at 2981, 3000!
COMEX:GC1!Long
by JosephChristian
2
Gold Above $3,000 and MoreAccording to the World Gold Council, more than 600 tons of gold — valued at around $60 billion — have been transported into vaults in New York. Why are they doing that? Since Donald Trump election in November, there is around $60 billion worth of gold that has flowed into a giant stockpile in New York. The reason why physical gold is flowing into the US is because traders are afraid Trump might put tariffs on gold. Gold Futures & Options Ticker: GC Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 per troy ounce = $10.00 Micro Gold Futures & Options Ticker: MGC Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 er troy ounce = $1.00 1Ounce Gold Futures Ticker: 1OZ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 per troy ounce = $0.25 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow
Behind the Curtain: Unveiling Gold’s Economic Catalysts1. Introduction Gold Futures (GC, MGC and 1OZ), traded on the CME market, are one of the most widely used financial instruments for hedging against inflation, currency fluctuations, and macroeconomic uncertainty. As a safe-haven asset, gold reacts to a wide range of economic indicators, making it crucial for traders to understand the underlying forces driving price movements. By leveraging machine learning, specifically a Random Forest Regressor, we analyze the top economic indicators influencing Gold Futures on daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. This data-driven approach reveals the key catalysts shaping GC Futures and provides traders with actionable insights to refine their strategies. 2. Understanding Gold Futures Contracts Gold Futures (GC) are among the most actively traded futures contracts, offering traders and investors exposure to gold price movements with a range of contract sizes to suit different trading strategies. CME Group provides three types of Gold Futures contracts to accommodate traders of all levels: o Standard Gold Futures (GC): Contract Size: Represents 100 troy ounces of gold. Tick Size: Each tick is 0.10 per ounce, equating to $10 per tick per contract. Purpose: Ideal for institutional traders and large-scale hedgers. Margin: Approximately $12,500 per contract. o Micro Gold Futures (MGC): Contract Size: Represents 10 troy ounces of gold, 1/10th the size of the standard GC contract. Tick Size: Each tick is $1 per contract. Purpose: Allows smaller-scale traders to participate in gold markets with lower capital requirements. Margin: Approximately $1,250 per contract. o 1-Ounce Gold Futures (1OZ): Contract Size: Represents 1 troy ounce of gold. Tick Size: Each tick is 0.25 per ounce, equating to $0.25 per tick per contract. Purpose: Provides precision trading for retail participants who want exposure to gold at a smaller contract size. Margin: Approximately $125 per contract. Keep in mind that margin requirements vary through time as market volatility changes. 3. Daily Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators Gold Futures respond quickly to short-term economic fluctuations, and three key indicators play a crucial role in daily price movements: o Velocity of Money (M2): Measures how quickly money circulates within the economy. A higher velocity suggests increased spending and inflationary pressure, often boosting gold prices. A lower velocity indicates stagnation, which may reduce inflation concerns and weigh on gold. o Unemployment Rate: Reflects the strength of the labor market. Rising unemployment increases economic uncertainty, often driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Declining unemployment can strengthen risk assets, potentially reducing gold’s appeal. o Oil Import Price Index: Represents the cost of imported crude oil, influencing inflation trends. Higher oil prices contribute to inflationary pressures, supporting gold as a hedge. Lower oil prices may ease inflation concerns, weakening gold demand. 4. Weekly Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators While daily fluctuations impact short-term traders, weekly economic data provides a broader perspective on gold price movements. The top weekly indicators include: o Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP): Measures the number of new jobs added in the U.S. economy each month. Strong NFP numbers typically strengthen the U.S. dollar and increase interest rate hike expectations, pressuring gold prices. Weak NFP figures can drive economic uncertainty, increasing gold’s safe-haven appeal. o Nonfarm Productivity: Represents labor efficiency and economic output per hour worked. Rising productivity suggests economic growth, potentially reducing demand for gold. Falling productivity can signal economic weakness, increasing gold’s appeal. o Personal Spending: Tracks consumer spending habits, influencing economic activity and inflation expectations. Higher spending can lead to inflation, often pushing gold prices higher. Lower spending suggests economic slowing, which may either weaken or support gold depending on inflationary outlooks. 5. Monthly Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators Long-term trends in Gold Futures are shaped by macroeconomic forces that impact investor sentiment, inflation expectations, and interest rates. The most influential monthly indicators include: o China GDP Growth Rate: China is one of the largest consumers of gold, both for investment and jewelry. Strong GDP growth signals robust demand for gold, pushing prices higher. Slower growth may weaken gold demand, applying downward pressure on prices. o Corporate Bond Spread (BAA - 10Y): Measures the risk premium between corporate bonds and U.S. Treasury bonds. A widening spread signals economic uncertainty, increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. A narrowing spread suggests confidence in risk assets, potentially reducing gold’s appeal. o 10-Year Treasury Yield: Gold has an inverse relationship with bond yields since it does not generate interest. Rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, often leading to price declines. Falling yields make gold more attractive, leading to price appreciation. 6. Risk Management Strategies Given gold’s volatility and sensitivity to macroeconomic changes, risk management is essential for trading GC Futures. Key risk strategies may include: Monitoring Global Liquidity Conditions: Keep an eye on M2 Money Supply and inflation trends to anticipate major shifts in gold pricing. Interest Rate Sensitivity: Since gold competes with yield-bearing assets, traders should closely track interest rate movements. Higher 10-Year Treasury Yields can weaken gold’s value as a non-yielding asset. Diversification and Hedging: Traders can hedge gold positions using interest rate-sensitive assets such as bonds or inflation-linked securities. Gold often performs well in times of equity market distress, making it a commonly used portfolio diversifier. 7. Conclusion Gold Futures remain one of the most influential instruments in the global financial markets. By leveraging machine learning insights and macroeconomic data, traders can better position themselves for profitable trading opportunities. Whether trading daily, weekly, or monthly trends, understanding these indicators allows market participants to align their strategies with broader economic conditions. Stay tuned for the next "Behind the Curtain" installment, where we explore economic forces shaping another key futures market. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by traddictiv
Gold is strong and looking for a second rise pointU.S. Treasury bonds rose on the back of risk aversion, and U.S. Treasury yields fell collectively. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.273%; the two-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 3.98%. As the global trade war intensifies and stimulates risk aversion demand, spot gold hit a new record high, approaching the $2,990 mark, and finally closed up 1.9% at $2,988.89 per ounce. Spot silver closed up 2.15% at $33.86 per ounce. In terms of interest rate cuts, the latest CME "Fed Watch" data shows that the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in March is 98.0%, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.0%, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by May is 79.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 19.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 0.4%. U.S. gold continued to rise, breaking through the integer mark of $3,000 per ounce during the session. Note that the volatility of the market is increasing. Gold fluctuated upward on Thursday, with a large positive line recorded at the daily level. The gold bulls performed very strongly and there is a probability of further continuation. Today's operation considers retracement and layout of long orders first, and high short orders as a supplement. Gold plan: Gold retreats above 2966 and stabilizes more, with a target of 2978-2990, and a stop loss of 5 US dollars. If the gold price breaks below $2940/ounce, it will stop the expected bullish trend and push the gold price to regain the main trend of fluctuations. It is expected that the gold price will trade between the support level of $2960/ounce and the resistance level of $3000/ounce today.
COMEX:GC1!
by JosephChristian
1
Use Buy The Dip Like a LynchWhile we can’t say for certain that Merrill Lynch specifically uses VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) in their strategies, one thing is clear: they certainly rely on sophisticated statistical tools and data-driven insights to inform their investment decisions. Merrill Lynch, known for its expertise and successful track record, employs a range of techniques to navigate market fluctuations and identify profitable opportunities. In the fast-paced world of trading, every decision counts. One strategy that has stood the test of time is Buy the Dip (BTD). This approach involves buying assets after they’ve experienced a temporary drop, anticipating that the price will bounce back 📉➡️📈. However, timing the dip correctly can be challenging without accurate data and predictive tools. This article explores how to enhance your Buy the Dip predictions using OHLC Range Map and 4 VWAPs set to Century on TradingView. What is the Buy the Dip Strategy? 🤔 The Buy the Dip (BTD) strategy is simple yet effective. Traders buy an asset after its price has fallen, believing that the dip is temporary and the price will soon rise again 📉➡️📈. The challenge, however, is knowing when the dip is truly an opportunity rather than the start of a longer-term downtrend. This is where data-driven insights come into play. Rather than relying solely on intuition, having the right tools can make all the difference. With the OHLC Range Map, traders can gain a clearer understanding of price action, which helps identify whether a dip is worth buying 💰. Strategies for Predicting Buy the Dip Levels 📍 Spot the Dip Using 4 VWAPS set to Century Spot the Dip Using OHLC Range Map 1. Spot the Dip Using 4 VWAPS set to Century 🎯 Load 4 VWAPs on the chart, and configure them as follow: 1st VWAP: Source - Open, Period - Century 2st VWAP: Source - High, Period - Century 3rd VWAP: Source - Low, Period - Century 4th VWAP: Source - Close, Period - Century When the price approaches key support or resistance zones, such as VWAP bands, particularly for well-established assets like ES, NQ, BTC, NVDA, AAPL, and others, there's a high probability of price reversal. By combining this with price action analysis, you can identify precise entry points for a position with greater accuracy. 2. Spot the Dip Using OHLC Range Map 👀 The OHLC Range Map is a powerful statistical tool designed to plot key Manipulation (M) and Distribution levels over a specific time period. By visualizing these levels, traders can gain insights into market behavior and potential price movements. For example, when analyzing the ES chart, we can observe that the bearish distribution level has already been reached for the next 12 months. This suggests that the market may be poised for a reversal, with the expectation of higher prices in the near future. By identifying these critical levels, traders can anticipate market trends and adjust their strategies accordingly. Key Takeaways 🔍📊 Buy the Dip (BTD): The BTD strategy involves buying assets after a temporary price drop, expecting a price rebound. Enhancing BTD Predictions: Using OHLC Range Map and 4 VWAPs on TradingView improves the accuracy of Buy the Dip predictions. Spotting the Dip with 4 VWAPs: Configuring 4 VWAPs (Open, High, Low, Close) on a chart helps identify key support and resistance zones for potential price reversals. Using the OHLC Range Map: The OHLC Range Map helps pinpoint Manipulation and Distribution levels, aiding in market trend anticipation and timing. Combining Tools for Precision: Integrating the OHLC Range Map and VWAPs with price action analysis allows for more accurate Buy the Dip entry points.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by CandelaCharts
GOLD - WEEKLY SUMMARY 10.3-14.3 / FORECAST🏆 GOLD – 3rd week of the new base cycle (15-20+ weeks). The previous cycle lasted 15 weeks. This may have been the shortest correction to a base cycle low in gold’s history. The reason lies in retrograde Venus, which strongly impacts currencies and, in turn, gold. This year, retrograde Venus crashed the dollar, amplifying gold’s bullish momentum. In my February 23 post, I wrote: "The next extreme forecast is March 3 – the beginning of the retrograde Venus period, which I mentioned in early December. I cautiously assume that March 3 could mark the start of a new base cycle in gold from one of the listed support levels." 👉 I also did not rule out the start of a new cycle in the last post. By then, our long position from the March 3 extreme forecast had already reached breakeven. This extreme forecast reversed gold upward from the extreme forecast level of October 28 (2850 on current futures). ⚠️ Next extreme forecasts for gold: March 17 and March 24.
COMEX:GC1!
by irinawest
Gold Breaks $3,000: Bulls Maintain Strong Control in the MarketGold Trading Update: The $3K Target Achieved Gold has reached the $3,000 target as expected. Technical analysis indicates there's still room for further upside, potentially towards the overbought line of the larger uptrend channel. Notably, we're not seeing any signs of supply entering the market yet. The $3,000 level was our focus, and gold has just hit that today. We've been watching this breakout, which tested on low volume. The upward momentum continues with an extension forming, and volume is now picking up, showing improvement in the trend. What's Next for Gold Trading? The current technical indicators suggest we can still move higher. Gold has been advancing for five to six consecutive days, demonstrating persistent improvement to the upside. Supply on the way up is comparable to the previous strong area we've discussed. What makes this move particularly noteworthy is the absence of significant reactions or pullbacks. The market is showing only very small retracements, indicating bullish strength. This continued strength without substantial corrections suggests the bull run in gold may continue in the near term. Traders should watch for potential targets at the overbought line of the larger uptrend channel as mentioned in our analysis. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Wyckoff_Analytics
Gold - Good Risk/Reward on move potential move lowerGold has pushed up to the $3k mark over the past few days but lacks volume/momentum to hold $3k and move higher from there. The recent market dislocation (Gold Futures vs Spot rate) which resulted in physical gold moving from London vaults to NYC has narrowed so that driver for the price has subsided. Macro Economic turmoil (tariff uncertainty) looks more priced into markets now (although who knows where the bottom is) but gold as safe-haven at current levels looks less enticing for investors. Gap up from circa $2,955- $2,990 with little market structure between makes sharp drop more likely than further drive higher at this point. Any move higher likely to be more subdued rather than sharp which allows for tighter stop loss just above $3k mark with $2.98k the next stop then $2.96k then to $2.95k where it meets stronger market structure. This makes for a 4:1 reward/risk but worth trimming position at weaker (yellow) demand levels/movign stop to break even as/when the move starts playing out. Wait for move higher toward $2.97k to enter on optimal risk/reward ration and expect any move sharply lower to be in London-NY open hours. ***Remember there is no certainty, only probability combined with good risk management***
COMEX:GC1!
by bryncjones
Latest real-time market trend analysisIn the early Asian session, spot gold fluctuated at high levels and is currently trading around $2,986.08 per ounce. Gold prices surged more than $50 on Thursday, hitting a new record high as heightened tariff uncertainty and bets on the Fed's loosening of monetary policy keep gold prices attractive. As geopolitical tensions intensify, investors flock to safe-haven assets, and Zhang Desheng predicts that the average price of gold may reach $3,150 per ounce between July and September. Putin supports a ceasefire but emphasizes details, resulting in an unclear ceasefire outlook, which tends to push up market risk aversion and continue to support gold prices. If Russia-US relations ease or energy cooperation is reached, it may ease safe-haven demand and put pressure on gold prices, and then gold prices will fall back. From the technical perspective of gold: yesterday, gold broke through and rose sharply. Gold is in a rising cycle at the daily level, and this cycle has not yet ended. Under the strong push of continuous positive lines, the gold price will most likely continue to move towards 3000-3010. In the daily K, the stochastic indicator golden cross continues, the indicator golden cross, and the bullish pattern continues. In the 4-hour period, the stochastic indicator golden cross state, the MACD double line adhesion upward, are all main long signals, and the support position of the top and bottom conversion is near 2955. Therefore, the 4-hour period can be treated as a strong and weak conversion point according to the top and bottom conversion of 2955; today, there is no doubt that gold continues to be bullish and long, and there is still room and demand for further rise. Today, gold focuses on the support below at 2980-2970. The gold bulls are very strong and there is a probability of further continuation. The upper side can look at the 3000 mark and the 3010 line. In terms of today's operation, consider retreating to arrange long orders first, and high-altitude as a supplement. Gold operation strategy: Operation suggestion: Buy at 2970-2975, stop loss at 2965, target at 2990-3000
COMEX:GC1!
by JosephChristian
My analysis suggests that the market will hit its all-time high - Bullish Trend Line Support: The chart is displaying a clear bullish trend line support, indicating a strong foundation for further price appreciation. - Golden Cross Formation: The 50-day moving average has crossed above the 200-day moving average, generating a golden cross formation that historically precedes significant price rallies. - Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold: The RSI has dipped into oversold territory, suggesting that the recent pullback has created an attractive buying opportunity. - Bollinger Bands Expansion: The Bollinger Bands are expanding, indicating increasing volatility and setting the stage for a potential price breakout. Fundamental Analysis - Monetary Policy Accommodation: The prevailing accommodative monetary policy environment, characterized by low interest rates and quantitative easing, is likely to continue fueling gold's attractiveness as a store of value.It's not a financial advice
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Mr_jeff82
Amid Price Uncertainty, Gold Straddle Paves the PathYellow metal prices have soared. It has been setting several new all-time highs with futures trading just shy of the USD 3,000/oz level. However, gold has struggled to breach past the crucial mark despite multiple attempts. Some data points suggest that the rally in gold might be losing steam even though fundamental demand drivers remain intact. A nuanced position is required at times like this. Options are tailored to help portfolio managers to position shrewdly in such dicey situations. GEOPOLITICAL RISK IS PERSISTENTLY ELEVATED IN THE NEW WORLD ORDER The Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) remains above one hundred since 2022 which reflects sustained global uncertainty driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions. This trend has persisted for years, with recent tariff-related uncertainty adding fuel to this fire. Data Source: Economic Policy Uncertainty Gold, as a safe haven asset, benefits from these conditions. However, the recent bond selloff has driven Treasury rates higher which could potentially reduce demand for gold as it is a non-yielding asset. CENTRAL BANKS ARE LOADING ON RISING GLOBAL TRADE UNCERTAINTIES Central banks are resuming gold purchases, with January showing an uptick, albeit below the 2024 average. The accelerating pace could signal further momentum, particularly amid rising global trade uncertainty. Data Source: WGC China resumed gold buying in November 2024 following a six-month hiatus. China was one of the largest buyers in 2023 and a repeat of that in 2025 will see a sharp demand spike. LARGE GOLD FLOWS INTO THE US The large financial institutions which serve as counterparties in the futures market have been importing significant quantities of physical gold to the US. The recent flows have surpassed levels seen during COVID pandemic. Physical imports have been driven by fears of a tariff on gold imports. However, the pace of imports has slowed down and is starting to plateau. Looking back at 2020, when similar conditions arose, prices remained stagnant after the sharp rally driven by physical gold imports. The risk of a repeating pattern is even more potent given the strong resistance at the USD 3,000/oz level. A strong driver may be required to allow prices to cross this threshold. Chart Source: WGC Another factor contributing to the temporary physical supply shock is the refining process required before gold reaches the U.S. The physical gold reserves held in London for Good Delivery are the 400-oz bars, which must be refined into 1-kilo bars for CME delivery. This process requires an intermediate stop in Switzerland, adding delays that exacerbate supply constraints. However, as the additional refined metals reach the U.S. in the coming weeks, supply is expected to normalize, potentially putting downward pressure on prices. Chart Source: WGC Other supply stress indicators are easing. Gold leasing rates, which reflect the cost of borrowing for physical use, recently surged above 5%, with near-term borrowing costs rising sharply. Leasing rates have returned to normal, albeit slightly elevated. TECHNICAL SIGNALS POINT TO STRONG MOMENTUM ENCOUNTERING RESISTANCE The summary below suggests a bullish stance in gold but prices are encountering resistance. Over the past month, prices have faced strong resistance at the USD 3,000 level despite a strongly bullish sentiment. The resistance formed after a stunning rally which pushed gold into overbought territory, a correction at this stage is expected. Should momentum fade, gold prices may continue to consolidate between present levels and the 100-day moving average. Gold futures prices formed a death-cross on 5th March 2025 which may fuel a near term price correction. GOLD VOLATILITY IS NOT LOW BUT CAN RISE HIGHER IF CONDITIONS TURNS TENSE Gold Volatility as measured by CME’s Gold CVol printed a high of 50.13 on 18th March 2020 and a low of 8.18 on 3rd May 2019. Presently hovering at 16.35, the implied volatility in gold is not too low but below average with the potential to spike higher should geopolitical or other shocks rock the market. Source: CME CVol HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Fundamentals remain intact and could intensify if tariff and/or geopolitical tensions peak. That said, the phenomenal gold rally is starting to lose shine as it encounters strong resistance with death cross forming on 5th March 2025. Supply shocks that fueled the rally in Feb are now fading. Equity risks are elevated with expensive S&P 500 P/E multiples. Geopolitical and trade risk remain tense. These conditions support a further bullish position in gold. With prices expected to swing either way, portfolio managers are best positioned to have a convex position that gains from sharp moves in either direction. To express this ambivalent view on the path ahead for gold prices, portfolio managers can utilize CME Micro Gold Options to establish a long straddle (combination of long put & long call) that gains from (a) deep pull back in prices (puts gain in value), or (b) sharp rally (calls deliver the gains), and (c) implied volatility expansion (where both puts & calls gain in value). Conversely, this trade will incur losses if prices remain flat and if volatility shrinks. The pay-off of the hypothetical long straddle set up using CME Micro Gold Options June 2025 contract expiring on 27th May 2025 is illustrated below. The long call at a strike of 2,945 will cost USD 84.9 per lot and the long put at the same strike will cost USD 86.9 per lot adding up to USD 171.80 per lot in total premiums. The long straddle will generate positive returns at expiry if the underlying futures prices are (a) above the upper break even point of USD 3,116.80/oz, or (b) below the lower break even point of USD 2,732.20/oz. Source: QuikStrike Strategy Simulator If the underlying futures prices stay within the break-even points, this straddle is exposed to a maximum loss of USD 171.80/lot representing the total premium. Happy Investing. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by mintdotfinance
GOLD | XAUUSD Weekly Market Forecast: Mar 10-14 In this video, we will analyze the GOLD Futures. We'll determine the bias for the upcoming week, and look for the best potential setups. Gold has consolidated for the last half of the previous week. Trading in a ranging market is not recommended! But waiting until there is an obvious sweep of the high or low liquidity pools can give us an indication which side the market will break the consolidation. Patience and a watchful eye will allow us to take advantage of the momentous opportunity. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by RT_Money
/GC Breakdown of Range - Trading PlanContext: Daily - Sell 4H - Sell The market broke out the range for the previous 3 days. There appears to be a lower high made on the HTF daily so market is clearly in a downtrend for gold now. Shorts are more likely to pay. The daily closed beneath 2903 4H Pivot and new supply has entered at 2918. 2904 - Looking to fade any buying going into this level. Price must be firmly underneath this level for shorts. Target 2880 area. A scenario could play out where there has been deviation beneath the range. Then 2904 would be a level to long. However, give the HTF structure this is not something that I would prefer trade. 2880 - watch for acceptance and wait for MSS in 5m/15m to enter into trade. The long trade isn’t ideal but there may still be juice to squeeze. Target back at 2903. However, I’m not too confident on this level holding given the HTF bearishness. If the market blows past level, look to sell any pullbacks into the level. Target 2885.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by CabbageMerchant
1